Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Week 3 Reactions and NFL Week 4 Best Bets

Episode Date: September 27, 2024

Geoff and Matt are back with their Best Bets for the Week 4 of the NFL season.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's friday september 27th i'm jeff schwartz that is matt ford this is jeff schwartz is smarter than you we are covering all the national football league games for the rest of the week we're going through the totals the sides maybe some props we like and we're trying to find five games matt that we like against the spread last week matt three and two back in the winning ways but we're still five and ten i believe for the first couple weeks of the national football league season we like week four though we're gonna get back on track this week buddy um i think i texted you this the other day i've been on college football too i do much better in the nfl as most people do. The grind of a three and two college football weekend is an NFL weekend. I should say it's a lot different than a three and two grind of a college

football weekend. The NFL is a freaking exhausted going three and two, Matt. It is, dude, it's a long season and we just got to get one foot in front of the other. Keep, keep chopping wood. You know, what other cliche can i use uh but yeah good week last week and i felt like the ones i felt like we were close on a few too like you know we just we just need to just stay away from some of these usual culprits that

we always run into but uh and yeah i mean tough beat on the on the justin herbert thing i know that i was sort of giving you some crap about that but you know that one maybe could have gone a few different ways uh sorry i'm we're both distracted by jeff's dog in the background who i think you may have heard shake uh shake out right as jeff introduced the podcast today so we have a third third co-host today um yeah everything we have that hurricane rain right now and so he can't really go outside and he's just he's a german shepherd puppy like he needs constant walks he's already had two walks today i'm gonna give him a third after this he just you know this is what it is but when it rains a lot it's kind of difficult um but we're gonna do matt we're gonna find five

games that we like and we're gonna have hopefully five winners um feels like much going to do, Matt, we're going to find five games that we like. And we're going to have, hopefully, five winners. Feels like much easier to do, you know, the five losses. But we're going to get five wins, Matt. We're going to do it today. And just for reference, we are recording this before the Thursday night football game. So we do not have results of that to talk about. I will say, Matt, and we'll see if I'm right or wrong, I think Dallas wins in covers.

But I'm not wagering on it. Yeah, fair enough. Well, Dak, unbelievable, both as a road favorite, as an NFC East road favorite, and a primetime NFC East road favorite. They've never played, the Cowboys have never had the short week on a Thursday ever. Isn't that strange? They've played the Thursday Thanksgiving game obviously every year, but they haven't had to do, and they've even had Thursday night games that are like the week after Thanksgiving, so they have

never had a Thursday night short week game, which I found really surprising. So we'll see what happens there tonight but that does not matter for this show what matters of course is Sunday slate which starts with uh the Broncos and the Jets the Jets are laying seven and a half points to Bo Nix and the Broncos. Man, I didn't even really consider this game until right now, but I read the line and I'm like, what are we talking about? The Jets are laying seven and a half points? What are we doing?

Yeah, it's the Broncos plus seven and a half, Matt, on this one. I know a sharp group that also hit the Broncos super early in this week, Matt. The Broncos' defense is pretty good. It's not a bad defense. And the Jets' offense has gotten better the last couple weeks, but still very reliant on Garrett Wilson. They lost their right tackle. They have a rookie playing

his first starter right tackle this weekend who's not really a rookie. He's more of a left tackle, Matt. The Broncos got some confidence beating Tampa Bay. They beat a playoff team last week. Tampa Bay, I think we agree, is going to win that division.

Maybe not. Maybe you disagree with me, but it's a legit playoff team. And they won, they played well in that game. Bo Nix looked good. Seven and a half is too many points to me, Matt. I'd be very comfortable with Broncos plus seven and a half

as being one of our five wagers. Interesting. Yeah, me too. I mean, Denver's offense is just an absolute joke, but their defense, once again, Vance Joseph's in his bag. Like they're looking good.

Great secondary. Pass rush has been good. I think this is a pretty smart play. once again vance joseph's in his bag like they're they're looking good great secondary pass rush has been good i think this is this is a pretty smart play i mean i think this is the week where like everybody's going to kind of recalibrate you know their their guesses of how good all these teams are um and i do think the broncos are flying a bit under the radar and they can at least keep this game close i mean the jets like i think they're getting a lot of credit for beating the Patriots on a short week last week and they had come off of a, you know, overtime cross country situation. So I'm fine with Denver.

I feel like we've been, you know, involved in a Denver game every week. Let's keep it rolling. Next up is the 0-3. Thank you very much. Thank you, Jane Daniels commanders. The 0-3 Bengals are four and a half point road favorites in Carolina, man. is the oh and three thank you very much thank you jane daniels commanders the oh and three bangles are uh four and a half point road favorites in carolina man what is this line about i don't i

don't know what to do here so this open i think it's six and a half or let's look ahead line six now it's four and a half i think we stay away matt for a couple reasons okay one is that i thought the panthers would play well against the raiders and they certainly did right then it's sort of that andy dalton bump okay uh which is which was good but now it's sort of settled into reality right there's no film on dalton how's don gonna play in game two like i the the bump is now gone right they're also not playing the raiders they're also oh and three matt they're better than only three their offense has done a good job the defense has been poor they've been injured beat up i'm not playing the Raiders. The Raiders are 0-3, Matt. They're better than 0-3. Their offense has done a good job. The defense has been poor.

They've been injured, beat up. I'm not sure the Panthers are the ones to take advantage of that. I think they should stay away. I think normally we'd be in the Panthers, but we're not getting the best of the number. And I won my money last week on the Panthers, and I'm happy just sort of taking that for what it is. Couldn't agree more.

Love your reasoning. Would be so funny if Andy Dalton ended the Bengals season. That would be an all-time. They're close to being ended anyways. I'm happy just sort of taking that for what it is. I couldn't agree more. Love your reasoning. Would be so funny if Andy Dalton ended the Bengals season. That would be an all-time. They're close to being ended anyways, but sure. They might be cooked. All right, next game, a good one. Playoff rematch.

The Eagles are slight road favorites in Tampa. Tampa is getting a point and a half right now as we record this. Do we feel good about the Buccaneers offense being able to keep up with the Eagles? I don't think the Eagles are very good right now, Matt. They struggled to beat the Saints this past weekend. Defensively, they looked much better. This is a tricky game. I mean, it's either Tampa Bay or pass.

Totally, yeah. We're not even getting the best number right now. No, this opens a bit higher for Tampa. I mean, so if you want to take, we would be on Tampa. So the case for them is Jalen Hurts is 1-7-1 against the spread in his last nine games as a road favorite. Obviously, thisa team has philly's number um the thing that always kind of creeps me out betting on tampa is like whenever vita vea isn't like 100 that's just that usually spells doom he did practice this week um but he's

been a little bit banged up the last week or so. Saquon Barkley, obviously, is going crazy in Philly. I don't know. I think without A.J. Brown, they're still a much more compromised team, and you might be getting some pretty value here, but I don't feel great about taking Tampa. No, I think it's a maybe. It's a maybe yeah it's a it's a maybe probably yeah i do like this tampa team though um did the next game is uh the rams are going to chicago to

face the bears the bears are now laying three this opened opened at one and a half. And I guess that everyone's just been hammering the surprising. This is a surprising thing that the public would be hammering, I guess, because the Rams just came off that huge one against the Niners, which might be a reason to fade them. So I'm kind of curious where you are here. This whiz smells super fishy, right?

They want you to take the Rams here, but the side has to be the bears right yeah i i don't i don't feel super comfortable doing that no not again this is the important part about doing this right like this is the bears at three could have been one and a half could have been two now three matt two and a half you feel better obviously plus the rams i don't want to count the rams out any game the Bears I just have not played oh excuse me the Bears yeah the Bears have not played great Matt like they're they're going to beat a Rams team I know the Rams are beat up but you can certainly make the case that

the Rams sort of used their one big moment with this injured team last weekend now they're on the road but the Bears aren't playing well right now, Matt. So I don't know how you've been in the bears. Yeah, I don't see it. And it's the Rams. Look,

the, the trends really back the bears here. And I think that's why everyone's on them. Uh, when a team comes back from 14 or more points down, they're 24 and 49 straight up and 30 and 44 against the spread when playing on the road in their next game that's according to our bud evan abrams at action network so you know this would be the spot where it's like the rams just sort of emptied the clip they beat their rival

who they never beat by the way teams are always worse when they play the 49ers the next week like all those things kind of come together but you're right we missed the number and i cannot back caleb laying a field goal to i don't think anyone right now so i think this is unfortunately a pass i agree yeah all right fair enough well i mean there's other games i like that's that's why as well yeah there's i think this one is going to be one of the ones for me um the falcons are hosting the saints uh everyone loved the saints a week ago and then the saints did the thing where they were the saints uh seeing everything from one and a half to two

and a half here uh depending on what side you like what what's your side here definitely the falcons yes correct yeah yes so the falcons obviously uh were much improved since week one when we first saw them, even though they weren't horrible that week. They had their chances against Kansas City. A pass interference that only the Chiefs seemed to avoid getting. That could have been called. Don't start that crap. Don't start that, Matthew.

Let's just say if they had made that call which seems kind of obvious that we could be talking about a totally different falcons team here the saints are over inflated from you know running all over dallas which seemingly everyone can do and then destroying the panthers cool uh i don't know man i just don't believe in the saints team at all i think the falcons match up with them better everywhere um some problems on both lines but i think it's going to affect the saints worse so i'm fine with the falcons here i think they're getting a good number at one and a half yeah one and a half there's only one or left it looks like maybe two um so look the saints offense line is is now a concern because they're not that good to start with.

The other two best players are out, right? Ruiz is out, and so is Eric McCoy. So now you're down your two best offensive linemen, Matt, on the road against a Falcons team that, you know, to your point, played well against Kansas City, just wasn't able to finish the job. So Eileen Falcons here as well. I can probably, I feel maybe probably comfortable putting this into like the yes.

Like not even a maybe, just sort of yes. I'm there. And remember too, like the Falcons, the Falcons defense has like a lot of guys on it who you kind of forget about and they could really exploit uh the front this the saints banged up front like good luck you know handling that pass rush there's there's a great secondary there i feel like the falcons are going to make a statement here and we're going to remember the saints are the saints i'll just say this where do you oh yeah fan duel has a one and a half yeah all right it counts we're calling it

um all right locking that in next up we have uh houston and jacksonville in just a game that i just could not care less about we can save six all right we're saving time uh one sentence all right are the jaguars fixable no okay great not not great for you jacksonville fans uh good luck with the weather this weekend that's a serious point um okay the vikings the undefeated vikings are uh are not getting they are getting three points in green bay so i assume that means that the books think that jordan love will. We don't have that information now. But yeah, I don't know. This is an interesting game.

I'm curious if you have a side here. So I would take Minnesota. I would too. Let me explain why. I know it might be the kind of public side, the square side, but their defense, Matt, has been incredible. The last two games, the Niners and Tex texans 25 on third down against that defense now you add in either malik willis who's very limited as a quarterback and they've done an incredible job by the way the packers have great offense

around it like matt lafleur has done an incredible job but let's say it's jordan love who can't move matt now you're playing a vikings defense that's going to get after you in the manner. The Vikings, look, I'm not sure Sam Donald's winning the MVP, Matt, but it is a sustainable model. It's a Shanahan offense, the good offensive line that runs the football, that has Justin Jefferson,

that is, you know, defensively, they're good with foot. It's a sustainable way to play football. That's why I think them plus three against either malik willis or a not 100 jordan love is absolutely the way to go i do too i'm buying it i agree with you i i think a fun wrinkle in this is the aaron jones revenge game angle i know you're not big in running backs but i do feel like he's going to really take some pride in this one um they might get jordan addison back week, which would be really nice and a totally underrated

part of their offense if they come back and open the field up for Jefferson a bit. The Packers, besides Love, are just a little bit banged up. He's had some issues. They've got issues all over the place. I think I'm very comfortable taking the Vikings, getting the three here it i'm not sure i want to like automatically put it through but i think i would feel fine if that made our five yes same here all right we've got man we've got a lot we like already um all right next one i have a feeling i have a feeling this will be on our list the colts are one and a

half point home dogs to Pittsburgh. We're going to bet against the Steelers for the third straight week. I'm sorry. I mean, I just feel like every week we have to bet on or against the Steelers. The Colts are 100% the side on this one, right? Yeah, the Colts are one of the five. I'm just... Amazing.

Great. Save time. I'm so in. It just is. I am sorry sorry I don't know what I I hate just betting against Pittsburgh every week Matt but at some point it's over like it's just it's done like this whole like smoke and mirrors offense and and like if Justin Herbert is healthy in that game that game is much. Like Herbert was dicing up that defense. Anthony Richardson is not very fun to watch because he does some wild ass shit.

He is a high variance quarterback, Matt. And there's probably a couple of points in this game we're going to go, holy shit. What the hell is that Anthony Richardson? But it's still better than the Steelers, like picking the Steelers on this side. So I'm in on the on the colts matt i think we can get ourselves a one and a half um right now no no more twos are there i don't see any twos but uh one and a half uh give it to me i'm in well a couple couple more reasons to like this pick for us uh tomlin as a road favorite off of a win covers 30% of the time.

This is just a great spot to go against him. Reminder that the Steelers, their wins so far were at Atlanta in that game where Cousins was not himself yet, and they scored six field goals. Then it was Bo Nix's second game in Denver where they put up 13 points and then last week they beat the Chargers with Herbert you know compromised and then missing the second half essentially so I think I think the Colts you know are a team that people just don't really know what to do with they think it's all like this Anthony Richardson show but like you know tough loss to Green Bay tough loss to the Texans they beat the Bears. Like, they're a decent team.

They've been able to get some pressure up front. It's a little concerning that they have so many injuries. Buckner's obviously out, but, like, Payne might be out. Seems like there's a lot of problems up front. But Pittsburgh, too, has some injuries, right? Like, both Jalen Warren and Najee Harris are both injured. So that means that they're going to have to push the ball with fields, which is a nice spot for us to be in.

So, yeah, give me the Colts um i'm in so all right perfect all right so that's great i have a feeling we're probably passing on this one the patriots at the niners the niners are laying 10 and a half points i didn't even know these teams were playing i didn't know playing each other yeah we're just gonna see the box score afterwards be like oh the 49ers won by nine glad we didn't bet on that one yeah i i'm i'm out on that yeah uh glad they're not starting drake may for that one um all right this is a game we're in the late window now that game's in the late window uh this one is of course of interest to me the president of the jayden daniels fan club uh he and the commanders are getting three and a half points in arizona um do you have a thought here yeah i think i would take arizona but i don't think you would take arizona so make the case i think we're we're gonna overreact to the one game temple size of washington against the bangles of national television right matt um the thing

in arizona didn't look great against the Lions either. So I would lean Arizona here. I think it would – I think everyone's going to play Washington this weekend, put it like that. I don't want to be on that side. Yeah. I'm scared of it. Great teaser game, I think.

I think this is going to be one of those just like back and forth you know the over and this one is over under is like 50 it's the highest i think of the season neither team has a defense washington hasn't punted in two weeks haven't turned the ball over in two weeks gonna be tough to stop them i i would take washington with the points i think the half point is really an interesting line but it's a very public side and i'm glad you're talking out of it yeah we can't do it well i'm making sure i'm talking you out of this one which is the chiefs laying a touchdown or even more against the chargers no i don't want the chiefs in this one are you kidding me okay good there's no world where you're taking no no there's there's no world where you take either side of this don't bet this game's

gonna be 1917 the team's gonna win like a last second field goal there's like no herbert no slater no no all no durbin james no bosa and be the fourth quarter and the chiefs need to drive with harrison bucker to win the game exactly how it's gonna happen yeah that's right but i'm boy i'm not but i'm also not i'm also not not wagering on the chargers in this game no chance no no no um i do yeah i don't know but if there is a side it's the chargers but again without a you know with heineken or easton stick that's going to be hard to do um okay pass city there moving on to browns raiders a game i'm sure america is dying to watch uh the raiders are laying two yeah everyone loves cleveland everyone's i like the raiders okay go tell me well so i i have the raiders first half of my best battling bear

bets podcast this week because a couple things one is that um antonio brown called out his team right and call it their effort and the toughness antonio pierce an. Antonio Brown might have done that too, by the way. Yeah, he probably did. And so I just, you know, when that happens, there's one of two ways to go about it, right? One is the team shuts down, right? The other way is the team says, you know what? Either you're right, coach, or we don't want to embarrass ourselves again.

Let's go out and kick some ass. I think it's that type of team for the Raiders, right? This is the coach they wanted. Former player. They played well for him last season, Matt. It's not like they haven't played terribly this year. They got beat by the Panthers in a game they should have won. They were almost a touchdown favorite in that game

at one point. I do think they just play better this week, Matt. They play with more energy. They come out firing. He'd make those changes in the lineup like he said he would. And the Browns have legitimate offensive line problems.

Like, they're not a good football team right now. Legitimate offensive line problems. Watson has played, what, maybe a bit of one game where he was sort of passable as a quarterback. And the other two games,

he's played like shit, Matt. So, it's not one of my favorite because we have other ones we like but i play the raiders before the browns in a heartbeat that's really interesting i i hadn't really considered this one i do think that i think that it's possible that the single most important non-quarterback in the league might be max crosby he's a little and he's beat up uh he played 80 of the snaps last week which is low for him he's been missing practice this week and and what antonio pierce said actually was like we can't all just lean on max for our energy

like we have to be better as a team than that and i found that to be really interesting so if he plays i think it's, which I'm sure he will, I think that changes the calculus, and I think he's probably worth a point or two. And look, man, I just think the Browns are one of those teams that the models just favor from last year. So I'm fine fading them. It's just a dangerous game, man.

It's a dangerous game winning points with Gardner Minshew against Miles Garrett. I think we have other ones that we like, I think, more than... All right, let's put it in the maybes. The one and a half isn't a bad number. Okay, moving on to Sunday night game. The Bills are at the Ravens. The Ravens are laying two and a half. Do you like this one?

I actually have a side here. I'm curious if we're on the same side. I think it has to be Baltimore or nothing. Yep. I like it. Alright, interesting. Go ahead. Well, it's just that the Bills have played great football.

Don't get me wrong. They also played the Cardinals, the Dolphins, and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Correct. The Ravens have played, the Raiders stink, but they put the Chiefinals, the Dolphins, and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Correct. The Ravens have played, the Raiders stink, don't get me wrong, but they put the Chiefs and the Cowboys, like legitimate quarterbacks and legitimate teams. And they, look, they had problems on defense.

Don't get me wrong, Matt. But isn't this the perfect spot for them? Like, everyone doesn't believe in them. The Bills just kicked the shit out of Jacksonville on Monday night. They had a short week on the road in Baltimore. I like Baltimore minus two and a half. It's the right number, man. People, they're, everyone will be in Buffalo this week.

Everyone will be in Buffalo this week. It's time to sell. That's, I think, exactly where we are. You mentioned the week schedule. Reminder that last year, Lamar also started 0-2 and won MVPp this would be a nice way to sort of get their season back on track they've had this i mean the chiefs thing was obviously crazy but they've also had this like weird justin tucker has been horrible for them like two for five this year that should hopefully get cleaned up they've you know he said something this week that he's feeling better like they fixed the technical issue or something like that

Lamar, 23-7 is a favorite of three or less for an underdog, so this is the spot to take them it's a night game, their season's on the line, and Baltimore's problem is their pass defense, like, Buffalo is amazing running the ball, Josh is obviously the key to that okay, see if they can get beat by Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman. Let's see if they can do that. I really like Baltimore here.

I also think that this is one of those fishy lines that the public, the bets are 74% of the bets are on Buffalo. Everyone's betting Buffalo this week in this spot. So I think I like being on the other side of that i do i do as well um all right baltimore's in okay so we've got we've got three we've definitely got in that's good uh we're moving to monday night now there's two games again the first one is tennessee at miami skip god we can't possibly bet tennessee right no no no we can't do it i'm glad i'm sorry no chance. No chance. We can't do it.

I'm sorry I even said it. I'm sorry, America. I'm sorry I won't say it again. The Lions are laying three and a half to the Seahawks in a game that is going to be fun. I don't have a feel for this, though. I lean Seattle here, but I don't feel strong about it. Seattle's the same argument you make about sort of other teams.

They played what? Seattle's the same argument you make about sort of other teams. They played, what, they played rookie Bo Nix, Patriots, beat up Dolphins. Yeah. The line's the best team they're going to play, by far, in four weeks. So I would say Seattle or bust here, Matt, but not my favorite. Man, I think I might be on Detroit on this, so maybe we can just save time. I just, Detroit hasn't had their week yet, where they've just all been in sync, where they've put it all together.

This is a Monday night game at home against this rookie coach that, you know, another team that's three and oh, that everyone's like, could Seattle win the NFC West? Like, maybe, but I don't see them going in there and winning this game. But the three and a half is a little tricky so i think we can take this out of contention um okay so we went

through the games and i see that we have six that we like well i i have okay you should i have three that i think we agreed upon we're taking right starby atlanta right we agree on that yep indianapolis oh india i didn't write them yep great and baltimore Atlanta, right? Do we agree on that? Yep. Indianapolis. Oh, India. I didn't write that. Yep. Great. And Baltimore. And then potentially we had a few others.

Go ahead. So we had Detroit. I mean, Denver plus seven and a half. Yep. Chicago minus three. I'm going to take Chicago out. Take Chicago out. No way.

Minnesota. So it's basically Denver plus seven and a half. Minnesota plus three. Vegas minus two. I think we throw throw vegas out right and just take the other two yeah i'm fine with that right um we also we had tampa potentially in the mix also right tampa plus one and a half yeah yeah i mean i guess do you like that or not let's let's compare we've got minnesota i think minnesota is a really good bet so i think it would be between denver and tampa and denver getting the seven and a half against the jets i feel like oh man that's probably the right play that is the right play right that absolutely is the right play. Yeah. All right.

Let's lock that in. Oh, I like this. I like this five. I like this five a lot. This feels more like us. This is our group of five right here. It feels good. So we have Atlanta minus one and a half, Indy plus one and a half,

Baltimore minus two and a half, Denver plus seven and a half, Minnesota plus three. That's a beautiful list diversified portfolio this is our jam here so Cousins Richardson, Lamar Bo Nix, Sam Darnold NFL MVP

Sam Darnold we have 1, 2, 3, 4 home teams though and we have the Vikings on the road getting 3 points I like it, Jeff. I feel like we're in good shape with this list. Well, we can't. I mean, I think we sort of can be worse. But 5-10.

5-10, buddy. Hey, 5-0 and we're right back to 500. That's not how it's going to go, but we're going to inch up. I thought about this a lot. We've been 0-5, unfortunately, a couple times through our years. Never been 5 and 0 i don't think in a week that's not true we've gone 5 and 0 it's been a it's been we definitely didn't last year but in the past we definitely last year was our best year is that true i feel

like our first or second year we were very we've been doing this i think what four years uh five years but five or six we we've i don't know i think we had a we last year we were way over 50 yeah we were we were profitable with the big last year by by a decent margin yeah which we do we normally i tell people all the time like we're normally about 50 50 in the nfl which yeah we're not like we love doing this obviously but we're not bad enough to fade or good enough to tail. Exactly. But that's how most people are. All you professionals, it's just, honestly,

it's managing your money, it's hitting your ones that you're sure about and cashing in on some underdogs. I hit a good amount of props, too, which is nice. We're making money here. All right, buddy. I think we did it. We did it, bud.

Good luck with the weather. Yeah, we should have some wind gusts tonight, I think, but it should be fun otherwise. We love wind gusts. Yeah, 60-mile-an-hour, they're saying. Man, seriously, everybody listening, please stay safe. All right, everyone, we'll talk to you next week. Let's go 5-0, Matthew.

Let's do it, everyone. We'll talk to you next week. Let's go 5-0, Matthew. Let's do it, baby. you