Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Week 4 Reactions and NFL Week 5 Best Bets

Episode Date: October 4, 2024

Geoff is back with another episode of Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You. On today's show, Geoff and Matt recap week 4 of the NFL. Plus, a look ahead into week 5 of the NFL with Geoff's Best Bets.Be sure to follow the pod to get notified when a new episode drops each week, and follow @GeoffSchwartz on Twitter/X for more NFL and CFB comments. Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You will be live streamed on Twitter/X and YouTube every Friday all season long.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It is Friday, October 4th. I'm Jeff Schwartz. That is Matt Ford. This is Jeff Schwartz of Smart on You. Welcome to our Friday preview of the National Football League games on Sunday and Monday. That Monday game might make our card this week, guys. As we normally do on Fridays, we go through all the NFL games of the week. We choose five sides to wager on Matt. We put him in our little contest of one of our offshores. And what a roller coaster so far. We are 10-10 through four weeks. We've had an 0-5 week, week two, and a 5-0 week, Matt.

Last weekend, we're back to even, which has never happened to us in this sort of roller coaster ride. So we are 10-10 heading into week five, Matt. I'm glad we got ourselves back to 500. It feels like a new season now and even slate for us. I 100% agree. If you missed week two, you're feeling amazing about this show. We are 10 and five. I remember last year we had a caveat.

We were like 11, 8, and Broncos because you made us bet on Russell Wilson. I believe laying points with the broncos offense and i refuse to count that in our total they covered that game they pushed it it was a push it was a push so we had to push we made it it was the only push we had so we were like 11 8 and russ for last year this week we're 10 and 5 and week two uh we we are uh 10 5 and week two i will say before we get going here on on our week five slate matt which a lot of games within three points so kind of curious where we go in a lot of these games here i've actually set aside five games i think we're going to do i'm curious to see if we hit all five games do you make i know in california

it's tough because you don't have what's going – do you make in-season wagers on wins and things like that throughout the season? Well, of course I would never do such a thing. Why would I ever admit to doing something like that on a recorded podcast? I have taken the Patriots under five and a half wins for the season. I took that today. Okay.

I took Chris Jones, defensive player of the year plus 1300 this week as well brock purdy mvp plus 1400 oh interesting i mean the purdy thing he's leading the nfl in passing yards he's doing it without you know the full compliment obviously i think that's a pretty good play um here's an idea for you for for mvp uh jayden daniels don't start i have working the year ticket on them and now is now is now hurt so um that i feel like that's a jayden daniels win i will say though we will talk about that game this week literally a ticket for jayden daniels rookie of the year from the cosmo uh what number september 10th via a friend who was visiting plus 500, but I have some other tickets that I can't physically hold that are

plus 600 or better. That's looking like easy money, buddy. That's looking good, but the MVP, the Jaden MVP conversation this week, I was just like basking. This is not going to last. He's not going to be the best quarterback of all time forever. Maybe he will, but

I'm enjoying it while it lasts buddy you should enjoy it while it lasts it might end this weekend though hint hint we'll see this weekend all right matt a lot of ugliness to get to the game last night thursday night football those thursday unders no no more uh primetime unders that was that was hammered by the way before we get to to to football real quick you watch baseball playoffs? I'm getting more texts about it than I've ever gotten, which so I know is the short answer. But you're a Nats fan, though, right? Nats? Yeah, Nats and Orioles.

And the Orioles have lost 10 straight playoff games. And Kansas City just keeps winning stuff. I think Gabe is a Mets fan, right? Yes, Gabe is a Mets fan. He was probably on edge last night. Oh, yeah. He was very on edge. Was he at work?

Because it was at 44 Pacific, right? Was the start time, I think? Gabe will pretend he doesn't care, but I can assure you Gabe cares. I feel like all I know in my life are Mets fans, and all of them seem very distraught with whatever's happening at all times. Before we get the NFL, so Pete Alonzo for the Mets hit a home run last night. And this is a fun stat because I think baseball stats are very fun because their sport has been around for 150 years.

How about this? Pete Alonzo has the 10th go-ahead home run in the ninth inning or later in a winner-take-all game in postseason history. The first time in MLB history when his team was trailing the ninth inning or later in a winner-take-all game in postseason history. The first time in MLB history when his team was trailing the ninth inning did he hit a home run. That is crazy. In the entire life of baseball,

first player in a winner-take-all game as losing to hit a home run. That's crazy. The ninth inning. That is crazy. Yeah. Feels like that should happen more often. There were like 400

lead changes in falcons bucks which i was locked into last night you know i i had i had lana minus two and a half because i was fading me too people that i that i fade and i got lucky to win that one i'll admit that the the bucks outplayed them all right matt enough rabble roosting let's get to the games of the week here. Some ugliness, but I think we're going to find five we like. Yeah. Well, let's start in London town where Aaron Rodgers is going to visit Sam Darnold. And Sam Darnold is favored by three or two and a half.

Do we have a policy on London games? I feel like we generally stay away. We don't wager on them as our policy. Yeah. Well, that's, I think we're going to hold on that here because I would probably without even hesitating bet on the Vikings, but everybody, all the money's on the jets. So that is confirmation to me that we should stay far away. Yeah.

Go ahead. Yeah. stay far away yeah um go ahead yeah i think when you look at at this game the the jets are the side i think you have to take but you just can't do that in my opinion like first of all it's gonna do it it's a it's a it's the standalone london game which are always funky games the jets i think have some serious issues with their offense which look nate hackett their coordinator what What a surprise. Devontae Adams already – not Devontae Adams. Kira was already upset.

I'm trying to add Devontae Adams. Rodgers, is he beat up? Is he – how is he right now? Vikings are like a freight train at the moment. Do you get in front of that freight train? Probably not with the Jets. So I think we pass on this one. Yeah, pass. Aaron Rodgers has never faced Brian the jet. So I think we pass on this one. Yeah.

Pass. Aaron Rogers has never faced Brian Flores, which I found to be kind of interesting. And the favorites tend to cover in the London game. So my, our, our buddy Nick, right. His take was basically like,

who do you trust figuring out the London week, Robert Sala or Kevin O'Connell? And I thought that was a pretty good take. Kevin O'Connell probably coach the year year right now if it ended today. Oh, yeah. Oh, absolutely. Yeah. And Flores coordinator of the year.

So good luck to the Vikings fans. All right. A game I can't believe we have to even think about is the Dolphins and the Patriots. We don't. Man. Yeah. I don't have a lean here. I'll just for the sake of the show, the Patriots are favored.

The Dolphins opened his favorites. So you never want to bet on the team who has become the favorite, but I can't bet on Stoop and the Dolphins here. Can you? No, no. I think this is a hard pass. This game will be watched by no one. I don't think even Patriots or Dolphins want to watch this game.

Yeah, unless you're a fan of this team. You know, if you're betting on this one, maybe call the hotline. Panthers, Bears, a game I have a feeling we'll probably have an opinion on. The Bears are laying three and a half to four. Where are you on this one? I mean, it has to be Panthers plus four, right, Matt? Or Buster's one.

I love this one. Oh, you do be panthers plus four right matt or or buzz love one i love this one oh you do okay you like carolina okay i like carolina a lot um okay carolina plus four what do you like about carolina well their whole team is different yes right like they're running the ball super well they have great offensive line play you know those free agents they signed have really improved there go ahead sorry i'm up to you i want to be let the record state that i was right about the bryce young benching and a bunch of these people in the sports media that are like oh my god players how dare they get benched and oh my they ruined bryce young they might have done all that it doesn't mean they shouldn't have played andy dolan i called this man i feel i feel on the right side of history here matt i want to make that clear are. And it's something that I've learned for the first time watching a good quarterback on my team, really.

I think so much of what determines success for quarterbacks is whether the team just believes that you can do the job. And I don't think that the Panthers believed in Bryce Young at all. And then with Andy Dalton, I don't think they think they have Joe Montana, but I think that they think they have a guy who can make it throw. And it's clear the whole team is playing better on defense. They have nobody left, but like they're playing hard. They're playing above, I think what the expectations should be. And the bears, I think are getting a nice boost for this win over the Rams that, you know, we saw coming last week. Like we just sort of, it was a tough spot for the Rams. They're banged up.

And I think everyone's just sort of willing the Bears to be this better team. But I don't see a huge gap between these two teams. And quite frankly, I think the Panthers might have the better quarterback right now and the better coach. So I have no problem getting a little bit of extra points here for a Bears team that I don't trust at all. I think you're right, right? People saw the Panthers game last weekend, and they lost to the Bengals.

They lost a bunch of points, and the sort of the Andy Dalton thing might be, oh, they lost, it's over now. But you're right. The Bears beat a Rams team. We're going to talk about the Rams in a little bit, who I think are just sort of dead. They're just zombie Rams right now. And they beat a team that just is not the panthers like

the panthers don't have the talent the rams have at some positions but they're just healthier in general and they're playing with a different spirit so yeah carolina plus four would have to be the play here but uh if you like it that much let's uh let's put it in a in a yes for now yeah let's let's advance it i mean the the thing about the rams i i don't totally agree that they're dead we'll get to them i guess but the the point was is that last week they came back from 14 they won this crazy game against a very physical niners team they it was just a it was just a flat spot so i i don't put a lot of stock into that bears win and i think i think it's a nice sell of the bears here um a team that we've been on i think the last two weeks is up next the colts

and the jaguars yeah uh afc south game will the jags get on the board vegas seems to think so they are favored by three against joe flacco's colts we assume joe flacco right yeah uh no jonathan taylor i like the jags minus three you heard matt Matt. I know. I know. I know. I hate the number. Well, sure. But it's been a solid three all week, right? It's not like we're getting a bad number right now because it has not. It's been two and a half and we got three.

But isn't this sort of telling you something? First of all, right? So Joe Flacco is most likely going to play. The number has not budged at all. So they built that into the number this week. The Colts have no Jonathan Taylor either. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-4. I get it, but they're telling you

Jacksonville's better. They're three points at home, which I don't think NFL's three points anymore. For home, it's like two, two and a half maybe. Jacksonville's a better team than Indianapolis. Indianapolis has a terrible secondary. Jacksonville will throw the ball on them the entire game. Now, Jacksonvilleville supremely untrustworthy matt um but that does feel like the spot they win this game get on the board they're gonna be oh and five this year i i i don't see that happen

colts off a big win at home on the road now outside not in the dome joe flacco who might be better for them but i don't know man i i i would take jacksville here uh not my strongest play but i don't dislike it yeah i buy it too um this that's how i feel i'm if we end up with this is probably our fifth i would feel fine with it uh i think you know the colts were also in this good circumstance last week of mid-game quarterback switch from a totally different style that kind of caught a defense off guard. We liked the Colts last week and didn't like the Steelers. The Colts almost blew that game anyway. We were hanging on, biting our nails throughout the whole game.

We bet on the Colts the last two weeks, if I'm not mistaken. I remember that we took them against the Bears, too. So I think it's a nice sell spot for them. The Jags, you know, the Jags do well in this division. They're not gonna, I don't know. It's how many games is this straight for Lawrence? He's lost now nine. Like at some point that's gonna turn around. Speaker 2 Yeah. Speaker 1 Yeah. So Colts D is banged up. Their defensive lines banged up. Their secondary is banged up. Like this is a game. I think there's just going to be a ton of, of points and yards,

a fantasy game for the ages, I think. So I don't mind Jacksonville. It's not my favorite though. Okay. Let's get to the next game. Let's see next game, by the way, like Jacksonville, like the Panthers too. Like, do you think that there's any, like any, like there's, there's been a lot happening.

First of all, we should talk about you and North Carolina. How's it going there? Do you think there's any effect of all the stuff that's been going on in that area and just those teams this week? Does that factor into players thinking and coalescing around a big event like the hurricane? Well, I'll say this so western carolina um and east tennessee a little bit of virginia um the the event was so harsh and severe matt that like it has redrawn geographical maps like rivers that were here are now like here um and if you have the means to donate there's plenty of places to do that um it's well worth it these these small communities the mountains some are big

asheville's a big community but some small ones, they're just gone. They're gone. The Teppers donated $3 million, I believe, but that's a Western Carolina. I'm two hours away from most of that. So I don't think it'll affect the Panthers very much here. I don't know if anyone had family members in that area. I don't think so. I haven't heard those stories. But, you know, it's a real, it's a real, it's very unfortunate. We were going to go to Chimney Rock in a month. We go to Chimney Rock every year, one of the cities that is by Lake Lure. And Chimney Rock is basically uninhabitable right now.

The place we stay at is in the river. It got floated away. So very, very bad things in North Carolina. If you have the means to give, go ahead and do that that but i don't think for the purposes of what we're talking about it matters college football yes because uh i don't know if app state's playing so we absolutely had to cancel the game last weekend um east tennessee had a had an interesting ride getting there they got caught in some water so college a little bit more not nfl got it well you know if anybody's listening and affected by any of this, like our,

you know, our thoughts go to you. I'm glad you're okay. Glad everybody's okay. And in your neck of the woods, Jeff. All right. Switching gears to probably game of the week, Bill's Texans. The Texans are laying a point, which I find super interesting. Where do you stand here? This is bounced from like favorite bounce around. I like Houston this game, Matt. And let me explain the reason why. Well, so Buffalo, I think has two areas where you can exploit this team. Buffalo is still really good, but just two sort of areas, right?

One is if you have cornerbacks that can stop their wide receivers, they don't have, they don't have a game-breaking – Houston has those guys, okay? It turns into a Josh Allen-James cooking, which is fine. Buffalo can still win that way, obviously. They're very good. But you still want some wide receivers to make some plays for you. You don't want it to be a full Josh Allen game. On the flip side, only a certain number of teams can take advantage of the Bills' injuries on their defensive line.

Now Von Miller's not going to – not defensive line, line on their defensive line. Now Von Miller's not going to play. Linebacker, secondary. Now Von Miller's not going to play. He's suspended. And guess who can take advantage of that? The Houston Texans can. Their offense has not been great, Matt. But they have the ability to take advantage of those issues.

The Ravens have the ability to take advantage of those issues. Not everyone does. Jacksonville doesn't, right, who Buffalo beats. New England doesn't, who they play week one. Miami doesn't. No, it wasn't Miami. Arizona. Arizona doesn't, right, who Buffalo beats. You know, New England doesn't. Who do they play week one? Miami doesn't. No, it wasn't Miami. Arizona. Arizona doesn't.

Houston, it's a good team. They're not playing as well offensively as we saw in previous years. Really, last years, not previous years. They'll get there at some point, I imagine. Back-to-back, big road games for Buffalo. And I think people are going to wrongly just take Buffalo in this blindly, but we don't think they're going to lose two games in a row. I like Houston minus one.

I'd be very happy to put it in our five. I'm with you. I was interested where you were going to stand on this one. And I'm, I'm happy this year we're on the same side. Another thing that's just kind of interesting. I mean, Buffalo's secondary for,

for first of all, it's just a total mess. Stroud has not had like that game yet this year this could be the week for that um the other thing that's just kind of interesting about stroud is he's way better at home and we have enough of a sample size it's 10 games at home nine games on the road he's four and five on the road and eight and two at home he has a thousand more passing yards at home he has 20 touchdowns at home and nine on the road with four picks and three picks. Like he, something's different at home. And you know, maybe it's,

who knows, maybe it's just how the matchups have been, but that's enough of a sample size, I think, just to show some sort of meaningful difference. Mixon, I think maybe what's going on with Joe Mixon. Cause that would actually be out, but I'm not, I don't think he makes that big of a difference to Wager. Yeah, I mean, without the running game, their whole offense has really looked different. But Tank Dell might be back, so that's a nice add.

Yeah. I feel like Houston, this is a really, really big game for them. And Buffalo, I don't know. I think we're still getting them in a little bit highly priced and people are throwing out that Ravens game. I'm with you on Houston. I'm glad we're on the same side. Great. Awesome. All right. This one

I just can't figure out. Baltimore is favored by two and a half in Cincinnati. Despite this open at one and a half, but all the money is on Cincinnati, but the line has moved towards the Ravens. My like immediate instinct, I'm sure yours was, was just like, why wouldn't we just take the Bengals here? No, correct.

So why wouldn't we like, what am I missing here? Like I've stared at this one all week and I'm like, what's the problem? Um, the, The Bengals defense, but to be fair, Matt, they get back like four guys from injury this week or two guys from injury plus a couple beat up guys are going to play this weekend. So the defensive line will be a lot more whole. Their offense has been really good

this season. Burrow has not played as well in division, but against Baltimore he throws for a ton of yards though, like he has over the years. Yeah, I don't know why we just, I mean, it's a two-and-a-half worrying. Like, it should have been three, maybe, people think. And two-and-a-half, you lean Baltimore here. I don't know why we wouldn't take the Bengals.

This is a situation we'd always take. We'd take other division opponents in this spot. I got two-and-a-half with Burrow. Like, a divisional home dog, I'm fine with it. Yeah, and, you know, coming off of a huge win for Baltimore and this chance for Burrow, the Bengals still sort of playing for their lives. They haven't looked great yet, but I don't know.

There's something fishy about this one. It seems a little bit too easy, so I'm willing to put it as a maybe. It's a great seizure leg. It's a very nice seizure easy. So I'm willing to put it as a maybe. It's a great seizure leg. It's a very nice seizure leg. I agree with that. Baltimore is just like, you know, I can't tell what they are. I think they are what their record says. Like, they are 2-2, but they could be, you know,

they could have won the game against the Chiefs, of course, but they could have lost their, I forget who they played in their first win. Yeah. Yeah, they're a team, in their first win. Like they, yeah, yeah. They, they're, they're a team that's tough to figure out.

Yeah. Cowboys. So, all right, let's put them as a, maybe there's some stinks to me there. All right. My hot Washington commanders are laying three and a half to the

Browns. I know you're going to want to take Cleveland here. Yeah, of course. But it's not my favorite Matt of the week. I think it's Cleveland or Boston, the spot, right? They're getting three and a half. This is the classic spot, right?

Oh, my God. Cleveland stinks. And Washington's the best team of all time. They're three and one. Who can stop Jayden Daniels? Oh, my God. And then the Browns just win this game, right? But it's not one of my favorite picks.

And I think I just can't get there with Cleveland, but I think it's Cleveland or Buston in this. Yeah, you're not taking Washington. The hook certainly doesn't help there. I've always felt as if Cleveland gets like an extra point from Vegas, like in the Stefanski era, I think, or maybe the Jim Schwartz era is the more accurate way to put that. And it feels like this is the first week they're not. This line is just, it stinks, but

I don't think I can back Watson ever. And the way that Washington has been winning is just like, okay, can you score 30 points? And Cleveland can't do that. And I get it that Cleveland's defense is like a big step up over Arizona's and Cincinnati's and the Giants. But I don't know. This just feels like a pass to me. I don't think Cleveland is.

If we needed a fifth, I'd consider it. We can put it on the list. I don't think we need a fifth. I don't think we need a fifth either. All right. Moving to the late window, the AFC West Raiders and Broncos. The Raiders, a team of massive turmoil right now. Who would have guessed that with Antonio Pierce?

Shocking, right? Yeah. The players coach. And that's what happens. Yeah. Now you've got the Broncos laying two and a half or three tons of public betting on the Raiders and the money on the Broncos. Are we betting

on Bo Nix again? Is that going to happen? No, no, no. I just know a sharp group I know did hit Vegas plus three earlier in the week. The Broncos have scored on the Broncos offense has the 4% of drives and in touchdowns, Matt, and only 52% of drives and

with the first, I would have a first down lowest in the NFL. Their offense is really bad. I think it's just stay away. I, I, I'm, I'm going to pass. I just, I would take Raiders probably, but not enough to where I'm, I'm feel comfortable with it. We have other better plays, put it like that. Yeah.

Then let's pass. I would probably be on Denver. Um, the Raiders are just this super goofy team and, and you know more and more guys feel like they're sitting out where do you think adams goes the jets god man it'll be it'll be a disaster new york devonta adams is maybe the best friend i've ever seen like him and aaron rogers and derrick car like it's it's like he's they lived across the street from each other when they were kids. There's some bond between them that is disrupting the NFL at all times. It's kind of funny. All right. Next game, Cardinals at the

Niners. The Niners are laying seven and a half. I'm still seeing a seven and a half. If we are interested in this, we can still have that. Any takers? Interesting. Seven and a half or seven. Either.

I mean, seven and a half. I'm very interested in Arizona. I would consider them at seven, but I'm curious where you are. Yeah. I think Arizona can't keep up with this game, Matt.

The defense is horrendous. It's a bad defense. I mean, would it surprise you if this game was 34-24 and you're just like begging for a Kyler Murray backdoor cover? I don't want to be in that spot, to be honest with you, buddy. I think Arizona, they've had sort of their one nice win against the Rams and have pretty much, in Bills Week 1, sort of were competitive.

But these games have not, they're just not good right now. The Niners are just far better. Now, seven points better, I don't know. Shannon has a big favorite. It's terrible. Right, Matt? Yep. I would stay away or take the 49ers.

I mean, do you feel strong about the Cardinals? So here's the main reason. Since 1960, this is the best season through four weeks for teams that are getting six or more points. This year, those teams are 14-2-1 against the spread. They're covering 88% of the games. those teams are 14, 2-1 against the spread. They're covering 88% of the games. And the Cardinals are one of these teams that, like,

they got their asses kicked last week. Like, we're buying super low on them. The Niners, you know, everybody loves the Niners, but once again, like, who have they actually, like, played? You know, last week they beat the Patriots. Okay, cool. You know, Brock Purdy's having this nice run, but the teams that they've... Let's just go through their schedule quickly. Like, they beat the Patriots. Okay, cool. Brock Purdy's having this nice run, but the teams that they've... Let's just go through their schedule quickly.

They beat the Jets. Okay, that doesn't look as impressive anymore. They lose to the Vikings, which makes sense now. They lost to the Rams, who are dead, and then they hung 30 on the Patriots, who are probably the worst team in the league. And I just think the Cardinals, everyone's down on them,

but they still have a really good offense. They can still run the ball and keep the game close these divisional games like they're rarely blowouts and you know i i don't know like i i just don't think the niners are the niners and i think the cardinals are one of these teams that can hang around and seven and a half to me feels like a point too high. We could put in the maybes. I think we have other ones that we like better than Arizona. Okay. Well, let's maybe it. Yeah.

I used a different pen for that one. That might be bad luck. Okay. This one is not going to be one of them, right? The Seahawks are laying seven or six and a half to the Giants. Just skip it. This is we're not. I have zero thoughts on this game. Yeah.

My thought is Wandale Robinson over receptions. That would be my thought for this one. I just saw this. The Bills are going to be without Khalil Shakir and Ed Oliver. The Texans are going to be in Sharpie on our five picks. Khalil Shakir is like sneaky of number one wide receiver for an NFL team that's going to the playoffs. That's kind of bizarre.

Okay, so passing on Seahawks Giants. I don't even know who I would lean there. Giants plus seven would be the lean, but we're not doing that. Stinky. Okay. Packers at Rams. Packers are laying three to the Rams.

What? Can I make the case that the Rams are just not good, Matt? It's that simple, right? So they lose the Lions by six in week one. Close fought game, but don't cover that final spread, right? Late overtime touchdown, that happens, right? So week one. Week two, you go to arizona and they get their asses handed to them 41 10 they lose all these guys right cooper cup is out who could

who's out their whole offensive line is out and then the next game when everyone's like they're gonna get their butts whooped if the 49ers are coming to town they're they're down 24 14 and it's miraculously come back right 27? 27-24. Then last week, the Bears pretty much controlled this entire game. And we don't think the Bears are any good, Matt. I just think that the Rams are just sort of zombies right now. The Packers lost the Vikings in a game that was close to the second half, wasn't close to the first half. Jordan Love looked fine coming off a knee injury.

This is not a home game for the Rams. They're going to have 50% of this fan base to be Packers fans in this game. I would very much lean Packers here minus three. It's unlike me to want the Packers minus three in this spot. I mean, road favorite is a rare wager of ours. I don't know what the Rams have left, dude. Like, what is, other than just sort of saying,

well, they beat the Niners and they can still sort of do that. What do they have going for them right now? They're, they're young on defense, not terribly good on defense, offensively, no offensive lineman. No, no, no, no, no, no, no water to the 26 and DVO way right now. They're 31st on defense. Like it's not a good football team. It's interesting. They're begging you to take the Rams here,

which is surprising. This is, I mean, look, this is just one of those where you're like, all right, so Stafford and McVay are playing, like probably not going to bet against them as home dogs. I get that, you know, you mentioned the point about the Packers fans.

Totally heard. I don't know, man. I just I'm not willing to count them out. We don't have to do it because there's other bets. I think that are better. I'm always biased to those two guys. I would not take the Rams, though,

in this spot. They've only covered one of one of four games this year, by the way, was a Niners win. Yeah, which means they're probably due to cover another so i would this is a pass to me then uh i i don't i don't think it's like us to bet a big public road favorite but if you felt strongly i'd of course listen but no i mean i i think i did originally but then looking at where we sit right now that that game will be

thrown out yeah plus there's this next game, buddy. This next game, I, jeez. Buddy, we're grabbing a life raft, and we're floating down Schitt's Creek because we are going to take the Pittsburgh Steelers two and a half to Dallas in Pittsburgh. You said it, not me. I mean, you're going to make the case, though. Go ahead. It has to be Pittsburgh. I don't know what else to tell you.

Oh, I've guessed for the five already. I, and, and so the super contest I do is, is on an offshore mat and you could just input the numbers as you go. So there's no like deadline. So I put five in before that we did it i've got four of the five so far so i'm on i'm on uh i i know we're gonna do before we do it um because the cowboys aren't good matt they're out the two best pass rushers they're on the road playing a physical sealers defense this is the spot where like this game is 13 10 you know like it's just it's just a mike tomlin special man it's ugly it's gross justin field just played a little bit better over this couple of weeks

the play action pass that helped out a lot the association offensive line i get that the cowboys i don't think are very good it's that simple and sometimes it's right in front of your face. Look, this is just like the classic Cowboys fade spot, not in the division against a good defense. Dak is so much better against the NFC East than he is against anyone else. The thing that's just kind of like that keeps running around in my head is like, what is this Cowboys defense without Parsons and without Lawrence? Nothing.

They, their defense has fallen apart. Uh, I think the loss of the coordinator mattered and you look around at their talent now and you go like, okay, so who's getting after the passer? Who's got the better running game in this game.

Who's got the better passing game in this game. I think you could make the case now that the Steelers might even have a better passing game than the Cowboys, which is crazy. Like I'm pretty sure that Tomlin's going to figure out they need to cover CD lamb and cool. Let Jake Ferguson and Rico Dowell beat you. Okay.

That seems like a decent formula for them. The offensive line in Dallas is something that's been steady every year. Not, not so much anymore. I think TJ Watts is going to have a huge game in this Steelers defense outside primetime. The crowd's going to be nuts. This feels like a Dallas meltdown to me. This was one of our favorites going in. I knew we would take this one.

Let's go to the last game of the week. I might have to break my rule, Matt. No, we're not. to the last game of the week. I might have to break my rule, Matt. No, we're not. I don't think I don't. Okay. Well, the chiefs are Monday night hosting the saints on Monday night football. We hate the saints. You love the chiefs, right? But the

saints is the right side. And wow. Oh my God. I actually, I was ready to swat this one away saying we're not taking the chiefs laying six against anyone, but now I have to talk myself into derrick car okay make the case no you don't you don't have to but so i have a rule okay i'm a ducks fan and a chiefs fan right and i do not wager in a game with my team on the other team

with points so for example like the saints getting six to me, I don't want to be there rooting for the Chiefs to only win by a certain amount so that they win and I make my money, if that makes sense, right? So, like, Oregon plays Michigan State tonight. They're favored by 23.5. I don't want to sit there and be like, well, I hope Oregon only wins between one and 23 points. I want them to win, right? I just want them to win the game.

Now, I will wager on Chiefs minus six, Oregon minus 23.5, because then you're rooting for just your team to win by as many points as possible, which is already what I'm rooting for anyways, okay? So, I think the Saints, this game is going to be 17-13, 2017, right? All these games, Chiefs play are close. Now, they have no wide receivers. And McColl Hardman, like, was out today at at practice they have four wide receivers on their roster right now four okay the saints defense is i think third in dvoa pretty good defense so far this season doing a good job

on the other side the chiefs weakness on defense is the middle linebacker well now you bring alvin camara to run on the middle linebacker and pass on the middle linebacker. Now, Saints offensive line is going to have trouble in this game. Absolutely. They're not very good, and the Chiefs defensive line is really good this season. So that does give me pause. I could see a strip sack happening, like a defensive turnover here and there that force – give the Chiefs the cover, essentially. So I think we have other plays, honestly, that we can put in here.

Maybe. I actually don't know. We only have four that i think are total like we're in on these plays um but new orleans plus the six i think is the absolute right side in this game are you seeing a six is it it's not six i think it was in the heaven where did i see six at it's still five and a half six oh i'm not sorry it's five and a half my bad i'm sorry five and a half um i think i think that's still five and a half oh I'm sorry it's five and a half my bad I'm sorry five and a half I think

it's still the number dude I think it's absolutely the right side here in this game yeah I think you know I'm thinking about this and I'm like man all right so we're 4-0 or 3-1 and then we're like all right on to Monday

and then the game kicks off and we're like wait a second i'm just a derrick carr on the road against patrick my homes i know i know i know what the hell are we thinking that's in my head if this game were at one o'clock i might be like yeah this is kind of a nice play but uh we know the chiefs aren't going to lose this game so we know it's going to be close we know it's going to be a mess we know that chris jones is going to dominate the third string center for the saints i know and all that's true so having said all of that like i kind of agree i don't think the chiefs are capable of a 30 point game right now like i just don't think they are so i'm willing to put this in the mix um but let's let's recap where we

are so i think we have four that like we're in on that are like they're done they're in sharpie carolina plus four okay houston minus one yep pittsburgh minus two and a half since he plus two and a half right are those the four that are interesting okay so i we have i'm fine with cincy um i i gotta say there's something in me that's like, I don't know. There's something that's kind of holding me back because it just feels like a little bit. It feels a little fishy, but that sort of is the spot we always take the team, right? Yeah, which is another reason why I'm worried about it. The other contenders, you like Jacksonville a lot.

I was in on it. Cleveland's plus three and a half. I think we're killing that one. We're killing that one. And then where it. Cleveland's plus three and a half. I think we're killing that one. We're killing that one. And then where are you on Arizona plus seven and a half? That's the other one, right? So basically, we'll take New Orleans out of it. We'll take Green Bay out of it. So basically, we have left. Green Bay's out. Jacks plus

minus three. Arizona plus seven and a half. So you said Jacksonville could be our fifth. I did. Yeah. Dude. God, the length did. Yeah. Dude. I had to link three. Yeah, but you want Colin Murray? You want this Cardinals defense on the – I mean, what's more likely?

We look up. It's the middle of third quarter. The Niners are up 34-10, or Jacksonville's losing by 10 points in the third quarter. I don't think Jacksonville's losing this game uh i really don't so i'm okay with them you love arizona though don't you i do like arizona i just i love the seven and a half i just i don't think the sealers out there right now yeah

so okay so are we picking two are we picking two or are we just are we are you can make an exact decision on one of these and let's talk through like cincinnati or jacksonville i think we should just put in and then decide between the that the other one in arizona wait well we have carolina houston pittsburgh cincinnati is the four you want to do since that he's in okay i think it has to be right okay let's take this yeah let's let's get some well we have carolina houston pittsburgh cincinnati is the four you want to since that he's in okay i think it has to be right okay let's take this yeah let's let's get some jacksonville or arizona okay that i mean i don't know do you like the saints better than either of those because i would be i feel about the same for all of them i don't want i don't want to bet

on the saints okay saints are the reasons i've said i know my i'm looking at right now at like at the jacksville some numbers in the jacksville game arizona this year let's see there does it make you feel better that raybon is on jacksville minus two and a half of course it does for those who don't know, Chris Rabon works for Action Network, and he is very good at gambling. So when I see a pick he's on, I'm like, oh, ooh. He's very good. He's better than we are. Yes. Oh, yeah.

The Cardinals. Let's, I mean, look, Jacksonville is going to win this game, I think. I feel like, you know like there's two scenarios. The Niners just absolutely kick the Cardinals' asses, or it's just one of those back-and-forth games. We get a backdoor. Okay. Or Jacksonville just completely has a meltdown.

They're not even a professional organization and lose to Joe Flacco at home. I think I'm okay with, I'm okay with Jacksonville. Okay. So it is all right. Jacksonville minus three, Houston minus one Pittsburgh minus two and a half Carolina plus four and the Bengals plus two and a half.

I like it. I think we do. I got an update. I got to take out. What did we add here? We added the game that did not have in our list was Carolina. That's the one i did not have on our pre on our pre-list so i had four i had four of the games i know that's not probably good that maybe i looked ahead but i i know i know how we wager buddy i know how we do it our producers bet on what we're going to take they're wrong how

are they so wrong they've watched our show for five years now and it here's the thing it's pick the steelers game we always are on one side or the other every week yeah and then like pick a Colts game it seems like we're always in a Colts game thank god the Titans are on by this week so we didn't have to bet on them we seem to be on the Panthers a lot we never bet on our two teams no I don't want to bet our two teams that's not fun no no it's not fun to do that yeah um are you excited for for the uh the organ maryland game in a few weeks not really not really buddy uh no i'm not really i look i don't really watch college football i'm i live a full length across the country from from college park maryland

they're not very good i don't live close i don't live close to e, Oregon. Well, I didn't play for the team either. And get invited back to go onto the field and wave to adoring fans. My time at Maryland is remembered differently than yours at Oregon. You should travel up to Eugene for the Maryland-Oregon game. I'll go if you invite me. I'll go with you. I'm not flying with Eugene for that game. I'm sorry. Anytime you want to go to Oregon and me be your guest, I will go with you.

I'll go with you anywhere. I'll go to Ice Cream on Montana Avenue with you. I still get emails from that place. I don't know why that is. I went to Matt. I met Matt, his wife and his young child in Los Angeles. I was in there with my kids and we went to this ice cream shop

and just ordered ice cream. Didn't give him my number. Didn't give him my number. They gave my email address and I get an email a week from Rita's. Is it Rita's? What was it? Rory's Rory's. Let's give him a shout out there on Montana and like seventh and Santa Monica. Great spot.

Yeah. Good old time. Um, or anything else, buddy. How's this? How's everything? I'm good.

Busy. It's just like, this is my, this is my like sixth hour of talking today. So I did three, three hours this morning, two hours of visa and now an hour with you. Um,

I was telling Gabe, I haven't talked to Gabe in a while. Cause I was like, man, I'm, you know, we used to, we used to kick it all the time.

You guys are super busy, which I love. You guys are so busy. Um, so many different things happening and that's fantastic. I'm glad we're able to keep this going in this direction um and just do something once a week put a name on some wagers 100 we got a sponsor coming soon oh is that happening yeah man still it's it's happening uh thanks to your

dad for a lead there that was great let's go and yeah man life life's good jack's birthday october 30th oh right before ha. Not much, man. We're, uh, we're, our life's a little upside down right now. We're doing some construction in the house. Uh, he's, everybody's been sick. I've been muting myself coughing this whole time. Hopefully I caught most of them. Uh, I mean, I haven't heard it.

A one-year birthday parties for the parents. Correct. So that's why we're just kind of, you know, we're going to just kind of keep it small. You're not going to do that. One of those where you just like get a big social media thing and just like do a blow it out. Like a, like a, I think it's so weird how parents not here for the lakes spend a lot of money for their, on their first kid's birthday party.

It's very strange, dude. Uh, did you do anything? Any tips? Yeah. Right. You don't need anything. We kids that we come, people come over the house and the kids smash the cake on themselves. Right.

Yeah. I mean, yeah, man. Oh man. I, dude, I have some great pictures of my kids with,

with smashing their cakes. They'll tell you that. Um, one of them was like super into it. I think it was Emmy. And then Alex was like, didn't care at all, which is funny.

Cause he's a sweet tooth now. And, um, Oh my God. I found the picture of emerson with her with her k oh this is the cutest thing ever and she's not a sweet tooth and alex is a supreme sweet tooth so it's kind of funny how that works um oh they were so little babies so oh my god that's crazy i know right look at a little baby she's eight now playing softball

every day so um all all right, everyone. Enough yapping. I hope you enjoyed the show. Please rate, review, subscribe. 10 and 10. Hoping to go 13 and 12 playing this weekend. I mean, look, I'd love to go 15 and 0, but 15 and 10. But I'll take three wins.

I'll take three wins. All right, guys. Talk to you next week, everyone. Take care, everybody. Thanks. you