Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Week 5 Reactions and NFL Week 6 Best Bets

Episode Date: October 11, 2024

Geoff is back with another episode of Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You. On today's show, Geoff and Matt recap week 5 of the NFL. Plus, a look ahead into week 6 of the NFL with Geoff's Best Bets.Be sure to follow the pod to get notified when a new episode drops each week, and follow @GeoffSchwartz on Twitter/X for more NFL and CFB comments. Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You will be live streamed on Twitter/X and YouTube every Friday all season long.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's friday october 11th i'm jeff schwartz that is matt ford we are jeff schwartz is smarter than you and we are doing our football nfl weekend preview we have a game in the books from last night niners and seahawks diners easily win that game and they cover we have a london game we have all the games in monday night football of course to end the week before we get going, Matthew, we have to share a little bit of griping. I know no one tunes in to listen to us complain about the previous week, Matthew. But we were at 3.50 p.m. Eastern, so the end of the opening window of NFL games last weekend, Matt. We were 3-1. Jacksonville was up 14 points.

The Bengals were up 10 points. Houston was up 14 points. The Bengals were up 10 points. Houston was up 10 points. And, and, uh, we had, well, we had lost another game by a bazillion already.

It didn't matter. So we're three in one, Matt. Okay. Three in one. We ended the weekend one, three in one. How does that happen,

Matt? I'll tell you how that happens. Jacksonville Jaguars blew a giant lead that we felt great about. Who did we end up? The Steelers game was just a total disaster. Like, the whole game. No, I mean, no.

If the Cowboys don't score in fourth down, we cover that game. Yeah, we got pretty close. I mean, that crazy goal line fumble was, at that point, when the guy hurtled over the line, I was like, oh oh my god we're gonna

we're actually gonna cover this uh that one was tough we had carolina plus four yeah and then the bangles one like we made it to overtime if if the holder had just been able to stick that hold on the evan mcpherson kick like the whole league would be different right now like the ravens would not be viewed as this juggernaut. The Bengals would be back. And instead, we didn't get our cover on that one. So Jacksonville was a tough push. I hated that. And then whatever.

But that's what happens. We went 5-0 the week before. We tempted fate. We flew too close to the sun. And now we're back where we belong, which is hovering around 500. 11-13-1, I believe, is our record right now. Plenty of time left. And I'll tell you what,

dogs of five-plus points or more have covered 19 of 26 games this season. They've won a lot of those games outright. So there's a lot of short numbers now, Matt. There's not a lot of big numbers for these games. The books are adjusting a little bit, and it does feel like there's some ugly sides we have to take because of that. But we have to keep with our system, keep with how we see this.

There's injuries to report. There's disagreements we might have. But let's try to get to a five. And I'll tell you what, last night the niners won by i would have taken seattle plus three and a half so i would have been all in one already so um i'll get my bat i really like san francisco actually you did okay yeah we would have disagreement there yeah um yeah i just i don't know seattle to me has been like one of those big fraud teams this year and san francisco was due for a bounce back so yeah all right but that's

in the past san franc, by the way, another, another running back injury there. Like we'll see what, we'll see what they look like next week. Um, okay. First game back to London,

uh, Jags bears, bears are favorites. They're still, it's the money starting to move a little. We can still get a plus one and a half for Jacksonville. I am begging you to to consider jacksonville in this spot we have to okay can i can i does this matter to you i know we're not i

know we're not doing trends matt i know we're not doing trends i get it but can i just tell you can i just give you one trend from our friend uh evan abrams and we can surely take jacksonville that's fine but let me do that because you obviously like them okay here we go you're pulling it up because i do it. Because you obviously like them. Okay, here we go. You're pulling it up because I want to make sure I got the number right here. Okay, here we go. Evan Abrams, Action Network, guys. Free shout out. Action Network's awesome.

Go pay for their app and look at all the trends. Favorites have excelled in international games. They are 35-10-1 straight up, 31-15 against the spread. Just put it out there. So, okay. So if you include Jacksonville in these games, like first of all, the bears every single week, like, let's just talk about the bears for the last couple of weeks, right? Everybody, this is the peak of the bears market because everyone's so happy with it.

They, that they beat the Panthers backups. They're so happy that they beat the Rams backups in a game where we knew that the Rams were going to lose. The Bears are still not good. They still didn't figure anything out. In the middle of that game last week, Carolina lost what? Both of their starting interior offensive linemen. They keep losing guys on the defense. It was a home game. Great. The Bears finally looked pretty good. it was a home game like great the bears finally looked pretty good jacksonville on the other hands they might get everett ingram back we'll see but they are maybe potentially turning the corner here they're a team that's that does this every single year they go over there they win games and now they're chicago is at their absolute top of the market i i just don't see why anyone would say

like yes the bears with rookie quarterback and matt eberflus are going to figure out how to win a game on the road where they're flying as high as they flow in all season. Everyone's saying this team is just like fine and good. Now, two weeks ago, this, this guy was falling with the bears. So I I'm, I'm selling them. I like Jacksonville much better when it was plus two a day ago, but people are starting to get wise to it so i i still am fine with one and a half okay i'm in general agreement with you on the idea of the game the problem is i mean jacksonville's defense matt is so just and they're so untrustworthy but they're getting their their top cornerback this week right i forget the guy's name but they're getting some corners back last week walker had a good game finally like i feel like i'm not ready to totally bail on this Jacksonville team.

And this is what they do. They go to London and they win games. They do do that every single year. And they're staying for two weeks, right? Because they play next week in London too. Yeah. Just the Bears are 20th in DVOA, 26th on offense, 7th on defense. All right, we'll do it.

How about maybe? We'll do maybe for now. Okay, it's buying with a maybe. That's interesting. I was pretty sure I was going to get you on that one. Okay, well, this one I know I'm not going to get you, even though you just talked at the top of the show about how great underdogs of over six points have been.

My commanders are getting six and a half to seven, even in Baltimore, uh, Publix and on Washington, the sharps are on Baltimore. We're split here, right? You like the Ravens.

Yeah, dude, I, you texted me about some Monday. I thought we were on the same page when you text me Monday about this game. You said to me, what are the numbers? I said three and a half,

four. And we said six and a half four and we said six and a half and we both agreed like yeah that's vegas telling you that baltimore's win this game by a lot now now i know it's your team so we kind of have that thing with the chiefs right like i don't bet like sort of on chiefs things i get not betting on commanders things in the situation matt especially for them to basically say that they're gonna lose lose the game. But the Commanders are due for sort of a reset based on the schedule they played and having a rookie quarterback. And Baltimore is sort of that team to help them get reset.

I mean, we saw this happen with Baltimore and Buffalo. Baltimore is probably the best team in football. I believe their high is in DVOA right now. And the Commanders' defense is terrible. The Commanders have played the Giants. Here's our four-game win streak. You ready? Murderer's row. Giants. Here's our four-game win streak. You ready? Murderer's row.

Giants, Bengals, Cardinals, Browns. Like, the Ravens are legitimately a good football team, Matt. Seven's a lot of points, especially the way this season's going on. Six and a half would have been better. But I thought we were on the same page with Ravens minus six and a half. It's Vegas telling you how much better they are.

I mean, that's right. And this is the same Vegas that like loves the Browns every week. And by the way, like the Ravens beat Cincinnati on the road in overtime. Like cool. Washington did that two weeks ago. This is still the Ravens team that lost to the Raiders. Like whatever. Like I don't think these two teams are that far apart. Baltimore's defense is, has been absolutely against the pass. You know, they had a great game against Buffalo. This this to me, honestly, I think the Ravens win the game. I do think it's kind of a tricky spot for them. They're coming off of these three huge emotional wins in a row, including two like absolute nail biters, especially last week. absolute nail biters, especially last week. So I think Washington probably, there's a chance they run into a buzzsaw here, but I'm surprised just based on the trend of the underdogs have been so dominant this year that you're not at least interested in this.

And I get it. This is one of those, I did say that. This is Vegas saying these two teams are totally different. Could be right. The other thing brian robinson didn't practice for three straight days like that i think is a huge injury for them even though eckler and the other back mcnichols have been pretty good so i i do agree this is a pass but i was stunned by this line i'm stunned that it hasn't moved towards washington based on all the

public betting so that does mean that it's holding pretty steady but good good litmus test for washington like let's see if let's see if they're as good as they've looked because you're right they haven't played they haven't played great teams yet but I'm I was stunned by this line and remain so yeah I mean I know sharp people are on the Ravens uh I don't know what to what degree they're not them at seven six and a half they were seven I think they'd probably stay away but um yeah I mean I think we just stay away from it then yeah fair enough um I. I'm glad I don't, I it's nice not having to go on the record with this team, even though they've covered, I think three out of four or four and a five. Okay. Texans Patriots,

the debut of Drake May. This is the one that's like, Oh my God. I'm curious if we're going to have to look to grab the points on this one. It's it's the Texans are like seven on the road. Stroud is a road favorite has been nowhere near as good as he is as a as a home anything, but certainly is a home dog. So go ahead. Texans are four and one this year. They won game by games by two, six, four and three. I mean, this one would take some real stones, buddy.

We're betting on a quarterback who's 20 years old or whatever who we've never seen on possibly the worst team in the league with a Texans team who, I guess, without Nico Collins, might have some issues on offense in just a trap game spot in a huge game for the Patriots. There's a lot of like big home dogs this week. This one would just take some real courage. Well,

I mean, would you, I mean, I'm just, I'm eyeing the rest of the slate and there's sevens we can get right now, by the way. So we'd rather take seven, obviously. I'm just eyeing the rest of the slate. And there's sevens we can get right now, by the way. So we'd rather take seven, obviously.

I'm just eyeing the rest of the slate. And we're about to have just four tremendously stinky home dogs this weekend. And I'm just not going to want to watch football. It's going to be so bad. It's really going to be bad. You have to take New England with a plus seven here, right? You just have to. It's a lot of points.. You have to take New England plus seven here, right? You just have to. It's a lot of points. Houston's offense this year has sputtered a little bit.

They're 21st in DVA. They're not what they've been in the past. They're up 23 against Josh Allen. Josh Allen couldn't pass the ball. He was nine for 30, I think, in this game. And that game was tied at 20, needed a 15-yard field goal to win the game. And only because Buffalo screwed the end of the game situation, Matt, right?

If they don't do that, that game goes to overtime. Who knows what happens? So I think it probably has to be New England here. They've actually played decently close games at times this season, and maybe Drake May just gives them a little bit more, and that little bit more fires up the defense, and they end up keeping this game close.

I don't know. I think that's the best case scenario i think that's it and you know the team seemed like they weren't totally motivated to play for bursette anymore whether may is good or bad stroud is uh since he's entered the nfl he's been a favorite of over three or more nine times which is crazy he's two and seven that's the worst mark in the league according to our friend evan um so situationally this is just like a close your eyes and just go ahead and throw a dart with the patriots and i'm fine with it it's it's disgusting but uh you know we don't have to watch it. We can just, we can just hopefully add it to the 11 wins at the end of the day. Oh,

all right. This is going to be a depressing podcast, buddy. Um, speaking of depressing the Cleveland Browns, huh? That's a segue. They're going to Philly.

Uh, they're now getting nine and a half points. What is going on with this? No, no. Why did the line move? It's been eight or eight and a half all week. Because the Browns suck.

That's why Matt. And that was terrible quarterback. quarterback moved at a point in the last day like what are we like about philly maybe the back of injury and they have they're off a buy i think just stay away i just happened on the injury report today like this makes this makes no sense that it moved another point i think um i i don't know I mean this sounds terrible but it has to be Eagles or pass I just think you pass all this yeah oh well Jack Conklin is active so the Browns got good news in their

in their injury report and the Lions still move towards the Eagles I don't get this one man I really don't this this seems just ludicrous. Well, I think the Browns are really that bad right now. In years past, this would have been like 14 and a half. But because of now and all these games, Matt, being so much closer, it's just not.

Yeah, I'd stay away, I guess, right? I got to, I'm away, I guess, right? I'm really, I guess, but I kind of, are the Browns that bad? They got blown out by a team. Yeah, Deshaun Watson is that bad. But the problem that they were having was their pass protection last week. Watson got sacked seven times in that game, and then they quit. And that was it. Well, here's the thing.

The thing with the Browns is always tough is what if Sean Watson plays better this week and they become good again? That's the problem. Devontae Smith cleared concussion protocol, by the way. Yeah, Brown's playing too. It's like they have both guys back. I get it. But Philly hasn't won a game by 10 points like since when the year they went to the super bowl

like i yeah this is a weird this is a weird one we would only be grabbing it because of the number the browns could just quit but i don't i don't know this is the weirdest game of the week to me i can't i just don't understand who has that much confidence in philly but oh not us i don't know. This is the weirdest game of the week to me. I just don't understand who has that much confidence in Philly. Not us, I don't think. Yeah. This is what I'm saying. It's like people think the Commanders are such trash that they're like, well, the Browns must be terrible.

I don't think that's it. I think the Commanders thing is more about the Ravens, which is really good. But I'm saying it's the same data point for this game. I just don't think these two teams are that far apart. Everyone's like, Philly sucks, but Cleveland must suck more. it just makes no sense to me but we can pass it it's it's very fishy and the line just keeps getting bigger despite everyone betting on philly so that's just the browns are 32nd in dby by the way that means anything to you yeah i mean they're not good um but we did just take the fucking Patriots.

Moving on to it. Speaking of not good, the Colts are going to Tennessee. Is Anthony Richardson the starting quarterback for this game? Because that is the full determination of who we're betting on. I don't think so. No. He practiced fully. Maybe. Jonathan Taylor is practiced fully. Maybe.

Jonathan Taylor is not playing. Jonathan Taylor is out. You would take the Colts if Richardson was playing? No, I would take Tennessee if Richardson was playing. I would take them anyways. If Flacco is playing, you have to take the Colts here. All the money is on the Colts. That's why Tennessee's moved out. I think Tennessee's moved out to two and a half because flacco's gonna uh richard's gonna play i should say yeah i don't know if i can bet

on the titans again man like i i just i'm not sure i can't if you're feeling it let's hear the case well will levis is playing i imagined yes i just think, just no, then I mean, it's going to, it's going to come down to this, Matt. And in the end, are we taking, are we taking will Levis at home as a favorite against the Colts or any

Dalton getting six points against the Falcons? That's what's coming down to. Or eight or eight or eight or eight. No, Con'Connell getting three points at home against the Steelers. Yeah, this is why I think we should take the goddamn commanders who are a team with a pulse. Because some of these teams, I just don't see it. But we can keep going. I think with this game, though.

Well, go ahead. Finish it off. Here's the thing with Washington. i tell you this in text message is that every single person that we fade matt is going to be the commander this weekend and you know that yeah every single person that's so that's why washington is no play for us let's don't say that okay continue it's fine with that or i do think though there are some of these spots where it's like yes we have to just take the stinky team and you know just live with the results yeah but i think we have to pick the right stinky team and will levis is a favorite i do not see as like

a winning formula no no thank god we bet on that so i'm i think i need to x-nay that one um that's fine there's other stinky dogs it's okay there are plenty of other stinky dogs this this game i'm Thank God we bet on that. So I think I need to X-nay that one. That's fine. There's other stinky dogs. It's okay. There are plenty of other stinky dogs. This game, I'm really curious. This is actually a good game. The Cardinals are going to Green Bay.

Green Bay has been all over the place, and this line just keeps moving towards the Packers. It's at five and a half now. I kind of liked Arizona all week, and now I'm seeing the line continue to move and I'm wondering what I'm missing here do you have a feel for this one? I had the Packers team total over in this game I just don't think the Cardinals are very good

they beat the Niners in a weird game right the Niners were up 23 10 at halftime and didn't score again it's very odd kicking problems were part of it, right? And Arizona scored late. They scored 11 fourth-quarter points to win that game.

I don't think Arizona's very good. It's just Jordan Love has been back. The Colts have just played better. Five feels like too much right now. I mean, I think it's Arizona or bust if you actually take a side in this game, Matt. I think that's just the general reason why. Arizona's on the road again. If this was college football, if it in this game, Matt. I think that's just the general reason why. Arizona's on the road again after,

if this was college football, if this was college football, Matt, we'd fade Arizona, right? Off a road win as a mediocre team, back on the road again, and it's a good quality opponent, you'd fade Arizona in a heartbeat. The NFL is a little bit different.

That might be the mindset behind the way the money's a little bit different. That's what, that might be the mindset behind, um, the way the money's going in this game. Yeah, I think that's probably right. I mean, I do think that, um, I, yeah, I don't, I don't still know what to do with this one. I'm, I, I don't know if the Packers are blowing anybody out. The Cardinals are like the classic backdoor team that we always love. It's like, oh, it's kind of close. Like maybe at the end of the game, whatever. The Packers defense has been good.

I mean, the McKinney, the safety is getting a lot of pub with all the turnovers. Like I get it. I would, I would, I don't know. I don't hate the Cardinals here, but it's an early game. The Packers are good. They take care of business. The the floors over 500 is a favorite um i don't know what should we add this one to the mix or not we can i just don't think it's going to to me yeah i don't think it will either all right this is such a weird week dude um this is the week that separates the men from the boys. And hopefully

we're on the right side of that. Uh, here's another one where I'm, I'm really scared of what you're going to say here. The bucks road favorites at the saints. Spencer Rattler has been announced the starter. Uh, if we're taking this side here, I think we have to unfortunately take the saints, but I, I just, just am not sure I can do it, Jeff. I mean, I like the Bucs a lot in this game. Okay. Because they're better. And the Saints have

a really bad offensive line with a quarterback making his first NFL start. It's kind of simple. Short week, back on the road. Short week against a playoff team. After you play the Chiefs, you're playing the Bucs. Three and a half is not as good as you could have gotten three

early in the week. And this number moved basically six points after the news of Rattler starting. But to me, it's Tampa Bay or pass. Yeah. I know. Well, some trends, you know, we can take or leave. Bowles is horrible on extended rest, eight and 15 straight up. Baker has lost six straight games on the road with extended rest.

Wow. That spans across all four of his teams. Yeah. And I don't know. This feels strange to me that this line isn't bigger tampa is a team that i feel like everyone likes and the saints are the saints stink man like i they've if you can shut down camara their only option is like beating you once in a while with those deep bombs to like feed it's a pretty interesting offense. But like, remember over the years, like the saints have always kind of figured out Mike Evans.

Like they've, they've always like kind of matched up. Do you see this Tampa team? But the saints are not as good as talent. They're not as just as talented as they've been in the past though. That's the problem. Yeah. The half point stinks.

I think we have to put it on the list, but yeah, I, this was, I did not really consider this one because i figured if we had to take a side it'd be the saints and i just have no interest but he could probably talk me into uh bucks actually oh boy jeff i'm looking ahead i'm like all right where's the one where i'm gonna make the impassioned case and like i'm not seeing a lot of opportunities here so let's move on to one where I'm very terrified of what's about to come out of your mouth the Steelers are going to Las Vegas to play the Raiders and we assume Aiden O'Connell uh we assume Justin Fields is still starting that was the latest indication today although

it does sound like Wilson will be active um we can we can just we can just skip it if you want. No, to make the case. It's Mike Tomlin as a road favorite. He's awful, Matt. We do this all the time. We've actually, I think we've done every single game this season, by the way.

I know. Because they're always in this spot. The mixed results. But like, oh my God. Oh, geez. Raiders, no Devonta Adams. Geez. I mean, I'm going to put it as a maybe,

but I think I like the next game much better for home dog anyways. That might be the one we have to take. Look, the Steelers coming off of a loss in this game against a team that has no pulse in the Raiders. I mean, I get it. This is the spot where you take a team like the Raiders. It doesn't matter who the Raiders. I mean, I get it. This is the spot where you take a team like the Raiders. Doesn't matter who the quarterback is. It's technically we should be taking

the Saints. We should be taking the Panthers, all these teams. That's how the NFL works, but it hasn't worked that way this year. I don't know. So let's leave the Raiders out. I just I don't think I can do it. I don't think I can watch other Steelers game either, to be honest. But go ahead and make the case. This is another AFC West battle here. Chargers

at Broncos, Broncos plus three. I have a feeling we are on the same side here. Yeah. Denver plus three in this one. So a couple of things here. Why are the Chargers a three-point favorite in this game, Matt? What have they done this season to be a three-point favorite? They're off a bye, sure. Herbert's a little healthier. Their tackles might play. But they still don't have any deep threats. The Denver defense is really good. Both defenses are very good. Both offenses are very bad, even with Herbert

playing. This is going to be a low-scoring game, right? Give me the three points with the Broncos. I feel crazy. I feel like I'm cheating getting three points in this game. This should be, in Denver, this should be be a pickup i don't get it i totally agree and the chargers the chargers are still banged up like we don't exactly i i have no idea why this is a big favorite i think people are just have been enjoying the horrible experience but i'm fine getting some points at home with denver it's going to be, I don't know.

Denver's defense, by the way, is like a really legit unit. Yeah. It's not a hundred percent healthy. Like I think the bloom came off the gate, the JK Dobbins rose that, you know,

that lasted a week. So this one, this one was a no brainer to me. We can finally, we have one. We feel definitely good about Denver plus three. Let's do it. Oh God,

we did it. We made it to the 425 games we got one all right lions cowboys uh lions link three in dallas which i find pretty surprising uh what do you make of this oh buddy um well i like Lions to score a bunch of points. They're off a bye, and the Cowboys, I think, are still without Parsons and still without Lawrence, their two best pass rushers and two all-pros. The Steelers cannot take advantage of it. The Lions certainly can. It feels like a high-scoring game.

I don't know, man. Do we trust Dak to cover this game? I don't know, actually. I kind of feel like the play here might be the lions. Um, Dallas, you know, I do feel like Dallas had a nice, obviously a big, a bit of a statement win, but I don't think Pittsburgh is very good Detroit off a buy. If you remember, there was a game last year, these two teams played that, um, came down to like a crazy referee call with like the illegal substitution or something right oh yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah so it does feel like the Lions are going to be one of those it's going to be a fu game for the Lions they can just hand the ball off a hundred times like I have a feeling

that the same logic from last week is going to apply here. So I think I'm on the Lions. It's a weird bet, but I kind of feel like this is the statement game for them. I'd rather be in the – okay, so I have a question. So we have Tampa Bay minus 3.5 and the Lions minus 3.5 as a favorite. The Lions is the much better wager, right? I totally think the Lions are the better wager. Okay. So I'm going to toss Tampa off.

That's why we'll discuss it later because we're not taking two road favorites probably. Yeah, I'm with you on – the Lions I think are the better way okay so i'm gonna toss tampa off that's what we'll discuss it later because i'm not we're not taking two road favorites probably um yeah i'm with you on the lines i think just are better they're a hundred percent a better team like it's not even a debate uh they should be fully healthy right like they're coming off the buy jared goff had that crazy i get it it's like you're kind of buying high on the lions but i actually feel like we're kind of buying low on the lions because they haven't had their big breakout week yet. So I like this one. I just realized that in a week of like home dogs, you kind of want to take some more of those,

but I don't know, man, I'm ready to fade Dallas after a primetime win. I'm with you. I'm I would be okay with the line to this spot. Done. All right. The other game that's on at that time is one.

I hope to not pay any attention to carolina's getting six at home against her cousins we could just skip it the panthers just don't have any players dude like their their offensive line is the only good part of their team it's now all banged up their defense is dead this falcons team like i i just i i can't trust atlanta to win a big game ever, and I don't trust the Panthers to cover anything at this point. You're right. I mean, I think we take the Panthers plus six in the spot over the years,

but it'd be too hard to do right now, in my opinion. They're just – you're right about the injuries. They sort of had that one- game bump with Dalton since then. It just sort of fell flat back on their face. I think it's Andy Dalton. Like everyone was like, Dalton, he's going to fix it.

It's like, dude, it is still Andy Dalton. Like it's, uh, it's not great. Um, all right.

Thank you for, for hearing me out on that one. I'm willing to be talked into either side on the next two. I don't feel strongly about either. The giants are getting four points uh they're missing malik neighbors they are playing the bangles who are reeling um i don't know who could take the bangles here but i don't know if we could take the giants either um i mean it has to be giants or pass right i mean i look at the numbers right now in this game

um what about the bangles makes you think they're gonna cover pass right i mean i'm looking at the numbers right now in this game um what about the bangles makes you think they're gonna cover this game i mean their offense has been amazing like there's nothing there they've done everything right on the offensive side i'm again i don't think we should just solely bet on a team based on this but the bangles have 90 of the money in this game yeah it's just it's if anything you take the giants but it's like what do you what do you do with this team without malik neighbors and probably singletary like yeah i don't know your holder doesn't take it i guess i'm gonna answer for you otherwise i don't either i don't see a lot of value on on the giants i

think that's probably probably that was like six i'd be like hell yeah but four i don't know man um it was it was at six i think and then it moved i mean people have hit that number and hit that number yeah i mean maybe on sunday this is a pass for us, I think. Okay, Monday night. The Jets two and a half point home dogs to Buffalo. They fired Robert Sala. We haven't talked about that on the show yet. We can. Bit of a shocker. Do you like them possibly getting a bounce back spot here against this Buffalo team that we can't really seem to figure out.

No. Worth noting since 2003 teams have fired their coach in season have gone 26 to 22, 16 against the spread in the following week. So they're covering a good rate. No, I don't Matt. And the jets are a battle organization and they're being held hostage by Aaron Rogers. And I'm not wager on them in this spot. The bills don't, Matt. And the Jets are a bad organization, and they're being held hostage by Aaron Rodgers,

and I'm not wagering them in this spot. The Bills, though, have some problems. The wide receivers are an issue. They don't have any right now, and they're hurt. The ones they don't have in defense is a problem with all injuries as well, Matt. But I can't back... Can you back the Jets here?

I think it's just a no play for us. If we needed a fifth, I would make the case. Here's my opinion on this one. No one seems to be on the Jets here. I think there's two really key injuries on the Buffalo side in Khalil Shakir and James Cook, who might end up missing this game. The Buffalo offense is so lean.

Kincaid has been really disappointing.ian colman has like had some moments but this is you know the jets defense is probably going to be energized their guy is now the head coach of the team right so it should be a nice spot for them everyone's kind of left them for dead right took the play calling away from nathaniel hackett in what had to be a bit of a diss to Rodgers and a like, hey, things are going to be a little bit different now. I just think Buffalo had such a strong start to the season and everybody did the thing that we do every single September when Buffalo starts hot.

And we say like, wow, this team, this could be the year, whatever. I just want to like remind you guys they beat the cardinals by six they knock two out of the game and beat a dead dolphin team by 10 they beat the jags by a thousand that's what they do when when their home big favorites they went they got killed by the ravens and then they absolutely blew a game last week to the texans that they should have won so they're not a team that I, that I trust a lot. And this jets team like might come out really energized.

Yeah. Monday night spot. And they're getting points. If the jets were laying two and a half, this would be a, a bills, no doubter, but I just kind of feel like this is an interesting spot to buy the jets.

But you know, Buffalo losing three games in a row would be a bit of a surprise. So, I don't know. That's kind of where I net it out on this one. Yeah, which would we get three if we had the Jets though, right? Yeah, I wonder if we could find a three out there, I would be intrigued by that. I just think it's not going to three.

That's it. All right, quickly. So, I think we have like maybe three yeses you ready for my three yeses let's hear it new england plus seven yep denver plus three and detroit minus three yep okay so the other ones we had up not many actually um jacksonville plus one and a half new york plus four and jets plus two and a half those are the only ones i think we had up that were left we talked about the cardinals for a second i don't like that one do you right cardinals are out and we talked about the saints for or i'm sorry the bucks for a second i thought we agreed that we're gonna only put one detroit

or tampa and not both fine i. Fine. I think we should, I think we should put Jacksonville in them. I think, I think they're getting healthier. They win these spots and I'm the biggest seller in the world on the bears. So we need one more. Is it Raiders? Okay.

So we need to take a really stinky dog, right? Yeah, probably. I mean, we took denver ready stinky dog and new england though boy jeff this is a tough week to to get to get to five um or do we just. Oh, man. I'm looking at our slate and we've got Lawrence and May and Nick's. And thank God we have golf. I'm trying to think of who else we can stomach. I don't think I can stomach i don't think i can

i don't think we can put the giants in play i don't think we can on sunday night be like you know who we need is daniel jones to keep up with the bangles um okay what about the jets did we want to do we want to consider them okay what about what the titans we talked to the Titans a lot no we're not laying points with Will Levis dude I just or do we just do Tampa Bay and be done with it what about the Jets though I mean

what happens if Rodgers throws another two interceptions and we're like crap we can fade Rattler in his first start what happens if rogers does another two interceptions and we're like oh crap um we can fade rattler in his first start we could do that the number's not good though number stinks i'm trying to think of like what the most principled bet we could make here um um um I mean I think the yeah the book would definitely say to take the Raiders here I think they're like they're

the Tomlin is a road fave thing but the Raiders are the Raiders could be dead dude like I they could 100% be quitting on their coach let's see what Rayvon has not just stealing someone else's pick we need to have an opinion no i know no one's even no one's even taking the raiders to this

game it's like no one's even hit it um kind of packers out to five and a half now while we've been talking yeah you like the jets huh the Jets, huh? Hmm. Or we just take the Commanders plus seven. Stop with the... Or we take the Browns plus nine and a half, honestly. Like, that one still seems like the... We can't do Browns. Really? No.

You really like the Commanders, don't you? Honestly, I think I'd probably... Boy, I can't believe I'm going to say that. Say it. I don't think the Browns are a terrible play at nine and a half. I think, I think getting Conklin back is huge for them, honestly. Like, I think that, I think watching their offensive line get absolutely mutilated last week can really get fixed with

hey we have a you know an all-pro right tackle back um the joku should be back too i think you know you're buying them in an absolute low and the eagles are still this inflated team where you know they're still the favorites to win the nfc east like who trusts them so you want newton plus seven detroit plus three denver plus three detroit minus three jacks plus one and a half cleveland plus nine and a half that's our five god it's so gross we have drake may be cleveland's like us i beat it i i'm i'm into another i don't want to take them but i i can't find our fifth yeah because we disagree on some of these other ones it's not even like an easy like uh let's just take a favorite and like ride

with them it's not even like an easy one of those like let's just let's be dumb and or do we take the bangles minus three and a half yeah you trust them no not really this is the most this is the least conviction we've had on this show all year like usually we come in we're like all right well we know we're gonna agree on these i've liked it i like denver that's the one we i like the most this week i like jacksonville a lot so i'm i'm feel good that we got both of those in oh man um all right i mean we'll do cleveland i guess i can't think of a better one. I mean, I keep going back to Tennessee, but I don't love it. Why do you like that?

I mean, you got all the public money on the Colts in this game. Tennessee off a bye. No, not. No, they're. No, mini bye, right? No, they're off a bye. right no they're off a buy they're off a buy i'm looking right here and stuff that's three and one against the spread by the way the titans yeah no they're not we've bet i

feel like we've bet on them every week and they haven't covered the thing oh maybe this is maybe this is opposite. Maybe this is one in three. It says three in one. I think we bet on them three times and we haven't covered any of them. Yeah, I know you're right. All right, so Browns plus nine and a half. We're not getting a better number than that.

All right. New England plus seven. God, this is the worst. I don't even want to watch. I'm just going to watch Ravens Commanders and just enjoy it. Or apparently not enjoy it because it's going to be such a blowout. New England plus seven. Detroit plus three.

Denver plus three. Jacksonville plus a point and a half. And Cleveland plus nine and a half. That's a lot of points in the NFL. All right. Well. Great man in his first start. Derek Goff is a road favorite.

The Browns at all. Just, just a brutal. Yeah. Well, we're going to start, we're going to wake up and we're going to get the Jags in the bag. We're going to be one to know we're going to look,

we can't push with Jackson all this week. There's a half point in there. We'd love that. God, this is the least, this is the least great I felt all week. Why don't you guys join us, though? Yeah, thank you guys for listening and watching.

And I feel like the NFL didn't put us in a position to serve you well this week. It's their fault. Correct, yes. It's their fault. Let's not blame. Their fault, yes. We need the Steelers to be on by for a week like i can't

talk about another another steelers game that every week we pay this is the first week i think we haven't been a part of the steelers game thank god i think so i think so too yeah i'm with you yeah yeah um all right buddy i am all talked out for the week. By Friday, I'm just like, I've talked a lot about sports. All right, everyone. We'll talk to you next week. Hope this five-up routine does well, buddy. Have a good one. See you, bud. Bye.