Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Week 6 Reactions and NFL Week 7 Best Bets

Episode Date: October 20, 2024

Geoff is back with another episode of Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You. On today's show, Geoff and Matt recap week 6 of the NFL. Plus, a look ahead into week 7 of the NFL with Geoff's Best Bets.Be sure to follow the pod to get notified when a new episode drops each week, and follow @GeoffSchwartz on Twitter/X for more NFL and CFB comments. Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You will be live streamed on Twitter/X and YouTube every Friday all season long.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's friday october 18th i'm jeff schwartz that is matt for this jeff schwartz is smarter than you we are glad to be here for your nfl weekend of wagering as usual we will go through all the games the national football league for the weekend and tell you our picks our thoughts and we'll end up with five for the weekend matt we were two and3 last weekend. We were 13-16-1 this year. Not the best start, not our worst start. It did feel like last weekend we sort of reset to maybe what the season's going to be, which is bad teams are bad. No more of these big favorites covering on a weekly basis, and so much more. Buddy. How are you? How's your week been? Are you ready to get going for this weekend?

Week's been good. Yeah. Excuse me. Last week, the public had a really good weekend. The public's had a really good weekend a lot of weekends in a row. And that's usually around, that happens. You know, usually it's like around week six. And now we're into like week, what this week seven like seven yeah this is when pretty soon the the chickens are going to come

home to roost and the the sharps are going to you know absolutely crush it like raymond got killed last weekend that usually means something's going on and this is the weekend to sort of zag back into what we know is true which is you know there's a ton of home dogs this week. Like there's going to be a lot of people betting on these big road teams as favorites. Like there's going to be a lot of people on the wrong side of a lot of bets. And that's,

that's where we like to be. So we're going to pounce. We're going to pounce this weekend. We are buddy. So what should we do? Should we get, should we get right into it? Anything you want to hit off the top?

What would you make of the game last night? I think the saints are just really, really bad. I mean, the saints were dead, man. Like the saints were on their third quarterback who looked better than both of their starting quarterbacks by the end of the game. And like, I'm actually pissed. I didn't bet this one. Like, I just, I didn't even really think about it because I wasn't going to lay points with

Bo Nix on a short week, but, like, the Saints had nothing going. They're this ass team. You know, like, I just, I don't know. I think the Saints are dead. We were all over this in the beginning of the season. We knew that that 2-0 start was not going to look great. But, yeah, Denver, good for Denver. Good for Sean Payton, I guess, right?

Yeah, I had Saints under 17.5. So that cleared easily. They scored 10 points last night. All right, let's get to the first game of the slate. And it just happens to be a disgusting game because we can't have nice things in London. Yeah, but I'm curious if you are a little intrigued by this one. It's Jacksonville laying five and a half or six to New England

in what amounts as a home game to Jacksonville. Jacksonville is the side here, Jeff. Oh, no, they're terrible. Look, Matt, you are what your record says you are, right? The famous Bill Parcells quote. Jacksonville's bad, buddy. They're really bad. And they have good football players, but they're not a good football team.

And I don't know how you can back them in this spot. Their defense is freaking awful, buddy. They allow so many points each week. And how do you trust them in this game to cover six points? I get the Patriots are what they are. Drake May might be the guy. He played better last week than anyone I think they had so far this season in quarterback.

It was a slow start, but finished fast. I know he had the knee thing, but he should be fine, right, to play. Buddy, you're not taking Jacksonville. We're not taking Jacksonville. Come on. We're not going to take them, but I like this one. I will bet this. I will put this in my picks pool.

This is another one of those lines like the the one last week that stood out to us was the Baltimore Washington line which ended up pushing where it was Vegas saying like hey there's a difference here and I'm I think this is like a really nice by Jacksonville time everyone's out on him everyone likes Drake May everyone thinks like Jacksonville is going to leave Doug Peterson in London, all that stuff. Uh, this is a rookie coach, a rookie quarterback making his second start his first, like, you know, this first international trip, Jacksonville is going to win this game. Uh,

I think that there's, you know, they had a bunch of weird, like their defenses is atrocious, but that's not a concern with New England, right? I don't want to put this in. I don't want to be watching this at 6.30 Pacific on Sunday, but I do think that the Jacksonville Jags are going to win and cover this one. Okay. All right.

Next up. Let's move to maybe even worse game. The Dolphins are going to Indy. The Colts are laying three everywhere right now. How about just no? This is a no bet. No bet. It looks like Richards is going to play.

Jonathan Taylor is not going to play. Dolphins off a bye, which I think offensively, Matt, we'll see a little bit of juice off this bye for the Dolphins. And the Colts' pass defense is really bad, right? So even if you don't have Tua Tagov alone which is not he's not going to play obviously I think Mike McDaniel will have something to challenge the Colts secondary and that'll keep the Dolphins in this game and Richardson to me and we know this not to me but to all of us his variance buddy like it's hard he will make a great throw throw, a bad throw, a great throw, a bad throw. So,

um, I think we stay away from this one. Um, many other fish in the sea. Oh, nice dolphins pun there. Uh, yeah,

I think if you're intrigued in like a money line, underdog bet this week, this is a fun one. I think the buy came at a really good time for Miami. Like they're still getting Huntley integrated. Like he, there's a story. He,

he like reached out to some receivers for some practice. I think McDaniel with his backup against the wall against this Colts team. With Flacco, I don't know if I'd feel this way, but with Richardson, I think the Dolphins are not a bad money line play. This game is probably the one I have the least feel for on the whole slate. Seattle at Atlanta. The Falcons are laying three. I've been down on Seattle this whole season. I know, Jeff, you've kind of been with me on that one, but Seattle gets a lot of guys back on defense this week, so I don't really know what to do here.

So, I'll tell you this. Geno Smith has been really good in the dome in his career. He's completed like 10% more passes, a lot of touchdowns, no interceptions. Falcons off a win at Carolina that felt like a bye week for them, right? 38-20. I think the over, which is the total right now is super high. Let me find it for you. I think it's in 51, 52-ish. This feels like an over.

51. Feels like an over game, an over. You get a 15 and a half and a fan duel it feels like this is an over game for me matt which would lean me toward maybe taking the points in seattle but i don't feel great about i think i think it would be seattle or pass i think pass might be the way to do it yeah i just don't i just don't trust either of these teams and i was i was a big seattle fade the last few weeks and i don't know they they're getting a ton of guys back in the secondary and atlanta is just such a goofy team like that every single game has been like this

wild end of the game situation and i think they're like a tough team to beat, but not a team that wins a lot of games by three. So pass for us there. Great game next up. Texans at Packers. There's two and a halfs and threes out there for Green Bay. I like this one. Do you have a feeling here? Yeah, Green Bay minus two and a half. Oh, man, I think I'm on the other side.

Oh. Take the case. I think Green Bay is really good, Matt. And the Texans are sort of itching. They are five and one and really haven't played great. You look at this in a couple ways, right? One is you could say, well, they're five and one. They haven't played great.

They're sort of due for a good game. I think Green Bay is pretty good with Jordan Love being healthy now. They've played some good football since he's been back. It took them a little bit of time that first game back against Minnesota. They lost the game by two, right? They blew out, who was it last week? The Cardinals last weekend. And they beat the Rams the week before that.

I think Green Bay is really good. And two and a half at home under that field goal. Houston back on the road again after playing the Patriots. And all the money is on Houston, man. Everyone's taking Houston this game. Interesting. Yeah, so I mean, the case for Houston is, I basically am just a little bit not sold on this Green Bay team.

Their wins when you look back at them. They lost that weird game to the Eagles. They beat the Colts and Titans with Levis, which is just odd all the way around. Then close loss to Minnesota that you mentioned at home. They beat the Rams when the Rams were dead. They beat the Cardinals. The Cardinals had that crazy comeback win against San Francisco the week before so we knew they

were kind of dead last week and now they're playing the best team that they've played yet by far Joe Mixon's back which is so huge for them and I just think this Green Bay I just I don't know I just don't buy this Green Bay team as being i think houston it belongs like i think in the conversation of who's the best team after kansas city it's like it's houston it's baltimore it's detroit i kind of feel like it's those three teams and it's here by themselves so you know stroud is way better as an underdog lafleur is way worse as the season goes on like those trends are good um but i i don't i don't know i don't feel super strongly about it if you were like green bay is my favorite this week i can get behind it

but no i don't i don't have a favorite person favorite side per se all right well i i'm going to be inclined to just go with you if you have a strong read so no no let's put it on the list i just like the packers here okay so then let's put it on the list. I just like the Packers here. Okay. So then let's just pass on this because we're on different sides. I'm afraid we're going to be on the same side on this one, Jeff. And that is Cincinnati's like five and a half. There is still a six out there. Yes, there is at DraftKings.

Yep. We are a shill for a six from wherever we can get it. Buddy, we're shopping around. This is what you do. Yeah. So a couple of things. They're playing Cleveland. In Cleveland.

What? In Cleveland. I didn't mention who they were playing yet. It's the Browns hosting the Bengals. Browns against six points. There's a couple of things here. So Nick Chubb is back for the Browns this week, which is a huge just moral boost for this team.

Here's the thing about the Browns that's really interesting. Let's just say, and look, you can't wager on this, right? There's just no way to do this. But let's just say in this game, Deshaun Watson gets hurt at some point in this game. Let's say second drive of the game, he gets hurt. They put in Jameis Winston. The Browns are winning this game if Jameis Winston plays, right? If they just decide at some point, like, hey, we're just going to bench Deshaun Watson, which just seems unlikely

to ever happen. Jameis Winston will give this team a spark, and they're going to be in this game late. They have a good football team. They have a really shitty quarterback. It's really bad. And so we saw last weekend, we covered that game with the Browns because they blocked a field goal. It wasn't because of their offense. However, their offense was better in the back half of that game. They actually completed and converted a third down.

I think Watson in the second half of that game was pretty efficient. And Joe Burrow against the Browns, 1-5, 63% completion percentage, 5 interceptions in 6 games. Passer rating lower than against other division opponents. So they kind of sort of have Joe Burrow's number in this spot. I like the Browns plus a 6, Matt. I love it. I love this play for us. Burrow's number one in Cleveland. His one

win was at home. Reminder that the Bengals this year, they've had some weird losses, some tough losses, but their wins are against Carolina and the Giants. And the Giants won. Their only real spark was a 50-yard touchdown run by Burroughrow that will never happen again like it was just like a very weird road win against a bad team without malik neighbors so i don't trust this team at all i think you're right about winston you know that's like a nice it's a nice possibility the other thing is the browns are getting healthier

right like they're like conklin should be back this week. They started the season really banged up. You mentioned Shubbs. This one, to me, just jumped out. It's an awful one to play, but this Bengals team has showed us nothing all year. They're good offensively, but defensively, they're a wreck. Yeah.

Yes, their offense is good and fun, but they put up 17 against the Giants and 10 against the Patriots. So, um, all right. So we've got one, uh, okay. Eagles at Giants. The Giants are, wow. There's three and a half now, uh, three or three and a half. Um, I don't want to do it, but it is the right play to make.

Um, three and a half is, oh, man. So it's Giants or pass, right? Yeah. God, Jeff. I don't think I can do it. I honestly just don't think I can do it. Okay, can we make it in our minds a fate of the Nick Sirianni-led Eagles, who seems to be a buffoon and clown out there,

arguing with fans, just continually looking like a weirdo on the sidelines, shaving his head to prove some point. He mentioned he called a defensive play on a given down that didn't work. The Eagles are not in a good way right now. They haven't scored a point in the first quarter mat this season in offense um the giants are injured right um andrew thomas is out their left tackle well but malik neighbors is back with neighbors or he's excuse me not back yet he cleared concussion protocol but assume he's gonna play this weekend but divisional dog this game is in new york man three and a half i'm fine with three

and a half in this spot yeah so i'm trying to see what the latest is for the injuries today uh goddard it looks like goddard and oh jalen carter came back to practice today but no mylotta or goddard and those are i mean those are huge andrew thomas is the giants are so thin like they do have some really good players and they just fall off a cliff afterwards right like if andrew thomas or brian burns or malik neighbors misses a game for them it's like who's left so i mean look you want to fade sirianni and hurts as a road favorite where it's one five and one in his last six or seven starts as a road favorite um but you know daniel jones sucks at home like we've faded him at home forever all the time yeah so i don't love this one but the the hook is is

makes it a possibility i put in the put in the may there. This is a play we've always made in the past. Yeah. God, it's so disgusting. Which is maybe not great, but our goal is to get winners here, buddy. All right. What do we got next? All right.

Another great game. Detroit at Minnesota. Minnesota laying one and a half. This briefly moved up to two, two and a half yesterday for a hot second. Yeah. Which we got that. Where are you here?

The Hutchinson injury worries me for the Lions. I think the Lions are better than the Vikings, Matt. But the Hutchinson injury, like what do they do without him? Right? They can't, they're not going to find a replacement, obviously. No. Do you bring extra pressure? Because if you don't do that, you might not get home

and give Sam Darnold the opportunity to throw the ball without pressure in his face. If you bring extra pressure, then that's one less defender to be in pass coverage, Matt. Jeez, I struggle with this one. Minnesota's at home. They have a bye, bye too as well. Yeah,

actually, I think so. Yes, because they played in London. They're off that bye. That's an interesting wrinkle. I don't really have a great one for this one. Do you? I mean, look, man, it's the public play, but I'm

on Detroit for sure um i think uh you know it it is kind of interesting that vikings are five and oh both straight up and against the spread so every week it gets less likely that they're going to catch the market by surprise right so at some point you know they're going to be over indexed i will say that like it does seem like all the smart people are on the vikings this week like all the sharps are on the vikings okay but the public you know the public's been good this year but i just i look man like i get it like hutchinson hutchinson's going to really impact the lions of course throughout the season but does it matter

against sam darnold like sam darnold's either going to beat himself or he's going to be awesome right so like that does like a pressure obviously would help i don't know if it matters that much for him no i do think that i also have this feeling like people say this about kingsbury all the time that like these very schemey sides of the ball like kind of get figured out as the season goes on they do like i kind of don't even feel like that could happen with Flores. Like he's got such like a unique thing. Oh, absolutely. Yes.

Yes. It's like once, once somebody figures it out, it's just going to get unlocked and people will be like, oh, you just have to do this. Like same with Darnold. So I, I don't know, man. I just think the line, I think the Lions are like probably like, you could say the Lions are the best team without Hutchinson. We have to see what they look like, but.

I think the Lions win the NFCc i'm all the lines i i'm the hutch injury just worries me about this this specific game till i see what they look like without them yeah i mean this to me this might be a copy paste of a conversation we have later which is it's one and a half if we're getting points of alliance against the team that we're not like that sold on i kind of feel like we just have to do it well i mean the copy paste one later i think we we are going to do i think i think we'll see as we go because that's like what you have you have to do it but i'll make i'll actually make a football case for that one but yeah i don't have a great conviction for this one all right you want to move to the next one yes we're saying detroit is a maybe right yes all right so you got three maybes this is this is going to be the one isn't it that you like you're going to like buffalo

laying nine and a half there's an eight and a half there's eight and a half it's eight and a half we're taking eight we're taking eight and a half at fanduel is this one of the ones that you guessed yesterday i'd like when you said before the show that you liked a big favorite i was like this is going to be it so here here can i can i give you my reasoning why sure and we've done this for Buffalo for years now. When they play home games against bad teams, they do one of two things. They either beat the shit out of the team, excuse my language, or they lose. Those are the two things.

There's no in between. So, for example, I'll give you an example. Jacksonville this year, they beat by 37. Now, Arizona, their first game of the year, they won by six. So it wasn't sort of quite the same way. They've also been on the road for three straight weeks now. They're back at home. Let's look at last season. They beat the Vegas Raiders 38-10 at home.

They beat Miami 48-20 at home. They did beat the Giants by five. That was kind of sandwiched between a couple tougher games. Beat Tampa Bay by six. But Tampa Bay's not bad, right? Then they lost to Denver outright at home. Again, it's either outright win or they beat the Jets the following week,

32 to six at home. Beat the Cowboys, 31-10 at home. This is what they do, man. They just beat bad football teams at home by a lot of, or they lose. So I don't think they're going to lose this game. I think the Mari Cooper trade is a huge deal for them, Matt. It's a big, it's more important for them matt it's a big it's more

important for them i think than it was to get davante adams in new york um i i'd like to i would take buffalo mice in half here no problems do you feel the same way the stat that everyone cites josh allen he's won 50 his 72 wins his career. 51 of those 72 have been over seven points. Really? I didn't know that's a thing. When the spread is six or more, he's 34 and eight straight up. And he's covered 25 of those 34. He's won by eight or more.

So they win a lot of blowouts. That's the TLDR of that. I think Tennessee is the most likely team to get blown out of any team like carolina has a little fight to them tennessee has no fight like as soon as they go down it gets so ugly so fast like it's just like oh a fumble six like oh a pick six like oh calvin ridley got eight targets and no catches like what's the fuck's going on? Like they're just that, they're that kind of team where like there is no bottom, you know? So I don't love this because it's a huge favorite,

but if there is a team to make a, to do a blowout, it's the Bills now and the Titans are the team to get blown out. So I'm open to this. I feel like just, we haven't done it this year. We've just taken this big favorite, have we? like just, we haven't done it this year where we've just taken this big favorite, have we? Like not, we haven't done

this once this season. It does feel like this is the game of do it. We saw last weekend, all the bad teams got their butts whooped with these big numbers. And I'm certainly not taking

the commanders minus like nine against the Panthers this weekend. So this is the one I think we do it on. We'll see how we go. I mean, there's not a lot of games I personally like that are left. So I'm curious how we get to our five here. But I would strongly put them in the five for me.

Yeah, let's put them in the mix. Amazing teaser game. Amazing six-point teaser if you could build it to get them down to two and a half. I'm going to run by you, Jeff, at the end of this. I have a seven-leg teaser that I don't see how it loses let's go okay so this that will be one of them i'm teasing the teaser that's uh there's something for you uh we can save time on commander's panthers uh it's eight and a half or nine and a half hey jeff maybe this is another leg of our teaser huh uh yeah i just could you should do moneyline

favorite parlay though too yeah or just get it down to two and a half like pretty panther commanding to win this but you know that's a big spread yeah uh hey jeff here's another teaser game the rams laying six and a half to the raiders. This assumes Cooper Cup is back. I don't know how you bet this. I've seen people I like that pound the Rams in this game. At five and a half when it opened, sure, but seven, no freaking chance, buddy. No chance. Yeah, the reminder that the Rams are one and four.

I don't see how they lose this game, but I'm not sure they are beating anyone going away um i'm excited for a super teaser though i'll tell you that it's great it's a great teaser number um all right we've got four games left and we have maybe one that we're positive about so here we go chiefs 49ers people are tuning in they tune in for this moment uh 49ers are one and a half point favorites. They're two at ESPN bet. Okay.

Interesting. So they're getting some extra money somewhere. Okay. Tell people why we're taking the Chiefs. Well, geez. I mean, when Mahomes is a field goal favorite or under, he's like 10 and one gets to spread, Matt. Here's a couple of things.

Why? One, they're off a buy, right? Ancillary to everything else, Andy Reid's really good off a buy. That's a known. But here's why I can't stand this game. When the Chiefs play the Saints on Monday Night Football, we tell you each week, right?

Don't bet on them. They don't care about this game. Or when they're in Atlanta, don't bet on them. They don't care about this game. Or they play the Chargers. Same thing, right? Don't bet on them. They don't care about this game. Or they play the Chargers. We say the same thing, right? Don't bet on they don't care about this game. Guess what game they do care about? This game on Sunday. When they care about a game like this, they beat the shit out of that team.

It's that simple. And they own the Niners right now. They've won five in a row against them. Maybe four in a row, including two Super Bowls, Matt. They play well against this team. They have a plan. They execute it. They stick to it. And they want well against this team. They have a plan. They execute it. They stick to it.

And they want to win this game. They don't care about the Saints winning that football. They win that game because they're better, right? You have to find a situation where they care about winning a game, and they care about winning this game, Matt. And that's why I like Kansas City in this contest. And the Niners, I think, are going to do too much. And we talk about this all the time.

It's just they're going to try to do too much to overcome the losing over the last couple of seasons to, to, to Kansas City. And we know Kyle Shannon is a favorite, not good, especially at home. So I like Kansas City are plus the two,

because I think they're really going to care about trying to win this game. I'm with it, man. This isn't one you have to think too hard about. And, uh, you know,

we, we gotta do it. You mentioned all the, you mentioned all the trends. trends i mean also it's worth noting like you know of the injuries like i i do think the there's just been like a lot of weird stuff going on with the 49ers this year right like the the the kicker getting hurt and like miss you know that game against the cardinals like they're they're just they just seem to have like something a little bit off and of course everyone's talking about there's no pacheco there's no rishi rice like i do think that i i like uh xavier worthy anytime touchdown this week like i think there's going to be like a lot of goofy stuff the chiefs

kind of unveil after a bye week in this primetime statement game where they're underdogs. I think they're going to open the bag, so to speak. So it's a coin flip of a game. I like getting the points at Mahomes anytime we can. Yeah, I'm in. All right, we got them in. All right, two for sure. Okay, we're not going to bet this. We have to talk about it.

The Jets are laying one and a half to the Steelers. The money's moving towards the Steelers, which is insane. This is the ultimate Mike Tomlin buy low spot, but I can't do it. No, no. I think it's the one time. I think we've bet on a Steelers game all six weeks of the season. Thank God we don't have to watch them. If you take your heart, I hope we will.

I earn my money. You earn your money, Matt. People listening right now, I hope you earn your hard, I hope, I hope, we will. I earned my money. You earned your money, Matt. People listening right now, I hope you earned your money. You worked hard for that dollar. If you put your hard-earned money on Russell Wilson making his first start in the National Football League this season, I'm sorry. That's a you problem, okay, Matt?

I would strongly advise you against that. I'd also strongly advise you to not wager the new york jets okay who can't do anything right panic traded for davante adams and still in my opinion are not good football team they have good football players i'll go football team they're not well coached they're not well run and aaron rogers is too in control everything they do they only scored look the Hail Mary happened right we have to count that but otherwise Matt it was 13 points against a Bills defense allowed 35 to Baltimore and allowed 23 to Houston and Houston lost their best offensive player well

not most droughts still there but their best weapon in Collins during that game like the Bills defense is not good right now and and and the jets couldn't move the ball on them so that's my take on this game i stay the frick away from this one i couldn't agree more i want to quickly talk about the devante and rogers thing and just what the hell is happening with the jets like yeah so next year so they made that move ostensibly because they didn't think their season was over yet right they basically said like we still have a chance i think they said to themselves like we're all in rogers has been clamoring for this guy forever he's available it's a third round pick who cares let's do it so like i understand that but like what is the goal like do they think

they're a super bowl contender legitimately because that's the kind of move you make if you think i think super bowl i think they do yeah but they think that means then that they think jeff olbrich an interim coach is going to come in lose a game to their division rival who's going to win the division now that they're going to like scramble their way to a wild card berth with a Rodgers who's already injured with this team that is completely disappointed across the board. Fully across the board. Everyone's not lived up to their promise this year. And then if they don't, then they're stuck with a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers

next year in the last year of his deal. I agree. Devontae Adams, who still has a bunch of years left on the deal and a lot of money. They're going to have to pay Wilson and Brees Hall. Like they are, they are like, this is a disaster. And it's because Aaron Rodgers won MVP four years ago. Like it's, it's almost as bad as the Browns situation, but they're at least like kind

of good. It's, it's under, I think it's underrated how much of how far they've pushed their chips in. Absolutely. And if Justin Fields was playing this game, I would take Pittsburgh. I actually think Russell's going to be better than Fields in this offense.

I think he is oddly like a Tomlin prototype. He's got a cannon, and he doesn't really make mistakes. But we're not betting this game. No, we're not. Then let's move on. Thank God. Fun game that I doubt we'll have a side on.

The Ravens are like three and a half to the Bucs in Tampa. I think Tampa would be the play here. I like Tampa. Okay, make the case. I think they're a good football team. They are good. They have three and a half points at home. I think they're just a good team. Getting three and a half points at home.

Baltimore's played some good football recently. I get it. Lamar, you can't stop him when he plays NFC teams, but he doesn't cover all those games, right, Matt? He doesn't cover all those games. And I just think that this is a game that the Ravens have won four in a row. They've looked sort of good doing it. The Baltimore, I mean, the Cincinnati game kind of turned out withstanding.

They're sort of due for not as good of a game on the road, outside. I just like Tampa a lot. I've been on Tampa most of the year. They score a ton of points. If Mike Evans is a little beat up, that does worry me. But, dude, we're going to get to Monday, and every single person is going to be on Baltimore Ravens in this game. And I get the hook here at three and a half.

I'll gladly take it. Tampa Bay, by the way, ninth in DVOA. They're pretty even. They're 10th on offense, 11th on defense. Baltimore's third, we know. They're first on offense, 13th on defense. I just like Tampa Bay in this game. I think they're a quality team to bet on.

They're playing good football. So I would take Tampa Bay here. I like it. in this game. I think they're a quality team to bet on. They're playing good football. So I would take Tampa Bay here. I like it. You talked to me. This one wasn't really on my radar, and now I'm fully in. You didn't mention, this is a primetime Monday night home game. After everything that's been going on in Tampa, they get to come back home and play for these fans who,

as you know well in North Carolina, have gotten the shit kicked out of them for the last few weeks. They're coming off of a 50-burger against the Saints. The Bucs, for the record, are 7th or 8th against the Rush this year in terms of yards per carry. Oh wait, no, actually, sorry, that was from some other stat. They traditionally have a good run defense anyway. So, you know, Vita Bay is playing.

Yeah. Yeah. So, I think that the other thing with Baltimore is like Baltimore gets cooked by good outside receivers. And Washington didn't totally have that last week. Bucs do. So, I think the Bucs are a nice play.

I'm into this. Good call. I'm down with the Bucs. All right. The last, we're not doing the other money game. Yeah, Cardinals, Chargers. What's the number we're getting right now? Two.

Yeah, no thanks, right? Yeah, no. I mean, I think it would be Cardinals or Bucs, right? Or tease the Cardinals, right? Up to eight. Oh, they're fun to tease. Through three and seven. Cardinals are so, right? Or tease the Cardinals, right? Up to eight. Oh, they're flunkey to get it. Through three and seven. Cardinals are so untrustworthy, dude.

No, you're correct. And Bears and Cowboys on a buy here. All right. So let's get through these games. Let's get to our five games here, and then we're going to do our big teaser, the Matt Ford big teaser of the week. It might be a sponsored segment from now on.

We'll talk to sports books and get it done. All right. Cleveland plus six and Kansas City plus two are in. I think we agree on those, right? Yeah. Okay. So we talked about New York plus three and a half, I think. Detroit plus one and a half.

Buffalo minus eight and a half. Tampa plus three and a half. So that's four for three spots, I believe. Let's put Tampa in. If, if you want. Let's put Tampa in. All right. All right. So now, so now we, so okay, here's the deal. You like Detroit, right?

I like Detroit. So let's do Detroit and Buffalo. Cause I, I don't love it. I don't like, we don't, we both agree that Giants is like just not. Not ideal. Pass. Yep. Detroit plus one and a half and Buffalo minus eight and a half.

We have a good Buffalo number right now. Okay. So Browns plus six, Chiefs plus two, Tampa plus three and a half, Detroit plus one and a half, and Buffalo minus eight and a half. Is that we're good with that? Let's lock it in, buddy. I like these. I like these two.

It's an eclectic mix. Like we've got some good teams getting points. Like that's rare for us. All right, Matt. I have my sportsbook opened. I am ready for... I have to put the contest picks in here for us for the week. I have...

Oh, no, wait. See, I did this one week, too. I have the Niners instead of the Chiefs because I can't I'm a dummy. So here, let's put these. Okay, tell me your give me your big your big wager here.

So let's make it a six point teaser. And these are lines that have shifted and are different in different books. So let's, we might have to play around with it a little. So let's have let's, i'll go in order of the the chronology here so we're going to make jacksonville a pick we're going to tease that down to just even okay then the other one o'clock game we're gonna do is hold on buffalo buffalo to two and a half for sure uh what is this the week seven schedule i mean i can just read you my outcomes here uh oh no i got it uh we could we could make this an eight leg tease and add the browns plus 12 we could do that yeah I don't mind that. Okay. Yeah, let's do that and take...

Well, I had Houston plus nine in one of these legs, so we could potentially take that one out. Okay, so Houston plus nine. Okay, what's next? The next one would be Detroit plus seven and a half, which is, like, amazing. Okay. Then I have the Rams down to essentially a pick i think

it's half point okay and then kansas city plus seven and a half okay so that the uh a six point teaser would pay out eight it's plus 800 all right what What bust there? The Rams aren't losing to the Raiders. Oh, you can also add Washington to minus two for this. Yeah. It's plus 1300 now. I don't know. I mean, Jacksonville losing outright. Jacksonville is the one.

We can take Jacksonville out and put Washington in. Why don't we do that? And that's a seven-legger? It's a seven leg, six point teaser plus 800. I mean, look, other than the fact that no teaser ever hits,

that it's way too easy. That seven things need to be correctly predicted. This can't lose. No, can't lose. Remember, um, five dimes used to do 14 point teasers or 19

point teasers yeah dude nick weiner our old producer loved those he loved the super teas and he would text he'd be like what do you think of this one it'd be like a 13 and a half point teas and it'd be like do you like the ravens like plus 16 and a half against the Chiefs it'd be like what is wrong with you like a nine leg would be plus 100 yeah exactly you're like I guess this is a good idea no it's not uh um I bet you're Maryland Terrapins this weekend hosting USC you and Gabe going at it this weekend oh wow I didn't even know they played no yes, I told you. I don't follow my team in college at all. The Terrapins and Trojans this weekend. Yeah, I'm getting pumped up for Maryland's college basketball season.

They have this center that's really exciting. Everyone's doing all the midnight classic, the midnight tip-off things they always do, but it's not midnight anymore. It's like at 8 p.m. You know where that started? Where? College Park, Maryland. Lefty Wies anymore. It's like at 8 p.m. You know where that started? Where? College Park, Maryland. Lefty Wiesel. It started Midnight Madness.

He sure did. Wow. Yeah. Okay. It's a blue-chip program that's disguised as one that hasn't won a title in 22 years. All right. All right, guys. Matt and I are going to start a political podcast by the way and just a political betting podcast i i have lots of money in their offshores by the way

and lots of money on this election um i think i'll be right if i do we'll have we'll throw a party um yeah you're buying i'm buying if we can pull this off i have a plus 400 ticket on one of them one of the candidates. My best bet of all time was the day Joe Biden announced I bet him to win for president. And it was plus 1100. We've talked about this before. The night of the election in 2020, I bet Joe Biden at plus 800. I hit it every hundred number until it went to zero, until it went to even money. It was the most ridiculous overreaction I've ever seen.

They called Florida and Ohio because they count their early voting immediately where some states don't, right? Some states wait until election night. I think Pennsylvania changed that though, right? This year they're going to start counting like three days beforehand. It doesn't matter, but I think

they changed that. But a lot of states didn't start counting absentee ballots and early mail ballots until the night of the election so florida ohio announced as to they go to trump and biden went to plus 800 and it's like they haven't counted 48 other states like it was and he was gonna win those anyway yeah yeah and it was it was crazy so um yeah i think you've been on politics which by the way i believe it's becoming legal in U.S. markets pretty soon. Wow, that's going to be a game changer because people are going to really know stuff. Yeah.

So I got a little bit of a hint that J.D. Vance was going to be the Republican nominee, so I got to hit that a little bit earlier this year. The policy, yeah, you're right. Insane information on it is going to be big, and limits will be set, obviously. There will be limits on those things that you can do. But no limits on us, guys. Browns, Chiefs, Bucs, Lions, Bills. Let's do it.

Enjoy your weekend of football. I know you'll enjoy mine. Oregon tonight, by the way, 8 o'clock p.m. at Purdue. The Spoiler Maker is looking to spoil it for us. It's not going to happen, though. We're going to win. All right, guys. Talk to you next week.

Take care, everybody. Bye. See you, though. We're going to win. All right, guys. Talk to you next week. Take care, everybody. Bye. See you, bud. you