Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Week 7 Reactions and NFL Week 8 Best Bets

Episode Date: October 25, 2024

Geoff is back with another episode of Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You. On today's show, Geoff and Matt recap week 7 of the NFL. Plus, a look ahead into week 8 of the NFL with Geoff's Best Bets.Be sure to follow the pod to get notified when a new episode drops each week, and follow @GeoffSchwartz on Twitter/X for more NFL and CFB comments. Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You will be live streamed on Twitter/X and YouTube every Friday all season long.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's friday october 25th it is jeff schwartz that is matt for this jeff schwartz is smarting you as usual on a friday we are previewing the national football league schedule for saturday well not saturday yet sunday and monday we'll give you our five favorite wagers of the week we're slowly digging out of a hole that we caused for us in week two matt three and two last week 16 18 and one so we're making our way back to 500. Could have been 4-1 last week. I feel like every week it could have been something, but it wasn't. And we'll give you guys our

five picks as we go through the NFL. Before that, Matt, Thursday Night Football happened. There was a face mask that was uncalled, right, at the very end of that game. I want to make a point at the top about how we talk about officiating. Okay? Officiating

is not good at times in the NFL. Let's admit that. It's not hard to say that, right? It was not good at the end of that game. But one thing we can't do, and we shouldn't do, is then go on these tangents, Matt, of saying, well, the Vikings would have won. It's unfair.

They were down eight points with no timeouts left. The ball goes to the 20. They were down eight points with no timeouts left. The ball goes to the 20. They need 80 yards in a minute 45, no timeouts, and then a two-point conversion. Why can't we just say officiating stinks? But the Vikings got outplayed in that game, Matt. That's what happened.

Confirms. Yeah, it's like those, you know, if you're a fight fan, it's like, oh, you lost on the cards? Like, should have won the fight. Like, you got to make a demonstrative statement. You got to win. I mean, the game, I found it to be so odd, too. I'm glad you brought this up first because people were assuming,

it's like, well, then they would have had a chance. It's like they were at the five-yard line or whatever. Like, it turned into a safety because Darnold was, like, backed up into the end zone and by the way he hadn't completed a pass it felt like the whole second half like it just didn't seem like they were like on a roll and then they got screwed so yeah I mean I could make the joke of like well of course the Chiefs fan thinks there's no problem with the refereeing in the NFL of course it doesn't alter anything but no it I honestly did think I was like this is a ridiculous

take by the whole internet here of saying all the Vikings, oh, they could have had it. They were getting their asses kicked. Correct. They were. They deserve to lose. Rams, by the way, and we can talk about more of this with the 49ers.

I have a Rams to make the playoffs ticket, to win the division ticket. Feel much better about that at the moment with Pukunuku and cooper cup alive right now not alive they weren't dead but alive and active for this rams offense it's more about active i mean they've been when they're with all three are together cooper cup hogan akua and matt staff for the offense especially with the way williams is playing right now and the offense line play well last night um rams are alive to win uh to win the uh

the division right now all right matt let's get into i want to ask quickly what are the odds i was going to look it up while you were talking because well they're probably not up today right because of the games yeah but i do think the the rams i mean if i'm just like thinking about who wins the nfc west right now i think think the Rams might actually be who I pick. Like they they're coming, like their defense has definitely gotten better. I think they're bi-week like clearly something kind of like Jared verse like it's up right now, by the way,

Rams are plus three 70. They have the, they're the worst odds to win the NFC West. Wow. I'm going to make that wager right now. Yeah. I'm actually, I'm going to put that in too.

It seems like what interesting those are plus 370 to win the nfc west maybe we should bet that he texts his friend who lives in new york and can make legal bets well actually i already have this wager though i'm not gonna make it again i already have well it's it's a good play and like i you know we'll get to san francisco to San Francisco and Seattle and Arizona in today's show. But I, I, I think they have the highest ceiling and they have the fewest,

like, wait, what's going on with this person? Like, of course, Nakua and cup could, could both have some sort of setback, but I have a high ceiling.

I have a three 30 to win the vision. So we can just sit tight on that. Okay. Love that. Can I bring up one more thing on this? Yes. I don't remember if we talked about it last week, but the, every team that plays the lions the week before loses.

This was another example of the Vikings after a brutal long game against the lions that had to go on a short week. I bet this Rams game. Reddit. I felt perfectly feel good about it. Let's let's keep an eye on that for, I think Chris long originated that take. Let's keep an eye on who plays the the lions yeah one other thing the niners thing forever like whoever played the niners yeah it was nice yeah and it's because

they were so physical now it's detroit one thing i do want to mention too last week i'm looking at my sheet from last week of all the stuff we wrote down and agreed on i have written down a six-leg teaser that hit yes plus 600 yeah i also have written down miami money line which hit like we were just we were just giving out free free bucks on this show man like i also wrote down russell wilson probably gonna have a good game like everything just kind of fell into place last week despite a couple of misses you know tampa bank and kansas and uh cleveland were tough but you know yeah um yeah that we maybe we'll do a mega teaser again with the last week it just opened up for me i just i was like this is so easy to me i love it and sometimes you just kind of jump on those i love that um all right you want to get in the games yeah we should um why don't we start

with oh interesting this is this line has moved a bit the cardinals are at the dolphins two it looks like he's playing so this line has moved in favor of the dolphins the dolphins are four and a half point favorites four and a half now yeah i hadn't seen this line today any four still available i'm i mean this was three and a half a day and a half ago so this is really moving i have three and a half myself uh obviously we can't give out numbers that aren't available at the time of the podcast um i'm gonna see if there's a four anywhere uh there is a four at circus still so there's a there's still some fours available um i like i like dolphins minus format um yeah two is back and healthy and we're going to talk about this when we get to a couple other teams uh

the idea of of confidence matt right and how a team prepares during the week knowing their quarterback is back or knowing their quarterback is better and the entire team practices a little bit differently, right? Just a different mindset. And then we're going to see that here with the Dolphins that have really struggled without Tua, like really badly. They've lost other quarterbacks as well. They're playing a Dolphins team, a Cardinals team that's not very good.

They allow a ton of points. It does feel like this is a great spot to take Miami here, minus the four. With Tua back healthy. I mean, Tyreek Hill even mentioned this. He like something like the Ferrari's back like essentially like that like we're ready to go I think Miami puts a hurt on Arizona I like this one um especially we can snag the four I think I'd even be fine at four and a half but um you know yeah it's like two is maybe not going to come back and be like immediately as good as, you know, we remember him at his best. But I think this Arizona team is a real paper tiger. Like they've they've had their moments this year, but like Kyler has not been good. He's not throwing for a lot of yards. He had that little scramble touchdown run against the Chargers that basically decided that game. he had that little scramble touchdown run against the chargers that basically decided that game their offense is not humming barbara harrison hasn't looked great jerry mcbride hasn't been

like this dynamic tight end that everyone thought he was going to be and then on the for their defense their defense is really really bad man and they have some injuries in the secondary they have some injuries up front like i don't think two is going to be in a hurry at all this game. It's also a short week flying cross country for Arizona. And it's going to be humid as hell in, in Miami. It's going to be a 60, 60% humidity in Miami, which is like not something you're used to coming from an indoor team in

Arizona. So this just kind of feels like one of those games where you look up and it's maybe it's like three, nothing in the first quarter. And then suddenly it's like 20 to six. Like it's just going to be one of those games where i think the the dolphins too need to kind of make a statement here um and uh so yeah i i'm i'm in favor of this one i think we'll have to take four and a half by the way that feels that's fine yeah okay four and a half nothing we can do um okay so that's in uh god some of these start to get pretty ugly pretty quick jets

at patriots the jets are laying a full touchdown at seven uh i don't know how anyone could back either of these teams in this spot do you i mean i think it's new england or bust right but that feels like not the place you want to be in this situation right i mean the jets being standpoint for anyone feels rather ridiculous um but you you just you can't lay it with new england right now you just can't they're they're they're bad no yeah and it's like the week after they were called out by their coach and like that could go one way or the other the jets beat this team already i this just i don't know this feels too too odd to odd to me. And I honestly am like, not even that interested in teaser here. It makes sense, but pass. Um, all right. Falcons at bucks, the bucks are down everybody off another short week where they got bruised by the Ravens.

They're two and a half point home dogs. Everybody loves the Falcons. It feels a little bit, a little bit spooky to me but i'm curious your thoughts uh i like tampa bay if we're getting in this game interesting um it's more just a anti-falcons wager more anything else but i would have loved three two and a half i feel less good about right i think that if we get to three that might get to three by kickoff on Sunday. I just don't think the Falcons are very good. And, but Tampa has no Mike Evans in God. It's a problem.

Like, I think that, I think you just kind of have to stay away because of that. Otherwise I think it'd be Tampa or bus, man. I think Tampa's a good football team. Like they, that game the other day was very odd.

Should have been a 21, nothing, right? A penalty brings back a touchdown, and Mike Evans dropped a pass because his hamstring exploded on him. Otherwise, they're in that game. They're 13th in DVOA.

Atlanta's 16th. Atlanta's defense is 24th. They're just not good on defense, Matt. I would take Tampa Bay plus 2.5 for pass here. That's a pass. I think then, cause I think like who's going to be Tampa's wide receiver one. Like,

Oh, I don't know. No, you're right. It's a problem. Absolutely. It's going to be a lot of Kate Otten and it's going to be a lot of like that guy.

What's his name? McMillan. I don't even know the guy's name. Good from Washington. Yes. Yeah. Okay. But I think,

you know, he's going up against aj thrall like they like the falcons have like a pretty nice little secondary a pretty nice pass rush this is just a stay away to me i just i can't buy the bucks uh they're so much different with with evans in there and they're even more different with evans and godwin in there yes so i think it's just a stay away okay we'll stay away okay titans lions i think i mean we we did it last week i feel like that was our one that was our one chance to do the big home favorite against the titans and we hit it pretty easily with buffalo up to 11 and a half

now we missed the number this was a 10 and a half earlier in the week and i stared at it and i was like i should bet this and i didn't so i hit i thought buffalo would blow them out by four touches i think we talked about this right and they end up getting there pretty easily i did a i took the highest number i could find for baltimore mine i mean for the the bills minus 23 and a half at plus like 600 plus 530 something like that and they scored like the final play of the game. It was fantastic. They won by 24. Oh, it was a good weekend, Matt. I needed it the worst way. That was a really nice play.

That was one I felt like I was very invested in that as we were watching and texting on Sunday. It was fantastic. That was a fun one. Yeah. All right, so nothing on that. What's next? Okay.

Oh, God. DRI. The Packers going to Jacksonville. No. Jacksonville is plus four. No. four no no no i don't even know you want the packers right i would imagine no oh no we're not betting on jacksonville no chance in hell there's no chance i'd rather take new england plus seven at home against the jets and take jacksonville plus four i don't know yeah i mean you're right like i i get sucked into jacksonville every week

um they stink i you can't trust them the packers are just this like the packers to me feel like a team that's just so lucky like they go through these games where they have these horrible turnovers they get they have so much turnover luck on defense jordan love is like all over the place but jacksonville's defense is so bad so i don't know i don't like you can't trust them that's let's stay away from that one um okay lost my spot here colts at texans the texans are laying five at home yeah which is a curious number i guess that means richardson is playing can i entice you on the houston texans minus five you could actually i actually see they're bad what are we doing here the the the culture not good football team and the richard

is not good this game or we played week one right we took the colts i think in this game indianapolis what about indianapolis is good richard has shown no has shown nothing this season but they're not playing flacco. They're playing Richardson, right? I know. That's why I'm saying that. Yeah, I don't get that. I would gladly take Houston here. No problem in this situation.

I don't think Indianapolis is very good, Matt. And Houston's off a loss where they should have won. They were plus three in turnovers and lost. Houston's not as good as they were last season. But they're better than Indianapolis. How does that cover this game? They're going to have to – they're a bad defense. They have to play really well, and Richards is going to have to make a bunch of crazy plays, which he certainly can do,

but he's not great at. Right. I mean, trying to see what the injuries are here because Taylor's been up in the air. It looks like him and DeForest Buckner are going to play, which is – Buckner especially I feel it's so huge for Indy um I'm I hadn't really considered this one to be totally honest but it does feel like they it does feel like the Colts have no shot at winning this game um the Colts are 10-1-1 in Houston since 2013, which is kind of interesting.

There's always this wheel of death in the AFC South that none of us can remember because all these teams are so bad. Stroud is 1-2 against the Colts. We don't totally buy those trends. But the only thing with the Texans that's a little concerning is last week, even though they had a nice output in scoring, Tank Dell and Stefan Diggs, they didn't seem like they could get anything going through the air,

which was a little bit bizarre. I don't even think Tank Dell had a catch. And Nico Collins is... I did not think Nico Collins was the key to that whole team, but maybe he is. Yeah, his loss has been big. Yeah, Colts have a decent run, especially if Buckner's back. So Mixon maybe won't get as much you know have as much success i i'm okay i'm open to this and there is a

four and a half by the way um so let's put it on the list okay what do we got next all right so we've got two maybes well one we really like uh next up is ravens at browns oh buddy oh and it's creeping up jeff it's creeping up, Jeff. It's up to eight and a half. It wasn't like 11. It went down to eight. It's back at eight and a half. Yep.

Okay. Remember I told you about the Dolphins and the confidence that you're going to have playing with a different quarterback? Love it. Sean Watson was the worst quarterback in the NFL. There are even metrics showing he was worse than Jamarcus Russell at certain points in his career. The Browns did not convert on 26 straight third downs.

You put in Jameis Winston, not only are you just automatically better, but the rest of your team is going to be better because they're going to feel like they can win the game now. When they haven't felt this way the entire season, Matt, haven't felt this way the entire season. This number is way too big in my opinion. The Browns have Nick Chubb back, and they're good on defense when they're allowed to get a little bit of rest.

They're not good when your offense doesn't convert on 26 straight third downs. They only allowed 14 points last weekend to Bengals' offense, and we agree it's really good, right? The other touchdown was a kickoff return, first point of the game. Love Browns here. Favorite bet of the weekend. I have them plus nine. We'll take eight and a half

because that's what we have on the show right now. That one is in Sharpie in our five. Yep, I completely agree. The Browns are also just getting healthier on the offensive line.

They're Miles Garrett's off the injury report this week. I think this is a really, really nice spot for the Browns, which remember Vegas always seems to favor by a couple points but no one's backing them also for baltimore by the way like just like i just want to pull up their schedule quickly because they've had like this run of games

that has at some point they're just gonna hit bottom even if they win this game by seven like they have that crazy win against dallas they blow up buffalo overtime at the bangles that you know good game against the commanders then this you know slug fest uh on a short week at tampa it just doesn't feel like this is the most important game in their schedule could be a letdown spot i'm not sure they're gonna win letdown spots so we love we love the browns unfortunately tough for us uh that we going to make this hard on ourselves on Sunday. Okay, Eagles at Bengals. Bengals playing two and a half.

This is such a tough one for me. I don't have a strong feel, but I'm curious. I don't because to me it would be Eagles, but I don't trust Nick Sirianni at all in any game, any situation. Even last weekend, they beat the shit out of the Giants, but Jalen Hurts in the offense was still sort of like not coming exactly how they want to be. Sort of the story of their season.

They took advantage of a poor Giants offensive line. They had eight sacks in this game, I believe. Maybe it was seven or nine, somewhere around, but it just rounded to eight there, Matt. Bengals' offense is really good. Bengals' defense, I think, can still be had, but I don't know if there's Eagles on the road. I think it'd be Eagles or bust,

but I don't know if there's anything else in that. Yeah. I think I might like Cincy here, to be honest. Looks like Orlando Brown is playing, which is helpful for them. Eagles have a very vulnerable secondary. You mentioned the coaching. I don't have a good feel here, though. I don't really want to make an impassioned case for Cincy.

So I'm fine to lay this one off if you were on opposite sides. No, I don't have a strong feel. If you'd like Cincinnati, we could do it. I just think it would be Eagles for me, but I don't have a strong feeling you'd like Cincinnati we could do it I just think it would be Eagles for me but I don't have a great feel for it yeah I mean basically like the case is essentially like the Eagles are this are this team that I think Vegas is really overvaluing like I think there's they might still be favorites to win the NFC East despite not playing really well ever um bad strength of schedule and like this is this is when the Bengals like start to sort of turn it around every single season the Bengals also being the giants Panthers and some other bad football

team. Yeah. The Browns. Yeah. Yeah. I don't trust them. I think this is a layoff. Um,

good. I'm glad you stopped me there. Uh, why don't we go to next game, which is bills at Seahawks bills are land three oh geez yeah i feel like in every situation we always take we would take seattle in this spot um i don't love it i don't love it do you no i actually think i'm i maybe land on buffalo here um i just look i'm i'm just not a believer in seattle at all and it's another week with cooper

i think that their offense is just you know i think i think buffalo's offense can travel well i don't think these i don't think these teams are on the same level. I think Buffalo is a Super Bowl contender, and I think Seattle is this make-believe team that has had some moments. And if it comes down to, like, cool, then Seattle's going to open up the passing game and throw it around, then it's like, Buffalo can

handle that. I would be on Buffalo here, but I don't feel strongly about it. I don't feel strongly about it either. Alright. We don't have many games left, geez. I know's there's like one or two i like and then then we're i don't know what we're gonna do here uh saints at chargers i don't know how the chargers can be favored by seven against anyone maybe the corpse of the saints is the only team i mean the saints are not gonna score at all in this game whatever the saints team total is just take the under we're not gonna score yeah i don't think we can play this one i the chargers man like they are the worst dude i don't like they

were always the chargers man always the chargers they they they uh herbert threw for 349 yards they lost didn't score touchdown i mean so i actually i I mean, look, you're going to defend them, but I watched that game and it's the same thing about the confidence that you've been saying this whole time. Like, I don't think they believe in him in the way that Herbert. Yeah. Like they don't win this. I mean, I've been calling him empty calories for years. Like he hits all the throws and then except the ones that matter.

And some of them aren't his fault. Some of the times the receivers are terrible. But I think when you get in that habit of like well i did all i can and like everybody else kind of dropped the ball like you don't see that with these like really strong leaders like i feel like it's something i think it's something about he has all the ability but the difference between him and the best guys he He hasn't shown that. The winning, right? Compared to other players of his similarity. Yeah, and it's just exhausting. It's like, remember everyone was like, well, Harbaugh's

going to take that job in LA because of Justin Herbert and how awesome he is. And it's like, their team is their run game and their defense. Like, what are we doing? I never believed that. Alright, well, there's my Justin Herbert rant. It's not the first or the last. Bears at Commanders.

The Bears are three-point favorites in D.C. Sounds like Jaden practiced a little today. So if Jaden plays, then this line will change a lot. I think this is a bit of a hedge. I don't know. I don't think we can play this. Hail to the Redskins, buddy. I like Commanders a lot in this game. Interesting. Even Redskins, buddy. I like the Commanders a lot in this game.

Interesting. Even with Mariota, potentially. Yeah. No, with Mariota. I'm assuming Mariota's going to play. The Bears are not any good, Matt. What do we do? The Bears are 4-2.

I think they've beaten one team with three wins. The rest have two wins or one win. The rest are four and two. They've beaten the Tennessee Titans, the Rams, who were super injured in that game, if you remember. The Panthers and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Yep. The commanders, by the way, look,

Mariota, I think, in this spot is a perfect spot for me he's not a long-term solution ever at the starter position a week to prepare they're cooking on offense and more importantly matt their defense is getting better like each week they get better a little bit better no surprise defensive head coach i would i would surely be happy with washington plus three here. And look, this is the best number we've seen all week. Yes. Because if Jaden does play.

I don't think he's going to play, by the way. He's day-to-day or hour-by-hour. I don't think he's going to play. I'm fine with taking Mariota in this spot, backing Mariota and the commanders. Interesting. I mean, I do think the Bears, in in theory will be able to throw all over washington and they do have a good run defense in theory but we haven't seen them really go up against a run a run offense like this correct yeah um i also do think like if it is one of those like jayden's out for a week can we make it work like kingsbury has proven that he can scheme away and mario does a lot of

things that jayden does just not as well it's interesting play i would be open to this i mean i do think washington like they're a professional outfit you know like they're a team they're going to show up if they say we have to win this one one week so that we can stay in front of the division like i think they'll be motivated to do so. I'm into this. Do you know what the Commander Stadium is called now? I do, but only because I'm a fan of the team. Who is Northwest? It's some bank.

Yeah. It's not a great stadium as you know, as well as I do. My last NFL game broke my leg at FedEx Field. God. Wait, I forgot about that. What team was that with? The Chiefs? Giants.

With the Giants. Yeah. What year was that? The Chiefs, we went there in 2013 in the snow and won like a bazillion to nothing. That was a sad day. There's a photo of FedEx Field coming back from halftime. It was like 5,000 fans. Yeah, covered in snow. We were up 35-7 or something

at halftime. That was a really dark day. That was when it was like, this is never going to get better. What year was the Giants? 13? 15 when I hurt my knee. When I hurt my leg. Who was your quarterback? Eli. It was like end of Eli and

last year of Kurt maybe. 15 would have been, yeah, Cousins. Yeah, it had to be Cousins, right? Right. So it was probably a good game until it was not great for you. We were losing and then we came back and Odell made this like ridiculous diving catch in the end zone, like some crazy Odell catch,

and we got kind of close. I have one of these moments probably once a week on this show where i'm like oh right like my stupid friend jeff like played with eli and odell against the team i rooted for here's the box score in this game cousins was 20 to 29 for 302 what in2. Classic. In a loss. What? In a loss. Classic. No, he won. No, no, no.

Oh, they did win. Okay. Yeah, you guys beat us 20-14. Alfred Morris had 23 kills for 78 yards. Jordan Reed and Deshaun Jackson were your two leading receivers. Matt Jones caught a pass. Pierre Garçon, Ryan Grant, morris jameson crowther still on the team yeah he is he came back yeah he went to the jets now he's now he's back i'm

sure people are are loving our uh commanders wide receiver seven uh depth chart talk here but um it is worth remembering that uh you were a real football player who was awesome. It's thanks for the reminder. I needed it. Apparently the Panthers, who you also played for and also got smoked by Washington at Denver. Denver favored by 11 is just like an F you. It's like, how bad are the Panthers? How bad is Bryce Young?

Well, Bryson has no dionte johnson and adam thielen they're both out this team like what is happening i took the panthers team total under 16 and a half as my best bet on my bear bets podcast so that's where i'm at that's before this news came out i mean you just can't bet on denver though you can't bet denver beating anyone by 10.5. Has Denver played one NFL team this year? I feel like every week it's like, the Saints, the Raiders, the Panthers.

And Sean Payton's going to be 5-3 after this, and everyone's going to be like, wow, this guy's amazing. Yeah, you're right. Well, it'll be nice. We'll bet against them next week. Okay, Chiefs at Raiders. I mean, Raiders are 9 and a half point home dogs there's there's part of me that kind of

wants to take the chiefs here i know right right because they the chiefs got the raiders have been such assholes to the chiefs all off season it does kind of feel like the chiefs would unload it this week but you can't do it but it does feel like this game could be like 20 to 10 you're sweating it out at the end yeah like gardner minchu whatever corpse of a quarterback they have for the raiders trying to but like the chiefs offensively i don't know i just bet on deandre hopkins to have over his receptions that's what i bet on and i like raiders team total under whatever it is like the chiefs defense is maybe the best unit in the whole sport right now so all right we'll pass this we'll pass we'll

pass on the chiefs yeah are you petting the dog over there is that what's happening no i'm just just my hands on my water bottle my dog's okay right now i'm just moving i just saw something happening off camera what's going on over there i'm just like fidgeting i fidget all the time yeah i'm fidgeting too maybe it's because i'm so excited to talk about this next game which i actually am my favorite game of the week the cowboys at the niners uh the niners are four point favorites can i guess your favorite your play on this one sure are you buying the niners in low spot sure i am not cowboys oh yeah talk to me about who is playing for the 49ers this week they They're going to be missing Debo. They're going to be missing Ayuk.

They're going to be missing McCaffrey. Kittle is banged up. And Jennings is not playing. And Jennings. So their leading receiver is going to be Ricky Pearsall, who played last week despite no conditioning and didn't make an impact. And then I think their next guy is named Ronnie Bell.

And we're going to see Jacob Cowan from Arizona. Yeah. USC, Arizona. Um, also plus four. Yeah. So also I do believe, I think Parsons might be playing in this game. It's like, it's a game time. Yeah.

Yeah. Um, so there, this defense is not totally healthy healthy but coming off of a buy for dallas uh mike mccarthy splits let me just try to find them quickly and pull them up they he's very good off the buy um he is the most profitable coach on extended rest since 2003 uh 62 against the spread this is like this is the real bro Purdy test. It's like, here you go, bud. You have no receivers, no running backs, and you're laying four to a team that everyone thought was going to make the playoffs this year or at least be good.

I think this is just a smash for Dallas. What is it about San Francisco that everyone just believes in them week after week despite who's not even on the field? It's a great point. It's a great point. It's a great point it's a great point it's a good point um we're getting the worst in number though which does suck but that's fine but we're still getting over three and a half like that's still like yeah we're getting four yeah yeah and this i mean for to be fair it's four in the super contest so it's kind of hung there for it's it's it's been around

there for a while all right dallas was the only one i was really adamant about okay we'll put dallas we don't have a lot so we'll put dallas in there um all right the next one would be the steelers six and a half point favorites to the giants no monday night no just just absolutely just nothing nothing nothing. Giants? Come on. Talk to me about it a little bit. How are they going to score at all in this game? They got sacked eight times

last weekend. This is just such a buy low spot and sell high on the Steelers. The Steelers never cover games like this where they're a big national favorite of this many points. Tomlin sucks in this exact role. It's like we just had a big win where everyone counted us out. We made a statement.

Now we have this bad team with no juice coming over here. They just got wrecked by their old running back. Daniel Jones is a corpse. Oh, wait, he's way better on the road. Oh, wait, Steelers suck as a favorite. I'm not saying we should but this that the play here is the giants oh it's definitely not pittsburgh let me look at something real quick this i gotta see if raybon's on the giants or not

that no no raybon on the giants uh that might that might have moved my opinion of the giants there um oh yikes um yeah i i know i mean the giants defense has not been that bad and the giants are one of these teams that's frustrating because they're like just they're better they're like the best really bad team you know like they're not good but they but they're like sometimes they hang around. I mean, what's the score of this game? What's the score of this game, you think? I think it's like a 20 to 14.

Yeah, something like that. The Giants will score 14 points. Oh, boy. The other thing. We'll do the maybes, I guess. The thing with the Giants, like if you are going to make the argument that they're not as bad as they seem their losses this year are vikings blow out close to the commanders yeah close to dallas and then they beat seattle and they you know they got worked by the eagles but they they kept it sort of close against the bangles in a week where like you know that the bangles that

was just a weird game i don't know it's's not great, but if we needed a fifth, I would say that they should be in contention, but I'm not sure that we do. Well, these are the four I think we have so far, okay? Yep. Cleveland puts eight and a half is in. Locked. Miami minus four and a half is in, right?

Yep. Houston minus five? Four and a half. Four and a half. Sorry, four and a half. Dallas and a half. Sorry, four and a half. Dallas minus, excuse me, plus four. Those are the four I think we have in, right? Yeah, I'm good with all those.

Okay. So we can do Washington instead of the Giants. I'm fine with that. Well, the other options we have, we put Cincinnati minus two and a half. Yep, that's right. Buffalo minus three. Washington plus three and a half.

Chiefs minus nine and a half chiefs minus nine and a half okay no chiefs okay no juice okay no juice that'd be hilarious and then we have i would say no road favorite buffalo yeah i don't think we can do that the panels is not bad though under a field goal because of eagles team that kind of like what's a bangles defense just implodes in this game i'm good with i'm i'm cincinnati like i think this is just a philly fade um more than a cincinnati play like i think it's probably going to be a like weird game with like wyatt offense and then offensive explosions and it's probably going to come down to the fourth quarter. I don't hate it.

I mean, I'd certainly rather back. All the money's on Philly too. People, I swear I feel like Philly is just the most overrated team in the market. They were the preseason favorite. Everyone just like everyone loves them. They're a fantasy team.

What's the injury situation there? Is Miami playing? T. Higgins just got on. It was not hard to practice today, but they changed his injury status. I have to watch it all week, though. Let's do Washington. All right, Washington.

They're not going to get get worse and maybe Daniels does play we have a great number yeah I have dude I have a feeling Daniels is gonna play so with the ribs is pain management yeah this all right so Cleveland plus eight and a half

minus four and a half plus four Houston minus four and a half Dallas plus four Houston minus four and a half Washington plus three pretty good list man yeah can I go over the wagers I texted you earlier today there was no different show it was a different show for that um

what are we like 10 days away from that happening I'm gonna be really rich if it ends up happening like we think it's gonna happen so yeah we'll see how it goes. Matt and I want to start a political podcast. A political betting podcast. A political betting podcast. You can only do it overseas.

The one thing I found so interesting about political gambling, just to do a gambling podcast, is how many people sort of don't understand what the gambling market means. Like Dave Mason, who runs BetOnline, he's very transparent on the internet. He says, guys, I set the lines based on what I'm getting for wagers. It doesn't reflect who is going to win or not. It's a matter of, in this political market, it's a little bit different in the NFL market. There's power rankings, right?

Like there's like ways the lines are set, but this is just, he's taking money on certain sides. He has to adjust his odds based on the money he's taking. It's me and Matt making the wagers. It's not like there's insight. It's not like Donald Trump's campaign is making, he might be making the wagers or Kamala's campaign is making wagers like so i just find it so interesting how people

have latched on to the the the bet i'm not even talking about polymark just like the betting market the odds on the offshores and sort of made inferences on the election based on those correct and yes it seems like it seems like a wasteful exercise like yeah i said go i went during the election you can go away journal too i'm not discouraging you to do that i just don't think that we can make inferences on who's winning and losing in either direction remember hillary clinton was a huge favorite in 2016 how'd that work out right like it does it's not it's just it's where it's who's getting the money, right? It's how the sports books are trying to make their money on this election. And they're going to, they're

going to need, I think Harris in the end, which is you want to be in the sports book side, by the way. But it, Matt, it, it seems interesting how we fundamentally don't seem to understand what the markets mean in relation to the election. Right. Their goal is not to tell you what's going to happen. Their goal is to get an equal amount of money on both sides. In this specific instance, I think in sports, they are telling you who's going to win and lose at least what they think is going to happen.

I think in this instance, this is not predictive. It's a guess. And it says like, here's what we think makes sense, could happen. But as we know, gambling lines are not predictive. They are a snapshot in time, just like polls are. And I think that the other point of this is people are betting on the outcome they want,

mostly. There are some people who are probably just dispassionately betting this. But I think for the most most part it's someone who's affirming what they're reading in their you know x feed yeah and their x feed might have some stuff in it that maybe isn't real on both sides by the way but who is a more likely better at an offshore like probably somebody who's like a crypto person who's probably a bad sports better frankly not saying i'm not one of those and also like probably a guy who's young and maybe doesn't like understand how any of this works and probably like not someone talking about it to anyone those people are often trump people so they're probably betting up the Trump side as confirmation bias quite a bit, giving an

opportunity to take the other side. And what everyone is saying is a close race, whether you want that or not. I do think there is a nice betting opportunity to zag against what seems like a big favorite in the markets. Yeah. Well, that's a good way to put it, buddy, because I just thought I follow this. I know you do, too. We don't talk very much.

That's our political corner, based at all about about actually who we think is going to win or not but um yeah we didn't give a prediction in there i put a lot of money in this election so we'll see if it works out i just know that we talked about this before 2020 we made so much money in election night it was so irresponsible it's going to happen again by the way it's going to be the numbers are going to be so if you like to wager on this type of thing guys i i don't know should we recommend getting an offshore account i don't know how i don't know if we're allowed to but like that the election night's going to be wild because they're going to call a couple states early on and you have to realize some states don't count ballots till a certain time of day on election night and it just

like last election they're going to have someone's going to be winning and then it's going to change most likely to get more even and that's when you pounce i don't know we got something going here buddy i've it's we let most of our texts are about this and not about football until sunday which by the way it's the same conversation, just different thing. It's just both of us panicking about how dumb we are. Oh, yeah. All the Browns, we're idiots.

That's coming at 10.03 a.m. Pacific on Sunday. Oh, absolutely. Why don't we bet on Mariota? Browns, Dolphins, Cowboys, Texans, Commanders. There we go.

All right. That's a nice list. I'm glad we got that political thing off my chest. Yeah, me too. We need to do that. Me too. We need to do that. All right, guys.

We'll talk to you next Friday. Have a good weekend. Enjoy your weekend. Best of luck, everyone. Take care.