Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Week 8 Reactions and NFL Week 9 Best Bets

Episode Date: November 1, 2024

Geoff is back with another episode of Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You. On today's show, Geoff and Matt recap week 8 of the NFL. Plus, a look ahead into week 9 of the NFL with Geoff's Best Bets.Be sure to follow the pod to get notified when a new episode drops each week, and follow @GeoffSchwartz on Twitter/X for more NFL and CFB comments. Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You will be live streamed on Twitter/X and YouTube every Friday all season long.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It is Friday, November 1st. I am Jeff Schwartz. That is Matt Ford. This is Jeff Schwartz of Smarter Than You. We are here for our weekly podcast episode. We go over all National Football League games. We give you, hopefully, five winners for the week, Matt, against the spread. We only do sides here.

We might throw a total or a prop your way that we like in a given week. Matt, we have just sort of, we're 18-21-1. But man, the Texans last weekend fumbling, going into the end zone to cover that game. It seems like every week there is one game that holds us back from a winning week. And I think we're close to stringing together some winning weeks, buddy.

We've got to be. We're due. We've done the right stuff. It feels like it's an injury or a quarterback change or oh this one just you know the colts get a crazy fumble recovery whatever happened last week or we live life through the windshield not the rear view on this show right so we're we're here to pick up the pieces and plow forward. We're two and a half games under.500, not too bad, especially considering we had a stink bomb 0-5 somewhere in there. I guess, do you want to talk quickly about last night

and the possibly resurgent Jets before we get into today? Sure. My take on last night, and for those who missed it, the Jets beat the Texans 21-13, I believe, right? And it could have been 28, right? They dropped a ball heading into the end zone. So poor, poor decision there. I looked at last night, Matt, more as an indictment on the Texans

than as a positive for the Jets. The Texans' offensive line has legit problems. And they have problems at guard, which we knew, but in the Shanahan offense, it really doesn't... It's not a great offense for adjusting protections on third down. It's not built into the offense

as well as, let's say, Andy Reid's offenses or other offenses around the NFL. And we see that a lot with Houston, where they're just not on the same page protection-wise. And again, it's an issue with some of the just individual players. But this has been a problem. It was a problem in Green Bay, a problem last weekend, a problem last night. And so I look at this more as an indictment on the Texans, who are now 6-3 and sort of needed,

not needed to win last night, but they really haven't played well in a month. I mean, they haven't played at all we thought they'd be, you know, at all heading into the season. So I don't think the Jets are back now. Good win for them. But I look at this indictment on the Texans more than anything else. Yeah, Texans, they've had such a curious season. They had that win over the Bills that made everyone sort of say, oh man, maybe they're one of the best teams.

But then the rest of their schedule, some pretty soft wins. Obviously, their division you know they've they've beat the colts twice now they beat the bears in week two and caleb was sort of figuring it out they beat the jaguars they beat the patriots and then you know they lost to green bay like they got smoked by minnesota they're kind of this team that i think we all sort of penciled in as a top five maybe super bowl contender and obviously that you know the injuries to the wide receivers that i think have made a huge huge impact cj stroud he hasn't had a penciled in as a top five maybe super bowl contender and obviously that you know the injuries to the wide receivers that i think have made a huge huge impact cj stroud he hasn't had a 300

yard game no uh and well just a month and that went over buffalo where he's still awesome dude he threw for like what one 150 ish last night he threw for 96 two weeks ago it's not been good yeah it's not and uh we you know a lot of people talk about him as like a top five you know guy in the league and you know he's i think he's still got a little room to go i mean on the jet side huge season motivating victory for them if they had lost that game they i mean they were just done like i i think they would have had to start realistically looking at stripping the team for parts you know trade deadline which happens to be an election day what twitter day that's going to be um oh buddy i i did i trigger you no i just i'm not looking forward

to tuesday i put it like that it's gonna be a late night on the east coast here buddy yeah so tuesday isn't even gonna be the end of it. But I think that anyway, like good for them. I'm not like, I agree. I'm not like, wow, the Jets, like great fun game for Garrett Wilson, you know, good for them, but they still have a long way to go before they can even think about a seven seat or anything like that, but good for them. I agree.

I agree. All right, buddy. Fair warning. I only like two games this week. Like, really like two games. We're going to have to, and I hope you like them too. So we're going to have to fight our way to find five here, which sometimes happens to be a good week. So let's start off with the first game of the week.

Matt, what do we got for Sunday morning? Sunday morning. We have, let's start with the Broncos and the Ravens. The Ravens laying nine and a half to bo nicks and co uh kind of an interesting one isn't it like seven now it's back up to nine and a half it dipped this morning what yeah it was seven like two like an hour ago i was doing my visa show with stormy i mean i'm looking at the i'm looking at our action network page that i always look at um which does which does surprise me because i did also see it hit seven and a half, I think.

I saw an eight a little bit earlier. So that must have mean that a big, sharp group hit the Broncos and then the market corrected. I would imagine that's what happens. Oh, look, I have nothing on this game. I just say this. The Ravens passed. You were so outraged by the line. I was doing radio an hour ago. We'd cover this game. It'll just say this. The Ravens' pass defense... You were so outraged by the line.

I was doing radio an hour ago. We covered this game. It was like 7. The line was at 7. This is backdoor cover for me for the Broncos if you take the Broncos in this game, where the Ravens' pass defense has been really bad the last couple weeks. Matt's been an accused heel for them. And look,

that being said, Kyle Hamilton catches the pass. Really, it's not a pass, but it's a safety. He catches the ball from Jameis Winston. The Ravens win that game. We're not talking about this at all, right? So, but the Ravens sort of have those moments, right, Matt, where they're not able to close out games. So I would, I'd lean Broncos here,

but not a play I'm willing to take for a contest. Yeah, that's exactly where I am. And it's because I think, I think you're right. I think the market is basically saying they are still pricing the Ravens really high and saying like, yeah, if they, if Rashad Bateman had caught that bomb from Lamar, if Kyle Hamilton had caught that pick, if you know, X, Y, and Z, it happens, you know, if Isaiah likely his toe had gone in, like all those things are still sort of saying like, yeah, they're still the best, you know know maybe the second best team in the league um but I don't know Denver is just like this weird scrappy team that just hangs around I think Derek Henry's gonna

go crazy in this game because the Denver pasty is so solid that I think they're just gonna recommit to the run especially Henry had kind of a down game last week having said that can't take it uh there's gonna be a bunch of those this week, probably including this one. The Bengals laying seven to the Raiders. I feel like the Bengals are favored by seven every week. The Bengals suck, but they're favored against everyone every week, and I feel like we've never been against them.

You can't hear it. They've only scored two touchdowns per game in the last three games. Giants two touchdowns per game in the last offensive touchdowns in the last three games. Giants, Browns, and then the Eagles. That game was 10-10, and the Bengals got blown out in the second half. Yeah, there's nothing to play here.

I can't see us. We're not taking points of the Raiders in the spot, I'll tell you that. No, that's just going to be a terrible game, and Cincy will win, and everyone will be like, Cincy and the Jets they're back they've lost three teams it's like it's like

Giants Panthers Browns without without without James Winston yeah right exactly I mean we're through we're through these two games and we're going to get through a third here without even an opinion, which is the Titans laying three and a half to the Patriots.

Yeah, yeah. For the effort of time and you guys' ears, and we'll skip this one, Matt. What's there to say about this one? I mean, take the under? I don't know. I have no idea what to do in that one. Pass. Don't even take the under because then you have to think about it correct uh we'll save you the effort

there jeff this isn't getting any better next i've got saints panthers the panthers are plus seven the saints probably getting derrick car back yeah uh if there's a sign i think it's the saints horrible man i think the saints actually are a maybe for us. Dear God. We've bet against the Panthers. I'm assuming we bet on the Panthers way too much this season. The Panthers legitimately do really bad. Yeah.

Like, and if Carr comes back, the Saints will be markedly better immediately. There's also, there's no, like, backdoor cover for the Panthers either in this situation. No one's going to beat this game I think it's a maybe I think we have other games but I put it down as a maybe New Orleans minus 7 is a maybe the Panthers are really really bad guys they're nothing going for them right now

and they're hurt and they trade away another wide receiver their defense is atrocious I think the Saints is the side on this one they're hurt and they trade away another wide receiver. Their defense is atrocious. I think the Saints is the side on this one. Yeah. I mean, the Saints,

look, they played already. The Saints won 47 to 10. And then ever since, you know, that was when our, our pal Bill Simmons compared them to the 99 Rams after two weeks. And yesterday in the office, producer Hank, who, you know,

Dave O'Tayes will remember on this show, was saying, like, I'm so surprised that the Saints suck now. And I was like, why? If you listen to anyone who knows anything about football, you realize they haven't won a game since week two. Like, they suck. So this does feel like the game where they kind of get it back on track, I guess.

And then they have the falcons the week after their big rivalry so i it's this is a bad week if we're even talking about this one but i do think we have to consider it oh man i don't know man that's gonna be that's gonna be a tough one it's a maybe it's not like there's any home field advantage there um okay falcons cowboys this is an this is an interesting game even if we don't like it. The Falcons are laying three. Dallas is getting all the bets and the money. Interesting.

Interesting line. This is bounced around this number all week. I don't know if I've seen a three yet. I see some three and a half, by the way. There was earlier today. It's been three and a half. All right, Matt. So I like B.J. Robinson, by the way,

over 73 and a half rushing yards in this game. Dallas' run defense is freaking atrocious, buddy. It is bad. And I don't love the Falcons at all for anything, Matt, but it has to be Falcons or Buster. The Cowboys are dead, man. They're dead right now. There's nothing going on with this team, nothing positive.

Their two defensive stars went on a podcast and talked about top 10 quarterbacks. They didn't even include their own quarterback in the top 10, which is just like a shocking, just like, just throw him in there. Cause it's your teammate, you know, Matt,

I think there's a lot of dysfunction Dallas right now to maybe Falcons or bust, but I'm not sure I can stomach the Falcons, but it's up to you. I'm on Dallas, dude. I think, I know I was big on them last week and that led us astray.

It almost, they almost got back and covered. I mean, I think, I think Atlanta is a little bit of a paper tiger here. I mean, I think Atlanta is a little bit of a paper tiger here. I mean, if you look back at who they've beaten, all of their wins,

I believe, except Philly, have been in the NFC South. They beat the Bucs twice, once in that crazy overtime game, and then last week, it was a much closer game than I realized looking at the final score, and it was basically because the Bucs have, you know, they're playing the practice squad on offense, essentially. But, you know, they got blown out at home by the Seahawks.

They, I don't know, they get a lot of credit for kind of hanging in there with the Chiefs all game. Like, cool. I just, I think that Dallas, this is just one of those times it's like everyone's out on Dallas, right? Like, who believes in them after obviously like a Parsons comments. He's right about Jane Daniels, by the way, top five for sure. Definitely love that. But I do think that I just think that everyone's out on Dallas. These two teams are even if not Dallas being a little bit ahead.

I mean, they get thrown bland back. That's that's nice Parsons. There was some hope that maybe he would play this week. It doesn't look like he's going to. But I think these teams are kind of close. And I also think that San Francisco, we just watched Dallas get their ass kicked by San Francisco for three quarters and then come all the way back almost. San Francisco's good. Like, I misread that last week.

Like, Debo ended up playing. They obviously, like, figured something out in the passing game. Dallas' secondary was a mess. I just don't think that that was that bad of a loss. I think these teams are kind of even and I don't mind taking the plus three. Back to the Cowboys, huh? I don't like it, but

find me better options this week. Oh, well, we got some. I put in the maybes. My impassioned plea for the team I hate the most uh all right dolphins bills bills laying six i don't know why this number is so low but it feels a little bit trappy to me are you on buffalo here or do you feel like i think it'd be buffalo or pass um i mean i guess the idea is the dolphins iins, I don't know,

their offense would give the Bills defense problems, I think, Matt, is the point here with Hale and with the Bills. Maybe, you know, injury-wise, we're talking about their defense all season. But, again, I go back to the idea of sort of the Bills typically dominate bad teams at home. And the Dolphins are not very good and buffalo minus six would certainly be the player i'm not you can't i don't think you're back miami in this spot no i don't think we've seen anything out of miami that makes me believe in them

uh the money has come in on miami this but a little bit and there actually is a five and a half right now uh it's where am i seeing that draft kings i mean it's gonna be fandal fandal i would be pretty interested in the bills plus minus five and a half yeah i think they figured i think cooper has unlocked something on that offense because it's like young coleman kind of do his thing almost look good man and cooks cooks playing well like the davis's look good like their our offense is kind of humming and you know this miami team everyone's like well we can buy low they looked kind of good like did they they actually didn't look that great i don't know so i'm i'm kind of cool

they also losing that game by the way to um to arizona like could sort of kill their vibe with the doll like the dolphins had basically one chance to get back in this thing and that was last weekend they lost the game now they're on the road against a buffalo team that's super hot um i i think this could be a problem for miami yeah i don't i think this is i mean look we're getting a good number here too so i'm i'm cool with this one. Okay. Maybe I like that. We get a five and a half and potentially in there. Yeah.

Um, like, well, I'll curb my enthusiasm with that, with that very strong sounding, maybe there. Um, how about the chargers Browns?

You interested in this one? The Browns are home dogs. Oh, buddy. Sign me up for some more. Jameis Winston. Okay. Okay. No, no, I'm with it. No, I I'm me up for some more Jameis Winston. Okay. No?

No, I'm with it. No, I'm on the same side. I'm just not ready to enjoy this game at all. It's going to be boring. Oh, it's going to be terrible. I just don't really. Here's my grand point of this. If sportsbooks adjust a point spread by six or seven points

when a backup quarterback comes in. So let's say Mahomes is out. Now, Mahomes is a bad example. Let's say Jordan Love is out this week, which I think he's going to play. That number would move six points to Malik Willis, right? So Packers would be favored by, let's say, an even spread, and the Lions would be favored by six,

and Malik Wells was announced playing, right? Like this, so let me hear. What if the inverse is true here, where Jameis Winston makes the Browns six points better because he is that much better of a quarterback than Deshaun Watson? Is that taking any consideration in this game, Matt? Because why are the Chargers favored on the road in Cleveland if you assume Cleveland has a competent quarterback now?

Cleveland has real talent, Matt. They have really good football players, and they looked like a new team last weekend. So give me Browns. Browns plus one-half was my best bet on the Bear Bets podcast. I'm riding the Browns again this weekend, buddy. I like it. I think everything

you said, I agree with. I think the Chargers have been one of those teams that people have just kind of like not really paid a ton of attention to. And then they always are. This is yeah. But like, this is again, it's like, oh, like, look, lad, Mikagi, it's such a good game. Like Justin Herbert's so good. It's like, okay, okay like let's see them go into you know the midwest in november and beat a team with a resurgent offense and a tough ass defense on the road let's see it i'm i'm ready to be proven wrong but like let's see justin herbert win that game once i'm i'm with you i agree i agree yeah uh i don't know why i have such a vendetta against that guy he's a great

quarterback uh you hate oregon that's why you're getting ready for the oregon maryland game next weekend yeah i'm locked in man i am so locked did you did you brag to gay about your big win against usc i didn't do enough honestly i should have done a bit more because gabe really cares you don't which makes it even the even more funny yeah and like maryland cares way less than usc about football hey college basketball starts on uh on monday which means i gotta start fading college basketball plays from the person i fade college basketball plays from and i cannot wait because said person was like 44 last season man you're gonna be rolling in dough after your your senate bets and your uh fades of a particular influencer tuesday is either going

to go really well uh for my bankroll or not so we'll see yeah and for other reasons as well well yeah of course yes all right uh my team against your former team commanders giants three and a half road favorites commanders can't bet on the giants can you no you can't you can't do it can't do it no signs of life no i mean the giants actually are i don't know i think the giants are a better team than people realize and i I think Washington, after that crazy win, could be a little bit flat in this one, in that dead stadium. But I don't know. I don't think I can back the Giants. The thing about the Giants, too, they don't cover at home, man.

No. Are we talking about something in the Commanders? No, right? I don't think so. It's just kind of a weird spot after that crazy win and daniel's like you know he's still a little bit injured okay over under let's say 47 videos you watched over the hail marion reaction over way over dude i gotta say like i've in my career as a Washington fan, I've never once legitimately felt that leaving someone 25 seconds as one of our quarterbacks was, like, too much time.

Like, the Bears scored, they get the two-point, and I'm like, all right, we have 25 seconds. Like, that's enough time for Daniels. Like, he had one timeout. Like, that's enough time. And it was, but I've never felt that way. Like, you watch Chiefs every week. It's like, oh, there's 13 seconds left on the clock. Like, that's enough time and it was but i've never felt that way like you feel like you watch chiefs every week it's like oh there's there's 13 seconds left on the clock like that's enough time we got this but with daniels i was like he'll probably figure it out like he'll put

it in a good position but uh the bears the tyreek stevenson that guy who was taunting the fans like that is just like an all-time it's just an all-time blunder and it'll live with him forever the rest of his career it will be the only thing he's remembered for. Unfortunately for him. I think, tell me that I'm crazy here. I feel like that's something that you got to maybe consider firing your coach for.

Like if you have a kind of culture where that could happen, like imagine that happening on a Kansas city team. Imagine that happening on a Belichick. Imagine that happening on Dan Quinn sideline. It would never happen. It's crazy to me. You're exactly right. So, well, I don't know.

No, you're exactly right. If Ibraflux is far, which I think it's going to happen, it's going to be because of that. Absolutely. And the play before that, too. They allowed a free 15 yards for Washington to get. Yeah. Was that the best commander's play

since RG3's touchdown run? When you were there on the Vikings. Yeah, on the Vikings. I think probably better than that. Yeah, but that was like the last play you felt hope as a fan. Yep. Yeah.

That was it. Dan Quinn, coach of the year, is going to win it, in my opinion. Yeah. I think he's got to be the winner if it's today. Oh, absolutely, by far. And the defense is getting better, too. The Commanders, I think we joked about if they're serious,

they're not winning a Super Bowl this season. But they're legitimately good. They're a good football team. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, look, to me, it's funny. It's like in the beginning of the season, everyone's like, Dallas' defense is going to take a step back. Washington's is going to suck. It's like they can't be both. Like, Dan Quinn's done an amazing job. Washington did get rid of some of the season, everyone's like, Dallas' defense is going to take a step back. Washington's is going to suck.

It's like they can't be both. Washington did get rid of some of their guys, and then some guys got hurt too. I get why people thought that about Washington. Yeah, cut their first-round pick from two years ago. Just unbelievable what round it was. Oh, the list of players they've cut in the last five seasons that they draft in the first, second round is crazy.

Yeah. Man, I've really enjoyed this commander's talk we can do it we can do it more often i do think they win this game but i think it'll be tight like these these two teams always play each other yeah too danny dimes loves playing them uh the team washington beat last week the bears they're oh interesting now they're the cardinals are back to being slight favorites this is is basically a coin flip. It's minus one for the cards, maybe a one and a half. I wouldn't leave Arizona here, but the problem

with Arizona, Matt, is I don't know what they are. They won the last three games they've won by one point, two points, one point. I think I have that correct. I need a 10-point quarterback against the Niners or a second-half comeback. I need a nine-point second-half comeback against Miami. That included a safety.

The Dolphins said they'd be the chargers by two and chargers had five field goals in that game. The bears worry me though. Like, I don't think they're a good team. They're kind of a happenstance of their schedule so far. I would probably stay away from this one. Yeah,

me too. They're kind of the same team to me in a weird way where it's like, they have all this talent and it's feels like everything should be fine. And then either one of them could run away with this but I don't really trust either of them Bears either are going to like rally hard after that loss or they're going to fall apart

yeah it's just a stay away I don't have a feel there okay Philly Jacksonville Philly's like seven and a half Jacksonville is just like one of the saddest teams in this whole league. If this was seven, I think I'd be in on Philly, honestly. But this number feels just a little bit out of reach for me. Yeah, there's no sevens at all.

You're right. Seven and a half, probably skip seven. You play the Eagles. Six and a half, you certainly play the Eagles. I think we just skip seven. You play the Eagles. Six and a half, you certainly play the Eagles. I think we just skip it. You're right. But Jacksonville, geez, they're so bad. Seven and a half is so much.

I mean, when the Eagles win, they do tend to blow teams out. I mean, they didn't earlier in the season. We can choose like the Eagles seven and a half or the Chiefs minus nine. So we could choose one of those favorites later in the show. We're not taking the Chiefs minus 9. I know. I just don't want to see your reaction to that.

No chance. Oh, my God. 7.5 is just so irresponsible. I'll just put it down as a maybe. Well, we already have Buffalo as a big favorite. I think we both like. So maybe we'll stick away from two of those teams. All right. Let's move to the next one then because i think this is the packers game and

um i can't do that i can't run the table fast enough to make this wager okay they're getting plus three against the lions uh we assume jordan love will play go ahead i mean okay look first of all we talk about this a lot. Divisional home dog with a good football team is a wager that I want to always make, Matt, in this game. So a couple things to note here. Yeah, the Lions have played great recently, but they've also not played anyone that can sort of punch at their own weight. You know, Matt and the Packers can.

The Packers are ninth, excuse me, eighth in DVOA. Like a legitimate good football team. They're fifth on offense and 12th on defense. Like they're really good, Matt. Yeah, the Lions might be one, but this is their first road game of the season outside. Their first outdoor game in November. And guess what, guys?

Not going to be great weather in Green Bay this weekend because it's November in Green Bay, Wisconsin. So this is my favorite wager, second favorite of the weekend. Saturday, it's 58 on Saturday, which is actually pretty nice. There was talk earlier in the week about some rain. It moved to Sunday. The rain moved to Sunday. Oh, excuse me.

They're playing Sunday. My bad. I'm thinking about college football. Sunday, 53 degrees, 100% chance of rain. Like the Packers have to play here, Matt. 100%. I'm thinking about college football Sunday, 53 degrees, a hundred percent chance of rain. Yeah. Like the Packers is the play here, Matt. A hundred percent. Matt Lafleur covers 69% as an underdog.

And he's 20 and 15 straight up as an underdog in his coaching career. One of the best in each category. It's 20 and 15 straight up as an underdog. Think about that. They're not favored and they win most of the time uh yeah i agree i think the only concern i have i guess is obviously well apart from whether jordan love plays and if he's healthy or not if he does play is you know the way to sort of the green bay has been insane at forcing these turnovers being so aggressive very true yes

that the lions could just do the thing that we know they're going to do when it gets closer to the end of the season of just handing the ball off a thousand times. They could do that. That's the way they win this game. I don't know if Ben Johnson has the patience for that. And also, it sucks betting against the Lions. They can just go crazy.

But I do feel like the Packers are the play here. Plus three with this coaching staff. I think it's a smart play, so I'm in on it. I'm in. Let's do it. All right, we've got one. We've got a few. I think we actually have three right now. Yeah, Buffalo, Browns, and Packers, and a couple maybes.

Okay, well, maybe there's something here. The other 425 game, that was the first one. This one is the Rams at the seahawks oh man did this one move now it's basically a pick i see both you can get a plus one basically on either side we're gonna talk about this one matt this is so interesting to me yeah this is one of those games so the last two thursday nights the rams i think were were getting three points against the vikings everyone thought that was really a low number and the the Jets were favored against the Texans. And we were like, what's up with that?

This is one of those games, Matt, where I don't know why the Seahawks are an underdog. I don't know why the Rams are favored by a point. It might just be a point. I get it. But is Vegas telling us something here, Matt? Are we missing something here? Because I would love to take Seattle,

but I feel like the Sharps are telling us the Rams are better because Seattle has a real home field advantage. So most places don't and, and they're still a favorite in this game. I think Seattle's better, Matt. I would really, I would take Seattle. Huh? I think the Rams are, are way better.

Really? As just, I think with Nakua and cut back. Well I think with Nakua and Kup back. Well, Puka Nakua did not practice today. McVay said I would bet on him playing or something like that. Okay. So I think they're just being precautionary. It was something else. It sounds like he just kind of got banged up.

It sounds like he took a weird fall or something. We've talked a bit about how in the past some of these teams in the NFC West, there's like a circle. Ownage, yeah. Sean McVay, he's won 10 of 15 against Seattle. He's done well there for whatever reason. I do think that matters, even though obviously new coaching staff, all that stuff. This was the Rams favored by, I think, two, two and a half on Wednesday. I think the Super Contest line is somewhere around there.

Obviously, people have agreed with you and the line has gotten pushed towards Seattle. That, to me, feels really fishy. I don't know which side I want to be on anymore. So I think this is just a stay away. But look, I've been one of these guys that's just banging the drum that I just don't buy Seattle. I just don't. The problem is the Rams defense is not going to be the one that exposes Seattle quite as much. But it's just kind of strange. Somebody else, I forget who it was, was saying like, so wait, the Rams line basically all week was sitting at where the bills line was so are the rams the bills

like i don't know i don't think so i generally agree so i think we just stay away then probably yeah it seems weird i don't know i i'm like blinded by my admiration for mcveigh so i'm out okay um i have a i do have an opinion on this one jeff the sunday night game the vikings are five and a half to the colts there is only one side here for me what's yours well i i don't know anything on this side there is a five by the way draft kings okay so you're seeing where i'm going and that's towards minnesota good okay i was hoping you'd say minnesota Yeah. So, okay. Let's just like, let's just like take a second and think about what's going on in the NFL.

10 days ago, certainly the last time, you know, two shows ago for us, the Vikings were undefeated. They were this team where we were talking about Brian Flores is probably the most impactful coordinator on either side of the ball all year. At the same time, there was this like Anthony Richardson conversation. It's like, okay, he's out for the, he's done. Now we're going to put in Joe Flacco and everyone's like Joe Flacco. He's good.

Like, no, Joe Flacco isn't good. Joe Flacco is competent with an offense. That's kind of fun and very underrated and like very i don't know fun to watch but this defense that minnesota is at an all-time low this season in terms of how they're valued this was the team that vegas was on all season they had these losses and now everyone's like ah they've they turned into a pumpkin whatever their defense is going to feast on a 38 year old or 40 year old quarterback who can't move like they're going to absolutely go crazy rushing this guy i i don't know i think the vikings with the extended rest better coach better defense better quarterback better everything some injuries on the colts

offensive line which is a big problem i just think this is a slam dunk for the Vikings here. Think about this, Matt. They announced Flacco the starter and the line barely budged. Like he's not done much better to the team than Anthony Richardson is, right? No, it's Joe Flacco. Like he's fine. I agree. I agree. Vikings off a little bit of a rest, right?

Licking their wounds a little bit, a couple losses in a row. But who'd they lose to? The Rams on Thursday night football, kind of a tough spot in the Lions. Yeah. The Colts, I just think the Colts are not good. their wounds a little bit couple losses in a row but who they lose to the rams on thursday night football kind of a tough spot in the lions yeah the colts i just think the colts are not good i'm with you i'm 100% agree with you in this game the vikings lions game was that an overtime game or was it just a last possession game it's like we we've talked on the show about how playing the lions is so hard the following week you've you know that it's it's often a good fade which maybe we should be taking new england actually if they're playing the lions is so hard the following week. You've, you know, it's, it's often a good fade, which maybe we should be taking to England actually,

if they're playing the Titans. But yeah, it was a tough spot. And then they played this team where Puka Nakua got announced. He was playing like 10 seconds before the game. It was a tough spot. So I'm buying Minnesota. I think,

I think they're a slam dunk. Okay. So we've got one more game. We have four, by the way, we didn't think we'd have four we have four games yeah we have one more game that i i don't think we're playing but uh let's talk it through anyways chiefs laying nine to the bucks even nine and a half now on monday night football

or bucks man they were such a fun team i'm sad to see their season kind of turn out like this so again the issue obviously is that no wide receivers i like bucks under 17 half points in this game and also rashad white under his rushing total the chiefs have done a great job this season holding um started running backs under their yardage total map but you can't put the chiefs here so uh just there's just no value in doing that whatsoever yeah i agree um all right let's circle back we've got we've got four why don't we lay out the four that we feel like we're putting okay so the four we're putting in uh cleveland plus one and a half green bay plus three buffalo minus five and a half minnesota minus five oh we got a minus five

on that let's go nice yeah draft kings yeah perfect um the other the other um so the other The other three we had, mostly, were New Orleans, who they announced Carr was in, by the way, Dallas, and Philly. I think Philly we have to take out. Okay. Seven and a half, right? You make me go back to Dallas, Matt? Is that going to make me do that?

I'm like, I mean, man, how bad do we think the Panthers are? Are they basically seven points worse at home than maybe the fifth worst team in the league? Who are you talking about?

The Saints. Like, if we should lay seven with the Saints on the road. you can't you can't lay seven we gotta take dallas let's just take dallas all right dallas we got there's a three and a half out here really yeah so it's one more thing shows yep it just moved i just saw it three and a half done so i mean we'll always take well i would take three and a half here three and a half like completely changes my Three and a half, like, completely changes my opinion, actually. I think we should definitely take that.

We got some good numbers. We don't usually get lucky this time of the week. It's a little bit of juice on the three and a half, but, I mean, so be it. It's life sometimes. All right. All right. So, Cleveland plus one and a half. Green Bay plus three. Buffalo minus five. Minnesota minus five. Dallas plus three and a half, Green Bay plus three,

Buffalo minus five, Minnesota minus five, Dallas plus three and a half. Matthew, any more thoughts about the political gambling market today? Yeah, I'll just lay out exactly what we talked about before. So if you are a offshore bettor, which we can't condone or pretend we have no awareness of somewhere in the middle um the odds by state are favoring harris in pennsylvania and michigan and wisconsin if you win those states and hold the other places that she is widely expected to hell hold that puts her at 270 and yet she is a plus what 150 favorite right

now in terms of the election yeah but 150 yeah so that just shows you how square this market is and if you are so inclined you can enjoy it she's she's a slight a slight dog in pa but that number keeps sort of coming down a little bit yeah yeah so well where where do you stand today oh i stand the same way i i i feel overwhelmed looking at some of this like data basically on what's happened in early voting but yeah the thing that's interesting about the early voting though it's not they don't actually tabulate votes right it's just who returns what based on your political affiliation right so they just say like in this, X amount of votes have come back for a Democrat, X amount of votes have come back for a Republican, X amount of votes have come back for an independent. And they're saying that if you vote along party lines, this is what the vote would be.

But there's no saying whether any side is defected at all, right, or where the independents break. Is that how you have it? No one's released actual votes. It's just the party affiliation so far. Correct. Yeah. You can't release actual vote totals. I think, look, anyone who's listening to this far into the podcast is probably not one of these people who's totally in the dark about what's happening in politics. But I do think that we've had these two really weird elections in a row where the 2021 just like the covid thing like yeah the vote by mail obviously would happen

afterwards and then before where it was just like this huge surprise with this candidate who you know broke our brains and broke all of our political models and whatever like this one's gonna be even weirder because it's gonna feel a little bit more normal because we have like even though like this unprecedented thing happened where the candidate you know the sitting president this one's going to be even weirder because it's going to feel a little bit more normal because we have like, even though like this unprecedented thing happened where the candidate, you know, the sitting president essentially like handed the reins over. Yeah. So it's a,

it's another weird one. And I, you know, the thing that always happens, you know, next week we'll, we'll, we'll have known,

you know, maybe we'll know who, who the next president is going to be. Well, it always feels obvious afterwards where you're like, of course, you know, and I think for, you know, right now it's like, well, of course, like women are voting like crazy. Like maybe that's going to be the thing, or maybe it's going to be like Republicans

voted early. Finally, like that's the thing we don't know. Yeah. Well, I mean, look, I think that we'll just, however long it takes, it takes PA to count the votes is when we'll find out who wins the election right basically maybe I don't know if so North Carolina is one of those states that drops a big number early but it takes them forever to certify so if North Carolina were to come out big for Harris that would shape the whole night because that drops at what seven or eight eastern if that happens then we're all of a sudden like the whole trump playbook changes it seems at least based off of the early vote unlikely she wins north carolina yeah but it'll be it'll be closer if it's close if it's not like oh man trump walked away with this one if that happens then trump gets a lot of momentum in how he handles the rest of the night if it's like man it's close like can't tell that would be very interesting yeah north

is my home state it's an odd state so we're going to have a a blue governor again a blue like blue lots of blue and then red president it's just interesting how the the state votes yeah maybe. Did you vote already? No, I like to do it on Tuesday. Oh, interesting. Probably because my polling place is like, literally I can walk to it. It's like 30 seconds away.

It's in this church in the front of my neighborhood. And like, no one's ever there. I just go like at 10 o'clock on Tuesday morning. No one's there. And the polling, like my wife voted already. Everyone I talked to that voted early said the line was was long i'll just go in the morning and i mean no one's at 10 a.m who's who's voting at 10 a.m ever the morning crowd is beaten you beat the lunch crowd and you're before the dinner crowd the night crowd obviously so i don't know just walk in and vote and do what I got to do. I like doing election day.

I think I voted early in 16. I did vote early in 16. It's also like, this is a gripe of it, but like the early voting place is a library. And it just, the parking lot, the canvassers, Matt, and like, it's just, it's a lot. And this place I go vote at for election day is not. It's just way less intense. It's just, it's way more chill and like calm. And like, there's not a thousand signs outside and people trying to canvas and get your,

and people ask you who you vote, your exit poll stuff, Matt. Like, you vote you get done with you move along uh so that's why i do it i've lived in and this you know maybe tipping my hand a little bit of who i might have voted for but i've only lived in i i think you're listening to us you you know who we voted for yeah probably if you're listening in minute 50 yeah and who we voted for. Yeah, probably. If you're listening, admit it at 50. Yeah. And if you don't, I don't know. I have plenty of friends who vote for the other side. I'm still friends with them.

I think it's weird if you're not friends with people voting the other side. But nonetheless, yes. Okay. So you were saying what? Well, I've never been exit polled. I've never really even been harassed by campaign volunteers. I've been a campaign volunteer a couple of times but i've never like i've only lived in maryland illinois new york and california in my life so i've never it's i've never even been in a state where it's like who's gonna win the presidential like it's

all 100 like like they call it immediately in all four of my states which maybe you know dude i've got i should get out more but you probably get harassed all the time buddy i've gotten one text one uh two mine are all donate they're not or come volunteer it's not like come answer our poll i've gotten i've gotten four texts today one was about uh that i haven't voted yet but my wife voted so go vote uh wow yeah yeah that's what it says someone in your household already voted but our records you have not voted yet um i got that one i got a picture of the vote of the church the voting place to vote on tuesday like it's right here it's a picture of it wow um and then i got a text from um oh so this is real i got this text a bunch don't hold on to

that absentee ballot any longer jeffrey head to stand with crypto vote center to for return information whatever that means um wow oh so that's that's gonna be like an elon trump website probably and then i got a kamala text but i always spell my name wrong spelled with a j every time so it always feels like they're real inviting like they want my vote that's so interesting this is actually like a an actual example of a get out the vote operation because i get i get literally i get four texts a day the the party whichever party it was you didn't mention who is the one saying like here is your polling place well no you have not voted yet it doesn't the polling one does not give a party

it doesn't get it doesn't say like who it's from it's not the government dude it's a party that knows i know but it says max vote who is that i don't know who that's affiliated with. I can look it up, I guess. I assume it's Democratic, but like MaxVote? I don't know. MaxVote. Definitely going to be... Oh, it says here... It's a spam. I don't know.

We're going to have to get to the bottom of this. That's AllVote. There's been spam ones coming called AllVote that says you have voted, but you actually haven't. haven't yeah dude there's a lot going on so vote yeah oh i maybe vote for the non-asshole preferably but please vote okay what why would that one uh uh unlike prominent newspapers in this country we have given a political endorsement on this podcast again if you listen to this podcast this is like episode

400 I think if you listen this much I think you know our boss so thank you very much for joining us we'll be back on Friday good luck everyone have a good weekend see you buddy Have a good weekend. Bye-bye.