Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Week 9 Reactions and NFL Week 10 Best Bets

Episode Date: November 8, 2024

Geoff is back with another episode of Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You. On today's show, Geoff and Matt recap week 9 of the NFL. Plus, a look ahead into week 10 of the NFL with Geoff's Best Bets.Be sure to follow the pod to get notified when a new episode drops each week, and follow @GeoffSchwartz on Twitter/X for more NFL and CFB comments. Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You will be live streamed on Twitter/X and YouTube every Friday all season long.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

All right, we're here. It is Friday, November 8th. I'm Jeff Schwartz. That is Matt Ford. This is Jeff Schwartz of Smarter Than You. We're talking all things football, really National Football League. We're going to go through all the games. We're going to hopefully do better than we did last week, Matt,

which wasn't a great week, but we're going to be better. Because guess what? It can't be any worse, first of all. Two, there's an article today that DraftKings is actually telling people they're going to lose money because the public has been crushing the NFL right now. The public, every public bet wins every single week. There's a creator who gives picks, who's like purposely sort of bad,

like that's sort of his gig. He's won like 13 of 14 primetime wagers in a row. Sides, sides in the National Football League, primetime wagers. So good for Sides. Sides in the National Football League. Primetime wagers. So good for him, by the way. But it's a very public set, so hopefully it changes around. But more importantly, Matt, this has been a big week for the country, a big week for me and you personally.

It's Oregon-Maryland this weekend. And are you going to watch the Oregon-Maryland game, Big Ten Network, 7 p.m. Eastern, Saturday night? Probably not. There's lots of other things to do with my time than watch my team lose by 70. But I will say I went there for first-timers, which I went to Oregon. I do get the booster emails, the various fan site emails. And I read one this week that was like, great debut for the freshman center on the basketball team, big game

against Marquette on Friday. And can we keep it within four touchdowns? And I was like, I don't love our chances. You're all in the basketball season. I'm sure. I don't know, man. I'm pretty much an NFL monogamist until i'm called upon to you know understand something else for work reasons but nfl i i follow you know i would follow this much anyway um but i also happen to make it my job so goodbye me uh we i mean we can save our sort of country corner for the end of this but you know anything you want to get talk about before we start start the show i'm glad i refrained from every single political tweet that

crossed my head the last two years really i tweeted heavy in 2016 and realized it wasn't really worth it i've sort of stayed away from uh my political beliefs since then um and i'm gonna try to do the same so um yeah i mean look think we've been on no bones about our political leanings over other shows we've done. Um, I'm actually, oh, I just turned to my page, my notebook that all my political wages that we talked about two weeks ago. Not great. No, it didn't go, didn't go well.

Um, so I don't know. I, we talked about 2020, I made a lot of money in the election, 2024. I didn't, I don't know. That's sort of the way elections go feels like so um hey uh it is what it is right on to the next one i agree next one hopefully we can be on to the next one in the nfl buddy we are 1925 and one and as we mentioned um public is winning like they just are uh a lot of these road favorites keep covering matt um a lot of the the money line parlay legs keep winning even last night where um bangles now

lose to the ravens a great second half of the ravens four straight drives at the end with four touchdowns in a row and i um i uh i i don't have a glaring takeaway from the game other than like the Bengals keep losing these close games. And it's not really anyone's fault per se on the team. Like it's not Zach Taylor's fault. It's not Joe Burrow's fault. You can lay maybe the blame on the general manager for not signing all their defensive pieces.

There's like no grand takeaway. It was a great football game. I'm glad they went for two at the end. Why would you not? It's Joe Burrow against the Ravens defense that gives up a ton of pass yards or go to overtime, possibly gets the Ravens. The offense just scored four touchdowns

in a row against you guys. So I like the decision to go for two. It just was like, it's a good football game. There's not much to draw from it, in my opinion. Yeah, I mean, that's fair. I think my takeaway is more on the baltimore side they've got a real issue on that defense man and i know that jamar chase every time that he plays them he just goes crazy he does yeah but you know if when you look

at these sort of like really complete teams like you know the chiefs are sort of this own their own thing but everybody else has this big flaw and bal Baltimore's pass defense, when Kyle Hamilton went out and the next possession, I think, was that Jamar Chase just bomb up the middle where they were playing that quarters and no one was covering the middle of the field and everyone was freaking out. What's going on here? They've got some issues and they play the wrong team

in the first rounds. I don't know. I feel like they could they could really be in danger if they played a team with like a very good vertical passing attack like i know they're in a different conference but like i feel like the rams would be the ravens you know what i mean like just just the way that they can sort of attack you passing wise even though i think talent levels are totally different there um i don't know i just i would worry if i was the ravens who i feel like they're getting a lot of credit for

being one of the best teams and then still can give up 40 points every week. That's why I think the Chiefs and Buffalo are winning that conference, not the Ravens right now. You can't be that bad on defense and win a bunch of playoff games in a row. You have to be perfect on offense. Anything that goes poorly for you on offense, you lose the game.

It's not great. They allowed a ton of yards to Tampa Bay. They allowed a ton of yards to the Commanders, right? They allowed a ton of yards. Was it Commanders? Was it Commanders? Yeah, that was a touchdown game, yeah. Yeah. And so, no, the Broncos are who they are.

They're not great on offense. They allowed a ton of points last night. All right, Matt. Can I bring up one more Bengals point? Let's get to the slate for this weekend. Can I do one more Bengals thing? Yes. So I kind of feel like we might be witnessing the end of

the bangles a little bit because now they're four and six they might make the playoffs but you know and if they do then anything goes but you look at their who's under contract next year you've got burrow you've got chase and i think his last year and then they have all these like big name guys like hendrickson and sheldon rankins and Hubbard and like these big cap hits and you know this owner then their ownership there they don't like to spend I just feel like this team might all of a sudden have the bottom fall out and we're seeing it now where they just don't have the depth that they did because they had to go big on burrow I'm just kind of wondering if like their windows closed you know it's a good question so um I think the discussion becomes the front office not preparing

like they should for them to pay all their players. It's not a great front office. That's inclusion, right? They're cheap, at least. Not great. Like, the Chiefs prepared for this. The Chiefs prepared. They've kept Chris Jones.

They kept Travis Kelsey. They obviously kept Patrick Mahomes. They added an all-pro left guard. They have added safeties in the past. They've added these players. And the Bengals, for Mahomes, they added an all-pro left guard. They have added safeties in the past. They've added these players. And the Bengals, for whatever reason, just can't seem to figure out their offensive line. A bunch of hits last night again.

I saw a tweet that was like, oh, Panay Sewell wouldn't have caught 200 yards last night. I'm like, yeah, Joe Burr wouldn't have been hit 13 times. And Panay Sewell's on a team, by the way, it's the one seed in the NFC, and a favorite to go to the Super Bowl. So I don't know what slam dunk is that. I don't know what that is.

They haven't prepared. They've put off contracts. They've put off building the team the way that it should. And it's wasting Joe Burrow's prime years as a quarterback. I think we all agree Joe Burrow is one of the best. Him and really Allen are the two I'm most afraid about in the postseason. I'm not afraid of Lamar. We've seen Lamar play the chiefs multiple times.

It hasn't gone very well. I'm afraid of Joe Burrow and really Joe Burrow, Joe Burrow one, Josh Allen, two Lamar three. That's my like hierarchy of quarterbacks. The NFC side I'm afraid of. So I, you know, I, I think that, that they're wasting this time, you this time by not being able to win enough games. Very interesting. Hopefully that won't come back to bite you with all of the bots watching us on X.

None of them will clip this and share it again in the playoffs when they play the Ravens. I mean, okay. Prove me wrong, Ravens. You didn't bite on my X joke. Fine, okay. I'm with you, though. I have a bunch of bots that got eliminated from my follower count. It was nice. I lost like

600 followers. It was great. If only you were tweeting about the other side. All right, let's talk about something other than that. Let's talk about the game in Munich. Dear Lord. Do we have to? No, we don't.

The Panthers are six and a half point dogs to the Giants in this neutral field game. Total split of money and tickets. All of the public is on the Panthers for some reason. That seems crazy. I would take the Giants. I mean, Giants plus six and a half. It's not the worst wager. I mean, Panthers plus six and a half. It's not the worst wager. Oh,, Giants plus six and a half, I think. It's not the worst wager. I mean, Panthers plus six and a half.

It's not the worst wager. Oh, the Panthers plus six and a half. Yeah, yeah. Oh, I messed it up. You said people in the Giants or Panthers? The big money is on the Giants. And all the tickets are on the Panthers. I don't know in what world we would ever take a side in this game.

No, we're not. I'm telling you the Giants are six and a half. Are you telling me the Giants, at this game was played in MetLife stadium would be over touchdown favorite. It's Carolina. Yeah. I don't think so. I definitely think so.

Really? Okay. Watch the Panthers, man. They're, they're horrible. All right. Most people,

we're not going to play. I mean, we're going to play anyway, so we'll just skip it. Okay. Save time. Uh, boy,

another time saver. Probably the bears length six to the Patriots. Uh, oh boy. Uh, buddy of mine, sharp guy took Patriots plus seven on Monday. So,

um, I don't think we can play six now, but, uh, obviously felt good about the Patriots in this spot. I think it's a fair fade. The bears who are not very good. Yeah.

I don't really know what's going on with the bears, but this, you know, they're a poorly coach. They kept it. Refuse. Why, why keep your foos?

Should have fired him, hired Ben Johnson and just started from scratch last season. Yeah. And during this season, I, I, I don't, I agree.

Um, I think that's probably what they're going to end up doing this, this coming year. Uh, and maybe it'll work, but I don't know. The Patriots have been better. Like they, every week they're going to end up doing this coming year. And maybe it'll work. But I don't know. The Patriots have been better. Like, every week they're kind of up and down.

And the Bears have been just consistently underwhelming. I don't know. There is a six and a half out there. But I don't love that for New England. I don't know if I trust them yet. No. Man, there's some real ugly ones this week, including the next one. The Vikings, length seven in Jacksonville.

Man, you can't find anybody willing to bet on Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence probably missing this game, but Mac Jones will come in, and who knows? He can't be worse. We don't dare take Jacksonville, right? So I actually think that Jacksonville plus four with Trevor Lawrence would have been in discussion. But Jacksonville plus seven with Mac Jones is not a discussion. Yeah, probably not.

Probably not. I mean, also, this is just going to be a, let's see what the weather is in Jacksonville. Probably warm. Dude, it's 78 degrees in Charlotte todayotte today with 67 humidity it's insane like just a rainy humid 78 humidity 81 degrees on sunday in florida like don't love the vikings traveling out there that just feels like one of those weird games where you're like wait how is this close like mac jones like huh it's usually the backup quarterback can come in and give you a little bit of a, of an edge.

I would probably be on Jacksonville here. Also like again, last week we talked about the favorites. They covered 14 out of the 15, 14 out of 15. I think they only missed once and it was Bryce young and the Panthers upsetting the saints. So I do feel like the road favorites, especially are going to be a little overinflated again this week. So there might be some value in the Jags,

but man, it would take some stones to bet them. Yeah, probably, probably not. Probably not. Now. I don't think you'd match.

No way. Match on the first start of the season. No chance. Well, there's another, there's, there's some other home dogs we might like instead. Next up,

a game. i will be very dialed into pittsburgh at washington washington is now laying three after sitting at two and a half for most of the week um i know you have an opinion here so let's hear it yeah i think washington's the side um i know you disagree with me um but and i hate to be against everyone who's on the sealers this week but let against everyone who's on the Steelers this week, but let's listen. Everyone's on the Steelers this week, right? Everyone we know, every, every, not even just those, those people, everyone else on the Steelers, the, the, the ticket count, the Steelers, the bet numbers, everyone's on Pittsburgh this week. But let's talk for a second about the quarterbacks they played this season.

You ready? Yep. Week one was Kirk Cousins off an ACL, an Achilles injury, his first start of the season. And they played Bo Nix, his second start of the season. And Justin Herbert came to town and got hurt during their game. They lost to Flacco, lost to Dak. They played whatever the corpse of the Raiders quarterback was that game. Aaron Rodgers and Daniel Jones.

That's probably the worst quarterbacking any team has faced the entire season through eight games. They're facing a real quarterback this weekend. The Washington Commanders are a real football team with a real quarterback, a real offensive plan. They're good on third down. Yes, Watt and Highsmith are going to get there at certain times in this game. Lattimore not playing.

Worries me about Washington's defense. It's gotten better each week. We sort of talked about this, worries me about Washington's defense. It's gotten better each week. We sort of talked about this, Matt, about Washington's defense and the Steelers have shown sort of they're going to do three things in offense, run, run the football,

move the pocket play action pass to get Russell Wilson off the spot and sort of make it easier reads for him and throw go balls. Like I think Dan Quinn will have a plan for this. I like Washington minus three. I'm going to, I think I'm in the huge minority here. I don't think you want this wager either. The Steelers, by the way, go Commanders, Ravens, Browns, Bengals, Browns, Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, Bengals.

Plus 300 to miss the playoffs. Not the worst wager. Yeah. Interesting. Obviously, the Steelers coming off a bye there obviously you know Mike Tomlin as a as a road dog 17 10 and 1 against the spread uh oh no sorry 41 28 and 1 as a road dog when they have a worse record he's 17 10 and 1 um I I don't hate it I mean I think it's basically like, do you trust your eyes?

Because this Washington team is just like, they've just floored it on everybody this year. And obviously, yes, there's a lot of talk. How does Daniels play against this really good defensive line? Pittsburgh has only averaged about two sacks a game. And Washington last week played the giants

who uh lead the league in sacks still by a wide margin and didn't give up any and that was with their you know we've done this like interesting left tackle rotation thing this year um and they're one of those guys was out so they've been really impressive on the offensive line uh they've been just impressive all around the three. The fact that it's still three despite every single person in the world betting Pittsburgh is interesting. It's reverse line movement, I would think. So I'm open to it. I think, you know, it's kind of a crossroads game for each of these teams, right? Like if Pittsburgh

is a real team, they'll win this game. And same for Washington. If Washington's a real team, if Daniels is really that guy and is an MVP conversation, he'll win this game. So I'm fine with it, man. Like I think the crowd's going to be wild. It's going to be a fun game.

Oh yeah. I'll take it. I mean, it's, I would probably be, yeah, well, I mean, we'll, we'll maybe it, but there's not a ton of games we love on the slate. So no, let's put it in the mix. Uh, yeah,

real hard sell getting me to bet on the chain. Uh, okay. Next game. I might have to tell you on this one, Buffalo at the Colts, uh, the road favorites.

Give me the flack. Oh, let's go. So I'm in the Colts. Let's do it. We got it. I'm at the Colts, uh, do it. We got to bet the Colts. Buffalo, just not, you know, Buffalo, you talk about a team that hasn't really played anybody.

Buffalo hasn't beaten a team with a winning record this year. They just have not there. I think they're a very overinflated team. Their last couple wins. Let's see. Dolphins, Seahawks, Titans,ans jets uh lost to the texans got smoked by the ravens killed the jags and beat the dolphins am i supposed to be impressed with any of those wins beat the cardinals okay uh so i don't know i just i don't think that they're as good as people

think i think we're obviously getting a really nice buy low spot on the colts who look terrible didn't get in the red zone against a really good defense. Buffalo's defense is not as good as the Vikings defense. And they also, the way you can beat Buffalo is you run the ball, right? Like they, they are susceptible against the run.

And obviously that's what the Colts do well. So I think this is just a good bounce back spot for the Colts. It'll, it should be a close and fun game. And I just, I don't think Flacco, you know, is as bad as he looked last week.

Yeah. I don't, you're not incorrect. Um, but, uh, yeah, I'm going to,

you're right. This is a wager you have to make. Yeah. All right. We'll, we'll put it in. We have to bet one of these home dogs. Um, and yeah, I just think the Colts are a professional team. We have to bet one of these home dogs. Um,

and yeah, I just think the Colts are a professional team. We have to be one of those home dogs because I'm going to make a case for road favorite coming up. You're going to hate it, but it's going to be, no, I think we have the same one circled.

I hope so. Um, maybe not though. All right. This it's not this one, uh, because there is no road favorite. The Broncos are plus seven and a half in Casey,

man. We missed a good number on this. It just keeps coming down. Well, then, okay. I know what the road favorite is that you want to take because it's also what I want to take. Okay, great. It's my favorite bet of the week, by the way.

Like, I took first half already. It's my best bet on my Bear Bets podcast. This is the Broncos. I don't know. I mean, nine would have been great, Matt, but the Chiefs in this game were to make the same argument for the next game, by't know. I mean, nine would have been great, Matt. But the Chiefs in this game were going to make the same argument for the next game, by the way. I think the next

game's coming up. Short week, beat up quarterback, physical game on Monday night. I got to Broncos. It was embarrassing the week before. And I don't believe in look-ahead spots per se, but they go to Buffalo next week. This is like a classic,

like 20 to 17 win for the chiefs, ugly it up. You have that long nine minute drive to end the game. And you just sort of squeak by. I like Denver here. Plus the seven. I'm rare. I rarely will bet on my team.

The other team would take the points, but I think this is the, actually it's a really good wager to make. Yeah, I do too. Um, I like this one. I'm sad. We're doing this Friday because we would have liked it at eight or eight and a half or nine where it was nine.

Yeah. Um, Peyton as an underdog, 56, 38 and two, uh, my homes as a huge favorite. Uh, I can't find the number, but we all know it. He's, he's not great when he's, when it's over three, uh, it's a huge favorite. I can't find the number, but we all know it. He's not great when it's over three. It's a loser, actually. Yeah, I think. And also, let's remember, you mentioned that the Broncos got embarrassed. This is kind of their Super Bowl here.

They have to show up in this game. They have to, if they're going to make a claim to make the playoffs, this is a really, really important game for them and not so much for the chiefs. Um, so yeah, I'm good with it. I think this,

this one makes sense. I wish we could, maybe by the end of the podcast, someone will hit the seven and a half and we'll get an eight. I'm going to look anyway, just in case to see if there's another, uh, Ooh,

I do see an eight actually one, one, one book, two books, valleys and bed rivers. We're going to take eight. Okay. All right. Plus eights. Love that. All right. Uh, valleys and bed rivers. We're going to take eight. Okay. All right.

Plus eight. Love that. All right. Falcons at saints. Skip. Skip. Everyone's taking the saints plus three and a half. Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait.

The Falcons is the world favorite. You like? No, no. God, no. But everyone's taking the saints. This is like, this is the game that everyone circled is like, yeah, you know, i don't even know what the case is it's just like it's the team artificial coach bump with their when there's not or coaches being fired um do you want to skip this for time buddy sure all right this is the number we're getting.

See if I can find a six. I don't think so. This case is very simple, guys, okay? Tampa Bay played on Monday night. Their defense played 83 snaps. Their defense got pounded by the Chiefs. Like, it wasn't 83 finesse snaps. It was 83 physical snaps.

They go back home on a short week. Guess who shows up? The Niners run game with Christian McCaffrey off a bye. This game smells 45-21. It smells like a Niners just they're going to unload the offense on Tampa Bay's

tired defense and then the other side how are they going to score? They're going to dig and dunk their way down the field like against like i just i know they play against kansas city's defense they certainly did but i feel like this is gonna be depressed tampa team at home on a short week love the niners matt yeah and by the way they need this game the niners right they're four and four they're looking up at the Cardinals at five and four. You said it. There's not a ton to add there.

I think this is a absolute smash spot for San Francisco. And the poor Bucks, man. I feel like every week they're playing. They have had such a brutal schedule and the injuries and some really bad luck, like the Falcons overtime game. So tough season for them. But I think San Francisco is a home run there. I'd like your first half play too.

Alright, next game is the Titans at the Chargers. The Chargers what a team, man. Seven and a half point home favorites to the Titans. Can we skip also? Sure, we can skip. We've got four we like and we're running out of runway here. I would probably still take the Chargers there if i had to yeah probably all right jets at cardinals curious if you have a take here the jets are slight road favorites one and a half points okay so you know how you said this season they're like the browns are the sharp team everyone keeps playing the sharps keep playing

the jets are that team now yeah sharps have hammered the jets for what what are the jets done that you're gonna hammer the jets i i look i am worried taking the cardinals because i don't know exactly sort of what their calling card is i mean obviously colin murray is incredible but we know the jets calling card is they're not very good that's their calling card on the road in arizona um there i'd be very pleased to take arizona plus the one and a half i actually see a plus two out there um sharps have been on it new york all week man i don't get it yeah uh i think i would be open to this um man i mean this is just the time of the year where the cardinals always go away right like they start to fade they don't have kingsbury anymore okay you mean the coordinator of the year favorite cliff kingsbury uh offensive genius i mean i will say like the jets you know

they it was it could be a fluky you know short week win uh they did just lose to the patriots two weeks two weeks ago so yeah i think the cardinals are probably a good play here plus two i mean i'm not obsessed with it but it's a baby plus two that's fine uh they should that's games a coin flip um yeah i don't know why where all this faith in the jets has come from like they won one game like everyone calm down uh all right we've got three more on the slate there's at least there's two I might like here Cowboys

plus seven at hosting the Eagles I am forbidden from betting on games involving the Cowboys after a really brutal path the last two weeks so if you have an opinion here please by all means one over 91 and a half yards that's the play in this

game this is a sad state of affairs in dallas man cowboys not very good um run defense not very good um they i know that was baked into the number because the cube rush was announced as a starter and his number did not move at all so uh skip just just to skip i had nothing on this game besides that yeah fair enough hey i i have a buddy of work, uh, was trying to make the case that he would rather be a Patriots fan than a Cowboys fan right now. I thought that was the most insane thing I've ever heard. And I think it's NBA brain affecting these NFL fans. I'm like, well, you can get a higher pick, whatever.

But do you think Dallas is just like a coach and maybe a healthy quarterback and just some new vibes away? Or do you think they're in teardown mode? Was this a Hank Groberg opinion? It was not, but it sounds like one of his. Yeah. Something who in the office, I don't know everyone in the office. You have to. Yeah.

I don't think you know, Daniel. It was Daniel. No, I don't know. Daniel. Maybe I do. I don't know. That is NBA brain, right? Yes.

Who would I rather be? The ability to Cowboys? Yeah. Cause you have Dak Prescott and like, he's good. Yeah. See, this is what I'm saying, but I thought it was an interesting argument and I'm sure some people listening are like, what are you talking about? You've Drake man, a top five pick. Great. You need a hundred top five picks. Um, Texans hosting the lions Texans plus three and a half. Nope. You won't do it, huh? Why would I jump in front of that? Oh, well, I mean, I don't know. I guess I know what side you're on.

Why don't I jump in front of that Lions train, buddy? Yeah, I just think it's the top of the market on them and everyone's out on the Texans. Yeah, but the Texans are not playing good football. Like, that's why. If Neal Collins doesn't play and Diggs doesn't play, their offense has been terrible. They can't pass protect.

The Lions, I know we had the Packers last week. We loved the Packers last week. The Lions feel like a wagon right now that's not going to be derailed. They have no weaknesses. They're playing well each week. Last week was a perfect spot for them not to play well. Outside, on grass, bad weather, and they just beat up Green Bay.

They just beat them up. I'm not stepping in front of the Lions train, in my opinion. I don't know. What's the case for the Lions? I mean, the Texans, just that the Lions are overvalued? There's no Texans case, other than just the number, I guess, you're playing. Yeah, you're playing the number, and Stroud as a dog is just

way better. and four versus five and ten against spread as a favorite uh you know it's basically like hey are the texans good or are they not good and if you believe in the texans you'd like them here i'm not gonna stand on the table for this one um but i do think the three and a half is at least worth the discussion so we can rule it out i I, I, you know, I would probably say the lions cover this, but it wouldn't be the dumbest bet in the world if we liked it. So pass,

but we are, we only do have five and one of them, at least one of them is soft. Maybe this is one we like, uh, the Monday night game is the Rams hosting the dolphins one or one and a half for the Rams. What am I missing here?

Why isn't this like three and a half? I think Sharps have hit Miami. Yeah, but why? Has anyone watched Miami this year? Yeah, I just feel like the Rams should be the side. I felt this all week. I felt this one was kind of odd. I just feel like I don't know what's going on here.

And I just feel like the Rams every week, they're a really public team I get that but I just feel like they're undervalued every single week for some reason and it's like if you look at their team and you just put these two teams aside and just look at this year the Dolphins

offense has not been so much better since Tua got back like it's better HN's been good but the defense is not good the defense is 28 to give. Like, it's better. A-chan's been good. But... Their defense is not good. Their defense is 28th in DVLA. No, it's not been good. And, like, it was okay in the beginning of the season,

but it hasn't kept up. And the Rams defense, like, they've been able to get pressure. Like, they've been able to create some turnovers. They had, obviously, a huge one last week

at the end of the game to save them against Seattle. But I just think the Rams are better across the board. Even Miami strength, the wide receivers, the Rams are better right now, at least. So I just don't see why the Rams aren't. It's like, are the Dolphins fans going to travel and make this make

so far like not a home field? Like, I don't get this one. So you like the Rams? Yeah. And like, I get it. They played an overtime game on the road like but they have an extra day like i feel like they're i feel like i don't know what i'm missing here i agree i felt like this one's been odd all week it's just a money line play too it's just

minus one yeah you could just yeah um yeah i'm uh i i'm gonna look at the splits on this one so right now we we have three for sures and a couple hard maybe. So Indy plus four, Denver plus eight, Niners minus six and a half. Those are our three that I think we absolutely love. The other three, we basically just have three left. It's Rams, Cardinals, and Commanders, right? Those are the three that we liked otherwise. Yeah.

The Rams one. I'm looking at the numbers here. I like the Rams in numbers here. Yeah. I like the Rams in this game. Me too, man. Stafford and McVay, 26 and 8 straight up as favorites. Pretty impressive. 6 and 14 straight up as underdogs.

Let's put the Rams in there. Let's do that. And then just minus one. I guess the question is, too, do we take Arizona plus two, or do we go ahead and take the commanders? Like basically buck everyone's pick and take the commanders. Yeah. Either side. We're sort of taken the other way.

Um, I'm scared of the commanders one, honestly, but like, I can't tell if that's just because I was on it. Then I had to, it's too close to them. We can do Arizona. Then you want to do Arizona. God because I'm too close to them. We can do Arizona then.

You want to do Arizona? God. I mean, the Jets suck. The Jets is road favorites. I feel like we have to go against them. Let's take Arizona. Yeah. But you like Washington.

They're one of your best bets. I feel like we maybe should stick with them. I mean, I've given that out on other podcasts. Everyone knows that I like Washington minus three. So we'll give that one as a bonus. We'll stay. We have to, we talked about this. Like we have to sort of like, we have a couple that we can always push through, but if you don't like it, we're not pushing it through. I mean, so the bets. So right now, I mean,

64% of the tickets and 68% of the money's on the, on the Steelers. Yeah. Everybody loves Steelers. Yeah. Everybody loves Steelers. And then I wonder what's the jets one, because I feel like that's going to be the same way. Um, let's see. Shout out to our friends at action network for these.

Um, it's about even right now. But the thing about it, the thing about these splits though, is that like they vary from, they vary from, um, uh, whatchamacallit from book to book. about the thing about these splits though is that like they vary from they vary from um uh what you would call it from book to book like i bet mgm will have different splits uh and whatnot

so um maryland plus 24 and a half i guess oregon i took i think so i'm waiting what here's what i'm waiting Matt. 20 point teaser. I was 23 and a half now. Okay. There we go. This was waiting in the line. There you go. Oregon.

I like Oregon. First half minus 13 and a half. I was waiting for this number to go down today. Cause college football guys, if you, if you sort of follow the market, dogs get hammered on Fridays and Saturdays for college football. So if you, like a dog, take the number early in the week, if you, like a favorite, wait,

because a lot of money comes in on the dogs. I just got a text from someone who's taking UCLA plus seven. I actually like Iowa minus six, so I'm on the other side of that. But if you just wait till Friday and Saturday to take favorites, you most often get a better number. Oregon is one of the best teams in the first half of the country. They've only scored, they average just under four points a game in the third quarter. It's a very specific thing.

They're not good in third quarter. Oregon first half. All right. Fair enough. I mean, sounds like you're a little afraid of, of, of Maryland.

Just, you know, covering that big number because there's such a dark doesn't cover these big numbers. So they don't, they don't try when the game's over. Yeah. All your teams are the same,

huh? So are we taking the Cardinals? Is that what we're doing? Yeah. So we have Indianapolis, Denver, San Francisco, Los Angeles,

and Arizona. I like it. A lot have Indianapolis, Denver, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Arizona. I like it. A lot of pluses, a lot of pluses. We like pluses. I'm so lost in this year. I don't know what's, I don't know what's, what is what right now? I have no idea. Last question. I would, I would entertain swapping Indy for Washington. I am just realizing we're taking Joe Flacco against the bills. I would, I would entertain swapping Indy for Washington. I am just realizing we're taking Joe Flacco against the bills. But Indy's the, Indy's the right play.

Indy's the right side. Yeah. All right. Let me just, let's just do it. All right. We're giving out six. We're taking those five. It is the right side.

Oh boy. Let's get rid of this, Matt. So I give out college ball picks on Twitter at Jeff Schwartz. All right. Or X, whatever you want to call it now. Also the owner of that, of that, of that company seems to be in now, him of this matt so i give out college ball picks on twitter at jeff schwartz all right or x whatever you want to call it now also the owner of that of that of that company seems to be in now a national uh what what what's the right word rfk junior charge but what could go wrong

i uh he's a he's a negotiator now a wartime negotiator um i'm 59 over five years matt no one seems to care it's kind of weird like i post my plays on twitter get like 10 likes i i all i do is win in college football i don't get a brag more let's use your platform i document them all the time we can see my wins and losses i add i add plays like i'll like add stuff um i like i just i add plays throughout the weekend sometimes and i don't know i'm 22 i mean 28 and 22 this season 153 and 107 lifetime so i'm 59 58 and a half percent it's no one seems to care matt it's very good if i walk with my shirt off that might help yeah about that walk this way i thought i thought i thought about that no so if you want

to follow my cultural place would you say you have a messaging problem or an information problem or would you say you'd blame it on other structural factors all the above for those who are unaware just just a line we can leave it there i say that a lot of text about political things and matt because matt has a little bit of background in it and he explains to me whether or not political article is correct or not can i learned a lot from that? Can I have one, one minute then? Yes. Okay. This is, if you're still listening to this and you want to learn something about politics, you're wrong. Like you're just, you're wrong. Like I'm telling you you're wrong and we're all wrong and it's really hard to do. And it sort of reminds me of like this thing that

happens online where there's this, and it's us, it's me. I'm one of them where we learn stuff. And then we're like, cool. I'm an expert now. I got it. COVID. I got it. Like whatever else is happening in the world. I understand it fully.

You don't understand it. It's really hard to win an election. It's really hard to get, understand what people are looking for. And then afterwards, everyone's like, well, duh, it was inflation. And it's like, it's hard. So just be a little humble, I guess, is what I'm saying to everybody, myself included. Like, we don't know anything. All we know is that Jane Daniels is going to win rookie of the year.

And these five bets are going five and out. That's all we know. We're all done. None of us know anything i will say it does feel like if your job you know football is pretty obvious like you can watch the game right you can give analysis afterwards if your job is to be in one of these like you know political stations or political podcasts have to talk about it in broad terms it probably feels difficult to come up with any sort of answers because there are no answers for anything right now. There's no answers in either direction. I mean, there are some, obviously, with certain demographics, how they

move to the right. Like, you can interview them and hear what they say. But, like, to be on a TV, I do empathize with people having to go on TV, Matt, and give, like, explanation about what happened, and we're four days removed from a major election. Yeah. It's hard. It takes time. There's a, we don't, we don't know. And it's really hard to win elections.

It's really hard. There've been 47 people who have ever won a presidency. Like it's not easy to win it. To be fair, it's been less, right? Cause Trump's won twice. Obama won twice. FDR won four times. Yeah, exactly. That's yes. It it's much less it's in the 20s that's crazy right think about that we've had president we've had

47 you know president slots but we've had obviously many repeats um over over our life um if stephen a runs are you in or out stephen a smith for president now that's something i can't talk about uh my do you think i was asking this other day um could the rock have won the presidency no no the rock would not have won the presidency why i don't know celebrity exactly everyone's everyone's like well you know like who would want is bernie or tim walls or the rock like none of them would have won i i actually agree with that i i don't think that i think look i um okay we're not gonna do this now i i have many thoughts

about why we're wrong about everything did um hey man i'm up three percent in the last three days so uh it is what it is um all right everyone we will talk to you guys next week um over under political text i send matt in the next probably 48 hours is probably by nfl sunday i probably don't know actually by

tomorrow midday tomorrow my entire twitter feed will be about, will be about college over, over. I know I have no one else to talk to about it. You can hit me. I'll just get mad. I'll just be like,

that's dumb. That's what I keep sending back. So he's like dealing with this. Matt has his kids under the weather a little bit. He's just getting like angry texts from me about like articles from the new athletic. They should have knocked on more doors and Southeast or Philadelphia. Fuck off.

No one knows. There's just some guy with a laptop in New York city. Who's like, it's me. I used to live there. I was that guy like, stop. None of you know anything.

All right. guy like stop none of you know anything all right oh all right bolts plus four broncos plus eight niners minus six and a half rams minus one and cards plus two you know something about that you do i don't uh all right guys on that note Matt's cussed twice in six years on this podcast. They've both been about the election in the last three weeks. Oh, my God. All right, guys. Have a good weekend, everyone. Talk to you guys next week. Bye.