Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Welcome to SuperContest Week 6

Episode Date: October 15, 2020

This Thursday on Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You: Le’Veon Bell has been set free, further turmoil in the SEC as Nick Saban and Greg Bryn test positive for COVID-19; plus, we're coming off a profitable 3-2 week and we'll preview each game ahead of week 6. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Thursday, October 15th. Le'Veon Bell has been set free. Further turmoil in the SEC as Nick Saban has coronavirus. And we came off a 3-2 week. We need a winning week. And we are back with week 6 of our Super Contest show on Thursdays as usual. I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford. Matt, by the way, everyone, just said he got done with a workout.

He's glad you can't smell on podcasts. So glad for all of us that we cannot smell Matt Ford. But welcome in, buddy. I'm really glad that made it to on air. That's awesome. Thanks, Jeff. Nice to see you. I'm a radio pro and anything you say off the air

typically makes it on the air, especially when we're doing radio. Before we get to our picks, and there's actually a lot of stuff I like this week. I like my strategy of basically not betting on bad teams anymore. A couple news and notes. We don't typically get to this on Thursdays on this show, but a lot of things happening around the sports world.

Le'Veon Bell was let go by the Jets in a move that, surprising but sort of not surprising, right? He has been a malcontent since he got there. Another example, by the way, of not paying running backs. Don't do it. It's not smart. It just seems very easy to get out of New York, right? We saw Jamal Adams complain. We saw Le'Veon Bell complain.

Please, Mekhi Becton, please, the left tackle, complain away. Sam Donald, complain. Get out of New York as soon as possible. So, look, I don't know where he goes, Matt, but the question, I think, becomes, does he have anything left in the tank for whatever team he goes to? I'm sure he does. You know, if Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore, I mean, Frank Gore is his former teammate now, had anything left, then I'm sure he does.

I think what's so interesting about Lev is he became almost like an icon with other players for taking this stand for sitting out for giving money back and it became like this almost like a cause and i you know it's it's just a fascinating story the whole way through i'm curious to sort of see like how players respond to this over time whether this is one of those like yeah look he cashed in he got his money like and now you. Like, and now, you know, maybe he's going to sign with the Patriots. Like that feels like something that could happen, but just an interesting situation the whole way around. But did he get his money? He's not making back that 15 million he lost with the Steelers.

And I guess you could say, well, look, Dak Prescott got hurt, right? Dak got hurt. And on the franchise tag, he can happen. Sure, it can happen. But more often than not, you play out your franchise tag and you get a big long-term deal after that, right? The Dak Prescott example is not how it works in the NFL typically. So, look, you want to say that he won.

I don't think he won, though. He's not making that money back for that season. And now he's going to go somewhere else and make even less money probably next year than he would have made with the Jets in year three. So, he did not win in this situation. I hope players do not look at that as an example of how to beat the system yeah and he's just damaged goods now nobody's gonna like remember him the way that you know two two three years ago that he was looked at as the best running back in the league it was like he was in that you know zeke mcafree barkley class before those guys sort of ascended um so yeah

it's a shame and by the way there was a lot of that success and its analytics are creeping their way into into more football and I'm for some of it against some of it I mean I think like everything there's some nuance in all of it right um we're seeing that you know running back yards are an offensive line stat more than they are maybe a running back stat um and levy on bell played behind an offensive line of pittsburgh that was really good and fit his running style really really well and he has not found that place to go i think actually that might be a spot for him to go back to his pittsburgh i don't know if he burned his bridges i don't it wasn't contentious right i mean not like antonio brown um but it was um it it it's a good spot for him

to go back to i like that idea a lot. I mean, remember last year they talked about trading for him and it was a big story that Pittsburgh might give up some draft capital to get it back. It's like, should he have even left? I remember that being a thing. Yeah. I mean, so I'm curious to see if he ends up back there. All right. Enough Jets to leave you on Bell Talk. No one cares about the Jets on this podcast except Gabe. And Gabe's not here right now, so we don't have to talk about it. Nick Saban and the Alabama athletic director, Greg Byrne, I believe, have tested positive for the coronavirus.

And what I found interesting about this, and by the way, I make it very clear, I hope that everyone is healthy and can remain that way. Is that out of all coaches in college football, Nick Saban, at least publicly, took COVID very seriously. One of the more serious coaches talking about wearing a mask, distancing. He took a charge this year, by the way, with his team in social justice and being forefront on that topic as well. And so I feel bad that the guy that was one of the coaches, one of the only ones, by the way, that was very strong about wearing a mask has contracted COVID. Yeah, it's crazy. I mean, it's just another reminder.

Like the president can get it. Nick Saban, who is more powerful in the state of Alabama than the president is, can get it too. So, you know, best of luck to him. A tough one for college football, but it seems like they're, you know, that the show will go on. The dichotomy between college football, man, and the NFL is still just incredible to me.

I mean, you know, Florida had to move their game this weekend because of 19 positive tests. You know, coaches Alabama are getting sick. Some places aren't even reporting. They're not reporting COVID positives. They're not daily testing in the SEC or the ACC. They're doing it in the Big Ten and the Pac-12 and the Big 12. It's just so different how we're treating both of these.

Look, again, I hope it's a wake-up call to people that COVID is real, for those who don't believe it, and that all along I've said this, and I feel pretty strongly in this still, that the most dangerous part of COVID in the building is the coaches. Nick Saban's in his 60s. He's in good shape, but he's still in his 60s. And COVID strikes the elderly a lot differently than it would strike a college athlete.

Yep, that's very true. And college athletes should be taken care of as well. But yeah, the discrepancy is alarming. If anything, you'd think it'd be more catered to protect the college kids. And that's what's interesting about how we look at this COVID stuff. I mean, the NFL and the PA negotiated a deal to play through COVID. College athletes didn't negotiate shit to play through COVID. And you would think that there'd be more uproar with that than anything else.

Yeah. It's pretty disappointing. I mean, it's not surprising. So I'll leave it like that. All right. Let's get to our picks for the week off of three and two week. I like where we're at last week. And I really like some of the picks that we have. At least we've talked a little bit about what we might do this

week. So let's get started here. Yeah, let's do it, Jeff. It feels like we're starting to sort of build something. This is the first week where things sort of felt like they opened up to me since week one, where that felt like things sort of made sense. So here we go. First game, week one where that felt like things sort of made sense. So here we go. First game, Chicago at Carolina. This is a great one to start with. Carolina's one and a half point home favorites. Feels like this is one of those lines that Vegas didn't really know what to do. What do you think? Yeah, it's pretty interesting. I guess the question becomes, how good is Carolina? Because Chicago offensively is not good. I mean, I think it's very clear now.

Even with Nick Foles. Nick Foles will go on a hot run and then cool down. A hot run and cool down. I don't know how you can bet on someone that has a hot run and a cool down. They're DVOA. They're 23rd in overall DVOA. They're 26th on offense, 5th on defense.

Carolina's not half bad, though. They're 9th on DVOA on offense. They're getting better each and every fifth on defense. Carolina's not half bad, though. They're ninth on DVOA on offense. They're getting better each and every week on defense. And we know that Teddy covers, or Teddy just covers, I should say, continued to cover last week. I'm just surprised at the line, honestly. I like the Panthers really, you know, laying a point in half. I've gone back and forth on this one all week.

The first thing is, this is the pros Joe's game of the week. 51% of the bets on the bears. So it's about split, but 84% of the money is on the bears. And this one opens at plus three. So it's been bet down uh lots you know all the money coming in on chicago and still coming i i just wanted these aren't necessarily related jeff but i just want to give you two really strange stats that i dug up in my research this week the bears the bears haven't scored in the third quarter really they're the only team even the

jets have scored in the third quarter they're the only only team in the NFL that hasn't scored in the third quarter. It's very strange. The other strange stat, and this one is just very hard to believe, Matt Nagy is 2-7 against the spread when he has a rest advantage over the other team. Really? In his coaching career. And he had those couple extra days because they had that weirdo game against Tampa on that Thursday night. So I don't none of those necessarily influence me.

I just found them so strange. I wanted to sort of air them out. Look, I think Teddy Bridgewater is reliable as like the scrappy underdog who covers. I don't know if I like him against maybe a better team as a slight favorite but the problem is foals like you know you know what you're getting like he's he had a great game then he had a stinker then he had a good game last week it's like who are you was he good last week he was just okay last week he was fine i mean they won the game and against a good defense so i don't know i just when you look at these two teams on paper,

it's clear that Chicago is better. And we have, you know, at the beginning of the season, we were pretty out on Carolina, but they've just been kind of good the way, you know, they played the last few weeks.

So I think we stay away. It doesn't feel right to me. Yeah. That's a pass. But isn't that Nagy, the rest advantage thing, just weird. And,

and the halftime thing, both those lean to not being a good coach that makes adjustments right or like a good game plan coach and not like a good adjustment coach or something you know there's some sort of thread there that we could probably pull on well i mean well the third quarter thing is is not making adjustments at halftime and the thing about you a longer period is you don't use that to your advantage. You don't use that to change who you are, to invent new plays, to do different things. I mean, that's what I think it means.

Not only how to use your time wisely. Yeah, that could be. Well, that's going to be a pass, speaking of using time wisely. Let's move on to the next one. Boom. And there it is. Wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. That's going to be a pass, speaking of using time wisely. Let's move on to the next one. Boom. And there it is. Wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. That's cool.

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internet required. Reduced speeds up to 20 gigabits of usage per line. Most reliable based on RootMetrics UL's report. Results vary. Non-endorsement. We've got Detroit going to Jacksonville. Detroit is a three-point road favorite. Please don't just pass this one because I have some feelings. Yeah. Please don't just pass this one because I have some feelings. Oh, please don't. Oh, please don't pass this one.

Okay. I have no feel for this game. I mean, the Lions would be my pick, but I just don't feel comfortable taking the Lions in this game. You know, Jacksonville is, I mean, they look good. They look bad. They're just a blah team, But I don't think Detroit's anything good either. So, I mean, I would lean the three points with the Jaguars at home. Yeah. That's how I started to feel.

And then I looked into this. Matt Patricia, not a great coach, Jeff. I don't know if I'm breaking any news to you there. Shocking. But he is 2-0 against the spread after the bye in his brief career okay um their problem i think detroit is their offense just like hasn't clicked like they integrate peterson galladay's been hurt now he's you know he played before the bye they had this weirdo early bye he's back he's healthier i you know they maybe have had some time to figure some things out this one is this is a crazy stat though uh road favorites off a buy win 69 percent of the time against the spread that's according to

our friends the action network the the lions have played some good teams this year I mean they've lost they lost the bears in a crazy game they should have won uh they lost to green bay no you know not a ton of shame in that. Beat Arizona and lost a close one to the Saints. Like, I think they're probably okay. And I think we're, I think people are still missing on Jacksonville. Like Jacksonville sucks. And they had one win in the beginning of the season where everyone was like, oh, Jacksonville, maybe they're better than we thought. I think Detroit's probably a decent bet here. It's just taking Detroit as a road favorite. And who wants to do that? No one wants to do that. You know, I think the points you made

are pretty hard to pass up. I mean, if you look at the road favorite off a buy, that just, I think, shows you that if you're a road favorite, you're typically the better team, right? And the better team uses the buy really well. And so when you look at that situation, it's not a bad bet though. I mean, sometimes these trends, man, they work for a reason. Like there are trends because there's things that we see happen and it happens all the time.

I mean, right? Like people try to poo-poo trends, but I think this, I don't know, man. I'm putting the maybe. How about in the maybes? Yeah, I like that. I think we're going to find plenty we like, but that's a decent one to consider. Okay. Detroit minus three at Jacksonville. Boom. In.

Okay. That's a maybe. Next one. The Dan Quinliss Atlanta Falcons plus three and a half at Minnesota. And I can tell this is going to be one you like. I love, love the Vikings in this game. And I'll give you a couple reasons why.

Obviously, they're one of four, right? And we love football. We talk about football as often. They're one of the best four and one teams, one in four teams that they've ever charted, right? They've ever charted. They had a positive DVOA for four of their first five games, right? They lost a weird fashion to Seattle the other night.

They lost the Tennessee Titans at the last second a couple weeks before that. And do you know their DVOA right now is 11th in the NFL? 11th. They're right behind 4-0 Tennessee and 4-0 Pittsburgh right and they are getting better each and every week in my opinion even though they're lost they're getting better each and every week but here's why I like the Vikings the Falcons are terrible right we're not betting on terrible teams anymore the reason why they're bad is not really because of Dan Quinn okay yeah it is because of Dan Quinn,

but removing him from the equation doesn't make them an automatically better football team, right? We talked about this last week. Teams off of coach firing do not cover at a high percentage. They're now 15 and 22 in the last, you know, the last, what,

30-ish games that's happened. And Houston, by the way, covered last week off that. They played a terrible Jacksonville team. You're playing a Vikings team that's happened in houston by the way cover last week off that they played a terrible jacksonville team you're playing a vikings team that's getting better they're at home the falcons are a terrible team their efficiency numbers are not good what do they do well matt nothing well nothing well um i think the vikings win this game and they win it by touchdown i am with you i like this one um i think that uh yes minnesota is flying a bit under the radar. They've lost to some very good teams there. Look, I think Minnesota is going to end up eight and eight. You know, you teams that are worse than them and lose to teams that are better than them and they are much better than atlanta um cousins look good

last week seattle 32nd ranked past defense now he gets the 31st um this one felt like a little too easy for me and i feel like that hook is there to just kind of scare us off but i'm with you let's do this i don't see the hook it wasn't see this was at four right so that's why the hook is not so bad for me because we got a half point um in I don't see the hook. It wasn't, see, this was at four, right? So that's why the hook is not so bad for me because we got a half point in this. And I know the hook is there, but I just, I do not trust Atlanta. I mean, I'm not betting on bad teams anymore.

And they're the 28th ranked defense, the 22nd ranked offense. And the Vikings are better than them at everything. Special teams, offense, defense. Okay, let's put them in. One down and maybe another one with a maybe with Detroit. I just have a feeling we're going to talk ourselves out of that one. Next one, he used to talk about interim coaches.

Romeo Cornell's Texans are three-point dogs at Tennessee. What do you make of this one? So I lean Tennessee here. It's not really anything to do of the win against Buffalo. But I think that they've had some clunkers that came out and played their game against Buffalo. And I think that they're better than the Texans right now. But I will say, again, Houston is 12th in DVOA, Tennessee's 10th.

Like the records are not as indicative of their talent on each team and the way they played so far. I would lean toward Tennessee, but I don't really like a play in this game. I would not put this, I don't feel comfortable putting this in our five. It's funny, Jeff. So when you texted these lines to our group text when they came out, I realized that because of all the confusion with Tennessee, that this was not even a game I knew was happening this week. Just because like in all my prep, you know, like their lines are off the board, whatever. And I looked at all the lines and I looked at this one and I said, what am I missing here? Tennessee, clearly one of the best teams in the league, clearly playing with a little bit of a chip on their shoulder.

I don't agree with their chip on their shoulder, by the way, but they're pissed off. Houston, like, what are we giving them credit for, for barely beating Jacksonville last week with a miracle fourth down that deshaun watson pulled out of his ass like we know the biggest advantage in this game is the coaching advantage mike for able say what you will about that team he knows how to get those guys up for games and we know what romeo cornell is like seems like a lovely human being but this is a chance to to sell against romeo cornell at a peak value like this one just jumps right off the page to me and i almost feel like not preparing it like made it more obvious like this is just an easy one i feel like you know a couple things to consider about about houston real quick before we if you want to make your case for tennessee after this though

another one in four but they've also played the number one ranked DVOA team, the number five, the number nine. I mean, like they've had a really tough schedule so far. Sure. And, you know, they've lost obviously games that they haven't been close in. So I'm not sure that schedule matters very much. And look, there's a lot of money in Tennessee right now, which again, I'm not so much worried this year on reverse line movement. I just don't think it's indicative of what's actually happening. But the, the, so you're telling me on a neutral field,

this is like pick them game. Like. No, it's, it's crazy. And I agree with you on the, on the, you know, the Houston's obviously played some really good teams, but that kind of makes their DVO way a little bit higher. Doesn't it because of the, you know, it's weighted to who you play and to the better teams. Yeah, I just worry about... Tennessee, I would... Wouldn't you say the Tennessee is in the top, what, six, seven teams in the league?

Yeah. And Houston's in the bottom 10? Like, this just feels... Like, if you had told me this was six, I would probably still lean Tennessee. Yeah. Let's put in the maybes again i i understand what you're getting at um it's not a bad pick though i mean they're clearly the better team i'm definitely putting this down as a maybe and romeo cornell man this is a rare chance uh it is a rare chance okay oh boy here we go we've got we've got two maybes uh oh here it comes here comes jeff the worst game of the week that i'm going to try to convince you It is a rare chance. Okay. Oh, boy. Here we go. We've got two maybes. Uh-oh.

Here it comes. Here it comes, Jeff. The worst game of the week that I'm going to try to convince you that we should probably play. Although, this might get bumped for one of the other ones. The Washington football team. My Washington football team plus two and a half. Your former team, the New York Giants. Just roll your eyes and I can make my case um who started for washington unclear i think kyle allen probably like it matters um all right make your pitch for the

washington football team go ahead yeah so he he did participate fully in today's practice. So talk about weird stats. So the Giants are terrible at home. In the last two years against the spread, they're 2-8. And on the road, they're 8-3 against the spread. Like, that is so weird. And since MetLife opened, road teams, 48-32-2 against the spread at MetLife. I think that the Giants had one of these games last week where they went for it. They're playing Dallas.

They got that sliver of Dak going down. They had the lead late. Dalton comes in. It was a kitchen sink game that they lost, and they're better on the road historically. They come home. They're playing a team in Washington that like Washington, they've played good teams. I know that they suck, but they've Arizona's whatever, but they, they, you know, they played

Cleveland, Baltimore and the Rams after that, all those teams, uh, you know, four and one are better. Um, I, I think they're a clear, a clear, better team. I think they probably win this game outright and they uh you know they're not gonna get this is a good a good get right spot for a defense that's given 30 plus up for four straight weeks yeah um it's good it is good get right spot because daniel jones just refuses to to not turn the ball over and we know washington's pass rush is really elite and the giants defensive obviously the offensive line is really bad. So if you're looking for matchups, right,

Washington's defensive line against the Giants' offensive line is where you're going to make a lot of hay. You can force Daniel Jones into a lot of issues. Also, look at the coaching matchup. Ron Rivera, I get Ron Rivera versus Joe Judge and Jason Garrett. I'll take Ron Rivera. And you're right about all these numbers. It's pretty incredible. As you were talking there. And you're right about all these numbers. It's pretty incredible.

As you were talking there, I looked up some more of these numbers. Giants are 3-14-1 against a number in MetLife since 2018. They're only 4-14 straight up at home in that time period as well. Fun fact, by the way, I played the last game,

the last Giants home game as a Panther in the Meadowlands. We beat the Giants 41 to 9. I played the first game the next year in MetLife.

As a Giant? No, as a Panther. So I was the weight team in both the games. I kind of like the Washington football team here, man. I think this is a good bet.

I think it is too. I hate that it's, you know, I like this a lot at three and a half, at two and a half. Yeah, the number's not as good, but I think it is too i hate that it's it you know i like this a lot at three and a half at two and a half yeah the number is not as good but i think it's outright win though yeah i like this i played this at the money line uh a few days i think it's important to note this is something that i think that i will cover and i do a lot of times too like there is a distinct advantage for washington's defensive line over the giants offensive line. It's a huge mismatch.

And when I see that, I typically like to take those teams. They're going to make things really hard for Daniel Jones. And they just played a really bad Cowboys defense and scored a couple points. They also used all their ammunition on fake plays and field goals. I just don't think they can do that again. So I kind of like Washington. We'll put it in a maybe. That might be one of our Washington. I like Washington. We'll put it in a maybe. That might be one of our plays.

Yeah, okay. So Washington football team, maybe. All right. We've got a bunch of maybes. That's a good thing. I have a feeling this one's going to be a hard yes. Cleveland at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh just laying the three.

What do you think? Give me the Pittsburgh Steelers laying the three. This is a no-brainer to me. It's a no-brainer to me. I don't understand why we're betting on the Browns here. Yes, yes, they beat the Colts last week. But we have been down the Colts all season long. This is not like a new thing to us that the Colts, this is an anti-Colts

podcast so far this year. We have not been on the Colts as big. We are at Phillip Rivers' noodle arm. The Steelers, a couple of these are, Baker Mayfield has some bummed up ribs, right? He didn't practice much today, I believe, and he might not play very well this weekend with the banged up ribs.

Yes, their offensive line's playing well, but the Steelers' defensive line can rush the passer. Look back to last week really quick. The Browns moved the ball on offense because of ridiculous catches by landry and by odell beckham right it wasn't like a methodical like just grind out game against the colts it was throw the ball up in the air and hope my wide receivers make a couple great plays against the steelers defense who yes took a step back last week against philly it doesn't help when

you get gas for a 75 yard touchdown run 39. I'm still shocked that happened. But the Steelers are going to just sit back and say, hey, man, we're not going to let you beat us deep. We're not going to let you beat us deep. Something to look out for, too, Matt. This is a thing I'm going to watch. There's a prop bet for this. The Steelers' offensive line is going to try to kill Myles Garrett.

And I am all here for that happening this weekend. And there's going to be no prop on how many cheap shots that they take on Myles Garrett, but I'm excited to watch it happen. Pittsburgh, by the way, 7th on DVOA on defense, 13th on offense. Cleveland is, look, they're 4-1, but they're 17th in DVOA. They're behind Dallas right now,

and Carolina, and Miami. They've won games, yes, but in this game, I get three points. It's open higher than this, open at like four. Give me the Steelers. I'm with you. You mentioned the Browns are playing well up front. Wyatt Teller banged up one of their best guys up front.

Mike Tomlin has never lost to the Browns in Pittsburgh. 13 games. He's not going to drop this one either. I thought we were going to get this at three and a half. This was the first thing I looked at when I looked at the Lions. Pittsburgh, very good this year.

Three and one against the spread. Everybody loves this Cleveland story. I love it too, but this isn't going to be a good week for them, especially with Baker Mayfield potentially bagged up. Love this one. Love it, love it, love it, love it.

It's in, it's in. Lock it in. Love that. Okay, let's go to... Next up is Baltimore. Seven and a half point road favorites at Philly. What do you think? Just gross.

Nothing about this game excites me. Disgusting. Yeah, I guess they want you to take Philly here. You know, they threw the hook on. I mean, it's open. It's open. It opened much, much, much heavier than this, right? Opened at nine.

Oh, no, opened at seven. Yeah, so people are on the Ravens. I just, the Eagles are still not a good football team. And I just, but Baltimore with Lamar Jackson right now, he's not moving as well. He's got that little knee a little need and running for a lot of yards last week um you kind of played a sloppy game against the bangles even though that you know they beat the show joe burrow which you're not going to do to carson wentz carson wants to know what's coming when the when the you know when you're pressuring them um there's so much money on on on balt I just, this is not a game I feel comfortable with a play either way, really.

Yeah. This is a pass for me. I feel like the thing about Carson Wentz, just saying, you know, this is, this is not spectacular analysis by any means, but it feels like he's one of those guys who like he shows up depending on the degree of difficulty. Like I feel like this is a game where he's going to make some insane plays and everyone's going to be like, Carson Wentz is back, and they're still going to lose.

But because the Ravens like to embarrass people. So I don't know. I could make the case for either side. It's a pass. As Nick brings up, the Ravens are 12-4 against the spread their last 16 games overall. As a favorite, they're 9-4 against the spread their last 13 games. So last 13 times have been favorites.

So, something to think about. I just feel like we have better plays on the board than this one. Yeah, I do too. Good stat though, Nick. Next one, let's go. Oh, man. Oh, we've got one more before my favorite game of the week. Cincinnati at Indianapolis.

7.5 is Indy's favorite by seven and a half. There's nothing about this game that sounds exciting to bet on. I wish I could tell you more, but I looked at this and I was like, I'm not touching this game. I want to hear you. Let's skip this game.

I want to hear that your Tampa Bay and Green Bay, it's a pick-em right now. I want to hear your take on this one first. I'll let you go first. I'm excited to hear this. You want to hear my take? I don to hear your take on this one first. I'll let you go first. I'm excited to hear this. You want to hear my take? I don't have a feel on this game. So I'm going to hear.

Look, I have, Matt, two weeks in a row, I have said your best play we're not playing, right? Two weeks in a row, you've won both those bets. So this is your best play of the week that we're playing this game. No, no. So I think my best play of the week is one of the three from before.

I think this is just the most fun game of the week. It's Green Bay at Tampa. It opened at three. So what happened here was this. I mean, you can take this if you want, Jeff. You're getting the value in Tampa here, right, as a pick-em, instead of getting it at minus three or minus two and a half. Dude, I don't really, from a gambling angle, I have no feel for this game.

I don't know. I don't know because I think that with Tampa Bay, yes, offensively they played poor. But defensively they played fine against Chicago. They have extra rest. We know that because they played Thursday night. Now the Packers are off extra rest too because they're off a bye. But I just think these teams are two good teams.

And I just, when we're doing this activity, there are other games that I just like better than this game. I know this game's fun. It's going to be great. I mean, the over feels like a play here, but I don't have a great feel for this side. Yeah. I think I would probably lean Green Bay.

Yeah, I would probably lean that too. But I wouldn't want to count Tom Brady out after he feels like he played like shit. Yeah, that's a big thing. Two things I think that are kind of underrated here. The Vita Vea injury I think is one of those injuries that you don't notice. You don't think about and then you watch them and you're like, why can't they stop the run anymore? Like that prolific run defense last season, Tampa, for all their messiness, they're still number two in overall DVOA, which I found shocking when I was doing my prep this week. I actually just had to confirm that that's actually right.

And yeah, I mean, they've been solid despite what your sort of eyes tell you. But I think that we're missing something with this Devontae Adams return. He practiced fully on Monday. He looks like he's on track to play this week. When that guy's in, that offense is totally different. And I understand they weirdly have had a lot of success without him. I think they're undefeated without him in the last two seasons, but he just opens things up. Like you can't keep throwing it to Bob Tanya in the red zone. Like he's going to open it up for you.

I think green Bay is good. I think I'm, I, I like this, you know, I like green Bay. I'll probably bet this, but I don't know if I'd put this in the contest.

Yeah, this is the one of those where, like, again, I think there's just better lines out there. I think it's going to be a great game. But I have, you know, this is, when there's national TV games, everyone wants to bet them, right? You want to bet them because they're fun. They have some money.

I have no, I have no feel for this game. For gambling. Another great stat from our our producer nick uh rogers most profitable qb in the nfl since he became the starter with an extra week of rest in the regular season eight two and one against spread very good yeah uh okay let's move on to the next game which is nfc west game the rams three-point road favorites at the just woeful 49ers. Oh, boy. This is, again, we're not betting on bad football teams.

We're fading all the bad teams. I love the Rams minus three here. I do not know how you can make a case for any other play here than this. I know. I know. I know. You don't like it. It's a road favorite.

You don't like it. But the Rams are playing really good football right now. They're fourth in total DVOA. I know, I know, I know. It's a road favorite. You don't like it. But the Rams are playing really good football right now. They're fourth in total DVOA. They're fourth on offense, eighth on defense. And the Niners, by the way, 19th. Not a good football team right now. They're not a good football team.

Jimmy Garoppolo is beat up. He's banged up. He's ailing. Whatever he is, is not good right now. The Niners' offensive line has not played very well. They're hurt on defense. They're hurt at corner. They're hurt on defensive line.

The Rams are healthy. The Rams are playing good football. It's a division game. They're going to be fired up for this game. There's no fans in San Francisco as well. The Niners, by the way, the Niners, by the way, Matt, they're 2-3. They've won two games in MetLife Stadium. They've won zero games at home.

Zero games at home. They have a minus four turnover margin at home. They've only scored 18 points per game at home as well in the three home games. I think the Rams are just a much better team. When they come in, they're going to kick their ass. Well, if you recall last week, that's what I was saying about the Miami Dolphins, who I took as a money line bet against San Francisco and that one cashed. Look, I'll go with you on this, but I just got to say,

this is all of the red flags in the world, okay? It's San Francisco coming off getting embarrassed on a game that it feels like everyone saw. Like everyone saw them get their asses kicked last week. It's a road favorite getting 75% of the money, 71% of the money 71 percent of the money now prime time division game san francisco everybody's crapping on them this is one of those games that every year screws you um yeah but but what but like okay let's i get like you're right

let's say i'm just saying this is one of those that could bite us. Let's remove the gambling trends, right? Because again, I don't think trends are working this year. They're not working, right? We haven't followed trends and we have. It's led us down the wrong path, right? In all different years, you'd say Niners minus three, hammer it, be done with it. But like from a football perspective, Matt, where are the Niners better than the Rams? Nowhere. Nowhere.

Nowhere. So you're basically going to say that in a primetime game, the Rams who know they have to beat the Niners, who want to beat the Niners, who are not playing well, the Niners are, the Rams are just going to go up and lay an egg? I just don't, I guess

it's always possible, right? The Niners right now are out Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, Ziggy Onsa, Solomon Thomas, Richard Sherman, Emmanuel Mosley, Dante Johnson. And by the way, you know, Kittle is back now, but he's, you know, he was hurt. Jimmy Garoppolo is back, but hobbled a little bit and got benched last week. And I just, I just, I, I know it's, I know it's a non-traditional bet and I, I just, I love the Rams this week, man.

It is a traditional bet. It's a public bet, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's a wrong bet. My, my radar's going off a little bit, but you're a thousand percent right. And this has been a wonky year so i think that it could be almost like an overcorrection for san francisco here because if you'd if if san francisco didn't make the super bowl last year this would be what like seven points like i feel like this is just a last gasp of respect for san francisco um so i'd put this in the maybe pile for sure okay we're gonna put a to put a maybe pile. I mean, I love it, but we can keep it in the maybe pile.

It's fine. Yep. Okay. Well, it's your podcast. I have a feeling we'll go with it. But we can always take one of mine that I get right that we always pass on. But that's fine too. We haven't had any of those yet.

We haven't had any of those yet. We have one every week. No, we haven't had one this week yet. There's no game that that like yeah you've been like you have to play this and i throw it out on friday i always start on a friday by the way it's never today yeah that's right we'll get there um and i always just read the text i'm like okay yep that's fine we'll take your crappy bet that'll lose um okay so next we've got a game that we're i guarantee not going to talk about which is the jets plus eight and a half at the dolphins.

If you have a feel for this, by all means, I mean, you bet the dolphins, but I'm not, I'm not betting the dolphins. So we can move on. I'm taking them in survivor this week.

And I just know they're going to kill me, but I'm going to do it. A couple of things about the dolphins, by the way, is they get both their cornerbacks back this week, Howard and Jones, and no one has scored a touchdown. Either one of those guys so far this season.

I just think that the Dolphins can pressure Flacco a bunch this week. Makai Becton, Jets left tackle, is not playing this week as well. I mean, it's a lot of points for the Dolphins. I think we have other better bets on the table, but I don't think it's a bad bet to take the Dolphins. I don't want to do it. It's a lot of points in the NFL. You know who's not going to score the first touchdown on those corners?

Joe Flacco and Jamison Crowder. That's not going to be the winning combination. Interesting. Interesting. But I don't even want to watch that game, so that's a pass. Talk about a game I might not want to watch. Denver plus 10 at New England. Yeah, we don't know who's playing quarterback for any of these teams.

Melvin Gordon, who knows if he's playing. I just shoot this freaking game into the moon. We're skipping this game. Sorry, Patriots and Broncos fans. We're not even talking about it. Fine. Great. Next up, we've got the two monday night games uh arizona is laying two points

at dallas and andy dalton curious line um yeah um yeah i don't i don't again i just don't feel good about any play here if you want to convince me either way you can arizona's not been as good i think as we thought they'd be this year. We thought they'd be the breakout team. They just haven't been as good as we thought they'd be. Kyler Murray struggled a little bit defensively and it's just kind of been blah this year. But the Cowboys defensively are awful. Arizona's

got to have a get-right week. Until further notice, you just bet they're over in all these games with the Cowboys. I don't have a great feel for either side. I think Arizona is the right play here, but I don't really want to make it um but i think over if you're if you're gonna gamble in this game you bet the over i i i thought i was gonna have a stronger feel for this i don't um i think the you know the pros are on dallas uh there's a big split uh majority of the bets on arizona majority

of the money is on dallas um dallas hasn't covered a single spread this year now they're a home dog so that's usually the time where uh i think according to action network 71 of the time the team hasn't covered by now in the season they do in this game um but like you know i think that this is sort of like a pretty respectful andy dalton line like dac prescott is the nfl's leading passer by a mile and dallas is still down four offensive linemen their defense is a mess like i don't even i mean my question to you honestly is like doesn't it take considering dalton hasn't gotten any reps yet until this week, like, isn't it going to take him a few weeks to get a feel for this?

Well, I don't think it'll take him a few weeks to get a feel for it. I just think that their defense is really bad. I mean, not defense. Their offensive line is really bad. And so, like, I just, like, I, their offensive line is so bad. Dalton's just going to get killed. Like, he can't run away from anyone. Their offensive line is so bad.

It doesn't, it doesn't. I just, I think Arizona's a play get killed. He can't run away from anyone. Their offense line is so bad. It doesn't... I think Arizona is a play, but I just don't feel good doing it. Yeah, I'm with you. I'm glad we see this one. Especially because the next game... Okay, let's talk about it. You're going to talk me out of my pick.

I know it, but I'm going to make it anyways. I don't know if I am. Chiefs are three and a half point favorites at buffalo uh in this other monday night game what do you think all right the play is the super bowl champions can't say chiefs this is before the buffalo titans game many reasons why i think i think that can city would win this game. But I don't like the number three and a half. Look, it's interesting about the Chiefs. So all week, boo-hoo, they lost 40-32.

Oh, my God, their offense. They can't block. They can't do this and that. Their offense is second in DVOA. First in passing offense. First in passing offense. Guess whose defense, Matt, is not good this year? The Bills. The Bills defense. Terrible this year. The Bills defense is 27th in the National Football League. They are getting

gashed this year. This feels like a get-right game for the Chiefs against the Raiders. We saw their defensively, just to say, you know, they said, hey, Carr, beat us deep. Carr beat them deep. He beat them deep all day. We saw the Titans just sit back in coverage and say, Josh Allen, you're not going to beat us deep. You're not going to beat us deep. We're going to force you into making mistakes. The Chiefs defense is able to force teams into making a lot of mistakes in the back end of their secondary.

I think offensively, they're going to calm things down, not going to take as many shots down the field, just kind of get back to their West Coast offense, hit some screens here and there. I don't use a lot in this game. It's a huge public play. They're a road favorite. Like, I don't know if it's a good bet per se.

And three and a half is not a great number. But I just think they're better. Do you know the Bills, by the way, dropped to like 14th in total DVOA after that game? Against the Titans? Well, it's kind of... I think Buffalo, I mean, it's kind of, I think Buffalo, I mean, it's a very,

that was a very strange game. And Buffalo, like the one thing we know about them year to year is their defense is always good. But like, that's just not true of anyone this year. No one has a good defense at the moment. What's funny is, you know,

Buffalo and Las Vegas are like the same exact team, which is a little bit strange that they'd be playing them back to back. Like talk about similarities, Vegas and Buffalo six and seventh in offensive DVO way. They play the same way. It's those, it's those little guys that just burn you deep. I mean, Nelson Aguilar came out of witness protection to burn the Chiefs last week. And Henry Ruggs, same thing.

It's like, you know, Josh Allen can absolutely do that. Hopefully John Brown is back with Steph Diggs. And, you know, they have a very good vertical passing game. And they both have crappy defenses. Well, the Chiefs defense is not crappy. They just played poorly. No played no no buffalo's is oh okay yeah i'm saying oh you mean buffalo in vegas yes okay yes yeah they both have bad defenses um i i look i had a feeling you were gonna you were gonna want to lean kansas city here

i understand it's a get right spot but it also could be a get-right spot for the bills too but but okay but can i make the argument that that this is maybe who they are like they're kind of in between you know look they played the rams right they beat the rams by three that's a good team right they played a good team in the rams they played tennessee they kicked tennessee kicked their ass tennessee should have no business kicking their ass right i mean they came off with two weeks of basically no practice um yeah buffalo is what being beaten who else they beat uh the jets right um i'm saying who they're even beating i didn't pull up their schedule anymore look at them up um you know i just i i don't the the problem with putting the chiefs in here is we're going to have, like, we're going to have Sunday Night Football, road favorite, Monday Night Football, road favorite. Like, I just don't know if that's good.

And with the hook. I have a feeling Buffalo's going to show up. I feel much better at the Rams, by the way. If we're going to choose one favorite on one of these games, like, the Rams, to like – and I hate waiting for Monday night to like have my Super Contest picks resolved. I'd rather like to get up with Sunday. So if we're going to choose between these two road favorites, I feel much better with the Rams because the Niners are a bad team. Buffalo, to your point. Buffalo can play.

The Niners are not very good i'm i'm in on that bargain let's put the rams in and take the chiefs out yeah um okay so it seems like we have three definites if we include that rams the rams are minus three nsf we like that we love pitt love Pittsburgh laying the three against Cleveland at home. And we love the Vikings laying the three and a half against Atlanta at home. I see three games in our maybes. The Detroit Lions, road faves at Jacksonville. Tennessee, three-point home faves against Houston.

And the football team plus two and a half at the Giants. Oh, God. I'm going to say it. I'm not going to like it. I like the football team. I think I like them too. The number's bad, but I think they went out right. It doesn't matter.

Can you guys record me doing this, talking about this game? Because this is like, I just. Can you guys record me doing this, talking about this game? Because this is like, I just... For those of you who are not seeing our video products, which you can find on Jeff Schwartz's Twitter, I'll do my best to retweet those at MM410. We've got Jeff head in his hands, sulking, maybe perspiringiring from the depths of the abyss well i think it's more from the abyss of taking duane or uh not duane ask it's taking kyle allen in uh it's the right play though isn't it yeah it is i mean i i will say i think the detroit the case for detroit and tennessee are both very strong and i'd feel fine about taking either of them.

Yeah, but I think we get a couple things that I really like with this game. One, we get, again, a coaching mismatch, right? I get Ron Rivera, Scott Turner against Joe Judge, Jason Garrett, right? I get a really, really good Washington defensive line. It's a really bad Giants offensive line. Kyle, I would move the ball okay before we got hurt in that game if you if you recall right um i get collins not not a good player i mean this scream this game she was like under game whatsoever but do i just put the giants to like have sustained drives in this game like going down

the field making plays i you know i can make a case in the other games you know like okay deshaun watson shows up and plays really well and you know and they cover the three points um i just don't i don't i think we're betting again i know we're betting on a bad football team we're kind of breaking our rule here which is not great um but washington does something really well the giants really do it poorly which is which is offensive line cognitive dissonance with Washington's defense. They've never given up four straight 30. It might be, it might not be never, but it's certainly in like a long,

long time that they haven't given up 30 points in four straight weeks. They still have the fourth ranked DVOA defense. So clearly like they're going to regress back to the more of the version that we saw in week one. Kyle Allen did look fine look fine i as you talk about deshaun watson potentially backdooring us here the tennessee thing off of a big win in the short week and just a lot of chaos like maybe that could bite us um i'd feel fine about washington and detroit and just going against in my opinion two of the worst three teams in the league,

Jacksonville and the Giants. Yeah, I'm thinking about Jacksonville. I mean, you're right, right? We looked at that first game and it was like, oh yeah, they're going to be good. And since then, they've not been very good, right? I mean, they've lost four. Yeah, they suck.

I think we both bet them to be the worst team in the league this year, I think. I think we did. I think pretty sure we did too. I'm thinking of here where's jacksonville at against the spread either they're one of four two and three against the spread yeah they i mean they only score 21 points a game yeah i the the off the buy thing with patricia two and oh and and 70 of the time the lines will be healthy right they gall day and staff for another week um yeah i think i think detroit is probably the right play

over i you know i think about tennessee i i think i think i'd rather feel i feel good with detroit here i mean i mean which one i mean which one so this is, I want to make sure I don't exclude one of your picks. Like this is. Yeah. I would like any of those three. Although Pittsburgh was my favorite. Yeah, Pittsburgh is 100% my favorite. Let's do Detroit. I'd rather go against Minshew than Watson. I'm with you here.

Okay. So I don't have a lot of favorites this week. So we have a lot of road favorites. Yikes. Let's start with the home favorite. Minnesota minus three at home against Atlanta. Washington plus two and a half at the Giants. Pittsburgh minus three at home, by the way, against, that's at home, right?

I believe it's at home against Cleveland. The Rams minus three at the Niners, the Sunday football, and Detroit minus three at Jacksonville. I want to throw one more thing in here. I love two other bets this week. I don't want to do this very often, but two prop-ish bets. I love the Chiefs' team total over.

I think it's around 30 and a half. They're going to score a shit ton of points. Just letting you know. They're going to score a lot of points. Take that over. And I like Baker Mayfield under, by the way. The Browns' offense is not built with his arm. Last week was a season-high 247 yards.

He had most of those in the first half. I think Pittsburgh just suffocates that team. So I don't know what that number is going to be set at, but I would take the under if you could. And just for fun, Packers or Bucs, who do you like? I'm a Tom Brady guy, man. It's hard for me to bet against them. I'd go Brady off an embarrassing game.

Yeah. Yeah, that's a really good call. I'm going to take Rodgers off the bye. I think that's going to be a fun one to watch. It's going to be a great game to watch. So I think we have some good games this week. Obviously, two Monday night football games, 5 p.m.

Eastern. I get to like watch Chiefs play and not be tired afterwards on Monday night football. So, all right, everyone, 12, 12 and one.

Going to have a winning week this week. Get back on the right side of everything. Thank you guys for joining us. Have a great weekend. Talk to you guys on Tuesday. Matt, you're back Tuesday. So I'm looking forward to having you break down the week with me on Tuesday.

Let's do it, man. Look forward to it.