Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - West Divisions Player Props and Team Totals

Episode Date: August 25, 2023

Geoff is back with Matt for the final installment of their NFL futures series. This week the boys are taking a deep dive into every team in the the NFC and AFC West.Be sure to rate, comment, and follow the pod if you enjoyed, and check out @geoffschwartz on Twitter and Geoff Schwartz on Youtube for live video shows, plus a recorded video version of this episode.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday august 24th i'm jeff schwartz this is jeff schwartz of smart and you were live on twitter on youtube and on your favorite podcast platform alongside matt ford as usual we are doing our division previews our last one before we get to nfl season today is afc west and nfc west day and as we as usual we go through all the teams. We take our favorite wagers. We put them in a document. We put them on the internet. We let you guys decide if the wagers are good.

But we are going to wager on all these. We do it ourselves. We spend $1,000 per division, a little bit left over to spend as we sprinkle on through these last two divisions, Matt. It's our favorite activity we do each season. but also get us ready for the year, the last week of the preseason. It's happening right now. College football, by the way, this weekend.

Matt, at the end of last episode, I told you that Utah-Florida line was going to move. It was Florida plus seven and a half. It's now Florida plus five. Your boy knows. Pay attention to Pac-12. All right. I know very well. I looked it up, by the way.

63% gets a spread in the Pac-12 the last three full seasons. It's what I do well. But right now, we're doing pro football, and we're going to start with this, Matt. Your commanders ended the Ravens' 24-game win streak in the preseason. But more than anything else, the country was wrapped up in a preseason football game in week two like it was a regular season football game i've seen nothing like it dude me too it seems like the public opinion of sam howell completely shifted after that game too um yeah it was great it was like i stood every people before

i i went to high school baltimore so like all my friends are from high school or from baltimore they're all ravens fans i was a commanders fan obviously and like all of them were like giving me shit saying like oh it's the best win you've ever had it's like a you're right but b like it does seem like the ravens fans were a little bit crabby that their stupid streak ended fair enough but also like it did feel like you know it just felt like watching a normal football team. Like the owner did the weird, stupid handshake that went viral, and then the team posted it. They made fun of it. And it's like, that's what you're supposed to do.

It was just a stupid thing. And I don't know. It was nice. It was like observing a normal football team playing a preseason game. That's it. Can we talk for a second about Joshris's polo he chose to wear because that was that was not something that someone who's worth like six billion dollars should be what was that matt was that a like in the back of his closet like i gotta find something burgundy

to wear puts it on was he driving into the stadium and stopped at a thrift store and put that on like why did he just not wear a team issue polo it was very odd to see him in that kind of that weathered burgundy polo pocket in the front too it was it was wild he could wear a shirt that it directly insults my family i would not care this man is is a blessing he is sent from the heavens to rescue us from dan snyder like shake do the stupid handshakes all you want. Oh, the stupid handshake was incredibly funny. For those who missed it, live under a rock. If you listen to this podcast, I'm sure you've seen it by now.

It was Joe Buck and Troy Aikman doing the game at ESPN. That's why I think, too, it felt bigger because it was the first neutral broadcast we've seen because the NFL Network, when they air the games, they air most often they air just a home broadcast right because in the preseason both both cities have their own broadcast right typically it's it's uh you know nfl college broadcasters getting work in before their season starts right and they have an analyst who often works and does the exact same thing they

pair them together get some work in and typically when you're watching a game nfl network you're watching the home feed i watched you, chiefs Cardinals this weekend or last week was the Cardinals home feed, right? This was national, right? This was national ESPN. So they're in the booth and the Joe Buck is just talking with his hands and he puts his hand out. Looks like he's going to shake. Now he wasn't going to shock, shake Josh Harris's hand. But, but Josh went in for the handshake. And the best was Troy Aikman seeing it, by the way, and trying not to laugh. That was awesome.

But the last question I have on this, Matt, and I know we're sticking to this a little bit too long probably, but did they not shake before the interview? Did he just hop on television and then they shook? Was he looking for another handshake i just love the awkwardness of some of these billionaires it just was so awkward it was it was perfect he but he shouldn't be like owners shouldn't be on tv like they just shouldn't like they're not tv personalities and i think the one he was buck Buck seemed, I could see if I were Josh Harris, nervous.

This is like a big, that's a big stage for him, right? Oh, yeah. It did seem like Buck was maybe like winding down. I think he thought the interview is about to end. He's going in for the shake now because we're on camera because he was kind of like landing the plane of his point, right? Like it was something like, well, well you know everybody's really excited that you're here and then he like started a new point and his hand was out and harris was like this this is it i'm going in he's we're buddies now look man if every time i had a dumb dap up was on tv

broadcasted to millions i think i would be uh i'd have a few of those myself if the time you wore 100 shirts for action networks first live stream was ever uh aired you would you feel the same way is that who's in the studio is get gabe right now yeah that was hank is that gabe tell gabe to call me jeff says to call him by the way hank you have one job it's to take it's to take us full in that moment. We're doing this on Twitter for those who are listening on podcasts, and that is an indication that take Matt off the camera when someone's interrupting him and put it onto me. All right, let's get to this, Matt. We'll talk about Chris Jones when we get to the Chiefs.

So for those, again, who don't know what we're doing here, we're going to go through the NFC West first. We're going to go through all four teams. We're going to talk about our favorite prop bets, our favorite win totals, playoffs, no playoffs, kind of everything that's thrown together. This year we've had more bets than usual because we're taking every starting running back

under their rushing total. It's a project we're doing this season. I think it's going to make us a lot of money. And so default, like even if we think Christian McCaffrey of the Niners is going to have more than 850 yards, we're taking the under. We're just defaulting to the under. We are picking some overs, Matt, as you know, but we're defaulting. So we have more wagers than usual.

Our kind of unit has gone down to about $100, $150. Again, there's some leftover money we have going through this. So let's start with the NFC West. Let's start with the Niners, who are in the oddest position of any team that I can ever recall, all right? They have the best left tackle in all of football, all right? They have arguably the best running back in all of football. They have the second-best tight end in all of football.

They have the defensive player of the year and the leader in sacks from last season as their edge rusher. They have an interior rush that people are jealous of because they can rush the passer. They have the number one off-ball linebacker in Fred Warner. They have a secondary like a, like a Hufunga who's in his third year. I believe now fourth year is going to be one of the best safeties in the NFL.

All these great pieces, except quarterback. They're rolling with Brock Purdy, seventh round draft pick from, from, from last year, who again, NFL. All these great pieces, except quarterback. They're rolling with Brock Purdy, seventh-round draft pick from last year, who, again, he played well in the limited time that he was on the field, but it wasn't special to me, right? It wasn't a special play. It was good for seventh-round pick. The offense is very, very quarterback-friendly. He only averaged 152 yards per game. What he didn't do was turn the ball over a bunch, i think they like that about him sam donald's a backup quarterback trey lance

will be shipped out their win total is 10 and a half matt what's your thoughts on the niners man this is the most interesting team and by the way maybe maybe we could spend a second on the trey lance thing before we get into the betting part of this i mean are we at the point where this is now the biggest draft disaster maybe ever i mean this is obviously there have been more trade-ups uh that's that's been a part of you know like carson wentz comes to mind uh as a guy who they traded up for he at least had a run to the mvp and they won the super bowl that year even though he wasn't part of it. But like,

when you think about like the Jamarcus Russell busts, like all of these like big busts, this Trey Lance thing is, is truly one of the oddest sagas ever. And, you know, to find the solution at quarterback by Mr. Irrelevant,

we'll get to him by misallocating all of these assets to get Trey Lance and then punting on him this quickly. It's like, even if you don't like him, like maybe keep them on the team, maybe put them in second on the depth chart for now. It's like, just to just like,

it just feels like they handled this so badly throughout. And it's like all the questions about him remain the same from when he was drafted. Like we didn't know what he was. They went all in, they traded up and now they're just done like it just i i think this is like a one of the worst mismanaged uh quarterback things i've ever seen in my time as an nfl fan so we know they traded up in as a 2021 right for for trey lance

and um we know they trade up to three I think not knowing who they was Mac Jones or Trey Lance they went with Trey Lance who is the more mobile option right he's the more mobile quarterback um and they thought that he would come in right away and play well but he only has about you know 300 throws in college. He didn't play very much in college. So in 2021, I think he got a little bit of playing time as a rookie, right? And he wasn't very good. And then in 2022, remember last season, he was going to be the starter. They were going to give him the opportunity to win that job. And he played in two games before hurting himself in week two, and that was the end of his season.

And so I don't know, Matt, if it's the Niners' fault he got hurt. But they drafted a quarterback on a team that needs to win now that wasn't ready to win now. That's the fault, right? It's the mis-evaluation of Trey Lance. It's thinking to yourselves, Trey Lance is ready to play now when, in fact, he's more of a developmental project. And I know they thought, you know, they play him last season, he's ready for 2023, but they're in win now mode, and Brock Purdy gives him the best opportunity to win now.

And I feel bad for Trey Lance because there's no home for him, Matt. I mean, there's a home as a backup, but he's too high paid as a backup. And for him to be good in the NFL, he needs a full season of reps. That's what he needs, a full season. He has 400 reps total. College of the NFL, he needs a full season of reps. That's what he needs, a full season. He has 400 reps total. College of the NFL, passing the football. It's like 430. It's insane.

That's nothing, right? That's barely three-fourths of a season for Patrick Mahomes. He needs the reps. And the Niners, unfortunately, can't give him those reps because they need to win now because of the roster, as I mentioned. And we're actually seeing, too, the depth chart for the Niners take a little bit of a hit without having those three first-round draft picks, right? You look at the offensive line, some question marks, right?

You look at the back end of the defense. If there's any injuries on defense, there's some concern that the depth is not quite there. Even the wide receivers. Right now, wide receiver, right? It's Brenna Ayuk, Deebo Samuel, Jawan Jennings. The backups are Danny Gray, Chris Conley, Ray-Ray McLeod. Now, they drafted Ronnie Bell out of Michigan in the seventh round. Remember, out of Michigan, yes.

He can fly. He was hurt in Michigan, right? That's why he dropped to the bottom. They're offensive linemen. It's like Trent Williams is incredible. They're hoping that McKivitt's Ed Wright tackle can fill in for McGlinchey, maybe prior plays there. The genius of this offense is that it doesn't really require, at times,

having top-end personnel because Kyle Shanahan is a fantastic play caller. But in those big moments in those big games, do the Niners have enough of depth across their team? Again, their defense, fantastic. We know that. But do they have that depth? big moments in those big games do the niners have enough of depth across their team again their defense fantastic we know that um but do they have that depth they also by the way they've had a defensive play caller drain right robert sala left amico ryan's left um i believe they brought in vance steve wilkes is that yeah steve wilkes um and And, like, it just – it's a lot of moving parts, the defense coordinator position now for so many years.

So, look, to me this year, look, Christian McCaffrey under because that's what we always do. We're taking that. Their win total is a 10.5. I don't feel great about either way, buddy. I think you're on the under because we chatted about this in another episode. But that doesn't – it doesn. But their system is so good that they get the most out of their team. But if they end up having injuries, it's really going to hamper their team in a big way.

And injuries are just the truth with the 49ers. It's just a thing that happens every single year. Yeah. And it's like people you know, people talk about injury regression and all that stuff and it's bound to break your way at some point. Well, the last since Shanahan's been there,

they've been a top 10 most injured team every single year. You mentioned a few key players like George Kittle. He's 29. He's not getting any younger. He gets injured all the time. Isn't he hurt right now? I don't. I think he's he's 29 he's not getting any younger he gets injured all the time and isn't he hurt right now i don't i think right now wouldn't shock me um one of my favorite players doesn't seem to

ever get lucky on the health side trent williams is a fan of washington always seem to be kind of playing through something he's 35 like there's a lot of these really key players and you mentioned the lack of depth around the team uh the thing that i think blows me away about the niners is everyone's just sort of like quarterback doesn't matter for them now i understand why we think that but it does matter and like brock purdy for you know all the things that we can say about him he he carried them at the end of last season right like they they seemed kind of unbeatable and then he went out and obviously they didn't even have a backup like and they were toast against the eagles but like let's just take kyle shanahan who is put in this class of coaches that

i don't think anybody else in the NFL currently is. He is considered a full miracle worker. We have complete trust in him for reasons that I'm not sure are entirely deserved. I'll get to that. What if Mr. Irrelevant coming off of a UCL repair actually isn't healthy or isn't good, and then they have to go to Sam Darnold? That's not a possibility. That's what's happening right now. actually isn't healthy or isn't good and then they have to go to sam darnold like that is that's not a possibility that's what's happening right now like pretty still coming back and you

know we mentioned you talked about a line that moved the steelers line moved in week one it's now at two and a half the niners are still road favorites please bet that if you're listening i got plus three i got plus three i just went to vegas and bet that the other're listening. I got plus three. I got plus three. Me too. I just went to Vegas and bet that. The other thing I bet in Vegas, the way to zag on this is not to take the 49ers under. The way to zag on this is 49ers to miss the playoffs because that's plus 310. So if they were to truly bottom out,

they're projected to win 11 games. The Chiefs are projected to win 11 and a half games and nothing changed for them. 49ers have a massive quarterback problem christian mccaffrey's dealt with plenty of injuries himself debo samuels hurt all last year they don't have any depth behind the receiver the defense was number one in the league last year that never stays right you're never the top defense year after year so you're gonna have to assume that everything kind of comes down a little and in the past last point here kyle shanahan's kind of yo yo'd so i'll go back to even when he was an offensive coordinator like one year he'd be a

top 10 there'd be a top 10 offense the next year like for example 2012 the rg3 year they were top 10 offense next year was Washington was 31st. 2016, the Super Bowl year with Atlanta, he had the fifth best offense. Then he moved to San Francisco. He was 22nd. Okay, fair enough. 2019 with San Francisco, second best offense. Next year, 21st.

Like, tends to go a little bit up and down. And as good as he is as a play caller, he doesn't seem to ride those waves super well so i think it's because his quarterbacks his quarterbacks get hurt that's why yeah he can't keep anyone healthy his record by the way his head coach is 52 and 46 um right that's after a 13 year last year yeah and i i do like the no playoffs i mean it's a it's a plus 310 it's a decent wager it's going to be a small sprinkle for us, right? I mean, it's not going to be a big player for us, I don't think. The other things I'm looking at, so Debo Samuel's receiving number is 725.5.

He's only been over that number once in his career. Excuse me, twice in his career. That's when he started, I assume, 2019, he had 800 yards receiving, and he was hurt in 2020. And then last year, he only had 632 in 13 games. He only started 12. He hasn't played a full 17-game season yet. I think that's a decent number to put up there with McCaffrey.

Are you in for that? Sure. Yeah, I definitely am. One other thing I want to ask i think i have the team for trey lance oh okay i think it's miami so miami obviously mike mcdaniel who was who was there when trey lance was drafted um they were a little bit thin obviously behind tua who's had some injury issues as we know in theory it's the same scheme with a little bit of a twist i don't think you would need to get him for that much and i think tua would not be threatened by that right like i think you could

say like yeah we're shipping like a fourth round pick like we don't have a lot you know mike white's already i think mike white's already hurt, right? Like I think it's a good chance for them. I think they would be the team that makes the most sense. Interesting. There was talk about Miami training for Jonathan Taylor, by the way. It seemed like they're fine with it. They're the favorite right now.

Yeah. Yeah. For Taylor. Very, very interesting. I haven't thought about that. Also, I want to point out something about Matt Ford here. Matt is very good at props, by the way. So if Matt says something about props, you should take it.

Last year, we made a lot of money on St. Brown. I'm lucky enough to do a radio show, not a podcast, with a professional gambler. He wagers on stuff, Matt. You know this. I've told you before. But he wagers on stuff, and the you know, that's, I've told you before, but he wagers on stuff and the line moves 10 minutes later. Cause he texts me, he goes, Hey, take the chiefs plus three. You have 10 minutes to do so. And I take it. And then 10 minutes later, it's a

three and a half or four or the other way around, right? It'd be plus two and a half, right? And I, it really moves. He texts the other day, said, Hey guys, take Jahad Dotson over 50 and a half receptions. And I was like, guess what? We already bet that because Matt Ford told us on that show last week to take that wager. So Matt, if he tells you a prop or something, it's a good wager, guys. I throw it out there. All right. You want to get to the Seattle?

Yeah, I'm just going to throw you your props, man. You want to get to the Seattle? Yeah. I'm just going to throw you your promise, man. You're going to Seattle Seahawks. Yeah, let's do that. I want to mention, by the way, Dotson's now up to 52 and a half and McLaurin is going to be a little

banged up in the beginning of the season. I still think that's a night's over. And we might, the reason why it's a 52 and a half, you want to know why he's a 52 and a half? He moved the line. Because they moved the line. All the sharps hit it. I will say like George Pickens is 55 and a half because they moved the line all the sharps hit it I will say like

George Pickens is 55 and a half like Dotson's gonna get a lot more targets in that offense than somebody like Pickens well I also saw I'm trying to see like Ayuk Samuel like those I don't know this this 49ers team just has it's got some stink

on it to me I maybe Debo Samuel under 59 and a half catches like maybe that's it like they use him in a lot of other creative ways um i don't know we can move on to seattle um so seattle their total here let's pull it up um they're eight and a half wow that feels really low the respect if you buy the fading San Francisco, then the rest of this division kind of gets pretty easy to bet. Seattle would seem to be the next logical team. The Rams are plus 1,000 to win this division, which we'll get to the Rams.

But do you think that Seattle plus 200 is maybe the way to play this one? Possibly. We know Pete Carroll wins a lot of football games I'm just gonna have like an anti-Gino take that's probably gonna end up being like a not helpful to win the division yeah um what what this will be on worst takes exposed or whatever go ahead I no no I I just don't think Gino Smith's to have as good of a season. We saw last season he threw for, let me pull it up right here, 4,300 yards, I want to say, which is great for him.

Yeah, and he's never been close to that in his career. But the last five weeks, he only averaged 180 yards per game. Like he had some incredible games where they kind of buoyed um a lot of inconsistent play he had i'm gonna pull up his game logs from last season i mean look at last year uh it's uh mike it's our it's our nanny's talk it is what it is um you know they get to do my my kids start school next week everyone i have to i have to get them i have to get them there um so dr apologist yeah i know um look he threw for 195 197 197 210 212 264 238 215 183 213 like is, is that someone who throws for 4,300 yards,

like a consistent quarterback? No. He had some games where he threw 235, excuse me, 325, 320, 328, 367. But those are like, those are the rare games. It's not something he has done in his career. And I don't think they even want him to do that. I think his numbers are

3800 i think he goes under that number i'm i'm fine with that and i also what's funny about that is i'm not really bothered with the concern about like i think the seahawks are going to win this division i think that there's a good the way to play this maybe to take a slightly juiced nine and a half wins and go over for plus 125 um okay i like that look so we talk you know shanahan gets all this respect since pete carroll has been with the seahawks let's let's make this sound a little bit better since 2012 uh pete carroll has gone worse that has gone under 500 once granted in that time he had russell wilson but like was that everything that we thought that was right like every single season they went 11 13 12 10 10 9 10 11 12 7 that one year when wilson went down in the middle of the

season and then nine last year like this is the better coach this guy is a better coach than kyle shanahan according to his record and his track record of success including a super bowl so i also think seattle i mean it's been talked about and smith and jigba has already got the surgery which is a little bit weird but they had an awesome draft they got a top corner they got a top maybe the top receiver they added to their pass rush they got you know they now have two really solid young running backs. And they have a nice kind of light schedule to start the season when they figure things out. They got the Rams at home.

Detroit might be tough. Carolina and the Giants. And then a week five bye. I don't know. They could end up starting out 4-0. That's not crazy. 3-1. And then the Geno thing.

Obviously, Geno could turn into a pumpkin. But they have a lot of talent on this team uh and i i have no reason to think that when you look at this division someone's got to win it i'm down on the niners i think this is the way i would i would play it on the other end i'm i'm fine with that um i think that's a good a good place to be um there's no unfortunately there's no props for the running backs right now. Because I think I would take Kenneth Walker under, and I actually would take Zach Charbonnet over. I know we're not really playing

that game, but the running back from UCLA, I think, is going to have a lot of yards for them as he becomes a more primary ball carrier for them. But there's just no number up for that. I just can't find a number for that. Otherwise, I'd play it, but there's no books. Again, there's some uncertainty now.

These plays might be up at some point, right, when it becomes more obvious who's going to end up being the bell cow, but I can't find it right now. What do you think of my over 9.5 for them? I like it. I put it down. You're right. The Niners struggle a little bit there. I think it's a good play to make. You're betting on Pete Carroll. You're betting on someone who has won a lot of football games. You're betting on a better

roster. Their roster has improved over the last couple of years. We know what they're going to do. We know what they're about. It's a wager that you feel comfortable taking because you know who they should be. Yeah. How about this one? Obviously, the assumption is that uh smith and jake was going to come in and get a ton of targets and a ton of yards i think that's reasonable but tyler lockett his yardage total is at 875 and a half uh that would be his worst year in six years. In 2017, he had 555 yards. Every other year, he's been over 965. I don't feel like he's 875 and a half,

and Metcalf is at about 900. I feel like Lockett is still the deep target. He's still the one that they're going to go the top with and he's really consistent like he's he hasn't he's played 15 or more games every single year in the league knock wood he keeps that up um he just seems to be he's kind of have you seen the videos of him falling down he never has videos of him where he catches the ball like falls down before contact it's very smart he never gets hit he's very like he just seems to be like the most forgotten man on this team like he's excellent he's consistent every year i think that's maybe maybe an over i don't know if i'd go all in on it but that feels like a way to play that i put it on there we'll get this cop out at the end of the we're not going to have many wagers for the rams and cardinals i think so

this might end up being like kind of the bulk of what our wagers are for this division. I mean, maybe we're going to have a lot, but I don't think we are. Yeah. Are we done with them? I think so. I'd like them to win the division. Do you want to do that too?

That would be plus 200. Yeah, put them – oh, well, we have Seattle over eight and a half, right? So – Over nine and a half. You want to do that too that would be plus 200 yeah i put them oh well we have seattle over eight and a half right so i mean over nine and a half you want to do both i would say we could do i mean maybe the way to do this then is to double dip i think i just think taking the juiced over is a good way to play that okay we could yeah that's fine i mean we're basically saying if seattle if san francisco is not making the playoffs that seattle would win this division so that is a way to get plus odds twice but that's also saying san francisco sucks twice so well i'm fine with

over nine and a half yeah um all right all right let's get to the Rams. Yeah. One of the strangest teams to evaluate, right? They're at six and a half wins. If you go over that, it's plus 110. They're plus 285 to make the playoffs. So here's what. Can I read you the players on their roster just very quickly? I know it's going to be hard to do. So the wide receivers are Van Jefferson, Ben Sk skaronic a cooper cup cooper's fantastic the

offensive line joe notebloom steve avila is gonna be really good at texas tech uh texas uh tcu brian allen tremaine uh antrim jr and rob havison rob rob's not bad but then it's tyler higby and then stafford and then a bunch of just dudes are running back. But the problem is the defense. You ready? Marquise Copeland, Bobby Brown III, Aaron Donald, great. Byron Young, Ernest Jones, Kristen Roseboom, Michael Haught, Akil Weatherspoon, Jordan Fuller, John Johnson III, darion kendrick kobe durant matt do you know any of these players i thought of aaron donald and john johnson the third no it's not great i don't know these dudes and i pay attention to lee look i've heard of akil

weatherspoon right like i've these. I know who they are, but where are the impact players on this roster outside of Matt Stafford, Cooper Cup, and Aaron Donald? Who is impacting a game, Matt, at a high level? They have so many young players. This is the fuck them picks, right? Excuse my language, but they won a Super Bowl, This is the fuck them picks, right? Excuse my language, but they won a Super Bowl, so it worked out for them. Now, all that being said, I don't really have a feel for the over and under. The over on this one feels like more people taking the over at 6.5.

If you think Matt Stafford's going to be healthy, and I don't know why he wouldn't be, except their offensive line does sort of worry me, his passing yard number is 3600.5 he's been over that number every year of his career outside the years he's been hurt that's a pretty low number matt um i'd be okay playing i mean you're betting on stafford obviously being healthy but that's a pretty low number for what he's gonna he's gonna have to be a lot of the offense this season they don't have a run game yeah well this is such a tricky team to evaluate because the reasons that we all like them are real reasons like matthew stafford consistent cooper cup if he's healthy it's like those two guys if they're if if you had if you told me one thing about this season, it was that Cup and Stafford played even 15 games.

I'd be like, shoot, do we need to bet them to make the playoffs? That's how good those guys are. Same with Donald. The rest of the team, as you mentioned, lots of problems. They also don't seem to be really competing this year because they're spending their 32nd in the money they're allocating to their to the players that are on the cap this year they're dead last when you look at their like transactions for the off season they obviously they had a million draft picks none of them were in the first round

and then they didn't really add anybody right like they just they like they didn't add competition at running back they didn't add like anybody on the defense it's all these rookies and young guys and undrafted guys but the other thing that's just like kind of kind of out there to me is we've talked about coaches every single topic so far every single team so far this is the best coach in the division right like sean mcveigh when you take out like he's he's 60 and 38 as a head coach if you take out a ton of football games yeah he is so consistent like every single year they do the same couple of things and i don't like the fact that these guys are back if they really thought they were going to be terrible they do what the cardinals are doing and that's just like shipping guys off and trying to get some assets back and trying to get Caleb Williams.

But I don't think the Rams, if they were to just win the first game or two and Stafford and Cup look good, all of a sudden, they're like a sneaky, super deep sleeper. What are they to make the playoffs? They're plus 285 to make the playoffs. They're plus 1,000 to win the division. Yeah, and it's like plus 1,000 to win the division. Yeah, and it's like plus 1,000 to win the division. I know, but it's like, what's our standard unit? Is our standard unit $100? I think it's like $100, $150 because we have so many wagers now.

We could put $10 on it to get a unit back. Do you know what I mean? Yeah, I know. It seems like you have to take a stab at it just out of respect for McVay. The over is plus 110. I think over 6.5 is the way to play any sort of they're going to have a good season better than playoff or division.

Because they can go 8 and nothing. They can go 8 and 9, Matt, and not make the playoffs and still get over that six and a half number. I will say that talking to people that know Sean McVay, and I think this is going to end up being true just because his personality, like he is very rejuvenated to have a young roster

and sort of coach again, right? That makes sense. He's excited for this process of building this young roster up. And so I do think that he's going to not try more than usual, but there's going to be a different excitement about sort of this season than we've seen in the past because he has just a young, young roster. How about Sean McVay coach of the year, plus 3,000? I thought about that.

I don't think I'd be good enough for that. We already have a bunch of – we already bet Sirianni at plus 3,000. Do we do another coach at plus 3,000 too? We're not doing that. We're not doing that. All right. I might do that that on my own that's i think if they go if they make the playoffs like i think he would win it this the story this year

is like they're not going for it they don't have anybody left they do by the way play the colts the cardinals twice they play uh the browns they play the nfc east like they they could theoretically uh do pretty well here. Sorry, I'm getting a phone call mid-show. Well, fine. I'm putting in the acres prop right now. Under 7.5 and a half. That's way too many.

That's way too many for him. Yeah. That's crazy. We're doing that as well. Okay. So what do we have for – are you done with the rams yeah done with the ramps i think we could save uh time with with the card we're just we're just betting the under four and a half and connor under 700.5 rushing yards they're gonna be atrocious

matt they're like they're trying to be bad they just trade away as a simmons actually just trade away one of their their swing tackle josh jones they're trying to be atrocious just take the under four and a half and be done with it like i'm fine with just doing that taking our connor under 700 yards i mean look if you find any sort of colt mccoy prop i would take it but they're not gonna they're gonna post you those yeah i i think we could save some time. I don't think anybody wants to bet this team over. I don't love the four and a half. They seem to be going for the Caleb Williams thing, which would be kind of interesting with the Kyler situation.

But the only way this gets killed is if Kyler comes back, and even then, wherever that reads, it's fine. So what we have for the NFC West is McCaffrey and Cam Akers and Connor all under. Now, there's no Seahawks running back listed. If we find one, we'll probably do it. Niners, no playoffs.

That's kind of a little bit of a little tickle there, right? Debo Samuel under 725 receiving. We're under Geno Smith. We're over Seattle wins, over Lockett, right? Receiving, and I put down over Stafford and Rams over. So that's what we have for the West. You good with that? Interesting.

Lots of bets. Let's do it. Let's move on to... Dude, we're like 10 bets a division. We were way more than usual. But again, four of those are the running backs. Yeah, right. Well, we're doing those automatically

but i like how we played this division it's i like it a lot um yeah um all right all right at the afc um what was i mean are we what are we doing with the Chiefs? You tell me, brother. I mean, I'm not touching the win total. It's juiced at 11.5. The way I would play this is I – It's just hard because they have so many offensive weapons that it's very hard to pinpoint which props to play. Travis Kelsey is at 92.5 receiving uh reception i should say at 1100 receiving yards so he's been over 1100 receiving yards for five straight seasons right and really

he's been over he's been over a thousand for seven straight seasons um and even when it's a low number it's like 11 25 in 16 games. His reception's at 92. He's been over that. He's had 103, 97, 105, 92, 110. Kind of have yo-yoed back and forth. The thing about the Chiefs this year is they have a lot of wide-receiving options. A lot of options, right? And they're y'all at Skymore, right?

We know that. MVS is there. Justin Ross seems to be in there. The Rice kid, they got two other tight ends. I'm sure they got Kadarius, Tony. Like, I don't know if Travis Kelsey is going to catch as many passes this season. I don't know if I want to bet on it,

but I think they're just not going to need him as much. But the problem with that is that him and Mahomes have that special relationship where he's the guy he throws to when plays break down. So I don't have a great feel for much of the Kansas City Chiefs' props for this reason, other than obviously the running back unders. But I don't know how to play kansas city man because i again i just i don't quite know how they're going to do things on offense this year that's interesting i mean i think um i mean the kelsey regression thing it's like if you're a

fantasy player that's like a popular take um but you know he had 150 targets 152 targets last year that's in line like the year before it was 134 in one fewer game um the year before he had about the same in two fewer games so i mean i think i think look you want to take the over receiving yards? I don't know. It feels a little bit like a stay away to me also. I would take the over because it's fun. But I just think that you mentioned all these other targets. That should, in theory, make it easier for Kelsey. So maybe it's – I think the yards maybe make sense to go over.

That would be a bad year for him if he went under, like a historically historically bad year here's i think how we how we do this right is we say matrick mahomes his total is 46 50 and a half which is insane he's been over that number every year but the year he missed two games for knee injury like we just we just take the over and be done with it matt like that's how we just we just capture all of this in one which is taking the over of patrick mahomes and that incorporates all these different players into it i'm fine with that i also like i i'm curious if the number on the over moved or at least the juice got a little bit better the chiefs haven't gone under 12 since mahomes has been there and that includes four 16 game seasons it's like is this the year where they go 11 and 5 like i don't think so they have a tougher division of course uh you would think

if denver's any bit any better but yeah it's it's tough man like you could do over 12 and a half from plus 140 i'd be okay with that it's like 13 and four it's like no well the problem with that is the problem with that is like that week's 18 game when they have their seed locked up and andy reid sits everybody and then finish 12 and five yeah i wonder if i wonder if we could do the like um the vision like correct order like we could do something like that it's just it's too hard to find this like i don't i don't know how creative we want to get but uh travis kelsey oh no wait never mind that was minus 330 um you could parlay my homes over 5 000 pass yards and kelsey over 12 touchdowns for plus 350.

That's not even a good number. Forget it, man. I think the Chiefs are just inefficient to bet on them because they're so reliable, and they're never going to get good value with a team like that, except for last year when we did. Yeah, yeah. We got great value last year because everyone was off of them.

All right, let's get to the Chargers here who have their win total of nine and a half juiced slightly. Actually, not really. There's money slightly favored to go under, but not by a lot. I mean, I like the Chargers. I like them. I'm surprised.

It felt like everyone was on them last year, and now this is sort of like the buy low team. Plus 128 to go over nine and a half feels kind of easy to me is that crazy i i know that the afc is stacked but like when you just their roster is unbelievable herbert was banged up pretty much the entire second half of last season um you know he should get he should ascend like this team this team should be better this year uh so i'm i my lean on this is over but i don't feel super strongly about it i don't feel super strong about it either um because they're the chargers i was asked about this the other day like when you sort of buy the chargers i'm like, I don't know when they stop being the Chargers.

Like pretty simple, right? The positives for them is they can't possibly be more injured this season, right? They fire their trainer. Really, they fire their trainer. And they have their left tackle back, which is a huge deal. Rashawn Slater was a second-team All-Pro as a rookie, right? Second-team All-Pro as a rookie. And so I like the addition of Kellen Moore to the offense.

And so I feel like playing a lot of this by sort of with the expectation that they're better offensively. So Justin Herbert is at 44-50.5. This dog is just like, he must love the Chargers, or he's telling us not to do this. I don't know, either or. He's at 44-50.5. He's played 17 games the last two seasons,

and he's been over that number twice by a wide margin. He fit for 4,700 yards last season and 5,000 the year before that. And the year he started 15 games, he was at 433.36. Like, Herbert's going to play 17 games, man. He's going to throw over this number. It's a huge number. I love that. Yeah.

No, that's a good one. They also, I mean, they're going to air it out constantly. They drafted another receiver. I think the Keenan Allen injury last year low-key killed them, and they still won 10 games in the division where they had to play the Super Bowl champs twice. I think they kind of fall ass-backwards in the 10 or 11. I'm fine with the over.

I'm fine with Herbert's over. And I wonder if there's any other just like by lows well i feel like i'm the last remaining alan fan on earth i really like the um the all the austin eckler unders this season um interesting more than anything i like the receiving unders because in this offense, I don't think he's going to get the checkdowns he got in preseason. I would love,

there's no receiving number prop for him, like receptions. I can't find any of them. I have rushing yards and I have receptions and receiving yards. The receiving yard number is 525 and a half.

That's low for him. He's had it, you're 900, 647, 722. I think people know that he's not going to be the offense this season, Matt. And I don't know if there's any value in wagering at these numbers. I mean, we have to do the rushing because of what we're doing for the season long. But I would love if someone could post a receptions number for him and I would hammer the under. Interesting.

Did we do a Chiefs running back to go under? Did we – I put it in there because we have to. Yeah. I just – I maybe skipped over that. I skipped over that tiny bit there. But we didn't put that in there. And also, we haven't talked about, but Chris Jones may or may not play.

I don't know. I really don't know if he's going to play. I think he'll play week one. He said he's going to hold out until week eight. I'll believe it when I see it. But, yeah, I put Pacheco. The Chiefs, the only two bets we have are Pacheco under and Mahomes over. I mean, that feels fine.

I like the Herbert thing a lot. And I think that, let's see, did they have another? Also for the Chiefs, they don't have it up yet, but anything Clyde Edwards-Hilaire, just take the under. Just all under for him.

Yeah, I could see him getting dumped. All right. The next two teams are probably the most interesting teams in this division. Denver, the much bandied, about return of Sean Payton. Their win total is eight and a half. They're plus 186 to make the playoffs, which I think I may be like. I can't believe I'm saying it, but I think Denver.

So in what world is Denver not way better than last year? in what world is denver not way better than last year like it will if wilson is 100 cooked that i'm willing to go down on this but like i just don't think sean payton takes that job if he doesn't think that russell wilson's got something left they have to start kind of they go vegas washington miami chicago to start then the jets at home which will be huge they can end up starting like four and one you know starts start pretty strong they Jets at home, which will be huge. They could end up starting 4-1. Start pretty strong. They end the season. They got Houston on the

schedule. They got Vegas the last week of the year. I just feel like when you look at this team, they had an absolutely disastrous nightmare season last year. They went 5-12. their defense was still incredibly good um and i think you know i think they should just be better across the board this

year and a big improvement doesn't doesn't seem crazy to me like four three or four games better with a last place schedule does not seem crazy yeah but that doesn't even get him to the over does it it could get them into the playoffs yeah um plus 186 i i just don't buy that russell wilson is gonna have a like a rejuvenated time with sean payne um we see all the time that when quarterbacks get to a certain age, they regress, right? And they often don't just pop back up into being what they used to be. They just slowly just deteriorate. And Russell Wilson had a bad year. I get that.

But is he just magically going to become Russell Wilson of old? Dude, in Seattle in 2021, okay, he started 14 games. He completed 64% of passes. Before that, 68, 66, 65, 25 touchdowns, six interceptions. He averaged 222 yards per game. The next season in Denver, he had the same season. He averaged 234 yards per game. Like, season in Denver, he had the same season. He averaged 234 yards per game. He's not the same quarterback. We have two straight

years now of him not being what he has been. And now it's just to believe that all of a sudden he's in this offense. He doesn't fit at all because of the timing and precision offense. And Sean Payne has said that we're going to run the ball and play extra pass, all those things. I'm going to believe now, Matt, that all of a sudden he's going

to bounce back and be a playoff caliber quarterback i don't know man well i mean this is a sean payton bet more than russell wilson bet and that's just based on like how many years you want to take broncos playoffs you're telling me plus 186 we don't have to i'm trying to give us something to take with this team because it's yeah i'm thinking the russell wilson under 37 passing yards i will say that uh sean payton's last let's see his last five years with uh the saints they were the 14th ranked defense the fourth the second the first and the fifth obviously drew breeze was there but drew breeze at that point in his career was not the drew breeze that won the super bowl and you know whatever 2001 was

that 2008 uh 2010 i forget um there's just 2009 2009 i was i was close um i just i just think that sean payton is uh is is going to be great there and i think that this team is going to improve a lot. The defense, the bones are there. Great receiving core. They just don't really have a pass rush at the moment, which is not good for this division. Pat Sertan's incredible. We know that.

Renny Gregory, hopefully, is back and healthy and ready to go. Jerry Judy, by the way, today, card off the field with a hamstring injury. I tried to find his prop numbers they're not up anymore um so i i don't know how bad of of uh of an injury that's going to be matt thinking about the future with him um but yeah so i took russell wilson under they don't have a listed running back right now for an under so you want to what's your do you have any other

you like anything with them i'll pass on i'll pass on anything else with denver um i yeah i'm good there because i actually think that i have a really i have a nice juicy wager for uh for the raiders the raiders are next six and a half is their number what's your juicy if it's raiders worst record i'm gonna love you i think they're the last winless team. They're plus 1,500 to be the last winless team. They're the cards box. You mean last team to – wait, they're going to start off undefeated? No, they're going to start winless and be winless the longest

because they start at Denver, at Buffalo at denver at buffalo pittsburgh at chargers what is it and they're plus uh 1500 um love it then they go green bay new england's i think their first decent chance to win a game maybe chicago week seven at chicago then it's at detroit mond Football, home for the Giants, then the Jets, then at the Dolphins, home against the Chiefs. Where's the win in there? Where's the game where you're like, I'm sure they're going to win?

Jimmy Garoppolo already hurt, below average offensive line. They have the second hardest schedule, Jeff, in the whole league. And I think that they have... Who's a better Caleb Williams team than they have like who's a better caleb williams team than these guys like who who has a better i mean they would have a new coach obviously it wouldn't be joshua daniels but someone else correct and joshua daniels like you know he's not a good coach you know who it might be lincoln riley yeah that really could be that's crazy that's right like a lincoln a lincoln riley

mark davis will give you 25 million dollars a year come be our coach it makes like 12 or 13 for usc i dude that would that i mean that would be so much fun to watch um like what would riley does riley want to go play in the big 10 or would he rather just get to the NFL now? Great question. I think Raiders' worst record is in play. I definitely think last winless team is in play. Raiders under six and a half is already in sharpie on the sheet. Yeah, done.

Yeah. I think Devontae is getting traded midseason. I think this is an absolute sell-off situation. They're favored in two games, and their win total is 6.5. That's a huge red flag. What's interesting is they have – Max Crosby is really good. Yeah. They're trying to make up for the just bad drafts they've had. And obviously, Henry Ruggs' situation wasn't their fault,

but you lost a player like Henry Ruggs. Arnett had some off-the-field issues, but a lot of your big draft picks just never panned out. And they got rid of them right away when they have a new staff there, right? Yep. Can you imagine? I never thought about that. I always thought the Cowboys for lincoln riley

can you imagine usc goes like 10 and 2 don't win the pack 12 and he just says i'm going to kill williams to to the raiders dude how about if uh tom brady has to fire josh mcdaniels i was one of the owners of the raiders i think it was john middlecoff i like his podcast three and out he said he thinks the patriots are going to make tom brady their general manager after this year if they struggle he owns a piece of the raiders like there's that how does that work you just sell your raider stock why he bought it this year so that he could make three million dollars to grind out you know north dakota state tape fuck that this guy that tom brady's he's got a lot of crypto losses to work off dude he's he's looking for that i am so excited when when i when you guys announce a

podcast with him it's gonna be my favorite day of all time gabe's gonna have to like personally work with him like personally meet with him and figure it out i can't wait dude i would love to work with tom brady i don't care what gabe says we have limited reviews on the podcast please if you're listening this long leave a review and like one of the last reviews is like gabe talks too much about tom brady i couldn't couldn't agree more random reviewer uh i completely agree um we want to put in worst worst record raiders just give that a stab sure why not what's that uh i'll find it if uh if you want to if you want to do your summary here i'll throw that in. We have Pacheco. We have three running back unders, right?

Pacheco on the Chiefs, Eckler on the Chargers, and Jacobs on the Raiders. If the Broncos post anything, we'll take the under. Mahomes and Herbert both over. We think they're both going to have good seasons. Russell Wilson under 35-50. Raiders winless, the longest. They will not win.

They'll be the last team to win, I should say. Plus 1,500. Raiders under 6.5. And Raiders' worst record plus a thousand. We're basically double-dipping on that, starting the slowest, right? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So we're done, man.

You can drop one of those. Hey, no, I don't care. Do you have any week zero college football takes, Matt? Because week zero is this weekend. I don't. I'm prepping for week one of NFL, but I know you do. So make the people some money. Well, I'll just say this now.

They changed the clock rules in college football this year. They're going to the more NFL style where the clock does not stop on first downs until two minutes left in the first half and second half. So second quarter, fourth quarter, obviously. It's going to

make totals come down. Just be weary betting overs. That being said, I took the over in USC San Jose State this weekend. And it's actually gone up two points since I took it. So I think it's at 66.5 now, 164.5. Look how Hank has us ready. Week zero CFB takes. All right.

Y'all are training him well. We have Navy and Notre Dame from Ireland this weekend. I don't really have a take on that one. But the over in USC San Jose State, I'm in for that as well. Are you excited for college football? You don't watch a lot of college football, do you? No, man. Our buddy Nick Wright said this the other day.

It seems like when you're married and you aren't a professional football player like you are, you got to choose one. You got to choose Saturday or Sunday. And I'm not willing to compromise my marriage to watch. It's a really good take. It's a really good take. Yeah, it's correct. I don't have it in me.

It's also just like I don't enjoy it in me it's it's also just like i don't enjoy it as much it doesn't feel like the same sport and i'm so all in on the nfl i'd just rather watch that so this is the one benefit of living on the east coast matt and rooting for west coast teams the teams i want to watch play on saturdays don't start till at least 3 30 eastern so i get like a full day of being a dad a full day of being a parent before I'm like hey and a lot of times I don't play till 8 p.m eastern and so I get a full day of like plus my wife just sort of realized that I make money covering college football and so like the things we do are because I get to watch football and talk about it and she just sort of gave up on this idea that I don't have to watch football for work i'm like no i have to i'm on the radio like this

weekend i'm on the radio saturday doing a pre-game show for all the college football this weekend i have to know the teams you know he's not watching them matt i have to watch them so i'm with you i mean yeah i'm with you man it's a lot of that's what i it's my sundays i'm like i what do you want me to do? Like get fired? Because, you know, me and Jeff have to make a podcast that is listened to by hundreds of millions. We do.

We do a lot. We do have a lot of listeners. Thank you guys. We have worldwide listeners. I appreciate it. All right, guys. We're back next week with general football talk. And we're back.

Week one, Country Ball Ravens. We're doing to figure out a day, though. I think we're one step at a time. Slowly but surely, we're back next week. We have a fun little sponsor this year, most likely. So we'll have a fun little stuff for you guys. We'll have prizes. You can win each week, by the way.

Actual prizes. Cash prizes. You can win this year. Hello. With a sponsor. Yeah, how about that? Yeah. Cash prizes. You can win this year. Hello. With the sponsor. Yeah. How about that? Yeah.

Cash prizes. So yeah, very, very exciting for the listeners and the followers. This podcast really appreciate it. Hope you guys enjoyed. We'll talk to you next week. Take care. Bye.