Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - West Divisions Team Totals and Player Props

Episode Date: September 1, 2022

Geoff and Matt are back to go through the win totals and preseason player props for the two best divisions. in football, the NFC and AFC West. They're are fading some of the hottest teams of this offseason, but you already know Geoff is all in for the Chiefs. Plus, Geoff gives out some Pac 12 plays for week one of the CFB season, and Matt gives out a play for... the NFL's week 2? I think the boys are ready for football to be back.Be sure to leave a comment or tweet @geoffschwartz to let him know what you think of his picks. Follow the podcast. to get notified when Geoff and Matt give out the five best plays of the week every Thursday during the season.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's Thursday September 1st I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford this is Jeff Schwartz a smart you powered by the varsity podcast network we are going through our NFL previews we have two divisions left Matt we have the NFC West and the AFC West we have saved the two for last this is the way this works we get $1,000 to spend in each division we're going to go through futures and props and win totals, anything we like in these divisions. And then if we have leftover money, which we end up having, we're going to roll over. And the bonus is we have $2,000 extra to spend at any point, any of these shows. We have $3,700 left. So we've only spent $300 of the extra money, Matt. We might

spend it all today. And at the end of the show today, I will give you my favorite week one college football wagers just because we're going all in, Matt. We're doing NFL. We're doing a little bit of college football here at the end. I know you're not the biggest college guy. I'll fill in the blanks for everyone. We'll make it happen. We save the best for last. How are you doing, buddy?

I'm doing great, Jeff. Did you talk with Gabe about your trip to Las Vegas? It was fantastic. I cost a lot of people money because they bet on the don't pass line because they're D-bags. It was a lot of fun. Vegas is good for a couple of days. My wife is just insanely fun. So it was a lot of fun with her her being there and um i did not enter i'm gonna do a super contest this year but i'm gonna do it on like a on an app like i'm not i didn't pay the thousand dollars to do the super contest this year but we will do one for our regular season i'll just do it via um uh you know one of the websites not really really in person, the Super Contest.

Okay, fair enough. Well, as long as I get to ride shotgun with you on this podcast, that's all that matters. I've already entered the contest. It's happening. I just didn't enter the main one because, look, I hope, Matt, that we have a much better year.

We've had two straight years of the same record, which is just over 50%. So I feel like I could spend $1,000 somewhere else. The thing about it is that things we're good at. This. We're very good at futures. We've been very good at this. We won a lot of money last season. We won, again, we bet $10,000 last year. We ended up with $15,000.

We won $5,000. And the Pac-12, which I'm very good at. So we'll get to Pac-12 in a little bit. Matt, are you getting more excited for the season? How are we feeling as we'll get to pack 12 in in a little bit um matt are you getting are you getting more excited for the season like how are we feeling as we get closer to the start i'm feeling i'm feeling very good i'm feeling like it's all starting to sort of become clear at this point right like okay the the things are the late season move the late off season move is when things sort of crystallize and the opinions start to sort of calcify and everybody's got their takes and we're going to get into one of them but i think like the group

think really just sort of has vaulted up on like a few of these teams and fantasy players and all these things that happened in the last couple weeks i'm ready for the games to start man like i'm getting a little bit tired of staring at these football previews and wondering if uh wondering if i have it all wrong i'm ready to just see some games and start betting on them well let's uh let's get going then let's get afc or nfc what do you want to do let's do the afc first okay let's do the fc let's do it all right so in order of the projected win totals the kansas city chiefs are the first team uh have you ever heard of them jeff over they're 10 and a5 is their total.

We have to lay a little bit of money, minus 120, plus 175 to win the division, minus 210 to win the playoffs. Go ahead. Over. Over. Look, here's the thing, guys.

I know that you want to hate the Chiefs. I get it. They're the big dogs right now. They went to four straight AFC Championship games. But we have made way too much about Tyrico being gone. And I know that we don't put a lot in the preseason, but there are some takeaways for Kansas City.

One, start with their offense. It's going to be fine, everyone. They're going to be fine. One of the best offense lines in the NFL. Travis Kelsey can still play. And they have multiple wide receivers now, whether it's MVS, whether it's Juju, whether it's McColl Hardman or Sky. They're going to be fine. Sky Moore, the rookie, going to be absolutely fine. The offense looks a

little crisper. They're going to be fine. But Matt, the reason why I like their over is their defense. For years now, the two things that were bothering the Chiefs on defense, slow at linebacker, that's been solved. Nick Bolton, Willie Gay, Leo Chanel, they can run at linebacker. They can run at linebacker. And tackling in space, they were much better in the preseason than that. Justin Reed's better at that. Trevor Duffy's better at that. Like, they are a better defense.

And this is why I said when Tyreek Hill was traded that this opens up the opportunity to add more pieces to this team via the draft and via free agency. They also added Carlos Dunlop. George Kaloftis looks good. The draft picks. So, they have two starters, obviously, early on. Kaloftis and Trent McDuffie. One of those picks was the Tyreek Hill trade.

So, look, I think the Chiefs are over here, Matt. Best quarterback in the division. Best head coach in the division. I'm going over again. Tough schedule. They have a tough schedule every year. They go over every year, Matt. Last year was a down year. They were 12-5 in a down year. Like, I'm going over again tough schedule they have tuscans every year they go over every year matt last year was a down year there were 12 and 5 in a down year like i i'm going to go over here i completely agree with your read on the chiefs i think it's a little bit of a

spoiler for how i feel about the rest of this division um i agree that everyone is sort of overreacting to the tyree kill thing i do think there's gonna be a difference but i think that they've they've instead of trying to find another Tyree kill they are just sort of like gonna reinvent this offense a little bit and I think people are just way too down yeah it's great it's more sustainable because last year I feel like they kind of got figured out and I think people are maybe I just I just feel like people are reading this team wrong like I think people are way too down on Travis Kelsey who last year was that you know it was just a little the team's figured out how to cover this offense by the way they were still unbelievable you know they're gonna they're they added depth instead of just

you know one or two guys who are going to make a lot of impact and for the long run i think that's a good thing although i'm not buying all the like juju smith schuster is going to be a top 10 fantasy receiver i'm not buying that but but i definitely think that, you know, I go back to Moneyball. Do you remember the movie Moneyball? Of course. And they asked how to replace Jeremy Giambi's production. Right.

And they were like, well, we got to take, we need one, I think it was actually Jason Giambi, right? Jason Giambi, the brother is Jeremy Giambi. How do we replicate this?

And they're like, well, we need to sign this guy and this guy. Billy Bean said in the movie, no, we need to find two or three guys to do that, right? We don't need one guy. We need two or three guys to make this happen. And this is what the Chiefs are doing. They're having two or three guys replace Tyreek Hill. And I get it. The explosive plays aren't going to be there. You're exactly right. They're not going to have Tyreek Hill bail us out and make

a play. But that might make the offense better because they're less reliant on one guy doing something and so i think in the end they're going to be just fine i do too um i think that the way to play this with some value in terms of betting i have two ideas for you okay the first is uh you can get an alternate line of their win total to make it over 11 and a half and that is plus 160 i also think you're getting really good value with plus 175 to win the division uh they haven't they haven't not won the division since 2015 haven't been worse than 10 and 6 since that year um i think either of those are a nice way to play it so rather than what number plus 160 but i think winning the division plus 175 is is a really nice number. But isn't that basically the same?

You're betting the same thing, like division and Chiefs over 11.5, right? Because 12 wins wins the division. So basically, I'd just take the division off instead. I would too. Yeah, it's a really nice number. I was surprised that it is that. Because yeah, betting to win 12, they can still win the division at you know 11 and 6 if things break right so i think that's the way to play it instead of the team the total yeah so which feels unlikely but so it feels that feels unlikely that they win

you know with with 11 but yeah dude i'm uh i'm in uh i'm in for that in for that as far as the uh this is a good question for the the fantasy drafters out there so there's two names that i think are on everyone's radar this year the two rookies sky more and pacheco are either of them gonna have an impact you think as rookies because we could play with their player props as a result well i would you know i would bet any chiefs running back under rushing yards. Yep. So we have here in our rundown, Claude Edwards-Hilaire is at what? 700 yards. He had his first year, he had 800,

and last year at 517. To me, the Chiefs have always been a running back by committee team, since Jamal Charles left. And they rely on whosoever the hot hand. And so far, Claude Edwards-Hilaire, both these guys, and Pacheco, they don't hit the hole. Like, they don't run to where the hole is.

Like, Pacheco had this problem with the preseason. Clyde Edwards-Hilaire dances too much. I would just take any under prop because that's what the Chiefs are going to be. Now, if you have a total yards prop for Clyde Edwards-Hilaire, if you have a total yards prop for Pint edwards hilaire if you have a total a total yards prop for for pachinko i'm all in on those which i think will be kind of hard to find but i'm fine with if you do clint edwards hilaire under 700 rushing yards totally fine with me and i'd be curious to see what his overall number would which kind of think hard to find

yeah his rushing touchdowns are five and a half and the under is juiced by it's minus 135 i don't think that the problem with the chiefs is like i don't think there's really any value in any player props and i think we're going to find that in a lot of these divisions or a lot in this division particularly like i think uh you know those i don't know it just feels like the chiefs there's too many ways that they could sort of build this offense. Kelsey's number, everyone's sort of expecting to bounce back, but his receiving total, they have it at 1,100 yards. That's really high. I would not do that.

Yeah. I'm good to pass on those. Mahomes is at 46-50. He's been over that number three of his four seasons. The one he wasn't, he missed the two games, and he would have been over that. That, to me, feels like, again, 5,000 yards, 47-40, and 48-39 in the years he played 16, 15, and 17 games. Yeah. His touchdown number is pretty low, too.

I'm trying to pull that up quickly. I think it's like his over- for touchdowns is 34 and a half that's pretty that seems pretty low last year 37 the year before 38 uh in 15 games the year before that that he was he missed two games only is there an interception prop for him because i feel like that's going to be one of those things that he gets cut down a lot this year with with like with just the the luck changes Good question. Very good point. It's 10 and a half. That feels like a tasty under there.

Well, he's had 12, 5, 6, and 13. Wow. He threw the ball almost 660 times last year. That's unbelievable. Yeah. I think the yards thing I feel pretty good about. Yeah. We could just kind of add that in maybe as far as like a little bit of uh if they like if he like doesn't play weeks

the reason that these overs with these like kind of fair totals are so tough is like oh okay like maybe they're maybe they're 14 and 2 and he sits the last week you know it's like yeah but even then he could be here this number i mean i think he's close to 5,000 yards this year. I'm open to it. I mean, it would be if he went under that, like something went wrong or he missed the last game or something or they were ahead by too much and he got pulled out of games. I'm open to it.

It's also a fun one to root for. I love it. Yeah. All right. So that's in there. We like the Casey to win the division. Okay, moving to the Los Angeles Chargers. Their total is 10 plus 220 to win the division.

This is such an interesting team, man. I'm curious what your thoughts are. Dude, I just don't trust them. Like, I just don't. I like Justin Herbert. I like the additions they made. But we praise their coach like he's won a Super Bowl.

I don't really quite get it. They didn't make the playoffs last year. I like the aggressive nature of his play. I'm all for that. But, I mean, come on, dude. Have we ever talked about a coach who hasn't made the playoffs like we do with Brandon Staley? I just kind of want to see it now. I do think they're going to be playoff team this year you know am i laying minus 140 on their

win total of 10 probably not in the over matt but they're gonna be a playoff team i think but i think the idea of them winning the west and winning 13 or 14 games just doesn't feel like at all what this season's gonna be for them so remember last year i'm not saying this is going to happen but remember last year the there there was a team it was the cleveland browns in 2020 they won 11 games okay then last year they had a win total of 10 and a half and everyone was like over they have the best roster in the league they add clowny they draft newsome awosu kororo, who ended up being awesome. They had this young coach who everyone was kind of buying in on and was like,

this is the guy who's going to turn things around. And then what happened? They had the weight of those expectations and the target on their back, and they went eight and nine. I feel like the Chargers, I think the Chargers have the best top to bottom roster in the whole league. When you really think about it, it's like they got JC Jackson. They're getting Derwin James back.

They got Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa up front. Like they have two great starting receivers. They added on the offensive line. Everything seems on paper, like it's going to just going to work. But if we know anything about the chargers and anything about betting, the team that everyone is just sort of like penciling in to make a huge leap usually doesn't do it.

I like, I sort of made this case in to make a huge leap usually doesn't do it i think like i i sort of made this case that it could be the bills this year i think it's more likely that something weird just happens to the chargers like they had 10 games last year where they finished within seven points they ended up having a winning record in them and like that's kind of strange because of the way that they managed the ball their offense at the end of the games i don't think that the chargers are going to be bad i think it's very likely that they're very good but i do wonder if there's some value in them to miss the playoffs at plus 160 so if they're missing the playoffs are we having another team from this division make the playoffs maybe i mean the the afc i'm

not high on denver we'll get to denver in a. We'll get to Denver. I mean, we have five teams we're sure about, which is Baltimore, the Colts, Kansas City, Buffalo, and Cincy, I think were the five that we're like, they're in. We felt good about, yeah. So if you look at like the rest of the division, like are we going, what are we doing? Well, then the rest of the AFC field is going to be like Pittsburgh. Obviously, the Chargers, Pittsburgh,burgh miami new england denver

vegas tennessee are the obvious contenders like maybe some weird team like you know jacksonville or somebody sneaks into the mix but like it's not look this is not likely to happen i think the chargers are making the playoffs but i think it's like an interesting hedge if we like one of the other teams in this division at all and just this fact of like they're everyone's team this year everyone is just saying like they're but they're and their win total to me the fact that it's 10 is a little suspicious i just feel like that's it's it's a number that's going to attract bad bettors to be like 10 like of course they're going to be 11 and 6 like it just is a little fishy i certainly think

the play here if you're to make the play the value plays the no playoffs right but i just don't think that's going to happen like i think they're good yeah it sucks so like i i wouldn't do that wager austin eckler here is at eight rushing touchdowns at minus 190 stinks rushing yards of 800.5 i mean he rushed for nearly a,000 yards last season. You know, not a really heavy team. So I'd stay away from that. I mean, is there, are there any props? I mean, there's just not a lot, again,

to your point about, you know, this division. There's just so much, like, spread out, right? There's so much that, you know, I think a lot of wide receivers can have. Like, just, it feels, again, like, it's hard to figure out what some of these numbers are going to be yeah um i'm gonna run one by here we could do i mean mike williams uh is a his pro his over under is a thousand yards i mean we're not getting

great value it's minus 115 on either side i i would think that he's probably a good under candidate with just the amount of options they have on that offense last year he had an amazing year played 16 games went for 1146 it's i don't know it's not my favorite bet ever but i do think that there's a chance i'd be very happy to root for justin herbert to throw for over 4,700 yards. Yeah. I will bring one to your attention. So Keenan Allen is at 1,000 yards on FanDuel. He's at 1,000.5. It's minus 112. He has been over 1,000 yards now in really the last five years and over 1,000 yards.

One, two, three, four out of five years. The one year he missed he was nine yards eight yards short but only played in 13 games keenan allen every year gets so many targets he is like i'm his numbers are always surprisingly low the last three years five years 159 136 149 147 157 he 157. It's funny because whenever the receivers get asked who are the top five receivers, all of them mention Keenan Allen. All of them.

Do you want to put this down as a maybe? I would definitely do that one. That's a really good number on DraftKings. It's up to 1050. So I'm very in on that as a low number. That's great. So if anyone wants to sponsor this podcast, any gambling company, hit me up.

We're in a free-for-all, man. That's awesome. All right, that's a nice one. I'm in on that one. Chargers, look, I'm just untrustworthy, dude. I just don't trust them. Yeah, I'm with you. Okay, next up in the division,

a team that I think we're both going to be pretty strong about the Denver Broncos also have a 10 as have 10 of their win total. They're plus two 60 to win in the division. What do you think? Under done. Give me the under other win total. Look, I think there's a couple of things that play here. One is that Russell Wilson is a great football player. He will be a Hall of Famer. He has issues in the pocket, and I just, I hate saying I want to root against him, but he's just so corny, dude. Like, it's just, it's a lot, Matt. It's just a lot.

I'm like, dude, just please stop. Please stop doing this. Before we get back to Joe, his passing yard number, by the way, is 4,100. He's only been in his career like one, two, three times in his career. So for 4,100 yards or more. I just FYI. That's a prop I think we should explore.

They're going to be a run first team in my opinion. But here's more about the Broncos. Okay, so you have a quarterback that there were faults of his last year in Seattle. Holding the ball too long. I think he got to the point where he was like too conservative because he was too aggressive and turned the ball over a little bit too much. Okay. So you have Nathan Hackett, first-time head coach, right?

The last time he called an offense by himself, Matt, was in Jacksonville, had Blake Bortles. They were terrible. First-time defensive coordinator. Like you have all these first-time things coming together. You have an offensive line that's built to do one thing. they're doing something else yep to me it's a lot of unknown and i bet the under when i see unknown i could not agree more it's a great case they're gonna here's the thing that's gonna happen with them they their week one game against seattle

which is restless former team obviously is an enormous must win like their schedule gets so much harder after the first two weeks of the season they go seattle houston then listen to this stretch coming out of their buy in week 10 at tennessee the raiders at carolina who we both kind of like at baltimore chiefs cardinals at rams at chiefs chargers that is brutal and with these first time head coaches they often kind of fall on their face early in the season they can't do that like they have to come out of the gate hot and i think that if uh if things start to go south it could get pretty ugly in a hurry the other thing with denver people just like i think people just have this idea of denver of like always being this amazing team with a bad quarterback like that's just been their reputation basically for even

before peyton manna got there then he got there and it just kind of cemented but like when you look at just their their group like we're putting a lot of we're putting a lot of eggs in the sutton judy hamler basket right we talk about their defense and like bradley chubb's a nice player obviously justin simmons a great player sirtan looks good but they're counting on like randy gregory to be like absolutely at his ceiling he's on the other side like we're talking about ronald darby as a starting quarterback like their linebackers are like guys i i don't think i could pick out of a lineup like their draft they added nobody who i think is going to be like a big contributor this year so i just kind of feel like denver is one of these teams that everyone just like thinks is good and then the rust thing where we're all kind of wondering what he still got like

i i don't know man i think that 10 is a pretty high number especially considering the other teams they have to face in this division agreed nfc west and afc west on all these team schedules obviously afc west but it's a really tough it's really tough sledding for any team in here one of them's got one of them's got to go pretty far under agreed i agree i'm under here we're the same we're the same boat yeah so i i think that's a pretty i think probably instead of taking the under we just take them to miss the playoffs plus 120. I think that's a much – we get better odds there. Oh, good call. I don't think they go to – I don't think nine wins makes the playoffs in the AFC,

but I'd be willing to risk that. Never no playoffs. Plus 110? 120. Oh, even better. Okay. Yeah, pretty tasty. And I like the Wilson under 4,100 passing yards.

Yeah, I'm down for that run first team i just i don't think he's gonna get there yeah it's so interesting too like i think everyone's sort of like projecting giovante williams is gonna have this like huge season courtland sutton's gonna have this huge season it's like guys like maybe they won't like it's possible they do but like i feel like everyone's just saying like well now it's just going to be better it's like vic fangio wasn't a great coach but are we sure this guy's better like taking into consideration the coaching here like right it's it's a new coaching staff yeah it's a and by the way like the it's a new head coach with no head coaching experience in an offense that obviously like

could hum without him would be my guess their offensive coordinator was the tight ends coach last year right the defensive coordinator was a defensive backs coach like they all got these huge promotions and now they have to deal with patrick mahomes and justin herbert like it's it's not it's not an easy assignment agreed all right well we're out on denver i'm really curious what your take is on the raiders the final team in this division their total is eight and a half um they're plus 650 to win the division which is hilarious um i've spent a lot of time going back and forth on this team i'm curious where you landed i think the number is about right matt um i think the third or fourth

best team in this division. And I think Derek Carr is underrated, but now kind of getting to the point where people keep saying that too much. We understand that. Bad offensive line. Again, a coaching staff that wasn't very good in Denver, I should say. Now trying to make do again.

Yeah, they have some weapons. I get that. They added some pieces, but it doesn't feel enough to beat the Chiefs and the Chargers consistently. So I just think their number, like I think they're an eight or nine win team. Someone has to win eight or nine games in this division, and it feels likely it's going to be the Raiders.

So I think their number is really good, Matt. I don't really have much to say about kind of props-wise for the Raiders, just because I think a lot of the props are kind of where they're supposed to be. Yeah. I wish I had a spicier take. I was originally going to come out pretty strong for the Raiders because

like, I think when you just, I think that people are kind of, you know, they're, they're not accounting for how good Devante Adams is. And I feel like a lot of people are sort of saying like, well,

it's really Aaron Rogers. Like Devante Adams is, is the best receiver in the NFL he's going to make a huge impact on this offense no matter what they have a problem up front a little concerned about the running backs but Devontae Adams changes your offense we've seen it time and again with just a new receiver like we'll get to Arizona you add a top receiver into kind of a sketchy offense and it changes things to arizona you add a top receiver into kind of a sketchy offense and it changes things having said that their defense has so many question marks josh mcdaniels is a pretty big question mark like i feel like people sort of just don't really know what to do with him uh you know because he did not succeed his first go around and now we're sort of like well wait is he this really valuable coaching

prospect i don't know odd schedule they come out of the gate with a really tough listen to this first they have their buy in week six which is a disadvantage in these long seasons especially where they have nine road games at chargers cardinals at titans broncos at chiefs like that's that's a really rough way to start so and i think that last like they last year they went seven and two and one score games they were incredibly lucky they had that weird game against the chargers that snuck them into the playoffs so i it's i don't know i i just feel like it's they're right around the right spot and i i wish i had a better take on it they they're they're a big question mark i'm trying to pull up devonta adams uh receiving yards this year do you have that it's not pulling my computer's being slow. Yeah. It was in the – let's see. It was in the 1,200 range.

Okay. I think – so I have a Darren Waller number. It's at 1,200.5. Darren Waller at 850.5. His last two healthy years, he's over 1,100. So you're just basically betting that he stays healthy. I guess maybe Devontae Adams pulls some of that away from him. But that feels like a good spot to be in.

Devontae Adams has been over 1,200 yards three times in his career. Three times. Yeah. I mean, I think personally they're going to feed him constantly because they have to make this trade make sense, I think. And usually it's like that first year they seem to go all in. I mean, Darren Waller last year, he was one of those guys where every week it was like, what year they seem to like go all in i mean darren waller darren waller last year like he was one of those guys where every week it was like what is going on with this dude like he was injured he just like didn't play even when he played like he didn't seem great

i personally think if you want to play a player prop i would say what's let me get the number out i think that people are a little down on hunter Renfro because last year he had an absolutely ridiculous amount of targets and catches last year. He was the most targeted by percentage player in the red zone of anybody in the league, which is crazy. That's obviously Adams is going to eat into some of that, but that's not going to totally go away. His number is at 800.5, by the way. Well, I like him in catches. His number is 77.55 by the way well i like him in catches he had he is his number is 77 and a half last year he had 103 he had 128 targets last year jeff like that's a guy who's a

staple in that offense granted waller was not on the fields and swante adams didn't play there but this guy gets this guy gets a shitload of targets so i would be into that but it's like do we i don't i don't know if that's you know it's sure it's okay value but like who cares so you so what's his target set do you have it 128 targets last year 70 his number for reception this year yeah 77 and a half receptions feels really low to me oh interesting yeah so you want to play that for the raiders it's i don't know what do you think it's like it who it's not all that sexy but it's like we get plus 110 on it i don't know i just feel like i just sitting around watching receptions for hunter redford doesn't seem like something i want to do on a weekend yeah exactly i don't i don't want to do that at all so let's

not let's not do that then yeah let me look at some of these exotic props here that we can find that we did last week for so how about let's see here uh chargers first loss of the season i love these ones kansas city week two is plus 130 and who do they play week one they play raiders raiders week one at home thursday night football at kansas citys' first loss of the season. They play Arizona Chargers Colts, Tampa Bay, Vegas, Buffalo at home, plus 1,500 week six. That's really funny.

Or San Francisco week seven. I do think if we're looking to put my money in this division we go mahomes mvp okay make the case he's gonna throw for 5 000 yards and they're gonna be the one seed i do think that he's going to have a few of these games like they you look at the the case for mvp mvp always comes with like some years it's either well like who's who's the best choice of like a couple of people who don't really feel like they years it's either well like who's who's the best choice of like a couple of people who don't really feel like they deserve it like last year it was like are we really giving it to jonathan taylor like no we're gonna give it back to aaron rogers i think one of the

key ingredients for quarterbacks is like do they have like mvp moments and this year mahomes is playing week two thursday night weeks week four sunday night against brady monday night against the raiders sunday night against the titans like too late a sunday night and a saturday night late in the season like i do think that he could just have some of those games like we work with uh with with nick wright on another show and he said the other day he was like he's eighth on the top 100 list he's more likely to have a game where he throws eight touchdowns than actually be the eighth best player in the league this year like he is going to be pissed off that everyone thinks because of tyree kill he's not going to show out this year so

i do think it's i think it's a pretty good two biggest chiefs fans in the media that's right i know a lot about this team All right. So let's review our AFC West wager. So we're taking Chiefs over 11.5 out because we're going to do KC for the division, right? I think that's a better play. Okay. We have Mahomes over his passing yards at 46-50. Keenan Allen over 1,000.5 receiving yard. That's such a good call.

Denver no playoffs Wilson under and Mahomes MVP. So Casey to win the division plus 175. What are you thinking? I mean is this your strongest feeling? Of these wagers? Yes. 250? 300?

I'm good with 250. I was going to say. Mahomes over probably 200, right? Yep. Keenan Allen over 200? Sure. I'm going to go Denver no playoffs for 300. Love it.

Ooh, there's your strongest one. Wilson under 200 again for that one. Mahomes MVP just 100 on that one. Sure. I like it. I want to find some. We had that weird, like some of those special props from last time. Let's see here.

Yeah. We can throw these in next week too because I feel like we spend a lot of time prepping something that is somewhat useful to the listener because we don't recommend that you go out and bet all these crazy exotic ones. Absolutely not. I do. I did want to flag. I was looking through the DraftKings app today,

and there are so many. Derek Carr to lead the league and blank, lead the league in passing, and Devontae Adams to be the top receiver. Everyone is in on Derek Carr, and that is so worrisome to me. I'm very worried about the Derek Carr experience after last year. Yeah, I would stay away from all those.

Apparently not totally beloved by his teammates is what I've heard. That's probably accurate. Let's get to the NFC West. Some interesting thoughts here on this division I think. Let's go to the nfc west okay the super bowl champion rams also with a 10 and a half win total um people are a little sketchy about the rams so the under is juiced to minus 125 they're plus 130 to win the division i mean mean, this whole conversation, I think,

comes down to Matthew Stafford's elbow, no? Yep. And that's why I think I would play the Stafford under passing yards at 4,500.5. But here's the thing. I think Warren Sharp brought this up. The Rams play the most playoff teams.

They play a ridiculously tough schedule. They play the hardest, the best of everyone in the NFL this season because they have the number one schedule in the NFC, a first-place schedule, and they play the AFC West. They have a ridiculously difficult schedule this season, even more so than the Chiefs. I think that

you could play the under here, but I think Matt Stafford, for me, underpasses juice to 1-1, minus 1-20, but if he misses twoord, for me, underpasses, it's juiced to 120 minus 120. But if he misses two or three games with an elbow, an elbow's not good for a quarterback to have. Those don't go away. We saw Dak Prescott last year have a shoulder a little bit, right? Like inside the shoulder.

I just would – I think Stafford – this is why Jimmy Graupo to the Rams is one of my thoughts. It's like if you end up having him hurt, you have a backup quarterback that can play. So I'm good with Stafford under. I think they revamped their team. And I do think this is why the Rams under to me is a little bit juicy, but I think the rest of the division is not as good as we think,

so I don't really want to play the Rams under here, is they're a very top-heavy team. We know this, right? A couple injuries, Matt, and it all falls apart. And every team can say that. I get that. But they are very top heavy team. We know this, right? Couple injuries, Matt, and it all falls apart. And every team can say that. I get that. But they are very top heavy. And a couple guys go out here and there. The depth is not there.

I'm not going to bet against the injuries. Again, I think the rest of the division is not going to hit all their win totals. Someone has to win these games. Probably Los Angeles. So I think it's, again, Stafford underpassing yards. I'm in for that. His elbow has issues. Will he throw a lot?

Will they just take opportunities to run the ball to limit his throwing, right, Matt? I think that totally happened during games. But I would play the under win total, but I'm not because it's juiced and because I think I'm going under on a couple other teams in this division. Yeah, so I completely agree.

I think the most interesting line of the entire player prop market to me is, and not to bet on, but to notice, is that Cooper Cup's receiving yards total is at 1,300. Reminder that last season, Cup had 1950 receiving yards. The fact that they're putting the number that low, I think, is sort of saying like, hey, it's like Allen Robinson's there. Cool. I don't think he's going to like, you know, steal 700 yards from Cooper Cup. Like, I think people are just a little bit concerned about this Stafford thing. And like, if you think about it it if he misses four games with this schedule are they making the playoffs like i honestly think that may be the way to play this team

and this is like i the rams are awesome sean mcveigh's track record is outstanding no no worse than nine wins since he's been there but i kind of feel like the way to play this is plus 200 for the rams to miss the playoffs and you're essentially just saying like something goes wrong with this team with this schedule whether it's Donald or Stafford or Cup or whatever like maybe they just aren't you don't want to root for an injury obviously but like if something regresses from unbelievably amazing which they were all of last season to like you know this happens like guys have down years even if they're healthy like it could happen so i think that the only value there is to sort of fade them and it's not to take the under 10 and a half because that's pretty low um would just be

to have them miss the playoffs i'm good for a tiny bit of money on that but the problem with this is we're gonna get the other teams of division i'm out on all the rest of these teams like so like the Niners I mean I'm pounding the under for Niners 10 wins I just they're starting Trey Lance a quarterback who they don't even trust kept Jimmy Garoppolo on the roster like if they're under I'm never wagering a single cent on Arizona ever

and Seattle's gonna win two games like who's winning the division on Arizona like to me that's where I'm at like yeah I'm with you on the Rams Matt but someone has to win 10 games. Like who's winning the division on Arizona. Like to me, that's where I'm at. Like, yeah, I'm with you on the Rams, Matt, but someone has to win 10 games. It's division,

you know, like it's going to have to happen. Yep. I agree. And I sort of feel like I almost feel like betting both of the Niners and Rams to miss the playoffs. And it's like, you get your money back on one of them because I agree.

Like I thought this jimmy garoppolo thing is like the most enormous red flag i've ever seen this close to a season like i get it and part of the reason is like they can't they can't just trade him for nothing they can't trade him you know they there's no point in trading him for like a seventh round pick and eating cap right but and you can't cut him because the two teams that are most likely to pick them up probably are the rams and the seahawks like you just you just can't do it so you know they're sort of in a tough spot but the fact that they're bringing him back for all that money and they announce it you know august 30th huge red flag jeff i feel like the 49ers are in some serious some there's something going on there is really quick talk about the Bears really quick about this Jimmy Garoppolo thing.

So I'm taking the under win total of 10 because they're going to start Trey Lance for a little bit of time. But it just tells you to your point, they don't trust Trey Lance, right? And they have Jimmy Garoppolo as insurance. But the problem with this, the problem with this, Matt, is if you're the Niners, you have to be all in on Trey Lance. You can't do this in and out thing with young quarterbacks. You have to allow him to make his mistakes, make his errors, and get ready to play, obviously, in 2023, kind of full speed ahead, right?

And I keep hearing this thing, well, they have the roster to win now, so that's why they're keeping Jimmy Garoppolo. Well, then why don't you play Jimmy Garoppolo? if he's your win now guy, then let Trey Lance sit for one more season, but Trey Lance is not that guy, so you're going to do this half in, half out thing and if Trey Lance ever plays poorly

they're going to go right to Jimmy Garoppolo, and that's kind of lingering over this entire team the entire season if you're Trent Williams right now, and you're 34 years old, you want to win a championship, who do you want to play quarterback? Jimmy Garoppolo. That's 100% right.

No matter what happens this year, that's always going to be, well, Jimmy can play. Well, we can put Jimmy in. What if Trey Lance gets hurt this year and Jimmy Garoppolo goes three and one in four games? Is Trey Lance going transit getting his job back but all that being said if Trey Lance plays half a season I mean they're not getting to 10 wins I'm going under 10 wins and under Trey Lance 3,500 passing yards it's just not going to happen

this season they're telling you right now Trey Lance is not playing all season long I couldn't agree more and reminder like he did start some games last year he did pinch hit in some games last year he played through an injury last year too but the guy just has not played a lot of football and i really do think that matters which is why you have to play one thing to remember in two nfl starts like this is my point about you can't have jimmy g there because you need to tell everyone it's trey lance's team by keeping jimmy g there you're telling them it's not trey lance's team because the guy is still there. Think about this. The last

two seasons Jimmy Garoppolo has been healthy. 19 and 21. Super Bowl and it's a championship game. They've done a lot of winning with him, so no matter what happens, they're always going to have him behind his shoulder. Oh, we start one and three? Hey guys, Jimmy's right there. Jimmy can play. Jimmy's right there. You need to

eliminate that from the team, and they didn't do that here. I think it causes locker room friction. I think it causes other issues with Tre'Lance's confidence. Nothing like this, man. People said, well, Joe Flacco. Joe Flacco what? He's in New York.

He won the Super Bowl 10 years ago. Jimmy Cobb won recently with this football team. I think it's a bad decision to keep him on the roster. I'm under here and under trey lance i also think that i mean reminder the 49ers without jimmy garoppolo when shanahan's been there their record is 8 and 27 like jimmy garoppolo it's it's they've figured it out obviously like they've gone with backups it's not like it's some other really talented starter in that time but it works when he's in there and this team like you already mentioned like trey lance he's probably going to miss some time because the 49ers always miss time their team is always the most

banged up in the league they're an old team with a lot of guys who always go down you've already got elijah mitchell with problems you mentioned trent williams he's always had to play through injuries through his whole career even when he was young and playing mentioned Trent Williams. He's always had to play through injuries through his whole career, even when he was young and playing for my Commanders. Kittle's always been down. Let's see if Debo Samuel can have a year like last year. There's a lot of things

that could go wrong with this team. And I think that one of the problems that they have is I think Kyle Shanahan just reads too much of his own press. All the time, it's like, Kyle Shanahan, what a genius. What an an amazing coach like whatever he's an amazing coach but like in his let's say he's been coaching in san francisco since 2017 they've had two winning seasons they've had a couple of seasons where they sort of bottomed out granted they've had a ton of injuries to deal with

but that's part of a problem at some point that's it's not just bad luck when it's every single year right so i just think that they're one of these teams that, like, they're a little too high on their own supply. It's like they need to – are we sure that they're really going to be awesome with Trey Lance? Like, are we sure? Yeah. And they're not even sure.

And that's why I think this Garoppolo story was such a huge deal that I feel like the media is a little bit reticent to talk about because and I like and I like um John Lynch and Shanahan yeah yeah all right so it's pretty it'll be I think I think they're the most interesting team this whole year like I they're the way that this season turns is is gonna be so fascinating with you um but I'm with you I like any i mean lance's rushing totals are pretty are pretty low it's only 500 yards i wouldn't i don't think he played i don't think he plays long enough i like one other prop for the niners i'm gonna pull this up right here as we continue to go this is the first year nick bosa has had like a healthy off season and i just think he has a

great season for them this year his sack sack total is high, I think. Let's see here. It's it. That's the Matthew Judon. I don't want that. Nick Bosa. Here we go. It's only 11 and a half.

He had 15 last season. I like this Nick Bosa over 11 and a half sacks. Huh. I'm intrigued by that. It's a random thing. I just kind of just randomly like that. We don't have to put much on it, but I just think that he's going to have a huge season. Again, it's just he's healthy, man.

And his number is, I think, pretty low for a full 17-game season. I'm into that. Are we getting plus money on that or no? No, just minus 110. We throw a couple dollars on it, I think. Okay. What about – So Debo Samuel's receiving yards total

is at 950 and a half. Last year... I just would not play anything on that because we don't know who the quarterback's going to be for the whole season. But I think that if any time where Trey Lance is in there, you're likely to go way under that.

I just think that... I mean, last year... We're going to have Trey Lance under passing yards doing this. Do we want to do under Debo too? No, I don't want to do that. I just think that i mean last year we're gonna have trey lance under under passing yards though in this yeah under depot too no i don't want to do that i just think that he's he's one of those guys where i'm just like oh boy i could see a big regression coming there but i'd rather fade lance than fade him i'm with you i agree uh he said 10 games of this steve o samuel that we know yep i just feel like they're never gonna throw like i i everyone compares lance rg3 but it's like rg3 was a pretty

good passer at the time like i don't think lance just like has the throwing ability that everyone thinks that he's gonna have i think they're gonna hand it off and do a lot of weird stuff on the ground so next up is the arizona cardinals do we have to talk about arizona yes this is like just would rather not i just doesn't team is so uninteresting to me. They're 8.5 is their total. Evenly placed on both sides. They're plus 400 to win the division. They're plus 125 to make the playoffs.

Man, they're one of the strangest teams in the entire league. I think we're both out on them. It just seems like they have no plan. No coherent plan, Matt. Nothing. Yeah. So, Kyler Murray's rushing yard is 525, and he's had 544 and 423. I would play the under here.

I just don't think he wants to run the ball as much anymore. He's been hurt doing that, and we've seen him for a couple years. But I just like, what's your feel on the, I just, the just the win total i just this team just bothers the shit out of me they're a i mean they have no plan they have no plan no i agree i they're i mean i think that they're a team that could utterly combust because you know they tend to they've tended to start out hot right that's the thing is they always fade down the stretch they start the season casey raiders rams uh that's a tough stretch they don't get the andre hopkins back until i think week seven right these six weeks suspension by that point like who knows what their record is and they just don't have a tendency to get better as the season goes along and their record without Hopkins,

they were one and four without him last year. They scored 10 fewer points a game when he wasn't out there. You think the under win total? I mean, I don't think it's a great value because I think we're out on the other teams. It's like they could win nine games. It's possible. Over? I don't know.

I'm saying I just don't think it's a great number. If it was nine and a half i would i would be slamming the under eight and a half i feel like they can win eight they can win nine like kyler murray is still a really awesome quarterback just stay away from it yeah i'm i'm fine to stay away i got there's nothing on this team that i'm that i'm dying to bet i gotta be honest i like murray under the russian total yeah i'm fine with that under five under 525 all right well let's get to seattle uh matt who i was shocked to see their window is five and a half but the unders is at plus 125 they're fucking awful i don't get this like they're gonna they're gonna win three games

what are we doing here can you name not good... They're not good. Let's see. I couldn't name one of their corners. I couldn't name one of their defensive linemen. I know Jamal Adams and Diggs are back there. Cool. Their defense is a mess. And their quarterback is Geno Smith. Geno Smith. We were joking about...

It's like, oh, the last time he was the starter was when that guy punched him in the face and he lost the job. Do you know when that was? That was like 2013 or 14. Like he hasn't been a starter in the NFL for so long. Like what is the path for them to be anything? I just think that it's them or the Bears that to me seem like they're going to be the absolute worst teams. Yeah.

I'm like hard on the under here I just don't get what the case is they're I mean the case I guess is Pete Carroll but like they they just they weren't good last year with Russell Wilson what are they gonna be good with Geno Smith this year for right I completely agree Pete Carroll the oldest coach in the league it's like is he really going to be like yes let's grind out the week 16 game and try to get you know and not try to get a better pick and again nfc they play the afc west and the nfc west like they have a really tough road they start with that game against russell wilson like they're going to get annihilated like it's it's they're going to have a rough year i'm

i'm down to go under for the five and a half. Anything else? I don't want to do quarterback props. I mean, they're not available. I just can't touch much right now because I don't know what they're going to be. I'm fine. I'm good to go pretty strong on their under here. Okay, perfect. Plus 125.

It is in. All right, let's go to our props here that we have chosen for this division. We have Stafford under 4,500.5. What do you want to put on that one, do you think? I feel like the standard's good on that. 200, okay. Niners under 10 wins, minus 110.

I don't feel super strong about that. I feel very strong about the next one with Trey Lance's under. We can go 300 on that. Okay, so why don't we do 300 on that, on Lance under? We'll just do 100 on the Bosa. That feels like a kind of out of nowhere prop, right? Yep. Under rushing yards for Murray, what do you think? Standard. I'm fine with that.

Do you want to go bigger on... 300 on Seattle. Yeah, let's go bigger there. Okay. Hank can do the math for us tomorrow. We're going to have money left over to spend next week and we'll kind

of wrap up with some other futures we like because we've got to still scour and see. I mean, I feel pretty comfortable with what we've done so far. Matt, have you looked

at college football yet this week? I haven't, but I did want to mention one other prop that's out of sequence, out of nowhere. Okay.

Because I think this number is going to go down. I would like us to get in a Najee Harris under before that goes down. There's been these reports about the Lisfranc injury, which is one of those injuries that's like, oh, it's going to be okay. It's sprained. The number I'm seeing as we're recording this is 1,100.5 rushing yards. I think a reminder that last year he averaged an incredibly low amount of yards per carry and was the most used running back in the entire NFL.

There was no way that's sustainable. I think it's even. I think – let me go back to it. But I just wanted to do that before everyone gets wise on it. Yeah, I'm fine with that. It's not fun to root for unders. Done, done. Dude, you know me, man.

I'm running back unders all day. Running back unders are how you make money. Let me just confirm that it hasn't gone down since. Yeah, it's minus 115, both sides. I think it's a safe bet. Great. I love it. I love it.

So you haven't looked at college football week one. Have you looked at NFL week one yet? Yes. I love it. So you haven't looked at college football week one. Have you looked at NFL week one yet? Yes. I have. Our show next week, we'll get into our favorite. God, we're back, buddy. Like, this is my favorite part of my week is my one hour where we get to talk shit and I get you to bet on the Jaguars every week. It's my favorite thing.

I mean, I like more like it. God, I like the Texas and Carolina week one. Oh, hammering both of them. You're going to have to convince me to not take the Chiefs in the hook in Arizona. What's the line there? like it kind of like the texans and carolina week one oh hammering both of them you're gonna have to convince me to not take the chiefs in the hook in arizona what's the line there i'll get a three and a half three and a half in arizona on the road oh my god it's such a slot it's just such an ass bet it's such a terrible bet we're not doing that we're You don't have to talk me out of that one in week one already. Oh, man.

We're back. Week one, college football very quickly. Look, we've joked about again, look, we don't make ourselves out to be sharps. We think we have a good process when it comes to how we make picks each week. It's not always going to be perfect. Then we get to 500, which makes no one money, right? We don't make money.

You guys don't make money, but we have fun along the way. I do make money in the Pac-12 conference. All right? That's what I do for a living. I cover them five days a week on the radio. The last two years, excuse me, 2019 and 2021, 2020, there's no,

I didn't track because of that weird COVID year. Matt, I think I told you my record, right? Or did I not tell you my record yet? Well, remind us. 65 and 27, that's a spread. 65-27 against the spread. Wow. I do the Pac-12 very well. So maybe I'll give you guys my picks,

even though I typically don't give them until Friday during the week. But for this week and week one in college football, I like Utah minus 2.5 on the road to Florida. And I love, love San Diego State minus 6 at home against Arizona. I don't get the love of Arizona. Their win total this year is two and a half. San Diego State won 12 games last season. 12 games.

They have a new quarterback at transfer. They got some other transfer pieces. They're really good on defense again. Arizona has two playmakers. That's it on their entire team. Like, two guys are like, yeah, okay, I might want that guy on my own team. That's it. That's it. Like, I just don't get this number. And that's, I think,, I might want that guy on my own team. That's it. That's it. I just don't

get this number. That's, I think, why I've been successful in the Pac-12, because people just give shit numbers. Those are my two I locked in. I would look toward Boise State plus the two and a half on the road in Corvallis. Other wagers I like this week, Arkansas minus six at home against Cincinnati.

Cincinnati loses their quarterback and their best defensive player off a playoff team. I think they're going to have a little bit of a letdown on the road. So I got Arkansas minus six there. That's pretty much what I got for the ones I like in week one so far. I'll tell you, Oregon-Georgia is this week. It's Saturday.

I'll be in Atlanta for the game. Anyone's going to be there. Come say hi. It'll be in Atlanta for the game. Anyone's going to be there. Come say hi. It'll be hard to miss. I would take Oregon first half plus the points if you're looking for a wager in that game. Georgia's defense, they have first round guys, Jalen

Carter, Nolan Smith, Kaylee Ringo. Oregon has a bunch of guys that go in the first round on defense too, if not the first round, the second round. Brandon Dorlis, DJ Johnson, Noah Sewell first round, the second round. Brandon Dorlis, DJ Johnson, Noah Sewell, Justin Flo, Christian Gonzalez, they're very good on defense. And so it comes down to, you know, just offensively

Bo Nix, can they do enough? I think the first half, you get the best version of this offense. Right before Georgia kind of figures out, they lost seven players to the draft. So to me, I go Oregon first half, and I would lean Notre Dame to cover at Ohio State. I don't feel great about that game. I would lean in the draft. So to me, I go Oregon first half and I would lean Notre Dame to cover at Ohio States.

I don't feel great about that game. I would lean in that direction. So we're back. No college show this year. We're just going to do the NFL, but I'll give you my picks as I see on Wednesday, if I like anything when we record, but we've had fun doing this.

We'll come back next week with a regular show out on Tuesday. We'll do our week one NFL show for Thursday and we'll include, as I said, some college picks and whatever cleanup we want to do. I kind of want to put more money on your boy in Houston to go over his rushing total and to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. We were in on that one. You were in

on that one early. That's a good job. Thank you. Very good research on that one. I was going to say you were sort of being humble with like, oh, we don't really win you money. We do. If you bet all of our player props in our futures last year. We won money in the player props last year. And all in because of that. We did make money

last year. And I've got a goal. We need to top 55% this year. How about we top 53%? 55. Shoot for the moon. Land among the stars. I might as well go play the super contest this weekend. That's right.

Make sure I get in at 55%. Well, the fact that you aren't in it and now the pressure is off, instead of having the target on our back. No, I'm just not spending $1,000 on a contest. I'm still doing a contest. I can't believe we're back to this. I think one thing I've been looking at, Jeff, I don't know how you're going to feel about this. There's a, if you feel really good about some week one lines,

you can start looking at week two lines and think like, oh, how's this going to go? Where a team like Denver is favored in week two over Houston by 10.5. And I kind of feel like Houston's going to come out and look pretty good and Denver's going to look kind of shitty. And I'm sort of thinking about maybe taking a little Houston plus 10.5 on the road in Denver in week two. How degen is that?

Do you think the line will be like 7 or 8? Yeah. Or, I mean, is it going to be more than ten and a half like what would have to happen what's the out of the one by 40 for that line to go up i feel like you're gonna you're guaranteed some good closing line value there i think i think you you probably are wow week two already huh wow because i think the week one is week one's so unusual and i always stink in week two because i feel like I always fade the overreactions and guess wrong on what they are. But when you look at some of these week two lines, they're huge.

San Francisco is favored by 8.5 over the Seahawks. Denver 10.5. The Cowboys are going to be favored over Cincy. If Cincy comes out like gangbusters, that could change. The Packers are favored by 9.5 against Chicago. These are some really big lines. So I wonder if there's a little bit of value getting in early. I have not looked at week two yet,

Matt. I promise. I know. That's why I got on. That's why I got on your radar. I'm curious what you thought. I surprised you with that. I got to go look at week two,

man. I'm still looking at week one. Oh, you got to look at week one. I'm wondering if there's a dart to throw out there. Week one. Week two. I kind of like that houston one i might take that one wow that is bold already i'm like not even my head is like so i gotta get through week one first of college football before we get to even week one of the nfl a week from today we'll have thursday night football right we'll have oh my god rams what do you like let's talk about that game really quick

it's uh the the bills are two and a half point road favorites. That seems kind of crazy to me. What do you think? Right now. Have to give a pick today. I would take the Rams at home. I would too. Plus two and a half.

I would too. Yeah. But that's not going to be our contest. No. I would not. I can't wait. We're a week away. Let's go.

A week away. We've waited all year, guys. We're here. We're almost there we're almost here alright guys when you listen to this we'll be one week away

from the NFL if you made it 58 minutes please go rate and give me a rating it really helps when you guys give me five stars if you listen to this long enough

you like me you like Matt you like Gabe you like our show and you're not my parents then please or mine or yours or Gabe are yours please give me well

hanks parents for sure listening hi hanks dad please please hanks dad please give us a five all right guys have a great weekend talk to you guys next week is the way to take care of money. Bye.