Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - What Cut Day Means for NFL Players, QB Tiers, CeeDee's New Deal, and Football is Back!

Episode Date: August 27, 2024

Geoff is back with another episode of Geoff Scwartz is Smarter Than You. On today's show, Geoff refelcts on his own experiences as a player to take you inside coaches offices on "cut day" around the league. Plus, what we can learn from Mike Sando's QB Tiers, the Cowboys extend CeeDee Lamb, and did Deion Sanders do the right thing by banning Sean Keeler from his locker room?College football is back! Be sure to follow the podcast to be notified whenever a new episode is released, and leave a rating, comment, or tweet @GeoffSchwartz to share what you think!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Tuesday, August 27th. I'm Jeff Schwartz. This is Jeff Schwartz, a smarter than you. Lots to get into as the preseason is ended and teams are trimming their rosters from 90 to 53.

CeeDee Lamb gets paid. There's a quarterback tears article out on previous from college football. A full weekend of games Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, even one on Monday. We'll talk a little

Deion Sanders controversy in Colorado. I really appreciate everyone messages, tweets, as we return the podcast in some form for the NFL season. It might just be this, me talking to you guys, sharing my opinions about the National Football League, including maybe a little bit of gambling at the end of the episode

as we look forward to the week that will be. But if we need this podcast to continue in any form, I need you guys to rate, review, subscribe. Let me know you like it. Share it. Send it to your friends. The more listeners we have, the easier it is to continue doing this. But we'll be back in some form or fashion this year. I really do appreciate the support. It's nice to get some messages every now and then that you guys are enjoying the show. So I appreciate that. If you're listening to this show on tuesday the 27th it's after 4 p.m your favorite team has trimmed their roster from 90 to 53 guys today

is the day the teams must be at 53 players and there will still be transactions happening after today as a way of wire takes effect older plays being released added to rosters so the roster will be ever-changing but knowing that 53 players is the max your favorite team is allowed to carry from now until the end of the football season. And I've been cut, guys, every which way. I've been cut at the end of training camp, middle of training camp. I've been cut in February. And being released, whether you know you will be or not,

is never a fun experience. My rookie year, the Panthers told my agent, hey, we're going to release Jeff. I want to bring him back to the practice squad. I knew what's happening. The 6 a.m. call to the hotel still was jarring. Hey, is this Jeff Schwartz? Hey, yeah, come in. We're going to release you because you don't know what your future is going to be after

you've been released. You have been told you might be on the practice squad. No guarantees in the National Football League. I've been cut as an older player, knowing my preseason reps were limited. Driving to the facility that morning, knowing I'm being cut, got the phone call. Hey, bring your playbook in. Still, never fun. None of it's fun.

All the work that you put in, from the end of the season, training at home, training wherever you are, to the work you put in the off-season program, to the work you put in training camp, feels all for nothing, but you don't make the roster because the end goal in every one of those situations is making the roster, being the NFL, being part of a team, trying to win a championship, trying to make some money. All those things matter to us and that's taken away after you get released. The way this process works is teams go from 90 to 53 after the third preseason game. The old system was like 90 to 80 and then 80 to 53, or it was 75 to 53. They used to have it in

kind of waves. But what we've seen so far in the NFL is most teams have released 10 to 15 players immediately. That's where that first amount of cuts from the 90 to 80, those guys had no chance of making the roster. And as a player, you can feel if you're making the roster or not based off of reps. Now, as a young player, you might not know this, but you certainly feel where you are getting your reps. Are you with the first team, the second team, or the third team, right? In games, if you're in the third team in practice playing with the second team, okay, this time you have a chance. Are you doing special teams? Are you third string linebacker, but first string special teams? It's a pretty important thing,

right? Special teams are a big part of the game. So as players, you can sort of feel that. If you're a third string guy all along, you're not making the team. You know that. You might not think that actually because you still hold a hope. But those are guys being released from 90 to about 78 to 75. 75 to 53, a little bit tougher decision. Those are players that are getting reps with twos, maybe even ones. And as a player, you feel like you have a chance to make the team. Hey man, I'm doing some good things. I'm playing well. Coaches like me. I'm getting opportunities in preseason games. I played well. But the truth of it is, as much as NFL teams talk about competition, it's almost non-existent. 53 roster spots, about 48 of those, 49 of those are taken up in Sharpie, written in Sharpie before training camp starts.

Many reasons for that. One is draft picks, right? Draft picks, especially in the first couple of years, are going to make the roster. Contracts. If you have a guaranteed contract, you're being paid a lot of money, you're most likely making the roster. Even if your play doesn't signify the contract you've gotten,

or your reps don't really signify the contract you've gotten teams are sometimes beholden to that contract they cannot release you they don't want to take down that that that dead money also you might be a veteran they could use you in certain positions and so the roster is pretty much set you know there's a seventh linebacker a ninth offensive lineman maybe backup quarterback fourth fifth running back teams are figuring out by the way they want to keep certain number of position players versus not. So that's why the cuts happen a little bit closer to 4 o'clock today. And as well, the roster will ever change, right?

Guys get released today, get put on waivers, and teams can pick them up in the next 24 hours and then sort of redo their roster after the waivers. And that, by the way, is the absolute worst part of cut down day, is you think you've made the team. So today at 4 o'clock, every team will be at 53 guys. And you're going to pick the phone up. You're going to call your parents, your wife, your spouse, your different other.

Hey, I've made the team. And then 24 hours later, when the waiver claims go through and they have to cut someone you get cut i've seen it happen all the time as much as coaches tell you hey guys the final roster is ever evolving it's it's going to change things are going to happen with waivers and cuts and veterans here and there and injuries don't think you've made the team naturally you think you've you're on the roster in 2012 in Kansas City, the Chiefs were 2-14 the year before. I came that year with Andy Reid. And your waiver priority is based off your record from the previous season.

So the Chiefs had a number one waiver priority. And when you have a new staff coming off a 2-14 team, you got to redo the roster with players that you pick. So we get that 53-man roster. The Chiefs picked up, I think it was seven to nine guys off waivers. So the team that showed up at practice on Tuesday or Wednesday after cuts was not the same team on Thursday. Seven or seven to nine guys had to be released to add the waiver wire priority guys, the waiver wire pickup guys back on the roster.

Worst part absolutely of cuts is that, okay? And we're going to have players being released that are told, like I was as a rookie, hey, we're releasing you. We want you on our practice squad. But you still have to go through the waiver process. So there's an opportunity for players to get released to end up going to a different team. And that's why teams wait to the very end.

They want to flood the market with all these players at once. So maybe a player that you want to keep on the practice squad that other teams are on gets sort of caught up in the wash. Teams have scouts that watch the preseason games, have a list of players. If they come up, if they're available, okay, maybe he's better than the guy that we have now. So the rosters are ever evolving next 24 hours, 48 hours 48 hours 72 hours it's going to keep changing and changing and changing

until we get to game day so we game week and we have a roster set up um for uh your favorite team moving forward to keep an eye on what's happening with all these rosters again i mean look i i've been it's being cut is in any form, whether you're a high-priced guy, you've made in the NFL, you haven't made in the NFL, your job is ending. The work you put in is really for naught. You feel like you've wasted all this time. I remember my final year, it was in the NFL,

for trying to find a game with the Lions. I'd put in all this work to rehab my ankle, and my ankle wasn't good. I mean, I knew why I got cut. And you get released, and career's over. That was it. Last time I set foot in an NFL facility, last time I set foot on an NFL field, practice, game, whatever it was, that was it. And it was nice enough. The Lions talked to me about, hey, here's why we released you.

Here's what it is. A lot of times, they give you platitudes. You see hard knocks, right? Hey, buddy, good job. We loved you. We'd have a roster spot for you. If you need any future, give us a call. Obviously, it never ends up working that way. The calls never get made. No one ever helps you. It is what it is. They say nice things about you and you move it along. But it is an experience that you never like. So guys are watching their phones today, hoping they don't get that call

that they have been released because your life is sort of changed after that happens. And look, I don't want you to feel sorry for players. Don't feel sorry for us. I'm not asking for sympathy, telling you how it feels from the perspective of a player.

Every year, The Athletic puts out an article mike sando writes it uh with quarterback tears quarterback tears and they go one through five i believe but only one through four ends up um you know being basically the tears you can vote one through five. And I always find this so fascinating how the NFL views these players because a lot of times fans, you guys listening, look through the lens of fans, fantasy football, and

maybe traits, maybe being able to run the football, things like that, where NFL teams look at different things, right? You look at a lot of wins, postseason wins. We're going to get to that in a second. It's a big thing that you might, quarterback, ooh, quarterback wins, not a thing that we should look at. NFL teams do that. That's just the eyes of the NFL, okay? Tier one, Mahomes, Burrow, Allen. That's it. Three in the tier one. Obviously, Mahomes, number i think i think mike sandow wrote that he's been uh

the past five years 249 of 250 ballots have put him in uh in tier one um a quote is there a zero category above tier one said a defensive coordinator one uh one one d coordinator said you know he's he's like brady when brady was his prime you can't bet against that dude because he's the best in the business um one coordinator had had Mahomes as his only tier one quarterback this year. Joe Burrow was two, and Allen was three. I was surprised to see Burrow in here considering his injury history, but I will tell you guys this. You guys know how I feel about this. You follow me on Twitter, at Jeff Schwartz, that as a Chiefs fan, I am most fearful of the Bengals and Joe Burrow. His plus trait is accuracy, but also just pocket presence, right?

Like just pocket ability to move in the pocket and avoid pressure to find his receivers down the field. And I think that's his plus trait. When you look at these quarterbacks all these quarterbacks you have to have multiple plus traits to be a tier one guy right um burrow again accuracy pocket movement composure all these things that matter towards winning big games and he's won a lot of big games right he's made a super bowl already right i know he's been hurt made a super bowl tier three excuse me one tier number three, Josh Allen. No surprise there.

I think he should be two. Tier two's interesting. Lamar Jackson's four. Stafford, Herbert, Rogers, Stroud, Prescott, Goff, Hertz, Purdy, Cousins, Love. A big tier two. Let's start with number one, which is Lamar Jackson at four.

Two-time MVP. This is where the expectations of Lamar Jackson and the results in the postseason collide. So I get it. Quarterback wins. The team sport, that might not represent the actual play in the game. But for quarterback like him and Josh Allen and Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes and Stafford and we're going to Rogers and Prescott moving forward and some of these guys who are pretty right on this tier two list, what you do in the postseason is all that matters for a lot of these NFL executives. And it's the difference between tier one and tier two, because they've been a number one

seed twice at the Ravens. Failed to make a Super Bowl year those times. They played a Chiefs team last year at home who was not the same Chiefs team of the past. The game they have to win. They were four and five point favorites, something like that. 75.5 passer rating in six playoff games. So here's what a defense coordinator said. He's a one with limitations for me.

When you can win a lot of games with him, when you watched against Kansas City, he can't pass what he has to. That is still true. But he's a wonderful football player. So the way for Lamar to go to tier one, which he was not there last year, is to play better in the postseason.

Whether you think that's fair or not, that is how NFL people feel about him because expectations are when you're the two-time MVP, then you get to Super Bowl, then you win a Super Bowl, then you get to AFC. Those are expectations now, and that's how people are going to judge you, right or wrong, judging you on postseason success.

Mass Stafford's five, as I mentioned, Herbert, Rodgers, dropped one mentioned, Herbert, Rodgers, dropped one tier. Herbert and Rodgers, both tier one last year, dropped down to tier two. Obviously, I think with Herbert, the upside of athletic ability, he's got a can of an arm, playing with Jim Harbaugh, Aaron Rodgers.

Look, coming off an injury like this, unprecedented, but if he's healthy, he's going to be good, guys. As much as you might hate dislike the jets don't like him he's gonna be good stroud eight ascending player nine prescott how about jared goff man um he played well last year he really did he's number 10 in the nfl in tier two he went up from uh from tier three up to tier two. And he played well last year. He did a good job.

And he'll be rewarded in this poll if he continues to play well next season. Here's a couple of comments. It's set up so it's right in front of him. He doesn't have to make a lot of decisions on the field. Another defense coordinator said, got a good run game, a bunch of check downs with tight end. He's got good players around him.

He has to go one, two, three and fire the ball. But he's another guy who, if he came down to a two minute drive, I wouldn't feel great about him in that situation. Again, decision makers, coordinators, they look at specific periods and points of a game or a season to judge the upper echelon of quarterback. Jalen Hurts is 11. Something I found pretty interesting here about Hurts, two comments here. If they can't run the ball, Hertz is not effective, a defense coordinator said. He can't handle pure pass rush.

When he got hurt and became immobile and they had to throw the ball, he showed what he was. I think they might have paid a guy that they are going to have to have a really good team around to win games. Last comment here. This is a positive one here. This dude who basically mentioned that just toughness, right? He was beat out. He was beat out and able to play well in Oklahoma, play well

in Philly. Here's the last one. Pretty interesting here. The word is out. If you run zero blitz against Hertz, I'll show zero and back out of it. He will panic. Defense coach said, this has to change. They lose Jason Kelsey, handle the protections. Basically everything you bring in a coordinator who likes to drop back will be interesting. So basically, they're saying that the loss of Jason Kelsey did a lot of the protections and the helping Hurts understand

what's about to come. Without him there, there might be some growing pain. So that's something to watch with Eagles this season. It's something to watch. Purdy 12, Cousins 13, Jordan Love 14. I was surprised. Jordan Love went from Tier 4, he hadn't played, to Tier 2. There's Ascension with Jordan Love.

But I was sort of surprised to see him in Tier 2 after essentially 8-12 games of some good play. Tier 3, Tua, Lawrence dropped down from 2-3. Tua stayed in 3. Kyler Murray, Sean Watson, Baker Mayfield, Derek Carr,

J.O. Smith, Russell Wilson, tier four. Jones, Fields, Minshew, Richardson, Levis, Bryce Young, darn a lot of guys that, you know, some young players that haven't played terribly, terribly much. Nothing strikes me in this is I think that most NFL fans would probably put two in tier two, would probably put Lawrence in Tier 2, and Kyler Murray healthy in Tier 2.

Some comments made by coaches about Tua, I put him right in the middle of the Tier 2 stack, a head coach said. You basically got a guy who was a perfect fit for Mike McDaniel, but kind of like with concierge quarterbacks, what are you going to do when it's a playoff because the chiefs it's two minute drive and play action all that shit ain't gonna help you again this is like the fourth comment about the playoffs and specifically the two minute drive for how many coaches two minute drive two minute drive two minute it's these little moments in games

that the upper echelon quarterbacks get judged by. Your two-minute playoffs, postseason, big moments. That's it. If Tua were to hit in those moments, he'd immediately go up to Tier 2. If he doesn't, he'll stay in Tier 3. Trevor Lawrence, here's an interesting one here. It's a problem if the ownership thinks you are 1 or 1.5 but really you are 2 in a good year

I'm over 2.5 really a lot of drop passes last year for Lawrence we'll see if he's able to play with more confidence play a little more poise curious where Trevor Lawrence ends up after the season as I mentioned I think Colin Murray is a tier 2 guy when fully healthy

Deshaun Watson at 18 just got to play better I'm high on the brows if he's able to just play a tiny bit better uh Russell Wilson at 22 I mean sure Gino Smith at 20 uh Fields and Justin talked about this earlier in the week Fields and uh and and Wilson same quarterbacks essentially uh Sears have to choose between one of them that's why Sears aren't going to win this year and then the very end Jacoby Brissett, who's 30. I don't think he's 30 if he plays a full season, but he's ranked last in this article. So again, takeaways are very simply,

for certain quarterbacks, the bar is X. Certain quarterbacks, the bar is Y. But for the top guys, that X number, we'll go with X, right? It's playoffs. Playoffs playoffs all you're judged on playoff success and the ability in the two-minute drive in the two-minute drive in the important situations to win a football game that's that's the way it goes when you have expectations just the way it is that that is the that's the way i think about football a lot of times is,

hey, how are these quarterbacks doing in these situations? I know that Tua can do things when everything's well. I know Dak can do things when everything is going well. How do you do it when it's stressful, when there's adversity around you? And that's how these quarterbacks are judged. All right, Steny Lamb gets paid by Dallas Cowboys after sitting out, Finally gets paid.

It is a big deal. It is a four-year deal. $136 million. It makes him the second highest paid non-quarterback in NFL history behind Justin Jefferson. Deal includes $38 million signing bonus, the largest ever given to a wide receiver. And CeeDee Lamb has certainly earned this by his play in Dallas. Last season,

135 receptions on 181 targets, 1,749 yards, 12 touchdowns. He averaged 13 yards a reception, over 100 yards per game receiving. Catch percentage, 75%. That's pretty good. And here's the thing about this. I know the number feels big, guys. I get it. It feels big. The wide receiver is now getting paid as a non-quarterback, essentially what used to be reserved for basically quarterback and then premium position, defensive end, cornerback, left tackle. Now, wide receiver, because of the impact those players can have in a passing league with a lot of young quarterbacks they're getting paid as premium positions so lamb is getting nearly 34 a year because he's a premium position in a organization

that needs their quarterback to play well that's what and that's what this comes down to he's getting paid because they've invested in dak prescott and need to get the most out of dak prescott now whether you agree with investing in Dak Prescott, how much you're paying Lamb, I don't care. But the going rate for this player is what he got. And the Cowboys have, again, they're not all in on Dak, but this does signal that the Cowboys feel a certain way about Dak Prescott and the future of this team.

They're signing Lamb, most likely, they're going to sign Dak Prescott and the future of this team. They're signing Lamb. Most likely, they're going to sign Dak Prescott and run this thing back. The question I have is when you start paying Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb and Zach Martin, they're going to have to pay Micah Parsons is you need to hit on draft picks to be good now. So the Chiefs have done. So the Cowboys have to switch their mindsets from sort of, and they did this obviously, they signed almost any free agents, right?

Like they know when you start paying these guys a lot of money, you have to now turn into a draft and develop team because you can't afford free agents. You need depth. You need depth behind the players you're paying a lot of money to. When you're not paying a lot of money to big superstars, you can buy your depth. You have the money to do that.

Now, and the Cowboys know this. It's not a surprise. Your depth has to come from draft and develop. And nothing wrong with paying these guys a lot of money. You have to. Again, Lamb is up. He's a premium position. He's a player to help Dak Prescott.

So sticker shock, I get it. Ton of money. Cowboys had to pay him. Could have paid him last year. Could have been cheaper. Cowboys always wait. They're going to wait on Dak Prescott. They're going to wait on Parsons.

But I think the story here is that the wide receiver market is now being treated as a premium position in the National Football League. When the Chiefs let go of Tyreek Hill, I thought teams would look at that and say, hey, the Chiefs are doing this. We're not paying wide receivers.

In fact, almost the opposite has happened, where teams are going more into wide receivers because you're on Patrick Mahomes. It's hard to find an offense in the NFL that's good without an impact wide receiver. And when you have someone like Lamb, who has played well in this offense, and Dak Prescott, who you played,

you paid a lot of money to, you need to make sure that you put the best players around him for success. I thought a season with playoff wins would end up in Dak Prescott possibly going somewhere else. But this signing makes me think otherwise. You're not going to pay C.J. Lamb and then not pay Dak Prescott. Maybe you go to the young quarterback, I guess, with C.D. Lamb.

I just don't think that that's the case. So this might be a sign that Dak Prescott is going to get paid. So that's C.D. Lamb contract. Went with this, guys. Full weekend of college football. Cannot wait for Thursday. Thursday slate, just okay,

but Colorado, North Dakota State is on Thursday. Big game for the Buffs, which I do think they win that game. We have Clemson, Georgia on Saturday. LSU, USC this weekend. I will just tell you this, guys. I know you like to wager on sports. It's legal in a lot of states,

including my North Carolina. Opening week's kind of hard. I only have four or five wagers. I think it's five now. A couple of those from friends that they're not even my own wagers. It's hard to find edges without seeing these teams play. A lot of teams have transfer portal players,

new players, look at Florida State, man. Lost a bunch, new players, and it just didn't go as well in week one. It takes some time to sort of gel and work through things in a game situation. No preseason in college football. So just beware of wagering on some of these games. I have so far the Oregon-Idaho over 63. I think Oregon is going to score 63 points themselves. They're going to play their backup quarterback, Daunte Moore, at some point, and will continue to try to score.

I have the over in Utah, southern Utah. It's 53, which is wildly low. Utah's offense is completely healthy now. They're going to roll through it as well. I think there's a possibility there that they score in the 50s themselves. I have Colorado minus 7 against Arkansas. That number is no longer available, so not a wager that you can make. I've never named plus 3 against A&M. I'm sort of fading the hype of A&M.

I have Hawaii plus 14 against UCLA. It's sort of my fate of the week there. I think that UCLA is going to have a little bit of trouble going to Hawaii. Ignore the Delaware State game. That game is unimportant for Hawaii. They did not care about that game, didn't want to be there. So I have Hawaii plus 14 at home against UCLA Bruins. Let's talk Colorado very quickly.

Deion Sanders decided to ban a Denver Post columnist, not a reporter, a columnist, right? He's more of an opinionist. Sean Keillor, because there's not like the coverage that he was getting from Sean Keillor. And Sean Keillor, I've read some of his stuff before. He is kind of a shock jock-esque opinionist. He has called Deion Sanders the Bruce Lee of BS,

and he has covered the program harshly he's banned from asking questions he's still coming to games they still credential him but he's banned from asking questions and a couple things i find so interesting about about this topic uh last year if you recall when colorado went to tcu they beat tcu and deon i believe turned to ed warder who they relationship and said to Ed Warder reporter said hey do you believe now so Dion turns the media and after a big win just told you guys and asked the media to reply to him and give him the love that he thought he deserved. And so he has no problem sort of dishing it out, the media, which again, no one really cared in the end. I mean, people talked about it, but he's allowed to lash back out at the media.

In this instance, the media lashes out at him, he bans the reporter from covering the team. Soft, just feel soft, right? If you don't like the reporter, you don't like the columnist, Sean Keillor, just don't take questions from him. But banning him also draws attention to the columnist. No one nationally paid attention

to the Denver Post about Colorado. Now everyone's following his articles and writing about it. It just comes off as soft. It's included in his contract as a clause where he's allowed to only pick and choose the people he talks to. Again, soft. All of it's soft. You got to have tougher skin than this. If you don't like what he writes, win football games. That's what this comes down to, right? Is Colorado went from one win to four wins. They did a great job in year one.

Not good enough for the way they started and not good enough for the way they talk. Being confident, having ego, talking a lot, big game. I love it, man. You have to have that swagger to win in college football. But the wins aren't there yet. The wins are not there yet. And people are going to question you about the way you go about things if you don't put the wins. If you win any games here, non-games here,

everyone will laud you. They're going to praise you. They're going to be over the moon that you are correct, that you predicted this, that you're right. They'll cover you in a minute. But when you go 4-8 and you talk loudly about your program and promote your program, which again,

Oregon does the same thing. Organizers are freaking hard knocks to show out. Promoting your program is fine your program, which again, Oregon does the same thing. Organize a freaking hard knocks show out. Like promoting your program is fine. It's what you should do, but you gotta back it up with wins. And when you don't back it up with wins, you're gonna have people in the media that don't like you that are gonna write articles like this.

You can't ban them every time you feel like they're writing something that is something that you don't agree with. And again, it draws more attention to the columnist. So again, I wouldn't have done it. The other thing that I find so interesting about this is the lack of pushback from the Denver media about banning the reporter from asking questions.

So at USC a couple of years ago, a student reporter from asking questions. So at USC a couple years ago, a student reporter from some publication got banned. Huge outrage in the community. Two weeks later, ban over. No outrage. Now, you might not like Sean Keillor, but the lack of outrage from the Denver media is fascinating to me

because what if he does this to you next because you didn't stand up for someone else in your industry who unfairly is being singled out to not cover the team anymore. The media in Colorado is interesting.

I find that part of it curious that they're not standing up for someone in the business who, yeah, he writes critical articles. You may not like them. You might think he's out to get Deion Sanders. You might think that he hates Deion Sanders,

but he shouldn't be banned. Just don't answer his questions. It's pretty simple. Just don't do it. It comes off as soft, as immature, and you want to control the narrative, which every coach does, but a lot of them do it a little bit,

a little bit there. I hope they win. I think they win on Thursday, but if they don't, watch out for the backlash Colorado's going to face if they don't win. So that is it for this episode, guys.

Hope you enjoyed it. Please, again, rate, review, subscribe. We will talk to you next week. Have a great weekend watching ball, everyone. Take care. you