Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Who Loses When the NFL Misses Games?

Episode Date: July 17, 2020

Geoff's back on a special solo podcast with an update on how NFLPA concerns are evolving, Derrick Henry's contract extension, Dak Prescott's lack of a new contract extension and college football's late-arriving COVID guidelines. JJ Watt & NFLPA concern: (0: 28) Derrick Henry: (9:09) Dak Prescott: (14:53) NCAA guidelines: (19:19) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's friday july 18th jj watts has players want to play derrick henry gets a new deal because no one learns their lesson dak prescott lacks security and college football has new coronavirus guidelines i'm jeff schwartz and this is jeff schwartz is smarter than you there's a lot to cover here and a lot is movement has happened between the last time we recorded this monday came out tuesday and now on friday morning there are protocols put in place by the nfl and nflpa they have been i believe they have been sort of agreed upon nothing's final so it's actually final but let's start here really quick jj watt tweeted out something i thought was pretty insightful today number one one, we want to play. We know you want to play.

We know this. I've said this for a while now. The reason why I believe the NFL is coming back is because they want to play. The owners want to play. We want to be as safe as possible. Agreed. Great point. We have not received a single valid infectious disease emergency plan from any team or the

league. That is something obviously needs to be worked on and uh i i don't have a great answer for why that's not done so far we do not know if there'll be preseason games we'll get back to that in just a second um we do not know if there'll be daily testing semi-daily testing etc this is one thing that we have got to do at least every other day but i would prefer i feel safer as a player doing this every day the nfl has got to keep its players obviously safe as possible but also be able to trace if anyone does come in contact with covid gets covid showed up the

facility with covid and we know that there's a five to seven day incubation period so it could take time if you test someone let's say every other day maybe you miss it maybe you don't but if you test every day it'd be hard to miss someone testing positive coronavirus I think the NFL has got to go all out at making sure everyone is tested as soon as they show up in the morning and then you go about your day knowing that everyone is negative. Now, of course, they're all false positives. I get that. False negatives as well. But I would feel great if I was a player every day.

Gabe and I talked about this on Tuesday's show. It should be this way anyways. And I get there's a shortage of testing. That is a concern of mine of making sure that we have enough tests for everyone around the country, not just sports leagues holding it. He tweeted this a little earlier today. So we have an answer for the next one. We don't know how potential positive COVID tests could affect contracts and roster spots. This has been answered.

The league intends to change the injury reserve rules to create a COVID-19 classification. Players who test positive will be placed on the COVID-19 list for three weeks, creating a roster spot that would then be filled with a player who is negative for the virus. The players on the COVID-19 list would be paid their normal salaries. After three weeks, there's a question mark of what happens.

Put them back on the roster. Maybe there's a ramp-up period for a week, sort of like if you are on short-term injury reserve, which I've been on. I think it was week eight you can practice again they can activate you kind of anytime in that practice window so maybe there's a week of activation here a practice kind of getting someone back at you've seen their lung capacities after this as well um and you know this this is i like this is a good step for the nfl to acknowledge

your players are going to be sick they should paid, and it should not affect their future contracts, which that is hard to know. But this way, they still get paid their normal size if they are on the COVID-19. Because we're going to need that this year. Guys are going to test positive. It's going to happen. We know it's going to happen.

And according to the NFLPA, 72 players across the league have tested positive for the virus as of July 10th. So those 72 players would have to go on that short-term COVID- IR list for three weeks. They'll obviously go through a protocol process of testing, negative testing, and being able to get back onto their team.

So I like that part of it. We're slowly moving in the right direction. Nothing has been agreed. This is back to JJY, I should say. Nothing has been agreed upon regarding what training camp will actually look like and how the ramp up period will work so i'm gonna tie this into preseason games i'm beginning to wonder if the players really want to play the preseason at all and if they don't more power to them they're using this opportunity not play the

preseason they feel and and look and rightfully so i think that why waste time playing in a game? Why waste energy? Why waste a chance to get sick is a better way to put it for a meaningless game. And yes, that is a fair way to look at this. But I think the players are losing a lot more here than the owners are losing. If time is delayed for the start of the season and we miss a game or two because we can't get back to work the reason why we might miss a week or two is for a 48-day training camp which is what was agreed

upon by the joint medical committee and now the nfl is kind of backing away from that that's three weeks of phase one 10 days of phase two that into kind of this integration right and that really does not leave enough time to play preseason games or really start the regular season on time. We know the NFL has kind of scheduled things that could chop up the first two weeks of the season. But here's why we lose in this situation. And I know that we assume the risk by playing.

So that definitely, I'm kind of throwing that out. Like we know that's the case. Let's assume everyone's going to be healthy. It's bad to assume that, but nonetheless, let's just throw the health out for a second. If we miss two weeks of the season, the owners will be fine. They're billionaires. They'll be fine.

Guess who's not making that money back? Us, the NFL players. We're not making that money back. When the cap goes down next year, guess who suffers? We suffer, right? We suffer. The NFLPA had the option to come in two weeks early that would have been monday it would have been monday and they said no they said no and look i get it like

if i was playing when i would have come in two weeks early no but this two-week ramp-up period could have started being negotiated memorial weekend let's say a little later than that maybe middle june you could have come in july it would have been july what would have been july 13th you do a two-week kind of ota period you're in four days a week four hours a day you're doing testing kind of getting back in the swing things getting used to social distancing you start training camp you have another week of ramp up period then you start practicing a little bit and you get those practices in and you start the season on time look pre-season whatever if they want to play they don't want to play it more power to them Then you start practicing a little bit and you get those practices in and you start the season on time.

Look, preseason, whatever. If they want to play, they don't want to play it. More power to them. I mean, there's three reasons why they wouldn't play the preseason. I think all are wrapped into them, which is obviously fearful of getting sick. Secondly, body's not ready in three. Why play if we don't have to play? All right. Those are the three reasons that they're not doing it.

Again, if I was a player, I would be on the side of not playing the preseason either. But I'm sitting back now looking at this as a fan of the game, as a former player. Someone's like, look, guys, we should have came in two weeks early and kind of had this process now. Instead of trying to do it July 28th. Because July 28th, let's say that everything gets done July 28th, you're going to show up, you're going to have multiple players

test positive for COVID on the first day of this ramp-up period. And so the way their progress getting on the field even longer. So I just, I don't know if we played this quite right. I appreciate the health and safety part of this as well. I hope that they're looking at the possibility of how they could be affected as far as how you get sick, the viral load, what could happen to your body. I agree looking off every corner. But also there's something here

that we'll end this conversation with real quick, is there's still so much unknown. Davis Cantor, an agent who represents numerous players, said this, the upshot of everything that's gone on thus far is that no one knows anything. There's no clear line of information about what's going to happen, he said.

What happens on these conference calls, conference calls between the players and the union, is one question leads to 50 more questions. The players don't know the answers. The agents don't know the answers. The union doesn't know the answers. So no one knows much right now. I'm hoping we get to a better place.

But I do think there has to be a little bit of give from the players. Like you might enter camp with not everything completely buttoned up. And I'm not sure you should do that. I just don't know if you can expect there to have answers to all your questions before you go back to play. If you go back late, you're going to start late and you're going to lose money. And if that's okay, fine.

Look, when I was playing, if I would have taken two less weeks to pay to make sure I was healthy, I probably would have done it. Look, when I was playing, if I would have taken two less weeks to pay to make sure I was healthy, probably would have done it. But I hope we understand that this is a distinct possibility if you're a player. Went with this on this topic. Justin Pugh, longtime NFL player, played with him in New York. He's with the Cardinals now.

I said to all my NFL brothers, I said this on Twitter, at Justin Pugh, approach the season with your money as if it may be canceled. Prepare for the worst case scenario. We may get through a few weeks and have to cancel. No one knows what's to come. Don't get caught being naive. The virus is real. That's it right there, right?

Like you have to prepare. You're going to miss some games or they miss the season, but I hope the players get back. We're making slow progress. Remember, deadlines per actions. July 28th is the deadline, right? When camp starts for the full team. Rookies report very soon.

Ain't going to happen. Not going to happen. Still a lot to do. All right, let's move on to a favorite subject of mine. Running backs in the NFL. Let me preface this by saying, I played with Adrian Peterson, 2012. Okay? He had 2,000 whatever yards. Nine yards away from the all-time record.

I played with Jamal Charles, who is the number one all-time leader in yards per carry NFL history. Still is. 5.5. He's unbelievable. I played with Jonathan Stewart and D'Angelo Williams. Double trouble. All right. 2009 set the record, still the record for the first tandem to have 1100 yards each in a season never happened before still does not happen again so i know the value of running backs they made my career i get it i get it but guess what you can't pay him can't pay him the titans extended derrick henry the franchise deadline and the titans my opinion, had bungled the entire offseason. They bungled it. Ryan Tannehill had an eight-game stretch, ten-game stretch. He was out of this world.

Much better than ever in his career. The Titans gave him a three-year deal for $91 million. The way the deal breaks down, for all the people that don't understand the way contracts work, I'll make it very clear the way the deal breaks down it's either one year deal you pay two okay the way the contract is set up because of the bonuses because of the guaranteed money or he plays three years because his 2022 contract gets guaranteed in the fifth day of the 2021 league year. Okay? So you paid him a ton of money for a guy that probably is not winning your Super Bowl. And even if he is average, average doesn't solidify that contract.

It doesn't make sense for that contract. But you paid him. I get it. I get paying him. I sort of get it. Paying Darren Henry makes no sense. Here's why. The first eight weeks of last season, he ranked

34th in yards per carry, 11th in broken tackles per carry, 8th in yards after contact per attempt, 9th in rushing yards, and 9th in rushing touchdowns. Then Ryan Tannehill became the quarterback. Started throwing the ball deep. Started hitting long touchdowns, long play action passes, spraying the field out. And guess what? Derrick Henry's running wild now. So is that because of Derrick Henry or because of Ryan Tannehill and defense is playing for Tannehill?

I said this at the time. I will not back out of this. I watched the film. New England-Tennessee playoff game, wild card round. New England played two high safeties. Two high safeties equals run the ball, right? Only in the box and tessie ran the ball they scored on two of nine possessions on offense that's not good it's not good 182 yards who cares they didn't score points the point is scoring points so we've seen these contracts not work out. Has Zeke Elliott worked out yet?

It's still a first year, but has it worked out? Did Todd Gurley work out? Did David Johnson work out? Did DeMarco Murray seven years ago work out? The Titans paid Chris Johnson a bunch of money, how'd that work out? Christian McCaffrey's not going to work out. We went over this before.

Highest receiving yards games on all losses, blowout losses, mind you. So we continue to see that these don't pay off and teams continue to do it. Derrick Henry's the exception. He's the exception, guys. He's the exception. And I want to make it very clear.

I don't root against players getting paid. I'm very happy Derrick Henry got paid. Supremely happy Derrick Henry got paid. Every player should get as much money as they can get and get life-changing money and get all your due in the NFL.

But I look at this from kind of a front office angle. I'm not a player anymore. I'm a former player. But I look at this as a team building. And what would I do if I'm running a team?

Because we all think about this, right? We all run a fantasy team. We run a team in our our head we yell at our front office for not doing the right things our favorite teams we all want to play gm but the data is showing that that running backs are not very valuable in this game anymore they're not the niners last year had a high paid running back room that's what the fullback was making four million a year that paid jared mckinnon two years ago he played zero snaps the liners went with undrafted free agent undrafted free agent tevin coleman making a million dollars the chiefs damian williams like you don't have to have these high priced running backs to get production on offense this

is a passing league and the titans will come and go as Ryan Tannehill comes and goes. Plain and simple. And it hurts me to say this because I love the run game. I love running backs. They made my career. But to be obtuse, just watched Shawshank Redemption, by the way. Fantastic movie. My favorite movie ever.

Why are you being so obtuse? Goes to the hole for two months. So you'd be obtuse i'd be obtuse i'd have to go to the hole for two months if i kept ignoring the data that's right in front of me that shows all the data about running backs and the value epa expected points average per play how they just not, they don't add up to victories. Oh, I forgot, leave it on Bell, by the way. Leave it on Bell. Thank you, Zuri,

for including all the notes in there. I just, I just, I didn't even look at that one. And then look at next year, by the way. Next year, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook, James Conner,

Phillip Lindsay. Out. Out on all of them. It's harsh. I get it. It's not fun. It's not fun to talk about. It sucks. It's harsh. I get it. It's not fun. It's not fun to talk about. It sucks. It's harsh.

But... All right, let's move on to Dak Prescott and Dallas Cowboys. Did not get a deal done for the franchise tag. It's very simple here. Dallas offered him a five-year deal for between 33 and 34 35 million like 110 guaranteed i believe and dak prescott won a four-year deal that seems very clear as to be the reason why this didn't get done so was that was the the number of years on this so if you look at the franchise tag the next two years let let's say Dak plays under $70 million.

I get what he's doing, right? He's just trying to maximize himself, get himself to franchisee again, and he's holding firm to his principles. The Cowboys bungled this 100%. It's all in the Cowboys. Should have prioritized paying him two years ago. They paid Zeke and Jaden Smith and guys that, again, not valuable to winning. Off the ball linebacker.

Jaden Smith's great. Great story. But Zeke Elliott is not going to help you win games like Dak Prescott is. So the Cowboys and Dak did not work out a deal. Over one year on the deal. My conclusion has been this from the beginning. From February, I believe. The first time I wrote this is for SB Nation.

RIP SB Nation. I'm not sure it's going to be the back football starts again. Feel bad for those people I worked with. They're fantastic. I had a great time working there. So this situation screamed to me, the Washington football team and Cousins. Now, different situations because that one,

there was a lot of contention between the sides. No one really wanted to sign a long-term contract there. I think Dak and Dallas sort of did a little bit. But there are two reasons why I think this never got to be done. One is that the Cowboys just aren't 100% in on Dak. They're not. They're not. It's okay. They don't have to be. Because we see all the time that teams break their principles to sign the quarterback they want. The Chiefs signed Poundless to a 12-year deal right so cowboys can break their principle of signing players to five-year deals essentially six-year deals if you include their rookie contract for their quarterback right you have guaranteed security

for four years under a number you know what he's making each and every year you know you have your quarterback now now you can't play him past one year unless you play in a franchise up next year. The Cowboys have lost money in this, but I believe it's because they're not 100% sold on Dak. I don't know the reasons why. I can't tell you why. Because Dak's a good football player.

Can he win a Super Bowl? I'm not quite sure. But he gets you close, I think. And they're just not 100% sold on him. The dead giveaway, number two, by the way, the dead giveaway for me about how they're not totally sold on him. And everyone thinks this is crazy for me to say, but it's 100% accurate.

When Mike McCarthy got the job, the old Green Bay Packers head coach, it was reported, and he said this, he did not call Dak Prescott for over a week, over a week after getting the job. That to me is bs that to me shows me that mike doesn't want that to be his quarterback for long term how do you not call your franchise quarterback the guy you're primarily brought in to coach to to teach. You don't call him for one week. One week.

You can't find five minutes in the car, in your hotel. Five minutes, call your franchise quarterback. Matt Rule signed with the Panthers here in Charlotte. Everyone who knew Cam was gone called Cam anyways the first day he got the job. You call your franchise quarterback right away. Do you not think part of the interview process was him in Jerry Jones' house talking to Jerry about what he's going to do with Dak Prescott? It had to be part of the conversation.

A little sleepover, milk and cookies at night, talking about Dak Prescott, maybe smoking a cigar, some whiskey, Stephen Jones, Jerry Jones, Mike McCarthy, talking about Dak. That just tells me they're McCarthy. Talk about Dak. That just tells me they're not all in on Dak. And maybe it's because McCarthy wants to see him a year in his system.

Maybe then he fits his system, which he sort of, I don't know, does. So I don't know the reason why, but I saw this coming a mile away. I told you it was going to happen. Cowboys fan told me I sucked. So Titans fans tell me I suck. I ended up being right. Make you a smart football fan. I'm right a lot more than I'm wrong.

I'm big picture stuff like this. Might be wrong picking a game every now and then, right? It's hard to gamble, hard to get them right. But big picture NFL stuff, man, I'm on it, okay? We've seen it all the time. All right, let's end today with two things. The NCAA issues guidelines for COVID-19. Where you been, NCAA? Where you been?

NCAA swoops in, issues guidelines that aren't even requirements. Aren't even requirements. NCAA has said, we don't want to be part of this, and now they're coming back and trying to be part of this. And, I mean, simple NCAA to just basically abdicate duty when duty is needed and not actually do anything. So their protocols, once a week testing, 14 day isolation for positive, mandatory 14 day quarantine for contacts, details on game season cancellations. The one thing that strikes me here, mandatory 14 day quarantine for contacts. Details on game season cancellations. The one thing that strikes me here. Mandatory 14-day quarantine for contacts.

That could shut down your entire team. That will not be a protocol that is used in college football. Because that will shut down your whole team. Shut down your whole team. So, thank you for coming to the party, NCAA. This is the exact reason why conferences are on their own on my pac-12 show we talked to athletic director cal asked him basically like are you taking guys from ncaa or your conference and he said the nicest way possible from the

conference that's why conference only schedule is happening guys you can control your testing your protocols once a week is not a time to test i believe they also said you have to test 72 hours out before competition what happens this is one of those go back to when i talk about davis the davis canter quote about david canter i should say quote about not knowing anything and just asking more questions what happens if you test someone 72 hours out the results just don't come They just don't come back on time. We're seeing lags in testing. Why would any, I know the money's involved here,

but why would it be any different than, you know, than it would, you know, for anyone else, right? I mean, these labs are backed up. They're backed up. If you can't like test on campus, you have to send it out. LabCorp, whoever else, Quest Diagnostics, send it out. What if it doesn't come back in time to play these are all those questions you can't answer we don't i don't there's no answer for that i guess the player doesn't play i guess i mean i wish i gave you a great answer but that appears to be what could happen at sometimes i mean look this is a very

different example but i got an antibody test on monday they told me to get back in two days they're like oh we have a delay we're gonna get back to you on time delays everywhere in testing and this is something that i got to worry about um and it's uh it's yeah i um i'm more and more concerned about NCAA season happening. I just, there's so many moving parts. So many moving parts. Well, I hope College Football is back. I hope, I don't want to be Debbie Downer, but I hope it's back.

I really do. That would be, obviously I want it back. It's my job. I'd love to have it back. So I hope it happens. I'm just, it's so many moving parts. I'm just not sure it back um so i hope it happens i'm just it's so many moving parts i'm just not sure it will but i hope it does let's be uh let's be positive still i hope it is all right guys thank you for sticking with me today really appreciate it have a great weekend rate review subscribe we have some fun changes the podcast coming up we have just short smart of

you 2.0 it's coming up soon well that's all have Just Short and Smart on YouTube 2.0. It's coming up soon. We'll announce all the details. Still going to hear me. Still going to hear Gabe. We have a lot more guests. It's a lot more fun. I promise.

All right, guys. Have a great weekend. Talk to you on Monday.