Global News Podcast - Germany election: exit polls say conservatives head for victory

Episode Date: February 24, 2025

Friedrich Merz is set to become Germany's next chancellor, as exit polls show his centre-right grouping has won the general election. The far-right AfD appears to have come second.

This is the Global News Podcast from the BBC World Service. I'm Bernadette Keough and in the early hours of Monday 24th February these are our main stories. Friedrich Metz is in pole position to become Germany's next Chancellor as exit polls show his centre-right grouping has won the general election. The far-right AFD appears to have come second. Vladimir Zelensky has told reporters he'd be willing to give up his presidency if it would help bring peace to Ukraine. Tens of thousands of mourners in Lebanon have taken

part in the funeral of the late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Also in this podcast, the Sudanese army says it's made another significant advance against its rivals and... She was smoking like a trooper. She had two cigarettes going on either side of her. I was very intimidated by her and also with myself, my voice was a little bit higher and I listened to it and I think, oh lord. The BBC's veteran film correspondent remembers interviewing Bette Davis. Exit polls from Germany's snap general election suggest the conservative Christian Democrats have won with about 30% of the vote. The far-right, alternative for Germany, appears to have

come second with around 20%, its highest national share ever. If confirmed, the figures are in line with polling before the election. Speaking afterwards, Friedrich Mertz promised to waste no time during negotiations to form the next government, but he's made clear that it will be without the AFD. Now we will talk to each other and the main thing is to re-establish a government in Germany that is capable of acting as quickly as possible with a good parliamentary majority. Because, dear friends, the world out there is not waiting for us and it is not waiting for lengthy coalition talks and negotiations.

We need to be able to act quickly again so that we can do the right thing at home, so that we are present in Europe again and so that the world realises that Germany is once more reliably governed. The Social Democrat Party, led by Olaf Scholz is predicted to have had its worst-ever result at 16.5 percent. Speaking after the exit poll he said he was realistic about the scale of the potential defeat. This is a bitter election result for the SDP. It is an election defeat. I think that must be stated clearly and unambiguously at the outset. For me, it is also very important

to say that this is the result from which we must move forward together. The anti-immigration far-right AFD welcomed the result. Addressing supporters at the party's headquarters in Berlin, the co-leader Alice Weidel said it was an important moment. We have achieved a historic result. We've never been stronger in government. We've become the second strongest force as the alternative for Germany and we have now firmly established ourselves as a people's party. for Germany and we have now firmly established ourselves as a people's party.

James Kumarasamy spoke to the BBC's Jessica Parker at the headquarters of the Christian Democrats. Just in the room beyond where I am at the moment there is some loud music playing, a band going, people are drinking beer and sipping German sparkling wine, So in that way it's pretty cheery and when those exit polls first dropped there were cheers and applause but I think there is also a bit of disappointment that they don't seem to have done better than the exit polls are so far suggesting. I think there have been hopes of being at 30 or above 30 percent so a little bit of disappointment there but also you know they are a party that looks like it will now lead the next coalition government so in that sense they're cheerful.

But unclear at this point whether that coalition will be a two party one or will have to involve three parties. Yeah and Mr Mertz, Friedrich Mertz the leader of the CDU, very clear he wants it to be a two party coalition for the obvious reason that it is much easier to negotiate a coalition deal and then govern the country. We have seen that because of Olaf Scholz's three-way coalition, which of course collapsed. What we are looking out for now is whether these smaller parties actually make it into the Bundestag. So, Sarajevo, Argenknecht,V, the FDP as well, they look like they may well crash out because you have to reach this 5% threshold.

So I think people are waiting to see how those numbers shake down because if they don't make it in, then the seats kind of formations change. So all eyes on those numbers overnight and Friedrich Merz will then want to get to work with those negotiations. Yeah, very briefly, a sizable AFD vote. You mentioned some of the other parties. The parties on the populist left have also done perhaps better than expected.

What does it all tell us, do you think? Yeah, Dylinka having a bit of a late surge there, the left party. Definitely people I speak to, and the results bear this out, suggest that more people are moving to the left or to the right. Certainly people I've spoken to suggest that they've seen that within their friendship groups as well,

but for Alternativa for Deutschland, practically doubling their result from the last election. So they're pretty ecstatic in that sense, but as you were mentioning, they won't get into power because other parties won't work with them. But they're seeing this as a stepping stone to the next election. They certainly have their eye on 2029. Jessica Parker, Hio Funke is an expert on the next election, they certainly have their eye on 2029.

Jessica Parker, Hio Funke is an expert on the AFD who studies youth movements. James Kumarasamy asked him what he made of the AFD's results. AFD has had a big success but it's only 20. Only 20? That's double the previous. Only 20 because they expected more and they have a threshold in the German population consciousness. The German majority of 75 to 80 percent according to surveys don't want to have right-wing extremists, clear racist party in power. How can you be so sure they've reached their ceiling when they have advanced considerably from the last general election? This is because three factors were against the Democratic parties, especially the Ample coalition parties. They didn't do a good job. Furthermore, there is a multifaceted

crisis in economics, in inflation and having still the Ukrainian war. And so we have an influx for migrants. And the AFD is using this migrant issue as a kind of scapegoat that is responsible to their statement for all the problems we have. And they want to have a different country. They are clear-cut, racist, right-wing, revolutionary party. This is the reason why they won't have a coalition. I come back to the point that more and more Germans are voting for them, even if you think they have almost reached the ceiling. And given that the other parties are doing worse than them,

can they realistically be kept out of power, even if they are continuing to be second? Yes, you know, on the one hand we have democratic votes and they have a say in the elections, on the other hand there are perceptions in the democratic parties not to cooperate with the undemocratic party. This is an undemocratic party although chosen by the electorate. Well that's the catch-22 isn't it? They have been democratically given around 20% of the vote. Yes. So clearly Germans and

perhaps more more younger Germans it would seem have been deciding that they want them as someone who is not of the establishment? Yes, but this goes to that party or to that party. Nineteen percent according to this election from the youngest grouping are voting for the AFD. So it's the average of those who are voting for the AFD. It's not more. Quite the contrary. Now in this election 27% went to a democratic left party, the leftist, because of social issues and because of fighting against the racism of the AFD. Hi O'Fonker. On the eve of the third anniversary of Russia's full invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky

has said he's willing to give up the presidency of Ukraine if it would help bring peace to his country and speed up admission to NATO. But he told a news conference in Kyiv that he wasn't prepared to pay any price for peace. Our Ukraine correspondent James Waterhouse was there and sent this report. President Zelensky appeared relaxed as he faced questions from the world's media. The subject matter though was far more business-like, with topics covering his problematic relationship with Donald Trump and what it meant for European security. He also said this when asked whether he'd step down to achieve peace. If to achieve peace you really need me to give up my post, I am ready.

I can trade it for NATO, if there are such conditions. I'm focused on Ukraine's security today, not in 20 years. I'm not going to be in power for decades. On the White House's demands that it gets access to billions of dollars worth of Ukraine's natural minerals in exchange for the military aid it's provided to date and could in the future, Mr Zelensky says America's help so far have been agreed grants, not loans. He said he wouldn't agree to a security deal which, in his words, would be paid off by generation after generation.

He is meeting Western leaders tomorrow, some in person and some online, as they work out how to provide a post-war security where America won't. If Ukraine's leader rejects a Donald Trump-shaped peace proposal he doesn't agree with, as he suggested today, then it would have lasting consequences for the course of this war. James Waterhouse My colleague, Julian Warica, has been speaking to a 23-year-old Ukrainian soldier Ivan, who signed up to fight on day one of the full-scale war and is now serving

on the Eastern Front. I'm a soldier for three years right now. So I just got used to the position. I don't know how to describe it. Just a routine, just a job. I live actually underground and eat everything that a normal human eats every day. I don't feel uncomfortable right now. Which will surprise so many people, because here you are, so young, fighting for three years. You've just described having to live underground, yet you don't feel uncomfortable just now. Yeah, I don't know what to say additionally. But if I'd said to you when you were, say, 16 years old, this is what the next five years would be like, you wouldn't have begun to imagine that, would you?

Actually, I could imagine that, taking into consideration that the war started in 2014 and I had some thoughts that it may start again and that I'm going to take part in defending the country. That's interesting. So even as a teenager, because of that first Russian action in 2014 in Crimea and the East before the full-scale invasion three years ago you were already beginning to think you might have to serve your country? Yeah it's not because of a big wish but I needed to do this because because else my house would be destroyed, my family could possibly be killed,

so I had no other way. And you remain as determined as ever to continue by the sounds of it? Maybe not as at the beginning. I'm tired like most of the people here, but we have no other way. What about the politics of this? I was thinking, for example, of the impact that the phone conversation between President Trump and President Putin has had on you and others around you. I think that America's got its own interests in how this war must end. There is a big possibility that the American aid can stop. Well, we'll try to fight without it.

It's going to be hard, but what else do we have to do? Ukrainian soldier Ivan speaking to Julian Warica. Still to come, the Vatican says the Pope remains in a critical condition. We get an update. There were extraordinary scenes in Beirut on Sunday morning when, in a defiant show of strength, tens of thousands of people packed into a stadium in Lebanon's capital for the funeral of Hassan Nasrallah, who led Hezbollah for more than 30 years until he was assassinated by Israel five months ago. Many were heard declaring, we follow your steps, Nasrallah.

We are the Nasrallah. We are the Nasrallah. We are the Nasrallah. We are the Nasrallah. Fighter jets from Israel flew overhead. The country's defence minister, Israel Katz, said they were sent as a clear message to anyone who threatens the Jewish state.

I heard more from our correspondent in Beirut, Lina Sinjab. In the early hours of the morning, people started pouring into the streets, heading to the stadium. Thousands have gathered from Lebanon, from Beirut, from south of Lebanon, all Hezbollah supporters of the late leader Nasrallah, but also there were many who came from abroad, mainly from Iran and Iraq, in show of support to the late leader, but also in sending a message of defiance that this group will not deter and that it will continue with support for resistance and it will continue with the path that Nasrallah have paved for this group over the past 30 years.

And it wasn't just Hassan Nasrallah's funeral but his successors as well? His successor also was assassinated in another airstrike by the Israelis, Hisham Safiyeddin. So these are the two figures that were buried today. They were bid farewell from their supporters but mainly the focus was on the late leader. There farewell from their supporters, but mainly the focus was on the late leader. There were several speeches taking place, but mainly also by the new leader of Hezbollah, who is Naeem Qassem, who gave a televised message from an unknown location, a message of defiance and support, and vowing that resistance will continue and that the group will continue despite all the

blow to its power that they took over the two-month war and the attacks by the Israelis. Well, clearly Hezbollah can still mobilise its supporters. But how weakened has it been, Lina, not just by the war in Israel but by a change of leadership in Syria? Well, it's clearly the big blow to Hezbollah. Thousands of its supporters first were targeted by the pager attack, then leadership were killed with its top leader. Weapons have been destroyed. The supply routes from Syria and Iraq were also blocked. And as you rightly said, the change of leadership in Syria Syria that's against Hezbollah cutting all the supply routes, cutting even the economic routes for them they use to fuel on the

Capitagons so that's all a big blow to Hezbollah and in fact regional changes is sending clear message that Lebanon should be away from any hostile activities towards Israel and new leadership in Lebanon itself should be away from Hezbollah. Lina Sinjab, Sudan's army says it has ended the rapid support forces nearly two-year siege of El Obaid, the strategic capital of North Kordofan. On Saturday, the RSF paramilitaries and allied groups signed a charter to form a rival administration in rebel-held areas, a move condemned by Sudan's foreign minister. Our Africa Regional Editor Richard Kagoy reports.

There was jubilation on the streets of El Obaid as Sudanese soldiers marched into the city. A military spokesman, Nabil Abdullah, confirmed the gains, saying army forces had destroyed RSF units. El Obaid is a strategic hub connecting Khartoum to Darfur where the RSF has gained ground. Analysts are calling this operation a significant victory for the army, which has been making steady advances in recent weeks. This triumph comes amid a 22-month conflict that has fractured Sudan. The army now controls the north and east, while the RSF holds sway over much of Dufour and parts of the south. The fight for control has displaced millions and left thousands dead.

Richard Kigoy. In its latest update on the Pope's health, the Vatican says the 88-year-old remains in a critical condition but hasn't had any further respiratory attacks. Pope Francis is spending a 10th night in hospital in Rome where he's being treated for double pneumonia. On Saturday, a statement said his condition had worsened and he'd been given oxygen as well as blood transfusions. Our correspondent Sarah Rainsford is at the Vatican. It is still, I think, very troubling for his doctors, certainly still troubling for Vatican officials here, but somewhat, I won't say improved, but somewhat less stark than the

quite shocking picture that there was yesterday, which certainly I think rattled many people here in Rome who heard that the Pope had had what was described as a respiratory crisis and that he'd had blood transfusion. So we've got a little more detail on that just now. the Pope had had what was described as a respiratory crisis and that he'd had blood transfusion. So we've got a little more detail on that just now. We understand that the Pope had two units of blood and that there was some improvement in what had been described as some anemia. So that is slightly improved. But the sort of novelty, I guess, in this kind of clinical picture is that he has some kidney problems, a mild renal insufficiency,

but they're saying that is under control. I think overall, stepping back from the details, it is clearly still a critical picture. The Pope did go to mass today on Sunday up on the 10th floor apartment where he is being cared for in the hospital here in Rome. He, we're told, is not entirely bed ridden. He still does sit in his armchair. he is still alert, he is still talking but clearly he's very very unwell and his doctors are still working with him very closely and hoping that the treatment that they're giving him can begin to show some results. Sarah Rainsford. The film awards season is well underway as we record this podcast the Screen Actors Guild

Awards are about to start and in a week's time Hollywood will be hosting the Oscars. Tom Brook has been the BBC's film correspondent since the early 1980s and has been listening back to some of the thousands of interviews he's done over the years with famous film stars, starting with Bette Davis. I visited her when she was shooting The Whales of August, which was her penultimate film. And she sat down and she had a very imperious manner. I mean, the way she could look at you made you feel like you were, well, vermin or something. The thing that I remember is she was smoking like a trooper. She had two cigarettes going on either side of her during the interview and she fumbled for a third one. I was very intimidated by her.

And also with myself, my voice was a little bit higher and I listened to it and I think, oh Lord, this woman, she was really tough to deal with. Miss Davis, you haven't done a theatrical film for quite a long time. What was it that attracted you to this particular picture? The same thing that attracts me to any picture, I liked it and it's a long time. What was it that attracted you to this particular picture? The same thing that attracts me to any picture I liked it and it's a good script. That's the reason why you accept something.

What is it you like about the script? Oh that's, you're asking me sort of to tell the plot and all. I just like the script. I was a bit shell-shocked after it. I spoke to a production assistant. I said, how did I do? And they said to me, well, she made mincemeat out of you. And I was, oh, wow, that's pretty bad. But she was the real thing. It was something very authentic about her.

And the thing I think about the press at that time, the kind of film, movie press, is that they loved her because she gave great quotes. I remember covering a press conference when she was really holding forth, saying how much she liked all the awards that she had won. She won two Oscars in her life. They are shined weekly, they're in full display. I have no modesty about it at all. It represents blood, sweat and tears. You got hold of James Cagney. This was towards the end of his career.

And I went into the room and he was a diminished figure. He was in a wheelchair. He was, I would say, three quarters coherent. I recorded about half an hour with him. We edited it down. And it was a memorable encounter. I never accepted myself as a hero. Just an actor, that's all. a memorable encounter. the best film that you've ever made? Yankee Doodle. It had everything. A lot of hoofing to do.

But then that was all part of my background. So here you do it. I do remember being surprised by what an amazing hoover, what an amazing dancer he actually was, James Cagney. This business of interviewing stars at junkets they're called, is when the film studios allow

access under very controlled circumstances, very controlled time to the stars. And one of the first times you met Tom Cruise was at one of these junkets and you tried, I think, to get some news out of Cruise. I went to interview him for the film Top Gun. Some people charged the film with really glorifying combat. And I put that to Tom Cruise and he got a wee bit snippy. Not terribly, but a wee bit snippy. If we wanted to make a war film or a film that glorifies combat, we would have been blowing people away from the beginning to the end.

It's a film about character and essentially the end-mig battle, the adversary's faceless, nameless, the opponent, is symbolic of the character and his conflict. Recently, I think you tracked down Ethan Hawke and this was at the Berlin Festival in the last few days and he's in the middle of doing what, 30 interviews a day and you try and ask him to reflect on the process. What does he say? Well yes, it was actually last Tuesday at the Grand Hyatt Hotel in Berlin at the Berlin Film Festival. They were having a junket, a film actually that's pretty good called Blue Moon from Richard Linklater,

in which Ethan Hawke has a great role. The clock was ticking, I only had five minutes. He talked about the role and then I prodded him about what was it like from his point of view to participate in the junket. The second you're on a timer, our conversation becomes fake. Because we're both aware of I'm trying to say everything is in a precise way for you as possible. Anything that's inauthentic is dangerous. Because what you're talking about is dishonesty. But you seem quite authentic at this moment. Well because you went off the rails by asking me this question.

So now we're relating to each other like human beings. And so everything changes. Ethan Hawke and the BBC's film correspondent Tom Brook were speaking there to Paddy O'Connell. And that's all from us for now, but there'll be a new edition of the Global News podcast later. If you want to comment on this podcast or the topics covered in it you can send us an email. The address is

globalpodcast at bbc.co.uk. You can also find us on X at BBC World Service. Use the hashtag globalnewspod. This edition was produced by Judy Frankel and mixed by Caroline Driscoll. The editor is Karen Martin. I'm Bernadette Keough. Until next time, goodbye.