Global News Podcast - Special: Global News Ukrainecast part 2

Episode Date: March 24, 2022

A month since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we are collaborating with Ukrainecast again. We answer more of your questions.Jackie Leonard, presenter of the Global News Podcast, alongside Gabriel Gatehouse and Vitaliy Shevchenko from Ukrainecast, guide us through questions about civilian life in the country, military tactics, and the international response to the invasion. BBC chief international correspondent, Lyse Doucet, joins us from Kyiv to talk through what is happening on the ground there, and BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner, tells us the latest on the physical and information war. This episode was made by Chris Flynn. The studio director was Ash Taylor. The assistant editor was Sam Bonham.

Hello, this is the Global News Podcast from the BBC World Service, with reports and analysis from across the world. The latest news seven days a week. BBC World Service podcasts are supported by advertising. If you're hearing this, you're probably already listening to BBC's award-winning news podcasts. But did you know that you can listen to them without ads? Get current affairs podcasts like Thank you. Amazon Music with a Prime membership. Spend less time on ads and more time with BBC podcasts. It's a month since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This is another Global News Podcast UkraineCast collaboration from the BBC World Service. I'm Jackie Leonard and on the 23rd of March 2022, we are joined by Gabriel Gatehouse and Vitaly Shevchenko of the UkraineCast team,

as well as Lise Doucette, our correspondent in Kiev, who has been there throughout, and our security correspondent Frank Gardner. They will be answering your questions about what's happening in Ukraine and why, and about how the world is reacting. Hello, this is Gabriel in the studio in London. And it's Vitaly in the studio too. And hello, I'm Jackie Leonard and I'm in the studio in London as well. Welcome to another Ukrainecast special, collaborating with the Global News Podcast. Well, the last time we got together like this was just over two weeks ago, and you answered our listeners' questions about the origins of the war, the risk of nuclear conflagration, the efficacy of sanctions and the importance of China, among other things.

And at that point, the number that had left Ukraine stood at just over two million. It appeared that Kherson was the only city that had been taken by Russia. So just take us through the developments that there have been since then. I suppose the big picture, the main thing is that the Russian tactics have completely changed from this idea that they were going to do a surgical strike, take over the government, topple President Zelensky and be done with this in short order. And they have now moved to tactics which basically consist of bombing, surrounding, pummeling from the air and with artillery, blocking access to food and water. The kinds of stuff, Jackie, that we have seen the Russians do in Syria,

they're now basically bringing to bear in Ukraine. And despite all that, Kherson is still the only major city taken by Russia. But there are other places that have been taken by Russia, aren't there? Smaller ones like Melitopol, Berdyansk. And we're starting to get some insight, at least on UkraineCast, about what life is like in some of those towns and cities that have been occupied by Russian forces. We spoke the other day on UkraineCast to somebody who was living in Novokhrovka, which is a smallish town.

Is it Vitaly? It's very small outside Kherson, yeah. And he was painting this interesting picture about Russian soldiers standing there. And his interpretation was that they were pretty shocked by the situation they'd found on the ground. They'd been sent there, told they were going to be fighting Nazis and fascists, and that the Ukrainian population generally would welcome them. And in fact, they found something very different. And his interpretation with these young guys,

these young Russian soldiers were pretty shocked and were just kind of standing there, this kind of mute presence in the centre of the city. Well, today we will again be responding to listeners' questions. You've been asking about military tactics, you've been asking about how the world is responding and what might prompt NATO involvement. Let's start, though, with what's going on right now, what's happening on the

ground. Let's hear about life in Ukraine and how it's changed. And I hope we can do that with Lise Doucette, who is the BBC's chief international correspondent. She is in Ukraine at the moment. Hello, Lise. Good morning. Good morning from the capital of Ukraine. And I gather that you've been out and about today. What's going on in Kiev today? Yes, there are dreadful moments in war and there are moments of defiance in war. And you get both here in Kiev.

And indeed, you get both across cities and towns across this country. None of them spared some part of this Russian onslaught. So today, finally, the winter temperatures seem to be going away. It's a bright, sunny day outside. I just walked down the cobbled streets in the heart of the city, the cobbled lane, which leads from the magnificent St. Sophia's Cathedral to the equally magnificent St. Michael's. And there were people

walking their dogs. I stopped by to see a soldier at a checkpost, Andre, who was taking time in this lull in the centre of the city to do some sewing. He was stitching up his flak jacket. And the reason why I was heading in that direction with my colleagues was to attend a press conference in the park next to St. Michael's Monastery.

And there, by the statue of St. Michael, the warrior saint who is the patron saint and the protector of Kiev, the mayor of this city, Vitaly Klitschko, and his brother Vladimir, both of them former champion boxers, they often appear together during this war, to send out a defiant message against, it has to be said, the constant boom of Russian artillery on the outskirts of this city, to say that Russia still had this city in its sights, but that this was a war that they would continue to fight and that they would win. I can almost smell the spring that you described there, Lise, having lived in Kiev myself for a number of years, when the snow melts and the leaves start coming out those first days. It's incredible. Do people there have any sense of whether the change in seasons and the change

in weather might result in some kind of shift in tides of this war? Yes, I mean, that's an important question to ask, because as we often say in our reporting, weather does have a huge impact in the war. Clear days mean you can have a better eye from satellite imagery, from drones about what is happening on the ground. We heard repeatedly about how Russian armored convoys, which had come in the snow, then were literally getting stuck in the mud. We had heard yesterday extraordinary story about Russian soldiers having to go home because they were getting frostbite. They didn't have the right equipment to keep them warm. I don't think, though, it will dent the kind of fighting spirit that we see among the Ukrainians.

And as you know, Gabriel, often journalists, generals, politicians say, well, why doesn't Ukraine give up, spare the country the kind of deprivation and devastation of Mariupol, you know, end it now. And Vitaly Klitschko was asked about that today. And, you know, he absolutely batted it away, as all Ukrainians do. I haven't met a single person, and I'm sure you haven't interviewed a single person, who said that they were ready to give up. And he said, you know, to use that phrase that everyone asks, World War III, it's already here, you know,

telling European journalists who asked him questions that, you know, this is your war as well as ours. And, Lise, it's really difficult for those of us who aren't there to imagine what all of this feels like for the civilian population. Just some numbers here. The UN High Commission of Refugees says 10 million people have now fled their homes, 3.5 million crossing into neighbouring countries, the rest internally displaced.

But in the areas outside Mariupol, Kharkiv, Sumy, Khernehiv, what is going on? Let's get a question from Jack in Worcester in the UK. To what extent is normality continuing in the cities that Russia has invaded or where shelling is taking place? Like, are people going about their work still? Are people travelling on the underground? Are shops still open? Or, you know, has everything been shut and everyone's sort of hunkered down in their houses or apartments?

So, Lise, what's the answer for Jack? I'm really glad Jack asked that question because I didn't want my first remarks to give the impression that somehow it was a lovely spring day and all was forgotten. with possibly what was one of the noisiest mornings, sustained small arms fire, sustained artillery fire, like rolling thunder on the not too distant horizon. Perhaps you look for whatever can lift your spirits. So, yes, the weather lifts your spirits. But even when there is not a single person, not a single corner of this country, which has been left untouched by war. Nothing is normal. Nothing is the same. Ukraine is a different country now. Ukrainians are different.

But I had such an interesting conversation with some colleagues from a Ukrainian television station this morning. And I was speaking to Alessia and she's the correspondent for one of the Ukrainian television channels and I expressed, I said, I'm really sorry about what's happening and she said, well, this is our real independence and when a nation is born, it has to be a big moment.

It's like giving birth, she said. It can be bloody, but something beautiful comes out of it. Everyone has a story of war. Some of them are ones where the rituals and rhythms of life have shifted. Others, they have completely shattered. The heartbreaking stories of the survivors of Mariupol who came out saying, my house is gone, my street has been obliterated, my city, my dear city of Mariupol has been wiped off the map. Do you think that most people who wanted to leave Kiev, let's say Kiev, because you're there, have already done so, and the people who remain

are the ones who've decided to stick it out? Or do you think there are still people who are trying to get out of there? Yes, the mayor was asked about this today. And of course, he said the obvious, it's very hard to have any statistical certainty. But he said, about half of the population has left many of them women and children to because of course, wanting to keep the children safe. But he also said that many people have come back. He said that many of the men who took their loved ones out have come back to fight. And Lise, it's fascinating to hear you say that there are people who have left and then gone back. We had a question from a listener called Rachel in Lincolnshire in the UK about how people are managing practically,

how they're getting by. I'm a secondary school teacher fielding questions every single day in both geography and history lessons about what's going on. The question I would like to ask is whether the Ukrainians are still getting paid. They've obviously, all these people have had to leave their jobs. What's happened with their jobs? Will they be there when they get back? Are they currently getting any money whatsoever? Or did that stop the minute Putin decided to become the aggressor? The municipality is very well organized. They publish online maps showing where, what grocery stores are open, which cafes and restaurants are open,

because I have to say that the longer this goes on, where Russian forces are being kept at bay on the outskirts of the city, the mayor and other officials are urging business people, open up your cafes, open up your restaurants. It's good for economic activity. That was always President Zelensky's main concern in February when he told the West, stop talking about escalation, because he was worried about the impact it would have on the economy, on the finances. And it did have a huge impact. And now, of course, a lot of economic activity has ground to a halt. But there still is some. Even in the midst of this, it's again, these jarring images where you go down these beautiful cobbled streets past the elegant pastel-coloured buildings.

And you see the sandbags and the tyres and the soldiers and also the civilians. And then you see the municipal workers with their orange vests on cleaning the streets. You see people picking up the garbage. So sort of the normal rhythms of a city are still going on. But of course, the schools are closed. And the only information I have is from our own bunker, where I do see the children every day, and they're doing their lessons.

And I ask them about their lessons, and they show me their books. And they're studying English, and they're studying mathematics. So their parents are having to do the lessons for them. And anyone listening who has children will know that's what they did during COVID. Well, now it's either a curfew or this is life now where schools are closed. So kids are being educated by their parents. And I can say the kids that I meet, they are doing their lessons.

They're also trying to play. Whenever the sun comes out and there's no curfew, I see them on their scooters down those cobbled streets, you know, as far as their parents will let them go. But of course, they have to hasten back inside. This, it's this grasping for what's left of the life that they knew. And of course, for parents trying to give their children who are still here. And so, so, so, so many have left. Half the refugees, as we've said so many times, are children. Kids on scooters, such a universal image.

It really is. A fascinating image, a fascinating picture for us of what's going on in Kiev right now. Lise, thank you so much for talking to us. That was our Chief International Correspondent, Lise Deset in Kiev. Thanks, Lise. Nice to talk to you. Thank you. Lovely. talking to us. That was our chief international correspondent, Lise Doucette in Kiev. Thanks, Lise. Nice to talk to you. Thank you.

Lovely. I will send an email. Thank you. Bye. And by the way, you know, Ilya Pomerenko, who's the defence correspondent for the Kiev Independent, he's just tweeted hot dogs at Kiev gas stations, a grasp of good normal life for a moment. I love those hot dogs in the Kiev gas stations.

I lived off them. You mentioned it. Ilya's just tweeted that he's getting his hot dogs again. Well, that is a sign of hope. It certainly is. Blossom on the trees and hot dogs. Hot dogs of hope. Thanks, Lise.

Bye-bye. Thank you. Thank you. Lovely Lise. She's doing such an amazing job. That email she mentioned, she's apparently picked up on some shirt I wore in some TV report. She's trying to find time to email me about my sartorial choices while still reporting this war. The important things. Well, let's talk now about the conduct of the war. From quite early on, there was some surprise about the level of resistance the Russians were encountering

and how relatively little progress they were making. Since then, we have seen massive destruction in cities like Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Mariupol. But today we're being told by the Pentagon that Ukrainian soldiers are successfully reversing battlefield momentum against the invading Russian forces to actually reclaim some ground. Well, let's get more on what's going on from Frank Gardner, the BBC defence and security correspondent. So what is going on, Frank? Well, it hasn't changed a great deal in the last week, which is causing people to comment that the Russians have got themselves bogged down.

They've made quite a lot of advances in the south. Although, as you say, the Ukrainians do appear to be pushing back. I think we've got to be quite wary here that we are, of course, in the middle of not only a real war but also an information war, and both sides have a vested interest to talk up how well they or their allies are doing and how badly the other side is doing. So Russia has been very careful to try and hide the level of its casualties. For example, the only official figure that came out

was about a week into the war where they said just under 500 of their soldiers had been killed. In the last few days, a report appeared very briefly on a pro-Kremlin newspaper, Komsomolskaya Pravda, saying that around 10,000, nearly 10,000 Russian soldiers have been killed. That report quickly disappeared, and they said that they've been hacked. That's perfectly possible, but it's also possible that it's true. So when we talk about Ukrainian advances, they are very, very small on the map. The fact that they're able to do that at all, though, to retake parts of the town of Makariv, for example, just to the west of Kiev, is quite significant.

And are the Russians actually changing their tactics, changing the way that they're doing things now? Yes. I mean, their original plan, which was wildly over-optimistic, and I suspect was probably fed to President Putin by people in the intelligence agencies who told him what they wanted to hear. The original plan was, don't worry, we will make quick arm of thrust straight towards Kyiv, Kharkiv and other big cities. They will quickly capitulate. The government will flee or surrender. We'll be able to get our own pro-Kremlin government in there and it'll all be over in a matter of days. That, of course, has not happened. And President Zelensky is still there

addressing every parliament in the world, practically, as a thorn in the side to Russia. So clearly, they have had to change how they do this. And I'm afraid they have, exactly as we predicted early on in this war, that if they couldn't make progress against the big cities, they would revert to their original playbook, which is to simply stand off from a distance and pummel it with artillery, rockets, drones and missiles. And that's what they've done to Kharkiv. They've decimated large parts of that city.

It's what they're doing to Mariupol. And this is not just to flatten the city and subdue it and punish it. It's also as an example to others to say so they can say, right, look, Mariupol resisted us, we gave them a chance to surrender, they chose not to. This is what happens. Your city's in ruins. Dear Odessa, is that what you want? And in terms of what the Ukrainians can actually do about the Russian assault, time for another listener question. Is there any reason that the Ukrainian military hasn't responded by attacking any Russian bases, military bases, or political buildings

within Russia itself? Would there be any political or military reason that they would be unwise to do that? That was Keith in London. Frank, what's the answer? Well, he's right on both counts. Militarily, it doesn't make sense when they've got more than enough targets right on their doorstep. But it's more than that. They've got the high ground. They're not the aggressor here. They are the victim of a unprovoked invasion. Now, if they start crossing borders and going into Russia, that could give Russia the pretext to do who knows what. We know that there are some very nasty weapons still left in Russia's armory that they haven't used. There's speculation about chemical or nuclear weapons, but there's no need for Ukraine to cross that border.

They've got their hands full tackling the Russian forces inside their own borders. Well, one of the things that a great many listeners have asked about is at what point NATO would get involved. Obviously, any attack on a NATO member would be an attack on all. But short of that, Eric in Winnipeg in Canada sent this question. Whether it is likely or unlikely, I'm wondering if Vladimir Putin decides to use biological, chemical or nuclear weapons directly on the Ukraine, will NATO still stand fast and avoid confrontation with the Ukraine not being a NATO member? Or will they consider that a severe enough escalation that warrants some kind of intervention?

There is a very wide spectrum of difference when it comes to chemical weapons. So one end of the spectrum, you've got a very precise so-called point weapon like Novichok, the nerve agent that GRU, Russian military intelligence agents, allegedly were the ones who painted this onto the door handle of Sergei Skripal's door in Salisbury in England in 2018. He was a KGB, ex-KGB, ex-Russian intelligence services.

And that is an assassination weapon. But that allows President Biden to say Russia's got form. It's used chemical weapons before. I've not seen any evidence that they have used chemical weapons in Syria. I don't think from talking to chemical weapons experts that Russia has stocks, large stocks left of this kind of thing. What they could do, though, is they could attack industrial depots that would release toxic gas, ones inside Ukraine. So legitimate use of chlorine

for swimming pools or for cleaning products, etc. You could release a toxic cloud and then say the Ukrainians did it. On the question of whether NATO would get involved, at what point NATO would get involved short of an attack on a NATO country. The reality is, we haven't seen NATO draw any red lines, any clear red lines for Russia. You know, they drew that red line in Syria in 2013, where they said to Assad, if you use chemical weapons, that's a red line. Assad crossed the red line, and nothing happened. I spoke to a NATO defence minister last week, who said to me, look, I think we haven't had a good experience with red lines in NATO in recent years. And what he said to me was that NATO was deliberately using creative ambiguity to try to deter the Russians. I'm not sure how much that's working, but that

seems to be the policy. This is the point that the Ukrainians keep raising. What will it take for you to try and save us? How many people will have to die? And looking at the media in Ukraine, what they're saying. The fear is that, A, NATO had not expected Ukraine to last this long, and B, even if Ukraine is completely and fully conquered by Putin, NATO is prepared to accept that as long as no NATO member state is under threat. And that's a terrifying prospect for the Ukrainians. Some feel that, OK, we're giving all we have, we're trying all we can to defend our country, but ultimately we're facing a much stronger enemy. Has NATO given up on us? Well, we've had a lot of people wondering about Mr Putin's tactics, about the people who he is

surrounded by, about his state of mind. Alex from Atlanta in the USA, though, wondered this. Is it conceivable that the US, UK or NATO security force, if given the opportunity, would make an assassination attempt on Putin? Would the potential risks kind of be too catastrophic to even be considered? Under what kind of scenario could this be possible or not? Ooh, I think that would be a terrible idea. If anyone was asking me for my advice, I don't know if they are, but I think that's a really, really terrible idea. I mean, I think there will be, there might be, there might come a point, there might come a point where Russia gets so isolated

and the people in Putin's close inner circle start thinking about this. But I think the point at which the Americans start even thinking about assassinating the president of Russia, we're in a very, very, very dangerous place. And also let's have a think about who might replace President Putin. Currently there's no leader, there's no figure in Russia of similar stature or different views.

So if or when President Putin goes, there's no guarantee that whoever replaces him will be any different. I think that's absolutely key, actually, Vitaly. You've just hit the nail on the head, because if the Americans, and this is totally fantasy football, because I don't think anyone's actually talking about this, but let's say the Americans took Putin out and assassinated him,

they would get an enraged country, and Putin would be replaced by somebody who is essentially the same as Putin, right? Somebody in his inner circle. So it would be entirely counterproductive. I totally agree. I mean, that would be an act of war. It would be extremely dangerous.

And I think for people saying, well, why can't they just why can't somebody just bump him off? Be careful what you wish for, because the last thing you want is a nuclear armed country and civil unrest where there is nobody in charge. Well, there has been a lot of talk about the international response to what's going on in Ukraine. We've we've heard a lot about refugees. We've heard a lot about what Ukraine's allies can offer in terms of moral or practical support. But beyond the bordering nations, beyond NATO and the EU, what about other big players? If we can, I'd like to look at India, China, Turkey and Israel. India, for instance, has been singled out over what's been described as a failure to condemn Russian aggression. So where do they stand now? What about China's strategic partnership with Russia? We talked India, for instance, has been singled out over what's been described as a failure to condemn Russian aggression.

So where do they stand now? What about China's strategic partnership with Russia? We talked about that a little bit in the last collaboration that we did. But where are we on Putin and Xi Jinping's relationship? And could China be a mechanism for peace? What about Turkey? Turkey, NATO member, of course, it said that it was ready to host a meeting between Mr. Zelensky and the Russian President Vladimir Putin. So how significant is Turkey's role? And what about the relationship between Russia and Israel? We've had a message from Victoria in London who has been wondering about the relationship between Russia and Israel.

Were the Israelis slow to sanction Russia? How are they sanctioning the oligarchs? What's happened to them helping broker a peace deal? It all seems very surprising, she says, given the overwhelming support that Israel receives from the US in particular. And she would like an explanation, please. Let's start with you, Frank. Well, Israel could well be the location for a future peace deal. Jerusalem has been mooted as somewhere that, were it possible that President Zelensky of Ukraine were to get his wish and have a sit-down, face-to-face meeting with Vladimir Putin, that that could take place in Jerusalem. Zelensky has addressed the Israeli Knesset, the Israeli parliament.

He received a kind of mixed welcome because he made an appeal for help. Israel has been trying to broker a peace deal with limited success. He kind of overstepped the mark a bit by telling Israelis that Ukraine had played a good role helping Jews escape in the Second World War. And a number of Knesset members pointed out that actually there were plenty of Ukrainians collaborating with the Nazis, sending Jews off to the death camps. So he had a mixed reception there. China feels very uncomfortable about this. They've watched because, of course, they've got their own issue over Taiwan.

They want Taiwan back into the motherland as they see it. They don't consider it to be an independent country. They see it as a breakaway province that needs to be brought back by 2049, the centenary of the foundation of the Chinese Communist Party. And they are, I think, really quite shocked at the strength of the sanctions that the West has been able to muster. And that's bad for trade. And China likes trade. And that's a good point to bring in Max in London, who has been thinking about China's position. You often have experts and criminologists discussing Putin's strategy. Given Russia's expansionist behaviour and its remarkably poor military performance, we have seen emboldened NATO. What could this mean for the alliance in the long term? And how might it affect China?

Could we see a revival of the interventionist West? Can Taiwan and its neighbours in the South China Sea sleep a little easier? Well, we saw in the run-up to this, so late last year, Joe Biden explicitly said America will not fight in Ukraine. And he explicitly said in answer to a question about Taiwan that the US would act, respond with force to an attempt by China to reincorporate Taiwan into the Chinese fold. So I imagine that from China's point of view, they will be looking at this and thinking perhaps now is not the time to be making moves on Taiwan. I spoke to Deng Xiaoping's former interpreter last week,

a very interesting man, And I asked him about what did China learn from the collapse of the Soviet Union? And he said, China learned that great powers, empires can overreach themselves, and that the Soviet Union overreached itself. And by implication, he didn't say so. But he said that, you know, Putin was overreaching himself in Ukraine. He said China is absolutely committed to not getting itself entangled in these kind of military adventures. But as Frank said, you know, it is playing a very difficult balancing act because it has this tight strategic partnership with Russia, Xi Jinping, and President Putin met in person just before the invasion. I think it was the first in-person meeting that Vladimir Putin had had for a very long time.

He tends to like to do it over Zoom or at the very least at the end of a very long table. So China, much like India in a way, is walking this tightrope between its relations. And we can have a quick look at India because you raised it, Jackie. Almost 50% of India's arms supplies come from Russia. It's bought this Russian missile defence system, the S-400, for which, incidentally, it might get sanctioned by the US. But so the Indians are trying, much like the Chinese, not to anger either side here and being very, very equivocal with their statements,

hoping that they can kind of ride this out without kind of doing any damage to all the various interests that they have on both sides. And Frank, what about Turkey? It's a NATO member. It is a NATO member. But remember that he has closed the Bosphorus to Russian ships, except those returning to base. So it's because it controls the Bosphorus, the waterway that connects the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. And it has said that it will not allow military ships to come out of the Black Sea, Russian ones, only those that are returning to port. So it really does hold the key to the gates of the Black Sea.

And this is important for whatever the future settlement in Ukraine is, because Mariupol, which we hear a lot about, which is now this horrifically bombed city that used to be nearly half a million and is empty now, and is a smouldering ruin, that has a very major port with deep berths that was one of Ukraine's main export terminals of grain, corn, iron, steel, all of which would have to pass

by sea through Turkey. So Turkey is very important in all of this. But Turkey is trying to not to be too antagonistic to Russia because it still wants to see itself as a broker, as a peace broker, as an intermediary. Thank you for that. That was our security and defence correspondent, Frank Gardner. I think we have to let you go now. But thank you very much for talking to us. It was very good to hear from you. Thanks, Frank. Welcome. Bye bye. And that's it from us for now. Normal global news podcast service will resume later. Thank you to Gabriel Gatehouse and Vitaly Shevchenko of the Ukrainecast team, to Lise Doucette in Kiev, and our security correspondent Frank Gardner. Most of all, thank you for all of your questions. We do like to hear from you. Our email address is

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