Global News Podcast - Syria special

Episode Date: December 7, 2024

Syria's army says it's bolstering defences around the capital, Damascus, as rebels intent on overthrowing President Assad converge on the city.

This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK. If Hitler isn't defeated, it's the end of the free world. Purple Heart Warriors, listen now by searching for dramas wherever you get your BBC podcasts. You're listening to a special edition of the Global News podcast from the BBC World Service. Hello, I'm Oliver Conway. We are recording this at 18 Hours GMT on Saturday the 7th of December. Rebels in Syria are bearing down on the capital Damascus from the north and south. Government forces say they've put a strong cordon around the city, but the insurgents are reported to have closed

to within 10 kilometers and there have been protests in the suburbs. We'll ask is this the end for President Assad or can his Russian and Iranian allies save him once again? Ever since the uprising sparked by the Arab Spring nearly 14 years ago, the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has maintained his grip on power. He's faced opposition from pro-democracy activists, various jihadist groups including al-Qaeda and ISIS, and other militants. But with the help of his allies from Russia and Iran and a devastating bombing campaign, he held on. For the past few

years there's been an uneasy stalemate but now after a lightning advance by Islamist insurgents there are real questions over whether President Assad can survive. On the outskirts of the capital itself there have been reports of protests. Footage on social media of demonstrators toppling a statue of President Assad's late father Hafez in a Damascus suburb. Other videos showed portraits of the president himself being attacked and the Syrian flag being pulled down at a busy intersection just eight kilometers from the city center. Well, amid that anger from ordinary people, government forces are on the back foot in central, southern and eastern Syria.

Rebels from the south are said to be just 10 kilometers from Damascus. In the east, the Kurds took control as the authorities pulled out, but the main threat has come through the heart of the country from Islamist insurgents of the HTS group which arose out of the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda. After taking Aleppo and Hama, they are now moving into Homs, a strategic city that links the capital to the Assad-Alawite heartland on the Mediterranean coast. Before the latest, I'm joined by our Middle East correspondent, Lina Sinjab in Beirut.

Lina, tell us about the threat to Damascus. The rebels are advancing in quick pace. We're hearing reports that they're really surrounding Damascus from different parts. They certainly came from the south, from Deraa and other parts of the south, from Deraa and other parts of the south, approaching the city, something that the government in Damascus is still denying. But talking to residents in Damascus, in the capital itself, people are worried, are watching

with cautiousness. Many people are staying home. The markets, shops are closed. Syrian pound devaluated. Basic commodities are scarce. So it's really a chaotic scene and people are worried. They feel things will not go back the same at all after. But what's going to happen after, nobody knows. Some reports and some people suggesting Assad should go. Others are saying that he's staying put and he's going to defend until the last minute. And in between the two versions of the story, people are worried about violence erupting mainly by the government so that they protect their positions. Yeah, the Syrian army says it is boosting its defences around Damascus, but so far they

haven't been able to slow the advances. Certainly so, and we're also hearing reports from Homs that the rebels are advancing and Homs was like a very crucial city for the regime because they thought if they control Homs they control the highway to Damascus, they control their links to the coastal cities and if Homs falls it means that the roads are cut to the coastal sides and that's where many of the Alawite supporters of President Peshawar Assad are located.

I'm also hearing that many of the Alawites who are in Damascus are worried. Some have already fled to the coastal cities. Things are really heating up on the ground. While meetings are ongoing in Doha between the Turks, the Russians and the Iranians, there are some talks about a peace roadmap that should be followed. We're hearing some leaks that President Assad may stay for six months in power and hand over power to an interim government to be elected. But all this is hard to confirm now as we have to see what the president comes out and speak about officially to his own people, something that he

hasn't done yet. Yeah and looking at that central city of Homs that you mentioned a rebel commander say they've overrun an army camp there and a string of villages. Are government forces putting up a defense? They have been putting up some defense until this morning. I've been talking to people inside Homs, some of the Alawites family who opposed Assad but secretly and decided to stay. Homs, some of the Alawites family who opposed Assad but secretly and decided to stay. They're hearing some shooting, some fighting, sometimes sporadic artillery shelling, but they also know that the rebels have advanced. There is communication going on between Alawites outside and those who decided to stay inside. They are communicating

also with the rebels to give assurances to the Alawites who stayed. And I've also heard from them that there are a couple of towns where the rebels have entered, where there are Alawites living there, no attacks to civilians, no records of any violations against civilians from the Alawites. So things are moving so fast to be able to grasp what's going to happen next. But obviously Assad has lost many cities and the final call is actually in Damascus. What happens in Damascus will decide the fate of the coastal cities where the Alawites are based. And briefly, he was saved before by his allies Russia and Iran. Any sign of them?

That has changed. I think the whole operation started at a moment. The rebels have seized because Iran and Hezbollah are weakened, weakened in Lebanon, weakened in Syria with continuous Israeli airstrikes against their military bases, their weapons, preventing them from crossing into Lebanon and sending weapons into Lebanon. And now we've heard reports that Iranians have ordered all their non-essential personnel and families to leave. We've heard reports about them leaving via airport in Damascus and via Lebanon. Hezbollah is already weakened in Lebanon, and the few fighters who remain in Syria,

we hear a hearing report that they are in Qusayr, close to the border between Syria and Lebanon. Russia is very busy with Ukraine, but also upset with Assad that they are in Qusayr, close to the border between Syria and Lebanon. Russia is very busy with Ukraine, but also upset with Assad that they have been asking him for sitting down on the table with the Turks, and he has been refusing. So it seems that the table has changed, but we just have to wait to see what officially is going to come out as what's going to happen. Many people I speak to on the ground, they say the distance is big between what the politicians are talking about in these meetings and the reality on the ground

with the fast advancement of the rebels. Lina, many thanks indeed Lina Sinjeb from Lebanon. Well let's talk now to Mahmoud Ali Hamad from BBC Arabic. We were talking briefly about the South. Now you are from Deraa which was one of the centres of the original protest movement and that has fallen to opposition forces. What are you hearing from there? What we are hearing is that the whole province has been left to the rebels. There has been a safe corridor that ensured those forces would reach Damascus with no issues. So this is probably the easiest takeover of

a city in modern history. And are they the forces who are now pushing up towards Damascus? No, I think so far we are ignoring the fact that the borders with Jordan that's down south is quite different from what we are witnessing on the Turkish borders where there is lines of logistical support coming through the borders and the freedom of movement that the fighters there enjoy. This cannot be said about Daraa. Daraa's borders are under the direct control of the Jordanian and the coalition forces led by the United States and there's a military base in the Tanaf which is very close to Daraa province. So I think at this point the rebels in the

south are trying to stabilize the front. Maybe hoping if you think about the military objective is to link with the rebels forces coming from the north. We've heard about the takeover of the T-4 airport, a very important military airport to the Syrian regime and was to the Russian up until 2018 before they withdraw their assets from there to send to Ukraine. So that airport to the east of the capital has been taken over so now the capital is vulnerable from the north and the east.

The south now is just waiting to create that linkage where they can actually get more ammunition, more military hardware if they are ever going to have a chance of advancing into the capital. We know that the capital is not really controlled by the army itself, the traditional regular Syrian army. There are still some Iranian allied militias and from the Iraqi militias are stationed in very important intersections in the capital, guarding the palaces, guarding sensitive institutions such as the Syrian state television. And there is the security compounds that have traditionally ruled the city.

So now the regular forces that have pulled back from Homs, they are trying to concentrate their forces south of Jadid Atoz, which is the northern gate to the capital. And we have heard from our contacts in Damascus people who live actually less than two kilometers away from Jadid Atoz and they are telling us that they can hear the fighting approaching the city which is creating a sense of apprehension but there's no lawlessness so far things seem to have gun to plan or even better than what's been planned by the rebels. The regime, if you watch what they are putting on social media or on state national TV, I mean it has become a pastime entertainment for me to watch the Syrian state TV in the

last 48 and 72 hours and it's quite bizarre. It's like they are living in a parallel world and obviously understand why they're putting out such statements. It's because the only thing that is left for them is to reassure that population of the capital that we are still here. It's not over yet. And maybe they are trying to buy time because from the lookout of it, it is actually very bad situation to be in for the Syrian regime. Mahmoud Ali Hamad of BBC Arabic. Well, we're also joined by our Middle East regional editor, Sebastian Arshad. So there are all these different groups approaching Damascus from the north and from the south. They've lost control in the east. I mean, what does the government

still control in Syria? We don't know 100%. I mean, I think as Mahmoud was saying there, I mean the real key is the hardcore praetorian guard essentially around President Assad. Is that going to hold? I mean forget about the government forces. I think that is an issue that's finished essentially. They haven't shown any appetite for the battle in any of the places so far, whether it's the south, the east or the north. But you would think there are very, very strong vested interests, obviously that have developed over the war that already existed, but even more so, which are allied both to the economic and the military support for President Assad. And it's basically,

are they going to stage a fight? Do they think there's still something to fight for? Or are they basically going to get out while they still can? President Assad, we don't know if he's there. We don't know if he's not. I mean there are rumors flying around. We had the president's office saying that he is denying rumors that he'd left, saying that essentially he is about his official business.

I would say that looking at what happened in the past, I mean there were moments like in 2014, 2015 when it looked like President Assad was about to lose before the Russians came in and he didn't leave then. I would say that going by that pattern, it may well be that President Assad is still there. He is still perhaps holding to a belief that there is this circle of steel as the interior minister was talking about.

Mahmoud says that it's been almost like a fantasy land hearing about that, that they're still using those words and there may be some reality to that still. I mean the real, as I say, hardcore that has surrounded President Assad, we do not know if that is broken yet and there may be a sense that they feel they can hold out and if they can buy time, again as Mahmoud said, that could change the situation. The rebels are not united. There were divisions before. It wasn't just the Russian and Iranian supporters.

It was the fact that the rebels were fighting amongst each other, that they didn't get support from outside, etc., etc. All of that could still be holding out hope for President Assad and the elite around him that they can stay the course. They've got a huge amount to lose if they go. Yes, they've got money. yes, they can go outside. But I mean that can be frozen, there can be all sorts of issues. So I think they will hold on for as long as they believe that there is a chance and I

don't think they might have reached that stage yet where they feel the final chance is snuffed. Even as we watch from outside and it feels like the rapidity of this, as Lina was saying, is so intense that it can't be withstood. And that is all from us for now but we'll have an update in our regular edition of the Global News podcast in a couple of hours. This special was mixed by Derek Clarke and produced by Nikki Virico, our editors Karen Martin. I'm Oliver Conway. For now, goodbye. the Pacific. This small island nation has grand ambitions to mine its seabed for metals used in green technology. But a community that's defined by its ocean has found itself

at the centre of a global debate. Listen now by searching for the documentary wherever you get your BBC podcasts.