Global News Podcast - Ukraine Two Years On – Your Questions Answered

Episode Date: February 23, 2024

For two years, the Russian president Vladimir Putin has been waging a brutal conflict in Ukraine - the bloodiest in Europe since the Second World War. But after tens of thousands of deaths on both sides who has the upper hand? What is life like in Ukraine, and Russia, today? And when will the killing end? The Global News Podcast and Ukrainecast have come together to answer your questions.

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Simply subscribe to BBC Podcast Premium on Apple Podcasts or listen to Amazon Music with a Prime membership. Spend less time on ads and more time with BBC Podcasts. For two years, the Russian President Vladimir Putin has been waging a brutal conflict in Ukraine, the bloodiest in Europe since the Second World War. But after tens of thousands of deaths on both sides, who has the upper hand? What is life like in Ukraine and Russia today? And when will the killing end? The Global News Podcast and Ukrainecast have come together to answer your questions. Ukraine cast from BBC News.

Ukraine is an epicentre of unbearable heartache and pain. Millions of people are without heating, without water. Putin is the aggressor. He will be ready to use nuclear weapons. They killed him and fled. I do not know how we managed to survive. I want people to know the truth. Hello, I'm Oliver Conway from the Global News Podcast. And I'm Vitaly Shevchenko,

the co-presenter from UkraineCast in the UkraineCast studio. And I'm Olga Robinson from BBC Verify, also in the UkraineCast studio. I'm Lise Doucette, the BBC's chief international correspondent, and I'm back in the Ukrainian capital, Kiev. And I'm Steve Rosenberg, the BBC's Russia editor, and I'm Lise Doucette, the BBC's chief international correspondent, and I'm back in the Ukrainian capital, Kiev. And I'm Steve Rosenberg, the BBC's Russia editor, and I'm in Moscow. Well, thank you all for joining us. We've had lots of questions from listeners to the Global News podcast and Ukrainecast. Thank you all. And we'll try to answer as many as we can.

Hello, my name is Derek Richings from London in the UK. Is there really a stalemate in Ukraine at the moment? This is Angela from Auckland in New Zealand. Could you talk, please, about the changes, Zelensky's strategy with the departure of Zelushny as the general in charge of the army? Well, Lise, first of all, is there a stalemate on the battlefield or has the tide turned in favour of Russia? Well, I'll answer the question about the stalemate

and in that I'll partially be answering the second question. It was General Zeluzhny, the last commander-in-chief, who used the word stalemate in an interview and it's said to have angered President Zelensky. He felt it was too negative a description of the situation along the front line. But President Zelensky himself recently went to visit his troops in the east and he described the situation as extremely difficult. He's saying that the Russian forces are now pressing ahead in at least five directions, and he believes that Russia is trying to take advantage of delays in the delivery of critical

military support, in particular that some $60 billion in military aid that's being held up by political infighting in the U.S. Congress. Now, I think Ukrainians are waiting to see whether the change in the commander-in-chief will make a difference. President Zelensky himself has spoken of a reboot in the military strategy two years on. You speak to Ukrainians and others, and they have many different reasons for why there had to be a change. Was it a normal change in the high command? Was President Zelensky worried about the growing popularity of his commander-in-chief? Does it make military sense? Does it make political sense? And will it make a difference on that very difficult battlefield? Steve, what's the view in Moscow? Well, when you

listen to the political chat shows on state television, when you listen to what Russian officials are saying, when you listen to what President Putin is saying, you certainly get the feeling that the Russians believe that the situation is changing, that the tide is turning in Moscow's favour. But the thing is, the Russians are not just watching what's happening on the battlefield, on the thing is, the Russians are not just watching what's happening on the battlefield, on the front line. They're watching what's happening in the corridors of power, right,

in Europe and particularly in America. The fact that this future U.S. military assistance to Ukraine is stuck in the Congress, that is giving, I think, the Kremlin added confidence that this could be a turning point. And so, you know, very often when Vladimir Putin appears on TV now, he's smiling. He's talking about Russia gaining the initiative. And I think the Russians are looking ahead with confidence. And Olga, what can you tell us about how much territory has actually changed hands over this past year? Well, it's been really slow, the progress in fighting on the ground, across the front line. And we know from the Institute for the Study of War that, according to their estimates,

in total, 130,000 square kilometres of the territory changed hands in the first year of the war, that's 2022. And that number went down to 900 square kilometres in 2023. That's less than 1,000 kilometres. So 130,000 compared to less than 1,000. So it's almost like a stalemate and it felt like it for a very long time. But in the past few weeks, things have really been changing a little bit. And we could see from the developments on the ground, the fall of the town of Avdiivka to Russians,

it feels like if it were at scales, it looks like they're tipping slightly right now towards Russia. But the question is whether that's a long-term change or whether it's just temporary. If we look at who Valery Zalozhny was in the eyes of the public in Ukraine and the military, he was almost universally admired, respected. Many members of the Ukrainian military saw him as a kindly, caring father and they felt that they were in the same boat with him.

And the new commander-in-chief, Aleksandr Sirski, he's seen very differently. When he was appointed, there were shrieks of dismay and outrage, and people remembered that even though he has bags of experience, he's been fighting since almost the very beginning of Russia's invasion 10 years ago, he showed himself as a callous commander who doesn't often care about the number of Ukrainian soldiers who die in these operations. That's at least how he is perceived in Ukraine. And of course, he's not had the opportunity just yet to show what he's really made of as the commander in chief of the Ukrainian army. And we have to remember that he's taken over at a time when Ukraine is running out of ammunition and people. So it's not going to be easy for him. Next, some of the listeners to the Global News podcast and Ukraine cast have been asking about the impact of the war on civilian populations.

My name is Dale Haslam. I live in Scotland. My question is, what psychological effect has the frequency of air raids had on the Ukrainian people? My name is Frederik from Paris. My question is about the efficiency of the economic sanctions on Russia. What are the real effects? Is daily life affected in the country? Well, Steve, you can look at that in just a moment. But first, Lise, what does daily life affected in the country? Well, Steve, you can look at that in just a moment. But first, Lise, what does it feel like in Ukraine today? I have to say, I remember the first weeks of the war, that whenever the air raid sirens sounded,

everyone immediately went to their bomb shelters, either underground parks, metro station, basements, whatever they had. Everyone knew they had to have somewhere to hide. But as the months went on and people realized that every time the air raid siren sounded, it didn't necessarily mean that there was going to be a missile slamming into a building or a street nearby, people became much more relaxed about it. They look up from what they're doing and they get on with it. But then every so often they are reminded that you have to take them seriously. There were blistering attacks here in Kiev in January, reminding people that even though Kiev can at

times feel far away from the worst impact of this war, it still is in Moscow's sights. But of course, if you're in an area which comes under more regular attack, for example, Dnipro is coming up in the east, is coming under greater attack. Kherson, we've heard terrible reports today of quite a few attacks today. So I think it depends where you are and what you have lived through. Yeah, I mean, Russia is the most sanctioned country in the world now. And, you know, I remember back two years ago, some economists in the West were predicting that the tsunami of sanctions that Western governments were imposing on Russia would mean that, you know, a few months later, the Russian economy would collapse. That hasn't happened. And in fact, recently, I think the IMF revised upwards its growth forecast for Russia this year. So if you go to a Russian supermarket, for instance, still plenty of food, plenty of goods on the shelves. Perhaps not the selection, the wide selection that there was two years ago, but still plenty there.

OK, a lot of the Western cars, Western washing machines, perhaps no longer available, a lot of Chinese goods instead. But still sanctions haven't hit the ordinary population in Russia to the extent, I think, that perhaps Western governments were assuming. And Russia has been able to redirect a lot of its oil and gas, I think, to China, to India. Having said that, there could well be problems ahead because it's the military, the military industrial complex, which has been keeping the economy running here. The Russians are spending a lot of money on the military. How long can that last? I hear similar stories from people that I know back in Russia, around Moscow area. And they say, yes, there are no empty shelves in shops and pretty

much everything is available. But if you look closer, prices have gone up. And also some of the people say that they've noticed that you now get for the same price that you used to get for like basic things, you would get less product. And that's also sort of something that they've noticed in their daily life. But it's not like, I don't get a sense from people that sanctions is something they think about a lot on a daily basis. But of course, the war is having a bigger impact on both countries, on those actually doing the fighting. We've got two listeners asking about conscription.

But before we get to them, I know you on Ukrainecast and you on BBC Verify often look at the numbers. Is it possible to say how many troops have died on each side? Not really possible to say for sure overall, give an overall estimate on both sides. But journalists and volunteers are trying to get a sense of what we can say and what we can verify using social media accounts and official statements, media reports that are available. So, for example, our colleagues at BBC Russian and an independent media outlet called Mediazona have been trying to count Russian losses. And so far, their near the final figure because it most likely is much, much bigger than that. And the problem with counting deaths is that for some deaths, you just don't have anything that you can verify or check. And obviously, neither Russia nor Ukraine are willing to disclose their own losses because, well, they are not very small.

They are tragic. They will be exploited by the other side. That is the reason why we don't really know how many people Russia and Ukraine have lost, but it's a huge number. Right, let's get to the questions. My name is Arthur and I'm currently based in London. Many have speculated that after the Russian elections in March this year, there will no longer be any impediments holding Putin back from another round of call-ups. If true, what potential effects could they have on both the actual battlefield and domestic politics in Russia?

It's Geoff from Germany here. I'd like to hear about the perspective of Ukrainian soldiers and their relatives, in particular that of conscripts. Are men fleeing occupied territory allowed to leave the country yet? To what extent are civilians being forced into conscription and how are conscientious objectors treated? Steve, why don't you start by telling us about a possible another round of call-ups in Russia? Well, it's possible. But if you go back to the first wave of mobilisation in Russia, which was, what, September 2022, when the Kremlin announced what it called partial mobilisation, hundreds of thousands of Russian men being called up, that caused a lot of alarm in Russian society. All kinds of surveys showed that. And the Kremlin knows that. So what's been happening in recent months, the Kremlin has that. So what's been happening in recent months, the Kremlin has been relying on contract soldiers, throwing lots of money at this to encourage

people, to encourage Russian men to sign up voluntarily and head off to the front line. And that's been working so far. The authorities say they've managed to hire hundreds of thousands of Russian men to do that, who are attracted by the large sums of money. The authorities say they've managed to hire hundreds of thousands of Russian men to do that, who are attracted by the large sums of money. The authorities know that if they decide on another large wave of mobilisation, that again is going to cause a lot of alarm in Russian society. And the last thing the authorities here want to do is to destabilise the social situation within the country. And Lise, where you are, isn't there a bill going through Parliament to try to boost conscription?

Yes, a whopping figure of half a million more soldiers need to be called up to fight in this war. The last commander-in-chief, General Zelensky, was the first one to use that figure. President Zelensky objected, saying we can find other ways, better rotation of forces. We don't think this is possible. And so there's a heated debate about that mobilization bill now going through Parliament. We met the National Security Advisor, Alexei Danilov, and he said, yes, it is a figure of half a million, but we won't be asking, his words for today or tomorrow. It'll be phased over time.

But we hear reports of people being quite pushed to that the conscription's getting a bit rough. I met someone this morning at a coffee shop in Kiev and he said he had been stopped on the street by officials and asked why

he wasn't at the front line. You hear these stories about people being questioned, about their whereabouts. Have they served yet? What are they doing? So this is very much hanging in the air now. The bill hasn't gone through yet and it's still being debated. But certainly all the reports are that the troops are exhausted. There does need to be a rotation. There needs to be more troops. President Zelensky himself used the figure of a five to one ratio of Russian forces and weaponry versus what the Ukrainians have on the front lines right now. Ukraine currently is facing a twofold problem, really. One is a shortage of ammunition caused by delays in Western supplies. And the second one is a people problem. motivated and capable Ukrainian fighters, they are tired. Many of them have been wounded. Many of them are dead. And replacing them has been a huge struggle. I keep hearing stories of

men who are still in Ukraine and still not in the army, unwilling to pop out of the shops because they are afraid of being conscripted. So they're stuck indoors all the time. And this is a huge problem which Ukrainian legislators and the Ukrainian president will try and resolve. But it's ultimately to those men in Ukraine whether they are willing to go and fight and how good they're going to be. You mentioned the Western military support. Many listeners have been asking about that, including Robin in New Zealand and Laurie in London, particularly when will the fighter jets arrive? And here's Michael Sitka from Ireland. When will the US aid, if at all, be approved and

sent to Ukraine? And when will the EU aid that has been approved arrive there? What kind of impact can they have on the war? Well, there was a report in the media here that the first F-16 fighter pilots being trained now will be ready by the summer. And there have been promises of F-16s that will be delivered sometime this year. And President Zelensky has been talking about the arrival of fighter jets

that he has been asking for for a very long time. And with some bitterness saying, as with all the heavy armor, the ammunition, everything, all the support that they're very grateful for, it never arrives in a timely fashion. And so too with the F-16 fighter jets that they hope will help in trying to turn the tide of war in Ukraine's favour. But will they be the silver bullet that Ukraine needs? Possibly, possibly not. Many people in Ukraine and their backers abroad would agree that it's a comprehensive approach involving military support, diplomatic support, financial support that would ultimately help Ukraine defeat Russia. any of that, well, they in fact mean that Ukraine is being forced to fight with its hands being tied behind its back, because there are numerous stories of Ukrainians having to withdraw, to surrender even, once they run out of ammunition. It's that bad. Avdiivka is exactly the example of that, because I remember talking to a journalist who spent four months in Avdiivka over the period of autumn.

And he was saying that in December, he was saying, we are lacking ammunition, we're lacking men, we're lacking everything. It's just the only thing that we're winning with is motivation. And that was in December. And then in February, we saw what we saw after Yucca fell. Well, bearing all that in mind, where does it all go from here, not least with the possible return of Donald Trump to the White

House, along with his promise to end the war in one day? I am Srinivasu from India. Has the world community conveniently forgotten the mounting death toll in Ukraine and Russia. How long will this war have to go on? Olivier Protard from Paris. Is there any chance that the International Criminal Court in The Hague will one day judge Vladimir Putin for the war crimes he has committed? Well, Steve, that last one's for you. And I wonder if you can also tackle an email we had from Philip, who says, this is Putin's war. So how much would change if he, Putin, were removed from the picture by natural or manmade causes? Oh, that's an interesting question, isn't it? When this all began two years ago, I was calling it Putin's war, because there was no doubt that this was his decision that he took to launch what he calls still the special military operation, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. And it's clear that a lot of senior Russian officials had no idea that this was coming. I wouldn't call it Putin's war because there are lots of people, lots of officials,

propagandists on state television who are now involved in this. And of course, a lot of soldiers fighting, Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine. If you remove Putin from the equation and someone else comes, what happens? Depends who that person is. Looking back in Russian history, so much depends on the person at the top. It's true. And we don't know who would succeed Vladimir Putin. So that's a difficult one to answer. But certainly there are a lot of other people, apart from the Russian president, who are now on board with this. Having said that, from my conversations with Russians over the last few months, ordinary people here, there is a fatigue. A lot of people say to me, you know, we want peace,

we want the war to be over. And people do use the word war. They call it a war. When you speak to ordinary Russians, they don't use the phrase special military operation. People understand what's happening and would like peace. Some people say they want peace on Russia's terms. Some people say they want negotiations. But people realise that this is affecting a lot of people here in Russia too and can't wait for it to end. And the likelihood of Mr Putin ending up in the International Criminal Court, I guess, unlikely? I would think so. And certainly Russian officials believe that's unlikely and speak mockingly about the arrest warrant that was issued by the International Criminal Court. So at the moment, it looks like Russia is determined to carry on to the bitter end. Some listeners are wondering what that might mean for Ukraine.

This is Karen from Ontario, Canada. Just wondering what the global impact of Ukrainian defeat might look like. My name is Reggie. I live in a small town in the southern United States. With the war in Ukraine having now dragged on for some time, what do everyday Ukrainians see as the path forward? What does success look like in their eyes? This is Dave, and I'm in Queensland in Australia. My question is about the political future within Ukraine. It's difficult to stage elections

when the country's under martial law and if Russia is occupying sections of Ukraine, it's very difficult to involve people living in those occupied territories in an election. If this remains a frozen conflict, where does Ukraine go from here? So lots of questions there, Lise. Yes, let me start by

saying I remember vividly last year at this time, President Zelensky telling the people of Ukraine, telling the world that Ukraine will win this war, and it will win this war this year. And I remember thinking, wow, that's dangerous to say that because it doesn't look like a year ago. It didn't look like Ukraine would win, would prevail in a year. And at the same time in Moscow, President Putin was saying exactly the same thing, that his forces would win and win this year. And what I'm hearing from Ukrainians, at least here in Kiev, they're saying, you know, we really thought that this war was not going to last a long time. We were motivated. And to a person, they'd say, we can win and we will win. But now you hear the realization that this war could go on for a very long time. Even people admitting, not in public,

but quietly in private, saying, you know, there's even a possibility we could lose but this is something they don't want to say because for Ukraine this is not just a war this is an existential battle remember this war began with President Putin reaching back into his version of history and saying Ukraine is a mistake of a country Ukraine doesn't have a right to exist. It is part of Russia. So that is partly why they have stood up and fought for so long. But also you have to remember that it's different for those who are here in Kiev. War doesn't leave any part of Ukraine untouched.

But there is a difference between living in a war in Kiev and being at the front lines in the east and in the south, and of course east, that includes territory now occupied by the Russians. But there are whole towns which have been erased, that have been completely reduced. They don't exist anymore. And those people who are living in those regions, their version of this war is much more dark

and much more all-encompassing. So Olga, Vitaly and Steve, will the fighting still be going on this time next year? I mean, I really doubt it will end any time soon. I mean, not at this point, it doesn't look like it. Russia's still fighting, still determined to fight. Its economy is still buoyant. I've seen projections saying that it will grow. But let's think for the moment, what Ukraine's defeat would mean for the world.

Because there are so many people saying, oh, it's only Ukraine. If it's gone, life goes on anyway. But let's have a think about an emboldened Kremlin, which will be able to pull the strings more effectively. We've seen it try and meddle in different democracies before. If it defeats Ukraine, it will definitely try to do it again, using energy to try and achieve an advantage across the globe. And that's apart from the moral issue of invading another country,

killing so many people, and applying the principle of might is right. We've got nuclear weapons, what are you going to do about it? And Steve, in your answer, we've also had an email from De Vere in New York asking whether all this NATO support for Ukraine is making Russia feel even more threatened. Well, in a way, NATO support plays into the Kremlin's hands. It bolsters the Kremlin's narrative, which it presents to the Russian people. That narrative being that, look, you know, we told you Russia is threatened by NATO. NATO wants to hurt Russia, wants to destroy Russia. That's the message you get when you switch on Russian state television. So whenever NATO gives support to

Ukraine, the Russians come out with that narrative. As regards how long the fighting is going to go on for, I think Vladimir Putin believes he has the staying power, that Russia has the staying power that he thinks Ukraine lacks and he thinks the West lacks. And, you know, there are two elections that the Kremlin has its eye on this year. There's what's going to happen in Russia next month. I mean, that's a given, isn't it? Vladimir Putin is going to win. The Kremlin controls that 100 percent. But then the Russians are looking at the American election, too. And if Donald Trump comes into the White House, comes back to the White House, I think that Moscow believes that that will bring a sea change regarding the war in Ukraine,

even though you hear Vladimir Putin now bizarrely coming out publicly saying, I support Joe Biden. In reality, I think there's little doubt that the Kremlin would prefer it if Donald Trump came back into the White House. And that would have an effect, I think the Kremlin's hoping, on what happens with the war in Ukraine. But Lise, briefly, whatever happens, the Ukrainians won't give up. They say we can't give up. If we give up, we give up. We give up our lives. We give up our identity. We give up our country. That give up our identity. We give up our country. That is how high the stakes are. And to pick up on what Vitaly said, they keep insisting, and certainly President Zelensky insists at every turn, it's not just Ukraine's war.

They are fighting a war on behalf of Europe, on behalf of those countries neighboring Russia, on behalf of all those countries who say that they're fighting for democracy against authoritarian rule. And there is a very real risk. It is believed in the capitals of NATO countries that if President Putin, if Russia prevails in this war, it will only be a matter of time before Russian troops cross the border into another country. President Putin denies that. But who can forget January of 2022, where President Putin, his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, kept repeating, we have no intention of invading Ukraine.

Thank you all. Apologies, we didn't have time to cover all of your questions. But with the war set to continue, no doubt these are topics that we will return to on Ukrainecast and the Global News Podcast. But for now, goodbye. If you're hearing this, you're probably already listening to BBC's award-winning news podcasts. But did you know that you can listen to them without ads? Get current affairs podcasts like Global News,

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