High Hopes: A Phillies Podcast - BONUS: The Ideal Phillies Lineup with Bryce Harper | 'WIP Daily'

Episode Date: May 3, 2023

From 'WIP Daily' (subscribe here): With Bryce Harper back on the field following his elbow surgery, Joe Giglio runs through his favorite lineup combinations that could kickstart the Phillies offense. 'WIP Daily' is a new podcast from WIP and Audacy Sports. Fifteen minutes, every weekday, on the biggest news from the best sports city in the world, plus clips from your favorite WIP podcasts and shows. It’s your one-stop shop for everything Philly sports. Follow wherever you get your podcasts. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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or the bank there's never an off day on broad street it's the biggest news of the day every day with takes from someone who's never short on them it's wip daily with joe gilio It's WIP Daily with Joe Giglio. and, of course, the NFL draft. Watch out for Nolan Smith on the midday show coming up on Wednesday. But I want to get into the lineup stuff with the Phillies today because it's really interesting. I think lineup construction is so fun to debate. Now, the merits of how much it actually means, how much it makes a difference in terms of run scoring over the course of a full season,

probably not as much as we think it does, but it is fun to debate. And last night, Bryce Harper returned, dud for the Phillies. Bryce looked rusty. Not a surprise on that part. But moving forward with this lineup and how Rob Thompson sets it up, I have a preference. I know all you guys have a preference. We saw

the way he did it, which was very similar to what I put out on Tuesday with the exception of where Marsh and Stott were, but it's very similar. I'm going to go through three possible lineup combinations that I think we could see over the course of the season. It's all fluid, of were, but it's very similar. I'm going to go through three possible lineup combinations that I think we could see over the course of the season. It's all fluid, of course, but

I'll just start with this before I get into my three possible combinations, the pros and cons of each. I like Kyle Schwarber in the leadoff spot. When I envision this Phillies lineup, I want to attack the opposing pitcher off the jump of the game. Schwarber, Turner, Harper. Boom, boom, boom, when they're all going.

Boom, boom, boom. I think that brings you the best combination of all the best things in this Phillies lineup right at the top. And I know a lot of people hate the idea of Schwarber in the leadoff spot, which is funny to me because they literally went to the World Series last year with Kyle Schwarber as their leadoff hitter. We talk about, like, you can't win like that. Well, they did.

They won the National League last year with Kyle Schwarber hitting leadoff hitter. We talk about, like, you can't win like that. Well, they did. They won the National League last year with Kyle Ashwerber hitting leadoff. But that being said, just quickly, here's what Topper did last night, just so we're all on the same page. Topper went Schwarber, Turner, Harper, Castellanos, Stott, Realmuto, Beaumarch, Sosa on Tuesday night. Now,

I don't get the Stott in the middle lineup thing. I mean, that is weird to me. I'd either have him at the top or the bottom. So here's how I would do it. I put this out on Tuesday. I'd go Schwarber, one, Turner, two, Harper, three, Castellanos, four, Marsh, five, JT, six, Boehm, seven, Stott, eight, Sosa, nine. My rationalization here and why I like this lineup.

Number one, let's just go through the Schwarber and Stott debate on who should be the leadoff hitter. I think we've overrated Bryson Stott to start this season. Not that he hasn't grown. Not that he's not an exciting young player. Obviously he is. I'm a big fan of Bryson Stott. I actually think he's been way better defensively at second base than short.

He could potentially go Glover down the line at second base. I'm a big fan of the kid. But offensively, as a leadoff hitter, the only thing he provides is singles. I mean, he's not hitting for significant power. You know, as we look at his stats heading into May 3rd, Bryson Stott is slugging.405. Okay, his OBP is.336.

He's hitting.305. He has six walks in the season. Everything is derived from singles. Okay, he has two home runs and he has a total of the nine extra base hits. Really, his season is 31

singles. That's why he's hitting 305. He doesn't walk. And that's it for power. So if he's not hitting singles, he has to carry a 300 or better batting average the entire year to justify hitting near the top of the lineup. Because let's just play it out based on his walk rate. If he hits 285, which is fine.

That's a nice batting average. His OBP is going to be barely over 300. He'll be like 316 or whatever. Like 306, it's going to be in the 310 range. Put it that way. It's not going to be high enough to bat at the top of the order. So I'd rather have some oomph up there. Schwarber, despite a batting average 100 points lower,

basically has the same OBP. So you're getting some oomph and basically the same times on base. Yeah, he strikes out more, but Stott doesn't strike out a little amount of time either. I mean, Bryce is Stott for a leadoff hitter, for all we love about him. I mean, he does work pitching and all that. His strikeout rate is, you know, it's 18.3%. It's not super low.

You know, it's not one of the best, like single digits or 11%. It's there, right? It's a decent strikeout rate. Obviously, Schwarber strikes out more, but that doesn't bother me because at least there's some oomph to it, very similar OBPs. So I like the idea of going Schwarber one, Turner, who we saw at the home run on Tuesday, sandwiched in between the lefties, gets him favorable matchups against left-handed pitching. Harper three, Castellanos four, because

he's elevated himself back to that with the way he's hit this season. I've given him a lot of credit. I was very critical last year. I doubted he'd bounce back. So far, it's been a significant bounce back for Castellanos. I like that. One, two, three, four, Schwarber, Turner, Harper, Castellanos. Up at Marsh five to break up the righties, to keep the righty-lefty thing going. And we can't ignore what Marsh has done. He's been, by OPS, their best offensive player this year. And I think smack dab in the middle is a good spot for him. JT 6, I think JT's very versatile,

and he's really a good player to have in a lineup like this because you can almost justify hitting him anywhere. He's not perfect anywhere, but he's good anywhere. I'll put it that way. He's him 6 in a lineup like this because you can almost justify hitting him anywhere. He's not perfect anywhere, but he's good anywhere. I'll put it that way. He's him six in my lineup. Alec Boehm, seven. Boehm's really cooled down from that hot start. It's just, it's fine.

I'll put it that way. Alec Boehm has been fine. He's certainly been in a positive, but not a negative, but also not overwhelming. Like he's going to be in the all-star game, maybe the way we thought two weeks ago. So Alec Boehm, 7. Stott, 8. And this is strictly for righty-lefty stuff. Like, you know, I know Topper at Stott, 5.

I don't get that at all on Tuesday. But I like Stott, 8. It's just kind of length is the lineup. And at the bottom, you can't breathe with JT, 6. Boehm, 7. Stott, 8. And then I've obviously Sosa, 9. In my mind, Sosa's the everyday third baseman.

That's kind of the way this is played out until Bryce could get to first base. Boehm at first, Sosa at third. So my ideal lineup, Schwarber, Turner, Harper, Castellanos, Marsh 5, JT6, Boehm 7, Stott 8, Sosa 9. Topper with the idea, like I don't get why you'd want to put Marsh towards the bottom. He's been an impact hitter. And then you'd want to put Stott in the middle when there's no umph. It's just singles. I mean, I guess he's thinking runners on base.

He knocks him in. We'll see if it works out over time. But that's my lineup. Schwarber, Turner, Harper, Castellanos, Marsh, JT, Boehm, Stott, Sosa. All right, let me give a couple other potential iterations here for everyone out there who wants something different. Now, I did also play around with the idea that the only worry about this is stacking lefties, but I played around with the idea of keeping it pretty much the same except switching Harper and Turner.

So Schwarber one, Harper two, Turner three. I don't love that. I could see them doing it at some point, maybe against some lefties. But I look at it like this. I don't even know if it's a lefty righty thing. It just it just could be a different way to kind of stack this up, get more plate appearances for Bryce Harper. How do stop losses work on Kraken? Let's say I have a birthday party on Wednesday night, but an important meeting Thursday morning. So sensible me pre-books a taxi for 10 p.m. with alerts. Voila. I won't be getting

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because if he's not hitting one how far do you drop him down we discussed this on the show the other day and you gotta worry about separating righty lefty

and that's why although Schwarber Harper 1-2 could work and maybe you put Harper in the 2 spot and then Turner 3 where he hit a lot with the Dodgers. There's some awkwardness.

People want Turner to bat leadoff. He hasn't hit well this year to begin with. And two, then you're stacking the lefties 2-3 or 1-2. If Turner's on him between Schwarber Harper, I think it makes it awkward. And I've heard some people say, well, he clogs the bases, Schwarber, and you can't run if you're Trey Turner. First of all, Trey Turner has only attempted four steals the entire year. So he's not really running that much anyway. We're a month into the season, he's attempted four steals. I mean, do the math. He's going to attempt 24 steals this year. I mean, he's got to

run on his own. I mean, the Schwarber thing just happened yesterday. He's not running. So he's not getting on base enough. He's also not running much. So I don't think it's right now as big a part of his game as we maybe think it should be or want it to be. So that's one. Two, I think we're kind of losing the big picture here, right? Let's play it out. Like the idea of Turner after Schwarber. And, oh, no, he's going to clog the bases. Okay.

Well, let's say it's Schwarber on first. Turner gets a singular walks, right? So it's first and second. Oh, he can't run. Schwarber on first, Turner gets a singular walks, right? So it's first and second. Oh, he can't run. Schwarber's in front of him. Guys, if it's runners on first and second, nobody out for Bryce Harper, they have an outstanding run scoring opportunity already. Like they don't need to run to get a run scoring opportunity.

They're already in a run scoring opportunity with two runners on. So another iteration could be a switch Harper and Schwarber one-two. I don't love it. My lineup, I like Schwarber, Turner, Harper. But here's one that I saw was pretty popular, and it would kind of, I think, appease everyone who wants to keep things status quo and doesn't like Schwarber 1. Here's another iteration possible down the line

if they want to put Stott back to leadoff. Stott 1, Turner 2, Harper 3. Castellanos 4, Schwarber 5, Real Muto 6, Marsh 7, Boehm 8, Sosa 9. Now, that probably excites you more than maybe the lineup I put out, at least based on some of the reaction I saw yesterday. But here's why I don't love it. Number one, as we went over, Stott is really not an impactful hitter

at this point of his career. He's a singles hitter who works pitches. I mean, what he brings to the offense is valuable in terms of grinding pitchers, working them, a lot of pitches per plate appearance, but it's not manifesting itself in a gigantic on-base percentage. Again, everything he's doing is being carried by

a 300 average, which is probably unsustainable. If I had to guess, based on the player that Stott is right now, the profile of the hitter, I would guess he's going to end the year in the 280 range, 285, which again would be good. But if you're combining that with not many walks, not super low strikeout rate, and not much power,

I don't think that's a guy you put at the top of your order. I don't want that to get more plate appearances than anyone over the course of the season. But you want to keep it? Alright, Stott 1, Turner 2, Harper 3, Castellanos, Schwarber 5, Realmuto 6, Marsh 7, Boehm 8, Sosa 9. Now a couple other issues I have with this potential lineup.

Marsh has been their best offense player this year. Now we're dropping him to seven. I mean, in my lineup, he's five. In Topper's lineup yesterday, he's towards the bottom. In this lineup, he's seven. I don't like that. I mean, I'm wasting impact from Marsh. Why? I mean, there's no really reason to do it other than, well, we got

a bat top of the order. He's a classic lead off hitter. Well, okay. But I don't know if that leads to the most runs scored for the team. So that's the other thing. And then Boehm, I just, man, eight for Alec Boehm feels too low. I have him seven in my ideal lineup. Eight feels a little bit too low. So those issues worry me. And then to go back to the Schwarber thing, with five versus one versus wherever the heck you want to hit him. So I actually think Kyle Schwarber's off to a better start that we're giving him credit for based on his own track record. Okay. We know June Schwarber's a monster. He already has seven home runs.

So let's just say, you know, he has an okay May. He has five home runs in May, whatever, four home runs in May. Let's just say four or five. He ends May with 12 or 13, between 11 and 13 home runs. We know his track record is going to hit 10 or 12 in June. We're going to be at the midway point. He's going to be at 25 home runs. I don't want to waste, as I think they're going to try to settle

into a lineup here with Bryce Harper back. I don't want to waste June Schwarber at five when I could lead off every game and get the most plate appearances, right? Because over the course of a season, whoever hits one, you play it out, and it's like, I think at one point,

the data was like, if you leave a lineup alone all year long, every spot in the order, if you just leave it every day, like the same one through nine, the one hitter will get, let's say, 50 more plate appearances than the two,

and then so on and so forth. So over the course of a long time, you get more plate appearances for your top guys. It's why, not just day-to-day, but long-term, you keep your best guys at the top because you want to get them the most plate appearances over the course of the season. I don't want to waste June Schwarber hitting five or six

because that guy's going to get electric hot in the course of the season. I don't want to waste June Schwarber hitting five or six because that guy's going to get electric hot in the beginning of the summer like he always seems to do. He did it here in Philadelphia last year. I don't want to waste that. So, again, I know why people like Stott, and it's like that classic, this is the way it used to be with leadoff hitters, with Stott and Turner, and they're fast and they're scrappy. I don't care about any of that.

You get on base, and you hit for pop. That's what care about any of that. Could you get on base, and do you hit for pop? That's what I want with the guys that are near the top of the order. And if you're fast, great. Like Trey Turner, you're a 5-2 player, even better. But I think for this team, as I try to settle in here, my ideal lineup is Schwarber, Turner, Harper, Castellanos, Marsh, JT, Boehm, Stott, Sosa. Obviously, you know, sometimes there'll be a platoon change,

or JT will sit because he's a catcher. Like, this is not going to be every single day, but I would do that. And Schwarber, Turner, Harper is how I want to start my order every day. And then we'll go from there. You know, we'll see who's sitting, who's served, who's banged up, whatever. But I think Topper's got the right idea. I felt good when the lineup came out Wednesday, despite the Marsh-Stott thing. That's weird to me.

I don't understand Stott 5. But I felt good that his head's in the space of Schwarber, Turner, Harper, because I think it really, and I think it will help get the best out of Turner, who's had a really difficult start to his Phillies career, just unimpactful at the plate, home run on Tuesday night and Bryce return. I think, especially

late in the game, they're going to bring a lefty in, the opponent, to face Schwarber and Harper. They have to. Well, that, I mean, Turner's going to crush that lefty, and then, ideally, I mean, Turner's going to crush that lefty. And then, ideally, Castellanos will be able to crush that lefty. You bring a lefty in to face Schwarber, he walks him. Turner, boom. Harper, who always handles lefties better than I think we give him credit for, boom.

Castellanos always better against lefties. Like, that's, you're just baiting the opponent into a bad situation. That's why I like it. Line of construction is always so wild how strong the opinions are, and then you look over the years and what baseball people really think. Does it really matter that much? I don't know. I mean, I think we all could say,

yeah, it does. No, it doesn't. Here's what I do now. It's going to be a constant discussion on WIP based on how Schroeper's hitting, how Stott's hitting, and how the team is going. They've been feast or famine. The goal at some point here has got to try to be a little bit more consistency with the offense and getting some more runs on the board over the course of time. Plus, I mean, this is independent of this discussion,

that pitch has got to get going. I mean, the pitching has really been more of the problem this year than the offense, and that even is with the feast or famine days that they've had. It's going to be fun to watch. Hopefully the Phillies can get themselves righted again after three straight losses here Sunday in Houston and then, of course, a couple in LA. It's a tough road trip. If they could get out

with a, let's say, 3-3, they win the final and they come home for Boston, I think good vibes as Bryce Harper is back and obviously adds and lengthens this lineup so much. That is the silver lining as we end this. The silver lining is look how deep it is. When I'm putting Boehm or you're putting Marsh or Stott or whoever,

eight, it's a pretty darn deep lineup. It'll be fun to watch. I like it. Schwarber, Turner, Harper, Castellanos, Marsh, JT, Boehm, Stott, Sosa. That would be my ideal lineup. Hit me up. Let me know yours at JoeGilioSports on Twitter. You could always email me, joe.gilio at odyssey.com.

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