High Hopes: A Phillies Podcast - Bryson Stott Should Be The Phillies Shortstop | WIP Daily

Episode Date: May 6, 2024

With Trea Turner expected to miss six weeks, Joe Giglio thinks the Phillies best options at shortstop is moving Bryson Stott back to his natural position. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Whether the action is at the link or the bank, there's never an off day on Broad Street. It's the biggest news of the day, every day, with takes from someone who's never short on them. It's WIP Daily with Joe Giglio. Welcome on in, WIP Daily, Joe Giglio with you, appreciative. And let's subscribe and follow the podcast. And of course, our YouTube page, 94WIP. Check it out there. Want to dive into the fills today.

Trey Turner, the six-week injury to the hamstring and what they do now. Quickly, before we get any further, check out my page over at the Eagles Autism Challenge Run. I'm running in the 5K coming up on May 18th. Anything you could donate, share the page would be so appreciated. It's for a special cause. It's been running every year for the past few years. We'll be running again. The Eagles Autism Challenge.

My page. I'll tweet it out. Joe.Gilio at Odyssey.com if you want to email me, and I'll send you the direct link. Thanks so much for anything you can offer to an amazing cause. All right, let's get to the Phillies who win again last night. I was going to say sweep. They play them again on Monday.

But they win the first three against the Giants. The Phillies are now 24-11. If you look at the standings now in the NL East, they've opened up a two-and-a-half game lead on the Atlanta Braves. They have been the best team in this division now for a good period of time. You look up and look at the reality of the NL East over the past six weeks. The Phillies lost the first two games of the season. Lost the first two games of the season to the Atlanta Braves.

Since then, the Phillies are 24-9 with a plus 54 run differential. The Braves are 18-12 with a plus 20 run differential. The Braves are 18 and 12, but a plus 20 run differential. The Phillies have been, you know, the better part of four and a half games better than the Braves for a six-week period. They've been the best team in the division. I thought they'd win the division. They're playing like I thought they would. But despite the wins this weekend, a blow.

Friday night, Trey's legs helped win that game. And then he goes out. And he kind of knew it afterwards. I saw it in his face when he walked back to the dugout. And then, you know, just judging by his comments after the game, he knew it wasn't something minor. It's not, it's a six week injury. Hopefully there won't be any setbacks. Trey Turner hits the IL really having a really good start to his season hitting 343, 392 on base, 460 slugging, 852 OPS, a 145 OPS plus. The kind of numbers over a full season we all would have went

crazy for. So Trey Turner hits the I.L. and it takes away two aspects of this thing for the Phillies. It takes away their number two hitter and I'll get to the very, I think, simple solution to be the two hitter in this lineup and how Rob Topps could do this without messing much up. But then, of course, the bigger picture is who plays shortstop on a daily basis. And Muno Sosa got the first couple cracks. And now we await to see if the Phillies do something different. And really, that would mean Bryce and Stott moving back to shortstop his original position when he was drafted and a different combination, likely with Merrifield at second base. That is what I would do. I know Sosa got the first crack. And Sosa is the best

defensive shortstop on the roster. And if your objective is defense, you're going to want to just put Sosa out there and just let him do it. He's the backup shortstop. Let him do his thing. My issue with Edmundo Sosa playing shortstop, but if they want to do it against lefties, I'm fine with that. I really am. You want to give Stata Day off against lefties and against lefties, you start Sosa and you put Merrifield at second base. I'm totally okay with that. I don't mind Sosa because I've always liked him as a player. I think he hits lefties and he's a good glove at shortstop. The problem with Edmundo Sosa, and we've seen it over the course of his career,

when Edmundo Sosa gets extended playing time, he gets exposed. It's why the Cardinals traded him to the Phillies. It's why last year his OPS plus was below average. His strikeout to walk ratio, 74 strikeouts to eight walks when he got 300 plate appearances. The more he plays, the more he's exposed. He is a solid player and he's certainly a big leaguer, and he helps you. But I think the issue with Edmundo Sosa is you got to put him in the right situation. You got to put him in the right matchup. In his career, Edmundo Sosa gets left-handed pitching, has a 742 OPS. He has really done, I would say, a nice job against left-handed pitching in his career. He has 10 home runs in just 286 at-bats. He could pop one out. His slugger percentage against left-handed pitching

is 444. Against right-handed pitching, his slugger percentage drops to 369. He has a 688 OPS. He strikes out a good amount more in terms of percentages against right-handed pitching. His relative OPS goes from above average against lefties to below average against righties. He hits lefties. That's what he could do. He doesn't hit right-handed pitching. I mean, that's the bottom line. He doesn't hit right-handed pitching. And if he's going to be your shortstop every day, he's going to see a lot of right-handed pitchers. So it's going to be your shortstop every day, he's going to see a lot of right-handed pitchers. So it's going to be challenging for him to hit those guys. He's going to need to have the spots picked for him. And I think he'll get lefties as the spots that

would be better for him. Meanwhile, Whit Merrifield is just a better hitter, an above average hitter. And you look at Merrifield after that really terrible start. He was hitting one. After play on April 15th against the Rockies, Whit Merrifield was hitting 107 with a 274 OPS. Since then, he's hit 450 in 22 plate appearances. He's had a couple home runs. He has walked and struck out twice each. His OPS, 1350. He's raised his season numbers to a respectable 250, 308, 417 slash line,

a 724 OPS. If I'm writing the lineup card out for the next six weeks, and we all realized whatever they're going to do, whether it's Merrifield or Sosa taking the bulk of the at-bats that Trey Turner took, they're going to have a drop-off in production. They're not going to have as much speed. They're not going to steal as many bases. I find it hard to imagine they're going to hit 342. Now, I do think if Barrowfield gets hot for six weeks, he could hit 320. I mean, he's done that over many stretches of his career, but it's likely to be a pretty stark drop-off in production. Even if, let's say, the OPS is close. Turner was at 850-something. Yeah, Turner's at 852. If I could get 760, 770 OPS out of my replacements for Trey Turner over the next six weeks, I think the throws will be just fine.

Now, if that number's in the 600s, that's a big drop-off. Can we get it to the 700? I think the more likely guy in terms of at-bats to get the offense and keep the offense to where you need it is Whit Merrifield. He's gotten hot. This is what you signed him for. They called him almost like the 10th man. He's a starter, but on this team, he doesn't have a role. Well, here's the role. The role is now opened up because of the injury to Trey Turner.

So I would do this. I would put Merrifield at second base almost every day, and I'd put Stott at shortstop almost every day. There was a story this weekend that we're going to get Stott some work there at short because he hasn't had much the last couple of years. I mean, look, he was drafted to shortstop, played shortstop here in 2022. He could play shortstop.

It's just been a few years since he had the repetition. So they wanted to get him some work, but the rain came in. They couldn't do it. I'm good just throwing him out there. He's a ball player. Just throw Stott out there at shortstop

and let him play. I think it gives you the best chance to have the best team for the next six weeks. And as you go through this, I think the defense for Bryce's stock could be more than adequate at shortstop. We know Merrifield in his career has been a solid second baseman.

So there'll be a drop-off at second base, sure, because that's borderline gold glove kind of guy. I don't think Merrifield at this stage of his career is that kind of guy, but you have all right i'm going to circle back to the the real big picture reason why i think the stott at shortstop experiment for the next six weeks is interesting but in terms of the order okay so the question is and i think we got the we got the first answer who's going to bat second when without trey Turner here? And that answer is JT Realmuto. And I think that's the only option

they have right now for a couple of reasons. Number one, you don't want to move Boehm because he's been so red hot in the cleanup spot and he's so good at driving in runners. He has a knack for that

that you want him in that fourth spot as he's hot. Just leave it alone. Let him knock Bryson and let him knock Schwarber in and let him knock whoever's going to hit two in. Now, Trey won't be on base as much. He was on base 39%

of the time, but whoever's batting two, he can knock him in. So, Stott, excuse me, Boehm would have been a perfect consideration, but he's not because he's hitting too well at four and you kind of like that. Okay, next option, and we're going for a right-handed hitter. You want to put a righty in between Schwarber and Harper

one and three. The next obvious consideration would have been to Castellanos, and he's been so dreadful this year that it really isn't even a consideration. Nick Castellanos comes into play on May, what is today? May 6th, and he is hitting 185 with a 243 on base. He's slugging 246. on base. He's slugging 246. His adjusted OPS is 42. It's been about as bad of a start to a season as you can imagine for Castellanos. I mean, he's been downright dreadful. I mean, his OPS is almost 100 points worse than Rojas, and Rojas is a pretty bad offensive player. I mean, Rojas has a 272 OBP and a 302 slugging. Rojas' 302 slugging percentage is more than 50 points higher than Castellanos' slugging. That's a joke. I mean, so Castellanos, not a real consideration. Rojas, not a real consideration. He's a bottom of the order guy. So the only option you have right now is JT

Real Muto. Now the concern is okay, well JT can't play every day. The Phillies like to pretend he can, and they run him out there a lot. I think it's 30 of 35 games he's caught. I think it's going to affect him if they don't pull back a little bit. Now I wish Stubbs could hit a little bit more. I mean Garrett Stubbs, goodness gracious, he can't hit at all.

I wish he could hit a little bit more, and then you'd feel more comfortable. But okay, so you have Real M more and then you'd feel more comfortable, but okay. So you have Real Muto who's going to play a lot but not every day. So what do you do? And I think this is very simple. JT Real Muto is your number two hitter

in the 85% of the games, whatever the number is, 80% of the games he plays over the next six weeks. And you make sure that on the days that JT is not playing, the days he actually gets a rest, that those are definitely what Merrifield starts. Because of the options I have, if I'm taking,

if you take Real Muto off the board, you say, Joe, he's not playing today. Well, then what do I have? I have Castellanos? No. I have the option of moving Boma? Not really answered right now. I have Rojas? Not a chance. And I would have Sosa in that sense, right? I would have Sosa or Merrifield, the fill-in for Turner. And Sosa is another bottom-of-the-order kind of guy, 7-8-9. So the only option I have is that Merrifield would become my number two hitter. I don't think it's perfect. He's never walked a lot, but neither does Turner. But Turner's not a big walk guy. And early this year, Whit Merrifield, in 53 plate appearances, has four walks and five strikeouts.

That's pretty good. I mean, that's a pretty good walk-to-strikeout ratio. And, yeah, he's walked this season 7.6% of the time, only struck out 9.4%. You'd ideally like that walk number to be over 10, batting second. But that's okay. He'll put the bat on the ball. And if he's high, he'll get a bunch of hits.

So I like that. So I make sure Merrifield starts. I mean, I would start him almost every day anyway, but I'd make sure he starts. I kind of map it out together with the Real Muto day off and make sure. So every day between now and when Turner's back, my second hitters are JT Real Muto most of the time or Whit Merrifield when JT's not playing. Now, the other aspect of why I like this Stott short Merrifield as my basically everyday second baseman the next six weeks is I want to see Bryce Stott at shortstop. You know, Trey's had a nice start to the season,

and I think all of us that have been concerned about Trey short-term, long-term have taken a deep breath because he's hit. Defensively, though, he's not a very good shortstop. He's not. I mean, he almost killed them in Anaheim last week, and he's got four errors in the season. Three were really early in the one last week. On pace, you know, now it's not going to happen because of the injury.

But it was on pace for a 20-plus error season at shortstop. He's not a very good defensive shortstop. But we've all seen that now for a while. And I've wondered how long he's actually going to play shortstop for the Phillies. There's no chance he's going to finish his contract here playing shortstop. So where will he go? Will he go to center field? Will he go to left field? Will he go to second base? So what you have for the next six weeks is an opportunity to see what Bryce's thought looks like in comparison to Trey Turner. We have all the data.

We have our eyes. We have the highlights, the lowlights. We have what Trey is in a Phillies uniform at this stage of his career at shortstop. Let's see what Bryce Estat is. Bryce Estat, I wouldn't say two years ago looked like a future gold glover at shortstop. But I would guess now, just based on his trajectory as a defender, his trajectory as an athlete, his age, he'll be a better shortstop over the next six weeks. And I'll give him a couple games to get his feet wet. But I would bet he'd be a better and more consistent shortstop

than Trey Turner over the next six weeks if you put him there. Like the next six weeks of Stott at short would be better than the previous six of Turner at short. I believe that. And we'd see it. And we'd get to know. And it would inform decision-making. Now, would the Phillies put Turner at second when he got back? Is that a short?

I don't know. And probably not in the middle of a season as you're trying to win a World Series. I mean, this team's really, really good. And they're in first place. And they're playing good baseball. I wouldn't imagine they would do a shakeup like that. But it could inform for the offseason. It could inform for next year.

It could inform for a decision that could come down the line. And look, the other side of the coin is possible, too. They watch Stott. And they're like, he's not a shortstop either. And then you've got to make bigger decisions this offseason where it's like, alright, Stott, you're our second baseman. Go back. Play for the next five, six years.

Turner, you've got to go try out center field because we still love your speed and your bat picked back up and you've got a path to a nice second half of your career or last third of your career, but it's not a shortstop. And they go out and find another shortstop, and they do something different or however the machinations are of this, but it would inform. I think it gives the Phillies the best chance, more Merrifield, less Sosa.

Merrifield is a better hitter and has been a better hitter over a longer period of time. He could play second base fine. I think it gives the Phillies a better chance in the moment to win games without Trey Turner with Merrifield at second and Bryce Stiles short. I think it gives them also a big-picture view on their shortstop position, on their options when Turner's no longer able to play the position at a functional or above-average stop.

I think we're past that. He's not above-average shortstop, but I guess he's functional still at shortstop, so you just let it go because he hits and they're winning. But you have more options. You have more data for when that day comes when you want to make that switch. I think it helps for the now. It helps for the future.

Real Muto, the number two hitter, and when he has to sit, Merrifield, the number two hitter. The Phillies can get by without Turner for six weeks. They will be fine. They will win a lot of games. This Phillies team is really good, really deep, and it's going to be a big, big-time summer around

here watching this Phillies team. Appreciate everyone listening, subscribing, following WIP Daily. Again, Joe Giglio, Eagles Autism Challenge, running the 5K. Anything you could donate, I appreciate it. I'll tweet it out, and joe.gilio at odyssey.com i can send the link directly if you would like to donate thank you so much for listening being part of the

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