High Hopes: A Phillies Podcast - Can Bryce Harper Hit 500 Home Runs? | WIP Daily

Episode Date: August 31, 2023

Joe Giglio and Tucker discuss the chances Bryce Harper has of hitting 500 home runs or achieving other milestones in a Phillies uniform. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Whether the action is at the link or the bank, there's never an off day on Broad Street. It's the biggest news of the day, every day, with takes from someone who's never short on them. It's WIP Daily with Joe Giglio. Welcome on in WIP Daily, Joe Giglio with you. Appreciate everyone listening, subscribing, of course, following the podcast and watching on our 94 WIP YouTube channel. Tucker Bagel will join me in a few minutes. Leave a rating, leave a review, and leave a question wherever you leave your comment, whether it be YouTube or it be any of your podcast platforms. And we'll take those to do a mailbag episode soon here on the show. So today's got to be about Bryce Harper. I mean, yesterday, as usual,

dramatic fashion. Bryce does what he's done. He has a flair for the dramatic. He reminds me in a lot of ways of Reggie Jackson. And it's number 300 Bryce Harper. And a couple of things hit me yesterday. I mean, obviously, the player Bryce Harper is has been evident for a very long time, since he was 16 years old on the cover of Sports Illustrated and the big leagues at 19 and really having a remarkable career.

So yesterday, he got to 300 home runs. Only 28 hitters have ever gotten there quicker. And really, if not for injuries, the pandemic season, Bryce would have been there quicker. I mean, I think when he first came up, if you were to guess, you would have probably said he would have gotten there at age 29. Maybe instead of age 30, but age 30 is still pretty quick to get 300 home runs. 29 maybe instead of age 30, but age 30 is still pretty quick to get to 300 home runs. And after the game yesterday, he's talking about wanting to, you know, he has bigger goals in mind and maybe even being with the Phillies beyond the

next eight years, which is what he has left on it, on this contract. He signed the 13 year deal back before the 2019 season. So I really started thinking about Bryce Harper and how these milestones are going to go. And there's one caveat. Let's get it out of the way now. It's a big one with him because of what's happened the last few years. It's health. You know, his consistency as a performer has really not changed.

In fact, he's getting better. I mean, he has a higher OPS as a Philly and a slugger percentage as a Philly than he did with the Nationals. I mean, he's really rounded into his prime here in Philadelphia. The question with Bryce is always going to be, as he gets older, how much we project how much he's actually going to play. Now, he tries to post every day, but there's been issues. I mean, he had Tommy John surgery. He's had back flare-ups that have caused him to be in and out of the lineup

or at least not be able to play the field. What's his position? Is he going to try to play the outfield again, try throw the baseball again is he a long-term first baseman how much time will be a dh as the year goes on i i don't know i i don't know so i i think anytime you do a projection like this when you start thinking about a player in his 30s you know it'd be foolish to just say well he's going to play 162 every year or 160 each year and and whatever his 162 game average he's's going to just add that per year because the reality is he's not going to play every single day

and his body is going to probably deteriorate as he gets into his mid to late 30s. But there's also a level with this player of remarkable consistency. So let's start with home runs. Then we'll get to some other numbers. I think we can see Bryce Harper chasing a Philly's uniform. So yesterday was home run number 300 uh he's slugging 538 as a philly which pretends to a lot of home runs as time goes on you know you take that pandemic season which he lost a lot of games everyone did but his home run total would be even higher so he's a guy that on average per every 162 hits 33 home runs.

Now we just discussed it. He's not going to play 162 games a year, but that gives us a pretty good baseline. If he averages 25 home runs per season over the next eight years, which is the life of his contract with the Phillies, that's 500. I would be surprised barring an injury that takes him off the field for a season or something close to that, like a knee or something, like Brees Hoskins. I'd be surprised if Bryce Harper does not get to 500 home runs. Now, when he first came up and I first watched his swing and his power, I thought 600 were in play.

And maybe it still will be. Maybe he stays healthier than then you kind of project maybe he decides it over contract maybe he goes for i don't we'll say i when i first watched him i thought 600 was in play i that i still think 500 is going to happen because one it seems like this stuff matters to him as good for him like he's a great player and he's checking off milestones of his career and the other thing that that's you could see it. He's a great player, and he's checking off milestones in his career. And the other thing that you could see it yesterday, there's a love affair between him and the city, and I think this city will feed off of watching him chase numbers.

I think there's going to be a real interest, and maybe the Phillies smartly realized this before he even got here, that he's the type of player that people will gravitate towards and love and follow. And, you know, the Phillies right now are in a championship window. This team looks like they are poised to make, you know, noise in October again. And we'll see how long that continues. But I could foresee a scenario toward the end of his Phillies career.

Let's say the competitive window, the championship window, maybe it's closed for the Phillies, maybe they're not as good six years from now, that people still go to the ballpark to watch Bryce Harper chase numbers because he's Bryce Harper. And this doesn't happen very often in this city. I mean, it doesn't happen very often where you get to watch a player in a uniform for a long time, chase numbers in that uniform for a long time. Obviously, the last time something like this was Mike Schmidt. So I think 500 is going to happen. I think it will happen in a Phillies uniform. I think he can average 25 home runs per year over the next eight years. That feels really doable. And 25, that baseline is not a big number. And then you start thinking about it. All he needs is one or two big years in there to lift if he has a couple down years if those numbers in his age 36

season is only 24 or 20 or 21 like if he has a couple 37s left in him 39s left in him which i think he does then then he's going to get there so i think he's going to chase and get to 500 home runs could he get to more maybe i mean he's got to stay healthy and or sign another contract which he did hint at yesterday that he wants to do it. So 500 home runs, I believe, is very doable. And I would bet on Bryce Harper to get to 500 home runs. Now, hits is interesting. So Bryce Harper has 1,493 hits in his career.

So he's about halfway to 3,000. This is going to be harder for him because he walks so much. I always think hitters that walk a lot have trouble getting to 3,000 hits. Now, it's not everyone. There's some 3,000 hit guys that walked a lot. But you look at the guys that had the most walks, the guys that averaged 80, 100 walks a year, they don't get typically to 3,000 hits because it's just plate appearances that are off the board. And then if you start missing some time, you lose games. You know, Bryce Harper's only had 150 or more hits in a season twice. That's not big. I mean, that's not a high number. The 3,000 hit guys usually are in that 180, 190, 200 and above range

on a pretty consistent basis because you just need to stack up years and years and years of hits. So he has averaged more than a hit per game over his career, but he didn't play enough games to get over that 150 hits per season. The way I view this one is if you kind of use the number of 140, I came up with 140, 25 home runs, 140 hits. If you do 140 hits a year for the next eight years on average, he'd be about at 25, 2600 hits when his Phillies contract is over. Now, that may be enough for him if he feels healthy to chase that. And that might be actually more attainable than maybe 600 home runs. You know, maybe he's hanging out in that 510 home run range,

you know, eight years from now. But he's got 2,611 hits and he thinks, you know, three more years, if I can stay healthy and someone will let me play, maybe the Phillies, I can chase 3,000 hits. So I think that is possible. But with his injury history, the fact that he walks so much, I think it's unlikely. I view Bryce Harper as more in the 2,700 hit range when his career is over with over 500 home runs. Now, the next two, I think these are interesting.

We have one here on the screen and then one that I think is even more of kind of a rare club. And I'm not sure which one matters more to Bryce. We'll see. And they kind of do both at the same time because they're similar. But runs batted in, he has 872. And 2,000 is a big round number for runs batted in. Not many guys have ever gotten there. And the same thing with runs.

I'll get to that in a second. But Bryce Harper with RBIs, when he was younger, it felt less attainable because he would hit the top of the order sometimes. But he's settled in now. He's a third or fourth hitter with the Phillies, even though there's been opportunities here over the last X number of years

where they could have put him at the top of the lineup. I mean, they really haven't had perfect leadoff hitters. Whether it be Andrew McCutcheon and McCutcheon got hurt, and they tried a whole bunch of different players out there. And then obviously, Schwab and Schwab over the last couple of years. But they could have put Bryce at the top of the order at any of these years. He gets on base enough. He sees enough pitches. They've chosen not to. It feels like he's wanted to ascend to that run-producing position. And with that, he's going to rack up more runs batted in. I don't think he's going to get to 2,000.

1,500 feels like a really attainable number. Could he get it to the 1,800 range? Yeah, he probably can, but that's one that is also dependent on people around you and depending on playing time. I think people would have imagined he has more runs batted in than he does. That number almost feels low. It's like, man, only 872 for all the years. But here's the one that caught me when I was looking at it yesterday. He has now scored

979 runs in the major leagues. There's a good chance, decent chance. He gets to 1,000 runs scored before the end of the season. So he could end his age 30 season with 300 home runs. Obviously, he's already there. With 1,500 hits, he'll get there with seven more hits. That'll be next week. And he could, 21 more runs the rest of the way. A big number, but with the way the Phillies are hitting, it's certainly doable. He could end this season with 1,000 runs scored. The number of players in baseball history that have scored 1,000 runs, and I'm sure Bryce Harper knows this because he knows his baseball history,

and he knows how rare this group is. It is Alex Rodriguez, Willie Mays, Pete Rose, Babe Ruth, Henry Aaron, Ty Cobb, Barry Bonds, and Ricky Henderson. That's it. It is a very select group of players that get to 2,000 runs scored, and I think Bryce Harper could get there. Now, this is a combination of his own power. He hits his own way in, right, with the home run.

So if we're just throwing at least 200 more home runs on top, that's at least 200 more runs he does all by himself. And then his walks and his on-base percentage get him on base. And I'd imagine the Phillies are going to consistently put players around him that could knock him in, you know, whether they whether developing players like an Alec Boehm, who it's well run as a score position behind him, or buying the next Nick Castellanos. Whenever Castellanos runs out in a few years,

they'll go get another fourth, five hitter outfielder that could knock some runs in and knock him in when he's on base. So that one feels like something I could see him chasing, those kind of round numbers. And it almost works with everything else, because if he's hitting home runs, he's scoring anyway. So I think he's getting to 500 home runs in a Phillies uniform. I don't project 3,000 hits. I don't think he'll get to 2,000 runs batted in.

It's a very big number. But the runs scored is the one that hit me. I think he could become, what is that, 3, 6, only the 9th guy to ever score 2,000 runs. And there's might be a couple playing right now that maybe will be there with him. Maybe Mookie Betts has a chance. Maybe Freddie Freeman. I got to look at their numbers. But yeah, whatever. Whoever. Maybe someone else currently.

But I think he'll be one of 10 or so to ever get to 2,000 runs along with the 500 runs. Tucker, number 300 for Bryce Harper yesterday. And I feel like it was almost like a glimpse of the future as we watch him and, you know, very proudly and with the crowd here, like just basking in chasing these numbers.

Yeah, it certainly won't be in the last milestone. I think Bryce Harper celebrates as a Philadelphia Philly. And I think that's kind of why he's here. Like he talks about how much he loves being a part of this franchise and I think more so he enjoys kind of breaking and setting those marks at home in front of a crowd who's so excited and and and so far behind him and it's kind of funny I was thinking about this last week you know this is his fifth year as a Philly which is pretty crazy because it feels like just yesterday he signed here but through five years he's only got 230 home run seasons

he only has one year with 100 rbis the phillies only have you know two winning seasons he has yet to play in an all-star game if you told somebody in 2019 when he signed the contract through five years they're gonna have zero all-stars 230 home run seasons and 100 rbi season they'd say oh my god that that's terrible that you know and i think right now if you pulled anybody i think you'd be really hard pressed to find anyone who would say yeah you know what i wish we didn't sign him to the contract like the fact that he's been able to be huge in so many big moments has kind of overshadowed the fact that a lot of his counting stats really aren't there and it's not necessarily his fault that, you know,

2020 happened the way it was. And he missed, you know, a big chunk of last year due to injury and the beginning of this year. But I think that's going to be the biggest issue for him. And it's unfortunate because I think there's a sort of generation of superstars, including Bryce Harper. You can throw Mike Trout in there. Mookie Betts, you mentioned, who kind of had like a year of their prime

just sort of shaved off because of the pandemic. And I think there's going to be a situation where maybe, you know, a decade from now, Bryce Harper might be at, you know, 475 home runs. And he's going to be hanging on trying to get those last 25 that he probably could have gotten had things just worked out a little differently. And they played a full season back in 2020. And I think like you, the biggest issue for him moving forward is just him staying healthy is what he's on the field. He he's as productive as he's ever been,

say for maybe his first MVP season where he was just, you know, on another planet for, for that, you know, entire year, but he's still dealing with back problems on like a day-to-day basis. He hasn't really found a way to play first base every day without being injured. I just, I wonder as we sit here and look at his future and project all this, what he's going to look like when he's 40. I don't know. Is he still playing them?

Like, I just wondered with how violent his swing is and how hard he plays on a day-to-day basis. I don't know if he can necessarily hold up that, that long and him playing at 38, 39, 40 might not look exactly how we think it will. Up to that last point you made Tucker.

And that's, it never looks the way you think it will. I mean, we've, I've seen, you've seen so many baseball players limp to the end. I mean, look at Miguel Cabrera now, Joey Votto now, Eddie Murray towards the end of his career. This happens all the time. So is it going to be pretty? Is it going to be a steady 25, 25, 25 for the next eight years? Probably not. And who knows, maybe, maybe it turns out he signs an extra contract with the Phillies.

So just to get over those times, it's funny to end with this. Then that pandemic did took away a hundred games, but roughly from every great player. I just pulled up Mookie Betts's numbers because of the same, you know, this is both their age 30 season. It's, it's remarkable how similar they are, even though you don't think of them as similar players. Mookie and Bryce are about 30 hits from each other and runs scored. It's nearly identical. So they may chase 3,000 hits together. Mookie's probably a better bet to get there with his batting average.

And they probably chase 2,000 runs scored together at the same age. We'll see who stays healthier and all that kind of stuff. But as far as home runs, it's not the first. I guess it is the first. Milestone home run. But it's the first of many. 400. I think it'll get to 500 and some other big ones along the way and this crowd will be behind him the whole time it is fun bryce harper milestones are a big part of his career now moving forward it will be for a while appreciate everyone watching subscribing listening

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