High Hopes: A Phillies Podcast - Can the Phillies Catch the Braves? | WIP Daily

Episode Date: June 19, 2023

Joe Giglio and Tucker Bagley discuss the Phillies' chances to win the NL East ahead of a three-game series against Atlanta. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Tucker Bagley will join me in a few minutes to jump on here and discuss. I mean, the Phillies are playing excellent baseball. I mean, they go on a six-in-one road trip, sweep the A's, which is not really an accomplishment, but at the same time, the A's had played some decent baseball for being as bad as they are for about a week and then won six straight at one point. So it was not a lot the Phillies were going to go in there and sweep them. I said Friday, I will take two out of three. Just don't lose the series. You can't lose a series at the Oakland Athletics. Well, the Phillies go in there and sweep a pair of Kyle Schwarber leadoff home runs. And now it really kind of sets the stage for the Phillies to have a chance

at doing something that a month ago seemed crazy. And I know the projections right now, if you go look at projection systems or odds, probably will still say it's crazy. But I don't think it is, and that is to run down and catch the Atlanta Braves in the NL East. Look, I'm not saying the Phillies are going to do this, but I do give them a chance to. I think the Phillies have a chance to still win the NL East. And it's a little bit because the Phillies are kind of rounding into the form

I thought they would be at, which is, you know, I thought they'd win about 90 games. I thought this team was a little bit better than last year's team on paper. That was, of course, before the Reese Hoskins injury, but I still thought they were a team that could win about 90 games I thought this team was a little bit better than last year's team on paper that was of course before the resuskin injury but I still thought they were a team that could win around 90 games now tough start to the season I kind of dialed that back I was like yeah they're not really that good the negative run differential still there I mean they're still not fully out of the woods yet but they're playing better they've won some close games and I also think as we get set for the Braves to come in to Philadelphia tomorrow for three games

I think the Braves are a little bit overinflated right now. Like, they're obviously really good. They're the favorite. You look below the surface with the Braves, there's some issues that I think at some point will come back to get them. I mean, their offense is incredible. It is probably the best offense in the National League. Their numbers are off the charts. Almost every batter in that lineup, well above average.

Power, speed, everything. Home runs, the whole thing. But they have had some kind of weird luck where they've gotten away with having their pitcher without having a lot of their pitchers. I don't know if that can last all season, their starting pitchers. And we'll get to the schedule stuff where I think it just fits the Phillies more than it fits the Braves. So let's just talk about the series coming up and what the situation is. So the Phillies are eight games back of the Atlanta Braves,

which is incredible because the Phillies have played great baseball. Like the fact that they're still eight back, you know, almost any other stretch of the season, the Phillies play this kind of baseball for two, two plus weeks. They probably shave off three or four games from the Braves. It's just, it's just what happened because that's just normal. All right. You go 13 and two in a 15 game stretch. You're probably going to shave off three or four games from the Braves. It's just what happened because that's just normal. You go 13-2 in a 15-game stretch, you're probably going to shave off some games. Well, the Braves have been just as hot, if not hotter, than the Phillies,

so it hasn't worked out that way. So the Phillies still sit eight, but they do have an opportunity here this week with Atlanta coming in to kind of put their foot in this race for real. Winning two out of three cuts this to seven. That's probably the realistic goal. If the Phillies could somehow sweep this series and get this to five, their chances, like you might be watching this right now, listening to this right now and saying, eight back, this Phillies team,

they just got hot. They can't stay any hotter. Very little chance to win the division. If the Phillies sweep, the storyline going into the weekend is going to be the Phillies can and very well might win the division. So this is a major, major series. A series loss, and we could probably write this thing off. A series victory, and there's certainly the kind of life we're talking about right now. A sweep of the Braves, and it feels like the Phillies will have tremendous life to go and try to win this division.

And let's not forget, for as much as these deficits seem so large in the moment, the Phillies from around June on last year, you know, we're not that far back. If you look at the standings, June, July, August, September, then the Braves obviously beat them in the postseason. So if the Phillies really are doing what they did last year, which is screw around the first two months, look like garbage, play like garbage, and then June happens and they just catch crazy fire, well, I mean, we saw last year the Mets and Braves, I think it was a 10-game gap in the NL East, and it was overcome.

It was the Braves coming back on the Mets. And the Phillies kind of worked their way, if you just look at the standings, June, July, August, September, not that far back of those two teams. So there's clearly a thing in the NL East where the team that jumps out to the front doesn't always win this thing or doesn't always play that level of baseball the entire time. I know the Braves are 20 games over 500. I see it. But I don't believe with their pitching issues right now, they're going to stay there. Let's dive into some reasons for hope for the Phillies to win this division, the kind of tangible things you could kind of hold on to, especially as you get

ready to watch these games. The first one, and it will kind of even itself out this week, it'll start to even itself out, but you look at the breakdown of home and road games played so far. The Phillies have played nine less home games than the Atlanta Braves. The Braves have had a early season schedule chock full of home games. The Phillies have had more road games. Nine is a big difference. And if you look at the schedule, you know, it will kind of stay even for a little while here.

I mean, the Phillies will have this homestand here. But the Phillies will have more road games than home games until you get to the month of August. Go look at the Phillies' schedule in August. It is certainly manageable. There are a lot of teams on there they can beat, and they play almost all their games at home. It is a remarkable month.

I mean, I'm telling you right now, if the Phillies keep playing well, great. If they have a little bump in July, which just looks like a tougher schedule on the road in Miami, on the road in Tampa, All-Star break San Diego, it's not easy July with the All-Star break sandwich in there. Don't lose hope because August sets the Phillies up to win a lot of games. They're a better home team. They have been that for – I mean, most teams are. But the Phillies are a much better home team.

They get a lot of games at home in August, and they have nine more home games the rest of the season than the Braves. So that's one big thing. Another thing that I think matters, it kind of reminds me of last year with the Nationals. The Nationals are not as bad as they were last year. I still think they're a bottom three team in baseball. They're a bottom three or four team in baseball this season, other than Oakland, who both the Phillies and Braves have now finished playing against. No more games against the A's for either team. Other than Oakland,

the two worst teams record-wise in baseball right now, Kansas City and Washington. And if you look at it, the Braves have played their games against Kansas City. They swept them. And the Phillies have more left against the Nats. So if you just look at that discrepancy, the Phillies have 13 games left against the Nats and the Royals. The Braves only have seven.

And that's a pretty big gap there, that six-game difference. So when the Phillies are playing those two teams six more times, which really should be four or five wins, the Braves are playing more at least mediocre representative teams. So that's another thing to keep an eye on. Nine extra home games the rest of the season starting this week. Six more games against the Nationals and the Royals. I think both of those things are big ones.

And the other one that kind of strikes me as we get ready for the series is the Phillies have played the Braves pretty even for, I would say, about three years now. I mean, you look at the games and the Braves have won way more, just year to year, you know, 10 games here, 12 games here, maybe 20 games in whatever season, you know, whatever it's been. The Braves have won more games than the Phillies over the years. But as the years have gone on, let's say the Phillies started to try to compete in 2018.

They signed Arrieta and Carlos Santana, and they hired Gabe. They tried to start competing in 2018. In 2018, 2019, especially 2018, it felt like the Braves was on a different level head-to-head. They won those divisions head-to-head. They beat the Phillies, especially 2018, it felt like the Braves was on a different level head-to-head. They won those divisions head-to-head. They beat the Phillies, especially down in Atlanta. That started to change the last couple of years. The discrepancy has been the other games.

But when they play each other, it doesn't feel like that. I think the Braves are better. They have more players up and down the roster you kind of fear than the Phillies. But the games are pretty even. The series are pretty even. They played once this year down in Atlanta. It was the four-game split. The Phillies were winning 2-1.

They threw Dylan Covey in the Sunday night game against Strider, and that was it. So I wouldn't be surprised in the nine games remaining against each other, three this week and then six in September, if the two teams play kind of even. And it wouldn't also shock me if the Phillies won 5 out of 9 or 6 out of 9. That could happen with the way this series has been. They go to the playoffs last year. So I don't think the Phillies fear the Braves.

I don't think playing them head-to-head is a real big thing for the Phillies. They've done it a lot. They beat them in the postseason last year. So I could see the Phillies gaining a game or two just head-to-head, maybe three this week. But just head-to- head, the Phillies could gain a game or two. So you have the nine extra home games. You have the six extra games against the Royals and Nationals. And then you have the fact that head to head, they play them pretty well or kind of straight up here. And then the last thing, and then we'll bring Tucker on to kind of talk about

his thoughts on the team and if the Phillies can actually do this, is as much as the Braves are winning right now, I don't think this is sustainable at this level without their pitchers back. I mean, Spencer Strider has hit a really rough patch. I mean, he doesn't look anything like he did earlier in the season or he did most of last year. He's ERA's round four. Kyle Wright has been out basically the entire season,

20-game winner from last year, the number two starter of the playoffs. And the Braves are saying late August is when Kyle Wright could come back. Max Freed, probably their most consistent starter, kind of Cole Hamels-ish, good left-handed pitcher. He's been out for a while with a forearm strain. They're saying maybe late July for him. So we're still another month-plus from Freed, two months-plus from Kyle Wright.

I know the Braves have a great farm system and they bring up these young guys, Bryce Elder, the kids pitching this week, and they give them decent innings and then they bombs away and they win these games, you know, seven to four. That's great for them. And they're going to go to the playoffs

because they have this kind of depth and this farm system and this great offense. But i'm not sure they could keep up this pace without their top you know without any of their three pitchers right now pitching how they were supposed to striders not pitching it the way he is and their two guys are hurt so i think the braves are going to come back to the pack the phillies have some scheduling advantages they don't fear playing the braves i really wouldn't be surprised if the Phillies can be in this thing. You know, the gap from here, are we going to see a division where the Braves run away with it by 15 games,

or are the Phillies going to get this to five or six or four and give us something to kind of latch on to the entire summer? I think the Phillies have a chance, more of a chance than the projection systems say. Still unlikely, but I do give them a slight chance here, Tucker, to make this a division race for all the things I said. Plus, and we saw this last year. It's crazy.

The Phillies in June, it's like the season just turns. It's out of nowhere. Yeah, and it's kind of funny because you feel silly banking on it. I felt that way with Kyle Schorber. We're sitting like $1.67 coming into june and everyone laughs and jokes as well you know june shorebird will come and sure enough right as rain like it just happened and he had another lead off home run yesterday and i just think the frustrating thing is this is a team that's now gone 13 and four since the calendar slipped to june and they were eight games back when the month started and

there's still eight games back like there were five games back when they were 20 and 21 in the middle of May like they they played really good baseball and unfortunately the Braves and Marlins have both kind of played with them step for step over the last three weeks the team that they're now closest to in the playoff on is the Dodgers who have struggled the last couple weeks early game back at them for the wild card but I find it funny and I thought it was interesting this offseason no one ever talked about the Phillies winning the division right like that wasn't a goal it was man we were two wins away from you know being world champions let's go try and figure that out it was never we were 14 game back of the Braves and Mets how can we make up that ground and right now the

the way the Braves have played kind of the the guys that they're getting contributions from I mean Bryce Elder who's never really a top prospect has been their number one pitcher and really been atop that rotation him and Charlie Morton have probably been their two most consistent starters this season I think this weekend it or this upcoming three game series against Atlanta at home, it's going to be a big deal for the Phillies. Cause if they can take two out of three and kind of get the ball rolling or maybe sweep against the team that, you know, I think if you go back and look the start of this run probably was them

splitting in Atlanta and kind of trying to get the ball rolling towards the end of May, it could be a big positive step and you know eight games when you still have what do they have left like 90 I think they have you know less than 100 but they're still not the halfway point yet that's not a ton I mean you have a run like this or the Braves you know can't win for two weeks you're right back in it So I certainly think there's a shot. It's just, it's tough to see because we really haven't seen this team get to that 94, 95 wind mark where you can kind of see the Braves trending that way,

even if things aren't going great. I mean, remember this team as great as they were in October, they only won 87 games last year. And for them to reach that, you know, 93, 94, 95 wind mark that it'll probably take to win the division they're gonna have to play like this not just for two weeks but probably a month a month and a half well it's a good point on the number right that we've probably shut up that kind of goal in our head and phillies need to too like what it's going to take yeah it's

almost like styles make fights if the braves are going to win 100 it's over the phillies aren't getting 100 wins this year the phillies are not going to win 100 it's over the Phillies aren't getting 100 wins this year the Phillies are not going to play at that kind of pace and only lose like 28 games the rest of the season it's not going to happen that's that's not going to happen but if this division could be won in the in the low 90s or mid 90s 93 94 the Phillies could do that I mean before the season I think I said 91 I mean I kind of put them in that range I thought they were improved from last year I thought they'd be a good team and a 91. I mean, I kind of put them in that range. I thought they were improved from last year. I thought they'd be a good team and a playoff team.

And then I kind of walked it back and said, uh-oh, maybe not. It's going to be 80s again. And right now, to be fair, they have a negative run differential. But the Phillies have a chance this week. I mean, this is crucial. I mean, really, if there's any chance they're going to win the division, they win this series. If they fall nine back with only six head-to-head against the Braves left, won't see them again to make up that major ground until September, it's hard to see.

But there are some advantages. There are nine extra home games. The Royals and the Nationals today went six extra games against those teams down the stretch of the season. That's a lot, especially in a league that has a lot of parity. There's like four or five awful teams. You've got to beat them up. And the Phillies will get more of those awful teams down the stretch

than the Braves. And the fact they don't kind of fear playing them. They haven't for a few years. They're pretty even when they play each other. The division is no longer out of the question. Incredible run by the Phillies. Of course, concurrently, incredible run by the Braves. But now, head-to-head, it's going to be fun.

I give the Phillies a small chance, morely a credible run by the Braves, but now, head-to-head, it's going to be fun. I give the Phillies a small chance. More than I did a couple weeks ago, more than I think the projection systems do now. I give the Phillies still a chance to win the NLEs. This week, though, will go a major way of sweep, and I think a lot of people are feeling this. Thank you for listening. Thank you for watching WIP Daily. Back tomorrow.

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