High Hopes: A Phillies Podcast - Early Spring Training Takeaways As The Jake Arrieta Watch Continues

Episode Date: February 24, 2018

James Seltzer and Jack Fritz give their early takeaways from Spring Training, including first impressions of Gabe Kapler, pitching staff analysis, and more. Plus, the guys continue the Jake Arrieta watch, offering their thoughts on what it would take to get him, the liklihood of it happening, and the impact he would have on the team for 2018 and beyond. See omnystudio.com/policies/listener for privacy information. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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So go ahead. You can afford to hoard because Ikea is priced for student life. Shop everything you need for back to school at Ikea today. Yo, it is another episode of High Hopes. I am your host, James Seltzer, and with me, it is my distinct pleasure to welcome in the pitching guru himself, Mr. Jack Fritz. Fritzy, what's up, buddy? Producer slash sometimes host, now pitching guru. I think I'm moving up. I'm moving up in this podcast. I think there's no question. It's just like a meteoric rise. Who knows when it's going to end? This podcast is taking off.

It's right. We got high hopes, and we're going as high as those hopes are. How about that? Second level stuff. That's right. And for the first time in a while, we are talking to each other while the Phillies are playing some baseball, which is pretty exciting. Pretty exciting.

Now, if the podcast starts going off the rails, it's only because we're watching dylan bundy yeah yes luckily uh a meaningless game but it is exciting they're never meaningless that's a false claim yeah totally meaningless game but there are meaningful things that will happen in that game how about that jack why don't we start there man uh we haven't talked on the air obviously uh for those who don't know, Jack and I talk baseball ad nauseum. It's the only thing we text about nonstop. In the middle of football season. Yeah, totally. I'll be producing the midday show.

We'll be talking Eagles, and I'll get a Phillies text from Jack just out of nowhere, and I love it. Can we talk about something? Yeah, exactly. And it's always a Phillies thing. So we're just going to kind of carry those text message conversations over here. Let's start with spring training, man. We haven't talked on the air since spring training started. What's the feel for you of having Phillies baseball back? It feels like a breath of fresh air.

It really does. My baseball team is a modern baseball team. We have entered into the 21st century. They're shifting every single play. They bring in a catching instructor just to teach these guys how to frame. They are a modern baseball team. And even though it took a little while, I'm glad we're there. We're there.

It feels great. Kapler, it seems like the players are buying into what he's saying. I'm happy. I'm very happy. Me too. And let's start with Kapler because I was going to get to that later, but you brought him up. Let's start. First impressions of Kapler, because I was going to get to that later, but you brought him up. Let's start. First impressions of Kapler.

I know that a lot of people, and maybe we were scarred in Philadelphia by the whole Chip Kelly thing and all that, but a lot of people seem to be a little put off by Kapler, by his kind of the way he goes about things, the Chip Kelly-ness of him and all that. I know we're both big fans of him, and we'll get into why, but I just want to start by saying, people, remember, this guy played in the major leagues for over a decade. He played for six different teams. This is not just some analytics guy coming in with no player background,

no baseball background. This guy has been around the game his entire life. He has been through the 162-game grind. He knows what it takes to be part of a clubhouse. He knows what it takes to be successful through a full season. And for me, I think the positivity, the energy, the constant, you know, go, go, go type of attitude over 162 game season, that's the type of thing that you need. You need a guy who's going to be able to pick guys up over the course of the season. What have you been your, I know we both were, we're big on cavalry of high expectations going in what are your first impressions uh i think the chip kelly narrative is is so lazy in a way because chip kelly didn't care about other people like chip kelly chip kelly didn't care about his players anything like that he only cared about chip and

feeding his ego because he thought he's going to revolutionize the entire league. And Gabe's not that way. If you listen to Gabe, he's very engaging. Now, he's a close talker. He gets a little close, which makes me feel uncomfortable, and I don't like when people are very interested in what I'm saying because I'm used to people not being interested in what I have to say ever. So that was a little intense, very intense,

and I think he's going to have to learn how to manage being intense for 162 games which it's going to be a learning process you can't grind a guy for you know if he's going through a slump you have to accept and move on and and understand the ebbs and flows of baseball and gabe played the game he that. He knows how intense he is. He is very self-aware of how intense he is. He is like, what is Rob Lowe's character in Parks and Rec? Chris Traeger, baby. That is who he is. He is.

That is exact. That is the best comp for Gabe Kapler that I've heard. Gabe Kapler. Gabe Kapler. Yeah. That's how he memorizes names, apparently. Just kidding. It doesn't shock me at all.

And Perkins. But the fact that he was smart enough, and I don't know if it's him or the analytics department or whatever, to have the vision of batting Carlos Santana in the leadoff role today just shows you how far this baseball team has gone. Freddie Galvis was batting two last year. He batted two for way too many games last year. Yeah, he was with a 280 on base percentage.

Every single time. 300 on base percentage. It may be mad. Now we've got to reach Hoskins in the two hole. They've come so far. I'm so proud of them. I am really happy where this team is with Gabe Kapp. It's a very progressive organization all of a sudden.

We went from kind of the dark ages to the revolution very quickly. But I'm with you 100%. Santana bad leadoff sometimes in Cleveland. It's good for Terry Francona. It's good for me. That's the way I look at it. He's been in the top 10 of getting first pitch

balls in baseball. 7 out of 8 years I think. He's got a career 366 on base percentage. He's a guy who's been in the league for almost a decade and never misses games. He is as consistent a guy who can get on base as you will find in Major League Baseball outside of Joey Votto. He's like that next tier down of guys with the ability to get on base. Batting him in the leadoff, it's such an old notion to be like,

we've got to put fast guys at the top of the lineup. No, you don't. Just get someone who's going to get on base. It's not that confusing. It's not that hard. And then on top of that, I know Santana, for some reason, people look at him as this lumbering, DH kind of guy. He's a really good first baseman.

The gold glove caliber first baseman. Gold glove caliber first baseman and can move a little bit. He's not fast on the base pass, but he's not a total zero. Well, Big Dog's put on some weight since he moved from catcher. It's fine. True. It's perfectly fine. Yeah, he's a professional hitter.

And, you know, sure, you love a guy that can have speed at the top of the lineup with a good OBP. I'd rather take a guy that can get on base automatically. And it feels like him, Cesar, and Reese, and JP are guys that have a great eye for the strike zone. And approach, and a great approach. They are going up there looking to work the count, work the pitcher, get a pitch to hit.

They understand hitting and an approach hitting, which your boy Michael Franco struggles to. So I've been squatting on this take for a while. Ooh. And I've been waiting to dish it out. Ooh! Yeah, I've been waiting to dish it out on this edition of High Hopes. I think Reese Hoskins is our Anthony Rizzo.

Ooh, look at that. I think he's going to be as good as Anthony Rizzo. He's going to be the face of the change of Phillies baseball. Reese Hoskins, the next Anthony Rizzo-type player for our team. I could see it. Rizzo hits, what, 30, 35 homers a year? Bats in the high 280s, low 300 team i could see it rizzo hits what 30 35 homers a year that's in the high 280s low 300s i see it if my eyes are trusting what i'm seeing i study the cubs rebuild pretty closely they have the same mannerisms oh yeah well i mean i think the cubs

houston those rebuilds are clearly what this is being modeled after similar types of organizational philosophies i would say at least in terms of analytics based and looking for market inefficiencies and all that type of stuff. But yeah, it's not a carbon copy per se, but I like that comp. I think he's not quite as athletic as Rizzo. No. He can't move over and play second base all of a sudden. He's not quite as good a runner.

Rizzo will steal you some bases. Talking about the plate. I really like that comp. And I think he has, let's put it this way, I think Hoskins has a better approach at the plate than Rizzo did when he first came up. Obviously, Hoskins is a little older. Yeah, Rizzo was horrible.

Right, Rizzo was horrible. All right, let's say that when Rizzo first broke out is a better way to put it. I think Hoskins is coming in at least approach-wise at a higher level than Rizzo was. And I'm with you. He might not be quite as naturally talented as Rizzo, but I think he's a smarter, better hitter. Now let's talk about the change in the Phillies real quick. Because as we're watching this game right now, Jorge Alfaro just laid off a 2-0, a borderline strike, and got called for a ball. Jorge Alfaro's worked a 3-0 count. This team might not lose all year. Jorge Alfaro's worked a 3-0 count.

This team might not lose all year. Alfaro did show some ability to work a little bit of a count last year here and there, but in the minors. Oh, buddy. See ya. Like tower power, baby. But that's the thing with Alfaro. Look, I know I'm a little higher on Alfaro than you are. No, I'm higher.

I love that they brought the catching guy in there to kind of work on framing that i mean that is the next kind of level of where pitching is going is is the other side the the second part of that battery is becoming a much bigger deal you see guys like roberto perez in cleveland and guys who can make a real difference with the framing pitch look at the washington nationals for the last five years jose lobaton and Wilson Ramos have gotten so many BS strikes against us. It keeps me up at night. The fact that they looked ahead, brought in a guy like a guy who is a Yale catching instructor, which is great because it's another way to make this

team better on the field immediately. Now, I know it sounds like such a minute thing to get worked up about, but if you can get strikes here or there, it can add wins to ballgames and change a game right on its face. So getting a guy to focus only on that and make a guy like Jorge Alfaro, who has all the offensive potential in the world but needs to work on his defensive side, he already has really soft hands behind the plate work on his other defensive things i think i think bringing in a guy specifically there to make alfaro better is only going to make alfaro better going forward and help him fully

reach his potential i totally agree with you and that's the key with alfaro we just saw it right there the guy's gonna have some power he's gonna give you a bat out of the catcher spot i don't know if he's ever gonna kind of be with that organizational philosophy of being a super high OBP guy because, like you just said, he does struggle a bit at taking pitches and not swinging itself out of the strike zone. But he's got rare power for a guy behind the plate, and he's got a cannon of an arm.

Absolute cannon. 80 grade. He was graded with an 80 arm on the 20 to 80 scouting scale. For those who don't know, scouting, for some reason, is graded on a 20 to 80 scale, which has always been like, that doesn't make any sense. But he's got an 80 arm. He has the best arm a catching prospect can have in a scout's eyes. And then if you can add in the actual ability to frame,

the ability to handle a staff, to learn, all that type of stuff, I agree, I think that's going to be crucial. I think the Phillies this offseason have brought in people to help their young players develop they've brought in the catching instructor for alfaro santana to help franco it just feels like they've brought they've really keyed in on bringing in people from outside the organization coaching staff players wise they're only going to build around the young core they have and help them reach their full potential. Yeah, Juan, it seems like they're kind of like we saw with the Eagles

when Joe Douglas came in here and they talked about having a different set of eyes. You know, someone who looks at organizational philosophy and the way they do things from a different perspective or a different way. I think the Phillies have been kind of doing that as well with the moves they've made and the people they brought in and, of course, the robust analytics department. All right, so we kind of are clearly both, we've talked already on this show about how high we are on the offensive side of things, the ability for these guys to get on base,

to score runs, especially, like you mentioned, guys like Hoskins and Crawford, when they grow and they continue with, at this age, at this level of their maturity, especially, like you mentioned, guys like Hoskins and Crawford, when they grow and they continue with, at this age, at this level of their maturity, especially a guy like Crawford, who's so young, to have that type of approach at the plate is really ahead of their time. And I think that's something that's really going to benefit this offense. But the pitching's going to be the issue. We know, I think we both feel pretty good about where the bullpen's at. Let's talk about the starting rotation.

I think we both feel pretty good about where the bullpen's at. Let's talk about the starting rotation. Obviously, the big thing still kind of hanging out there is the Jake Arrieta situation. We've kind of started to hear rumblings. Clint Tack, McPhail. More and more rumblings, too. More and more. Those guys know him from Baltimore. I hadn't thought about that going in.

That's an interesting kind of little wrinkle to this. At the same time, he's also horrible in Baltimore. Right, but he was someone who they always thought was going to be good and for some reason wasn't able to put it together until he went somewhere else. But I think that they always believed in him. And just knowing the guy has to help, it's obviously coming down to the number of years.

The Phillies clearly would like it to be three at a higher AAV. I heard you bringing that up on the A.A.V. I said AAV on the Midday Show and I get ripped. I'm like, but I explained it before. I'm like, the average annual value, the amount that they're getting per year, they want it to be higher regardless. Luckily, our High Hopes listeners are smart enough to know this. They are.

And Joe's, I mean, he probably stopped watching baseball in what, the 80s? 80s, 90s? Is that the last time? I think he jumped back in for 08. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Then he was right back out. I was proud of you, though. I was like, you know what, James?

I'm glad you went inside baseball on the radio because it's our job, a perpetual willingness to educate. Exactly. And to not think that our audience is not smart enough to understand these concepts. You know what I mean? Now you're talking to the evening show crowd. Welcome. That's exactly right, baby.

Look at that. Look at you. But obviously, it's going to come down to the AAV. We've heard rumblings that maybe even the Phillies will be willing to go to four years. Where do you stand on the whole Jake Arrieta thing? So I am a firm believer in the playoff tax. I think the playoff tax is a real thing. It's just when teams go late into the postseason and for the

cubs example uh the year before they won the world series was the nl they went to the nlcs then the world series then they went to the nlcs again that's a lot of uh innings on a guy on a guy like jake garrida it's just a lot of innings that he's going to get over time the playoff tax i think is a real thing. Me too. And last year, you saw that at the beginning of the year, started off a little bit slow. And then in August, he picked it right back up.

He allowed like two runs in August, and that's right when his body was starting to get back into the kind of shape you need him to get into. And then he had a little bit of a hamstring pull in September. I think that kind of hurt him to end the season. I'm going off of what I saw in August and him kind of rebounding from the long playoff runs they were in. I watched his NLCS start like two days ago. Nerd. Yeah, real nerded out. The fastball location wasn't really where I wanted it to be, but he's also a guy that was dealing with a hamstring. Those things do

affect your mechanics, whether or not you like it or not. I think he's a, he's smart enough pitcher to where he has to realize he can't throw 94 to 96 anymore. And now he's got to operate at 92. Like he dropped his average velocity dropped last year from like 94 to 92.6 significant. And it's going to take a year to, it takes a little while to adjust to that.

You have to adjust to 92. And I think he's smart enough. So I, I am bullish on the future of Jake Arrieta. I know it doesn't look like that because he had a high 3, low 4 ERA last year, but Verlander also went through the same kind of thing.

Look at where Verlander is now. In 2014, Verlander had a 4-3-2 ERA, I think, and then he had to learn how to pitch where he is now. It helped that his fastball jumped back up to 99, but he had to adjust his body, learn his new old body, oldish body, and figure out

how to pitch from there. You saw the same thing happen to Cliff Lee. Older pitchers, sometimes it takes that little year to adjust to your lower velocity, and so you can come back and be who you were before. 100% agree. And what it really comes down to with those guys is, like you said, it's learning. It's all about changing speeds.

Like, 94 to 92 is a massive drop. Like, that really matters. But if you can find ways to change and adjust your other pitches so that the changing in speeds is still there, the change in velocity, you can still keep hitters off balance, you can learn to pitch at 92 if you used to be at 94 or 95 or whatever. We've seen it happen many times. All the times. Tom Glavin learned to pitch at 80, for Christ's sake. Greg Max used to be at 94 or 95 or whatever we've seen it happen many times all the times tom glavin learned to pitch at 80 for christ's sake great max came up throwing at 94 so uh and and i agree with you i think arietta is a really smart pitcher the thing i love about

arietta is he's a workout psychopath right he keeps him and gabe tight man and gabe would work out together yes gotta factor that in yeah Maybe a potential someone finally getting the Roy Halladay ring the bell, John. Oh, I don't know, man. I doubt it. But Arrieta is like that kind of guy. He's that kind of workout legend wherever he goes, that type of similar things. You like that. I always bristle at the concept of a four-year deal for a guy at the age of 32.

It's just- Correct. It's almost like my innate reaction. I can't immediately, I'm just like, no, don't do it. But I think in this specific case, and again I would much rather they get him for three and I would go three for 90. I don't care. You know what I mean? Whatever that

number is for three, I don't care. They can afford it. I think I would be willing to go for in this specific situation because I think, like you said, I think you get two and a half to three good years from him and that'll be worth the fourth year a lot of these types of contracts when you see these longer term deals or whatever you're almost hoping to win enough in the early part of the contract

so the last year or two isn't that detrimental you're almost paying for the whole contract in those first few years I think that kind of the potential you could get with Arrieta especially where this team is and the need that they have and the ability for there is one guy out there right now, other than obviously making a trade, there's one guy out there still available to be signed who can legitimately take this team from a fringe, you know, looking to get to 500 type team,

maybe play a meaningful September game to a team that is a legitimate wildcard contender. That's how good this offense is. And you put Nola and Arrieta, and if Arrieta can stay healthy, and the bullpen you have, and you get lucky with some other arms, which we'll talk about in a minute or two, they can contend. That is why this move is so exciting, is that especially moving into next year where there are less exciting pitchers on the market.

There's Kershaw who's probably not going to leave L.A. You're bringing in Arrieta now, but also for the next couple years, but still really kind of jump-starting this thing a little bit. And what a lot of people are missing with Arrieta is, sure, on the field

he's going to add a boost, but you have to go into next free agency class with something in place. And like, you need people to want to come here. Going to Manny Machado, going to Bryce Harper with Aaron Nola as your ace,

I think Aaron Nola is fantastic, but he's not a household name. Jake Arrieta is a household name that people were— He's a Cy Young. He is a Cy Young winner. Around the league, people respect Jake Arrieta. They think about two years ago when he had the 1-7-7. The best second half in the history of baseball. I've never seen him like it.

He won me a fantasy title. Shout out to Jake Arrieta. You have to make your pitch to these guys. And I think it's going to be really tough to bring in a Harper Machado if you're coming off of a 75-78 win season. And I think Arrieta is good enough to where he can add three wins to this team. I agree. Almost immediately.

And I think that brings you to like a low 80s win team. I really do. And if the offense takes a jump, anything can happen. You get lucky in a few games. You win a few one-run games you're not supposed to. All of a sudden, you're a wild card contender. And the bullpen is, on paper, a really good bullpen. Like a legit, legit major league bullpen.

A really good bullpen. And I think what we're going to realize by watching this team is there's, and we've heard him talk about it a little bit, but load management. Gabe Kapler comes from the Dodgers system, where it didn't seem like the Dodgers played so many random people all the time. It wasn't just seeming like it. That was their organizational philosophy was depth, depth, depth, depth, depth. And they're going to be so concerned about pitchers going deep into games

because they know the stats. When you face a lineup three times. It's unbelievable. The numbers are unrefutable. So David Roberts was the first one that really implemented the. David Roberts. I know. I don't know why I said that.

It's David. That's what his mom calls him. The five innings, pretty much, that's your limit. I mean, you remember the Rich Hill game. Sure. Besides Kershaw. I mean, the Dodgers had the third lowest uh innings totals out of starters last last year and that's with kershaw who routinely goes seven to nine innings so they're they're very that the five

innings is pretty much a hard cap so with this bullpen they're gonna get taxed but it's a good deep bullpen so where all you need your starters to do is go five innings and that's a way to preserve jake arietta preserves Aaron Nola. And hopefully your young guys, the Eflins, the Pavetas, can just get you those five innings. Vince Velasquez literally can't throw more than five innings, so it's perfect. I want to talk about those guys.

Real quick to your bullpen point, though, I totally agree, and I love the mix of guys. It's a nice mix of veterans who you know what they can do, the Nesheks, the Hunters, and young guys who we saw last year really start to Fernando Abad how are you burning the lead and Fernando Abad I mean come on I mean it's a it's a deep talented bullpen right now that you have to be excited about but to your point uh there let's say and whether they do or don't sign Jake Garriott this is important but And look, I think they might add a Lance Lynn, potentially an Alex Cobb, whoever it is.

I think there is another guy in here before the season starts if they don't get Arrieta or if they do, obviously. But outside of Arrieta or that other guy they potentially bring in, question marks, all right? To put it lightly. And I was a big Jared Eickhoff guy after two years ago last year rough year we talked you mentioned kind of before the concept of a hamstring injury for a pitcher i really think his back injury hampered him i think that is crucial well if you're thinking

about a back injury with pitching like it's all finishing down and when you can't finish down and through your target you're kind of coming up short, and that leads your ball to be up a little bit, which in his case, it's 92. Last year, it was 89. Yeah. Instead of where it was. You can tell. And he was very clearly hurt. Laboring.

And a back injury, when you're trying to finish a pitch, it leads you to finish up. And when it finishes up on 89, guys are going to tee off. Yeah. And on top of that, too, it's almost like a golf swing where it has to be so repeatable and you have to be so specific and so perfect with every movement that you make. And like you said, the follow-through and the finish, that if one little part of you is off, it really can throw the whole type of thing off.

So talk about those guys, Jack. I called you a pitching guru before. Don't make me look stupid here. Jackie Mechanics? Jackie Mechanics in the house. Eikhoff, Eflin, Pavetta, Velasquez. Who of these guys do you see being the guys who are going to have to fill out this rotation this season?

Well, I firmly believe that Eikhoff's going to have a nice bounce back here. I think he's going to be a Robert Covington-esque kind of player. I've used the Eikhoff slash Covington thing. As you wear the Trust the Prospect shirt on grants. Shout out John Solness. Love John Solness. No, I think Icoff's going to have a nice bounce back year. That curveball is legit.

It's a legit pitch. I think he was hampered with that back injury last year. If he could get back up to 92, I mean, he was better than Aaron Nola for a little bit. Not last year, but the year before. He was incredibly consistent. He had a walk rate of two walks per nine or something, maybe even lower. It was insane.

A back injury is just about the second worst injury you could ask for for a pitcher, outside anything related to your arm, shoulder, all that. Back injury is the worst. Now, the other guys, it took me seven seconds to talk myself back into Vince Velasquez after reading an article. Listen, he seems like he changed his mindset. He went back to California. He was hanging out with his dog.

You're forgetting the power that dogs have. I will never forget the power that dogs have. Velasquez, man, it's just, please be good. Because he could be a game changer. Of course he could. He could be, I know. Do you really believe it? I really don't believe it.

Okay, good. Because the best shape of his life story is not changing my opinion on Vince Velasquez. I know. Hopefully we can see his next start and we'll see how he does. But he just needs to learn how to control his secondary pitches. His curveball is a very good weapon. He has no idea where it's going. He needs to learn to to control his secondary pitches like his curveball is a very good weapon he has no idea where it's going no he needs to learn to change up and if he really ever wants to be a serious

starter he needs to learn a split finger fastball or something along those lines that can fall out from under you because right now he has nothing it's it's a fastball that eventually by the second or third time around the lineup people just catch up to it now he might be a closer whatever i used to deride that i used to be like no he's a good he's going to be a good starter uh that 16 inning strikeout or 16 strikeout game i was living off that uh for way too long he's a reliever but that's where i'm at now he probably he probably will be and i probably agree but there's absolutely no harm in giving him another chance oh totally true look the value even if he can be a guy who gives you five or six strong innings every time he goes

out i mean that is insanely more valuable than a reliever but well i just i i i don't see it you know what is almost as equal value to that is getting a guy like archie bradley and i think absolutely a multi-inning guy you can put it in any high leverage spots like andrew miller a few years ago absolutely that's like uh it's a game changer and I think the Phillies have two of those guys possibly potential guys like if they don't turn out to be good starters and the other one is obviously Nick Pavetta yeah now no brainer I mean that guy has stuff I think Jake Arrieta would help out Pavetta a lot because they have similar mechanics in their early careers like Pavetta right now reminds me of 2013 jake arietta where

he has it's interesting i could see that like it's stuff but unable to really harness it and put it all together even their mechanics like it's the same kind of turn and throw across your body a little bit except pivetta doesn't all the way turn across his body and but he does throw a spiked curve so i think i think arietta would help out pivetta a lot that's another thing we didn't talk about arietta is the veteran leadership for the young guys. And I think that while a lot of analytics people scoff at that, I think it's actually pretty important. I think it matters. That's the biggest area where I find myself disagreeing with the analytics crowd.

Agreed. Things where I believe that human emotion and human things can matter, like the clutch thing. I know that clutch is not a quantifiable like stat that you could put out there but i do believe that there are just certain guys who breathe slower in a big spot who are more calm who are whatever i do think that stuff matters so i'm with you there yeah so um so with pavetta he what he talked about yesterday made me pretty excited because he was talking about how he wants to pitch up on the zone, just like Verlander did. And he has that big fastball.

If you read Eno Saris on The Athletic. Ooh, Eno. Eno. Well, we'll see if we talk to him soon. Maybe we'll talk to Eno, yeah. We'll give him a little chat. A little tease there, maybe. Pavetta, when he pitched his fastball down the zone last year, the average jumped like 100-plus points.

And when he was up in the zone, I think the batting average on fastballs like in the one seven area so so and yesterday he admitted that he was trying to pitch up on the zone which i think is the correct uh philosophy like verlander talked about it pretty much changed verlander's career and a lot of that has to do with the analytics crowd and if you saw zach efflin today he was also pitching up in the zone the high fastball you were fired up on efflin when you came in today that's why i saved the best for last yeah but let's just talk about zach efflin so zach efflin his mechanic like you can't take much

from spring training but what you can take is mechanical i told i said that with john marks when we did our pre-spring training pod oh and, and let me guess. He was like, oh, yeah, yeah, okay, James. I'm with you, man. Those are the things I look for the most. Legitimate changes in either approach or in mechanics or whatever because that's the only stuff that ever really ends up proving to be a real change. Now, Greg Bird has scarred me from spring training hitting stats. That's good.

I hate Greg Bird. Just kidding. I'm going to draft him again this year. Of course you are. Post-type sleeper baby pop all i'm all in on the post i was once a post-type sleeper um uh but efflin today he he has a clear pause at the top of his mechanics which allows him to collect himself and he's not rushed to the plate like last year and last year and going back to his previous years when he was here, I always thought he never had consistent mechanics. He'd be falling off the mound.

He'd be ending up short on a couple pitches. Today, I thought he did a really nice job of finishing. I think once you get to a pause in your mechanics, it allows you to stop. Not stop, but it allows you to collect yourself for a second before really exploding to the plate. I thought that Eflin did a nice job with that i was i was really impressed with the location on a slider slash curveball um i i the my one quip with a lot of the phillies pitchers they don't have like besides

nola is that they don't have the third pitch but i think i think efflin did a nice job of showing his first his fastball location was good and his slide location was good now he just needs to work on that change up all right so putting on the spot obviously we are a full month plus away from the start of the season but which of these guys will be in the starting rotation opening week obviously let's say Aaron Nola at the top and let's say Arrieta or player x in the two. Listen, if you're asking me right now my gut, it's Arrieta. I just, for some reason, it feels like it's going to be Arrieta. If I had to bet, I'm like

51-49, but if I had to bet my life, I'd bet my life on it. I agree with you. By the way, what do you think Aaron Nola's stats were his last 16 games of the year? I'm sure they were terrific. I mean, he had that 10 start run with the six innings, two earned or less, and seven strikeouts or whatever in each one, so I'm guessing they were pretty great I mean, he had that 10-start run with the six innings, two earned or less, and seven strikeouts or whatever in each one.

So I'm guessing they were pretty great. Yeah, he had a three ERA in his last 16 starts, and that was with that Marlins game. And I don't know if you own him in fantasy, but it was a Marlins game in the fantasy playoffs, so he got absolutely torched, and I'm clearly not over it. He had a 28% K rate, which is elite. And an under, I think he had a 6.9.

I mean, that's elite. A 6.9. That's elite. Both of those numbers together are absolutely elite. He's a hidden ace. So if I'm off the top of my head and how I'm seeing it shake out now, my rotation this year is going to be Arrieta, Nola, Velasquez, Eikhoff, Eflin. If I had to bet right now, I agree with you.

I think Eflin Pavetta is going to be interesting for that five spot. I think those first four, assuming Velasquez is fully healthy and ready to go. Until he gets hurt, yeah. Yeah, he'll be in there. And I think Nola and Eikhoff are locks as well. And I'm with you. I'm in on the Jared Eikhoff bounce back season. He's not a star or anything, but I think he's going to be a nice pitcher for this team

and I think he's going to be consistent and he'll pitch some innings for you and eat some innings for this team which is going to be necessary just get to the five innings alright couple more quick things before we get out of here if I had to say one player you're watching the most over the next month

or let's say the next three weeks until it really gets real and we start to really know what the shape of this team is going to be who's the one guy you're keeping your eye on most so i'm curious to see how the outfield's gonna work uh i want to see how altair and williams look i i'm not as high on nick williams as a lot of people are uh just because the k-rate and the obp and the don Brown-ness to his swing in general. So, I mean, I'm a very pro Aaron Altair guy. No, really? I've never heard you say that before. I think he's going to be an all-star if he stays healthy.

Shout out to another John Solness. I like Altair better, too. I think he's going to be like that. If I had to choose one to start, it's him. I am less down on Williams than you, but I agree. I don't think Williams – I don't trust Williams to be an everyday starting outfielder in Major League Baseball at this point yeah I think his swing is it's it's nicer than Dom's it's not quite as loopy as Brown's it's a little sweeter than that but I totally see the comp and I get where you're coming from it's just a different type of

hitter I think you know less more of a more of a you know he's not gonna be a 35 homer guy at any point ever in his career right but he does have a the thing with him that that is frustrating is he has a hole he has he has a clear hole he has a clear hole in his swing that i think pitchers once they study him enough they're gonna find it and that's a fastball up in the zone he physically can't lay off so come big games i don't trust him in a big game because i think they have a way to get him out. But most important player, obviously, is Franco. What are you going to get from Michael Franco? Well, that's the key, and we didn't talk about it. Okay, you're a Franco stan.

I am just saying. You are. I have long said I'm out on Michael Franco. You have long fought me and said, no, I still believe. For the Franco stans, you hear that Carlos Santana's mentoring him and all that. Are you buying in? Or do you want to buy in? Are you buying in?

Well, every spring training, it's just like, hey, here's seven home runs in 14 games. So you're going to hit 30 this year. I'm not. Listen, I'm just saying that Franco Island is treading water and i'm on the palm tree just try and hold on for dear island is treading water i like this it's not going well yeah there's a single palm tree that's staying above sinkhole that's bringing the whole island yeah so listen i i want him to be good rather than i think he's going to be good there's been no signs that he's like the fact that he came into spring training this year and and I saw his bat yesterday, and of course he struck out on a curveball out of the zone because he's addicted to that.

That's what he does. For some reason. That's what he does. The fact that he came in and didn't close his stance will forever just boggle my mind. He seems like he doesn't want to adjust to modern baseball or adjust – he hasn't changed at all since he's come up and pitchers have learned how to throw to him. So it's more of my personal frustration that you should be so much better than this. He totally should.

I mean, the quick hands, the physical abilities, it's a shame, really. It's ridiculous. And he's still young. He's 25 or 26 or whatever. He's 25, I think, right? And it doesn't seem like he takes coaching well. No, at all.

It's like he doesn't even care what they're saying. I mean, Pete McKinnon literally had to say last year, he's gotta talk to me because I'm not talking to him anymore. I mean, who does that? I mean, that was bad on Pete's part, too. You figure, you hope Kapler's just gonna be like, in his face about it and a little more aggressive with him, but regardless, if, you know,

if I had to predict where I think Michael Franco will be by, let's say, I don't know, whenever Scott Kingery's Super 2 date comes up, it'll be on the bench and Cesar Hernandez or Kingery playing third base and the other at second. They've put a referendum on him. As well they should. They have Kingery moving all over the place.

They basically told him, listen, if you don't play well this year, we're going after Machado with everything we have. Which they should. I agree they completely should. How do you not get better? Yeah, man. I'm with you. it's not a me thing it's a hint yeah it's and it's a shame and and i'm clearly at the point where i don't think he ever will i get that the talent's there i get that he's still young and i think that who knows

maybe a change of scenery does i i it is so rare to see someone stay on the same team this long on like a nelson aguilar type of thing rare enough as it is in the nfl and baseball it's so rare for somebody to get this many shots in the same place and finally turn it around after this long. Agreed. All right, final thoughts, Fritzy. It's weird because we're here in Philadelphia and it is raining out. But just the scene of baseball on my screen makes me feel warm.

It feels like I can just walk to my car in my shorts and a t-shirt. It feels like baseball is back. It 70 degrees on tuesday and wednesday and like i wanted to pick up my glove and go play i'm so happy baseball's back is almost fantasy baseball season we're gonna have to do a fancy baseball pod oh and an mlb overrunners pod because absolutely an mlb overrunners pod is is it's what gets me off and it's your favorite thing in life, essentially. It is. Baseball in general. Me too. It just is.

Me too. It's my favorite. I can't wait to see the first starts from some of these guys. I want to see what Eikhoff looks like, Velasquez, Nola, all of it. I can't wait. Yeah, me too. I want to see this lineup get out there. I want to see J.P. Crawford.

I want to see Reece Hoskins. I want to see all these guys going at it. It's really exciting, man. Like you just said, it feels like baseball is back. I'm driving in. I'm listening see Reese Hoskins. I want to see all these guys going at it. It's really exciting, man. Like you just said, it feels like baseball's back. I'm driving in and I'm listening to Scott in LA and it's just like, you just get those juices flowing. You're just like, yeah, man, I'm ready.

Now, by the third week of spring training, we'll be like, all right, let's go already. But yeah, the fantasy, the whole thing of it. And again, for the first time in a while here, we have real exciting things to look forward to with this Phillies team and maybe maybe even a jake arietta signing we'll see either way we'll be back soon john marks will be doing a mailbag i believe coming up soon in uh maybe a special guest maybe a guest who maybe we've talked about we will see that'll be coming up as well either

way we'll be talking some phillies with you guys and uh you guys and continuing to enjoy the fact that baseball is back. So for Jack Fritz, for the absent John Marks, I'm James Seltzer. Thank you for listening to another edition of High Hopes. All-star closer, Kenley Jansen, we have a question. What's the best podcast of all time? Baseball isn't boring, baby. I'm Rob Bradford, and every single day I'm sitting down with the biggest names to show you this great game is the greatest game. It's my podcast.

It's my passion. It's a cause I started more than two years ago. It is now the most prolific national daily baseball pod there is. Another fact. So jump aboard the B.I.B. Express. Follow and listen to Baseball Isn't Boring presented by Wasabi Hot Cloud Storage on the free Odyssey app or wherever you get your podcasts.