High Hopes: A Phillies Podcast - Five Options For the Phillies Fifth Starter Spot | WIP Daily

Episode Date: June 13, 2023

After another disastrous bullpen game, Joe Giglio looks at five starters who could join the Phillies rotation by the trade deadline. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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WIP Daily, of course, our video podcast over the 94 WIP YouTube page. Phillies lose last night as they go down in Arizona. You know, the cycle for Real Muto is cool, and it kind of erases David Bell for me, the last guy to have the cycle for the Phillies. But the story of the game is the pitching, and the Phillies losing another bullpen game. And the numbers now are so stark on the fifth starting spot in the rotation,

whether it be a bullpen game, which has been for about a month now, or Bailey Falter before. I mean, basically the Phillies are punting a game every fifth day. They are punting 20% of their schedule and just saying, we're just going to lose these games. And I'll just say it this way. If this doesn't change fast, it will cost the Phillies a playoff spot. It will.

So it's up to Dave Dombrowski to fix this. So I'm going to pretend or kind of think like Dave Dombrowski, try to think inside Dave Dombrowski. I'm going to try to guess who Dave Dombrowski will have as this team's fifth starter on August 1st. That is the MLB trade deadline. I'm going to guess who will end up being the Phillies' fifth starter as we go down the stretch of the season. So, right now we know it has been, and we'll just go through it. April 2nd, Bailey Falter loss.

April 8th, a Bailey Falter win. April 13th, Bailey Falter loss. April 18th, Bailey Falter loss. April 25th, Bailey Falter loss. April 8th, a Bailey Falter win. April 13th, Bailey Falter loss. April 18th, Bailey Falter loss. April 25th, Bailey Falter loss. April 30th, Bailey Falter loss. May 6th, Bailey Falter loss. May 15th, Bailey Falter loss. Since then, May 23rd, bullpen game loss. May 28th, bullpen game loss. June 3rd, bullpen game win. Last night, bullpen game loss. That is 2-10 when the number 5 spot in the rotation pitches, and it is 30-24 when anybody else pitches. It is a stark difference right now between the Phillies when they have anybody else on the mound compared to when they have that grouping on the mound. It's ridiculous. Really, it's killing their season right, and the reason they're not in the playoff spot. So here's my best guess at who will end up the

fifth starter, and this is a little bit conjecture on the trade market, who's out there, who might be out there. It's also kind of looking at Dave Dombrowski's past and where he's gone to find starters and where he's gone to find pitchers as the deadlines have gone through the years, whether it be with the Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, back in the day with the Marlins, or obviously last year with the Phillies. So here's my guess, and this is in no particular order. My guess is one of these five will be the Phillies' fifth starter down the stretch of the season. So let's go with a guy I think would be a really good choice and one I would target,

and that's Lucas Giolito, starting pitcher for the Chicago White Sox. White Sox played a little bit better baseball, but really are not a good baseball team and are not going to go anywhere this year. And I think cashing in Giolito makes a lot of sense. A free agent after the year. He's already been worth 2.1, wins above replacement.

He's 5-4 to 3.5 ERA, more strikeouts than innings pitched. He's kind of a hit-or-miss guy. When he's really good, he finished top 10 in the Cy Young twice, both in 2019-2020. I don't think he's quite as good now. He doesn't have as much swing and miss now as he did then, but he still can be good.

He's certainly an upgrade for this spot. He has these starts where it's like, wow. He still has some wow starts every once in a while. As I pull up his game log, I know he had six no-hit innings in Yankee Stadium about a week ago. Let's just go to his last two starts. 13 innings pitched, 15 strikeouts, four walks, and only one run allowed. I mean, he can do that.

He had a blow-up start his second start of the year where he allowed seven runs and 12 hits against the Pirates. Since then, since his stat start, Lucas Giolito has made 12 starts and has pitched to a 2.86 earn-run average. So he's really pitched quite well for a while. I like Giolito. Again, he's not perfect. He's prone to some blow-ups here and there, but he could certainly help this team. And I wouldn't be surprised, depending on how Tyjuan Walker pitches down the stretch, if the Phillies made the playoffs, if Chialito ended up being a starter for them in the postseason. He has that kind of upside. I think he's a better pitcher than Tyjuan Walker. I like him a lot.

Lucas Chialito, first thought on my mind. Second one is Shane Bieber. And this, Shane Bieber is a tricky one because the numbers tell you he is a much, much, much worse pitcher than he was a few years ago. And I'm just going to give you where he was in his Cy Young season. He won

the Cy Young in 2020. Again, a shortened season, but he was fourth in the Cy Young before that, so it wasn't like he came out of nowhere. He was fourth in the Cy Young in a full season in 2019, came back the pandemic year, and won the Cy Young, struck out 14.2 batters per nine. The next year he came back, he was an all-star, banged up a little bit, only pitched 96 innings, 16 starts. But he had 12.5 strikeouts per nine. Next year, came back, seventh at Cy Young, along with a gold glove.

Pitched well, not special, but well. 2.88 ERA, 8.9 strikeouts per nine. So we went from 14.2, 12.5, 8.9. This year, he's at 6.6 strikeouts per nine. Now, he's still pitching effectively, 3.29 ERA. Leads the league in batter's face in innings pitched. And his last start, he did rack up more strikeouts than he had in a long time he had nine strikeouts last time it was only the second time

this year he's been above seven most of these starts it's two it's four it's two I'll tell you who Bieber reminds me of Bieber reminds me of and this this may give you like hives hearing this he reminds me of Arrieta a little bit Jake Jake Arrieta, in that there was this amazing peak, and then there was the fall. The difference is, I look at Bieber as the Arrieta the year before he got here. When he got here, he was still solid, and then he started to fall off

to average, to below average. That last Cubs year, in 2016, 2017, around there, he was the best in 2015, and then he fell off a little bit. So still good. I would take Shane Bieber. I think Shane Bieber would obviously help this team.

My only issue with Shane Bieber is I wouldn't give up too much for him. Not at this stage of his career. Now, he's here next year, so you're going to pay for an extra year. And he's a Cy Young winner. But I see some of that area in him where he had this amazing, amazing peak, and then it's at this steady decline. And he's declined. I mean, he's not the pitcher he was. He's 28. You know, this is his age 28 season.

Not the same pitcher he was. He would absolutely help. I think he's better than Walker. He'd be this team's three or four in a postseason series. And if Nola struggles, he might be higher than that on a list of the postseason series. I just wouldn't be wary of giving up a lot for him. I could see Dombrowski really still believing in Shane Bieber.

So Lucas Giolito is guest number one. Guest number two is Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians. Guest number three, and I just said this might give you hives. Actually, everyone on this list might give you some hives other than Giolito, who I think most people have generally a decent feeling about for what he is. The third one, and this goes back to history, and it goes back to relationships, and it goes back to what Dave Dabrowski remembers and knows, and that's Chris Sale. Now, Chris Sale is hurt again. What do you know? Chris Sale has made a grand total. It's the 2019 season. A grand total now of 22 starts, and he's hurt again. Though that being

said, this is a non-surgical issue. It's requiring rest. He'll come back in August. The Phillies could get Chris Sale for pennies on the dollar for a lot of reasons. Number one, it's his contract. He's signed through next season, and he makes a lot of money as a vesting option for 2025. This would be a little bit of a hedge on Aaron Nola leaving. So he makes 27.5 next year. And the season after he has a $20 million vesting ops, he's got to finish top 10 in the Cy Young. I wouldn't worry about that. If he finishes top 10 in the Cy Young next year, you're going to want him back for 20 million. So basically it would be, let's say 10 or so million for the rest of the season. And it would

be 27.5 next year. Would the Red Sox pay half that to get him off the books? I could see them doing it. I could see the Red Sox saying, let's just move on and get something for him. So the Phillies could get a bargain in terms of a trade. Now, there's a millionaires to worry about sale, who at one point looked on the path to the Hall of Fame, helped the Red

Sox and Nebraska win a World Series in 2018, was an All-Star, one, two, three, for seven years of his career, finished top six in Cy Young for seven years of his career, got four years of MVP votes. I mean, Chris Sale was incredible. And then since then, it's just been injury after injury with the contract to Obrowski.

He got him. But if you watched him pitch at all this year, he looked pretty good. He had 71 strikeouts at 59 innings, which, you know, kind of reminds you of the old days. Had a 4.73 strikeouts per walk. Had a pretty good FIP. I still think there's something there with Chris Sale. It's a matter of can he pitch?

Can he be healthy? It would be reminiscent a little bit to Syndergaard last year where it's like he's not the same guy, but I actually think he's better than Cinderguard right now from a physical standpoint. I think this would be a very Dombrowski move. And if the Phillies had to give up mostly nothing, like a B or C level prospect and only had to pay half the cost, I would do it because it gives you something possibly for next year

if he's healthy. It gives you a little bit of a hedge on Aaron Nola. If they're paying half the cost, I mean, really, what are you paying him? You're paying him, you know, $12 million on whatever the average is for next year to be a fifth starter. There's really not much of a downside if all that occurs. And again, he's got a lot of setbacks in this injury process because right now, based on the latest report I read this morning, he's due back about early August. So you'd probably be training for a guy who's on a rehab assignment or is a couple days away from a rehab assignment. So keep that name in mind, Chris Sale, Boston Red

Sox. So guessing who the fifth starter is going to be come August, Lucas Chialito, Chicago White Sox, Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians, Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox. Number four is a blast from the past, from the Gabe Kapler days, and that is Drew Smiley. Look, Phillies and Cubs did business last year. It could turn out to be a really bad deal for the Phillies as Ben Brown, the prospect the Phillies gave up to go get David Robertson last year. He has been incredible in the minor leagues. I mean, that has been incredible what he's done for them. And I look at that trade and then the relationship between the Cubs and the Phillies.

They obviously orchestrated a deal last year. They probably could do it again. Good relationships in the front office. Jed Hoyer, Dave Dabrowski. And I look at Drew Smiley, and I've always liked Smiley. I mean, he came here in, what was that, 2019 as a deadline acquisition. And he was fine for the Phillies, I thought, down the stretch of the season. He gave them, you know, let's say league average pitching down the stretch of that season.

He bounced around with the Giants in 2020, had a really nice year for the Braves in 2021, 2022 last year with the Cubs, and this year now. Injuries have kind of hampered Smiley in his career. It's why he's only made 169 starts over 10 years, you know, average of about 17 starts per year. But this year, it's been his best year since I'd say his second year in the big leagues,

but he was really a reliever then. It's probably been his best year as a starter. He's 5-4, 3.27 ERA, 3-1 strikeout to walk ratio. Not overwhelming, not dominant, but good enough. He's certainly, the way I would describe him is like what Matt Strom was

early in the season. You know, early in the year when Matt Strom was starting in place of Ranger Suarez, but like actually a starter, not a reliever being stretched out to be a starter.

I like Smiley. It would not cost much. I mean, this would probably be the smallest price in terms of prospect capital the Phillies would have to give up. And this is a C-level prospect

to give up to a Cubs team that is not going anywhere this year. So he has an $8.5 million player option for next year, $10 million player option for 2025 with a $2.5 million mutual buyout. So after this year, a total possibly of $11 million in guaranteed money. And next year, if he's healthy, he comes back as a fifth starter, as a depth piece, as a sixth guy, as a guy in the bullpen. If they have a surplus of starters next year, that's not a big deal at all. I mean, I think that is certainly a possibility for the Phillies. So Giolito, Bieber, Sale, Smiley.

And the last one is just in-house. If Andrew Painter gets going here, if he's close, if they bring Bailey Falter back or Christian Sanchez, there's a chance, and I know it's a small one, but there's a chance the Phillies' fate with the fifth starter kind of starts to evolve a little bit here and it gets a little bit better and they attack a different area of the team. There's a lot of time between now and August 1st.

Injuries could happen. They could suffer an injury somewhere else. They could also, in effect, suffer another starting pitching injury. And then the guys I'm talking about become like third starter material. So their fifth starter is actually in-house, will it be Falter or Sanchez or Plassmeyer, or maybe Andrew Painter gets himself healthy. Mick Abel takes a jump. Griff McGarry, all those things are still on the table. I just think every day that goes by that Andrew Painter's not getting

close to ready, that Griff McGarry's not fine-tuning himself with a high pitch count and getting his way to AAA and kind of taking those steps, the less likely we are to have that happen this season. And it's really disappointing because the Phillies planned and I think miscalculated

for Andrew Painter to come and help this team or have these youngsters be ready. And they thought they had all this pitching depth and they haven't, I mean, they just haven't. And it's a real shame considering what they wanted this team to be, because again, it's, it's, it's tearing them down like an anchor this pitching staff right now, when you think about what they have and their win-loss, again, they're 2-10 in games started by Bailey Falter or bullpen games, and they are 30-24 in all other games. It's remarkable. I mean, they are a surefire, no doubt, no doubt about a playoff team when anybody else, and that includes Matt Strom when he's the starter, not just like a two-inning bullpen thing,

but when he's a starter and he goes five, six innings like he did earlier in the year, winning bullpen thing. But when he's a starter and he goes 5-6 innings like he did earlier in the year, and then there are other guys, 30-24, Bailey Falter and true bullpen games, 2-10. It's just not good enough. The Phillies have to make a move. They probably should make it way before August 1st in the trade deadline.

But watch out for those names. I'm guessing along with Dave Dabrowski, I'm guessing who the 5th starter will be when we get to early August. And keep an eye on those names. Lucas Giolito, Shane Bieber, Chris Sale, Drew Smiley, Andrew Painter, and Andrew Painter and kind of the cast of characters they have on the roster,

on the big organizational depth chart. Your guess is as good as mine on those. Sale would be risky, but it feels very Dombrowski if his rehab goes well and he's close to being ready. But don't be shocked if it's a true smiley type. Thank you for listening to WIP Daily. Again, follow the podcast, River Gear Podcast. Back tomorrow, another episode.

And, of course, follow the podcast on YouTube, 94WIP. Watch us with our live video podcast with Tucker Bagley, Jumps on Me. Thanks for listening. Have a great day. Philly's got to fix this fifth starter spot.