High Hopes: A Phillies Podcast - High Hopes Chapter 2: Expectations for Craig Kimbrel

Episode Date: January 6, 2023

Don't have time to listen to the entire High Hopes pod? Check out this segment where James Seltzer and Jack Fritz react to the Phillies signing Craig Kimbrel to a one-year contract. Presented by Miller Lite. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Let's start with Craig Kimball. They signed Craig Kimball, Jack. Honestly, in the last, I don't know, I want to say like 10 years of Phillies, has there been a more predictable signing in the history of the last decade of baseball than Craig Kimball eventually ending up on Dave Dabrowski's Phillies?

We've been talking about it for years. It finally happened, Jack. He's here. Oh, lock of the century. I mean, the lock of the entire world was that Craig Kimbrell becomes available. He's a free agent. And, you know, I tweeted this, but I feel like it's better to explain on this podcast. Again, this is not confirmed. I don't know if it's true or not.

But I just envision Dave Domowski like walking to wherever the the the analytics people are like wherever annie and and and the the superstars are and he walks in and he's like please like can i just have one guys just let me let me get one of my guys just get me about throw me about yeah you Throw me a bound. And to their credit, to their credit, Ani and the group over there, the last couple years, they gave him two. So a couple years ago, it was Chase Anderson and Matt Moore.

Last year, it was Jairus Amelia Bradhand. Corey Knable, I'll give him a break on. I think Corey Knable, anyone would assign. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But, I mean, Familia and Handburg is masterclass. So, this year, Familia and Hand were just masterclass. So this year they were like, we'll give you one.

And then you know they were sitting there at their desk, and they were like, he's going to say Craig. He's going to say Craig. He's going to say Craig. He's going to say Craig. He's going to say Craig. Just get him for less than like six. Okay, Dave?

Dave, can you make it under six? Fine. I gave him 10, guys. Fine. Look at his postseason numbers. Oh, wait. He wasn't on the roster. Do you guys realize it's one of the best closers in the history of this sport?

Okay. He's the modern saves leader. Why don't you nerds? Why don't you nerds? Six away from 400. Okay. Six away. You can't get that kind of experience just lying around.

You can't get that. of experience just lying around. You can't get that. What are you going to do? Go get a guy with stuff and mold him into a closer? Oh, what a thought. What a thought. Let me get a guy that is routinely choked in big spots for a long time and that when I won a World Series wasn't even the freaking closer when he was actually at his prime.

We need to make Chris Sale close games. Nathan Evaldi. Evaldi can close it. Evaldi too. It's just like, you know, and honestly, it's been this way since. Who would think he would have learned from that? He literally lived that. James, it has been this way since the Phillies got to him in 2011

at the end of the year where all he had to do was shut them out and that team is in the postseason. But no, he couldn't shut down the Phillies and then the Cardinals got in and ruined the 2011 Phillies. Craig Kimbrell has been blowing big games forever. It's

what he does. He's never been reliable in the postseason. Sure, he'll have some good years because he's nasty and he's had great stuff's, he's never been reliable in the post season. Like, I mean, sure. He'll have some good years. Like, cause he's nasty and he's had great stuff, but like, he's never, he's never been a great postseason pitcher.

He's just been like, so he's a Philly. And that's exciting. So I, um, it's fine. Uh, you know,

my, my, my, one of my, um, core beliefs as a sports fan slash talker is that there's no such thing as a bad one-year contract. What about Familia last year? Is that a bad one-year contract? I was just kidding. Yes, it was.

It turned out it was. This is testing my limits, too. Look, I think it's fine. $10 million is a lot. Like, if you had asked me, independent of the Phillies, what do you think Craig Kimbrell was signed for? I would have said like six or seven. I would have been like, yeah, you know, like the familiar deal last year. Like, sure. You know, I think that's, that seems fair. 10 million for Craig Kimbrell. Um, I think he's fine. I look, I think he's, he's fine. It's fine to have Craig Kimbrell in your bullpen.

Don't let him close big games. I mean, that's really what I was coming down to. And if I had to bet, I'm assuming he's going to be like the de facto closer. I think they will do matchup stuff and all that. But I think he's most likely to close, right? I need him not to close big games. Like I need Topper to be down to go to Sir Anthony or whatever in those spots. It's a fine signing.

There are a lot of other guys I would have rather had. It's the first move this offseason where I'm like, okay, whatever. I'm really happy. I love Trey Turner. I love Taiwan. I'm happy with this time. Matt Stram, super psyched.

It's okay. It's not the worst move ever, but it's a one-year deal. Whatever. I don't like that his career ERA in the postseason is 4-1-3. Especially for how nasty he is. Like, you think about how talented that guy is. It's absurd that his ERA is that high. So, here's my thing. He is...

Here's what I like about it okay what i like about it is you're getting a guy that does have you know his velocity is down a little bit um the slider is not as sharp as it was but you're getting a guy who still throws 95 to 97 ish um that still has white box slider um stuff like that you're getting him off of probably his worst year. I mean, he was left off a postseason roster like the Dodgers left him off the postseason roster. So I think you're getting a

motivated Craig Kimball, which I think is important. And he was great two years ago, like two years ago. He's really good. You know, so he's only one season removed from having a really nice season. And it seems like he goes good year bad year good year bad year good year bad year so maybe he goes good year for us this year it's a one-year deal whatever it's fine um uh gal brought a whole article about

how like he doesn't think he's gonna be the closer he thinks that you know they're going to go whoever and play matchup 7-8-9 and get through a game. And while I see his point, I don't agree. I think Kimbrel's the closer. I do too. I do too. Because I think it's essentially what they wanted out of Knievel. I think he's replacing Knievel. And they want to make him the closer and I think they want

to have Sir Anthony Alvarado be able to come in before that and then you know give the ninth to Kimbrel and maybe some nights it's like okay the heart of the order is you know batting in the ninth and we'll give it to Sir Anthony or whatever

but I just I'm walking into the season expecting Craig Krimble to be the closer. I think he's going to be the closer. That's worrisome. He was good in the first half of last year. Good a couple years ago at the Cubs. It was a disaster with the White Sox when they tried to make him

Liam Hendricks set up guy. If your idea is that you want to go get a guy that is flexible, seven, eight, nine, then get a guy that's done it. You know,

like Kimbrough's never done it like, and done it well. I mean, I think five, like, I think 580 of his 700 some innings in baseball have been in the ninth inning. So if I would just would have preferred a flexible guy

and i just don't think it's that flexible um so again it's it's okay it's fine i'm not like super psyched about it i think there's a chance of the bounce back off of a down year i think he's gonna close i'm not buying the no they're gonna keep rotating him in and out like i don't think that's gonna be the case so um we'll see we'll see i hope it works out um but i'm not like super psyched about it yeah we're in the exact same place about it like literally exactly the same so the bullpen as a whole um because i think we feel really good about the lineup and obviously when harper comes back we feel unbelievable about the potential that lineup and i think the starting rotation especially with the potential of that lineup. And I think the starting rotation, especially with the potential of Andrew Painter on the horizon is exciting

though. There's still little light in terms of the depth at that spot, but I think you look at the pen and, and I think there, there are real questions, you know, Sir Anthony, I think we feel great about Alvarado.

We feel great about, but let's also remember it's, it's literally just three months of elite production from him and other, you know, he's in the minors as, as the video yearbook reminded me halfway through that season so it's not something we can call a lot you know it's a lot of question marks in the bullpen and I think more than anything not a ton of depth I think you know we've talked about Griff McGarry as a potential salve for that like the kind of thing where you know if you if you just commit to him being a reliever this year

at a certain point in the season he could be a impact guy there for you, but are you at all concerned that there's kind of a lack of depth and, and really a lack of, of high end guys, the backend that you can trust? Uh, on paper. Yes.

Um, but at the same time, you know, I think Chris is going to be there. Um, which is, I think adding a power arm in a guy who we haven't talked about enough and and someone that i think is legitimately going to make a difference in this bullpen and kind of has a feel

of uh 2018 sir anthony is drew baker you know drew baker's this kid who throws 100 um you know uh there's been a lot of buzz all offseason that he's the next big bullpen prospect to kind of get up here and make a difference. They haven't really had many of those guys. Yeah. I mean, Sir Anthony. I think we're going to have to come to terms with they're going to go the younger route.

I definitely don't think they like signing relievers again. I mean, every offseason has been a disaster. I don't think they like trading for older relievers to the deadline. I mean, Robertson, by the way, speaking of which, real quick, I would rather have Kimbrell for $10 million than Robertson for $10 million.

Oh, without a... by miles. By miles. I mean, Kimbrell's ceiling is way higher. It's not even close.