High Hopes: A Phillies Podcast - High Hopes Chapter 2: Will this be Aaron Nola's last Opening Day with the Phillies?

Episode Date: March 29, 2023

Jack Fritz and James Seltzer discuss Aaron Nola's future with the Phillies and the rest of the franchise's pitching staff ahead of Opening Day. Presented by Miller Lite. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

So I love Aaron Nola. Let me get that out of the way first. But the reports of him possibly commanding $200 million, that's fine. Good luck, buddy. Godspeed, pal. Go get that money. He might, though.

He could. No, I mean, it's not unrealistic. When you look at the free agent pitchers, other than Shohei, who's obviously just in his own class, his own thing, there's no one. I mean, there's some older guys, like scherzer is a free agent and stuff but like there is no one even in nola's hemisphere when it comes to age and accomplishment in terms of a long-term contract coming like he is going to i mean if i were him i would not sign a contract now either i think it's

like go to the market i'm not surprised by no and and i i think he might get like he might he durability good um great durability great durability great but you know good to great you worry about the wear and tear and all that for sure yeah um i'm just saying that i got no interest in that money to that point though you're right, especially with the way that, you know, I think baseball teams value Aaron Nolan more than baseball fans do. Like we love him and all that, but baseball teams look at what this guy does year after year,

after year, after year and the metrics and the advanced metrics, all of that. And I think he's viewed in baseball, like teams view him as one of the better pitchers in the sport. He's going to get paid like it. Yeah. I actually think, you know, I obviously have been very in the sport. He's going to get paid like it. Yeah. I actually think,

you know, I obviously have been very like the brass. He's been a godsend, but I think waiting this long has been a mistake. You know, you should have got it done as one of your free agents. You know what I mean? Like before Darvish signs,

you know, get an old thing done because now you're, now you're kind of screwed. I mean, I mean, you really should have been looking to it last. So I know there was a lot going on and, and all that,

but like last offseason was the time you should have gotten this contract done. Because now it's like now it's like, OK, well, he's definitely there's no there's no unless you're paying him what he wants. Like there's no reason for to sign right now. So, you know, we'll see. But if

the rumors of $200 million, like I just here's my thing. And it's not it's not anti-Aaron Nola. I understand the value of Aaron Nola. He's a good pitcher. But in a year, they're just, here's my thing. And it's not, it's not anti-Aaron Nola. I understand the value of Aaron Nola. He's a good pitcher, but in a year, they're going to have to pay Wheeler. And I'd personally rather pay Wheeler.

I know he's getting a little bit older, but I just think his stuff, I think his stuff is going to age really well. And I know, I know Nola, you would think age is better because it's 92 and not 99, but like I've seen Max Scherzer age yeah incredibly well i've seen jordan berlander uh well and also remember wheeler too like didn't have the wear and tear through his you know late

20s his early 20s that other pitchers did because he was hurt so often like he has not pitched close to the same number of consistent innings year after year that a guy like noel has right and and he's more effortless i mean wheeler is an effortless 97 99 um so i i i want to pay him and he's probably he like i would pay him 200 million dollars plus like i'd be fine with that um but at the same time you know we have we have painter we have ranger we have tylen walker under contract for the next couple, you have Griff, you have Mick, and we'll see what they turn into. But when you have that kind of stuff coming through the system, at some point, you've got to trust what you have

and not having to keep paying for the things that prior performance, in a way. This could be Aaron Nola's last opening day start. If he comes back for... I would pay him $160,000 to $180,000. I think I would do that. You would do he comes back for, I would pay him 160 to 180. I think I would do that.

You would do the Rodon contract, essentially. Yeah, I would give him the real money. Rodon got, what, 6162? I think that's a very fair contract. Yeah. But I'm not, like, the 200 million, I just, I can't. I'm not.

It's crazy. It's crazy. So, this could be his last opening day start. Hopefully, you know, he goes out, you know, and dominates and has a great last season here. It's just wild that we're kind of at the point now where we could be seeing Nola's last year. I mean, we might have already seen Reese's last games.

Yeah. That's crazy to think about. I actually think that, you know, now with the Nola 200 million possibly going to free agency contract talk breaking down, I just continue to believe that this is only increasing the, the chance that Reese comes back. Cause I think they had made a choice in their head of like,

we're going to pay Nola, not pay Reese. But now it's like, I think that was going to walk. So maybe we can bring back a Reese on some kind of deal, but we'll see. We'll see. But either way,

like I just, I saw the 200 million. I'm like, that's, I can't, I can't do it. Yeah. And again, it doesn't – if you had asked me to predict what I think he'll get,

it'd be like 182. I think that's the right number based on what the market's going to look like. Assuming he has another Aaron Nola-type season, he's going to get paid, and I'm with you, man. I can't go there. And even then, I would give him the 6-160, but I'd still be nervous about it. You know, in the way that to the point we just made, I mean, he has been incredibly

durable and put a lot of innings on those arms and you feel like, yeah, maybe he's just one of those dude who's going to pitch to 38 and never really have any issues. But at some point you have to assume that those miles, those innings are going to catch up, you know, it's, you know, how many pitches does he have in that arm? So like, I would love to have Nola back if I were, you know, it's the day before opening day right now. If I had to bet one way or the other, I would bet he's gone. And I just think that's by far the most likely outcome.

And it's a shame, but I also think it's, you know, depending on what the contract's going to be, it's a smart move by the Phillies. So we'll see how it plays out, but I definitely feel like this is likely to be his last year as a Philly. Yep, but let's

not let that get in the way. How about he goes out with a World Series title, Jack? How about that? Everyone goes out like Berlin 08, man. Everyone goes out like Berlin 08, although I think if he goes out and they win the World Series, I'm pretty sure they're just going to pay whatever. Yeah, well then it's a whole

different story. Yeah, they're just going to pay whatever it takes. So, yeah. It's it all starts tomorrow. And, you know, it's going to be so weird seeing DeGrom in a Ranger uniform. Oh my God. How about Bruce Bochy on the bench like that

whole game is gonna be weird yeah and there's like you know uh simeon second years like the rangers are are well decent simeon and seager is about as good an offensive double play combos there is in the sport without a doubt actually yeah i mean they got some dudes there and they did go out and beef up the pitching and adolis garcia and they got some like like Texas. I still think they end up like an 80 win team or something like that, but there is upside on that team. And look, at least they want to win and they're spending money, you know,

credit to that owner. You know, if we certainly see enough teams, I don't know one in our own state who just is like, yeah, we're not going to spend any money, you know? So that's what it is.

So you have, you have, I mean, I mean, Rangers, Rangers, Yankees's not like the easiest kind of not at all now you get a little bit of a break with rodone out to start the season

severino out to start the season those guys will be back in a month month and a half whatever it is so you'd rather get to you get nester i agree trust me you know as our boy in our fantasy baseball league yeah because and let me let me just address this. Can I just I'm not doing it again. Like, I just it's it's every every every week before James's draft. I get the text message. Fritz guys. Hey, hey, I got my fancy draft coming up on Sunday.

Can you send me your list of Fritz guys? The Fritz guys. This is a key thing. And the hit rate, you know, especially when we're talking about pitchers like at jack really it's only it's become a pitcher's list but when we're talking about like the under the radar pitcher guys the guys who are going in the 14th round but end up being a top 10 pitcher like jack is freaking elite at this like jack is so good at this year after year so i asked for the fritz guys list because it's a damn good list and i want to win in fantasy baseball but this year but we had draft on monday in our wip league

and like four of my guys went right ahead of me it's like are you guys are you serious like first like you could have you could have some of them right you can have whoever the fact that you had the stones to take hay Lizardo. It's like, it's, it's got, it's the most distressed. It's the, it's the meanest thing you've ever done.

It's like, it's the only one in all caps on his friends. He's got all the guys. And at the very top of the list is in all caps. Hey, dude, he pitched to a one eight in the second half last year. I got him in my other league.

I got him 10,000 half last year i got him in my other league too i got him 10 000 i think i got him i i put 10 to win a grand on him to win sayo wow like i just i think he's gonna be unbelievable i mean the whole marlin staff is just stupid i'm glad we don't face them as much as ever cabrera that dude's nasty too oh my god i love him they've yuri per uh he's coming next year like Sandy He's still Sandy And sadly Nick Maton is not here to destroy him Amazing when I'm mentioning the name Sixto Sanchez which is a shame Yeah which stinks

Hey bring him back Come on back buddy So yeah Seltzer took like 8 of my pictures It's your own fault. Sorry. But, obviously, Nester Cortez, I freaking, I love. Like, he is the Yankees version of Ranger,

where it just, like, stuff's not overwhelming, but, like, just gets out and competes. Like, there is nothing I love more than a get-out-to-compete guy. That's Nester Cortez, and that's Ranger Suarez. So, but anyway, that's next week. So we open. We go Knowles to ground. Wheeler, nasty Nate.

Another one of them. I'm excited about opening day, but Wheeler Evaldi is personally for me. That's Fritz. Yeah. Yeah. Dude, I have believed in Nathan Evaldi since he was a Marlin. Me and him go so far back. I drafted him every year when he was a Yankee. Me and him go so far back. I drafted him every year when he's a Yankee.

Red Sox kind of broke out. Shocking. The guy who annually has the highest average fastball velocity is someone who Fritz is in on. I'm shocked by this. I'm shocked. And if he didn't have a qualifying offer, I would have been begging the Phillies to sign him.

So we'll see. And then how about Fal how about falters? Our game three starter. I know. How, why do, do they want Walker against the Yankees? Like,

it doesn't make sense to me. Why would they not line it up to have Walker in that spot? Do you think it's because they wanted to get the lefty in between the righties? Like give Texas a different look. Oh, we're talking, we're talking week one.

Why? Like, why would you put falter i think they wanted to give i think with walker being in the wbc i think they wanted to give them an extra okay well that makes sense i was just looking for a logical reason you know bill falter is the four starter right now not the three we all know that so and then we got big game match strong let's let's get in and i want to get into a bunch of stuff here with the lineup and all that again opening day tomorrow um but the the strong thing so they signed strong and we're all excited because you know the dude was a bad starter but they turned him into reliever and oh my goodness

look at this the guy's an elite left-handed reliever this is great injuries now matt strom starting games for us and look i like the versatility of signing the guy, knowing that that's an option with him. And again, it was not long ago that he was a starter. Was it 2020, 2019? Like, it's not like he's been that far removed from it,

but I mean, he failed at it. He signed the guy to be a reliever and now he's starting game five for you. What are your thoughts? Yeah. But well, you're not factoring in James and this is very, very Gotham involved.

No, is that he's a Philly now. So everything works out. I don't know how you could say. That's our new mantra. Everything works out. Yes. What did this start?

I don't know how you can possibly say he hasn't been a starter for years when he made one start in 2021. Yeah. Yeah. So, yeah. He started 16 games in 2019 to a tune of a 4-7-1 ERA. Okay. Not great.

But here's the thing about Matt Strom. All he has to do is give us four innings. You know what I mean? Just get through the line twice. Yeah, just give him four innings. Not even. Once and a half and we're good. Yeah.

And his stuff plays well enough to where, you know, he doesn't have to go out there and think I got to get through six, seven innings. Like his stuff should be able to, it's basically, it's essentially just an opener, you know,

it's the whole concept of the opener, right? Don't let the guys see him more than once or at max twice through an order, you know, that's the whole idea. And the biggest thing that's changed with Matt Strom is that, um,

like they trade for Gregory Soto, who I think they believe is more of a backend lefty option where they don't need Matt, like Matt Strom. I don't totally know what his role is going to be. No, it's a really good point. Like,

I think it's going to be, I think it's going to be like a four through six guy, you know? And then like, we'll see what they have. Like maybe turns, but they paid him good money. And I just think that,

you know, they got Soto, they got Alvarado. I think those are their end-of-game lefties. So maybe he's like the – but he's too good. He should be too good to be a long man. Yeah, and also he's too – I mean, he's too good against left-handed hitters too. You feel like you get that guy to get big outs in those spots against left-handed hitters.

Yeah, so he's going to be a bit of a rotating door here. You know, I think some games you'll see him 7-8, and then he's going to have to pitch in the 4th, 5th, 6th, you know? Maybe, like, you know, against the Padres or whatever when Soto's coming up. Like, they got to get him out in the 4th or 5th, and then, you know, leave him for the bigger options later. So I'm curious.

And those guys are valuable for what it's worth. Like, if you can get someone who can be versatile like that and, you know, give you two or three here or start opening a game for you, like that is a valuable guy to have on a roster, even if it's not a sexy type of guy. Yeah. I guess my only concern with Strom and with doing this,

and it's out of the Phillies' control now. Like it's not that there's injuries. But I think we talked about this a podcast ago, but it puts way more pressure on wheeler nola rain uh taiwan walker like to to give down to take down some innings because if they don't then if you're only anticipating four innings from astrom on like a good day then it's like okay well now we're taxing our bullpen so early into a season um so they're gonna have to be like they're gonna be careful here because obviously you don't want to start you don't want to come out and bang six seven innings from wheeler nola obviously in a perfect world that's fine but like you don't want to run their arms in the ground in april like we need

those guys good to go and in in july august september so um it's gonna be it's gonna be really tricky