High Hopes: A Phillies Podcast - High Hopes Phillies Podcast: JAKE ARRIETA IS A PHILLIE

Episode Date: March 12, 2018

The sleeping giant that is the Philadelphia Phillies has finally awoken as they have inked Jake Arrieta to a 3 year $75 million contract. Jon Marks, James Seltzer and Jack Fritz react to the news and what it means going forward on this edition of the High Hopes podcast.  See omnystudio.com/policies/listener for privacy information. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Hello and welcome to High Hopes. Another edition on a Monday. Not that when you listen, you know exactly what day it is, but, specifically on a Monday, Jack Fritz sent a text message last night to James Seltzer and myself. This is John Marks. And said, hey, we got to do an emergency pod. So when the Phillies signed Jake Arrieta and Jack Fritz joins me right now. Jack, I think we kind of had the feeling that this had an opportunity of happening, being that the market really hadn't developed as far as years for

arietta and uh and i i felt good about it happening and then when john hayman who sometimes throws stuff against the wall other times he has good information he put it out there i guess early yesterday where i guess his wording was they're close to an agreement and then uh according to pretty much everybody it got done The sleeping giant is awoken. Finally, after, I mean, 2011 was the last time this team was really competitive. We had some excitement in 2012 just thinking, hey, maybe one more run with the boys. We'll bring the band back together. And then for five years there, it was just a depressing, slow drop-off

to eventually a team that lost 99 games, 100 top five picks all of that is it's over now the the the sleeping giant that everyone in baseball has been talking about is finally awoken in the in philadelphia uh arietta while he's not you know a young ascending ace like pitcher at worst he is going to be a healthy, hopeful innings eater that can save the bullpen some innings that last year needed to be saved. So, I mean, Arrieta is the biggest signing for this team. Well, Scarlett Santana was big too, but since Cliff Lee, it just feels like finally this team is back to being a competitive team

and I was thinking about on the drive down they're going to add Arrieta to this team they're going to be in the mix for the wild card hopefully they have the lowest payroll amongst the big money teams in the sport and they're adding a top three pick to this whole entire thing you already have to see

we have to have the contender conversation that's such a sports radio or a Comcast sports set topic. Well, does this signing make them contenders? Sure it does, because there's two wild cards, and I look at the lineup and say, the lineup's actually pretty good, and this rotation before Arrieta is abysmal. I'm not looking at every team in the NL,

but you have Aaron Nola and then you pretty much have everybody else. Now, your top two starters actually look good. And Arrieta, I'm already looking, I looked on Twitter, I put a tweet out last night where I think it's a very good signing. The Phillies were desperate to get a starter, and the fact that they can get a starter for just three years. Now, it can be voided after two by Arrieta, or the Phillies can elect to extend it to five years if they'd like.

And what's that, $20 million the last couple years on it? Yeah, yeah, around there. So I think it's a great trade. There's a desperation aspect to where you needed starters, and we'll talk about the rotation. James is going to come in and relieve me, and you guys are going to do some time on it as well because I've got to go get ready for the show.

But I thought it was good. I'd rather have Arrieta than six years of Hugh Darvish. Yeah, 100%. Listen, with a pitcher that has an ERA that's went up, his velocity's gone down, his wars went down, all the different stuff that's going on. He's a declining pitcher. He's 32 years old, but he's still good enough to be right there with Aaron Nola and make your team better, so I like it.

Yeah, and even though his stuff is declining a little bit, you saw some life from him at the end of last year. His final three months of last year, he had a 2-2-6 ERA, and he was big in the playoffs again if the phillies do make the playoffs and listen i don't think i'm not going to come out and say they're going to win 85 games like i'm not crazy i'll be reasonable but i think they're going to be in contention for that wild card spot i don't think that's unrealistic to say they were a game under 500 last year with in the second half of last year with Pete McCannon as the manager, who was garbage, and a garbage staff, and a young ascending lineup.

So adding Arrieta to Nola, and hopefully one of Eikhoff, Pavetta, Velasquez can take a jump here, and then you have a legit, pretty good, solid rotation. I don't know. I don't think saying they could beat 500 is too much of a hot take. But here's the thing. Just stay, and I know that Pete talked about this last year, but stay around 500. Who knows, maybe even a little bit better.

I haven't went W's and L's on the entire schedule yet. I guess maybe I can do that today on Marks and Reese. We'll give them a win, give them a loss. Yeah, we'll just do it. All right, what's the record going to be in August this year? I was trying to save it for when we go down spring training next week. Yeah. So don't steal that for the night show with Joe Giglio.

Well, we don't have a show this week, so. Oh, because of the NCAAs. NCAAs. Bang! And tonight is a Philly spring training game. It is, indeed. So, listen, they get to July, and they're around 500, and now they can look into, all right, what's available on the market?

Maybe there's a team or two that are more or less looking to dump a salary than get huge returns. So the Phillies, like you had said, still have a lot of money to burn. They can take on. We've seen this in the past when the Phillies, it's always, okay, what kind of a prospect are you getting back for who you're trading? Depends how much you're going to pay of the salary you are trading, right? Like an organization could say, well, we're willing to, we the salary you are trading right like an organization you can say well we're willing to uh we know he's overpaid we're willing to take half you know half of the salary we'll pay for half the salary you only give half of this the money then you're not going to get as much of a prospect back to where if you're saying like hey we'll take on the full salary right so who

knows what the foe is going to be able to do i like the fact that that they stayed in this that they've uh that they hey 25 million dollars a year is a significant amount of money. Three years, not significant. Yeah, it's just like the money doesn't matter for me right now. I mean, their payroll is still like, basically short of signing a guy to like $80 million a year, they were going to be fine under the luxury tax and all that stuff. So just, I don't care about it.

And the three years keeps your window open if you do sign harper or machado to 500 plus million or whatever you can get out of the arietta deal and re-sign with people around him if he does age you know horribly if he falls off a cliff immediately next year you can get out of it after two years three years it doesn't kill you and even three years from now if you're if you have a big contract of, what, $40 million a year for Harper and your second contract is like $25 million for Arrieta, it just doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter.

No, you're right. It doesn't matter. And it makes you that much better, and it does. I'm not going to sit here and tell you that Phillies are contenders to win the World Series, but I will say that, hey, man, they're improved. And as a guy who spent the majority of my summer and spring last year down at the park broadcasting before and after the games and watching the games night in and night out, it was rough for the first couple months.

And then they turned it around post-All-Star break, and a lot of that was the young players coming up. But a lot to look forward to. I'm looking at my Twitter here. It's John Marks Media. And I just put a little thing out there saying that this is what I said. I said, Phillies desperately needed a starter and got a good one. I'd rather have three years of Arieta at

$75 million than six years of Darvish at $126 million, not even close. So then, now you start getting the cynical baseball Phillies fan that doesn't really understand what's going on. Right. Showed a rapid decrease in ERA as the season went on. Incorrect. Wasn't he a post-All-Star break of two ERA?

2-2-6. Yeah, so a rapid increase. He allowed like two earned runs in August last year. I mean, his fastball is definitely declining, but here's the thing, is it takes a little while for a pitcher to adjust to 92 when they're used to throwing 95 for most of their career. And we've seen guys who age well with a lower velocity.

I mean, Verlander dipped for a little bit there. Of course, he jumped back up to 99 last year. But there was a period there where he was really, really bad in 2014. Like, bad. And then now he's back to being one of the best pitchers in baseball. CeCe Sabathia, he's aged pretty fine. I mean, he had some dips. It comes with being an older pitcher you have

to learn to pitch at 92 and he's such a smart hard worker that I think I just trust him to figure it out it's the difference between and he was never a thrower but a guy that throws 98 99 doesn't necessarily have to learn how to pitch because if he's getting swings and misses on 99 mile an hour fastballs you don't have to pitch Jamie Jamie Moyer had to learn how to pitch. Jamie Moyer had to work backwards. He had to worry about hitting corners. And you've seen it. Cole Hamels has never had great velocity.

I mean, early he was 94, 95, but he's so good with the changeup, and he learned he had to have a third pitch at least to mix in. He just has guys guessing on him sometimes. So, yeah, you're right. He's going to have to, if he's going to average 92, probably going to go down to 91, 90 before the end of his contract. That's good enough. The problem with Eikhoff last year when he was down 88, 87,

when he lived at 90, he could get guys out because the secondary pitches were pretty good. He has a good curveball. 87, 88, you're in trouble. So as long as he doesn't dip too far. Listen, we're talking about a former Cy Young, a guy that has postseason experience and a guy that really, Jack, you said it earlier, if nothing else, I don't care what the money is.

It doesn't matter. He would have been worth $30, $40 million to the staff because if they didn't have him, who would they have had? Are you going to overpay Lance Lynn or somebody like that? I mean, if you could honestly worst case scenario, in my opinion, is that he throws

180 innings and has like a force on the ERA. I think that's the absolute worst case. I need him to get over 180 innings just because on paper, I think the bullpen is pretty good. So if you can get the ball to the bullpen, let them do their thing. I'm just worried about a guy that can do that on a consistent basis. And at worst, I think Arrieta can do that. Nola and Arrieta should be good enough to where they can give you six innings, turn the ball over to your bullpen and you have a chance. Whereas if you didn't have Arrieta, you're hoping to get five from Vince Velasquez. You know, he can't possibly throw more than five innings. It's pretty crazy. Him and Pavetta both have the same struggle in that area. And if Eikhoff can bounce back, I mean, you're right about Eikhoff. But what he's doing this spring training, I think, is super interesting.

And a little side topic is that he's throwing still 88, or he's throwing like 89-ish. But he's throwing it up in the zone more with his four-seam fastball because it's rising a little bit. Rather than last year, he was trying to live at the bottom of the zone and with a rising fastball just getting crushed so hopefully he can adjust to 89 whatever that's fine but i just trust the phillies rotation so much more now it's with jake arietta uh and the money doesn't matter and even though you know he has the downturn in his career he was still phenomenal in the postseason last year just get me get me to a a big game in august or september and i trust jake area just as much as i trust most guys in baseball man i agree i agree just looking at with some of the the other negative tweets uh what's the point of being negative about this well i they could have given them if they would

have done 33 years for 90 million, I probably... That's what I thought I would have been like, yeah, at least it's only three years. In fact, they didn't play that.

Terrible deal. Arietta's cooked. Okay, sure. Let me see. Let me see. Let me see. Where's the one I was looking for?

Oh, well, because I said that Darvish, I'd rather have three years of Arietta than six years of Darvish. And he says, well, Darvish is the decidedly better pitcher. Is he, though? But I digress. I mean, he may be a little bit better.

Maybe. Did he look that way last year? In the World Series? Darvish? Well, his ERA was over four, just slightly over four, I believe, when he was in the American League. He was a little bit better with the Dodgers, but he wasn't all that impressive when he came to Los Angeles, especially not in the playoffs.

Giving six years to you, Darvish, I think is terrifying. It seems like a rushed move. I don't know. He's just a guy I don't trust in big games whatsoever. And if you're trying to win another World Series for the Cubs, why would you bring in a guy who's...

Here's what you're hoping for. It's an old Yankee move, like you had mentioned with CeCe. You're hoping for. It's an old Yankee move, like you had mentioned with CeCe. You're hoping for the first three years are the old Darvish, and then one of the last three years, he can come out and grind out a good season. That's the way I would look at it. For years, the Yankees said

we'll take the first three years of CeCe Sabathia or Mark Teixeira being good and eat the rest of the contract. Baseball GMs don't want to do that anymore. The Cubs, I guess, at this point feel like, hey, we've got to continue. We've got to go for it again. I'm not a big Hugh Darvish fan.

Good pitcher, but I'm not giving him six years. I'll take three years of Arietta. I don't see him being an ace. And here's another thing about Arietta that I think has been under-talked about is that he doesn't have much innings on that arm. So usually when you sign a 31-, 32-year-old pitcher, it's like, man, he's pitched forever. He's been in the league since he's 23. He's worn down. Arrieta was pretty bad his first couple years.

And then once he came to the Cubs, he turned into a 200-plus inning guy. But before that, he didn't throw more than 200 innings in a season. So you're getting a semi-ish, fresh 32-year-old arm, which I think is important. Whereas Darvish, I think he's more close to the end of his career than Arrieta is. I agree. I agree.

So we'll see how good he is, but it's certainly – and James is going to come in here in a couple minutes. Yes. What is your rotation right now? I'm going Nola opening day. Actually, I don't even know if Arias is going to be ready for opening day. Yeah, so that's... He's not going to be, right? Well, he's never going to start opening day. I'm talking opening week.

No, I know. It's the 12th. So 15 days is the opener. Yeah, I don't know how much he's been doing. I know they had a free agent camp that maybe... I'm sure he's been throwing. Of course. He'd be an idiot if he wasn't throwing. Yeah, I don't know how much he's been doing. I know they had a free agent camp that maybe. I'm sure he's been throwing. Of course. He'd be an idiot if he wasn't throwing. Hey, listen, he's 32.

He knows what they're doing. He's not pitching. It may lead to him getting rocked a little bit at the beginning of the season if he can't find his pitches. Here's the thing, people. If he comes out slow, don't freak out. He started slow last year. He's a guy that has pitched deep into the postseason for the last three years.

I mean, 2015 when he had the.77 ERA in the second half, he pitched in the NLCS, and then the year after they pitched in the World Series, and then the NLCS again last year. There's something about a playoff tax that it takes a little while for these older guys to come back from, and we'll probably see that at the beginning of this year. If he doesn't come out and dominate, don't be surprised. Just hope that in the second half of the year he goes back to being

last year's Arrieta. Second best ERA in baseball from 2014 to 2015, 2.08. That's not who we're getting right now. Last two seasons, 3.30. I'll take 3.30 any day of the week. They need it. You know why? Look at who else is in this rotation.

You're going to have Noah, Arrieta. Eikhoff is maybe your fourth. Velazquez is probably your third. Now it just comes down to is it Ben Lively, is it Pavetta? I don't think Leiter is... He's a long man. He's a long man that can do

multiple innings and I actually like him in that kind of role. But I don't think Leiter is – He's a long man. He's a long man that can do multiple innings, and I actually like him in that kind of role. But I don't know if I – Pavetta, to me, looks like a bullpen guy. Looked like a bullpen guy last year. He's not a thinking man's pitcher. He's got good stuff. The velocity is going to take a little bit uptick of an uptick if you put him in the bullpen.

Put him in seventh and eighth inning. See how it goes. He's going to try to win a job, but I don't see him as being a starter. They locked him in as the fifth starter. I think they not locked him in, but they pretty much gave him the fifth starter job before the area of signing, so I wouldn't be

surprised if he starts there. And yesterday in his start, I thought he looked pretty good. Instead of trying to throw 100 every time, he was throwing 92, and he was just getting outs with his fastball and his curveball, still a legit weapon. I'm cool with just having Pavetta. He's got really good stuff.

Amazing stuff. So I'm cool with just making sure he's not a starter before transitioning him to the ball. Giving him another year. Him and Velasquez. This is their last shot for me. But see, Velasquez, at least I know it's so mental with him, but I know that mental and injury stuff.

But I know that he's got three major league pitches. For sure. Maybe. For sure. I think he's got two. Well, he's got two plus. His changeup should be better. Well, again, you're talking about a relatively young pitcher.

But Cole Hamels, did he have three legit pitches? He still does. I don't think he still does. No, he's got that slur that he tries to just show up there. He told me when I was like 14 that I had a better curveball than him. Yeah. Well, he will see what he does this year, but I'm excited. Yeah.

We'll see how this shakes out in the next two weeks if he's even going to be ready to start the season. I would this isn't even a one-year contract. For big money, it's three at least. So I would err on the side of caution. And boy, that Chris Archer trade right in July is going to be a lot of fun, adding him to this rotation.

And then a nice little stretch on. Come on, Johnny. I know you see it. And then you trade for Mike Trout. Then all the Phillies go, trade your entire organization for Trout. Who knows what happens? I'm not talking about Trout, but who knows what else they can do to fill in some holes that they have.

I'm just glad that Juice is going to be back at CBP. It's been too long, but it really does feel like baseball is back in Philadelphia. All right, James Seltzer is coming in here now, as I have to get ready for my show, Marks and Reese coming up here. But make sure that you rate us. Make sure when you're on iTunes that you give us a great rating so people can find us because there is thirst for Phillies talk out there, which we can't generally do all the time in the land of eagles,

but we can do it here on High Hopes Podcast. All right, James is coming in. Everybody, talk to you. I'm here. James is here. I'm here. Did you hear that? John said I'd be here, and all of a sudden, magically, I sudden magically i'm here jack this is an amazing thing are you excited for some reason

jack i have had a giant smile on my face sure a smile is a good way to put it all day yesterday all day today it's one of those things where it's very rare and it's even more rare in march when spring training is happening but it's very rare that you can make a signing that that one signing automatically takes you and makes you a contender. And the Phillies signing Jake Arrieta, filling that need with that guy, automatically makes them a wildcard playoff contender, Jack. I'm floored, man. For three years at 75,

I thought it was going to be three at 90 and I would have been happy. I can't believe how this market played out, how Klentac, just the toughness and fortitude to just hold out. I mean, we heard from the start of free agency all the way through how, you know, they know we're out of Baltimore

and they're lower and more, more, more, more, more, more, all that stuff. And they were able to hold out and say, no, yeah, we're giving you this or no. And eventually Arietta gets to the point where he's like, all right, this is my best option. This is the best spot. This is the best deal. Props to Matt Klintak, man, because that was impressive to wait it out. Three years, 75, front loaded with the 30 in the first year, 25 in the second.

And an opt-out after two. Masterful. Like a masterful move for year, 25 in the second. And an opt-out after two. Masterful. Like a masterful move for this team and in the moment. Yeah, and we've talked about this enough where it's important twofold. One, it's important on the field this year because their starting staff is dog crap. Well, yeah. We've talked about it. We had Nola and nothing else.

Just even with two guys at the top, we've talked. You and I are both big fans of what they've done in the bullpen i think the bullpen is going to be really good get them five innings like really good and obviously we all talked about how excited we are about the offense jack to to add to nola you had one guy you could count on to add another guy like that and and to take some of that pressure off nola nola doesn't feel like he's the only guy who can stop a losing streak who has to go out and be the guy all the time. Man, like you said, it's huge from that perspective. Yeah, because, you know, we look at the rotation right now. It's going to be Eikhoff, Velasquez, Pavetta, probably.

That'll be your back half of your rotation. Yeah, Eikhoff and Velasquez, locks, I would say, and then likely Pavetta for the fifth. And both Pavetta and Velasquez have both shown that they struggle getting past the fifth inning. So if you can just... Yeah, exactly. And Velasquez just struggling shown that they struggle getting past the fifth inning. So if you can just – Yeah, exactly. And Velasquez is just struggling to stay as a starting pitcher.

Yeah, well, at least right now on paper, two out of the five days, you should have starters that can get you to the bullpen, which on paper looks fantastic. And then it turns it over to them. They should win more ballgames that way. But the other part why this is so important is because of free agency next year this isn't this is what we talked about all the time you have to be competitive you have to show competitiveness if you're going to lure a guy to a guy like machado or harper here and bring in

arietta he's still respected around the league everyone talks about the dip in velocity like adding him for the season i thought was important and it's gonna make it more fun but the reason i got more excited is because of what he's going to bring heading to the negotiating table next year. He legitimizes the franchise in a way. Like Tony. He really does. He signals that this is not just a group

of young, talented guys on the upswing, but a group of young, talented guys on the upswing who can compete now and are going to compete into the future. I totally agree with you. I think from that perspective, if you're a Harper, a Machado, who and are going to compete into the future i totally agree with you i think from that perspective if you're a harper a machado who already going to be interested in coming to philly because they're going to have the money to pay those guys which is going to be the first you know hurdle that's clear 500 million yeah but then you get to come join this lineup the youth here

what's growing and of course you know this this sports city but then you can look and say i got aaron nolan and jay garriott at the top of my rotation Those are real guys that I can count on to go out and get me wins and get me, you know, eat innings for me and all that type of stuff. I think it's crucial. Again, it legitimizes them. It puts them on the map in a way they weren't viewed the same way as they are now. And I'll add a third thing, and I know that this can be, especially now that the Phillies are like the most analytically inclined organization in sports.

It feels even weird to say that. But, you know, to kind of just slightly go against the analytics community in a very minor way, I do think that there is something to bringing a guy in like Arrieta and adding him to this young staff. Adding him to the concept of being the to to kind of bring these guys along show them how it's done and on top of that i mean you know workout monster i mean this is a guy who we have a guy that can compete with holidays bell you can't legitimate he's that guy and to have that type of guy that type of workhorse both on the mound and off the mound at the top of the rotation i mean you can't ask for a better example to be set for a bunch of young kids who you

want to kind of grow into those types of roles. Yeah, people aren't talking enough about how much of a leader he was for that Cubs team. For sure. He was insane. And adding to a guy like, when I watch Nick Pavetta, right, I see a guy that was basically the 2012 version of Arrieta. Throws across his body, electric fastball, electric slider. And adding a guy like Arrieta to Nick Pavetta is just only going to make, it should make him even better.

Totally. And the interesting thing about Arrieta is that it's not like he came in right away and was dominating. The opposite. Right. He came in and was probably one of the worst pitchers in baseball. He was a big disappointment. He was a legit prospect and was not panning out.

So you can show these guys how you can go through struggles and then come in on the other end. And just having that in the ballpark is going to help these guys tenfold. It's going to help Nola get even better. And then you have Arrieta right behind him. The rotation, it just takes a huge step forward. He's a difference maker in the locker room. He's working out with Nick Williams all offseason. Yeah, I saw that.

Well, I think you make a great point, though. And it's throughout the whole rotation. I think Arrietarietta's presence arietta is the way he goes about his business the resume that he has you know he's a young winner he is a world series winner you know all that type of stuff to these young guys that's a legitimate guy to look up to and then when you add in like you said jack i think that's a great point is his path to how to get there i mean like we said you know he's only been a star for a few years, three years essentially. Before that, he was a failed prospect and turned it around later in his career

than a lot of guys do and not just turn it around, turn it around to be a Cy Young pitcher. And you've got a hot take about that season coming up in just a minute that I'm queuing you up for, unless you already said it with Mark. I didn't say it no but i uh you know to be able to to turn to that and uh to be able to become what he has become i agree with you i think that's a real um motivational type of thing for these guys to see and to hear how he did it it can only help i agree well should i just have the hot obviously i queued you up for it give it to me me. 2015 Jake Arrieta was the most dominating pitcher since late 90s Pedro.

And I don't even think it's a hot take because the guy was hitting 96 up in the zone with severe, insane movement. And then his slider slash curveball thing is just absurd. I mean, the guy was unhittable. He had a.77 ERA. Jake Arrieta was unbelievable. He had the second lowest ERA in baseball from the 2014-2015 season and now he's just

a good pitcher now. A really good pitcher. It was the best second half in the history of the sport. The entire time this game has been played, he had the best second half that any pitcher's ever had. He had a 1-7-7 ERA on the season. I mean, that is it doesn't happen anymore, you know? And then to do it like you said jack it

wasn't just the numbers it was the watching him night in night out the utter dominance like you said i i will always say and i still say it late 90s pedro the most dominating pitcher i've ever seen in my lifetime i've never seen a guy break team's will the way i'm serious like you were watching your team play against pedro and if he was on you're like all right we're not winning like that's it just let's go home let's pack it up that's how he made you feel and Arrieta that season made opponents feel that way he really did and he won me a fantasy baseball title that year shout out to Jake um just one of the all-time great seasons for a pitcher and and really you know from from let's say the middle of May on, as good a five-and-a-half-month stretch as any pitcher has ever had

in the history of baseball. I think what we're going to learn with Arrieta is that he's a bit of a slow-ish starter, and then second half into postseason, he's a different pitcher. Every year. Every year since he's been good. Second half of last year. So two, three ERA or something like that. Two, two, six E, his final three months. So 2-3 ERA or something like that. 2-2-6 ERA, final three months.

And really, it's gearing up for these postseason runs. And even though he had the down year last year by some standards, Yeah, quote unquote. I still trust him in a big game more than a lot of pitchers in this sport. You've shown it. And he's that type of guy, Jack. You just hit on that. And there's another thing that's kind of ineffable.

It's not a statistic or a number or whatever. I believe this one. I do too. I think there are just certain guys who, and I've said this many times, but maybe a guy just, his heart beats a little slower in a big moment. Maybe a guy just breathes a little slower, isn't as hyper, isn't as angsty, and whatever it is, there are clearly guys who, when the biggest moments happen,

the pressure is its greatest, there are certain guys who just have the biggest moments happen the pressure is its greatest there are certain guys who just have the ability to rise in those moments and jake arieta everything we've seen he's one of those guys yeah and here's i think he's gonna start really slow for the phillies and i envision like you know maybe april oh that'll be fun oh my god this guy's 75 million dollars takes are gonna be great they're gonna happen they're gonna happen because it's gonna be so much fun you guys but but just just i'm begging people to be power through please just just be patient with the guy he's had a track record of turning it around the second half because his mechanics are so finely tuned so like like like

it's unbelievable the way replicates it, it's so perfect. So this is weird, but I'm going to bring up Chris Traeger again. You know how when he was talking about the flu episode? Fritz. Right. The flu episode. Of course. When he's talking about his body breaking down. His body's a microchip. That's how I feel about Jake Arrieta. One little thing can send his body

and that's how I feel about his mechanics and that's how I feel about Jake Arrieta as an athlete. That's the way he feels. It seems he feels about himself with the workout regimen, the way he eats, all that type of stuff. He's one of those guys who is very into his body is his temple type of guy. Kind of the opposite of us, Jake. Well, that's why we're here. But yeah, it's going to take a little bit for him to get going next year. He's already missed part of spring training.

Which is really important. Yeah. I don't think people ever give that enough credence. Every single year you see guys who've got injuries. Especially, mostly for pitchers. But you really need that time to build your arm up. You do. It's just a fact.

We see it every year. Guys who are late to spring training get late starts. It takes them time to get going. Especially when he's been in these deep playoff runs for the last three years. It's another a fact. We see it every year. Guys who are late to spring training get late starts. It takes them time to get going. Especially when he's been in these deep playoff runs for the last three years. It's another great point. I mean, you think about, and then thinking about it from where he came to where he went, like thinking about being the failed prospect to becoming this guy for the Cubs and then making runs and all that, like the amount of innings he's pitched over the last three

plus years compared to what he pitched the prior five years is a big jump, and that's certainly something to keep an eye on. But we're getting a semi-fresh arm. Well, that's the other thing, too, in that way, is that he did blossom later, for sure. So, you know, in a sense, it's not like your average 29-year... or, you know, your average 25-year-old breaks out.

He was 29, you know? So that is a good point as well. So what are you expecting out of jake this year what do you what do you want to see uh well i want to see kind of the stuff we just talked about like i know it's a little more not necessarily quantifiable but i want to see the effect that he has on the rotation the team i think you're going to see his impact i really believe that from a on the field perspective you know i'm not delusional. I'm not expecting him to be 2015 Jake Arrieta. 171.

Yeah, I think we'll see glimpses. I think we'll have games where you're like, wow, like, wow, you know, that was amazing. But I think he's probably, you know, I don't think he's his first half or his second half last year. I think he's probably, you're looking, you're hoping for a round three ERA,

something in that range, hopefully in that one whip neighborhood, and a three or four to one strikeout to walk rate. That's what you're looking for. That's what he can give you, and I think that it's feasible. I need, give me a three-three between three-six ERA. The one thing I definitely need out of him is I need 180 to 200 innings. Oh, you 200 innings. Oh, you need innings.

It's crucial. You need guys that can pitch deeper into games and save the bullpen for Pavetta starts or Velasquez starts or Eikhoff starts because Nola and Arrieta and me are guys that can go seven innings and then turn it over to the bullpen, whatever. But last year they got taxed. I mean, there would be a fourth inning. Go get Mark Leiter Jr. Absolutely.

That's what happens. It's crucial. I couldn't agree with you more. Go get Mark Leiter Jr. Absolutely. That's what happens. It's crucial. I couldn't agree with you more. You need innings out of this guy. I'll take the $75 million for 180, 200 innings. That's all I really care about. And thank God it's not the Aaron Harangs anymore. Yeah, well, we talked about that.

How many times did I say in our podcast this offseason, we're like, you know, it might be like a Wade Miley guy or someone just to eat some innings. Andrew Kaschner. Come on down. They need guys. They just got the best one. For the guy to be Jake Arrieta.

What the hell is that, man? It's awesome. The sleeping giant is awoken. For years we talked about how everyone around baseball is like, well, they're a sleeping giant. Those Phillies get the money. And now they're using the money on Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta. They have the young talent up.

They have their young core in Crawford, Nola, Hoskins. You know, Kingery's on his way. And they're adding. The thing that makes me sad is I was giddily walking down the street this morning as I was walking in the studio because I just remembered, we have another top three pick in the draft to go along with a team that's on the rise already the funny part is that that there are a few people on the planet who get more excited about the mlb draft than jack red i'm with you i i think what i said at the top is the thing for me that really hits me is that the concept of you know i woke up yesterday morning excited about baseball excited

about the phillies just because i love baseball because I'm excited to see this team grow. And I went to bed last night legitimately believing that the Philadelphia Phillies can make the playoffs this season. That is such a massive jump. Such a massive leap in excitement. And then, like you were just talking about, the sleeping giant, that whole thing. It's a little bit faster than expected. You know, we've all said 2019, that's the year they go for it. And they're not, quote unquote, like going for it going for it this year but they're saying you know what

this is an opportunity we got some money it legitimizes us let's let's a little bit go for it let's go for it a little more than people might thought we would i think i'm just so happy because i feel like they're smart they're finally smart again because getting yeah like i know i know not only analytically wise but they're smart in realizing that you can't go in the next offseason with a 73 win team and expect to lower harper machado i totally agree with this this move was as much as it was about helping the team this year it's more about walking into those meetings next year with more caritas well that's why that's why i keep saying it it's it's as much a move for the on-the-field benefits

as it is for the off-the-field, as it is for what this means for the Philadelphia Phillies as a franchise. Well, before we get out of here, we've got to go into the trust tree because finally I'm going to be able to wake up normally because I swear to God, James, for the last month, I have woken up and checked my phone to see if Jake Arrieta is a affiliate. I know you have. I believe it. Every single day I would wake up.

And I would guess there were a few nights in there where you had dreams about it too. Yeah. I had dreams about that. I had dreams about Lance Lynn because he's just a beautiful, playoff beardy kind of guy. Oh, yeah. And I envisioned that. He's got the nice woodsman thing going on. Of course.

So now I can rest easy. I don't have to wake up, roll out of bed, and get text. I would have dreams about waking up to Jake Arrieta texts. Those days are done. It's a beautiful thing. You actually got real Jake Arrieta. I know. And it never works out for me. I feel vindicated. Alright, James Seltzer, Jack Fritz, John Marks hopping on

earlier. A fun time for Phillies baseball. A lot more content coming. Because you know what? This is awesome. And Jack and I talk about baseball like seven hours a day anyway through text and everything. So like this actually, we could do it into microphones, which is pretty cool. All right. We'll talk to you soon.

All-star closer, Kenley Jansen. We have a question. What's the best podcast of all time? Baseball isn't boring, baby. I'm Rob Bradford. And every single day I'm sitting down with the biggest names to show you this great game is the greatest game. It's my podcast. It's my passion. It's a cause I started more than two years

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