High Hopes: A Phillies Podcast - High Hopes Podcast with The Athletic's Eno Sarris

Episode Date: February 27, 2018

Jack Fritz and James Seltzer are joined by The Athletic's Eno Sarris to talk about the Phillies, Nick Pivetta, players to own in fantasy and, of course, his favorite beer's right now. Eno also gives his thoughts on the Phillies core and just how good they can be.  See omnystudio.com/policies/listener for privacy information. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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So go ahead. You can afford to hoard because IKEA is priced for student life. Shop everything you need for back to school at IKEA today. Welcome into the High Hopes podcast. I'm your host, Jack Fritz, waiting for James Seltzer to get out of his important meeting here at the WIP studios. But on the line, we are so very happy to be joined by The Athletics' Eno Saris, who is just one of the best baseball people in the business. Eno, how are you today? And thanks again for coming on. business. Eno, how are you today? And thanks again for coming on. I'm doing great. It's fun to have baseball on TV. I mean, I'm going down to Arizona on Friday, and I feel like this is actually getting started. After that off season we had,

it was a little, you know, it feels a little weird. It is definitely a little weird having baseball in February, but, you know, it's great to be back. And even though it's been pretty mild here in the northeast part of the country, just seeing baseball back on the screen really warms your heart up. So I assume you feel the same way. So you wrote a great article the other day on The Athletic about Nick Pavetta. And Nick Pavetta here is a guy that people don't really know what to make of Nick Pavetta they think he's a uh a possible Archie Bradley type guy first out of the bullpen they can go multiple innings but you kind of laid out that there is a there is a chance for him to be a pretty decent

starting pitcher in this league just kind of maybe recap that article and let us know what you're thinking about Nick Pavetta you know he had a little bit of prospect pedigree coming up, and I think a lot of times the pitcher that struggles in his initial attempt at the league is maybe the player that we turn on the most. You know, I think we will give a hitter a chance or two, but a pitcher will just say, oh, you know, he was beating up on minor leaguers or whatever. And I think in the way that Nick Pavetta came up and just blew up,

I think made it easy to say, oh, well, he's got no command and stuff's not good enough to overcome that. And I think a lot of people were out on him. But I just wanted to kind of refocus and be like, how good is this stuff? And did we see any adjustments late last year? Because the last two starts were pretty good. Do we see anything that we can believe in? And for me, I see something.

I mean, he improved that curveball. The four-seamer already has plus ride and velocity. So if he adds that curveball to what I think is a plus slider, then I think the fact that the changeup is no good and may never be good is not as big of a problem. And what do you think about pitching up in the zone in general with baseball today? For a long time, I pitched growing time, and I pitched growing up, and I pitched in college, and a lot of the,

all they teach us would be try to hit the knees, live at the knees, don't pitch up in the zone because that's where you get hurt. But it feels like that is changing in baseball. Verlander pretty much changed his whole career by learning how to pitch up in the zone. And if you've looked at the Phillies so far this spring training, Ike Kossman trying to pitch up

in the zone, it really seems like an organizational switch. And it really is a baseball switch in general. Pitching up on the zone is now in. There are a few ways to get the good launch angle that leads to the good outcomes. And one of them is to tailor your swing to the kind of low and away pitch. So there are a group of hitters that are tailoring their pitch to that kind of a Leo Mazzoni low and away special.

And that means that, in a way, you're creating angles that are launching the ball and you're doing it from down low. Some might call it golfing or whatever, but, you know, that's what you're trying to do. You're trying to lift the low ball. And those types of swings are susceptible to the high pitch because, as Brandon Moss told me, who has one of these swings, he just couldn't get his barrel straight, and he couldn't get his barrel straight when it was up that high, and he couldn't make good contact high in the zone.

Darryl straight when it was up that high and he couldn't make good contact high in the zone. There are other pitchers, there are other hitters like Carlos Correa and even Josh Donaldson, who people think are part of the launch angle revolution that are actually highball hitters. So, you know, that's a way to get launch angle and exit velocity on a pitch, too, is to just, you know, take, it's kind the old-school approach. Adrian Belcher does this. Just hit the high ball hard, and it'll go out. So I don't know if pitching up in the zone is the way forward for everyone, but if you've got a high ride, a riding fastball, the way Pavetta does,

the kind of fastball that jumps up on you, Mark Ristrata, Chris Young, fastball, the way Teveta does, the kind of fastball that jumps up on you. Mark Ristrata, Chris Young, Jarrell Cotton, Kershaw, you know, there's a bunch of fastballs that kind of jump up on you at the end. If you've got one of those, I've learned that throwing

that in the bottom third of the zone last year, riding four-seamers, bottom zone, zero width. That's insane. Isn't that insane? I had to check that a couple of times but uh if you have plus ride don't throw it on the zone i think most pitchers have learned that lesson but i think pivetta was taught you know the old school style and uh he he kind of tends towards belt and knee um and i think it's going to be difficult. I'm not sure he can do it.

And this is kind of how the career turns for him, is can he hit the top of the zone in the strike zone, just out of the strike zone? Can he kind of realign where he's aiming the ball? And if he can, then I think it all falls into place. And another guy, a lot like Pavetta, is Vince Velasquez. Do you think he should kind of go guy, a lot like Pavetta, is Vince Velasquez. Do you think he should kind of go down the same path that Pavetta is?

Have you seen anything from Velasquez that there's any chance that he could turn into a top-flight starter here? Well, I've long liked his stuff. I think he's got the added complication of health, of course. And he, in fact, doesn't have as plus ride as Pavetta, but I do think with that kind of velocity and with some ride on that fastball

and, you know, I think probably better secondary stuff than Pavetta, if Vince ever figures it out, he could be an ace still. It seems impossible to say that, but it's still true. Yeah, because Velasquez is the same kind of guy. He has that riding fastball that Pavetta also has

and he should probably learn how to throw that up in the zone. But even if not, even if he never really turns into a top flight starter, I could see Velasquez developing into a really good back end of the bullpen kind of guy, hopefully that can help his team down the road, even if it's not out of the starting realm.

Now joined by my co-host here, James Seltzer. James, Eno Saris. Eno! Hey! What up, brother? Hey! Is it alright if I just... I'm glad you're having a meeting. Yeah, well, I am too, I'll be blatantly honest. I desperately wanted to be here instead.

Is it alright if I just ask questions about the band Fish and we don't talk baseball at all? Is cool i was a big big big fan back in the day i still go i think i'm going to go to one in san francisco but uh i i used to you know travel around a little bit me too you know we we got some things in common there we like beer and we like fish this is a good thing yeah i drove all the way down to florida for that uh the 2001 you were in big cypress i was that was awesome now jack is looking at me with the mystified look on his face i just don't get fish i'm sorry i just don't get which is which is understandable and that's fine we'll keep it for ourselves uh you know uh jumping in here and

obviously uh i know you guys have already covered some stuff here but just looking at the the rotation you guys talked a little velasquez a little pavetta if you had to kind of put your finger on you know obviously there's a potential for an arietta or someone else to come in here but other than that who of these guys the efflins the the pavettas of alaska is the whole crew here uh eikhoff who do you think's got a real shot to be in the starting rotation come opening day? Well, I think Aaron Nola's going to be in the starting rotation. I figured that was a hit without saying.

The secret ace himself, Aaron Nola. No, I think it's going to be Nola and Eikhoff, I think, are all set. I think it's going to be Nolan Eikhoff, I think, are all set. Even if Eikhoff is more league average than better than that, they need that. So, you know, I think he's in. You know, Velazquez, I think they are in a place win-wise that they can give him another shot at starting all year. And I think they want to do that. They can always turn him into a closer, into a reliever.

Maybe it'll happen later this year. Like, for example, if they're good this year but he's struggling, then you could see him going to the bullpen really easily because his addition to the bullpen could make them have like a really, really good bullpen. I mean, I love Neres and Neshek and Hunter are good situationally. If you put Velasquez in there as an Archie Bradley type, that could be a really sweet bullpen. But in the meantime, they don't have enough starters that I really believe in to put Velasquez in the bullpen. So I'm going Nola, I call Velasquez, Teveta, and I have a hard time there at the bottom.

I don't know what's going to happen. Pinto was just thrown 98, but he almost took someone's head off today. Sounds about right. And Eflin, I just don't know if he has the stuff. Morgan was better in the pen, as everybody is. Lively had some good deception. Leiter has better command. I think it might end up being Leiter.

Oh, God. Please, no. I just don't know. I just don't know that I see. I think putting Arrieta on this team would be huge. If you just push Velasquez into the five spot or whatever, or Pavetta, that would make me feel so much better. Lighter and lively, they can be spot starters.

They can be guys who come up and go down. But I don't really want to award one of them a slot. And, like, what are your projections for Arrieta? Because everyone knows he's kind of on the downswing of his career. But do you think there's still something salvageable there? I mean, I don't think he was that bad last year. You know, we were kind of focusing on the home runs at a time when home runs exploded, you know, and otherwise his strikeout rate and walk rate were in line and he lost a little

bit off the slider. I wouldn't call him a bad pitcher. In fact, I think Nola will jump into a number one type situation pretty soon. And having Arrieta be his number two, I think would really work out. All right. Let's say that Arrieta doesn't work out. Are there any other names? I know Alex Cobb's a name that's been thrown around. There's Lance Lynn. There are a few of those names out there. Anyone in particular you think, if they can't get Arrieta, an interesting guy for the Phillies to go after?

Well, you know, the thing about Cobb that's interesting is A, he never found his split finger after surgery. That used to be a huge part of his success. However, he did pretty well with a fastball curve mix, and his curve is very good.

Maybe you can say he'll be all right, and maybe he can get that split finger back. The other thing I found is that he pitches closer to his max than any or I think almost any other starting pitcher in baseball. He's already kind of doing the old pitcher thing where he's

just airing it out, you know, until they take him out of the game. And that sort of thing adds stress. And he's already had this long history of injury. So, you know, I'm not sure about his injury status. And, you know, Lance Lynn is not so attractive. I mean, physically, maybe, but, you know. He's a handsome man, you know. He's got that woodsman type, but, you know. He's a handsome man, you know.

He's got that woodsman type of look, you know. The chunky woodsman. Right, yeah, put a flannel on him and you're good to go. Right. And people don't like him because he didn't get a lot of swing strikes and didn't seem to have that strikeout stuff, but he varies the speeds on his fastball a lot and i know he just had a tommy john but i'd be i'd give him more innings than alex cobb in the

next three years and with a rotation like this it might be really helpful to have an inning uh eater um and uh and i also think that like know, he could throw the slider more. And the changeup has shown some ups and downs. Like a different pitching coach, I could see one of those secondary pitches kind of coming to the fore. And I don't know. It all depends on price. You know, whatever number they're actually looking at,

that's what I'd love to know what numbers their representation are looking for. know what numbers their representation are looking for. But if it's a cheap Lance Lynn deal over a more expensive Alex Cobb deal, I'll take Lance Lynn in a second. You know, you're a fan of analytics, a part of the community for a while. What are your impressions of Gabe Kapler? Obviously, someone kind of coming out of that mold, granted, played in the majors for over a decade, which people seem to forget. But what are your impressions of Kapler? a kind of an outside the box hire there

yeah well it's interesting i think it's uh i think analytics actually gets you to the table so i'm not sure that um that there are analytics hires anymore you know what i mean like it's a prerequisite yeah exactly yeah no It's a prerequisite. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, no, it's a good point. I mean, I know that the Tigers hired Garden Hire, but I don't think the Tigers are going to be good. So I feel like they hired him to fire him, if you know what I'm saying. Sure.

So I think that in a young and up-and-coming team that's trying to get a good manager that they believe in, analytics gets you to the table. There's no way, you know, Dave Roberts gets that job without being friendly to analytics. So I tend to think of the manager as kind of a personality, a leading personality and a people manager. a leading personality and a people manager. And he comes in, I think, with the recent experience, the young manager. I think that he could do a really good job with these kids. As a personality, he's intense.

Yeah, you could say that again. I just feel like people react differently to that sort of intensity. I mean, I know that Terry Collins was just the guy in New York, and when he had his previous job in Anaheim, he sort of lost the room because he was too intense. And players thought he was too much of a yeller and this and that. So, you know, I do think that he's exciting and that he's got a lot of cool ideas about nutrition. And he's obviously yoked.

But, you know, in terms of how his personality rubs the room, we'll see. I mean, there's, you know, there's archetypes. There's like kind of the Dusty Baker archetype. And then there's a little bit more of the Terry Collins, Kirk Gibson archetype. You know, there's the Yellers, the strict managers, and there's the player managers. And I tend to think that that matters a little bit more, is that there's a certain right mix for your players. Maybe young players need to have a guy who's going to be intense.

I mean, maybe they need that sort of professionalism, and maybe a veteran squad can have a players manager in there. I don't think the 2011 Phillies would have taken very kindly to Gabe Kapler. Well, what we saw first, Dan, I mean, we went from Larry Boa to Charlie Manuel. That was the difference there, that type of thing. I think that's a great point there in terms

of Joe Torre. Failed one place, goes right set of guys, right spot, and he's a Hall of Famer. So you're going to be buying a B-Bold shirt anytime soon for Gabe? Hey, you know, one more, one more for me. I just had a piece about wind projections. I know you've talked a lot about that. Can you talk a little bit about where the Phillies are at and kind of what you're expecting?

Yeah, I was surprised to find that the error bars, the noise and wind projections is fairly hefty. And we were actually looking at the numbers a little bit wrong. When we re-ran them, we found that standard deviation was nine wins, which means, just to kind of try and put it in an easy way, just to kind of try and put it in an easy way, that means that 95% of teams will fall between 18 wins above and below their win projection. So for a team that's projected like the Mets to go 500,

they could literally win 99 or lose 99. Sounds kind of silly. How much are we? Of course, two-thirds of teams fall within one. So it's probably better to say that they give you a sort of general sense of the quality of a team. But if you're saying the Phillies are projected for 74 wins right now, they could easily win 83. That's within the two-thirds boundary.

And if they're on pace to win 83, maybe they acquire somebody in the middle of the season or maybe they can still add a pitcher like we're talking about. I think I see them as closer to 500 than maybe projections do and maybe most people do. And they also were the youngest team in baseball last year. So in that sense, they are going to grow together. They're going to get closer to their peak, and they're in a good spot.

I like them as much as anybody. I know that people put them up against the Braves, but the Phillies have more young talent that's in the big leagues that's already hit. You know what I mean? That's already done something and they're not depending as much like the Braves are on players that

have never played in the big leagues. What are your thoughts on the young core the Phillies have? The Hoskins, Kingery, Crawford, Herrera, Alfaro. I guess Franco, you gotta put him in there. Yeah, I know. He's a bit shaky. But in general, what are your thoughts on that core going forward? Do you think it's building something special here? Do you think they're just an average-ish core that has a bunch of good players but really not a star player? What are your general thoughts on the young core that's building here? I like it. I like it a lot.

I think J.P. Crawford's going to be better than his projections. He's going to like the Major League ball compared to the Minor League ball. And I think he's going to show power and speed. I still believe in Michael Franco. He hits the ball hard. Nobody

he's among the best five in improving his launch angle in the second half last year. If he can just hit it a little bit more in the air, he can have a huge breakout season. Carlos Santana, to me, is a great signing.

Uh, I know people, uh, talk about Cesar Hernandez's, uh, brain or, you know, his,

his, uh, you know, his baseball acumen or whatever. Baseball IQ, I guess. Yeah, they say he runs into outs and stuff, but how better to get better than that than play a lot of baseball? I don't see it as keeping him from being at least a league average guy for a while.

Hoskins, to me, is your free hitter. He can play the outfield for a little bit. We'll see how that goes. Odebel kind of strikes me to his R&N where you see him run around the ball a lot. He hasn't been playing center field for all that long. I like this core.

I think there's even a little bit of surplus possibly on the infield with Kingery. And if that's true, then they have maybe somebody they can trade for pitching. They're going to have a lot of money coming, or they have a lot of money to spend at some point, so they can buy pitching. I like this. This squad, I think, can win it all at some point if they make the right move going forward. Uh-oh.

That's what I'm talking about right there. So are you saying the Phillies are a sleeping giant, like we've been saying around here? I don't see the problem at all. I don't see the problem at all. I mean, I know why people are down on Franco, but the worst-case scenario for guys like Franco Hernandez and a doable are league average players.

Now you've got a league average center field or league average third base and league average center second baseman, a possible star and left, a possible star at short. Yeah. I'm, I'm good with that. What do you think about batting Carlos Santana in the two hole? I think that's the best, the best place for him to be. I mean, you definitely want your best hitters near the top of the lineup. You know, I think Crawford can live there because of his OBP, and he looks more stereotypical.

Herrera kind of goes in and out with the walks, right? He kind of has periods where he's always walking and then periods where he doesn't walk at all that to me I might want lower in the order I don't think that I necessarily need him at the top so my ideal order saying that Crawford hits the way I think he can hit

would probably be Crawford, Santana, Hoskins you know I know I am, I know Jack is I know the vast majority of our audience big beer drinkers. Give us a beer recommendation right now. Because if anyone follows Eno on Twitter, they know that he is a man who knows his brews. Yeah, but your area is a little bit hard for me.

I have some trading partners in New York and down in North Carolina. And I need somebody to trade with me. You know, send me some tired hands. That's my wheelhouse right there. Yeah, send me some pizza boy. Yeah, we can make that happen. But, you know, in terms of like nationally available, I just had some jam bands from.

That's how you do it, you know, right terms of, like, nationally available, I just had some jam bands from... Look at that. That's how you do it, you know, right there. It's good work. It's back all together. It's a jam band from Boulevard, and it's really sweet. My wife was like, ah, soda. But I liked it. And then another one that's everywhere that I...

It's, like, always my recommendation, especially as the weather warms. I love Firestone Walker's Easy Jack. It's just like a 4.5% beer, super easy. You can crush a bunch of them. It's a session beer right there, baby. Yeah, exactly. And it's always in my fridge during the summer.

Well, you're a big – I saw you tweeting about the New England IPAs recently, and I'm on a huge New England IPA kick. You got any specific New England IPA recommendations for us? Well, those are tough because, you know, a lot of times you have to stay in the line for those, and they're hard to find. Because they're so good. Yeah, they're so good.

Obviously, Treehouse and Trillium led the way. I had some really good ones from other half. Well, I was the other half and Grimm have some good ones while I was in New York. But, you know, now they're starting to creep onto the, you know, nationally available scene. There's a couple of McKellar's trying to make one. Sierra Nevada has a thing called Hazy Little Thing. You're going to start seeing it from the national breweries. And the McKellar ones, I think, are pretty good.

If you ever see McKellar, you know, cloudy, they say New England IPAs, and they just have a different name every week. So if you see a McKellar New England IPA, give it a try. I've been happy with about 8 out of 10 of the ones I've had. That's what I'm talking about right there, you know. That's good knowledge out of you. This baseball talk was fun, but let's talk some beer. Yeah, that's what really matters.

I mean, come on, right? Well, you know, the thing that makes it so great is the thing that makes it hard to talk about, which is that, you know, it's so regional. And I love landing somewhere and being like, take me to your best beer. And trading, that's, I love that. But then, you know, you get on a podcast, you get on a radio show,

and they say, make a beer recommendation. I'm like, oh, you know, what market was this again? Yeah, right. It's like, I'll tell you a beer, but you're not gonna be able to drink it. Right, right. That's why Easy jack is always an easy one for me and and we got jack fritz right here how about that that's well done you know before we let you go last question uh from a fantasy perspective because i know you've been known to play a little fantasy baseball yourself obviously hoskins nola a couple guys worth owning anyone any sleepers any guys on

this team that you're kind of maybe taking a little higher than others are, or you might be drafting that other people aren't interested in? Yeah. I mean, I think I gave a little tidbit about Michael Franco, the reason I'm believing in

him. In deeper leagues, Cesar Hernandez is a good, easy way to get 20 steals at a time when no one's stealing bases. I'll take him. Odubel doesn't seem to get drafted for some reason, and he's a solid player in the same sort of vein. I'm taking Bavetta as my last pitcher in a lot of deeper leagues. I like that. That's a real sleeper right there.

Yeah, those are the types of players. I have a really deep league. Let me see if I can. I have a really deep league where every year I just take a ton of pitchers and like Miles Nicholas, Nick Pavetta, Chris Stratton. It is a deep league, huh? Yeah, those are the kind of guys I'd love to take because there's so many guys when it comes to pitching

that just tweak a little something and break out. And it seems, by definition, happens more among pitching than hitting. Pitching is harder to predict. Agreed. Well, Eno, thanks for joining us here on the High Hopes podcast. I really appreciate it. Your insight is always valuable here.

And next time you come to Philly, let us know. We'll take you to Tired Hands, and we'll enjoy some beautiful brews from that beautiful brewery. Yes, must have. Yes, and if you're not subscribed to The Athletic, folks, you're doing it wrong. You're doing life wrong. Their MLB coverage is unbelievable.

It's like the 1927 yankees of of baseball coverage all right it's the murderers row that's how good it is and you know it's a huge part of it well thanks for having me on all right thanks you know all-star closer kenley jansen we have a question what's the best podcast of all time baseball isn't boring baby i'm rob bradford and every single day i'm sitting down with the biggest names to show you this great game is the greatest game it's my podcast it's my passion it's a cause i started more than two years ago and it's now the most prolific national daily baseball pod there is another fact so jump aboard the bib express follow and listen to baseball isn't boring presented by wasabi hot cloud storage on the free odyssey app or wherever you get your podcasts