High Hopes: A Phillies Podcast - How Much Can Phillies Offer For Shohei Ohtani? | WIP Daily

Episode Date: July 17, 2023

Joe Giglio and Tucker discuss the Shohei Ohtani trade market and what his value could be to the Phillies as a rental. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Whether the action is at the link or the bank, there's never an off day on Broad Street. It's the biggest news of the day, every day, with takes from someone who's never short on them. It's WIP Daily with Joe Giglio. Welcome on in, WIP Daily, Joe Giglio with you. Appreciate everyone who follows the podcast, subscribes, and of, our video feed, 94WIP, our YouTube page. Tucker Bagley will join me in a few minutes here as we talk about the Phillies who had a great weekend. Look, Friday night was not good, and Saturday was like, uh-oh, here we go.

They're going to go down 0-2 in this four-game series, and it's going to be a long weekend for the Phillies against a Padres team who are desperate for wins. And then by the end of the weekend, through a sweep of a doubleheader Saturday and a really just dramatic clutch walk-off win on Sunday, the Phillies get three out of four. And it's really starting to pile up now how well this team has played since the beginning of June.

You know, moving Kyle Stewart back to the leadoff spot and the pitching coming around, the Phillies are 26-10 in their last 36 games. And if you look back since they started off 0-4 and they had an awful start to their season, they've played at a 93-win pace from that moment. And before the season, I thought this was slightly above a 90-win team with all the talent they'd assembled, 91, 92. So they've played like that team, although it hasn't been perfect for a long time now. This is a good baseball team.

Is it a great one? No. Are they locks to make the playoffs? They're not. I'd say a little bit above 50% to make it maybe 55, 60%, depending on projections you look at today, but they have a nice chance to make the playoffs. And right now it'd be very disappointing based on the teams in the NL wildcard race that they're with to not make the playoffs. But the Phillies weren't built to make the playoffs. That really felt like a given before the season. The Phillies are built, and the goal of this group is to win the World Series.

And as we canvas all the possible moves they can make, and we've talked a lot about them on this show over the past month or so, moves they can make, how they can rearrange this roster, which kind of players they can fit in seamlessly, and then which ones maybe would take a little bit more thought process to make it work. There's one that stands out above and it is the rarest opportunity of all time. I mean, and I mean that in terms of the trade market, and that is Shohei Otani. I mean, a guy that you could say with a straight face is the greatest baseball player to ever play this game could be traded within the next two weeks.

And the Phillies have been linked in some ways. You know, there's been some articles out there for the Phillies of interest. Dan Pleszak, MLB Network, just last week listed the Phillies as a team he thinks could acquire Otani as a pure rental. And as you look at the Phillies and what they need and what could put them over the top, And as you look at the Phillies and what they need and what could put them over the top, I am rarely in favor of one player is worth going all in for as a rental. Because, look, how much could one player make a difference? But I don't think we can look at Joey Otani as one player. He's one person, but he's multiple players in one. He is a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, assuming the cracked fingernail on his finger that's given him trouble last week or so heals.

I would imagine it would. It's not like a muscle. It's not like an elbow. It's a fingernail. As long as that heals and he can go back to pitching effectively, he's the greatest two-way player in the history of baseball, surpassing what Babe Ruth ever did. So he's out there. He's likely available. what Babe Ruth ever did. So he's out there. He's likely available. And over the weekend,

John Marossi of MLB.com reported the Angels want to start the conversation with two top 100 prospects. So I thought today, let's go through what that means. Could the Phillies get involved? And how much is too much to offer for a rental? Because that really will become the story between now and August 1st, maybe October 1st, but August 1st for the trade deadline. How much is too much? Because the Angels are very within their rights to ask for the biggest package ever for a rental. This is two players. You are effectively getting, if he can be the guy he's shown to be. I'll just put it this way before we get into the players and top 100 prospects and all that. I was looking at his numbers this morning. So Shelly Otani right now has 34 home runs. He's slugging 665. To put that slugging percentage in perspective, that is almost

identical to Barry Bonds as a San Francisco giant. You know, in the 15 or whatever years he spent in San Francisco, he slugged 666. You're getting Barry Bonds' power. I mean, nothing else to say, but you're getting Barry Bonds' power as a giant, which is obviously historic. And on the mound, he's not perfect as a pitcher. He's a better offensive player than he is a pitcher, but he's a really good pitcher. 3.5 ERA, almost 11 strikeouts per nine innings. The comparison I have is you're getting earlier career, young Hugh Darvish. Like when Darvish came over and was a Texas Ranger, was a Dodger, that kind of era of Hugh Darvish. You're getting Hugh Darvish on the mound and you're getting Barry Bonds to play as a rental. It will take whatever team he goes to,

and I think rarely do trade deadline rentals move the needle that much. Once in a while, a guy goes on a great run. J.D. Martinez had a great run with the Diamondbacks a few years ago. Manny Ramirez, 08 with the Dodgers, insane run. Randy Johnson, 1998 with the Astros. Once in a while, a guy changes a team. But for the most part, it doesn't. But this guy will.

World Series odds will shift when he gets traded, and it's a matter of what the Phillies are willing to offer. So if we go off of the report and what the Angels are looking for to start a conversation, they want multiple, starting with two, top 100 prospects. So if you go to MLB.com and every ranking, every list is a little bit different. But I would think with the Phillies, it would be pretty static. They're going to have three guys on there. different, but I would think with the Phillies, it'd be pretty static. They're going to have three guys on there. Maybe a fourth list will sneak on, excuse me, an extra list will sneak on a fourth guy, but it's probably three guys I would think across the board that are consensus

top 100 Phillies prospects. It's Andrew Painter, who's around that top 10 range. It's Mick Abel. I think MLB.com had him in the 40-ish range. And it's Justin Crawford, last year's first-round pick, son of Carl Crawford, who's in the bottom 20 or so, 80, around the number 80. So three top 100 prospects that Phillies have. Now, it puts them at a disadvantage because that's really the heavy part of their farm system. Meanwhile, a team like the Dodgers, who I would think are the frontrunner to get them right now and probably the frontrunner to get them in free agency after the season. They have nine top 100 prospects. They could just flick away two or three the way they did a few years ago when they traded for

Max Scherzer and they traded for Trey Turner. And it was like, yeah, no big deal. And those guys are actually turning out to be productive players for the Nationals, which was Zia Gray and Kiba Rui. So they have that kind of depth. The Phillies don't. But is it worth it? So from where I sit, it is. Like, obviously, I would try to avoid trading Andrew Painter, and I would offer them Mick Abel and Justin Crawford. But it is worth it because of a few reasons.

Number one, he solves two issues at once. The Phillies, for as well as they've played over the past six weeks, still aren't hitting for enormous power. They just aren't. You know, Bryce Harper had a big home run over the weekend and had a big weekend, so maybe that power is about to come. And on Friday's episode, I guessed Harper would hit, you know, 10 or so home runs in the second half.

So I think that's going to happen. But that still doesn't fix the power out or just everywhere else besides Kyle Schwarber. You know, Castellanos is more of a line drive hitter. If he gets a 25 home runs, I'll be happy with that. Trey Turner is going to hit about 20, you know, 15, 18 or 20, but he's not a power hitter. Okay. Then you go down the order and it's just, it's, there's not much there power wise.

It's a lot of guys that'll finish between 10 to 18 home runs. That's not a lot. So Otani is the best power hitter in the game right now with Judge Sidelined, and you can make the case that two of them go back and forth anyway. But you add enormous power to the lineup. You add enormous offense to the lineup. And, yes, I realize by doing this, the machinations of the team would change, and you're not really improving the defense because you're going to have to actually end up at the end of the day with Harper at first, which is

going to happen this week. Maybe tomorrow we'll talk about that and how that could look. And sure, we're back in laps. Because Otani, I know he played the outfield at one point. He's not an outfielder anymore. I mean, he's strictly a DH and a pitcher. He DHs on the days he has a pitch and then he pitches and hits. So it would throw the improved defense off. But I think the gain you would get on offense is just so enormous. And then you have the pitching side of it where he slots into the rotation right at the top. I mean, if Wheeler is the guy he was last year, I think Wheeler is a little bit of a better pitcher. If Nola at times has been a better pitcher, but this year certainly is not.

So you could start a playoff series with this guy on the mound and hitting fourth in the lineup. I mean, it's just it's unbelievable what this would do for the Phillies team. They're already a good team. We know they're not a great team. But if you add this guy, it changes everything about the Phillies. I mean, they go from being a team that I think is dangerous if they get in to a team that you could legitimately say they're going to win the World Series if they get Shohei Otani. That's how good this guy is. That is how rare of a player he is and how few players like him ever arrive. But then just look, think about how players, the caliber of pitcher he is, get traded at the deadline. Maybe once a year.

There's someone, I'll bet him. Hitters like this almost never get traded at the deadline. Again, Manny Ramirez back in 08. It's like we could pick out examples of once every three or four years, one half of him gets traded. Now you're having this year where both halves together in the same person get traded. Look, if it comes down to Andrew Painter and they say, you can't win this deal, you can't beat the Dodgers, you can't beat the Yankees

without giving Andrew Painter, I think I would do it because we're at the point now where the Phillies are built to win the World Series. They look like a pretty good bet to go back to the playoffs. But once they get there,

they're flawed and there's no guarantee they're going to be a World Series team. You get Shohei Otani and I understand there's no guarantee either, but you give yourself the best chance to win the World Series. This team was going to be a World Series team. You get Shohei Otani, and I understand there's no guarantee either, but you give yourself the best chance to win the World Series. This team was built to win the World Series. Dave Dombrowski was brought here to try to win a World Series, not to elongate the future.

And that's always, again, a problem with Dombrowski teams, and it could bite them. But I'm willing to roll the dice on this team to get this player, even if it's for three months. That's how good Shohei Otani is. Again, I would try to avoid Painter in the deal. Of course, the Phillies would too, but if they're willing to talk on Abel and Crawford, I'm ready. I'll go make the deal now for Shohei Otani. Tucker, what are you thinking here on Otani? The Angels say, we start the conversation with two top 100 prospects. It's only a rental, but it might be the coolest rental in baseball

history. Yeah, I mean, usually when we talk about a rental and kind of that price tag, you scoff at it, right? And usually around this time, like two weeks before the deadline, that's what GMs come out with. And then as we get close to the deadline, the asking price drops quite a bit. But I think we'll show youoya Ohtani, there will be a bidding war. And I think it's funny we talk about it strictly as a rental and not as a long-term piece, which certainly scares me because I think if you do it or whoever makes the trade for him, unless it's a team like Tampa or maybe even Texas, there's a chance that whoever trades for him is hoping to do it with long-term goals in mind.

And I don't know, like he said before, he doesn't really want to play on the East coast. So who knows like what kind of fit he would have here, but I think you look at what he is. I mean, he has 34 home runs, just nine more than anybody else in the Phillies. ZRA is 3.5 right now, which would lead the rotation, depending on how you want to put Christopher Sanchez in there, considering he's only got three starts so far this season. But other than that, I mean, he would be the best player on the Phillies. We talk about this team and, oh, Bryce Harper's the best player. I mean, but Bryce Harper isn't really Bryce Harper this year, right?

And Trey Turner came in and there was talk in spring training, well, whose team is it? Who's the better player and Trey Turner hasn't necessarily shown up although he did play better and you know kind of redeemed himself this weekend um it was some of his defense and a couple clutch hits but the thing I look at and if I were the angels you know you mentioned Painter Abel and Crawford and I know people would probably give pause to trading Andrew Painter and I get it even though it isn't really a sure thing.

He's still experiencing elbow discomfort. He still hasn't gotten back on a mound since a couple weeks ago when he started to feel poorly in his elbow. But if I were the Angels, I mean, what's stopping them from asking for young players on their roster, right? Like, what's stopping them from saying, we want Alec Bone or we want Bryson Stott I mean the Phillies have a lot of young talent on their their major league roster I don't think they're gonna ask for for Pache or Brandon Marsh because they they clearly soured on

him but I think if I were Los Angeles if I were the Angels for an office I'd say fine you know the the offer obviously starts with Andrew Painter and, and I don't think they'd be out of their, their minds to say, we want Andrew Painter and Bryson Stott and Alec Boehm and Justin Crawford. Like, like we want guys who were top 100 prospects 18 months ago. Well, they wouldn't be, they wouldn't, it wouldn't be out of line to do it. And, and you know what, Boehm, I would do in a heartbeat. That wouldn't, that wouldn't it wouldn't be at a lot to do it and and you know what boom i would do in a heartbeat uh that wouldn't that wouldn't worry me stott is the one that's the one i was like man to give away the next you know four plus years i think i guess it's four years depending on his service how much i think four years uh more of bryce's thought for maybe two months of otani

but again it's it's shohei otani like we're talking about the guy that is the greatest player of all time and the talent level on this phillies and the pedigree on this Phillies team, if they landed Otani, you think back to some of those Yankees teams that had a lot of former MVPs, first-round picks, all that kind of stuff. I think back to that 92, 93 Blue Jays team, obviously, that everyone in Philadelphia did as well. They were loaded with future Hall of Famers. The Phillies would have that kind of feel to them.

Look, there also is one other aspect to this, and I understand it's not Dave Dombrowski's job to think like this, but we're not Dave Dombrowski. I'm not Dave Dombrowski. Tucker's not Dave Dombrowski. You watching? Well, maybe. I mean, I suppose Dombrowski could watch this, but I'm guessing Dave Dombrowski is not viewing this episode right now. He should be a little bit busier around the trade deadline. But there's a cool factor to this too. There's like something that is rare that we almost ever get to see in sports. And he could be a Philadelphia athlete. That's Shohei Otani.

Should it come into my handicap if I make the deal or not? I don't know. I don't care. I want to watch this guy in Philadelphia. I want to watch him play. I think back to some of the best players we've seen in Philadelphia the past 20 years or so. And the electricity in the city, Allen Iverson, go-to. Terrell Owens.

Roy Halladay. The electricity when those guys, Bryce Harper, are at the top of their game. Like Bryce Harper last October. Could you imagine Citizens Bank Park in October, game one of a playoff series, Shohei Otani with the ball in his hands, and then the bottom of the first inning gets a home run after striking out the side in the first. It would be unlike anything we've ever seen that almost any sports fan has ever seen on a team that was this close last year. You add Shohei Otani to the Phillies, I believe they win the

World Series. That is enough for me to say, let's make a deal. I know it's not probably a long-term fit, like Tucker said. It might be worth it just for right now, just for this team, for this year, for this group to try to go win a World Series. If he's available, and it seems like he is more every day, the Phillies have to make him priority number one and then kind of work down to the more obvious and more realistic fits. Go get Shohei Ohtani. He's that special.

Thanks for listening. Thanks for watching. Back tomorrow right here on WIP Daily.