High Hopes: A Phillies Podcast - How Much Should The Phillies Offer Zack Wheeler? | WIP Daily

Episode Date: February 15, 2024

Joe Giglio takes a look at the Phillies negotiations with star pitcher Zack Wheeler. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Whether the action is at the link or the bank, there's never an off day on Broad Street. It's the biggest news of the day, every day, with takes from someone who's never short on them. It's WIP Daily with Joe Giglio. Welcome on in, WIP Daily, Joe Giglio with you. Appreciate everyone listening, subscribing, following the podcast. Of course, our YouTube page, 94WIP. Check it out there. All the great video content from our podcast and on air at WIP.

All right, a lot going on right now, especially down in Clearwater as the Phillies pitchers are catching the reporter. They started throwing the baseball yesterday. The mitts are popping. It is as I think it's like 26 degrees here in Philadelphia today. It's certainly fun to listen. I was listening to Topper's press conference yesterday. Some of the players talking after the workouts yesterday and just the feel of baseball is back. The Phillies are back and it's going to be fun. The lead up to what is going to be a very

highly anticipated season and the leader of that pitching staff that was out there yesterday is Zach Wheeler. And we know his contract is up after the season. It's become a major talking point. Wheeler very open yesterday about the idea of he's a, you know, he and his agent, but mostly his agent talking to the Phillies. They've begun dialogue. He didn't seem to know much other than they're discussing what a contract extension could look like. He seems very open and wanting to stay. I'm sure the Phillies want him to stay. The guy is a premier pitcher. Zach Wheeler, I think it snuck up on everyone the first couple years, and that's all of a sudden slapped us in the face the last, you know, he's been here four years, this will be his fifth. But how great this guy

has been. How great. He's been here for over 100 starts. He has a 3.06 ERA that doesn't even include his masterful performance in the postseason the last couple years. Zach Wheeler is an ace. Zach Wheeler is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Zach Wheeler is one of the best pitchers to ever wear a Phillies uniform. And Zach Wheeler is one of, if not the greatest, free agent pitching contract I've ever seen. Usually you give five-plus-year contracts on the free agent market or even just any free agent contract of multiple years. And the pitchers come with wear and tear. I mean, the guy has been pitching accolades years, puts up innings,

and then you don't usually get the second part of that guy. If you're paying big money, it's probably not as good as it was in the beginning. But this is a rare instance where it's been better. Zach Wheeler's act here has been better than it was with the New York Mets. Other contracts I could put in this realm, you've seen it with the Yankees, Sabathia with the Yankees. Halliday was a trade here, but certainly for a couple years he was masterful. I could go back to Randy Johnson with the Diamondbacks,

obviously Greg Maddox with the Atlanta Braves. But the fact that Zach Wheeler's in the conversation with those guys shows how great that contract was. Five years, $118 million. He's totally outperformed it. When I heard him talk yesterday, he was seemingly towing the line between happiness and wanting to stay making it clear this is where he wants to be.

But he also acknowledged market value. So it has me thinking, how much is this going to cost? What is going to be the cost of Zach Wheeler? And are the Phillies willing to go to a place that they have never gone before? Despite all of the big contracts the Phillies have doled out over the past four or five years between Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber and Trey Turner, you know, obviously the Wheeler one, now Aaron Nola, they have never in their history given out a contract in which a player has an average annual value, you know, per year of $30 million or more.

That hasn't happened, right? They added all those years to the Bryce Harper contract. They added the years to the Trey Turner contract. They added the years to the Trey Turner contract. They added the years to the Aaron Nola contract. And with Wheeler, it becomes a little bit trickier. Bryce was obviously really young. He was in his mid-20s. That was easy.

You know, there was some reporting out there. They even wanted to go longer. And then maybe baseball was like, I don't know if we should do that. Let's keep it to a reasonable amount. Trey Turner, I thought they went way too long for a shortstop. But at least you could say he's athletic. He's a shortstop. The first five years will be really good, and then maybe he'll move positions or whatever, and his bat will carry him. You could justify it,

even though I wouldn't have done it. With Aaron Nola, let's tack on an extra one or two because we want to keep him, lower that average annual value, and keep things reasonable for the luxury tax. Well, Wheeler is older than any of those guys were, or I didn't even mention Real Muto in the same realm, but they got him kind of for his prime years. But none of those guys were as old as Wheeler is now. Wheeler is 33 right now today as we have this podcast. He'll be 34 during the season. This will be his age 34 season.

So the Phillies will be trying to retain him for his age 35 and beyond season. This will be his age 34 season. So the Phillies will be trying to retain him for his age 35 and beyond season. You know, 35, 36, 37, 38, that's if it's a four-year deal. We go to the age 39 season if it is a five-year deal. So anything beyond four or five years feels like almost a non-starter. I mean, how could you sign a power pitcher to a six-year deal entering his age 35 season or a seven-year deal? I mean, I think in theory, that's what the Phillies typically do. They just did it with Aaron Nola in terms of the years,

but that doesn't seem to apply here because Wheeler is older. Now, I think he and his agent can make a real case that his arm is younger because he had so many injuries early in his career that he's not really in essence you know a player that you know is like other 34 year old pitchers that has had you know a lot of innings and tons of wear and tear on their arm because he missed a lot of time

you know it took him a while to get going and then once he got going he had injuries it wasn't until he got to Philadelphia Zach Wheeler that he really started to become, you know, a guy you could rely on on the mound every fifth day. He really wasn't. That was part of the reason the Mets were okay letting him go. He wasn't that guy. I mean, in Zach Wheeler's career, he's at 1,378 innings. So you can make a real case he's got another 1,000 arms,

1,000 innings. I almost said 1,000 arms in that inning. He could have another 1,000 innings in that arm, and that would carry you for the next four to five years, depending on how many postseasons and how many starts he gets there. But that's where he's at. That's the player, and we know how dominant he's been, how great he has been. So my perspective here is the Phillies are going to have to go to an uncomfortable place to sign Zach Wheeler.

Yesterday in The Athletic, Matt Gelb reported that Wheeler's agents wanted the starting point to be Max Scherzer's most recent deal of $43 million per season average annual value. OK, $43 million average annual value. That is 43 million average annual value. That is an enormous amount of money. It's 13 million clear of the most the Phillies have ever given anyone in a season. So this is likely trending toward an uncomfortable point for the Phillies. I know they wanna keep him.

We know they have the overall money. Like a check for 200 million is not gonna hurt them. They offered a check of over 300 million for Yamamoto this offseason. It's the per year. It's how you build the team around that. It's tax penalties. It's all that kind of stuff that does factor in. Like I don't care about John Middleton's money.

I don't think you care about John Middleton's money. But Dave Dabrowski has made this point, and he's right on this, that when you continue to be a tax offender, it does affect you in other ways. International signing bonus money, draft picks. So there is something to think about besides just give him whatever he wants. There's more to it to build the best team year in, year out than just that. All that being said, the Phillies got to sign Zach Wheeler. I mean, this guy, you know, I do my annual list of the top ten players in Philadelphia sports every year.

I do it around June. You know, if Wheeler starts the season the way he typically pitches, I don't see how he's not a top three athlete in Philadelphia right now. That's how great he is. That's how great he is. I think we have almost missed it the last few years because Harper, Joel Embiid, Jalen Hurts, especially 2022, get all of the attention. A.J. Brown, Jason Kelsey. But this guy, his performance is up there with any of them.

Any of them. I mean, I truly mean that. And what he means to the staff, he's the clear ace. He slots Nola where he needs to be. And he's the clear ace he slots nola where he needs to be and he's been he's been dynamic and you look at this team without him and it'd be like oh what are they gonna do i know andrew painter could be coming in 2025 but that is certainly on on pause now because the tommy john surgery he had last year so wheeler yesterday also mentioned that he you know he wasn't necessarily

trying to make up for past. I think he's been underpaid. I'll put it that way. He didn't make money with the Mets. And then the Phillies signed him to a very, very smart contract where they bet on his future and they've been right. So he signed a five-year $118 million deal. Now let's not throw flowers or put flowers down

or shed any tears for Zach Wheeler and his family. $118 million is a very nice chunk of change for any pro athlete. He's going to make that by the time this contract ends with the Phillies. But he's been underpaid based on his performance. There's no question. So the last few years, Wheeler's making an average annual about 23-ish, a little over 23 per year. He's been worth, and I'm going to exclude the pandemic season because that was a weird year with 60 games, but he's been worth in the last three years,

according to fan graphs, $137.6 million. So the Phillies have gotten like a $70 million surplus in value with how great Zach Wheeler's been. And now I'm sure Wheeler and his agent are saying it's our time. You know, we don't want to go crazy here, but we want to be paid like one of the five best pitchers at baseball, and he should be. So the number out there yesterday, 43 million average annual, feels pretty heavy. The Phillies have never gone over 30. My guess right now on what it's going to take to get Zach Wheeler to resign is something in the range of 4-180, which would be about 45

per year, which would give him the opportunity to set the record of average annual value for a pitcher. He would go over where Scherzer was last offseason. And you throw that on, if you tack it on to what we have already, Wheeler's here for the next five years. And we could have semantics on the way they do the contract. And I guess they'd have to add it and it would become a new contract. So I'm not sure if you could blend it with the 23 they have this year for luxury tech purposes. But just $4,180, $45 million per year for Zach Wheeler.

I think that is certainly a reasonable ask by his camp. It gets the Phillies out of that age 30. What would that be? Out of the age 39 season, he'd be back for age 35, 36, 37, 38. So that's where he would be. And you wouldn't push into his 40s. And again, this is a power pitcher. We'll see how long he lasts.

We'll see how his arm holds up. Some power pitchers, Scherzer, Verlander, and I could see him aging like that, have aged extremely well and continue to hold their velocity and pitch at an extremely high level. Obviously, Jacob deGrom, who when you watch Wheeler,

you see the similarities in their windup, their delivery. You could tell they grew up learning to pitch together in the Mets system. You know, The slider, I mean, it's all very similar there. He has not held up. Now, that might just be his body. It might not have to do with his velocity, but it's hit or miss. I mean, for every Roger Clemens and Nolan Ryan, you get a guy whose arm just goes and it's like he's not the same guy at age 37, 38. So the Phillies will be taking that risk on. The other option, so 4-1-80 is the first thought I have to tack on four more years at 45 per year. The next thought I have is to give

them a big round number, get them to an area a lot of pitchers never get to, and that would be 5-200. It would lower the AAV by 5 million per year for the Phillies, and that matters to them. It's the way they do their contracts. But it would keep them here for an extra year, age 39 season, at $40 million. So you'd be taking on, or the Phillies would be taking on, incredible risks towards the end, an extra year there. But that feels like the ballpark here. I don't think he's going to take, and I don't think he should, $33 per year on an average when the best

pitchers are getting 43 and just wait till the next big one signs, you know, next offseason or whatever. You know, the next time we have one of these big ones coming up, they're going to surpass Scherzer. It's how this works. And if he was younger, like the Dodgers did with Yamamoto, you can make the case, all right, let's spread this thing out. He's not younger. He's going to be in his age 34 season. So I think that is certainly all part of all this. 4-180-5200, the two numbers I have in my head right now for Zach Wheeler. And one thing I will caution the Phillies on, I know they got away with it last year and they also got away with it with JT Real Muto. I would not let this thing get to next year's free agency You have Wheeler already talking about Using the word or acknowledging the word's market value

Aaron Nola seemed like he just wanted to come back here He wanted to see free agency, see what it was like But I don't think he ever wanted to leave I don't think Wheeler wants to leave But I also believe Wheeler and his agent want market value And want to be respected for the pitcher he is I wouldn't let this thing get a free agency next year Not because I think the Phillies wouldn't be able to handle it,

but because we're talking about next year's free agency. The Dodgers are pot committed, and they have an advantage with Otani's contract and the way he structured it. So if they don't win it this year, and let's say, you know, they still feel like, hey, we need one more arm. Boy, you know, what's stopping them from saying 4200 and doing a short-term average annual, blow it out of the water 50 per year? It wouldn't surprise me.

They're already to a level no team's ever been. You have them. Zach Wheeler's from the Atlanta area. We know the Braves this year tried to steal Nola. And I look at their rotation. Max Freed's a free agent. Chris Sale is a wild card. Okay.

They may, and Charlie Morton's old. They may be in a situation next offseason where they're desperate to add something reliable to pair with Spencer Strider at the top of that rotation. And I could just imagine they would love to make that Zach Wheeler and bring him home to finish his career. The New York Yankees feel like they're in a desperation spot right now, just training a bunch for one year of Juan Soto. If it works, maybe they want to keep it going. If it doesn't work, it's like, what are we going to do if we lose Soto in free agency?

Maybe they pivot to Zach Wheeler. They were interested in him in trades years ago before the Mets moved on and let him go into free agency. And then the last one I'll throw out there, just a team name or two more team names that probably will be in it. The Chicago Cubs, when you pay $40 million to a manager, you're in to win. And they have a lot of young guys, so they're going to have payroll flexibility to put around them. Wheeler could headline that rotation. And I would not rule out the Mets.

I know that Wheeler had a lot of bad blood after he left, and it was back and forth, and it was really, they disrespected him, but that was a different owner. It was a different general manager. It feels like a different organization. Now, Steve Cohen, they've kind of pivoted and looked at 2025 as their year to jump back into contention. This feels like a pause year for the Mets, 2024. I mean, it wouldn't shock me if Cohen tries to make things right with a guy the Mets probably should have never let get away in the first place. What a big check. So I would not let this get to free agency next year. I think there's really big lurking contenders to try to steal this guy.

Wheeler's an incredible pitcher. He's one of my favorites to watch. He's won me over so much, as all of us, for the performance, the steadiness steadiness the dominance how he pitched in october i want to see him here for years to come 4 180 or 5 200 those are the numbers in my head what i think it would cost right now to get zach wheeler signed up and a philly for a long time appreciate everyone listening subscribing following wip daily have a good one we'll talk soon