High Hopes: A Phillies Podcast - Mound Visit Ep. 4: Who's the Next Phillie to Go Into the Hall of Fame as a Phillie w/Jay Jaffe

Episode Date: January 28, 2019

On this episode of Mound Visit with Tim Kelly, Tim is joined by Jay Jaffe of Fangraphs and "The Cooperstown Casebook" to talk about who's going to be the next Phillie to go into the Hall of Fame, as a Phillie.  See omnystudio.com/policies/listener for privacy information. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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so your business insurance should be too. Contact a licensed TD Insurance advisor to learn more. This is the High Hopes Podcast. High Hopes! It's a bunch of baseball nerds. Well, without the computers talking about the Philadelphia Phillies on radio.com and sports radio 94 WIP. It is everyone's favorite time of the year. I'm Tim Kelly. This is episode five of mound visit here on sports radio 94 WIP in all seriousness,

unless you have an NFL team that's still alive, late January isn't the greatest time on the sports calendar. But we do look forward every year to the Hall of Fame announcement, which comes right around this time every single year. And I was listening to the afternoon show the other day with John Marks and Rob Ellis, and John joked that the easiest day of the sports year to host a sports talk show is the day after the Hall of Fame class is announced because you can essentially throw out Pete Rose, Barry Bonds,

and Roger Clemens and the show does itself. We're not going to have either of those debates today. However, Jay Jaffe, who currently writes for Fangraphs and is the author of Cooperstown Casebook, is going to join us. Roy Halladay was elected to the Hall of Fame in the 2019 class, making this the second consecutive year that a Phillies Wall of Famer was elected to the Hall of Fame. However, like Jim told me, Halladay won't go in as a Philly, so it got me to thinking, who is the next person that's going to go into the Hall of Fame as a Philly?

It could come next year, but it might take decades and that leaves quite a bit of a gray area. So I got the chance to pick the brain of Jay Jaffe, who I believe is the preeminent Hall of Fame mind. Let's take a listen to that. We're thrilled to have Jay Jaffe join Mound Visit here on Sports Radio 94 WIP. You can purchase his excellent book, Cooperstown Casebook, at cooperstowncasebook.com. It's also available on Amazon and Barnes & Noble. Jay's day-to-day content can be found on Fangraphs, which of course is a tremendous baseball resource. Jay, the Halladay family made a surprise announcement that Roy will not go into the Hall of Fame

as a Blue Jay or a Philly today. Still, 2019 will mark the second consecutive year if you count Jim Tomey a year ago that a beloved Philly is elected to the Hall of Fame but doesn't go in as a Philly. So, it begs the question about who will be

the next person to go in as a Philly. Curt Schilling would seem to be the immediate choice. He jumped to 60.9% in 2019. He's on pace or tops Halladay and Mike Mussina in many key metrics. I'm hesitant to say this given that 2020 is an election year, but with Derek Jeter the only obvious name on the ballot next year is 2020, the year Curt Schilling finally gets in. I mean, I think he's within striking distance for this coming year, but as we both know,

he's a guy who has the capacity to sabotage his own chances, and he's already done that. his own chances, and he's already done that. I think he very well could have beaten Mike Messina to 75% had he not set himself back with his inflammatory comments a few years ago. He's been on the ballot a year longer. Their credentials, I think, are more or less equivalent. He's got, I think, the greater perception of the postseason work, maybe not quite the longevity that Messina has overall, but both of them outstanding bodies of work.

And, you know, I think he's close. It's just a matter of the things that are in his control, whether he can, you know, bite his tongue or whatever. But I would question the notion as to whether he's going in as a Philly because I do think that the two World Series with the Red Sox and the historic nature of those are something that both he and the Hall might consider. I mean, he was drafted by the Phillies as well, I mean, by the Red Sox as well. And so I can see an argument there,

and I know it will come down to what he and the Hall want. Well, and that's what I was going to ask next. He spent the largest chunk of his career with the Phillies, but you could certainly make a case for Boston to help win two World Series titles in four years after 0-86. And I think you can make a case for Arizona, though. 2001 and 2002. He was a World Series co-MVP there and had two huge seasons with them

and runner-up in the Cy Young voting both years. So he might be one of those guys that goes in with a generic cap. We'll see what he wants. So Bobby Abreu will also become eligible for the first time in 2020. He's kind of, in my mind, the exact reason why you can't just look at names on a ballot and vote based on gut instinct. He does top the average Hall of Fame right fielder in B-War, War 7, and Jaws. But while I'm normally in agreement with someone like Brian Kenney,

I think Abreu, especially given that he was a poor fielder, I still think he falls short. Am I wrong? Well, actually, I don't think he's above the average in any of those. He's close on seven-year peak, but he's below the bar in Jaws. I'm looking at his page right now. I think he's going to be hard-pressed to stick around on the ballot. I love Bobby Abreu as a player, a great combination of speed and power.

I think the perception of his fielding is kind of overstated. By the end of his career, he was a terrible fielder. Believe me, I saw a lot of it here in New York. But in his Philly days, he actually was generally an above-average fielder. It was really only towards the end of his career that he got pretty wall-shy and didn't help himself. But I think really the fact that he's only made two all-star teams, only won one gold glove,

is going to make it really hard for him to stand out in front of the voters. I mean, just at right field alone, you're competing with Larry Walker next year, who's getting close to being his final year on the ballot and just had two huge surges that put him within striking distance. You've got Sosa and Sheffield, who most of the voters are ignoring, but are still candidates that you look at their resumes and you look at Abreu's resume in terms of all-star appearances and MVP impact and things like that. And it's tough to see how Abreu is going to be the obvious vote

in front of those guys. Yeah, let me correct myself. He topped Vladimir Guerrero and Chuck Klein, two players. Chuck Klein obviously went in as a Philly, and then Vladimir Guerrero is the most recent right fielder. He tops them in B-War, War 7, and Jaws. So Cliff Lee will also become eligible in 2020. Between 2008 and 2013, he actually topped Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander,

CeCe Sabathia, Zach Greinke, and Clayton Kershaw on F-War. But for as great as his peak was, is there enough of an overall body for him to have a serious Hall of Fame case? No. overall body for him to have a serious Hall of Fame case? No, I think you could look at the way that Johan Santana and Roy Oswalt fell off the ballot without getting anywhere close to even 5% and staying on. I think Santana had, Young's Lee has won, Oswalt a similar number of innings. Actually, Lee has even fewer innings, 2,100. You're just not going to get the kind of attention from the voters that's necessary

when you've got the volume that we've got on this ballot here. I mean, Schilling and Clemens and even Andy Pettit, much longer careers. And the voters, I think, in general, still are more likely to reward longevity than they are a high peak. We saw that if Santana couldn't get anywhere, I don't see Cliff Lee getting anywhere. We're talking to Jay Jaffe, author of Cooperstown Casebook and the senior writer for Fangraphs. Jay, let me circle back to someone that's currently on the ballot. Scott Rowland was a seven-time All-Star, eight-time Gold Glove Award winner,

and tops the average Hall of Fame third baseman in B-War, Jaws, and War 7. With Edgar Martinez now in the Hall of Fame and Larry Walker in his final year, does Rowland have a chance to get some of that grassroots support that shoots him up the ballot behind him? Yeah, I think he's going to be one of the focal points of the stat heads who are trying to take the case to the broader electorate. I certainly feel like he's somebody that I'm going to spend a lot of time trying to convince people on. And we saw him pick up seven points this year. That's a solid gain, considering how far down the ballot he was.

You know, it's going to take some time, though, but I'm optimistic. I think the numbers really do stand out. The very strong fielding, very solid offense. Like you said, I have him 10th in Jaws all time, and more or less equivalent in value to Edgar Martinez, who just got in. So I think that there's a lot to talk about with him. Rowland, of course, was a teammate of a young Jimmy Rollins in Philadelphia.

A lot of folks around here try to compare his case to Barry Larkin, and frankly I'm not sure they've looked too deeply into Larkin's career if they're doing that. But if Rollins, when Rollins becomes eligible, what do you think his odds are? Well, I just don't think he stacks up all that well. I mean, he's got good counting stats, you know, and he's got the MVP award.

But, you know, he was a very nice player, but the advanced stats don't really support him very strongly. I mean, you know, obviously he didn't have the kinds of negatives that Miguel Tejada had. You know, Tejada has all kinds of PED allegations attached to the name, but they had some similar career numbers. Both have 2,400 and something hits, well over 200 home runs. DeHatta fell off the ballot immediately. He's got stronger war and jaws numbers slightly than Rollins, and he just vanished without a trace. I don't see Rollins

as being a guy who's going to stick around the ballot, even though I know that he has his supporters. He's got four gold gloves, one, two, three, all-star appearances. That's not a lot. That's just not necessarily his fault that he was overlooked at times, but those perceptions tend to carry over, and it's tough to fight that, to work against that. If a guy didn't have a lot of all-star support, he's not going to get a lot of Hall of Fame support without extraordinary efforts and extraordinary numbers. And his numbers, I don't think, are extraordinary enough to really overcome

the hole he's in in terms of that initial attention. And finally, Rollins' longtime double play partner Chase Utley, he'll become eligible in 2024 having just retired. He's someone that if he hadn't gotten injured and if Placido Polanco hadn't blocked him early in his career would have been a slam dunk. He still has a pretty

excellent case, at least in terms of advanced metrics. Is his peak enough to put him over the top at some point? I sure hope so. I think that Chase Utley is a guy who should be an immediate Hall of Famer. I have him 11th in Jaws at the position, just over the line in terms of Jaws and well over the bar in terms of peak score.

The big problem for him is that he finished with 1,885 hits. The rule of 2,000 is what I call it, and that's the hard fact that no player with fewer than 2,000 hits in the post-1960 expansion era has been elected to the Hall of Fame yet, either by the writers or by the small committees. Guys like Dick Allen, Bobby Gritch, who I think is a very good comp for Utley, although Utley was a better base runner. Our two, Lance Berkman, we saw fall off the ballot. Andrew Jones kind of stuck in down-ballot limbo. If you don't get to 2,000 hits, it's tough to get the voters to take you seriously.

I think Utley, because he was such an advanced stat darling, and because he was also part of, you know, championship team and a penalty team, he'll get a longer look. He'll get, I think, you know, I think he lost out to Rollins and to Ryan Howard in terms of the credit, the MVP awards, you know, when they were having big years and he was having big years, he was very quietly more valuable than both of them in their MVP seasons. But maybe he'll recapture some of that when he becomes eligible. I know that there's a sizable block of people who are instantly ready to support him when he becomes a candidate.

of people who are instantly ready to support him when he becomes a candidate. And I think that the electorate, by the time he's eligible, will be changing at least somewhat. So I'm optimistic he'll stick around and be somebody that gets discussed. I don't know that he's going to fly into the Hall of Fame anytime soon, but I hope he's somebody we can debate for a while, and I hope that he's helped when somebody like Scott Rowland advances up the rankings. So given what you've said and that you think it's very questionable, even if Curt Schilling gets in, that he would go in as a Philly,

where does the next Philly from the Hall of Fame come? Because I'm looking at this realistically, and while I can say, yeah, I think Scott Rowland and Chase Ulley are Hall of Famers, I don't know if they'll ever get there. There is, and I say this half-tongue-in-cheek, but not really. There's a part of me that wonders if Bryce Harper or Manny Machado won't be the next Phillies Hall of Famer. You know, and look, there are no guarantees for any of these guys. You're right.

I would say, you know, long odds on most of the guys we talked about in terms of getting into the Hall of Fame, and even the ones that are maybe more likely to get into the Hall of Fame, longer odds that they're necessarily going to be a Philly, or at least less than 50%. So really, right now, if you're looking at what we can ascertain, it's probably Utley or Bust, Now, if you're looking at what we can ascertain, it's probably Utley or Bust, because he's the only guaranteed Philly cap among the guys we've listed here,

with the exception of O'Brie, who I don't think is going to do that well. And then, yeah, maybe if the Phillies sign one of those guys and their careers unfold in ways that we envision, maybe that's possible. But you're talking 15 years down the road, and that's very, very tough to project. Jay Jaffe, author of Cooperstown Casebook and senior writer for Fangraphs. Jay, thank you for joining us. Special thanks to Jay Jaffe. He really is a tremendous baseball mind.

So I believe that Mike Nusina was deservedly elected to the Hall of Fame this week, but to me it only underscores how deserving Curt Schilling is of being elected to Cooperstown. I know he often makes it difficult for anyone to really dial in the Curt Schilling belongs in the Kurt Schilling belongs in the Hall of Fame case, but he does. He tops the average Hall of Fame starting pitcher in B-War and Jaws while falling just short in War 7. He may be the single greatest postseason pitcher in baseball history. Interestingly, I agree with Jay that there's a very real chance Schilling doesn't go into the Hall of Fame as a Philly,

and maybe he'll do what Roy Halladay's doing and what Greg Maddux did and not go in with the team at all. But I actually think of him as an Arizona Diamondback. He won the 2001 World Series co-MVP, and that Yankees and Diamondbacks series, beyond the fact that it was a great series, the impact that it had on the United States after 9-11, it's one of the most classic World Series to me. That and 2011 are the best in my lifetime, I believe. So, Curt Schilling won that. He was the co-MVP with Randy Johnson, and he followed that up in 2002 by going 23-7 with a.323 ERA,.245 and a 9.3 F4. In any normal year, he would have won the Cy Young Award. He fell just short because Randy Johnson, his Hall of Fame teammate, he was just a little bit better. I have a few thoughts about Cliff Lee. I don't think he's a Hall of Famer and I'm not sure

he won't fall off the ballot entirely next year. It wouldn't surprise me if he hangs on a little bit, but I don't see him gaining any traction, and that's probably the correct thing. However, at his peak, he was one of the most dominant pitchers that I've ever seen, and the pace that he worked at made him such a pleasure to watch. Perhaps someday I'll work on this project, but I've often liked the idea of a peak Hall of Fame one where you say this guy didn't have enough of a body

of work to be a Hall of Famer but at the height of his powers he was that good Lee would certainly be in so too would Andrew Jones who every year I wrestle with myself on this case because he was an elite hitter he had over 50 home runs once, and he was the best outfielder that I've ever seen in my life.

And that includes Jim Edmonds, and you go down the list of a ton of tremendous great outfielders. His reads on the ball, I've never seen anything like it. And it's unfortunate that he essentially ate his way out of a few more productive seasons because it really wouldn't have taken much more if he had one or two good seasons in Los Angeles or regrouped after Los Angeles which was a relative disaster and and put it back together for a couple more years he would have been a hall of famer instead I think he's going to be someone that hangs around for quite a bit and people like myself and those who actually have a vote for the BBWA they'll

struggle with the case every year because they know he's someone that should have been a Hall of Famer and instead he's probably going to be stuck in that in-between phase where he gets 40 or 50 percent but is never elected to the Hall of Fame. In any event, next year should be a fun year on the ballot. Derek Jeter will get in and I believe he deserves to do so unanimously. I know that people would be a little upset if you go all this time without any unanimous Hall of Famers and then Derek Jeter goes in as a unanimous Hall of Famer the year after his teammate Mariano Rivera goes in as a unanimous Hall of Famer the year after his teammate Mariano Rivera goes in as a unanimous Hall of Famer. I get that to a degree, but it's time to correct the wrongs.

Derek Jeter, for all his flaws in the field, people sleep on just how good of an offensive player Derek Jeter was. And he was one of the more clutch players of all time. And that isn't simply because he was on the right team. He himself was that good. So Derek Jeter Jeter to me is someone that should get in after that though the 2020 Hall of Fame ballot is really wide open Larry Walker has his work cut out but Hall of Fame voters are finally realizing how compelling his case is and I'm happy to see that because it bodes well for him and it bodes well for Todd Helton, another Colorado Rocky who was just in his first year on the ballot, and I think he's a Hall of Famer.

And realistically, Larry Walker was a star in Montreal, so he's a star outside of Coors Field. But this idea that players that played in Coors Field that have drastic splits outside of it can't be Hall of Famers, I just don't agree with it. It's a major league stadium. Is there an advantage to having played in Coors Field offensively? Sure, but it's a major league stadium. So what are we going to do? Say that productive players that played in Colorado can't

be Hall of Famers because that's where they played their career? That's silly to me because I look at someone like Nolan Arenado right now and Nolan Arenado is only 27 years old, I believe. So there's still quite a bit of work to do. But is he on that pace? Absolutely. He has the same thing, though, when you talk about home road splits where his home splits, he's a Hall of Famer. His road splits, he's a very nice player, but he's not that good. But to me, Coors Field is an MLB-sanctioned ballpark,

and if you're going to have it be there, you can't deny the production that takes place. If the Rockies won won a World Series we wouldn't put an asterisk next to it if they did that so I don't grasp why we put an asterisk next to the production of the individuals that make up some of those teams back to 2020 though the Phillies connections are going to be strong you have Schilling you have Scott Rowland and I try not to be a one-issue guy, but I just really believe in Scott Rowland's case. And beyond believing in his case, I believe it's wrong that there are these people that we put on the ballot, and Larry Walker was once one of them, Edgar Martinez was once one of them,

I think Billy Wagner, another former Philly, is one of them that we look at and say, no, they're not a Hall of Famer, without actually doing the examination. If you do a deep dive, you include counting numbers, Sabre metrics, whatever, and you come to the conclusion that Scott Rowland is not a Hall of Famer, good for you. But I think I bring this idea up to some people and it's like a foreign concept to them. And I'm like, this is one of the greatest fielders of all time in his position. And I'm, it's silly to me that we fielders of all time in his position and I'm... It's silly to me that we're in a world where people say, oh, well, fielding doesn't get you into Hall of Fame.

Well, when you're one of the greatest fielders of all time, absolutely, it should add to your case. And Scott Rowland was an elite offensive player at his peak and he shouldn't be penalized because his peak came at the height of the steroid era. So I hope that Scott Rowland at the very least gets a legitimate look and I hope the same goes for Bobby Abreu. I don't anticipate in my vote for the Internet Baseball Writers Association

of America voting for Bobby Abreu, but I do it and I already have to a degree, but I do envision giving Bobby Abreu a deep look because if you want to be a Hall of Fame voter, you need to treat it like a 400 level college class i've said this numerous times now if you want that responsibility and

hell for the for both the bbwa and the ibwa you pay some obviously much more for the bbwa you pay dues you pay all these things if If you really want this honor, I don't understand why you wouldn't take a deep dive into each candidate. It's so wrong to me to just look at the candidates on the list and go off of instinct and say, is this guy a Hall of Famer or not, and be done with that.

Because for as much as all of us say, oh, you know, I follow the league as a whole, not just the individual team that I cover or write about, you know, I follow the league as a whole, not just the individual team that I cover or write about. You can't watch every game every single night. Memories fade. There's players that are great players on bad teams for their entire career. So to just look at names on a list without doing any further examination,

it's wrong. And I hope that for that reason, Scott Rowland, Bobby Abreu, Todd Helton, I hope they get a further examination and I think that this is one of the areas where the internet has been such a great thing because I don't think Edgar Martinez is in the Hall of Fame without the internet. There's lots of

writers that cover teams for what we would consider traditional outlets whether that's newsprint, online, whatever traditional outlets that scoff at blogsprint, online, whatever, traditional outlets that scoff at blogs, that scoff at the thought of the internet. But in a lot of senses, the internet has framed the discussion on the Hall of Fame. It helped to make people that write for these more traditional outlets that have Hall of

Fame votes, it helped them to realize we need to give Edgar Martinez a more serious look. We need to give Larry Walker a more serious look. Their numbers haven't changed in the last 10 years. What's changed is the discussion around them and the Overton window, however you want to look at it, has shifted to the point where not only are these guys being considered, but we've changed how we want to look at and examine individual Hall of Fame cases. There's new statistics. Jay Jaffe, who we had on, invented

Jaws, which has become a super important statistic in evaluating somebody's Hall of Fame case. So for all the scoffing that's done at bloggers and at those that write primarily for an internet-based outlet, they frame the discussion on the Hall of Fame. So I went off on a few side tangents here at the end, but Schilling, Scott Rowland, Bobby Abreu, Cliff Lee, Raul Banez, Billy Wagner, former Phillies that will be on the Hall of Fame ballot next year. If anything, it's a testament to how many very good to great players the Phillies employed between 2001 and 2011.

Thank you guys for tuning in. You can follow me at TimKellysports on Twitter. Read my work on 94WIP.com and PhilliesNation.com. And give the show a follow on Twitter at HighHopesPod. All-star closer, Kenley Jansen, we have a question. What's the best podcast of all time? Baseball isn't boring, baby. I'm Rob Bradford, and every single day I'm sitting down with the biggest names

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