High Hopes: A Phillies Podcast - Pivetta Breakout Season is on Hold and Much Needed Bounceback Series

Episode Date: April 11, 2019

Pivetta Breakout Season isn't going well and James Seltzer and Jack Fritz are here to talk about it. The guys react to a frustrating series against the Nats and more! See omnystudio.com/policies/list...ener for privacy information. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:40 It's a bunch of baseball nerds, well, without the computers, talking about the Philadelphia Phillies on Radio.com and Sports Radio 94 WIP. Yo, it is another edition of the High Hopes Podcast. Jack, wasn't a great night last night. Not great, man. Not great. I never even liked Nick the Better. All right, let's just get right into it.
Starting point is 00:01:04 I never thought he was going to break out. How do you mention Sven? Dude, all right. So I needed 16 people last night. 16 people? Dude, I just couldn't take it anymore. I couldn't take it anymore. And I don't know.
Starting point is 00:01:16 I just think that people, like they hear Breakout Pavetta and- And they think of Jack Fritz now. Which is fine. That's probably a good thing whatever but like and here's the thing is that it was like I said all along that he needed a third pitch if he wanted to break out of course no one hears that and of course sometimes I guess I didn't I guess I forgot that you can't ever have fun on Twitter so like Twitter's not fun so so like fun place to be so when I put out stuff about like how,
Starting point is 00:01:45 like he's going to strike out 200 guys and top 10, it's like, no one can kind of take that as, you know, kind of nuanced and hyperbole. Um, and it turns into like, you don't know anything about it.
Starting point is 00:01:57 You said he was better than Aaron Noley. He's the ace of the staff. Yeah. And I'm like, Oh my God. Like, can we just relax for five seconds? If you see,
Starting point is 00:02:04 this is why I like the highest people. And that's and this is why I love the high-o's people, because the people that listen to this podcast understand that from day one, the only reason that a Nick Pavetta breakout was going to happen was if he developed a freaking third pitch. And guess what he didn't do? What was he doing this offseason? Dude, what? What was Pavetta doing?
Starting point is 00:02:20 Was he hanging out, chilling? Him and Ben Simmons, chilling in Lmons chilling in la together not working on their game not shooting yeah throwing yeah oh my like like honestly i was i was sitting here obviously producing the game yelling at the no one just sent myself what did you do this offseason like all he had to do was work on a third pitch, and the upside is there of a top three rotation arm. Like, that is what he can be. And the fact that he didn't do that is beyond frustrating. Because there is a—like, if you don't think Nick Pavetta doesn't have talent, then you just don't know what you're watching.
Starting point is 00:02:58 And for him not to understand that and understand that he has to take the next leap if this team wants to uh take the next step forward and him just to not do it and it's it boggles my mind you have all this talent you had one job like one job was to learn a change up or a splitter or some semblance of a cutter or your crappy slider like i just do not understand how you can go into the offseason, know you need to do this, and then not do it. It's just... It's insane. It's insane.
Starting point is 00:03:35 If there's one thing I've learned from this whole Pavetta process is that never again will I trust a two-pitch pitcher because guess what two-pitch pitchers do? Pitch in the bullpen. They get ripped. Yeah, or they pitch in the bullpen. Yes. Yeah. I mean, if you want to be honest, can I be honest with that? Pavetta's the best closer on this team. If we're being honest. I mean, he'd be a great bullpen arm. Listen,
Starting point is 00:04:01 you know me. I love Archie Bradley types. Nick Pavetta would be. That's like your go-to thing. It's all I care about. Archie, Bradley, Josh, Hayter, these types of guys. Yeah. It's just up your alley. It would be Pavetta. It's like your favorite thing.
Starting point is 00:04:13 Ryan Presley. Just give me. You see, he had a four-hour day last night. I know. I saw. Struck out three guys. Yeah. But like, here's the thing that is even more frustrating.
Starting point is 00:04:23 It's like, you know, people act like I was the only one that thought Pavetta was going to break out. Which, like, listen, it's not a problem if I'm wrong. It's a problem that the Phillies were wrong about Pavetta. Like, that's more of an issue. It's a really good point. It's more of an issue than me being wrong. All we heard, and granted, we always say, certainly on this podcast, you know, take spring training results with multiple grains of salt. Yeah, but I can't do it.
Starting point is 00:04:47 I just love spring training results. And regardless, whether you can or can't, the Philadelphia Phillies, every person who was on WIP, every person who talked, Larry Ball came on the Midday Show and said Nick Pavetta is the star of spring training. Like, everyone there believed Nick Pavetta was taking this step forward. So it's a really great point. And did you hear Gabe last night after the game?
Starting point is 00:05:08 He was really critical. He was pissed. Like, legit critical. Like, called Pavetta out, essentially. And he should. Not finishing his pitches. No, like, no conviction. No conviction.
Starting point is 00:05:17 With his pitches. Like, I... Which is right. So, one of my... The reason that... Nah, I... Alright, I know I talk about myself a lot when it comes to my pitching. No.
Starting point is 00:05:27 But the reason... Well, it's funny because I do have a Jack Fritz take for later. Okay. Yes. But the reason that I went from an average pitcher in high school to an actually really serious prospect was that I was told one thing, and that was to throw
Starting point is 00:05:45 through the target. And what Pavetta doesn't do is instead of, instead of throwing through the target, he throws to the target. And the difference is when you're thinking in your mind to throw through the target, you finish everything better. And your only thought process is to basically the way I was taught was like,
Starting point is 00:06:01 you want to knock down the catcher, try to knock down the catcher because that's the only way you can be aggressive and be in the right mindset. And every time I watch him right now, it's like he's just gliding the ball into there. And the other thing is it's 93. Like it's 93. It's 94. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:06:17 Where's the 97, 98, 99? And I understand maybe the guns were a little, oh my gosh, I just bit my tongue. Whoa. I wish you could see his face right now this is Jack really just in the moment oh man anyway he's so upset about the fact he's hurting himself I mean just my tongue that's an important part of what you do in life um but so uh crap where where was I going with that oh so even if the spring training guns were a little bit hot the the fastball had serious jump to it had serious giddy up to it even if it wasn't 99
Starting point is 00:06:50 whatever it still looked like 97 at least like the the ball was legit jumping we saw it last year he was hitting those numbers and now it's it's 93 it's 94 and there's no like the curveballs like not even competitive pitches at this point. It's mind boggling. So, all right. So let's take the next step with it. Where are you at with, like, forget breakout Pavetta, all that stuff.
Starting point is 00:07:13 We've all, as you check your time to make sure it's not bleeding, it is not bleeding. It's not bleeding. We're good. We're good. We did it. Okay. The Jack Fritz bloody tongue game.
Starting point is 00:07:22 The bloody tongue podcast. Yes. All right. So let's take the next step with it. Forget breakout Pavetta. All that stuff. I've tried to. I can't.
Starting point is 00:07:30 I know. You never will. Hey, you know what? No one will ever let you forget it. Yeah. The 16 people muted, you're going to have to mute more people. So what do we do now? Where are we at from now?
Starting point is 00:07:39 Forgetting spring training excitement. Forgetting the if he learns a third pitch and all that. Where are you at with Pavetta from today moving forward? Is he someone who will figure it out this season? Is he someone who can be a 3-4 type guy for you this year? Where are you at with Pavetta, and what do you expect to see moving forward? It's tough because you want to throw him back out there and see if he can figure it out.
Starting point is 00:08:03 And the way he talked after the game, he was pretty blunt about how bad he was and how this game can humble you. I mean, baseball is probably – I would say golf is more humbling. I agree. Golf is something where it's like unless you know how to do it, it's infuriating. Yeah, so I mean, he seemed really humbled last night, and he said he's going to go out and be better. But, like, dude, his next couple starts, he's got the Mets
Starting point is 00:08:24 and then the Rockies on the road, which is exactly the best way to start your season. Going to Colorado, yay. Yeah, I don't think sending him down is going to really do much. Maybe it gets him going a little bit. Maybe just get him some starts. Maybe he does have dead legs right now, and going down would help him kind of get his legs back underneath him.
Starting point is 00:08:42 So there's real concern here. Of course there's real concern. I know, but look, we talk a lot about not overreacting to very small sample sizes. Three starts is a pretty small sample size. So I'm just trying to gauge it. There's real concern. Well, of course. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:08:55 Listen, he's not striking anyone out. He's walking people. And he's throwing 93 miles an hour. Like, I think those are three. Real red flags. Real red flags. These aren't just minor concerns. He's not pitching miles an hour. Like, I think those are three... Real red flags. Real red flags. Like, not... These aren't just, like, minor concerns.
Starting point is 00:09:07 He's not pitching well at all. He's not fooling anyone. And he's not throwing as hard as he usually does. So, I think there's a reason for concern there. It's just like... It's a sad day for the high-ups podcast. Well, it's fine. It's just...
Starting point is 00:09:21 We'll get through it. Adam Morgan's been great. That was the whole thing all along. That's all really mattered. Tough times don't last. Tough people do. And me and Nick... it's just it's it's we'll get through it's been great that was the whole thing all along that's all really mattered tough times don't last tough people do and uh me and nick well i don't know if he's actually tough i don't know yeah i know he might not be yeah he might be between the ears part is not great yeah for better yeah but maybe in the bullpen like a mental giant out there maybe as a closer sure maybe as a closer he'd get there but here's the thing is that they don't really
Starting point is 00:09:43 have anyone else that you can come up and be like, oh, I trust that guy to get the job done. Like, everyone, I would like Jared Eikhoff to be good. But, like, last night he allowed three runs in AAA. And it's not like we trust Jared Eikhoff to come up here and be well. Nor should we. No. And then you have Vince Velasquez, which you don't know what you're going to get.
Starting point is 00:10:02 Like, I tell you what. The people that think he pitched amazing. It's unbelievable. People acting like it was five innings of just pure genius pitching or whatever. Did I watch the same game as you? He threw 80 pitches. He was fine. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:10:15 He allowed two runs, but I feel like- Some hard hit balls in there. Some. He had five balls in play that were over 100 miles an hour. Yeah, that's not good. If you want it positive, you look at it and you say he didn't walk anybody. That is a real positive takeaway for Vince Velasquez. Didn't strike him an out either, which is not great.
Starting point is 00:10:33 Did he have three strikeouts or something like that? That's not great, but I'm saying the point is I'm with you. Velasquez was not great, but it was fun. I think his start on Monday was more results of a process. The process to get the results were not. That's fair. That's fair. And look, five innings.
Starting point is 00:10:53 We are where we're at with Velasquez. Five innings isn't going to change it one way or the other. Right. They do need to start pitching deeper into games. I mean, no doubt about it. Desperately, especially with this bullpen. It's been taxed, and it hasn't been great. No, it hasn't been great.
Starting point is 00:11:04 And they don't really have a great long man. I. And they don't really have a great long man. I mean, they don't really have a... Once it got in the cause, he was supposed to be my long man? Yeah, so... Man. Anyway, we'll get into the nitty gritty. It is, it is. I didn't think Gabe had a great night, but whatever.
Starting point is 00:11:17 Well, yeah, he had a great series. Baseball, sometimes you have to concede. I get it. Baseball is a grind. You're down 9-0 in the sixth inning. I understand that you are, in a sense, conceding that game and saying, all right, I'm going to put Andrew Knapp in. I'm going to...
Starting point is 00:11:30 Andrew Knapp. It's Knapp, right? That's where this is coming from. Nick Williams. Well, Andrew Knapp, you know where I'm at. I never want to see that guy play baseball for my team ever again. Trevor Rosenthal was his first out. Dude, the first person in the history of baseball to take until their fifth appearance to get their first out of the season.
Starting point is 00:11:47 Who was that first out? Andrew freaking Knapp strikes out. What a freaking shock that was. But that's neither here nor there. It's more that you let Nicasio hit in that spot, which is fine. I get it. You're saying, we're conceding this game. I need innings.
Starting point is 00:12:02 And then you pull in the next inning. What are you doing? I didn't think it was Gabe's best night. And I think Gabe's been great this year. But I thought, you're conceding this game, I need innings, and then you pull in the next inning. What are you doing? I didn't think it was Gabe's best night. And I think Gabe's been great this year, but I thought, you're right, the whole series was not Gabe's best series. No. And they went into the NOLA start and they had this plan, and I understand NOLA should have been able to get through seven.
Starting point is 00:12:20 I think that's more on NOLA than it is on Gabe. I agree, especially he had pitched well enough through those first six. And I just don't think, I don't like the idea of having a preset. Obviously you want a game plan hanging into a baseball game, but things go wrong in baseball games. Absolutely. I don't like that he had this idea of like,
Starting point is 00:12:37 we need Nola to get seven, which you're not sure he can do. I mean, he would like to. You think he can. He most likely will. But having the set plan of Nola seven, like Neres for two. I mean, you would like to. You think he can. He most likely will. But having the set plan of Nola 7, like Neris for 2. I don't know. Baseball games are crazy. And look, it blew up in his face. He couldn't get Nola through 7.
Starting point is 00:12:54 When he does go to Neris, Neris has a 30-pitch inning. You can't put him back out there for another inning. He put Sir Anthony in for the 7th, 44 pitches. And then Neris. You know I had an issue with that, too. You and I argued about that through text. Stupid double switch. Give me another inning of Sir Anthony. In that spot, and you know I had an issue with that, too. You and I argued about that through text. Stupid double switch. Give me another inning of Sir Anthony in that spot. I thought the extra inning of Sir Anthony was more valuable to me than at bat.
Starting point is 00:13:12 Neither here nor there. I didn't think Gabe had a great series, but yesterday, that was just a rough. That was horrible. I mean, it was very. I watched every second of that game. Well, I mean, same. I know, but like that... Although I will say, when they're getting blown out,
Starting point is 00:13:28 Scott and L.A. are at their best. Oh, I'm sure. They're just having fun, doing their thing. I should have turned it on. I was watching the game. It was amazing. The 7th through 9th, they start talking about, so there's this report that in Boston University,
Starting point is 00:13:39 the students did some report on the umpires, balls and strikes last year. did some report on the umpires, balls and strikes last year. Home plate umpires got 34,578 or something like that. Balls and strike calls wrong last year. I mean, and in honor of Stu Sherwater last night, that was one of the worst home plate umpire performances I remember in recent times. He was horrendous.
Starting point is 00:14:02 There's been a lot of umpire problems this year. Zero consistency from inning to inning. I mean, when reese hoskins when you can see him turn around and you could see on the television copy his mouth go bro that wasn't even close like he reese is not the type of guy who's going to turn around like get annoyed with an umpire in most situations yeah he was pissed because it wasn't close yeah if reese hoskins thinks it's a ball it's probably it's probably a ball especially if he's like ball. Especially if he's like, that's not close. I mean, anyway. Yeah. But it was funny because then L.A. was like, that's not a shock to this reporter.
Starting point is 00:14:31 And they started talking about how L.A. had some kind of gas problem at his house. And it sounds like the bomb is going off. And everyone freaks out. And it's been going on for months or whatever. See, that's good content right there. Yeah, it's good for when they're getting blown out. Because on TV, it was literally like torture. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:14:48 The sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth innings was like torture. I felt like I was Chinese water torture. I'm sitting there just having to deal with it. Yeah, well, it was one of those nights. And it happens. And it was a bad... It's a bummer because it's one of those ones where the run differential really gets slammed and you're like, damn it.
Starting point is 00:15:05 Makes us look the worst than we are. The reason I was even more frustrated, not only seeing my offense get shut down by Jeremy Hellickson, which is— What? Why? How? How does this happen, Jack? I don't know, man. We know Jeremy Hellickson. He didn't even look good. I know.
Starting point is 00:15:18 They're like, oh, he's really dotting the outside of the plate or he's not leaving anything over the middle of the plate. I was like, I could hit that stuff. That looks like meatballs. Yeah, Hellickson. Losing to Jeremy Hellickson is a frustrating experience. A kick in the junk. That's what I call it. It was crazy. And you have that.
Starting point is 00:15:34 And the way they come out after blowing the 6-1 game and it looked like that. It was mildly disappointing. Jack, actually, that's really a good point. That's probably my biggest issue with the whole thing was that you have a game where you're up 6-5, bottom of the nine, two outs, two strikes. You end up losing that game. That is a gut-wrenching loss to come back the next night in your ballpark and get boat raced.
Starting point is 00:15:56 Yeah. It's a bad look. I mean, it was 24 unanswered runs by the Nats until the last inning. 24 unanswered runs. It's like, what is this, a basketball game? A freaking basketball game? What? Even then you rarely see 24 unanswered. Yeah, it's a baseball game. It's crazy.
Starting point is 00:16:12 Yeah, and boy, I tell you what. Are we sure Jose Alvarez is better than Luis Garcia? Oh, we're not. Are we sure? We're not sure Jose Alvarez should be on this team right now. I mean, can we get James Fossas back up here or anyone else? Better idea. Put Aaron Altair in the bullpen.
Starting point is 00:16:29 He's better than Jose Alvarez. Well, Jose Alvarez, I mean, I thought he was going to. Were his numbers in LA, like, is that real? Like, were his numbers fake? Did you make it up? No one watches Angels games, so you can't confirm. They might have just made it up. They might have.
Starting point is 00:16:43 He had like a three ERA, like four straight years. He's not good. Aaron Altair was pretty good, though. I was shocked. I was impressed. I was always right about Aaron Altair. I was about to say, you knew it the whole time. That's what you were talking about.
Starting point is 00:16:54 90, pumping 90 in there. I had a little bit of a slur at one point there. I think if he worked on his mechanics, he could be something. Maybe. Have a second career. All right. He didn't finish well, but I thought he was okay. Okay. We'll get into the Marlins coming up in a little bit, but
Starting point is 00:17:07 let's get back to the staff. Let's look at the staff as a whole real quick. What are you more concerned about? The starting staff or the bullpen? That's a great question. The starting staff. I agree. Yeah. Because it's more important, ultimately. I mean, you need guys who are going to go out and give you innings. You need starting
Starting point is 00:17:23 pitching in this game. They don't have it right now And now there's more question marks than The Nola regression season I didn't expect that to happen Me either and look Again three starts I'm not overreacting But we're just reacting to what we're seeing Yes and also like look
Starting point is 00:17:38 The one thing with Nola that we didn't talk enough about Coming into the season is the 50 plus Inning bump he had last year We didn't even mention it and that's on us we should have mentioned that as a potential cause for concern yeah it's just so it's so hard it's so hard to do that like it's so hard to be like i don't know i think nolan might have a regression season yeah because he was freaking awesome he was amazing last year it was he's taken and every year he's been in the majors he's taken a step forward like he has incrementally gotten better and better and better yeah i mean every year you could pencil in or i I mean, every year you could pencil in,
Starting point is 00:18:05 or I mean, every start last year you could pencil in seven innings less than two runs or two runs or less. Two runs or less. And this year, it's just,
Starting point is 00:18:14 and let me, I don't think he was as bad as people are making it out to be in the national start. I don't either. It was just that one inning. He was pretty good otherwise. In the first,
Starting point is 00:18:21 Harper drops that fly ball that should have been caught. No run should have scored in the first. I agree with you. And the decision to leave him out. In the first, Harper drops that fly ball. That should have been caught. No run should have scored in the first. I agree with you. And the decision to leave him out there for the seventh, Gabe had to do that because of how the bullpen was set up. They didn't have anyone else left.
Starting point is 00:18:33 I mean, Robertson, Neshek, and Adam Morgan were all down. So he had to put Nola back out there. Imagine the reaction if they pulled Nola after 80 pitches in six innings. Oh, he would have gotten killed. He would have got crushed. Goes out there. Franco makes the error. He has one more defo struck out. They didn't call that, but
Starting point is 00:18:49 defo got out anyway. But still, that could have saved some pitches. And then the home runs happened. And I think the home runs are probably the most concerning thing. So before... Yeah, the numbers aren't great. So if you go back, so just from
Starting point is 00:19:04 March, April, whatever you want to say, through August of last season, he gave up eight home runs. Since the start of September last season through now, 14, and obviously a lot less games. Yeah, which, I mean, the ball's just flying out of the ballpark, so... Is that, I mean, like, looking back, is that something you look back at September looking now and say, like, what's going on?
Starting point is 00:19:25 Is that an issue? We have some breaking news. Ooh, we got breaking news? The Phillies will host the 2026 All-Star Game at Citizens Bank Park.
Starting point is 00:19:33 Yay, it finally happened. Good things happen on Thursdays. 2026? Is that the 30-year anniversary of the 1996 All-Star Game?
Starting point is 00:19:41 I guess so. A magical All-Star Game. It has to do with the 30th anniversary of it. That's what they're thinking, right? Yeah, it has to be that. It totally makes any sense, right? Yeah, I mean, sure.
Starting point is 00:19:52 I guess we have to remember that. That was the... I mean, Bonds was in that one, right? The Home Run Derby was at Veterans Stadium, which was weird in the first place, I thought. But that's exciting. It's about time we got time. Yeah, dude.
Starting point is 00:20:04 Citizens Bank Park has deserved an All-Star Game. It's absurd that there's not been one there. I mean, but that's exciting. Citizens Bank Park has deserved an all-star game. It's absurd that there's not been one there. That's just absurd. It's one of the best ballparks in baseball and it's been around for a long time. Dude, I'm going to be 31. I don't even want to think about what I'm going to be. Not cool. My daughter is going to be walking, talking,
Starting point is 00:20:20 thinking to that game, so that'll be great. She's going to be excited to be there. She'll actually know what, like, it is. What is the High House podcast doing for that? What are we doing? We've got to start planning now. I mean, like, we should be at least invited by that. How big is the High House podcast going to be by 2026?
Starting point is 00:20:36 In seven years? Yeah. I mean, we should own the city, right? We'll still be talking? I mean, we should own the city, right? Will that be the pathetic breakout season? Will that be it? Oh, it's so sad.
Starting point is 00:20:47 So sad. There it goes. And starting the all-star game, Nick Pavetta in Philly. He finally did it. And there's Jack Fritz outside looking very sad. Jack Fritz. He drove himself crazy. Poor Jack.
Starting point is 00:21:01 He drove himself crazy for six straight years for the Pavetta breakout, and it finally happened. Finally Jack. He drove himself crazy for six straight years for the Pavetta breakout, and it finally happened. Finally happened. Yes. Okay, so. The Pavetta started the 2026 All-Star Game. Calling it now. So, we're a little nervous about Nola.
Starting point is 00:21:11 All right, so yeah, I pulled up the thing I wrote. He's throwing his change up a little bit less this year. Yeah, so his home runs per nine right now is 2.93. Last year it was.72. That's a massive difference. Massive difference. And the ball's flying out of the yard like i i just i don't remember him like the first the first four
Starting point is 00:21:30 months of last season he he allowed eight home runs yep like eight home runs the entire time he's given up five already this year yeah it's it's crazy so you have that um like the heart his hard hit percentage is bad the The barrel percentage is bad. His barrel percentage right now is 13.6. His barrel percentage last year was four. Yeah, that's not good. That's more, I'm more worried now. You're making me more worried. People are squaring him up.
Starting point is 00:21:55 Like, that's the thing that I'm most, his ball moves so much. How are they squaring him up? And why I think that is happening is because he hasn't thrown his changeup. He threw. What's going on with that? Like, why? No, I know. Maybe he lost a feel for it.
Starting point is 00:22:09 I mean, just like Fritz did with his freshman year of college. But like, he's throwing his change up less, right? So last year he threw his change up 20% of the time. It's like 13% so far this year. It's at 13% now. And it's going down because in the national start, he threw 99 pitches and only threw 10 change-ups. And this is the problem with a two-pitch pitcher.
Starting point is 00:22:32 It's because guys can just tee off on your other pitches, and what made Nola so good last year was that, let's say it's a 2-1 count, boom, change-up. You can't just sit on a fastball with Nola. And right now, since he's only been primarily a two-pitch pitcher, they can just sit on his two pitches. His curveball is way more devastating when it may look...
Starting point is 00:22:51 When you don't know if it's going to be a fastball or changeup. Right. So what made Nola so great last year and what led to Nola having the 2-3-7 ERA was that in any count, no matter what, he could throw whatever pitch he want and he would go right where he needed to go. And this year, it just has not been the case.
Starting point is 00:23:07 And when you don't have that third pitch he needs, then his stuff just is not as ridiculous as it was. All right, let's go worry meter. Worry meter from 1 to 10 on Aaron Nola. Well, I think he's going to be a... I don't know if he's going to get back to the level he was last year. Like that level of good. But I think he's going to be a fine pitcher. It might need to change our expectations.
Starting point is 00:23:36 So a 5 or so. Maybe like a 3-2 ERA or something. Okay. Like a 3 ERA. The other thing I want to mention that is killing him, I think. He's starting 47% of accounts he's getting behind. Really? No, no, no.
Starting point is 00:23:53 He's starting accounts 0-1 47% of the time. So 53% of the time he's starting out 1-0. Last year he was 70%. I was going to say it felt like last year he threw first pitch strike all the time. He's not throwing first pitch strikes. He's not throwing first so he's not throwing That's a real issue. He's not throwing first pitch strikes
Starting point is 00:24:07 he's not throwing his change up and his walk rate is 18% right now. It was 7 last year. These numbers are scary, Jack. Like it's they're
Starting point is 00:24:18 I mean numbers don't numbers don't lie people do and it's like this isn't that's not great. Right.
Starting point is 00:24:25 I do think that for him to get back to where he was, I think the most important thing for him, I mean, the most important pitch in baseball is strike one. But for Nola to get back to where he was last year and get back to that pitcher, it comes down to the changeup for me. And look, I am willing to be more on the it's only three starts side of things
Starting point is 00:24:45 because I do believe in Nola. I believe he will get back. I do think it's a good point, though, that to expect him to be the 2-3-7 ERA guy at this point is probably unlikely, but I think he can get close to that. I think he can still be an ace-type pitcher for the Phillies this season. And, I mean, obviously they need him to be. He has to be. All right, so let's also guys aren't chasing like his chase rates is also down which isn't great so people aren't swinging his stuff outside the zone and again i think
Starting point is 00:25:13 he's not fooling people i think that comes back to the change up yeah okay so let's look at it from a macro perspective because you and i i think both agree there's still dallas keitel out there there are trade options, all that. A little PSA action here. Yes. Craig Kimbrell, too. Why aren't they signing these guys? They have such clear deficiencies.
Starting point is 00:25:33 Jack, why aren't they signing these guys? They're not signing Craig Kimbrell or Dallas Keuchel because they do not want to pay the luxury tax. That is the only... It's a real John Middleton, not Jack Middleton type of attitude here, John. I'm sorry if that deflates you, but that is the only reason It's a real John Middleton, not Jack Middleton type of attitude here, John. I'm sorry if that deflates you, but that is the only reason those guys are not here because the Phillies are viewing this as this is year one of a five-year window.
Starting point is 00:25:54 We don't want to go over it in year one and have to get back under it next year to reset it. And so for those who don't know, it is punitive. It's more punitive the more years in a row you are over the tax. So once you can get under it, you kind of reset your clock, as Jack is talking about. But it is exponential from year to year. So if you're over it two years in a row, it's worse. Three years in a row, four years in a row, so on and so forth.
Starting point is 00:26:16 It exponentially gets worse and worse and worse. And it's why the Nationals didn't go after Bryce Harper. Because they would have been in luxury tax hell. They would have been in a part of the bracket that's never been approached before. It's why we knew that they weren't going to sign him. It's why we kept saying
Starting point is 00:26:29 he's not going back to Washington. Also, let's just make fun of the Nationals real quick. I know they took two out of three. It's harder today, Jack. I know it is harder, but James,
Starting point is 00:26:37 15 to one makes it harder. James, my good friend, let me just inform you that they haven't gotten a single dollar of tv money in the last year because of the mass and deal that's going on at the orioles they couldn't sign anyone because they have no they have no tv revenue that is bad they have no tv how is that possible the
Starting point is 00:27:00 phillies meanwhile have a three billion dollar contract i think i'm gonna i thought it was two and a half, but either way, they got billions. Oh, I'd round up. I like it. I'm a big round up guy. Especially when you're talking about hundreds of millions. Why not? Of course. I'd round up.
Starting point is 00:27:13 So, you know, sure, we lost 15-1, but guess what? At least we're making money, and at least we can afford to pay our players, and it'd be a real shame if they can't pay Anthony Rendon. Why did they sign Patrick Corbin? It's a great question. Crazy. Also pay Anthony Rendon. Why did they sign Patrick Corbin? It's a great question. Crazy. Also, Anthony Rendon. Anthony Rendon. He's been in 429. I saw.
Starting point is 00:27:32 Trust me. He just killed us. Murders. He's awesome. Him and Juan Soto are going to haunt us. We haven't even gotten started on Victor Robles. I'm so not excited about those two guys. And Robles too obviously Screw Victor Robles that's my general take on these things
Starting point is 00:27:47 Juan Soto 24 career home runs 8 against the Phillies A third of them And he's like I can't believe that guy's 20 He looks like he's a monster Oh he's a man child He doesn't act like a 20 year old He doesn't look like a 20 year old
Starting point is 00:28:02 That ball off of Jose Alvarez Was like Pujols vs Lidge In 05 to act like a 20-year-old. He doesn't look like a 20-year-old. Yeah, that moonshot. That ball off of Jose Alvarez was like Pujols versus Lidge in 05. It was the major league. It's too high. It's too high. That was too high. I'm sure it was fair. No. No, we're not. But we are
Starting point is 00:28:17 sure that there was not enough evidence of return. I think that if that gets called foul on the field, maybe it stays foul. It looked like it went over it, right? It looked close enough where it looked like it was going over it, but it did hook a ton foul after. So I don't know. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:28:31 We're not sure, but hey. Also, I want to make fun of the Nats one more time. Davey Martinez is still horrible at his job. Yeah, he's not good. So, all right. Bases loaded. JT Real Muto coming. Or no.
Starting point is 00:28:45 Runners on second and third? Or first and second? No, his base is loaded. It was. Bases loaded. JT Real Muto coming. Or no. No. Runners on second and third or first and second? No, it was bases loaded. It was bases loaded. No. No. It wasn't. It was first and second.
Starting point is 00:28:51 It was first and second. First and second. First and second. Okay. You have first and second. You have Real Muto up. You see who's in the on-deck circle, which is Andrew Knapp. And you pitch to JT Real Muto, and he scorches a ball. It just happens to be right at a guy.
Starting point is 00:29:05 Right at a guy, yeah. Right at left fielder. I mean, are you asleep at the wheel? Do you have a pulse? It's a great question. Does Dave Martinez have a pulse? I would consider walking a run in just to face Knapp if it were bases loaded in that situation.
Starting point is 00:29:18 That's how much I'd rather. I'll give him one run. I'm going to face Andrew Knapp here. Bad. Very bad. Andrew Knapp is still on this big ball. I just broke my pen, Jack. I just, that, I'm going to face Andrew Knapp here. Bad. Very bad. Andrew Knapp is still on this painful. I just broke my pen, Jack. I just, that, I broke my pen.
Starting point is 00:29:29 Andrew Knapp. I love this. What do he bring to that people? Him trying to catch last night was also hilarious. But, yeah. Oh, yeah. How about not being able to do, like, the one thing you are here to do? Right.
Starting point is 00:29:38 Bad. So, yeah. The Phillies. I broke my pen, Jack. I'm really. The Phillies do not want to pay the luxury tax. That's what this all boils down to. And that's a bummer.
Starting point is 00:29:48 It's a bummer. Man up. You are a big boy now. We are big boys now. I get it. I get it. But it's like sympathizing with it's year. It's year one.
Starting point is 00:30:00 Jack loves the billionaires. That's what it is. I hope he's on the side of the billionaires. I hope it's on the side of the billionaires. I'm on the side of my team being smart. You know who I'm on the side of, Jack? The people. All right? I get it.
Starting point is 00:30:10 I speak for the people, Jack. I totally, I am totally with you. Does anyone out there care if John Middleton goes over the luxury tax? No? Okay. The Braves just extended Ozzie Alves. You had to expect that was coming. I know.
Starting point is 00:30:23 Everyone's getting extended these days. No free agent is ever hitting the market again unless they're in India. Yeah, Francis Gillen-Doerr's going to be the last one. Also, speaking of hilarious extensions, that Chris Sale contract is going to be horrible. It is aging really poorly, really quickly. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:30:37 Really quickly. We're throwing 89. All right. I want to get into, real quickly also, as we're still on the pitching staff thing. So, real quick, before we move on to the bullpen, is there anything they could do right now, starting-wise, or just hope guys figure it out?
Starting point is 00:30:50 No. I mean, unless someone in AAA forces their hand, I don't see them being able to make a move. Like, if Eikhoff goes on a nice little run here, maybe they bring him up. Drew Anderson. Drew Anderson, if he pitches well. I mean, Cole Irvin's pitching okay. I just, I think you, they had, I think for two straight,
Starting point is 00:31:08 ever since this trade deadline last year, they have mis-evaluated this pitching staff. And it's mildly concerning when you're looking at the future of the Phillies. Because at the trade deadline last year, remember, they had five guys that never pitched as much as they had, and they were all pitching above their heads. We talked about it right here on this podcast. Right, and they went out and they reinforced the other parts of the team.
Starting point is 00:31:29 They brought in players to supplant the young guys in the field, and they tried to win that way, but didn't touch the pitching staff, even though there was signs that there was cracks in the armor of the pitching staff. This offseason, they tried to get Jay ahead. They didn't want to give him a third year. Why didn't you get Charlie Morton? Dude. You know, what did I say?
Starting point is 00:31:51 Who did I say was my one guy going into the offseason? Go back and listen to the podcast. I was like, bring me Charlie Morton. Bring me Charlie Morton. You could have easily done that. I just, from the... He's been awesome. Well, shocking. From the trade deadline last year...
Starting point is 00:32:04 He's one of those guys you, like, if you see him pitch, and the gifs are all over Twitter and all that, but he's just nasty. All you have to do is watch that guy pitch and be like, oh, he's good. That guy's good at this. Right. Agreed. So ever since the trade deadline last year. It's like three years, $30 million or something.
Starting point is 00:32:19 They've done something like that, right? Two years, $30. Two years. Fine. Great. Even better. Less years. Right. Right. It better. Less years. Right.
Starting point is 00:32:27 Right. It's infuriating. And since the trade deadline last year, they have mis-evaluated this pitching staff. And I fear that they might have done it again. Sure. They look at... I like FIP. Sure. But I think they live and die by it a little bit too much. They quote it
Starting point is 00:32:43 all the time. It's like, oh, but it's FIPP is blah, blah, blah. FIPP is blah. It's like, alright, we get it. You know what FIPP is. Cool. Yeah, I mean FIPP can work, but there has to be more to your evaluation of your starters than just using their FIPP and thinking that your defense is going to be that much improved that it's going to be that
Starting point is 00:33:00 drastically different. You have to physically watch these guys throw and see that Velasquez is all over the place and doesn't have great stuff pivetta is a two-pitch pitcher and arietta hasn't missed a bat in two years so so i'm a little thinking about that now i'm just stuck thinking about the rays now they got charlie morton and yanni torino and all these guys you could just make the ball move and like compete scared like well i mean jose alvaredo i mean that dude that guy just throws hard and did you see that one yeah i've never seen a pitch move like that in my life at
Starting point is 00:33:30 99 that's what i mean it's a fastball and somehow just like tailed off the table like i've never seen like it yeah so i i'm i'm a little frustrated with their evaluation of their own pitching staff and because the most important thing when you're when you're looking at a future of a team you have to self-evaluate and you have to self-evaluate. And you have to self-evaluate and you have to see what you have. And, like, we're on board the JT Real Muto trade. But what if they gave away Pedro 2.0?
Starting point is 00:33:54 Well, the way they evaluate their pitchers and they were willing to trade him, who knows now? Now I'm scared. Now I'm scared. Mildly concerned. Although Spencer Howard is starting to ease my concerns a little bit. Yeah, you know where I'm at on Spencer Howard. That's my guy. I'm very in on Spencer Howard.
Starting point is 00:34:07 Yeah. All right, bullpen. Elliot Chirparks wrote a piece for 94WIP.com that he consulted you on. And the idea was- Partially. Yeah, apparently, yeah. He asked you and then he took some of what you said and not the others. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:34:21 Because there was a name missing from it that I thought was crazy. He had to work in those two good Marlins relief Who doesn't want Drew Steckenreiter on their squad? Alright, quickly, if they should be looking to trade for a bullpen arm, where do you stand on a potential bullpen arm trade? There are some names out
Starting point is 00:34:38 there. I know there's one guy who you would like to see them go for. I mean, I would love Felipe Vasquez. He's really good. Yeah, and the thing is, he's going to cost a lot. He's not a free agent until 2024, so he's 27 years old, and he's very good. The recent history of what those, the Brad hands of the world, the Andrew Millers a few years ago. You're giving up legit, guys. You're giving up your best prospect, probably.
Starting point is 00:35:02 I mean, what the Yankees got for Andrew Miller a couple years ago when they traded Andrew Miller was Clint Frazier and Justice Sheffield. Both, at times, have been top 20 prospects in all of baseball. So Sheffield is now. And they traded him to the Mariners. It's nice to see that Clint Frazier has finally arrived.
Starting point is 00:35:18 Finally playing, man. He's looking good. I'm happy for Clint. But yeah, so Felipe Vasquez is going to cost a lot. But here's where I'm at with the bullpen. I would rather pay a lot prospect-wise for a player that is still theoretically on the rise or at least maintainable rather than pay a guy who's clearly on the decline like Craig Kimbrell. Like Craig Kimbrell in last year, his spin rates have gone down, his walk rates have gone up,
Starting point is 00:35:44 his strikeout rate has gone down, and his velocity has gone down. And really, if you look at it, two of the last three years for Kimbrell in last year, his spin rates have gone down, his walk rates have gone up, his strikeout rate has gone down, and his velocity has gone down. And really, if you look at it, two of the last three years for Kimbrell have been bad. He had that one otherworldly year two years ago, and everyone's like, oh, Kimbrell's back. But if you look at the year he had two years ago, or two years ago, I guess three years ago now, and this past season prior to this season,
Starting point is 00:35:59 he's been, he's gotten saves, he's not been good. Right, and the Yankees the the Red Sox had Chris Sale closed the game last year the close the World Series like that's a pretty big indicator that Craig Kimball's not right so the the underlying stats would show that Craig Kimball's not nearly as good as he as he once was and I just don't like I don't like paying closers for prior performance so I don't I'm I don't want Craig Kimball like I I I do think that Robertson and Sir Anthony are both better options this season than Craig Kimbrell. I like that take. Robertson is fine.
Starting point is 00:36:31 And Sir Anthony, we talked about Sir Anthony on Monday. It was on Monday. It was on Monday and he looked great again. He looked great. Like great. Like 98 with cut was back. Back. Exactly what we were talking about.
Starting point is 00:36:43 We're like, where's that pitch where he throws the cutter and just cuts away at the end of the pitch? Right. We didn't see any of that. We saw it. Agreed. And also the four-pitch outing, he looked great again two nights ago. Just, he's looked good.
Starting point is 00:36:53 And everyone's worried about a set closer. I would love to have a set closer. So would Gabe. So would Klintak. They've talked about it. Right. I think Robertson's going to work his way into becoming the set closer. I think he's looked much better.
Starting point is 00:37:03 I think he's calmed down. Everything's kind of settling back into a rhythm. his way into becoming the set closer. I think he's looked much better. I think he's calmed down. Everything's kind of settling back into a rhythm and they'll have a set guy. But also, if you got like Vasquez or you got Rossio Iglesias and you had them as your closer, whoever you're going to bring up. And you're saying for years to come? Yeah. I would
Starting point is 00:37:17 rather pay the prospect price for a guy that's going to be here for three to four years that is still young and still theoretically could maintain than the signed Craig Kimbrell. I would pay prospect-wise. Okay, and I would too. I'm totally cool with that. I got a name, not in Elliot's piece.
Starting point is 00:37:32 I don't know if you said it to him or not, but this guy is in the last year of his contract, so you're going to get him for way cheaper than Vasquez would come. How about that Will Smith, man? He's such a good pitcher. All that dude does is get out. He's a lefty.
Starting point is 00:37:44 They freaking love lefties. He's shown he can close in San Francisco. He's such a good pitcher. Like, all that dude does is get outs. He's a lefty. They freaking love lefties. He's shown he can close in San Francisco. He's in the last year of his contract. He's making $4 million. Go get Will Smith. Go get Will Smith. You know where the San Francisco Giants are going? Nowhere.
Starting point is 00:37:57 They are very willing to move pieces, especially one who's probably going to leave at the end of the season. Williams? Would you trade Nick Williams for Will Smith? In a second. I wouldn't think twice Nick Williams for Will Smith? In a second. I wouldn't think twice about it. Will Smith is... I wonder if they would do it.
Starting point is 00:38:09 Will Smith is... Do you think the Giants would do it? Yes. I think the Giants... I mean, they're starting Steven Duggar. Yeah, here's the point. And again, this is all dependent upon how they value certain guys and how they would look at Nick Williams and what they think he is.
Starting point is 00:38:20 But the point is, is if both Vasquez and Smith get traded, Vasquez is going to go for a haul oh and Will Smith could be gotten for not a haul yeah but obviously the difference is that you'll get him for this year and then you know you figure it out right and then he's 29 he's going to be 30 next season how do you really want to sign him long term and all that but yeah for right now if you're looking for an arm who you don't have to pay out the ass for but who could come in and make a world of difference for this team, I think Will Smith's that guy.
Starting point is 00:38:48 I agree. I think Will Smith is very good. I'm just here for the West Philadelphia memes. Oh, I didn't even think about that part of it. Oh, that would have been amazing. It would be phenomenal. Let's do that. That's worth it.
Starting point is 00:38:59 That's worth it just for that. My stance on Kimbrel is that he's not nearly as good as he was. Do people think that if he was signed on Monday he would be able to close on Tuesday like people people think that people act like Craig
Starting point is 00:39:10 Kimbrell could roll out of bed and be like Clemens in 05 and when I signed him today it is April 11th Craig Kimbrell would not pitch for the Phillies until early
Starting point is 00:39:18 May some other fair fair thing to say yeah okay some other names I laid out for Elliot that he did not use in the piece I he did not use in the piece. He did use Michael Givens and Archie Bradley. Look, Bradley, I don't know
Starting point is 00:39:32 if they'd trade Bradley. I think that he's one of those guys who even though they're not competing, they believe in as a core part of their team. But I would gladly, gladly take Archie Bradley in a second. Givens... It's cheap. Givens is a good pitcher, I think, and the Orioles are going to sell whatever they can for
Starting point is 00:39:48 value, so yeah, that's an issue. I gave him the name Shane Green. It's 8 for 8, man. Disgusting. 8 for 8. Yeah. 8 for 8. They've won 8 games. He's saved all of them. Yeah. Tigers are bad. They could use a piece. Oh, and they would trade Shane Green right now. Yeah, I agree. Rossio Iglesias, kind of in the Felipe
Starting point is 00:40:04 Vasquez... We've talked about him. Struggled so far this year, hasn't looked great, and also the Reds are kind of, he just got his first save, but they've kind of been using him unconventionally too so far, but I love Rocio Iglesias.
Starting point is 00:40:13 I've long been a Rocio Iglesias fan. He's the one guy in baseball that I always look at and say, I would have no chance to hit this guy. The one. Yeah. The only one. No, no, I know,
Starting point is 00:40:22 but if I was a major leaguer. You're just talking about Jose Alvarado and how that pitch is just like, who could possibly hit that? But he does the whole sidearm thing. He's nasty. The only one. No, no, I know. But if I was a major leaguer. You're just talking about Jose Alvarado and now that pitch is just like, who could possibly hit that? But he does the whole sidearm thing. He's nasty. I love him. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:40:30 In. I agree with you. Keone Kella from the Pirates. Sure. Sure. And my final one, Kirby Yates. I thought about Yates too. Yates of hell.
Starting point is 00:40:39 I like that. I like to call him Kerbert. I don't know why I did that. I was watching him. Is he a Kerbert? He was a great savior. No, he's not. I just called him Kerbert. Well, because I own him on my fantasy team. Shout like to call him Curbert. I don't know why I did that. I was watching him. Is he a Curbert? He was a great save. No, he's not. I just called him Curbert.
Starting point is 00:40:46 Well, because I own him on my fantasy team. Shout out to Kirby. Okay. And I watched his save yesterday. It was like, starts off rough, runners on first and second. What does he do? He just strikes a bunch of guys out because he's Kirby Yates. No problem.
Starting point is 00:41:00 Here's the point. Here's the point. Real quick on Kirby Yates. He was actually the very first name that popped in my head I just think the Padres want to try and contend this year so I don't know
Starting point is 00:41:08 if they'd be as willing to move on from him he was the very first name I thought of when this type of discussion comes up agreed and
Starting point is 00:41:14 I like Hector Neris I don't trust Hector Neris no I mean look we both I very much like Hector Neris but especially in high leverage situations,
Starting point is 00:41:26 I can't trust him. I don't feel great about it. Like people are throwing him in the same realm as Sir Anthony and Robertson. I think that's crazy. Dude, a lot of people think he's like the de facto closer if you had to choose one, which is insanity to me. That guy can't handle the money. He went for way too much money on my fab budget bidding this past.
Starting point is 00:41:44 Someone spent like 1010 on him. I'm like, what are you doing? Yeah. I think the official position, and this is fair, the official position of the High Host podcast is we'd rather trade prospects for a good reliever that has still maintained their level of- 100%. Rather than going after Craig Kimbrell, paying him too much, maybe getting him like three
Starting point is 00:42:01 or four years for a guy that's clearly on the decline. Yeah. My take on Kimbrell has always been two years, maybe. much maybe getting like three or four years for a guy that's clearly on the decline yeah my take on kimbrough has always been two years maybe one year sure why the hell not but i'm with you i would much rather get someone i legitimately trust a guy i know will get the job now what about this would it with a smart plan for the phillies to be give keitel a one-year deal for 16 million ish to be give Keuchel a one-year deal for 16 million-ish and then short the bullpen? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:42:28 I think that'd be a... Look, I... That's smarter than using... I've often said I would rather sign Keuchel than Kimbrell. I still believe that. That has not changed. Because when I've been trying to watch potential trade candidates, like I've just been trying to monitor Bumgarner, I don't like what I've seen from Bumgarner at all. Hasn't been great so far.
Starting point is 00:42:44 And I only talk to rival scouts and executives and they're just like, hey, heumgarner. I don't like what I've seen from Bumgarner at all. Hasn't been great so far. And like, I only talk to rival scouts and executives and they're just like, hey, he might be done. Like, the fastball's not there. The stuff just doesn't look great. I mean, I just don't, I don't think I want any old starter anymore. I mean, I think Sale's almost toast. Arrieta I don't love.
Starting point is 00:42:59 Darvish looks horrible. Like, all these old guys have gotten old quick. Yeah. Very quick. People have fallen off a cliff quickly. Which is crazy to me. I mean the sale thing is I'm not ready to put Chris Sale
Starting point is 00:43:10 out to pasture yet. I can't. He's been too great for too long. Yeah but dude. I mean he's been top three in Cy Young like five years in a row or something. I know.
Starting point is 00:43:17 Even Scherzer doesn't look as dumb. No. Yeah I mean DeGrom actually got hit up the other day. Yeah but he's fine. DeGrom's fine. He's the one guy I actually feel unbelievable about.
Starting point is 00:43:25 So when I look at the potential trade candidates, I don't know if there's a starter out there that's going to make a huge difference rather than a guy in the bullpen. So Keuchel might even be one of the best options available. I mean, Robbie Ray, he looked good last night. He threw five no-hit innings and struck out 10 and then got hit around a little bit.
Starting point is 00:43:42 He's probably the best trade option right now. That's crazy. Because I don't think there's any, I look at the other starters and it's just, who is going to help me this year
Starting point is 00:43:52 and for the future years? Well, no, yeah, that's the question. I'm thinking more like this year right now. For as much as I, I want to compete this year. I would love to try
Starting point is 00:43:59 to win the World Series this year. But I am a window guy and I don't know if this is going to be the year they get it done. So I don't want to give up major assets for a one-year guy. I'm just cycling through the teams in my head right now
Starting point is 00:44:11 who are absolutely not going to compete. Like, not the fringe teams. Like, even a team like, you know, the Pirates are not going to compete, but they're, like, fringy type of team. I think they're pretty much out of it. Take Joe Musgrove from them? I would take Joe Musgrove in a second I would take Joe Musgrove in a second. I think Joe Musgrove's a good young pitcher.
Starting point is 00:44:27 I think there's upside there. I'm talking like the Reds. Even Sonny Gray is someone I would take a shot on. I'm with you. The options are not as enticing out there. People just say, oh, just trade for a pitcher. I don't know who you trade for. Hamels?
Starting point is 00:44:42 Yeah, that's the type of name. And the Cubs are not look, the Cubs are not ready to sell, but they've not been good to start. And Theo admitted that it's all his fault, so that's good. He actually said, at Jack Fritz WIP, it's my fault. Yeah, probably. He's on Twitter.
Starting point is 00:44:57 Did you miss that? I missed it. Good to know. Alright, let's, how about we talk about a starting staff that you're actually excited about? They're facing the Marlins, buddy. The frisky Marlins. They missed Pablo Lopez, so they don't have to deal with that. Beautiful thing.
Starting point is 00:45:12 So I think they got Alcantara, Caleb Smith, and is it Richards that they get? Or is it? Oh, no. I think it's Urena. They get Urena. It's Urena. That's no fun. It's fun for me.
Starting point is 00:45:24 Good. I'd rather face Urena than Richards. No, I know. Not fun for. They get Urena. It's Urena. That's no fun. It's fun for me. Good. I'd rather face Urena than Richards. No, I know. Not fun for you who wants to watch these guys pitch. Okay, yeah. So it's Alcantara versus Alcantara versus Arrieta. Kayla Smith versus Eflin. And Vince Velasquez versus Jose Urena.
Starting point is 00:45:37 That's actually the way you want it to shake out. Yeah. Yeah. Urena stinks. Yeah, he's terrible. He's terrible. And he's an asshole. Yeah, I don't like him at all. Yeah. But yeah, no.. Yeah, he's terrible. He's terrible. And he's an asshole. Yeah, I don't like him at all.
Starting point is 00:45:46 Yeah. But yeah, no, it'll be a fun weekend. Alcantara is going to be hard to hit. Caleb Smith, I like him. I don't love him. He's going to be a nice bullpen. He strikes guys out. Yeah, he strikes guys out.
Starting point is 00:45:57 So, yeah, honestly, couldn't come at a better time. They need this. They need a get-right series right now. I wish Pavetta was pitching this weekend. Of course you do. You want to just get right back on the horse here. Well, I... Because he's facing the Marlins.
Starting point is 00:46:10 Yeah. That's it. I need him to get a confidence start underneath his belt. I thought you were out on Nick Pavetta. It's tough to give up on the ones you love. Speaking of which, speaking of which with Pavetta, here's my Jack Fritz take. What? I think that you see yourself as Pavetta. I know. And that, yes!
Starting point is 00:46:26 Am I right about this? Yes. Yes! I knew it! I knew it! And I knew that's how you're so in on Pavetta. There's a connection there. You can see it. You're like, that's what I would be if I were in the Major Leagues. You're dead right. You're dead right. I thought about this long and hard. I put way too much thought
Starting point is 00:46:42 into this take, but I felt really good about it. I'm so happy I was right about this. The reason why I love Pavetta is because I just I see myself. I knew it. I had a flat forcing fastball. I had a nasty slider. Bit of a head case. Major head case.
Starting point is 00:46:58 And very stubborn. Always thought they were right. Always thought they knew. Oh, I'm so happy about this. I knew it. It's very rare that anyone who coached me or played with me knew more about baseball than me. That is all I will say. And no, I'm serious. You're humble. I never took coaching well because I was like, eh.
Starting point is 00:47:17 He's like, I know more than you. Yeah. So me and Pavetta, I saw, I see, it's just tough. You see a lot of yourself in a guy and you want to believe in the guy I'm just saying if I had 96 and that level of a curveball
Starting point is 00:47:29 you'd be a starter in the major leagues you'd be a stud you know what I would've done this whole offseason I'm guessing learn a third pitch learn a third pitch
Starting point is 00:47:34 you know that's probably what I would've done and maybe I would've messed around with a freaking splitter dude like
Starting point is 00:47:40 so I was texting Franzen I was texting Franzen and I was like name drop it's not really a name drop we talk about Franzen all the time I'm just joking and I It's not really a name drop. We talk about Franzen all the time. I'm just joking. And I texted him.
Starting point is 00:47:47 Bit of a name drop. I texted him, and he's like- So I texted this former major league player, no biggie. He's like, he should learn to split her. I was like, I know. I know. This is what I said. This is what I said.
Starting point is 00:47:57 So very, very frustrated with where we're at with Pavetta. But there's nothing you can do about it now, because he didn't do anything this offseason. So I guess keep running him out there and let my mentions... Hope for the best, baby. I feel like I have to talk to him. I feel like I have to be like, listen, dude. Why don't you? Go down there. Talk to him. Say, hey, man. Look what you're doing to me.
Starting point is 00:48:15 You're making me look bad. I put my ass on the line for you. Thank you. And what are you doing for me? Right. Not the Phillies. Not yourself. Me. Done. That's all that really matters. We get to the bottom of this every week. All right.
Starting point is 00:48:30 Anything you want to get to before final thoughts, Fritzy? Should we do the Baseball America mock draft now or should I finish for final thoughts? People are too excited. All right. Give me one minute. Okay. One minute. By the way, just real quick.
Starting point is 00:48:43 The draft is in June. I don't care. The draft is in June. And we got a baseball team that matters. One minute. By the way, just real quick. The draft is in June. I don't care. The draft is in June and we got a baseball team that matters. Go ahead. So, Baseball America mocked Logan Davidson to the Phillies today or yesterday and there are only two
Starting point is 00:48:56 players I don't want in the first round and it's him and it's Reese Hines. So the fact that they would do that to me, I thought was a little bit rude. It's a personal front, like an affront to you. So, this guy... They took, they actually took a direct shot do that to me, I thought was a little bit rude. It's a personal front, like an affront to you. So this guy. They actually took a direct shot at him. Now I get why they pegged him because he's a great play discipline and has power. Sounds like a Phillies guy.
Starting point is 00:49:13 Yeah, yeah. But the guy had a 200 batting average in the Cape Cod League and he strikes out a lot. That's not good. No. No. Having a 200 batting average in a wood bat league, which is what you're going to be using in the major leagues. And he's a top 15 pick?
Starting point is 00:49:25 Yeah. Yeah. So, please no. And Rhys Hines is this power hitting third base prospect that has like light tower power, like legit raw, but he's just so raw. And I watched one game and I was like, this guy can't even touch a curveball.
Starting point is 00:49:37 Yeah. Like he, trouble with the curve. So, trouble with the curve? Is what we call those kind of guys. They made a movie about it. Also, I mean, you did just draft a power rating third baseman last year not that well that power rating third baseman has no home runs since they drafted him and he's basically a slap hitter but yes i was wrong about his hands not zapping all this power you've had a rough month on twitter
Starting point is 00:49:58 since harper len it's pretty much been downhill everyone's turning on the kid it's like these people that people just forget that the only reason Bryce Harper's here is because of HarperLent. So, you know, you can thank me every once in a while. Oh, buddy! The only reason Bryce Harper's here, not the $330 million, not the 13 years, is because of HarperLent. There we go.
Starting point is 00:50:18 I got nothing to say to that. Final thought, Jack. Final thought. I've been wrong about some of the season. Mickey Moniac. Two for four last night. I should just call the final thought Mickey Moniac thought now moving forward. Mickey Moniac. Two for four last night with a home run.
Starting point is 00:50:37 It was supposedly freezing where they were. They were not in Redding. Moniac breakout. Moniac breakout season. It's a real breakout. and and by the way adam hazley's like oh for his last 18 which is not a great start not great trade him we'll say maybe a vasquez felipe vasquez deal okay all right i think my felipe vasquez deal would be hazley romero and a lower level guy like gamboa you know what i'm gonna say to that right
Starting point is 00:51:02 what pirates ain't taking that yeah i, I guess it'd be more. Cost control, lights out, closer at 27? You've got to give up one of your top prospects. Medina Haisley? That's the thing. That's what it's going to cost. I think you're going to have to give up someone like Medina to get Vasquez. I agree.
Starting point is 00:51:20 That's why you go trade freaking JoJo for Will Smith and you're good to go. Think about that. Yeah, but it's only for one year. It's an important year, Jack. The Albies contract is $954, by the way. Why do these people keep giving the Braves money? First of all, the Acuna contract is now. We all thought the Nola contract was the best in the sport.
Starting point is 00:51:38 Nope, it's the Acuna contract. You're going to have the best player in the sport. Yeah, the Jose Ramirez one has been for a while, but Acuna's better better and he's going to be better at least i mean long term he's better and yes i couldn't i couldn't believe that and now they get albie's nine for 54 are they like forcing these guys to take these contracts are they like no one point no one was four for 45 wasn't he is it a gump i think they're a gunpoint and they're just putting a contract i'm through do it um i think that's what's happening. Nine for 54?
Starting point is 00:52:05 I don't know what else is happening. All right. My final thought. That is crazy. It's crazy. All right. My final thought. I really like this pen.
Starting point is 00:52:13 And you broke it? I'm really upset about it. Guess who I blame? Andrew Knapp. Get out of here. Leave. Please. I'm really sad about this pen.
Starting point is 00:52:24 All right. It's okay. We have WIP pens. Get sad about this pen. All right. It's okay. We have WIP pens. Get right serious this weekend. We better be talking about more fun stuff on Monday. Until then, he's Fritz. I'm Seltzer. We'll talk to you later.
Starting point is 00:52:42 All-star closer, Kenley Jansen. We have a question. What's the best podcast of all time? Baseball isn't boring, baby. I'm Rob Bradford, and every single day I'm sitting down with the biggest names to show you this great game is the greatest game. It's my podcast. It's my passion.
Starting point is 00:52:57 It's a cause I started more than two years ago and is now the most prolific national daily baseball pod there is. Another fact. So jump aboard the bib express follow and listen to baseball isn't boring presented by wasabi hot cloud storage on the free odyssey app or wherever you get your podcasts

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