High Hopes: A Phillies Podcast - Previewing The MLB Draft With Joe Doyle

Episode Date: July 13, 2024

Jack Fritz and Joe Doyle discuss this weekend's MLB Draft and which prospects would make sense for the Phillies in the first round. Presented by Miller Lite. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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on the free Odyssey app or wherever you get your podcasts. Well, it's draft season. Obviously, the draft is one week away. And joining us now on the Iowa's podcast is my guy. And of all the draft analysts out there my favorite bar none is joe doyle from future star series.com uh all the way out in seattle so like joins us on this on this sunday night joe how's it going man what's going on dude i uh i gotta introduce you to some more draft analysts because your Rolodex is kind of thin.

It is. Well, you know, I'm an eye test guy. I feel like you're a good mix of an eye test guy and also have the data behind it. So, you know, whenever they draft a guy in like the sixth round, I think last year you had the George Clawson thing, you know, how he had the best slider in the Midwest. clausen thing you know how i had the best slider in the in the midwest and i was like you know if you if you're breaking down george clausen who's like a sixth seventh round guy you know you definitely did put in some work hey man it's uh it's a labor of love and it's a bit of an illness but we're gonna get through it together we sure are we sure are now obviously we're a week out like you know what's this like final week for you like is it is it

like excitement nerves is it like man finally a year's work or actually like three years work it feels like for every draft like putting that behind you what's this last kind of week like for you yeah dude this is definitely one of the most fulfilling times of the year because i get to take all of those reports that i write i get to put them in a manila envelope lick it seal it done like i'm done with this year which feels good um you know this year i'm up to 949 reports and which is crazy because you know i think i'm the high watermark in the industry i publish 615 of them because that's how many draft picks there are but you guys have to understand there's like 300 of them that never see the light of day because they're not you know top draft prospects so it's nice to turn the page go to the draft talk to directors you know see where this thing goes

and then kind of palate cleanse and go into 25 yeah you know it's awesome and obviously all your work at future stars series.com a I'm a proud subscriber of the website. Thank you, Jack. Of course. Of course. So you recently moved over there, so it's really good stuff. And before we get into 27, I'm kind of curious how the Phillies specifically are viewed throughout the industry. Because really, Brian Barber took over a couple years ago.

And before him, they went very safe with players. It was like, and they turned out to be pretty good. You know, Stott, Boehm, both more of the safer college picks. And ever since Brian Barber's gotten there, they've really gone for more high upside guys. Like at the high school ranks. What is kind of the industry feel on where the Phillies are at as a drafting organization? Yeah, I don't know if there's necessarily an industry feel on the where the phillies are at as a drafting organization yeah i don't know if there's necessarily a an industry feel on the phillies i i think they could go in any number of directions but

i think the thing that really stands out with what philadelphia has done and you kind of alluded to this is they just draft stuff man like they're not afraid of guys that can't throw strikes they're not afraid of guys that only have two pitches they're not afraid of you know they're just going for for stuff like painter 100 miles an hour in high school stuff like griff mcgary 100 miles an hour at virginia stuff guy christian mcgowan i know hasn't been like as good as some of these other ones that have come on but you know like orion kirkering last year i'm i'm sure we're gonna see him sooner rather than later george Klassen, like the Phillies have just continued to draft guys that throw really hard. They throw really hard breaking balls and they're not afraid of moving them to the bullpen and helping out this competitive window right now. So I still think that they're going to go arms.

It's kind of what Dave Dombrowski and Brian Barber have continued to do. And it'll be it'll be interesting to see who's on the board at 27. That's for sure. and it'll be it'll be interesting to see who's on the board at 27 that's for sure yeah and um you know one of the guys i actually wanted to ask you about because he feels like a a philly and it feels like this fits their mold is brody brett you know obviously the iowa kid throws like 101 i saw one video that had 104 that had to be a lie, right? They can't really throw 104, can they? Yeah, that was a hot wind gun. It was 101.5. TrackMan has it at 101.5, but don't tell the internet that

because they will not let the 104 die. No, they won't. No, they won't. So what do you kind of feel about him? Is he going to be able to throw enough strikes? Maybe he has to go to the right organization to get the most out of him. Do you think he's on the board at 27? Yeah, I have 50-50 that I think he's on the board.

It's kind of hard to find a landing spot right now for Brody, and it's not that people don't want him. It's that he's just not the first guy that people talk about. I think I mocked Brody to the Phillies maybe a month ago because all the guys that I just named, like he just fits into that bucket. Like it's 101. It's a 91 mile an hour slider. It's an 87 mile an hour curve ball,

just obscene, obscene stuff. And it's the type of move that, you know, Brian Barber and Dave from Browse, who would make right now and just say, who cares if this guy starts, let's put them in the big league bullpen tomorrow and see what he can do for

us in october you know the garrett crochet 2020 i think that was 2020 uh tact so yeah i think he makes a lot of sense in that respect um i haven't specifically heard him connected to them but i i just have a hard time seeing how they wouldn't be interested in that kind of arsenal. Yeah, I mean, it's power stuff, and he could move pretty quickly. Like Griff, looking like probably a miss, but got a triple-A, and maybe there's still something there. Kirkering, I mean, you mentioned him. He's now in the pen now and being pretty locked down. Clawson, we mentioned, like getting brody brecht in the first

round with with the kind of stuff he has i mean it's it's they obviously like the high school players because i think they have the value the upside but correct me if i'm wrong like he was playing football until last year and then and then made the full-time transition essentially this year i mean he played football in 2023 and then this past fall was the first fall that he never that he didn't play football he didn't do false uh practice he actually did fall ball with the baseball team and he actually got some chances there to develop and understand pitch design and understand his delivery and like really hone in on baseball so from that respect you could say well brody brecht is still pretty green i mean this kid is still kind of figuring out how his body is going to work he's obviously an elite

level athlete if he was playing wide receiver at 6-4 for the iowa hawkeyes um i would be interested in seeing what the phillies thought they could do with him and you know i don't think you necessarily move him into the bullpen this october and it's it's permanent I think you could move him uh back into a rotation type of a thing for 2025 and see what you can't develop into the only thing that I have a little bit of hesitation to with connecting Brecht to the Phillies is those guys that we mentioned McGarry and Klassen and Kirkering they were all you know fourth third fourth fifth round types uh the the Phillies haven't yet shown a willingness to take a a likely reliever in the first round uh to this point so that that would be my hesitation but in terms of fit and guys that

they've taken in the past boy it's it's hard to find a better one yeah it would it would be something for sure uh some of the college hitters you know that they i don't know what the the like the industry feels about some of these college bats, but there could be some names that I know that general baseball fans have heard about, like Tommy White, who's been around for years, Tommy Tanks, Ryan Waldschmidt, who obviously, I don't know if people are breaking down much Kentucky tape, but people seem to like him, Dakota Jordan on Mississippi State, and then Malcolm Moore, I guess, would be more if they think that JT has only,

he's under contract through next year, but they need his kind of replacement. I'm just curious what you think about Tommy White. What do you think his fit would be here? He's kind of third baseman, but is the bat so good that you don't even worry about position at this point? Hard to say. I mean, the only times that this dombrowski era has veered away from pitching was was for justin crawford and justin crawford was you know an elite level athlete with a terrific frame up the middle so they haven't really shown a willingness to take a guy

that is already a corner guy uh right away at least in the first round that being said like you know they did take aiden miller last year though they took, they did. But Aiden Miller's been playing shortstop. I mean, they still haven't moved him off a shortstop. So they clearly believed, hey, this this kid has a shot to stick at the six. I don't think they would take Tommy White. And one of the biggest reasons I don't see it happening is because they've already got, you know, they move Bryce Harper to first base. You know, if you're going to move Bryce Harper to first base now,

Tommy White is not going to be a third baseman at the pro level, at least not from my eye. So I don't know if he's the best fit if they think he's the fastest mover if they think he can be an immediate impact in this in this uh in this lineup in 2026 maybe it makes sense but uh with what they've done in the past i would be more surprised if they didn't go for a high school athlete over a guy like tommy white yeah and we'll definitely get to the high school athletes because i i agree with you like That's just what they do. But I'm just trying to cover the old bases here. Oh, you got to. You got to talk about the famous guys.

Yeah, exactly. We're trying to get clicks. There's so much clicks on this stuff. Ryan Walshman, second baseman at the next level probably? Or do you think he can play stick and shortstop? Ryan Walshman? Yeah. Oh, Ryan Walshman I have as a left fielder uh i think he's gonna be playing i think he's gonna play left field uh he played a little bit

of center field played a little bit of left field for kentucky he can really really run um and i do think he fits a little bit more along the along the mold of what the phillies would do but honestly i think i kind of think ryan walshmidt is going to end up at one of these more model driven teams ahead of the Phillies. So the Orioles, the Brewers, the Braves, like I think he's not going to really be an option for Philadelphia. But an interesting name, nonetheless, a guy that really continues to shoot up boards. All right. Enough of the college nonsense. Let's get to the important stuff. Let's get to the high school up the middle, guys. So I'm going to go one by one here.

He might not be there. You guys have had him pretty consistently in the early 20s. Curious your thoughts on Wyatt Sanford. I'm a huge Wyatt Sanford bull. I really am, man. I saw that kid play in San Diego. I saw him play in Seattle last year.

He got remarkably stronger. I mean, he put on 15 pounds this spring. He's hitting for power. He's arguably the best defensive shortstop on the high school ranks this year. Better chance to play shortstop long term, as you would probably know, than Aiden Miller. He's an exceptional athlete. Left-handed hitter, which I think goes a long ways in terms of projecting out some value. I think he's a terrific fit.

I think he would be a terrific fit for Philly. I don't know if he's going to be there at 27. I think there's some teams above that that would target him in the 10 spots earlier than that. But enormous fan. I mean, I've got him. Where do I have Wyatt? I've got Wyatt at number 21 in this class.

Wouldn't surprise me if he goes uh anywhere between 20 and 30 and i think philly would be really lucky to have him and speaking of that i'm curious how how close do you think like wyatt will get some other names like theo gillen um tyson lewis what is the separation between them and the bryce rainier and and conor griffins is there Is there that big of a gap? It's just straight up size, man. Like at the end of the day, Rainier, you're talking about 6'3.5". Connor Griffin, you're talking about 6'4".

You're talking about broad squared off shoulders. I mean, they look like the blue chip, right? They look like the five-star guy. Wyatt Sanford, more 6'1", 185. Twitchier, shorter strides. It's just, you know, it's harder for a kid that's six foot one to get it into his power than it is for a kid that's six foot four to get to it at the next level and uh you know i i talked to a scout last year and what he said really stuck with me he said

the guys that are in the big leagues don't look like the small guys in high school like you can't fake being big and physical you have to be big and physical at the next level and that's one of the biggest things that these guys like wyatt sanford it's like caldwell and tyson lewis they're fighting an uphill battle because tyson lewis is a little bit different he's a six foot two 200 but he's physically maxed at this point guys like sanford guys like like like lindsey guys like you know some of the guys that we've mentioned uh they're just smaller and so it's going to be harder for them to become impact players at the next level what about theo gillen you know you guys have him uh 20 uh 23 he has been mocked being right around where the phillies

could pick seems like a philly's gonna pick a sweet left-handed swing with some with some upside that i think he's getting stronger as well him and why to put on a little bit more weight what can you tell us about Theo Gillen? Yeah, so I think Theo is probably comfortably the third best bat in this class. Behind Griffin, behind Rainer, I think Theo Gillen is clearly the bat that is going to have the most impact at the next level. The biggest thing with him is he had shoulder surgery as a sophomore in high school. His arm strength never came back. I don't think there's any chance at this point.

I think that's being fair to him that he's going to play shortstop at the next level he's probably a second baseman or he's going to end up in in center field or left field but what i just talked about with that physicality like gillen 6-3 200 sweet left-handed uh swing that that can hit the the biggest hurdle for gillen will be how early is a team willing to draft that profile and he's also a plus runner how early is a team willing to draft that profile knowing full well he's probably going to be at very best just an average glove wherever he ends up that's interesting that's interesting but it could be an opportunity to get a player that maybe would have gone higher um had he been fully healthy? So, again, that feels – I mean, it's kind of like Aiden last year, you know,

with the broken handmaid bone. Now, he was always going to come back from that, but the way you're describing it, that's probably not going to happen. But when we talk about trying to get value at 27, that definitely, you know, piques my interest. Kellen Lindsey, you brought him up. He seems like a late riser. There's been some Trey Turner comps on him.

Do you think he's a shortstop? Do you think he's more of a center fielder? You know, how far off? Now, Trey Turner obviously is turning to Trey Turner, but Trey Turner at NC State may be a different animal. What do you think about Kellen Lindsey? So this is the guy that I haven't been able to get him to philly in any of my mocks but he's the guy that i think if he's there really speaks the language of what

these guys are looking to add he's definitely up the middle he's definitely shortstop or centerfield period end of story and with that you then add on the fact that okay he's the fastest runner in the class the kid moves and it's not just he's high school fast. I mean, it's lean. It's twitch. I mean, the kid is always going to be fast. And I think when you stack that up against some of the traits that Justin Crawford had and some of the up-the-middle emphasis that they've had in the past,

I think this kid is a really good fit. And especially because they're so familiar with Trey Turner and how Trey Turner got to who he is today. I know that obviously that didn't happen in the Phillies organization, but you know that type. You know how to get the most out of that type. Now, where does he play? I think he's got a pretty good shot to play shortstop.

He's still really green on the dirt. It's just an average arm, but we've seen average arms at shortstop survive because they've got great range. And so I think he's got a shot to play shortstop, and I don't think he's going to move off shortstop survive because they've got great range and so i think he's got a shot to play shortstop and i don't think he's going to move off shortstop until shoot let's say it's 2026 and trey turner needs to come off shortstop or they have a reason to put a better player at shortstop ahead of him otherwise i think he'll stay at the position he is a guy that i would

circle i think it could be difficult for him to get by teams like the Orioles, teams like the Padres. But if he's there at 27, I think he'd be a fun. I mean, he'd be an exceptional fit for what the Phillies like to do. No, it's awesome. That's good stuff. And then last one here, probably won't go where the Phillies go, but he's been around for a good amount of time. And he's a left-handed hitter from Alabama.

So obviously the Gunnar Henderson comps are being thrown around what do you what do you think about carter johnson see i carter johnson i have a tough one that there are there are people in the draft there are scouts in the draft who think it's the best one of the best hit tools in the class the thing is he didn't really put on very much weight at all this spring i mean he's pretty much the same size um it's still almost exclusively hit over power and with that you start asking the questions of how much power is this kid going to get into and when you couple that with there's enough in the industry that believe carter johnson could be a second baseman well if it's if it's hit over power and it's second base suddenly it's like okay does this guy belong you know in the second round in the first

round where does he really fit i do think if it's if brian and dave do think that he can play shortstop like end of story he might fit at 27 but he's a little bit tougher there aren't a whole lot of front office folks out there that are really just googly eyed over carter johnson at least from my lens the people that i talk to right now interesting uh all right some prep arms i want to get into um there's some talented guys that should be there at 27 which is pretty exciting like william schmidt so like i watch him obviously the stuff does pop you don't see much 12 true 12 sixes anymore like that's that's exciting but like you watch him and it's very max effort to get there whereas it seems like braylon dodie is is

very easy with it ryan sloan even joey oki well guess we'll start with with with schmidt what do you kind of feel about about him yeah he's a tough one like there's some orgs that are in love with william schmidt and frankly with with what the phillies have done in the past with painter and with able he kind of fits that you know it's a lean frame there's more coming which is crazy to say from a kid throwing 99 already right um can you imagine if he was up to 102 like i don't know where does the ceiling end with this kid um my my thing with schmidt is it's definitely a good fast, I don't know where does the ceiling end with this kid. My thing with Schmidt is it's definitely a good fastball. I don't know if it's an elite fastball because there's not a lot of deception, but it is a really good fastball, and it's a hammer breaker.

I mean, it's a big 12-6 breaking ball. There is something of a Walker Bueller projection type in him. But the thing is, does he have a third pitch? Does he have a splitter? Does he have a cutter to get people off the barrel like does he have a third pitch like does he have a splitter does he have a does he have a cutter to get people off the barrel does he have a change up not a lot of people have seen it and when he throws it he throws it once or twice and maybe that's just him dominating a high school league that don't need to throw three pitches um i think there's going to be some teams like atlanta that'll fall in love with it philly that i think would fall in

love with it if they have a plan for how they want to maximize what he can do but you're right man it's it's a it's a weird it's a weird double-edged sword like on one end it's highly projectable and lean and he's going to add weight but on the other end it's like okay but it is kind of an effortful delivery so where does he fall in the risk reward demographic he's a tricky one for me i think he could go anywhere as high as you know 15 or i think you could i you know i podcasted about this last week i think if there was a kid in this class who i believe could end up at school like you know that's the always that's always the conversation who's the highest ranked kid that's going to end up at school i kind of think his lsu commit he could be the guy that

ends up at school but we'll just have to wait and see certainly a phillies type if you go off the able and painter uh mold it seems like and it seems like pj morlando that that's been i know i was texting about pj morlando because you know i i they play these the the circuits a year ago you know so it's 2023 and in those things he looks like juan soto you know with the with the this stretched out you know so it's 2023 and in those things he looks like juan soto you know with this with this stretched out you know thing and whatever but um it seems like he has some signability issues he might be able to get to usc i know you guys had him 39th i believe so um yeah well 41 your last you know rankings thing but he could be one of those guys that you're talking about might end

up going to school and and see if his stock rises in a couple years yeah i mean he's a perfect example like we talked about tommy white we talked about a kid that is pretty much already a first baseman um boy the damage that he did at the combine the batting practice that he had at the combine was absolutely unbelievable i mean it was unbelievable uh it really speaks to what he's capable of doing with a baseball bat he didn't really show it this spring but man you get that kid blocked in and you get him playing organized uh you know affiliated ball where he isn't pitched around maybe that's a that's a kid worth taking a shot on i think it might be the best bat in the class he just never

gets to show it so um i'll be interested to see where pj goes i kind of get the feeling one of these teams with giant bonus pools you know the the diamondbacks or the guardians or the royals or you know one of these teams that have a comp a pick and have a little bit of money to spend uh they might drag him down and take him with their second pick so we'll see yeah interesting uh so back to the the prep arms i'm curious who of them do you think has the like the best fastball you know like projectability wise like heading into the draft who the prep arms you think has the best fastball for me it's it's braylon dodie by by a pretty comfortable margin i mean i've seen that kid throw probably 11 innings at this point i mean he just he just bullies guys like we're talking about a

six foot one inch 205 pound righty pretty unassuming you know doesn't look like william schmidt for example then he steps on the mound and it's just this low slot riding fastball with extremely high spin rates and he just lives at the top of the zone he has excellent command and control um the the popular comparison is lance mccullers. And I know McCullers has been hurt for the last two years, which certainly doesn't do the comp any justice. But you get some of the early years of Lance McCullers out of Braylon Doty, you're talking about a kid that could go to All-Star games. And he's been up to 97.

So I'm a huge Braylon Doty fan. For me, he would be, shoot, I think I have him as the second-ranked high school pitcher in this class. I've got him third behind Cash Mayfield and Cam Caminiti. But, yeah, exceptional fastball, every bit plus, and I think he could end up throwing pretty dang hard. Yeah, he kind of reminded me of Musgrove from watching. Just the mechanics-wise seems pretty easy.

So, yeah, I'm surprised. i feel like he's actually being slept on by a lot of like a lot of the public things i think he's a stud man i think you're right i personally like a one thing man yeah it's the six for one thing like a short kings bro like we we get as a six foot one guy as a six foot one guy could have been me jack i think you're slept on i think you're slept on dude I think you're slept on, dude. If you were 6'3", who knows where your career would be right now? You know what I mean? That's exactly right.

If I was 6'3", who knows where I would be? We wouldn't be doing this. We would not be doing this. There's a lot of 6'4 frauds out there, but the 6'1 kids throwing potatoes, man. That's who you got to look for. Yeah. Know how to pitch.

Know how to pitch. And then Ryan Sloan. Looks like kind of has feel for for multiple pitches maybe the most pitchability i guess of the high school arms what do you think about him i'm a big fan of ryan sloan um he i don't think he necessarily has the you know top of the scale uh upside ceiling that some of the other guys do i think he's more of a Lance Lynn type, which is a good arm. I mean, that's a really good arm for a long time with the Cardinals, with the White Sox, with a number of teams, with Dodgers. So, yeah, you know, I think it's fastball, cutter, slider, curveball.

Everything kind of moves in the same direction. He does have a changeup that he'll kind of sink, but not as much feel for that pitch. If you're looking for the prototype though i mean what is he like six three two twenty five like dude really really fills out a uniform looks like you could throw 220 innings uh a year and just do it for a decade so um if you're looking for that you know if you're looking for a real steady number three who who might not have a whole lot of upward projection in terms of pitch design stuff um ryan sloan might be the first

pitcher from this class to debut yeah that's that's kind of the feel that i got as well just kind of he looks like a pitcher you know it's sometimes it's almost as simple as that um but yeah i mean that's pretty much the the high school arms i mean joey oki probably not going to be there at 27 more in the in the 40s to 60s range, it seems like. You know, I think the most interesting thing about Okie was he wasn't at the combine. And I think whenever you get a kid who doesn't go to the combine, at least for me, and he doesn't do the medical at the combine, my first thought is, does he have a deal with someone under the 75% slot? Like, could he go, let's seattle's number is five at pick 15

and i don't have any info on this i'm just throwing it out there let's say their number is five five million bucks for for pick 15 and they wanted to give him three million bucks to go under slot um and that would only be 60 yeah 60 percent of slot i that that's the first thing that came to mind for me so for me joey oki is either going really high or 27 would be a little rich yeah yeah it's interesting and of course when you start talking about the over slot under slot i can feel people just being so confused about the mlb draft is a very very muddy event if you don't know what if you don't know the way that the numbers work yeah well either way uh thanks so much for your time follow him on twitter uh and follow future star series joe doyle at joe doyle m-i-l-b

last thing before we before we get out of here we mentioned aiden a couple times you know we we're high hopes podcast we are huge aiden miller people went down to wilmington last week to to cheer him on so um are you surprised at surprised at how fast he's kind of risen? I mean, there's some places that have him as a top 25 prospect already. He was drafted last year, was not like the top 10 Max Clark type, but it was 27. I mean, have you been kind of surprised at Aiden Miller's rise here? I've been surprised by a couple of things.

So he was always, him and Colt Emerson were always the two best hitters on the USA Trials showcases like the guys just hit everywhere they hit absolutely everything everywhere um aiden miller when i saw him was always the first thing i always thought was well that's a big body like that's a big kid and he was right-handed so i was like okay is this brady house i'm not sure if this is pretty house like what's this going to turn out to be and so i'm a little bit surprised by him being ranked as high as he is still in a ball as a right-handed hitter but the the second half of that is i'm stunned by how this is always kind of a weird thing to say i'm stunned how good he looks i mean that kid is lean he's strong he hasn't outgrown his frame at this point you know he's still playing uh he's still

playing a good shortstop i'm just i'm stunned that he hasn't turned into the austin riley type of player yet and he still looks pretty trim so um for me he's not in the top 25 he's more in the 35 to 40 range but i i can't fault anybody that has him that high i mean the kid has he's checked every box at everywhere he's gone. Yeah, it's been, it's been exciting. All right, Joe Doyle, enjoy your last week before the draft,

you know, file the manila folder away and when it's over and have yourself a beer, man. Like, yeah, you deserve a beer at the end of this whole thing. All right. I think that the least you can do, you're in the great beer city of Seattle.

So I appreciate the time and we'll talk to you soon. All right, Jack, be good. See ya.