High Hopes: A Phillies Podcast - Ranger Suarez Is Baseball's Most-Underrated Pitcher | 'WIP Daily'

Episode Date: June 28, 2023

Joe Giglio reacts to Ranger Suarez's dominant performance last night and gives his thoughts on a Phillies potential playoff rotation. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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See Kraken.com slash legal slash ca dash pru dash disclaimer for info on Kraken's undertaking to register in Canada. Welcome on in WIP Daily. Joe Giglio with you. I appreciate everyone who subscribes and, of course, downloads this podcast. Of course, our video podcast that we put out quite a few times a week with Tucker Bagley joining me. And today I just really want to talk about something that really changes the Phillies and is in the process of changing the Phillies, and that is Ranger Suarez leveling up. Ranger on Tuesday night in Chicago, outstanding for 7-3.

He's really been outstanding the entire month of June. One of the best months we've seen any Phillies pitcher have in years. But Ranger Suarez, although it's obviously a big difference when he first came back from the forearm injury he had in spring training. And he missed time and he came back in those first few starts. I mean, they threw him out there in Colorado, which was not a an easy start to a season. And then the Diamondbacks game, he really struggled to start his season. And it was like, oh, you know, is this a problem? You know, is he going to recover?

Is he still hurt? What is going on, Ranger? But since then, since he's kind of turned a corner here, Ranger Suarez has been outstanding to the point where I think it changes some of the needs for the Phillies, both short term and long term. It changes how I would approach a playoff rotation if this team was entering the playoffs and actually in it tomorrow. And it also changes, I just think, how the Phillies think about Ranger Suarez and how we should think about Ranger Suarez. So let's just talk about what this guy's done.

So clearly the month of June has been outrageous. He's been one of the best pitchers of baseball, but this isn't just now. So if you go back, you know, 2021 is really when Rangers started to establish themselves as a big part of the Phillies roster. He had been up and down before that. But 2021, primarily out of the bullpen that year, is when Rangers Suarez really started to establish himself. And then obviously the transition back to being a starting pitcher. And then what he did last year and then last year in the postseason where he was kind of a Mr. Everything, starting games but also coming out of the bullpen. We know he was the guy on the mound to finish the NLCS against the San Diego Padres. So you add what he did in 2021, what he did last year in all different phases,

and what he's done so far this season. Guys, over the last two-plus years, two-and-a-half seasons, we're talking about a guy that has now pitched 327 innings to a 2-7-2 ERA. This is as good as a pitcher right now in terms of getting outs, limiting runs, suppressing runs, as you're going to find in baseball. I mean, he's been that good. I can't imagine there are more than 10 or 15 pitchers that have pitched 300 innings over the last three years and have a lower ERA. That's how good Ranger Suarez has been.

He has been a phenomenal pitcher for the Phillies. And it's to the point now where you start to expect. I actually think he's leveled up in terms of his stuff. The curveball he's throwing lately is a really good pitch for him. And it's got kind of that quick, kind know, kind of hard-hitting break. It's not a big swooping curveball. But I think with his other stuff, with his fastball, his changeup, it really keeps batters off balance.

You think it might be the fastball coming out of the hand, and then boom, it's got that little dive. And he's catching the corner. Batters are not ready for it. I really think it's become a significant pitch for him and if he continues to throw it at a high level I think he's going to continue to get batters out at a high level and then you throw in the fact that the guy is unflappable he really is unflappable to the point where you just feel like it doesn't matter the situation it doesn't matter what's

going on he's gonna he's gonna do the job and he's going to go out there without any worry that he's going to blow up. You know, he's had some bad starts this year, obviously, when he first came off the IL, but I think that was more injury related. That was more, you know, the idea that he, you know, just wasn't ready. He just wasn't ready for the moment at that point. And I think it was, you know, at that point, he just wasn't ready to come back. Maybe he came back a little early. That's certainly possible that he came back a little bit early because the team needed him. But since then, I mean, my goodness gracious, the guy's been unbelievable. And it really changes a lot about the Phillies short-term, long-term. So let's attack the short-term and then we'll kind of move to the long-term

with this franchise and what they're going after. So short term, it's clearly about the trade deadline and what they're going to do. And every time the Phillies rotation takes a turn the last two or three times, less and less am I worried about the starting rotation. Less and less am I worried they need to get a starting pitcher of some significance by the deadline. I think they have four starters. And I'm not fully there on Tywon Walker, but I have him as the four. We'll get to that in a second. But they have four starters, and I'm not fully there on Tywon Walker, but I have him as the four. We'll get to that in a second. But they have four starters I think you can count on now

for some semblance of skill, of performance, and certainly giving you depth game to game, start to start, inning to inning. These guys, I think it's pretty rare now. And again, it might be any of these guys. It might be Walker. But, you know, it's going to be pretty rare the rest of the season. I think with those four, if you have a three-inning start where the guy just has to come out of the game,

or a two-inning start, the way it happened with Walker early this season in San Francisco, I think those days are behind everyone. I mean, that's almost never Arenola. It is very rarely Zach Wheeler. Rangers obviously settled in, and Walker is a pretty significant innings guy considering where we are in Major League Baseball

with how many innings pitchers actually pitch. So I think you have a good one, two, three, four in terms of depth, in terms of they're going to pitch a lot of innings, and they're going to protect that fifth guy. And maybe that's where your bullpen games or your Christopher Sanchez games come in. I'm not opposed to the Phillies getting a pitcher. I mean, obviously not.

I mean, who would not want another pitcher for a rotation as you push towards the postseason? So it's not about not wanting another pitcher. I just don't think it's a significant need, and Rangers are a big part of that because, you know, as we kind of fluctuated throughout this season, I think Zach Wheeler has been good, but not quite as good as he was last year. Some of the peripheral numbers on Zach Wheeler are still very good, and I think he'll kind of settle back in to, you know, a low 3 ERA, maybe 3-2 by the end of the season.

Nola hasn't been as good, though. I think he's getting a little bit better, but the length of games is still there. Walker's obviously pitched much better in the month of June. And then there's Ranger, but I think Ranger pitching this well kind of slots everyone in differently, but it's okay. So, like, I'll put it this way. As we looked forward to the trade deadline, it was like, well, Wheeler's a one, but not really pitching like a one.

Nola's a two, pitching like a four. Walker's a four, pitching like a five. And then there's Ranger. So you kind of played out a potential or a hypothetical playoff rotation. It was like, well, like, how are we going to do this? Because these guys aren't pitching to the level that they're needed to pitch at to make this whole thing work. So the frustration, the concern, and the need for a pitcher was clearly there. But if Ranger continues to pitch like this, he's pitching like a number two. I mean, that's – and right now. So if I had a – if the Phillies were going to the playoffs today,

which they're not, and they're still not in a playoff spot, but they are certainly playing good baseball in the month of June and trying to track down the Giants, Dodgers, and Marlins, who have held those top three spots for a little while here. It feels like there's been some hold on that, that those are the three wild cards. But let's say the Phillies are in the playoffs and they had a start tomorrow. It's pretty clear to me how I would do a rotation, and I wouldn't think really twice about it. I would go number one Zach Wheeler.

I still think it's the highest upside arm the Phillies have to where he could pitch seven innings, 12 strikeouts, one walk. I mean, he's got that kind of upside on any given start. The stuff is still there. Yeah, there's been some weird starts this year, but I still think there's good baseball left in Zach Wheeler. Number two would be Ranger Suarez. I mean, I love the idea, too, of mixing the lefty in between Nola and Wheeler

just to give a different look to the opposition. But number two would be Ranger Suarez. I trust him. If Wheeler does go down in a game one, I trust that Ranger would go out there and give me a good start in game two. So you have that aspect of it where, you know, Ranger's just very trustworthy right now. I don't think the order matters. I don't think the opponent matters. You know, he's pitched against a bunch of different kinds of teams so far this year, and he just keeps mowing them down.

And I don't expect that to change as Zach starts against the Nationals this weekend, back at home. So Ranger, my number two starter. You want to argue Ranger won? You can. I'm not ready to take that ball away from Zach Wheeler yet. Number three would be Aaron Nola. And you might say, Nola over Walker?

Yeah, I still don't trust Walker. I think he's more okay than he's very good. And I just think he's the kind of guy that could get blown up in a playoff game. Now, he's going to have to pitch because you're probably going to need four starters in a playoff series. Philly's got away last year with less than that, really, and kind of going with three and a half. But he'd be my four. And I think Nola's pitched a lot better lately. And maybe some of the numbers don't fully appreciate that.

But I think we're trending towards the best of Aaron Nola. Now, by the time you listen to this, he may have gotten hit around in Chicago. But I think Nola's trending in the right direction. And I think by the end of the year, it's going to be more of a, that was an okay or decent or not great Nola season versus a bad Nola season. We know the different Aaron Nola seasons. He's had a couple of outrageous ones, you know, saw young votes, and then he's had a couple of, you know, not so great,

and then the other ones are just in the middle, which is really kind of what his career norms are. So I think there's this up and down always with Nola, but I'll put him as my three right now. Ranger Suarez is my number two pitcher in a playoff rotation. So Ranger's ascension and his leveling up has changed what I believe should be a trade deadline priority. They don't need a big time arm. They don't need a one or two or three. If they get a five, sure. But it's changed things, certainly, with how Dave DeBrowski should approach the trade deadline.

Batter over pitcher. It has changed what I consider and what I will consider the postseason rotation because now I'm bumping Ranger up to number two. And I also think it changes the long-term outlook of the Phillies' rotation and how they make significant decisions into the future. So, you know, if you kind of look forward and project any rotation in baseball two or three years from now, it's pretty hard. Unless you have one of the top 10 to 15 pitchers in baseball locked up on a long-term deal. And we're talking about the Clayton Kershaws.

We're talking about the Garrett Coles. We're talking about those guys, right? Logan Webb, Kevin Gossman. These are the kind of pitchers we're talking about. Logan Webb, Kevin Gossman. These are the kind of pitchers we're talking about. Unless you have one of those guys locked up on a long-term deal, you're almost wary to pencil anyone into a rotation two or three years from now.

So that's where the Phillies are at. They don't really have that. But we're getting to the point now is the Phillies have to make a big decision on Aaron Nola after this season. And they have to make a big decision on Zach Wheeler after next season. Plus, the development and decision they have to make, decisions they have to make a big decision on Zach Wheeler after next season. Plus, the development and decision they have to make, decisions they have to make on Mick Abel, Andrew Painter, and Griff McGarry. I mean, those are gigantic, long-term decisions. Obviously, Tywon Walker, because of his contract, we will now pencil into this.

He's not the kind of pitcher I kind of want to pencil into rotation three years from now, but they gave him a four-year contract. So it's pretty likely he will be in the back of the rotation in some capacity for, you know, X number of years. So you kind of throw his innings and his name in the mix as well. So the Phillies have to make these decisions, right? Like, do they give Aaron Nol this crazy extension? Do they give an extension to Zach Wheeler before he hits free agency?

Do they let both go? Do they pursue something bigger than either in free agency? I mean, Shohei Otani is going to be out there this offseason. You know, do they trade away an Abel or a McGarry for a bat at this deadline and subtract one of the depth pieces from their potential rotation? All that's like, it's all like a puzzle and trying to make it fit together for 2024 and 2025 and 2026. Well, a guy whose name never gets brought up in this as a major part of the future is

Ranger Suarez. I think we've taken for granted how good he's become. I think we've taken for granted how versatile he's been and just how many outs the guy gets. I mean, he's ridiculous. Now, do I think he's quite on the level of Cliff Lee? Someone responded to me last night and said, Johan Santana. No, I don't think so.

I don't think Rangers are going to compete for Cy Youngs, but that's okay. That's okay. If he's a two or three in the rotation for the next handful of years, it's a great outcome for the Phillies, and it also helps them build this thing out. Maybe they're more comfortable trading away a Griff McGarry, a Mick Abel,

to go, I don't know, get a Paul Goldschmidt at the MLB trade deadline. Maybe they're more comfortable saying, you know what, Aaron Nola, it's been great, but we're not paying you $7,175. Maybe. Maybe they're comfortable letting Nola walk, playing out one more year of Zach Wheeler on a really team-friendly deal, which was a great contract by the Phillies and Matt Klintec at that time, and pursuing Julio Urias, who's younger,

to pair with Ranger Suarez and Andrew Painter. That's certainly a possibility. Maybe they will dive into the deep end of Shohei Otani and kind of pencil in Shohei and Ranger and Painter and one more year of Wheeler and kind of play this thing out. The fact that Ranger is continuing over years now to show an incredible ability to do whatever the team asks, pitch in any situation, get outs in any situation, not to mention outrageous defense.

He should have won the gold glove last year. Max Free got it. I think it was an innings thing with Ranger because he missed a time with the back. He's a gold glove defender in the field as well, which always helps. Back to the guys like Mike Busina, Greg Maddox, some great defensive pitchers. It always helps to field your position in any era of baseball. But, man, Ranger against the Cubs was outrageous, and I think him leveling up really changes the Phillies' short and long-term future. Just a tremendous outing last night going into the eighth inning shows how built up he is,

how strong he is right now. I'm loving watching Ranger pitch right now, and I think he brings a very calm demeanor to a team that at times can get a little ahead of their skis in a lot of ways, where they just don't play calm, fundamental, sound, smart baseball. Ranger brings a very calming effect to the mound. And I felt that, you know, in 2021 when he was a reliever, I felt that last year in the postseason in any role he had, he was just the guy you wanted on the mound in big moments. And the Phillies have found something here with this guy. And hopefully they figure out a way to make him a big part of it. He'd be my number two starter in a rotation right now in the playoffs. Thank you for listening to WIP.

I appreciate everyone who subscribes, follows the podcast as I make my way down to C aisle for the JC Kelsey event. Hope to see everyone out there later on, on Wednesday. We will talk tomorrow and of course, 94WIP, the YouTube page. Subscribe, follow there as we do a lot of video podcasts, myself and Tucker Bagley. Thank you so much for listening to WIP Daily.