High Hopes: A Phillies Podcast - The High Hopes Phillies Podcast: I Swear the Offense is Waking Up

Episode Date: May 4, 2018

Jack Fritz is riding solo on this pod as James Seltzer and Jon Marks are sleeping. Jack talks about Arrieta's mechanical struggles, Rhys' swoon and signs of life from this Phillies offense, except with RISP. He also previews a pivitol series against the Nats.  See omnystudio.com/policies/listener for privacy information. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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So go ahead. You can afford to hoard because Ikea is priced for student life. Shop everything you need for back to school at Ikea today. Welcome on in to a solo edition of the High Hopes podcast. That's right. You got Jack Fritz here. Going solo as James Seltzer and John Marks are getting soft on me, and they're going to bed. They didn't want to stay up and talk some Phillies baseball. But as you well know, as you've listened to this podcast,

I can talk Phillies baseball all the time. And I tell you what, it has been a pretty frustrating week, to say the least, to be a Phillies fan, to be a fan of the start of the season. Listen, it's still been a positive start to the season, but it is disheartening losing two of three to the Miami Marlins. I mean, there's no other way to sugarcoat it. They're the worst team in baseball. And I know it's April, but when you have an Arrieta, Nola,

in any series, you expect to go out and win it. And not being able to do that against the Marlins, again, the worst team in baseball, a team that is clearly rebuilding, it's just not what you want from a young team early in the season. Now, obviously, not all hope is lost, but there are some cracks forming in the armor of this early part of the Phillies season. And really, we've got to start with the $75 million man, that is Jake Arrieta. Now, before I go into Jake Arrieta's start against the Marlins, I will say that UDarvish got lit up this week against the Colorado Rockies.

And if you search Cubs Twitter, I mean, they are not too happy with the returns they're getting on the Hugh Darvish investment. And a story came out this week that I found super interesting. Supposedly, late in the offseason, I don't remember when, but Theo Epstein called Jake Arrieta and was like, hey, six years, Jake Arrieta and was like, hey, six years, the same exact deal as Darvish, six years, 120, take it or leave it. And in my eyes, in how I envision this, Jake Arrieta gave him the middle finger, the proverbial middle finger, and said, I'm going to Philly. That's just how I envision it.

Now, is that how it went down? Probably not. But in my mind, that's exactly how it went down. Jake Arrieta told Theo Epstein to basically just F off. So he's here in Philly. And listen, he had a pretty good, strong start to the season. His underlying numbers weren't as good as his ERA. He entered his start against the Marlins with a 1.82 ERA.

But his FIP did suggest, I don't know, I say FIP. Listen, I'll work on it. I'm early. I'll say FIP. For the longest time, I've said FIP. Anyway, his FIP would suggest that he was really pitching at about a 3-3 ERA level, which seemed fair. He wasn't really pitching at a 1.83 ERA number.

The FIP was better, or it was more indicative of Jake Arrieta's beginning of the season. Now, he's been pretty good, but the start against the Marlins and really his start last week were pretty big causes of concern for me because he is not locating his off-speed at all, and he's constantly fighting himself. Now, he has the crossfire motion where, of course, it's hard to always have perfect mechanics at all times, especially at his age. He's always been a guy that kind of figures it out as he goes along and he battles and grinds.

He just has had to grind his way through these last two starts since the Pirates game. He just has, And it's fine. I'm not overreacting. But he's not striking anyone out. Like, Jake Arrieta is not striking anyone out. He was great against the Pirates. He struck out, was it 10?

He struck out 10 against the Pirates. But these last two games, he's not striking anyone out. He's fighting himself against his curveball. The velo has been fine. I'm not worried about the velo. The movement is really good. He did lose some control on his sinker against the Marlins, but

it's more the off-speed that I'm super concerned with because it's two straight starts of him fighting his mechanics and not being able to locate his off-speed. They just don't have the same kind of sharpness that they had against the Pirates in some of the earlier starts. they're just they're looking more Velazquez-ish now like Arietta can get it back to where it's just a hammer uh Vince Velazquez has never shown that

um but right now it just looks like they don't have the same dive to them that they were having earlier in the season uh now he's a a guy that he's a smart pitcher. He'll figure it out. But that Marlins start was pretty disheartening against the worst team in the league. I mean, that's the start that you should go out there and pitch seven innings and just dominate and go from there. I was pretty disappointed in Arrieta. And really, one thing to monitor from Arrieta is the fighting himself with his mechanics

and short-arming his curveball and all that stuff. I would definitely watch out for that going forward. If he can get that back, his fastball location has been fine to me. He did walk more batters against the Marlins, but that happens. That happens with a guy with his mechanics, and it's not one to be superly over-concerned with. My other takeaways from the Marlins series, just continuing to not be able to bring guys in in scoring position. Now, they did a good job of it two nights ago, Wednesday night,

when they won 6-0. They would get guys in scoring position. And Franco had a big late game hit. Altair had a sack fly. Adubo had another single. They did a really good job of closing out a ball game. But the first two nights, they had some opportunities to win a ball game. And the problems with runners in scoring position continue.

And the real struggle here has been Reese Hoskins. And listen, I think the world of Reese Hoskins, I think he's going to be great. But if you studied his minor leagues at all, he was a streaky-ish hitter. And he never really had the ridiculous power that he showed his first two weeks up here. The power seemed to regress just a little bit. He only has four home runs in the season. And he's just not making hard contact right now. And his last at bat last night was really good. It was a really positive sign. Heading into that at bat, he had been 0 for 4 with four Ks. He was wearing the golden sombrero. Gets up there for the fifth time.

Rips the ball right at the middle. And that's what I was saying before the first four at bats. He was pulling off of everything. And Reese has been such a disciplined hitter for his entire career that I was surprised that he was pulling off as much as he was. Ball's in the outside corner. He was

hooking down the third baseline. That is a really, really bad sign. If you are taking a slider on the outside corner and you are so out in front of it that you're pulling it foul down the third baseline, you're just really messed up mechanically wise. And he was doing that. He had done it all Marlins series. He had done it in his first four at-bats on Wednesday night. And then the fifth at-bat, he finally started thinking up the middle, drive the ball to center field, don't try to pull off everything, and get your mechanics back in line. Listen, I'm not going to overreact to a bad week. I mean, he had a bad start when he got called up last year. He started, what was he, 0 for 11 when he got called up. And then he started 0-11 when he got called up.

And then he had a similar rough stretch to end the season. So it's not a major cause for concern. And his last at-bat was very encouraging. But he did come up in some major spots in this Marlins series and just couldn't deliver for this team. And Reese has been in a weird funk for the last three or four games. I think the last at-bat there against the Marlins was positive, and hopefully he can carry it over to a big Washington series.

Just continue to pummel that Washington team. But we'll see. We will see. A doable? I mean, listen, I had to bring up a doable. It's just, you know, he doesn't run out of ball, right? And we spend all week talking about this guy who has been on base in, count it, 32 straight games.

And we've been over the Adubo thing. I don't really feel like getting back into it. He's a very good player that does more good than bad on a baseball field. He's a very good hitter. And, of course, two nights ago, he hit a ball that he thought was going foul, but he didn't fully run out. And, of course, Twitter exploded in terrible adubo takes. But that's beside the point.

The worst part, and the part that is just causing me physical pain, is the fact that this is the longest on-base streak, it's at 32 straight, since Darren Ruff. I don't want to hear Darren Ruff's name anywhere near this team anymore. I don't want to hear it in association with Adubo Herrera. You know, I wish they never showed that graphic. I wish they didn't show that graphic at all. I wish it was scrubbed from the history books. I wish that was scrubbed from the history books, just like I wish that David Bell does not have the last cycle in Philly's

history. I need someone else to hit for the cycle. I need Adubo to get on base more than 34 times, just so that he's ahead of Darren Ruff. I will not sleep until a double or someone on this team has longer than 33 games on base streak to get Darren Ruff's name scrubbed from the record books. That's all I got to say about that. Jorge Alfaro is another guy I've taken away from this Marlins series. Taking better hacks. And we talked about it on the last podcast with James. Jorge Alfaro is a guy who probably has the most power on the team,

just the natural, raw power. He's got clean swing mechanics, all that good stuff. But, man, does he try to hit everything 450 feet. And the frustrating part about Jorge Alfaro is that when he slows everything down and just takes a nice simple hack. Jorge Alfaro is like your golf game. You know, when you try to swing as hard as you can, the ball doesn't go as far as it does when you just take a nice, simple, easy swing. Jorge Alfaro, we all get so frustrated watching Jorge Alfaro because we are watching our golf game in baseball version. That's what Jorge Alfaro brings to the table. Because when

he tries to swing as hard as he can, he's late on everything. He's wrapping his bat behind his head, which if you know anything about hitting, it's just like that you're screwed. You're absolutely screwed at that point. So Jorge Alfaro, when he just slows down, lets everything come to him, thinks up the middle, is a, is a really, really strong hitter. And, and I tweeted this out, which you can follow me at Jack Fritz WIP. I tweeted this out on Monday's game when he hit the first inning homer or second inning homer. His upside is, is freaking absurd because his upside is is that of gary sanchez and i'm not going to say that i think corey alfaro is gary sanchez but i think he can be at least a middleman's gary sanchez with with his absolute hose behind the plate it was on display last night

and i know his his uh throwing out percentage at second base isn't great. But if you watch the games, I mean, his pitchers are doing him absolutely no favors. Jake Arrieta can't hold anyone on base. It's rather frustrating. But Jorge Alfaro, if his pitchers give him a chance, is a machine behind the plate. And his defensive struggles that we heard about whatever which was fake news to the max now he might not be a great guy calling a game but that that takes a long time to develop and worse comes to worse you can just turn to the dugout and they'll give you signs if

they don't trust you calling a game like that was never something that i was worried about at all the defensive thing is have had been fine. He had some early pass balls, but the last couple games he's been really solid, unlike Andrew Knapp. And his receiving has been really, really impressive. He's been stealing a lot of strikes for his pitchers.

Now, I mean, I think he's starting, I think umpires are starting to get a little bit upset with him because if you know anything about umpires, it's like when they know that you're just trying to steal strikes and you're pretty egregiously bringing it in and they view that as like Bush League, Little League stuff, it can actually hurt you. And I think it hurt Afraro like once.

But overall, I mean, he's done a really nice job of not being egregious with bringing balls and strikes in. But I thought he took some really positive ABs this week. I'm very comfortable with Jorge Alfaro facing pitchers that throw 95 and below. Anything above 95, I'm pretty much guaranteed he's striking out against the higher speeds. For some reason, he tries to speed everything up

and it just doesn't work. When he tries to speed everything up, it's very frustrating. However, he had some really, really positive hacks this week. And I'm going to couple Mikel Franco into this Jorge Alfaro discussion. Because I think Mikel has had a really positive series against the Marlins. Obviously, he went 0-5 in one of the games. But good swings on balls. He, but good swings on balls. He's putting good swings on balls.

He's hitting more and more line drives slash pop-ups, which is not great, obviously, but his problem last year was that he was just hitting everything on the ground with absolutely no power. You're starting to see the positive effects of the launch angle movement

with this Phillies team, with Mike Alfranco. I thought he took some really, really positive hacks. Obviously, he had the big late inning hit off the top of the wall, which again, people freaked out like, oh my God, he's not running that ball out. Listen, he thought that ball was going out. He didn't run. It just happens in baseball.

It happens every single day in baseball if you look around the sport and you don't just focus on this Phillies team. But I thought Mike Cal had a good week. And another guy is Aaron Altair. Aaron Altair continues to make hard contact. He lined a ball out center field that could have gone out on a different night. But Aaron Altair is officially the guy in right field for this Phillies team. Nick Williams hasn't played 10 out of the last 11 games.

It seems like he has just pushed out of the rotation. And I think this is exactly what the Phillies want. The Phillies want Aaron Altair in there every single day in right field. They don't want to play Nick Williams. Nick Williams is a guy who strikes out too much, doesn't walk enough, really isn't a good defensive player, and they had to play him early in the season because Aaron Altair was struggling that much.

They just did. I don't think they ever really wanted to play Nick Williams as much as they did at the beginning of this season. I don't believe that at all. I don't think they think he's a very good player. The numbers suggest he's not a very good player, and the eye test doesn't suggest that he's a very good player. And frankly, he should never play over Aaron Altair

unless it's a scheduled rest day. I don't think there should be any platoon in right field. It should be Aaron Altair's job from the jump. And recently, in this last week, he's batting in the 340s. He has skyrocketed from his.86 batting average to begin the season. He's a really plus defender. So Alfaro, Franco, and Altair are starting to show some signs of emerging from their early season funks,

even though Mike Kels wasn't as bad, but he just wasn't getting the playing time. That's one of the nice things, and I don't put nice in quotations, but it allows Mike Kells to play every day with the J.P. Crawford injury and allows Scott Kingery to settle in at the shortstop position.

And unfortunately, it took 98 off the bicep the other night, which sounds horrible. Those guys are making solid contact. Obviously, making solid contact doesn't help the batting average all the time, but it's process over results. And the swings that they're putting on balls have been positive in the last week. And it's been positive mostly for Carlos Santana, too. He's hit a couple balls very far that just haven't gone out to the deepest parts of the ballpark.

He cannot buy a hit right now. So the offense, I think, is starting to slowly crawl out of its early season struggles. Obviously, Reese taking a big step back this week. Like I said, hopefully his last hit back gets him going a little bit. Adubel's been Adubel. Cesar rolls out of bed and gets on base at least two times a game. Really, really starting to see some positive signs from this Phillies lineup. Now it's time for the starting staff to kind of pick up its slack.

Obviously, Vince Velasquez continues to struggle. Really just not fun watching Vince Velasquez at all. Arietta struggled. But their last two starts were very encouraging in this Marlins series. Zach Eflin, I was pretty impressed by what I saw from Zach Eflin. He was hitting between 94 and 96. I think he might have hit 97 once, which was pretty crazy. Now, I know that the guns are a little juiced down there, but that's beside the point.

I thought he had a really nice sink on his fastball. I thought he had simple mechanics. I thought his slider was probably the most impressive pitch I saw out of the night. It was just tumbling away from righties that I thought was going to be really tough to hit. If he can get that going away from righties and then the sinker down and in, that's a pretty lethal combination. I was very impressed by Zach Eflin.

Obviously, he took a perfect game into the sixth inning, which was surprising against any team for Zach Eflin. It's just you don't know what you're going to get from a guy like Zach Eflin. He'll show flashes like two years ago or three years ago when he had two straight complete games in a Phillies uniform, which was just out of nowhere.

And then you see other starts where he just gets lit up. But if he's hitting 95 to 96 with that slider going away to batters, it's just tough for anyone to hit. And I'd rather give Zach Eflin chances than Ben Lively. away to batters it's just it's just tough for anyone to hit so and i i would rather have i'd rather give zach eflin uh chances than like ben lively i'm just kind of done with ben lively like to me he's just tyler cloyd with like four miles an hour more he's just not there's just

nothing interesting about watching ben lively uh obviously we get jared eickhoff back hopefully we can take a take a step back to where he was two years ago. I mean, or was it three years ago at this point? Wow. Because he was a guy that was six innings, less than two runs. He's going to keep you in a ballgame. The coaches are raving about his workouts in the last week. He was showing, I think Gabe literally said he's throwing four miles an hour

harder and his curveball's back. So basically, I mean, if so facto, Jared Eikhoff's going to win the Cy Young. Obviously not. But getting him back, getting Lively out of the rotation, maybe if Eflin can stick around, if Velazquez continues to

scuffle. I mean, on paper, if you can get Arrieta, Nola, Pavetta, Eikhoff, Velasquez, slash Eflin, it's okay on paper. And that can keep you in a pennant race as the summer goes on. But a really, really encouraging Eflin start. Gabe did mention that his AAA numbers weren't really indicative of how well he was pitching. And that seemed to be the case against the Marlins,

at least even though they're basically the equivalent of a AAA team. But yeah, 95, if he can keep that up, keep showing some positive signs in that slider, maybe he'll help you win some ballgames here. It's at least an upgrade over Ben Lively. And then there's Aaron Nola. I mean, my baby. I'm just so proud of the guy that Aaron Nola has turned into.

Aaron Nola is now a top 12 starter in this entire league. And this is going to sound like a spicy take. And, you know, it's a shame that no one is here to argue this take besides me. So that means that I win. But it's my podcast this time. And I can come out and say this take. Aaron Nola is the closest thing to Pedro Martinez since Pedro Martinez. Now, I don't think he's Pedro Martinez.

But the way he pitches, his mechanics, and just the movement on his stuff is the closest I've personally seen to Pedro Martinez. I think him and Scherzer are the best two options at this, but the way Nola's mechanics are, the way they're similar to Pedro Martinez's, and the way his fastball moves like Pedro's did, his changeup, he's now using more and more and generating more swings and misses. He has three above average pitches at this time. Now, obviously, Pedro Martinez had the three best pitches in the entire game. He had the best fastball, the best curveball, and the best changeup. But Nola's pitches truly move just like Pedro Martinez's did.

I was watching Pedro start against the Devil Race today because, I don't know, I was nerding out to some Pedro. Which is like, there's absolutely nothing wrong with nerding out to some Pedro Martinez film. And it was just like, this is what Nola looks like. Obviously, Nola can't reach into his back pocket and pound 99 up in the zone. But it's 96. He was hitting 96 down in Miami with legit two-seam run on it. 96 down in Miami with legit two-seam run on it. And he was flashing a changeup that was diving right out of the zone.

And his curveball has been unhittable since he's gotten into the league. His curveball is elite. His fastball is... It's not elite. It's a tier below elite. And his changeup is is now an above average pitch i don't think he's pedro martinez but this is the closest thing i've seen to pedro since pedro they pitch the exact same way and that's just raising the ceiling on a guy that already has a pretty ridiculous ceiling i i mean i know it's against the marlins i'm not gonna overreact it was not

his best start ever he was fighting his early, but he did settle into a groove where he retired 16 straight Marlins. It was a really, really impressive start. He went to the eighth inning. He didn't get through the eighth inning. He's never gotten through the eighth inning in a start this year, or in a start in his career. He's gotten stronger and stronger.

Like I said, he's a guy that can just roll out of bed and give you seven innings, less than two runs. I love Aaron Nola. He is truly my baby. Now, we're going to go into the trust tree on this episode of High Hopes because this is a personal thing for me. And I'm wondering if anyone else out there is starting to experience the same problems that I'm clearly experiencing with Gabe Kapler. I'm starting to adopt his nicknames. I'm starting to adopt his nicknames in my everyday life. I call Alfaro Alfie. I call Aaron Nolan Knowles. I call Aaron Altair Stretch. I mean, his nicknames, like Mikel is Mikey. I'm starting to take Gabe Kapler's nicknames and use them in my everyday life.

And I don't know if that's a good way to be. I don't know if anyone else is out there. Well, honestly, I probably listen to more Gabe Kapler than most people here because I have to listen to the manager's show. But I'm starting to pick up on his little words. And I don't think I like it very much. I'm caught in a tough spot where I am just now adopting Gabe Kaplerisms. People are going to start looking at me funny.

I'm going to go on the radio and start saying that we have a laser sharp focus on the show tonight. People are going to start being worried. I don't know. If anyone else is out there that's starting to adopt Gabe Kapler-isms, just let me know. So I'm not in this alone. Now, the Phillies are heading up north, a little bit up north, not home to Philadelphia, but they are going to Washington in a very, very interesting early season matchup. The Nationals have moved Bryce Harper into the leadoff role,

and he has responded. I think he's hit a homer in two out of three games at the leadoff position. They are getting Anthony Rendon back this series. They've scuffled. They've struggled at the beginning of the season, but Anthony Rendon's been hurt. Daniel Murphy's been hurt. Victor Robles has been hurt. Adam Eaton's been hurt. Daniel Murphy's been hurt. Victor Robles has been hurt.

Adam Eaton's been hurt. They still have Max Scherzer. They're batting Bryce Harp in the leadoff role. They're obviously a dangerous team. They're still the favorites to win the NL East, although, man, I'm getting pretty nervous about the future of the Braves. I mean, Freeman, Albies, and Acuna is a ridiculous three-man core. But Washington, I still think, is the class of the NL East.

The Phillies head there this weekend. Obviously, they got murdered by the Nationals last year. Hopefully, that trend does not continue. They might get Anthony Rendon back this series. It's not 100% sure, but he's coming back from a toe injury that is subsequently hurting the Washington Nationals and hurting

my fantasy team it's not been fun tomorrow night Nick Pavetta versus Gio Gonzalez Pavetta coming off his worst outing of the season now I don't think it was as bad as as the numbers would suggest. Obviously, Adubo helped him one time that would have stretched a 3-0 lead to a

6-0 lead for the Braves. But, I still saw mostly positive signs from Pavetta. His defense did not help him one bit in his last start, besides, obviously, the Adubo catch. But, Pavetta versus Gio. Gio, great year last year. Obviously, regressing this year because his year last year was just ridiculous.

Uh, and then we have Velasquez versus Roark, which I'm just going to pencil in as an L. Um, not even, might not even watch that game. I already know the outcome of that game before even sitting down to watch it, to be completely honest with you. And then, oh baby, guess what we have on Sunday? On Sunday, we have Jake Arrieta versus Max Scherzer. I mean, this is the second time this year that Jake Arrieta has matched up against a former NL Cy Young winner. Max Scherzer is like, I mean, his eyes are freaky, but he is just unbelievable. He is one of the most underrated players in the entire game. He might be better than Clayton Kershaw, but no one's going to talk about that. Max Scherzer has been a $215 million bargain for the Washington Nationals. He is

tremendous. The Phillies will probably lose that game, but Arietta versus Scherzer is just one to get excited about. The Phillies obviously heading to Washington this weekend. Jake Arietta versus Scherzer is just one to get excited about. The Phillies are obviously heading to Washington this weekend. Jake Arrieta versus Scherzer is the headline matchup. Really, I just truly can't wait to watch that game. I hope Arrieta brings it.

Hopefully we can get some location on his off-speed pitches because, man, it was a struggle against the Miami Marlins. But that's going to do it for this solo episode of the High Hopes podcast. I hope you made it through the whole thing. I mean, I try to be entertaining. Obviously, with James and John here, it's a much more fun show. But I appreciate you guys listening, if you guys listened to the whole thing. As always, please get your reviews in.

We're trying to build this Phillies podcast into the voice of Phillies fans everywhere. And we can only get there with your help. So your reviews go a long way if you love the show uh please leave us for review and hopefully we have some fun prizes coming up with uh with with more reviews and uh obviously subscribe you know just pass the word along high hopes is here two pods a week we're even doing solo pods so you know it's it's an exciting time and uh hopefully they can take two or three from the Washington Nationals this weekend. Because I'll tell you what, Saturday is an absolute L.

Velasquez, he's not winning a ballgame this weekend. That's going to do it for this episode of High Hopes. We will be back on Sunday night, probably James and I. Maybe John. We'll see what's up. But we'll talk to you soon. All-star closer, Kenley Jansen. We have a question. What's the best podcast of all time? Baseball isn't boring, John. We'll see what's up, but we'll talk to you soon. Listen to Baseball Isn't Boring, presented Nothing national daily baseball pod. There is another fact. So jump aboard the BIB Express.

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