High Hopes: A Phillies Podcast - The High Hopes Phillies Podcast: MLB Over/Unders with James Seltzer and Jack Fritz

Episode Date: March 28, 2018

James Seltzer and Jack Fritz go through all the over/unders and make their picks on every team. How many wins will your favorite team have and how about our Phillies. All of that and more on this over/unders edition of the High Hopes podcast.  See omnystudio.com/policies/listener for privacy information. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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you know why because major league baseball is coming back tomorrow we are really excited and myself and jack fritz have been uh james seltzer by the way and Jack Fritz. We have been talking about doing an MLB Over-Unders pod for you. And even though I don't have the time to do this, I might not be able to move out of my house into the new house that we bought in time. So I might actually lose some of my stuff because I'll be stuck in the old house. But I don't even care because I love the High Hopes listeners. I love you people. We're bringing you these Over-Unders actions.

Fritz and I are going to pound through these over-unders to give you some of our best bets and our thoughts on all these as we focus so much on the Phillies. Nice to talk a little Major League Baseball with the season about to get underway. Fritzy, want to go alphabetical here? Yeah, let's go straight down the list. All right.

Well, it starts off with those Arizona Diamondbacks. We will give you best bets at the end as well, but Arizona Diamondbacks coming off a 93-win season over under 85-and-a-half. So I think they're going to regress pretty hard. Like J.D. Martinez, would he have a home run in every single at-bat? Literally. Yes, literally. Only home runs.

They lost that. The humidor is fully in effect. I don't think Robbie Ray is good. I've said that. I don't care what he did last year. It's going to regress so hard this year. I'm out on Robbie Ray. Zach Granke's throwing 84 miles an hour?

85, so let's get this straight, Josh. And he's just so fun. I love Zach Granke because he comes out and he's like, yeah, I might be done. I might just have nothing left. Combined with the humidor, that's going to hurt all of their offensive players. They were an electric offensive team last year. They've been electric for the last couple years.

Brennan Drury's gone. I could not love the under more. I think this is a tough one. I agree they're going to regress. I don't know if they regress by nine or ten games, which they would need to do to get the under eight games. I think this one's really close. I think it's the right number. I think there's another team

in the NL West who I expect to regress more. We'll get to that in a little bit, but for the sake of being different, I'm right at 85-86 for them. I'll take the over, but I don't feel great about it. I agree with you about Ray. Brad Boxberger is a closer. Zach Greinke, yeah, but think on Archie Bradley. Boy, come on, man.

I do love Archie. No Archie Bradley hate on this podcast. But I'm with you. The thing about Greinke is I feel like we've seen this before, and I feel like Greinke will work it back up. He'll be okay. I think the human or short hurts the offense, but hurts any offense coming in there, so I don't think that's much of a mitigating factor.

So I'm going to go over, but just slightly, certainly not a best bet, and I won't fight you on that one. All right, the NL East. First team in the NL East we go to. How about those Ronald Acuna-led Atlanta Braves? The over-under at 74.5. Well, they're not led. He's still down there for two weeks.

Well, they're about to be led. Turned into a $30 million offer in the Kingery. Smart by him. Genius. As we said, I can't believe kingery uh kingery's agent allowed him to sign such an awful deal for the player but you know i know he's a millionaire already and all that crap but he cost himself like 40 million 50 million dollars but whatever no biggie uh or potentially let's say right um but the braves 72 wins last year which was more

than i i remember them getting 74 74.5 is the number. How do you feel about this one? I think the Braves are going to be fun bad. They're one of those teams that's fun bad for the little bit of foreseeable future. I don't see it. I think Ozzy Albies is awesome. I think they have some fun guys. Maybe Dansby, if he takes a step forward, he could be something.

I like Ender Enciarte. One of the most underrated players in baseball. Freddie Freeman was the best hitter in baseball before he got hurt last year. He's a star. Freddie Freeman is awesome. AJ Minter is outside of, I think, my three favorite relievers, no, middle relievers, four favorite middle relievers. Let me guess.

Let me guess. All right, so AJ Minter, Archie Bradley we mentioned josh hater is definitely on the list yes oh man the last one that's the goat it's the one that started this whole move oh andrew miller yeah okay boom how about that i think i think we've talked baseball before uh brandon mccarthy's in their starting rotation it's bad man uh i mean maybe a Sean Newcomb could come out. I don't see it. 74.5 is a little much. Next year, though, I'll be all over the over.

I'm with you 100%. And look, I think you and I have talked about this, but in five years, it's going to be the Braves and the Phillies battling it out for the NL East. Oh, I can't wait. It's going to be fun. But I'm with you. I'm going to take the under here.

I think they get around that 70-72 number again, but I think that the interesting factor here, and we'll get to their over-under. We've got to talk some pills for one second here. We've got some breaking news. What? They traded Ricardo Pinto to the White Sox for international slot money. Hey!

Clint Tech continues with the international slot money movement. I love international slot money. What's so funny is that I'm going to guess 98% of the people listening to this, and obviously I guess it's in hindsight because they'll know that nothing major happened, but I heard you. I'm like, oh, there's real breaking news here. No. International slot money is international slot money.

I know. We've talked about it. I love the market inefficiency of it all. Point being, though, with the NLEs, interesting these numbers and how much they're going to be affected by potentially having by far the worst team in baseball in the division. We'll get to that. All right. Let's get to our first American League team. A team

that can be volatile. Volatile's not the right word. Some people like the way they go. Behind the times? Thank you. That's the word. Some people like the old school approach. We do not. What do you think of those? Baltimore Orioles won 75 last year.

73 is the number. So the struggle with them is that you don't know how they're going to look post-trade deadline. Zach Britton could be gone, even though he's not there to start the season. He could be gone. Brad Brock could be gone. Some guy named Manny Machado might be gone. They could have a major, major sell-off.

Adam Jones could be gone at the deadline. I don't know. It's a pretty clear under in my mind. I feel pretty good about the under. Also, I still like Buck Showalter. He's a great manager. That's the thing with the Orioles. It was making the playoffs a few years ago, but

every year they exceed what I expect them to. I always expect them to be the definitive worst team in the American League East and just crater, and they never do. I'm going to call for it this year. I'm going to take the under. It seems like you're wavering. Well, listen. You're taking the over on me.

That Kevin Gosman. You're going over. That Kevin Gosman breakout is just sitting right there, along with Dylan Bundy. Like it has for the last three years i just think i think 73 wins is just too low i think they're better than that i like this we're disagreeing which i'm a big first time ever on this yeah it's your first time ever in life boston red sox let's take in the american league east 93 games won last year 91 and a half is the number it's a high number it is a high number but i think adding in jd to be there de facto david ortiz makes not only the offense

better but it should make mookie betts better alexander alexander bogarts was was fantastic when he had david ortiz there and then xander i thought it was just xander whatever he had to take a step forward offensively when it was just him and Mookie. Eduardo Nunez, I love him in that lineup. Rafael Devers for a whole year. Ben Intendi. I'm bullish on his team. If Carson Smith can come back to being how dirty he was a couple years ago,

I mean, like, watching him is just waiting for Tommy John to happen. But if he can just stay kind of healthy, they could be pretty good. Tyler Thornburg, Eduardo Rodriguez. The pitching staff is garbage. I hate their pitching staff. Yeah, well, Pomerantz. They've got a bunch of guys who either could be really good or could pitch two games.

I really don't know which way it's going to go. Well, yeah, that helps. I'm with you. I think it's a little low. I'm going to say they win 92-93 games. Not a best bet, but I'm with you. I will take the over here. I think the offense carries them, and I think that them and I think it's a little low. I'm going to say they win 92-93 games. Not a best bet, but I'm with you. I will take the over here. I think the offense carries them, and I think that them and the Yankees.

Part of the reason I have the Orioles as an under is I think the Yankees and Red Sox are going to just own that division. Yeah, but they also will be able to be beat up on the race, who I think are garbage. And I think the Orioles are going to be garbage. And I firmly believe that our eduardo rodriguez is taking a step forward this year yeah that's the exact type jack jack loves the eduardo rodriguez's of the world i do i i like that particular guy i like too but again

i gotta see him stay healthy uh all right uh as we go from uh going like just looking at this and seeing the boston red sox at 91 and a half and the chicago cubs are our next team at this and seeing the Boston Red Sox at 91.5 and the Chicago Cubs are our next team at 94.5 what happened in the last 10 years these used to be the doormats of baseball now that the world champions dominating all that type of stuff it's crazy how things

change and soon we're going to be talking about the Phillies winning multiple world series Chicago Cubs 92 last year 94.5 one of the highest numbers on the board here. What do you think? Yeah, I don't get it. I don't like the Cubs. I think they're going to go under. I think they might win. I think they'll win like 90 games. I don't love their team.

I just don't. I don't love Darvish. I don't love Azz and Russell. They won 92 last year and they go out and get Darvish. I don't like that. I don't like him. I don't like Javi Baez. They added Tyler Chatwood, who we both love. Yeah, in a sense. But he's not in love.

I think he's fine. I would have been happy if the Phillies got him. But whatever. He's okay. Brandon Morrow is their closer, who was great last year. Until Carl Edwards is. Well, we'll see if his arm's ever recovered from a pro season last year, which he was garbage in.

Carl Edwards? Carl Edwards. He was done. Carl Edwards was great last year. He pro season last year, which he was garbage in. Carl Edwards. Carl Edwards. He was done. Carl Edwards was great last year. He was great last year. 12 straight guys per nine. 13 straight guys per nine. I know.

So what are you hating on CJ Edwards for? I love CJ Edwards. But in the postseason, he was done. Yeah. And Joe Maddon kept throwing him out there. Long run. Along with Brandon Morrow. Yeah.

Well, Morrow in the... I mean, I couldn't believe how much he pitched. I think Morrow is not long for the closer roll. Either way, I do think you make a good point. 94.5 is high, and I don't know – What made them get – what did they add? Well, I just told you. They added the number one pitcher on the market.

Yeah, I don't think you – I'm not a Darvish guy. You're a hater. I don't like Darvish. A Darvish hater. But, but, but – I love Jose Quintana. Is that where you're going? I like Quintana, too.

I think he's so underrated. Skinny Kyle Schwarber in – Stealing bases. Ian Happ. Yeah, I love Jose Quintana. Is that where you're going? I like Quintana, too. I think he's so underrated. Skinny Kyle Schwarber. Stealing bases. Ian Happ. Yeah, I love Ian Happ. I'm with you here. I would go just under if I had to bet it, but this would be a stay away from me. I could easily see them winning 95, 96 games.

I just think the Brewers would be a little better. I think the Cardinals would be a little better. So that could be an interesting one there. All right, let's stick in Chi-Town as we go to Chicago. The opposite side of Chicago, the significantly worse team, the Chicago White Sox, won 67 games last year. 68 is the number this year. I'll start this one, Jack. I don't get this at all.

They won 67 games last year, and they are worse. They are, like, blatantly worse. Purposefully worse, you might say. I know it's a really low number. It's hard to take an under that low. I'm going gonna do it i i again probably not a bad bet but i i don't see them winning more games they did last year and they didn't win 68 games last year yeah i'm looking over their depth chart i mean they're bad i mean they're like purposefully going to be bad and they got you know kids and all that that

they're growing but i mean who would they other than jose abray who named a single guy in that line if you can count him. One. You love Yohan Mankata. I know, the upsides through the roof. He could also bat 200. They got no pitching. They got no bullpen. I mean, he's going to be ugly. They could trade Jose Abreu at the deadline, and you don't know what

that team's going to look like. They have some left fielder. I follow baseball pretty closely. I don't know who Delmonico is. Nicky Delmonico! How i don't know who n del monico del monico nicky del monico how do you not know nicky del monica never heard of him or their centerfielder a angle it's adam angle adam angle if you're uh in a uh a deep fantasy league if he is going to be starting the dude stole 40 base in the mires last year 60 a couple years ago someone who could be a nice source of cheap speed for you now luc, Lucas Giolito, my first adopted son,

he's been great this spring. He could be something, but not this year. I don't trust him yet. I'll take the under two pretty handily. Yeah, my money so far, the only one that we've talked about that I would consider putting on my best bets list. I'm trying to find the twins of last year. Not Dwight Tux.

Because last year, their over-under was 14 wins higher than they were the year before and i was like where did that come from in this city yeah hey i might have to hey all right uh let's move on the cincinnati reds another low over-under years they won 68 games last year 73 and a half is the number another kind of how they get in a five gamegame jump here, Jack? They lost Zach Cozart. Like, I don't get it. I mean, their pitching staff is garbage besides Luis Castillo.

Who I really like, but has also pitched 100 innings in the major leagues. I mean, let's not get carried away here, if that. Yeah, Amir Garrett starting in the bullpen, which is weird for them. I don't get that. Why do you not throw that guy out there? He's one of the talented guys you got. I don't see the point. I'm with you.

Why are you still throwing out Homer Bailey? Zero cents. Zero. I hate Adam Duvall with a burning passion. Scott Schlebler? Scotty Schebler. Jesse Winker.

Jesse Winker. Rossiol Iglesias is fun. Lorenzen can maybe take a step forward. Yeah, Peraza could be fun, but there's... This team is not six wins better than last year's team. I think they're right there with the White Sox as one of the worst teams in baseball. I'm going to take that under very easily and even more of a bet. Back-to-back

best bet potential ones here. Alright, moving on to a significantly better team as we jump from 68 wins, 73.5 wins to 94. half wins. Those Cleveland Indians won 102 last year. You want to take this away? Let's start this one.

Look, it's a high number. I'm going over. I am. And I think that the pitching staff is going to be good enough and consistent enough. I think the bullpen is going to be good enough and consistent enough. They won 102 games last year, and they didn't get noticeably worse at any position. I think going from Carlos Santana to Yonder Alonso is a bigger drop-off. It's a bigger drop-off.

That's very fair. That is very fair. But I think Bradley Zimmerl could contribute more this year than he did last year. So I think Francisco Mejia has a chance to come up and make a difference. The best catching prospect in all baseball. He's awesome. He's so good. Top five prospect in the

sport so i think when you look at all look i think it's close i wouldn't make it a best bet but 102 last year i think they can get over to get to 95 or more i wonder i wonder if the pitching staff's gonna take a step backwards without mickey calloway well and also yeah that's a really interesting point and i think tito will be able to wrangle it all together but kind of like what we mentioned with the Miami Marlins effect, I mean, they're going to be three of the worst teams in baseball in this division. I think there's a real chance for the Indians and Twins. And the Twins, I mean, again, we'll get to their over-under and stuff,

and I know they were so much better last year than anyone expected, but it's not like I look at this Twins team, even with the moves they made and say, wow, what a great team. I mean, the Indians, yet again, could be the class of the division pretty handily. No, they will be. When you're looking at the over-under, though, you have to factor in the 22-game win streak last year that got them to 102 wins. So, like, do I see, like, if they don't win 22 straight games,

do they get to 100 wins again? I don't see it, but I would also, I think they're going to win 96 games. Yeah, again, I don't think they're winning wins again. I don't see it, but I think they're going to win 96 games. Again, I don't think they're winning 100 again. I just don't. I do think that when you look at the way the league is stacked up with the really good teams at the top and the... Can we say tanking teams at the bottom? There's a lot of tanking.

A lot of tanking teams, and especially in that division, so I feel pretty good about the over there. Alright, let's get to the team I alluded to before, and it looks like Vegas is kind of where I'm at. 87 games was the number for the Rockies last year. 82 is the over-under, which is really interesting, considering they really only lost

Tyler Chatwood from the team last year. Look, I'm down on the Rockies. I think that they're not going to make the playoffs, as Jack is getting a very important business call coming in here. I'll take that. We're back.

Yeah, I'll cut that one out. Maybe we won't. We'll see. Could be fun. But the Rockies at 82, it was so funny, because before I looked at these, I was all ready to go pound the under on the Rockies, but I don't think they make the playoffs,

but I think they win more than 82 games. I'll take the over just slightly. Yeah, I don't trust the staff, and I think the staff kind of overachieved last year. I think the whole team overachieved. The whole team did, but the bullpen's pretty good. The bullpen! They added Wade Davis, Brian Shaw.

It's a good bullpen. Like, Brian Shaw, a very underrated reliever. Right. Very talented. Jake McGee's good. Adam Otavino is supposedly working on a new pitch that's going to make him hopefully finally realize how good he should be.

He should be in my collection of middle relievers that I love to watch. Why do they bring back Carlos Gonzalez when you can just bring up David Dahl and have him in right field? I don't get it. It's because they're competing in their mind. But even then, David Dahl is a better player right now. But here's the thing. Ian Desmond

was hurt all last year. Never got going in Colorado. I think that's what's going to happen. Either Desmond or Gonzalez. Someone's going to get hurt. David Dahl's going to play. Right, sure. But I'm talking about just, if we're looking at this team this year. Trevor Story didn't get on track last year. He has 30 homerun potential. The offense will be fine per usual.

I mean, Ryan McMahon, I don't know what you think about him, but... I mean, I like him. I don't know when he'll be up, but when he comes up, that's another guy. I'm going to take the over of 82 wins. I am too. I think they're better than the arizona diamond whoa all right well that's all i couldn't be more out a little side bet there uh i'll take the diamond backs you take the rockies who wins more it's our first bet of the podcast which is always fun also a quick note we're not talking juice at all we're not talking vigs these are just straight numbers obviously

you know if you're looking at like a bet like uh i know the phillies juice is up to like minus 160 or something crazy minus 260 on this list so the point being that we're going to obviously take the over on the phillies but it doesn't make a ton of sense to bet on it because of how high the juice is so i don't understand why they won't just adjust the line right and that's what you should do instead of just making the juice insane adjust the line move it, but that's neither here nor there. I think I have seen it at 77.5 some places. I have too. So some people adjust the line regardless.

I should have said that at the top, but we are not factoring in the juice at all with any of these picks. All right, let's get to one of those awful teams, the AL Central I mentioned. Those Detroit Tigers, they won 64 games last year. Did they have to? Well, I mean, let's make this a quick one. 68.5, best bet under. I mean, there's no way they win 68 games last year. Do we have to? Well, I mean, let's make this a quick one. 68 and a half, best bet under. I mean, there's no way they win 68 games.

There's a 0% chance. And I think Miggie's going to have a great year. I think he's going to have a major bounce back year. Jordan Zimmerman, I forgot he was on that team for a second. Remember that contract? You mean their opening day starter? What? Like, has to be the worst opening.

And there's some terrible opening day starters because teams just don't have great aces on their teams and stuff. He's got to be the worst opening. And there are some terrible opening day starters because teams just don't have great aces on their teams and stuff. He's got to be the worst opening day starter. He got so bad so fast. Yeah, like off a cliff. Well, he never had swing and miss stuff. That was the thing with Zimmerman. He was a good pitcher, pitcher contact type of guy,

but was never going to be a double digits per nine strikeout guy, you know? They have Francisco Lir that back in the rotation for some reason anyone ever had more chances because of the ability and the skill level all right so that's one of our best bets i think we can lock that in under for the tigers highest number on the board fritzie and not high enough well deserved they won 101 last year they won the world series last year 96 and a half for the astros i i'm with you it's too low right i mean they're gonna win 104 games they look like we just made in baseball they have all young talent they they had one of

the best offenses in al history last year and their team is still so young so there's a legit chance they can get even better and they traded for garrett cole whether you like the guy or not that's a massive upgrade to that pitching staff that's my third star exactly when you've got verlander and keitel and jared cole it's pretty damn good i'm with you 100 plus they still have talent their minor league system this is a team that if they need something at the deadline they're gonna go get it they showed that last year with the verlander trade yeah i forgot about chris davinsky oh yeah a different type of guy but he's definitely got to be in there one of the one of the more underrated players in baseball, without question. So we both agree with you.

Especially, again, I hate to keep coming back to this, but there really is a sharp divide between the high-end teams and the low-end teams. And you look at that division. The A's are going to suck. The Rangers are going to suck. That's a lot of wins that they can pull out there. And all aboard the George Springer MVP run. Taking George Springer to an MVP.

Well, look, he just won the World Series MVP. Yeah, and he's using the new, it's an axe bat to where the handle is like an axe, not like an actual bat. That's pretty cool, actually. Yeah, it's interesting. It makes your hands looser. I can dig on that.

All right, moving on. And again, I feel like before I was very, very waffly on which way I felt. Another that is going to be one of my best bets. The Royals won 80 games last year, 71 and a half. This couldn't go low enough for me. I think they might be worse than the Tigers. They're going to be an awful baseball team this year.

They might win 60 games. They brought back Mike Moustakas. 65 games. The Royals are going to be terrible. Man, like Alex Gordon, I always forget how big of a prospect he was and how just he was the number one prospect in the sport he's worse than he's a worst offensive player than freddie galvis and that is that is saying which is amazing because he wasn't always i know still who's also an awful awful offensive player they got a bunch of horrible offensive player jorge

soler i mean lucas duda don't have anyone who walks. Like, literally nobody walks in the team. They just swing away. Sal Perez. Like, all of them. Just hack it away, baby. Danny D-U-I in the rotation. Danny D-U-I.

I don't know. Of all the D-U-I stories, that one is one of the – if you haven't – we won't get into it, but look up the Danny Duffy D-U-I story and find out what an a-hole that guy is. Dude, look at how bad this team is. Ian Kennedy is their two. Jason Hamill.

That's what I said. Nathan Karnes. It's a lock to go under 71. This is the all-2011 team that has never moved on from 2011. I will say, of all the best bets so far, this is my favorite bet on the board the Royals under.

All right. This is one of the more interesting ones, and I'm guessing we're going to go the same way with it. I'm actually surprised where it's at. Los Angeles Angels coming off an 80-win season, tooling up a little bit, Jack. 84.5 is the number. Where are you going on this one?

I like what they did this offseason. I think Cozart and Simmons is a really, really strong defensive pair. And let's not forget, even though it was the end of last season, adding Justin Upton is really something that people haven't thought about as much, but was an addition late in the year last year. Ian Kinsler I think is going to have a really nice bounce-back season. He's so underrated. He is. He's been underrated for a long time.

Let's go under runs. Garrett Richards. Your boy. I love Garrett. It's so frustrating because I drafted him really excited last year, and I watched his first start, and I was like, oh, so he's going to win Cy Young. Garrett just like it's so frustrating because I drafted him and really excited last year and he I watched his first start and I was like oh so he's gonna win Cy Young and then the first the fourth inning hit and he blew up his whole arm so um the rotation has a bunch of arms that I love

that hopefully can take a step forward like I love Richards I love Heaney I love Skaggs. If one of those guys hits, I like it. Blake Parker was really good last year. Cam Bedrosian. Come on, man. Yeah, man. Are you kidding me? Steve's kid. Come on.

And I'm not. People are freaking me about Otani. I'm not either. He'll be fine. I don't know if he's going to hit at all, but he'll be a good pitcher. I was never confident in his hitting ability. Me either. I will cautiously.

I'm going to take the over. I am too. I think 86-87 is the number that I have in my head. That's where I expected the confident in his hitting ability. So I will cautiously, I'm going to take the over. I am too. I think 86-87 is the number that I had in my head. That's where I expected the over-under to be. Get Mike Trout in the playoffs, please. Yeah, I mean, you see he didn't strike out in swing training? Yeah, he's getting even better. Well, the thing is, that's the amazing thing about Mike Trout

is that his one issue you could have said a couple years ago is, hey, he strikes out too much. He's like, oh yeah? Screw you. I'll show you he strikes out too much. I like oh yeah screw you i'll show you strikes out too much i'm gonna completely change my game and never strike out what if he doesn't strike out once this year it's gonna happen but no i wish i could bet on that yeah hopefully you can stay healthy i mean missed like what two months last year three months last year uh i could really use that for my fantasy team so i think anyone who owns him would

say the same thing all right let's stick in los Angeles, even though I don't know Los Angeles Angels. Not really in Los Angeles, but the Los Angeles Dodgers are. And coming off a 104-win season last year, which is mind-numbing to think about, down to 96.5. Oh, so I didn't realize there was another as high as the Astros. They are as high as the Astros, 96.5. What do you think? Well, Justin Turner's hurt.

It's not a great start because I love Justin Turner. Austin Barnes and Desmond and Grandol. Full season of that. What? I think they're going to make 95 games. I think they're a smidge worse. Smidge under. I agree.

It's just too high. I know they won 104 last year, but... I think they had a lot go right. I was about to say so many things. Ray Bellinger came up and was the best player in baseball for a month. Chris Taylor has a breakout year. They got a nice year out of Yasiel Puig without any distractions.

All the, you know, Rich Hill comes out of literal death and comes back. I mean, Alex Wood. Alex Wood isn't a 15-1 guy. I mean, come on. That's silly. Corey Seager's already a little banged up. He's still having those back injuries,

which he needs to figure out and suck it up and get out there and play. Yeah, Jock Peterson is still the Antichrist to me. I cannot stand Jock Peterson. Yeah, just the name Jock. J-O-C. What kind of a name is that? Anyway, so we're both on the under.

That went a little closer, though. All right, now the one I mentioned before. Yay. They couldn't make this low enough for me. The Miami Marlins, they won 77 games last year. 64.5 is the number. Jack, they could have made it 54.5, and I'd take the under. I legitimately think this Marlins team is going to lose 100 games this year.

Well, they don't want to win more than 65 games. They want to win between 55 and 60 games. They traded away everybody. I love Justin Boer. I think he's a really fun player. He's going to be great for whoever he's traded to. I love JT Romudo.

He's going to get traded. Louis Brinson. I like Louis Brinson. I don't love Louis Brinson. I like Louis Brinson. I don't love Louis Brinson. I like Louis Brinson. Starling Castro. And Great Spring, Louis Brinson. I've hated Starling Castro. Cam Mabin with his 800th chance. Well, he's back.

He's back in Miami. Of course he is. Who doesn't love a good reunion? Yes. The prodigal son returns. Like, who's their ace? Dan Straley? You remember it was part of that original Cam Mabin?

Yeah. It was Andrew Miller. Yeah, buddy. Andrew Miller. Who would have thought? Like, the staff is just garbage. Jose Urena. Yeah.

No. I mean, this team. It's a best bet under. Yeah. I think we could block that one in there. Derek Dietrich is my least favorite player in baseball. You said that before. It's such a random thing to say.

It's not random. The guy's a D-bag. Pretty random. Look at him. Clearly. All right. I think this, honestly, this might be, if not the most interesting, one of the two or three most interesting numbers on the board to me.

The Milwaukee Brewers win 86 games last year, get better, and 84 and a half is the number. What do you think? It's super fishy. It's really. That's what I mean. I want to be obvious over, but the number, it's what you don't. Jack's a big

the line's talking to him kind of guys talking it's a weird line it's weird I guess they don't believe in Chase Anderson or Zach Davies at all which I guess is fine or Bruce Suter who throws 86 87 miles an hour like it's just weird it's weird like like they all their pitching staff is so uninspiring but they had pretty good numbers last year. Maybe they're buying into Eric Thames batting 180 this spring. He's not even going to play too much, though. Right. But they got better. Like, Christian Yelich is going to be unleashed.

They went on to get Yelich and Kane. Like, that alone has to be worth a win or two for me. I think so. I don't get it either. Jimmy Nelson injury hurts. You know, you don't get him back until June, July. That's an issue. Josh Hader. Come on. That's an issue. Josh Hader.

Come on. That's all you need. I feel like you just win every single game because of Josh Hader. Josh, is there a better one-two punch at the end of a game in the NL than Josh Hader and Corey Knievel? Hmm. I mean, anyone and Kenley Jansen is in the argument obviously because he's kenley jansen i mean kenley jansen for three innings how about that uh but i'm with you no i'm with you it's

read they're there you look down the list are you buying i mean you'd say you'd say potentially uh aj ramos and familia it's not as good stop i just said it's not as good what do you want me to do jesus jack give me a second here. Alright, well, we just mentioned him. You could say Brian Char, Jake McGee, and Wade Davis, and that's somewhat in the discussion. Yeah, I'm out on Wade Davis, though. I know. You're such a hater on me. I'm out on Wade Davis.

All the guy does is be awesome. How about Archie Bradley and Brad Boxberger? No. They have a good punch. It's not the full thing. No, I'm with you. I think Hayter and Gnapple is probably the best. Are you buying Travis Shaw being an all-star? No. Are you buying a Jonathan Villar bounce back?

Yes. Are you buying Domingo Santana? I mean bounce back in the sense that like 260 and 40 steals or something. Are you buying Domingo Santana? If he plays, yeah. I like Domingo Santana. He's a good hitter. I like him too.

Strikes out a lot. He strikes out a ton. I. He's a good hitter. I like him too. Strikes out a lot. He strikes out a ton. I think he's a good power hitter. I was looking at his numbers last year, and they just jump off the screen. But then I'm like, he's just not that good. Yeah, what I'm buying about this Brewers team, as anyone who's ever listened to this show knows, is that they have Christian Yelich, and that means they're going to win. And Lorenzo Cain.

Yeah, buddy. In a better hitting ballpark. All right, moving on. So we both say over there at 84.5, and both feel pretty good about that. Well, we feel good about it, but we don't know why it's so low. Yeah, buddy. In a better hitting ballpark. All right. Moving on. So we both say over there at 84 and a half, and both feel pretty good about that. Well, we feel good about it, but we don't know why it's so low. Yeah, it's just a weird line. So we're cautiously over.

But then again, Vegas put the Phillies at 74 and a half, so what the hell do they know? All right. What the hell do they know? Famous last words about Las Vegas. All right. Moving on. Another interesting number.

We talked about this a little bit before the Minnesota Twins coming off an 85 win season. 82 and a half is the number. And talked about this a little bit before, the Minnesota Twins coming off an 85 win season. 82.5 is the number, and of all the numbers on this board, I feel like this is one of the hardest to choose because I feel like they're going to win any two games. They had a really good offseason. They signed a bunch of guys for not too much money. Under the radar good offseason. Logan Morrison was a good pickup.

Obviously, Lance Lynn. Lance Lynn, of course. Jake Odorizzi. He's fine. But, man, people really treated that like they got an ace. He's their opening day starter somehow. Addison Reed. Get Irv back at some point.

Fernando Rodney, who is still pitching, apparently. He's good. You know what? I have called for the Fernando Rodney, this is the year for six years or whatever now. Like, sure, Rodney's going to be good. Maybe he's an alien. Forever. He'll be shooting arrows on the mountain forever now they did lose jorge palanca for 80 games who had a good second half last year uh i like eddie rosario he's an underrated guy on that squad now

now how how much does byron buxton break out well that's the key and i think this is the year i feel pretty good about it i feel good about the buxton breakout at least from a i don't know if he's gonna hit 300 or anything like that but i think you're looking at a potential 2040 guy and here's the other thing i'll say about minnesota i think paul malder is a really good manager yeah i think he has shown this guy has gotten so much out of so little his entire time in minnesota so they have such a collection of a misfit it doesn't make any sense. I don't get why they win a single game. Miguel Sano, not gonna get suspended. That's a big deal for them, too.

Dozier. Brian Dozier, another one of those guys you never talk about. I can't believe the Dodgers didn't trade for him. Like, I'm speechless. That's what I'm at, speechless. So we're gonna both take the over, but we don't know why. Right? And there's a Paul Mulder vote for me. I'm gonna go the over on Paul Muldder it's such a not forward thinking ish franchise no it's a

really straight i don't get why it works but it's working so they should have traded dozer although i guess the the the package was centered around jose de leon so just got they shouldn't have worked out well they should have stayed um all right uh new york mets i don't i don't get this number at all. This is one of those ones I just said the Minnesota rumor was dead on for me. This is the exact opposite. The Mets won 70 games last year, did absolutely nothing to make their team better, and the number's 81?

This is as stone cold a mortal lock under as I have ever seen in my life. I like the Mets more than you. I don't like them for 82 wins. How did they win? They won 70 last year. Yeah, but I don't know, man. Maybe I'm buying into what Syndergaard did. Of course you are. You always are. Well, Syndergaard, that's fair. Syndergaard. Mets.

Oh, God. Come on. Get through a season healthy and I'll believe in you, Stevie Mets. Matt Harvey is going to be done by the end of April. As always, I have no faith in any of these guys. Zach Wheeler won't even throw a pitch probably. Zach Wheeler, I paid it for you. They did nothing

offensively. They did nothing. They added Todd Frazier. They did nothing offensively. Wait for David Wright to come back. Did they add Adrian Gonzalez too? They did. They signed Adrian Gonzalez to block Dom Smith. So terrible. Yeah, right. Didn't they add like Adrian Gonzalez to it or something? They did. They signed Adrian Gonzalez to block Dom Smith.

So terrible. Yeah. Why bring up your best hitting prospect when you're a team that has no chance? I will say, I do think

Michael Conforto is being very underrated. He's a really good hitter. Michael Conforto. He's being underrated. He's getting better at lefties. I think Conforto

has a good season this year. Regardless, way underrated. I think they winter has a good season this year regardless way under an 81 I think they win 73-74 games I can't I think we've all severely underrated

I hate Yonis Espedes but he played 81 games last year he's a really good hitter I think he's been very underrated if he's healthy but the problem is

he's already got issues all spring his wrist his this that what I will say you mentioned him before what I will say

we just mentioned paul molliter and a paul molliter vote i think micky galloway is gonna be really well imagine if imagine what mick calloway can get out of center guard mats harvey yeah until their arms fall off sure but they might not because yeah because they never have it not because of micky calloway all right moving on uh sticking in new york much more fun 19. Sticking in New York, much more fun. 191 last year. 94.5 for the Yanks. It might be too low. What do you think, Jack?

I don't hate the Yankees. I think they're fun. I know. I hate it. I'm one of those guys, because I'm a baseball or everything else guy. I've always hated the Yankees more than I hate the Cowboys. I don't anymore. It feels wrong in my soul. I hate the yankees more than i had the cowboys i don't anymore and that and it feels wrong in my soul i hate the yankees so much but like like how do you hate

aaron judge like how do you hate gary sanchez how do you hate louis severino i like i i've i own gary sanchez and the fantasy league we're in together and i've never been more excited to have a player on my team like i can't wait for gary sanchez just thinking about like i'm also a baseball above all else and I care about the sport. I want the sport to be healthy. I want it to be great. It's good when the Yankees are good. It's good when the Yankees are good and it's also fun when Giancarlo Stanton

and Aaron Judge are in the same lineup. And Gary Sanchez! What? I know he's a cleanup hitter for Grayson. Gary Sanchez has more home runs than Aaron Judge since they came up together. He hit 33 in 120 games or whatever last year. Are you kidding me? At a catcher.

It's insane. And their bullpen. Chad Green's on my list of middle relievers. Their whole bullpen is. Sorry, that adds five. They have the best bullpen in baseball by far. It's not even close. Chad Green, Tommy Conley, and then you're not even talking about the Chapman and Batances. Robertson. Robertson. It's not even close. Chad Green, Tommy Conley, and then you're not even talking about the

Chapman and Batances. Robertson. Robertson. It is no joke. And look, bullpens are fungible from year to year. It changes volatiles. That's the right use of volatile there. Volatile from year to year. Going into a season, I don't ever remember a bullpin

as well positioned heading into a season as this Yankees. I'm very sad that Greg Bird got hurt. I'm waiting for the Greg Bird breakout. I think he's going to be good. You're always forever waiting for the Greg Bird breakout. They have young Pedro. They have Tanaka, whose arm's definitely not going to get hurt this year. It never does.

It works. For some reason, it never gets hurt. And then Jordan, literally the next Andy Pettit Montgomery. Closing the first step. All right. We'll take the over. We are both taking the over there. The Oakland A's win 75 last year, 74 and asked the number.

I don't think we need to get too much into this. Under? Close. It's the right number. It's right around there. I'm going to go under. I don't feel great about it. I like some of the guys.

I like Matt Olson. I like Matt Chapman. They're guys I like, but I'm going to take the under, but stay away from me. The pitching staff is garbage. I mean, Sean Mania. Kendall Graveman is your opening date starter. I mean, come on. Sean Mania has screwed me for, it feels like a decade now.

Yeah, he stinks. I'm out on Sean Mania. But their offense is sneaky, really, really fun. Piscotti, hopefully he has a nice... Yeah, well, the Piscotti, I mean, that was, the Cardinals did Piscotti a solid. I mean, I think his mother or father was dying. Mother had ALS. So they sent him out there.

So that was a great move for the A's. That was a win. Dustin Fowler in the Yankees trade. We'll see, you know, the upside. Franklin Barreto, brand new Barreto. Jonathan Lucroy. Chris Davis. Matt Olsen.

Matt Chapman. Fun offense, but pitching staff is garbage. Yeah, I'll go under, but it's close. I could see going either way. All right, we will save the team that's next on the alphabetical list for the end. I wondered that could be. Let's move on to Pittsburgh.

The Pittsburgh Pirates won 75 last year. 73 is the number under for me again. I don't like this Pirates team at all. Oh, I like this Pirates team. Why? They're tanking too. They're not really tanking though. Who did they get rid of?

They got rid of Andrew McCutcheon. Andrew McCutcheon. Who I don't think is good anymore. He defined a year last year. I don't care that they moved on. They have talenting too. They're not really tanking though. Who did they get rid of? They got rid of Andrew McCutcheon. Andrew McCutcheon. Who I don't think is good anymore. He defined a year last year. I don't care that they moved on. They have talent there still. Ooh. They have Jameson Tyon.

They have Greg Polanco. Who else? Starling Marte. Oh, yeah. And Marte. Starling Marte. Felipe Rivero. Closer.

I don't care. They have Joe Musgrove. Chad Kuhl. Joe Musgrove sucks ass. So overrated. Colin Moran. Chad Kuhl is so bad. Colin Moran. So overrated. Chad Kuhl is so bad. Colin Moran. Corey Dickerson.

Josh Bell. I like Colin Moran a little bit. I like Josh Bell, actually. He's a good hitter. A full season of Josh Bell. Yeah. Full season of Josh Harrison. Sounds like a 65-win team.

Glass now. Big step forward. Oh, really? In the bullpen. That's going to go well. Yeah. Couldn't even make the rotation. Like, the top prospect in the organization for years.

I just don't. So you're going over. We're going against each other here. I'm going to go over 73 wins. I love this. I can't wait for you to be wrong about this. Even though I don't think it, like 73 is a low number. It's hard to like feel great about going under because there's so much luck involved at times.

But I am going to take. I think Greg Polanco is going to have a really nice bounce back and Starling Marte for a full year. All right. Interesting one here as we move on. The San Diego Padres, 71 last year, 69.5. Jack, what do you think about this one? This is a really interesting number to me. Well, they added Eric Cosmer, who I don't like.

I mean, I think he's fine, but $144 million is insane. Terrible contract, but it will make them a better team. Should. I'm really sad that Denelson Lemaitre got hurt. I was really looking forward to watching him. Clayton Richard is still in their starting rotation, which I think is hilarious to me. Freddie Galvis is there.

How could we ever forget? I am still taking the under. I don't see it. I don't think they're a good team. I don't like anyone on their team offensively besides maybe Jose Perela. The Manuel Margot hate is strong in you. I don't like Manuel Margot at all.

If I like him, he's all right. He can hit a little bit. He's an outstanding fielder. I actually, this is one of those weird ones where I think they win more than 69 and a half games. I don't know why. I think they're going to be a terrific defensive team. I think they're going to play smart baseball, all that type of stuff.

Andy Green. That's what I'm saying. I like Andy Green. I like smart baseball all that type of stuff Andy Green that's what I'm saying I like Andy Green and I like the organizational shift that they made I don't think they're going to be good I think it's like a 70 win team so I'm going to take the over just slightly but I could easily see them at 67-68

alright similar interesting one because of all the injuries a team that looked like they were trying to make a move the San Francisco Giants 64 wins last year over under up to 81 and a half. Why? I don't know.

They got Andrew McCutcheon and I don't know. I have no idea. Evan Longoria, of course. Look, and if you jumped on this before props, because I'm sure the juice has gone the other way after Mad Bum goes down, Jeff Samardzor to start the season. I mean, this is a stone cold under for me. Oh, my God.

I couldn't be more confident in an under in my entire life. Is this yourzor to start the season. I mean, this is a stone cold under for me. Oh my god. I couldn't be more confident in an under in my entire life. Is this your favorite on the board? Yeah. I think, sure. Could these old guys put it together for one more run? Maybe. But with Madbum already hurt, Samardzor already hurt, Mark Melanson. It's an even year, Jack.

It's an even year. I could not care less. I think they're all done. This is the 2012 version of the Phillies all over again. Yeah, I think that's the best bet. That is a stone cold under for me. Alright, granted, Bruce Bochy is so amazing.

Thank God we didn't have a podcast in the 2012. Yeah, right. It would have just been really sad and depressing. Alright, Seattle Mariners won 78 last year, 81.5. It's an interesting number as well. It's always have been good. It would have just been really sad and depressing. All right, Seattle Mariners won 78 last year, 81-and-a-half. It's an interesting number as well. It's always 81-and-a-half. It's like they did.

They're the 81-and-a-half win team. They're the only team to actually find a way to win a half game, which is very impressive. Yeah, they're perpetually in this 81-and-a-half. I would feel more confident if I knew what James Paxton was going to be, if he was going to be healthy for a whole year. He's going to be awesome is what he's going to be. I think Kyle Seeger has a nice bounce back.

People love Mike Zunino. I don't really get it. Dee Gordon. Dee Gordon in center field. I'm going to take the over. I take the over every year. Might as well make it a yearly tradition. 82-83 lock.

Come on. Lock that in. I want to see them in the playoffs. I really like the Mariners, and I want them to be. I mean, they got Ichiro back, so that's a win. Right. That's a win. Cardinals, 83 wins last year, 85 and a half.

That's a tough number for me. Over. I'm buying into the Cardinals like I do. They're too good of an organization to be this down. Jack Flaherty made the rotation. I like Jack Flaherty. I know you do. His name's Jack.

Yeah, well. No, he's a good pitcher. I like his rising fastball, and I think it plays well. Carlos Martinez, always good. His name's Jack. Yeah, well. No, he's a good pitcher. I like his rising fastball, and I think it plays well. Carlos Martinez, always good. Matt Carpenter's supposedly healthy. Colton Wong had a pretty good second half last year. Don't trust Paul DeJong, but I kind of need him in our big league.

And bringing the lead, Marcelo Zuna. I love Marcelo Zuna. Yeah, I'm lukewarm on Zuna. He's a good hitter, but I'm going to go under here. I think they're closer to that 83 number, but I wouldn't bet you about it. I could easily see them winning 87, 88 games, but I'm going to take this slight under. I think that, honestly, 84 was the number I had in my head, 85 and a half is the over-under.

Not buying into Myles Mikolas? I'm not. I don't like him at all. I like Jack Flaherty. Jack Flaherty's a good pitcher. Why did anyone like Myles Mikolas? I don't know. There's a lot of hype around Myles Mikolas.

But I'm with you. And I think the bullpen is going to be an issue for them all season long. Leon is fine. Gregerson, they're going to give that guy the job back. That'll work out great. Dominic Leon's better. Tampa Bay Rays, another surprising number. 180 last year.

77.5 is the number. But they traded their whole team away. They traded their whole team and they're having a four-man rotation, which seems like a horrible idea. And of all teams, whether it's Alexander Cologne, whether it's Chris Archer, whether it's whatever, any asset they have, if I had to bet on a team to trade players away at the deadline, it's that team. Kiermaier, their outfield, I'm looking at it right now,

it's cracking me up. Denard Spann, Kevin Kiermaier, and Carlos Gomez. Malik Smith, they might DH Denard Spann. How about that? Congratulations. He has gray in his beard. Stone cold under. Oh, my God.

I like Nathan Evaldi, but the fact that they went to a four-man rotation, he's one of the four. Elbow inflammation for your boy, Nathan Evaldi. Can never catch a break. That never happens. Why would he ever be hurt? All right. Stone cold under.

Oh, my God. Three more and then the big one to go. The Texas Rangers at 77 and a half. They won 78 last year. I'll bet my life they go under. Oh, same. I'll bet my life. I'm betting on a major Cole Hamels regression.

Everyone here is already talking about how, like, let's bring Cole back. It's going to be great. I think he's closer to being put out to the pasture than being a solid. That's what we call heresy, son. Heresy. That staff is good in 2011. Look at the staff. It's Cole Hamels, Doug Pfister, Matt Moore, Mike Miner.

I like Mike Miner a little bit. I think Mike Miner could be all right. But no. Stone cold under one of our best bets for sure. All right, Blue Jays, 81. I don't get that number at all. 76 last year. Didn't get any better.

I'm going to take the under there as well. Yeah, and they could definitely trade Josh Donaldson, Mark of Estrada. They could blow it up at the deadline. They're looking towards the future without out and out looking towards the future. Although, James, last night, did you see? Vlad Guerrero Jr.? Vlad!

That was so cool. He's awesome. In Montreal, it was very, very cool to see. But I'm with you there. All right, last one on here before we get to the big one. Interesting number here. The Nats won 97 games last year, only 92.5. And a full year of Adam Eaton?

I don't get this at all. I think this is as obvious and over as there is on this list. And a major managerial upgrade. Dave Martino, way better. They got rid of the worst manager in baseball for years. I hate this. I'm happy for Nats fans. They'll go way better. They got rid of the worst manager in baseball for years. I hate this. I'm happy for Nats fans. They'll go way over this.

They'll win maybe close to 100 games, and they'll lose in the first round. It's exactly what's going to happen. I totally agree with you. But the bullpen's better. The bullpen's better, and they still have Scherzer, Strasburg, Geo. They'll be great. They're always good. They'll be fine.

And Bryce Harper in a contract. Bryce Harper in a contract. You're in Adam Eaton again to mention. Spanky Eaton. That guy can play. All right. Let's get to it. It's all that matters.

It says 74 and a half here. Let's go with the 77 and a half as the number for the Philadelphia Phillies. I went on the Phillies roundtable last night with Joe Giglio, Jackford's brainchild, which was a resounding success as far as I'm concerned, mostly because Marks and I killed it. But regardless, I said 88 wins, so way over on this one. We had two callers last night, 90 and 91 wins. To be honest, I came into the show thinking 86.

That was the number I had in my head. I know that you really need 87 to really feel good about a wild card spot. I think they're going to make the playoffs. Mark said 86 and I said, screw it, I'm going 88. 84. That's fair. You know what? 84 is the smart non-homer number. I like that call. Well, I'm objective

as s***. Either way, I think we can definitively say that 77.5, one of our best bet lockovers. The only bet we came out of here with is I got the D-backs win total, you got the Rockies win total. I like that.

That's a fun one. That's one to monitor this year. I like the Pirates over. You didn't like the Pirates over. Okay, we can add that one. But I didn't feel great about that one. Were there any? Oh, the Cardinals, I didn't feel super strong about.

Interesting. We'll find some more bets to make here along the way, but I think we both feel pretty strongly about a few of these ones. I think our best bets, we both think the Reds are a strong under, the White Sox under. We love the Astros over. The Royals under is, I can't even believe it's 71 and a half. That is a lock under for me.

Oh, the Padres we disagreed on a little bit there. You think under, I think it's 71 and a half. That is a lock under for me. Oh, the Padres we disagreed on a little bit there. You think under. I think over at 69 and a half. The Giants at 81 and a half, can we say that's our best bet that that's going to go under? Yeah. There's a 0% chance that works. On the Rangers, I said 77 and a half.

I said I bet my life, so I should go with that one too. Fritzy, any final thoughts? One day away from baseball. Tug McGraw said it best. There is but final thoughts? One day away from baseball. Tug McGraw said it best. There is but one game and that game is baseball. I got nothing to say. That was perfect. Thank you for listening to another edition of High Ops. Fritz, Mark

and I will be all back. Talk some Philly baseball. I actually have games to talk about which we've never had the opportunity to do on the High Ops podcast. At least Major League Baseball games, regular season games are pretty exciting. The Aaron Altair all-star bid starts tomorrow i wish everyone all-star closer kenley jansen we have a question what's the best podcast of all time baseball isn't boring baby i'm rob bradford and every single day i'm sitting down with the biggest names to show you

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