High Hopes: A Phillies Podcast - The High Hopes Phillies Podcast: Reacting to the Jean Segura trade and Corbin Signs With the Nats?

Episode Date: December 4, 2018

Jack Fritz is here with a solo High Hopes as James Seltzer is having a baby! Jack reacts to the Jean Segura trade and the Patrick Corbin-to-the-Nats signing went down right in the middle of the pod so get immediate reaction to that.   See omnystudio.com/policies/listener for privacy information. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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See Uber app for details. This is the High Hopes Podcast. High Hopes. It's a bunch of baseball nerds. Well, without the computers. Talking about the Philadelphia Phillies. On Radio.com and Sports Radio 94 WIP. Welcome on in to a solo edition of the High Hopes Podcast.

It is solo because my co-host, one of my best friends, the guy I love talking fillies with the most, decided to be super selfish and have a baby right in the same time of the Gene Segura trade. So James Seltzer is officially a dad, which is a good thing. I think he's going to be a good dad. Before I break down Gene Segura trade stuff, I'm going to break down Seltzer being a dad.

I think he's going to be a good dad. He's a very fun-loving guy. And congrats to him and his wife, Emily, both very fun people. Again, though, I cannot overstate just how selfish it was of him

to have his baby right as the Gene Segura trade went down. We had talked all off-season about how excited we were to do an emergency podcast. How, when the Phillies made that first big move, how excited we were to do an emergency podcast. How, when the Phillies made that first big move, how excited we are to come into the building

and do an emergency reaction, high hopes. And unfortunately, we weren't able to do an emergency reaction, high hopes, because he messed around and had a kid. So it's super selfish of James Seltzer. But, as always, congratulations to him. Great dude. And hopefully, Zoe, his daughter, is raised right as a Phillies fan. So, we got to get into it.

I know by myself. But I got a lot of takes on what's going on with the Phillies right now. So, first thought is that it was an absolute steal by Matt Klintak to go and get James Pezos. James Pezos is obviously the main part of that deal. As you listen to the High Hopes podcast for however long, you would know that I fancy myself as a James Pezos superfan. And I really did appreciate, I really appreciate yesterday, all of Philly's Twitter finally realizing that James Bezos is a beautiful man.

But no, we're not here to talk about James Bezos. Unfortunately, I would love to do 45 minutes on James Bezos, but we can't do that. So, Gene Segura is here. And again, I think this is an absolute, absolute steal by Matt Klensack. And obviously, if you listen to the podcast, I like Carlos Santana. I like Carlos Santana more than most like Carlos Santana. Me and James both agreed that Carlos Santana was a good player

because Carlos Santana in and of itself, or in and of himself, is a good player. He's a valuable offensive piece that does more to help a team than hurt a team. But when it supplants your best player and it puts your best player in left field, it's not going to work out long term. They couldn't walk into next season thinking that Reese Hoskins was really a viable option in left field again because it was such a disaster last year. Last year was so bad with Hoskins in left field. Now, Santana obviously

was a good offensive piece, but not such a good offensive piece that you can put Hoskins back in left field next year. That's just not a thing. It's not a thing that was going to happen next year. So for him to get out from under the Carlos Santana contract and not have to give up... I like J.P. Crawford. Crawford. I think JP Crawford is maybe a fine player, but in reality, like you're, you're hoping that, that JP Crawford turns into what Gene Segura is now,

maybe a higher OVP, probably a, probably a better glove. But if you watch JP Crawford last year and you came away thinking, I know this guy's going to be a stud. I frankly just don't know what you're watching. Like JP Crawford's bat is just too slow for me. He's got a really, really slow

bat. And for him to be a competent major league player, he's going to need to develop quicker hands. And I just didn't see that last year. And then towards the end of the year, he had this shoulder injury. When I watched him this year, I wanted to be more in on J.P. Crawford

than I actually was. And for them to put in Crawford and have the Mariners, for some reason, still seemed to value him as a top prospect. I thought it was insane. And for them to take back the Carlos Santana contract, I thought it was also insane. And it's just another win by Matt Klintak. For him to get out from under the Carlos Santana contract, attach J.P. Crawford, who we're not sure is going to be a good Major League Baseball player,

get back Gene Segura, and his contract, yeah, it's through 2022, but it's a relatively cheap deal. His contract is relatively cheap. And really, the value he's going to provide on a day-to-day basis is going to be worth giving up maybe the upside of a JP Crawford. I know he's 24, but getting back at Gene Segura, put him at shortstop, he has batted, like I can't overstate this enough, Gene Segura has batted over 300 for the last three seasons,

led the league in hits a couple years ago, gets on base at 340 clip, is not going to walk a lot, but because he doesn't walk a lot, he doesn't strike out a lot. Gene Segura has a 10.9% K rate. He was the fourth hardest guy to strike out in baseball last year. And for the Phillies to add that into the lineup last year, which seemed to strike out an insane clip, that's a big win. And I can't overstate enough, losing Carlos Santana,

it's going to hurt a little bit. And having him and Hoskins in the same lineup is a good thing. If you put Santana as your fourth best offensive piece, if you make him not your cleanup hitter, I think people would like Carlos Santana a lot more. Unfortunately, that just wasn't going to happen here. And with Reese Hoskins in left field, I mean, the defensive run save numbers are just outrageous.

So, it was a deal that had to be made. I am not upset that Carlos Santana's gone. I am not upset that JP Crawford's gone. For them to get back a player like Gene Segura and not have to give up, not having to attach a major pitching prospect

to the entire deal, I don't see how you can view this deal as anything else but a slam-dunk win for Matt Klintzak. Gene Segura is an all-star. He's been an all-star through the last three years. He's a really good player. And yes, I think he's, I want to say maybe two years away from being a full-time second baseman. Jesus Gore, to me, in watching him, kind of looks like a guy that's going to get a little bit chubby. He kind of has that he's in shape now, but once he hits 31, he might start adding a few pounds.

And I could just see him kind of going over to second base. His range won't be the same. Put him at second, and you still have to find shortstop. And maybe that's Kingery in a couple years. I don't want to bank on that just yet because I don't love the idea of Kingery being a full-time shortstop still. But maybe in a couple years, Gene Segura, when he goes over to second base, maybe then Kingery will be good enough to go over to shortstop. So Gene Segura is here.

Also, guys that are here, is Juan Acasio. Now, Juan Acasio, as I'm sure many of you remember, was a waiver claim pickup by the Phillies last year. Came in, pitched a few games, looked pretty good, and they got rid of him a couple days later. Like, he, a very quick stay with the Phillies. But he's a valuable reliever. I mean, he had a 6 ERA last year.

Obviously, that doesn't look great. But he had a 2.99 FIP, and he was outperforming his ERA numbers. If you look at all the peripherals, all that fun stuff. Juan Acasio was outpitching what his ERA was saying. So there's some upside there. He also was battling a knee injury, I think, so wasn't fully healthy, still put up a good fit. His peripherals were all very good.

And again, if you're going to take back $9 million in contract salary and also the Segura deal, which is like $58 million remaining, and you don't have to give up a major, major pitching prospect, I still have to view that as a win. But, obviously, if you listen to this podcast, and you came here for one reason, and that's to learn about James Bezos. Now, very proud of Philly's Twitter yesterday.

James Bezos gets announced, and people find his beautiful mugshot, and with his beautiful mustache and they're all in. And God bless you for being all in because James Bezos is a guy. So I'm sure when you clicked this podcast today, you were like,

I need someone to tell me about James Bezos. And that's what I'm here for. James Bezos, now, I will say, in September last year, he did start to lose a little bit of velocity. His fastball was down to like 90, 91, but he was approaching like 60 games at that point, and he still ended the year on a 2.88 ERA.

And for the first five months of the year before September, he was pitching to a 2.68. So there's something in there. And when I watch him, I see a fastball that jumps out of his hands. And it's at its best, at its peak. It's like 94. Like 94 miles an hour, and it jumps on you. And it's got late life to it and all that good stuff.

But what separates James Pezos is that he's an actual wipeout slider. Like it is a legit wipeout slider. So am I going to come out and say that James Pizzo is amazing? No. But I think at worst he's going to get the Phillies a nice, reliable, lefty reliever. We won't have to. Gone are the days, hopefully, of Adam Morgan.

And honestly, I don't think this is the end for the Phillies. I feel like the Phillies are kind of building up their bullpen in a way that they have to with Gabe Kapler being their manager. I mean up their bullpen in a way that they have to with Gabe Kapler being their manager. I mean, Gabe Kapler's a guy that, as we saw last year, Gabe Kapler wants to use his bullpen in an aggressive manner. And I really think that the Phillies, at their peak next year, they need to go add another number two-ish kind of starter.

And maybe that's Patrick Corbin. Maybe that's someone else. We'll get into that in a little bit. But they need to go add someone that can give them a good seven innings. Because Aaron Nola, day in, day out, is going to give the Phillies a good seven innings. But they need someone else that can do that as well, a reliable number two. I don't think the Phillies can go into next season

relying on Jake Arrieta to be the number two. Or, as much as I love Nick Pavetta, I'm not going to bank on him to develop into a number two. Vince Velasquez, same thing. Eflin, same thing. Even though I think Eflin's going to be traded. But they need to find a reliable number two because I think what Gabe wants to do and what the Phillies want to do is they want to have a reliable enough bullpen where for the first two days or the

first two series of a game you have Nola and you're number two then the three through five starters get them five innings if you can get them five innings then Gabe can be aggressive with his bullpen and putting in pinch hitters the right spot to maximize runs I think the Phillies strategy is to build a superpen, add a number two star this offseason, whether it's Corbin, and get the guys and get the ball to the fifth inning so Gabe can put in pinch hitters and go after some runs and become aggressive. So in adding James Pezos and Juan Acasio, you're making your bullpen better. Right now, the Phillies' bullpen is better.

You have Neres, you have Stranthony, you have Hunter, Neshek. I think they're going to trade Neshek and maybe Hunter. They're both on the table. But you add in Juan Acasio and James Pezos to that, and your bullpen is just better. Right there, instead of having Luis Garcia, you're bringing in Juan Acasio. Instead of having Adam Morgan, you're bringing in James Pezos. And that's just right now. That's right now before the winter meetings have even gotten here.

There's so much more stuff the Phillies have to do with the bullpen, but I think we're going to see them really start to prioritize it because I think they want to be as aggressive as possible in games with Gabe Kapler as their manager. So this is a good strategy for me. I'm happy with where this team is so far. And the other main thing that I like the most about the Gene Segura trade is that it feels like the Phillies as an offensive philosophy

and as a front office are starting to take what the Red Sox, as a front office, are starting to take what the Red Sox, Astros, Rays, Indians, what those teams did from an offensive approach this season and kind of getting away from the launch angle and big strikeout numbers. Because no matter if you value strikeouts or don't think they matter as much, listen, when it's a runner on second, no outs, and you can't move the guy over to third base because you're striking out, and that does nothing. That does absolutely nothing. And for me, I don't mind the launch angle. I think it's added nice breakouts to guys who normally wouldn't have had the ability to

break out. It's led to a bunch of breakouts. But he can't expect everyone to fall into the launch angle movement. And guys like Scott Kingery. I mean, Kingery was on with WIP the other day, and he talked pretty openly about how, you know, the launch angle stuff just wasn't for him and how they changed his approach too much. And he wants to get back to how he used to swing. And I don't like the idea that the Phillies are changing the approaches of guys

who were not normally long-trangle guys. And by adding a Gene Segura, again, does not strike out. Gene Segura, like, he's the fourth hardest guy to strike out in the league last year. He has great back control, will put the ball in play. And drafting a guy like Alec Baum, I mean, Alec Baum hates to strike out. And it feels like they're targeting Michael Brantley,

who was the third hardest guy to strike out last year. Obviously, Harper put up bigger strikeout numbers. But for the most part, the guys they've targeted this offseason, the guys they've targeted in trades, and in their recent draft picks are guys that don't strike out and hate to strike

out. And maybe aren't the crazy, like, G. Segura is not a launch angle guy. G. Segura is just a regular hitter. He is just a pure batsman. And I just think that that is such a, it's so refreshing that the Phillies are not just going down

this, jamming this launch angle thing down your throat. Again, I'm not saying I hate launch angle, but I don't think it has to be a whole team philosophy. We've talked about it many times. We watched the Yankees last year. We watched the Dodgers. And in the postseason, it's easy to get those guys out. For the regular season, launch angle is fine.

And going for home runs is fine because, for the regular season, launch angle is fine, and going for home runs is fine, because for the most part, home runs are going to win ballgames in the regular season. But when it comes to the postseason, it's going to be way, way, way harder for that stuff to translate, because everything's so specialized. You have guys that can come in out of the bullpen, and if they can hit 98 up in the zone, inside, outside, at the numbers or at the letters, that's going to be so hard for guys and teams that Priority has launch angle to catch up to. Because they have a formula for everything in the postseason.

In the regular season, it's fine. You're going to put up all those numbers, and you're going to win a lot of games. But when it comes to the nitty gritty, it is easy to get out launch angle guys in the postseason. And I'm just glad that it seems like the Phillies are changing their approach a little bit from launch angle and slug and all we want is home runs and doubles to guys that can get on base and move runners along and all that stuff. It's really, really good. Now, Gene Segura. My one problem with Gene Segura, and the one thing that's kind of causing me pause,

is that he's 29. He's probably going to be a second baseman soon. And he doesn't really have pop. I know Safeco is not really a home run friendly place. So it's not going to be, like I think he's going to hit 15 plus homers here. My main concern is that what happens in like two years when he starts really starting to age a little bit? Is he just going to be a singles hitter that bats 290, 300 and will have like a 320 OBP? Or is he going to be 280 with a 310 OBP?

Is he going to turn into that kind of guy? Is it going to be a Ben Revere kind of thing where he'd bat 300? But I'm just worried that he's going to turn into just a singles hitter. And if that's a second baseman, fine. I just don't know where the... If that's shortstop, don't believe

in that. If they don't get Machado and there's no other third baseman they move them to third base and then you have a singles hitter at third base that's my one cause for concern but I just think if you're going into next year and you're thinking about adding a Harper you're thinking about adding a major starting pitcher you need to build pieces to win now that's my's been my whole thing. That's why I'm so passionate about them going after a number two starter because, again, you can't walk into next season, you can't plan for a first-round matchup, a division series matchup or wildcard matchup,

and if you don't have Nola going, you cannot walk into that thinking that Arrieta is good enough to win you a postseason game. They need a legit number two. They need a legit number two. And that leads us to Patrick Corbin. Now, today was a bunch of momentum towards what seems like might be a Patrick Corbin deal. And as I'm recording that, Patrick Corbin is going to the Nationals on a six-year deal and I got I gotta be completely honest with you I'm perfectly fine with it I I like Patrick Corbin I was a proud

Patrick Corbin of Fantasyona last year uh after his first start I said welcome to the Patrick Corbin breakout year and he backed me up but man am I glad the Phillies aren't being stupid with their stupid money I was I was very concerned about going into this offseason and being like, wow, he's going to come out and say he has stupid money and all these agents are going to use the Phillies for all their negotiating tactics and the Phillies are going to get played by a bunch of agents and they're going to have to overspend and overpay for everyone. And the fact that they didn't get sucked into a Patrick Corbin deal for six years

and whatever this turns out to be, I don't know the exact numbers right now. I think that is a major win, a major win for the Phillies because he's not worth it. I like Patrick Corbin. He's going to be 30. This is the first year he's really healthy. And there was a dip in the middle of the season where he stopped striking guys out.

His fastball velocity was down. He throws a lot of sliders. Patrick Corbin was not going to be worth whatever the team's going to pay him. The Nationals are going to be paying Patrick Corbin until he's 36. I am totally fine with that. I am good with no Patrick Corbin. I would much rather go after a guy like Madison Bumgarner. And I know Madison Bumgarner is like this voodoo, you know,

why would he go after Madison Bumgarner? He's clearly on the decline. Madison Bumgarner had a dirt bike incident two years ago and took a pinky off the hand last year where it could never totally get right. Madison Bumgarner's a guy who, frankly, I just think is going to age well. He has all the makings of a lefty horse

that's going to pitch well into his mid-30s. Is it going to be as dominant and as ridiculous as Madison Bumgarner was? Probably not. But if I had to bank on one of Corbin or Madbum aging better into their next contract, I'm banking 1,000% on Madison Bumgarner. I know he's at the down years, but I just think that a lot of that had to do with fluke injuries. And I think he's going to be a really good pitcher for a long time.

He doesn't put much wear and tear on his arm. I know he's pitched a lot of innings, but I would rather take a chance on a guy that's pitched over 200 innings and a bunch of innings in the postseason and knows how to do it rather than Patrick Corbin, who just eclipsed 200 innings for the first time in his age 29 season, heading into 30. This was such an outlier season,

and it was right in a contract year, and he pitched all the way through it, and now he's got a major deal from the Nationals. The Nationals have to pay Strasburg's contract, Scherzer's contract, and now Patrick Corbin. There's no way they can pay Bryce Harper. Bryce Harper is definitely leaving, and there's a bunch of industry sources saying that they think Bryce Harper's going back to the Nationals. That's not possible right now. I am glad that John Middleton did not be stupid with his stupid

money I think that is that is the most important thing that I took away from the Patrick Corbin fiasco today where it looked like the Phillies weren't going to get outbid I'm glad they did not just put all their eggs in the court or in the Corbin basket however I think it is very very important that they go out and and get legit No. 2 starter in here, whether it's Mad Bum or somewhere else. Or maybe, listen, I think Morton and Happ could do the job, but it's not a legit No. 2, and both are 35 and 36 years old. They're more stopgaps than anything.

I want them to go and actually get a legitimate No. 2. Because once again, if you're going to go at Bryce Harper, you just traded for Gene Segura, you can't go into next season and expect to try to compete with the guys they have right now as their number two. So I hope the Phillies are thinking about that a lot. So major news, Patrick Corbin will not be a Philly. He will be a National. The National League East is getting more and more talented. The Phillies, who are kind of that sleeping giant.

Make their first move. Gene Segura, good trade. Hoskins back to first. It opens up left field for maybe a Michael Brantley type or an Aaron Altair type. What? Yes. If you didn't think I was going to bring up that Aaron Altair did get tendered and will be back next year.

I mean, you're listening to the wrong podcast. Aaron Altair is back and you're starting left field. I'm just kidding. He probably won't be. But the Phillies have a lot of holes they've got to fill. The Gene Segura trade was a good start. They added bullpens to a bullpen that is going to be used next year.

I talked about it earlier. I think Gabe wants to be aggressive with the use of his pen. And if they can go get a number two, to pair with Aaron Nola, a guy that can get you seven innings and save the bullpen for the rest of the three days, I don't think they'll ever go the opener route, per se. But they will be aggressive in those other days to get offensive in there. And in adding Juan Acasio and James Pezos, you are taking out Adam Morgan.

You are taking out Luis Garcia and adding in legit talent. Now they may go out and get Zach Britton, who I'm now on board with. Hopefully don't get Andrew Miller. Craig Kimbrell, again, don't want big money. But there's guys to be out there. There's deals to be made. It's getting exciting. This is a really quick high hopes.

I want to make sure we did address the Gene Segura stuff because everyone else is getting their stuff out there. I don't want us to be forgotten. And now with the immediate Patrick Corbin news, I think it's perfect. I'm sorry it was a solo high hopes, but I hope that you understand that James Seltzer was literally having a baby as all this was going down. So once James Seltzer is good to go, we might do one Friday. This is going to be a multiple high hopes week. Thanks for listening to the solo High Hopes, and we will talk to you later this week.

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