High Hopes: A Phillies Podcast - The Phillies Are A Mirage | WIP Daily

Episode Date: August 21, 2023

Joe Giglio and Tucker discuss the Phillies recent stretch of up-and-down baseball and wonder what this team is heading into the final stretch of the season. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Whether the action is at the link or the bank, there's never an off day on Broad Street. It's the biggest news of the day, every day, with takes from someone who's never short on them. It's WIP Daily with Joe Giglio. Welcome on in WIP Daily, Joe Giglio with you. Tucker Bagley, of course, with me. He'll be jumping on in a few minutes. And we appreciate everyone who subscribes, follows the podcast, everywhere you get your podcasts, and, of course, our YouTube page right here, the 94.wip YouTube page.

Leave a rating, leave a review for the show, where you get your podcasts. Leave a comment in the section where you leave a review. Tucker and I will jump in. I saw a couple this weekend that we could talk about it and hit on the show. So leave a comment, leave a question, and Tucker and I will hit it on an upcoming episode as we get closer to one of my favorite stretches of the sports calendar, which is the end of August, early September, October,

when football is back and baseball comes down the stretch. And it's a huge series for the Phillies this week. We'll talk a lot about against Gabe Kapler's Giants. And the reason it's such a big series is because the Phillies continue to stumble over themselves over the last week, two and five, their last seven games now after that great week they had, you know, starting with the Trey Turner ovation and the performance they had against the Royals and the Nationals. Great week for the Phillies.

And the schedule was all there for them and more home games than road games. And it looked like they were going to really take charge and maybe pull away significantly from a pretty mediocre field in the NL wildcard race. And then they lose the last two against Minnesota, and they split in Toronto, and they go to Washington before heading to Williamsport for the Little League Classic, and they lose two out of three of the Nats. And really uninspiring fashion on Friday, uninspiring fashion last night,

little comeback in the ninth inning, but not enough when you're down four runs. And the Phillies really have had such a strange season. And I'm at the point now with about seven weeks to go in the year where I'm comfortable saying, I don't know what this team is. I mean, I could look at the standings. I could look at the stats. I could tell you they're 10 games over 500 with a plus 40-something run differential. And you'd say that's pretty good, probably on pace for 86, 87 wins. It's pretty good. And it likely will make the playoffs with the current NL field they're in.

But it's very odd how the Phillies have gotten here. You know, you could break the schedule down any way you want. But if you look at the Phillies' schedule, they were 25-30 through the month of May. They were a poor baseball team the first couple months. And then they went on a blitz for about six weeks and probably had the best record in baseball. They've got the second-best record behind Atlanta. I mean, if you look at the record, it was unbelievable for the next six weeks. That sweep they had in Tampa, Nola throwing a gem on, on July 4th. And then they come home after the all-star break, take three out of four against the Padres. They

win the first one against the Brewers. And they sat there at that moment and they were 27 and 12 over a 39 game stretch. And in fact, I think if you kind of play with the timeline on this a little bit, you can make your own splits, right? You can pick and choose when you want to define their season. But I believe they fell to 25-32 on June 2nd, which means they went 27-10 in a 37-game period from then on out, you know, into the middle of July. Well, since then, since the middle

of July, they're 15 and 15. So however you want to move the numbers around, they were below average for the first couple of months. And then however you want to frame it, they got red hot. I mean, they got super red hot for the month of June into the middle of July. They were as good as any team in baseball. And since then, against what really has been a relatively light schedule, they have played 500 baseball and they have kicked away the chance to really pull away and give themselves an opportunity in the month of September to fully set a playoff rotation. I mean, the Phillies have kind of acted as if they're in the playoffs anyway, and they might be. But they could have had a chance here to treat September like the Braves will treat September. In essence, they could have. If the Phillies played better,

they could have had a seven-game lead on the NL wildcard teams to where they could have treated September with rest, with preparation, with experimenting bullpen or starter for some guys like Ranger, who now is on the the shelf or Lorenzo, whatever. The way the Braves can handle September, the way the Dodgers have handled September's in years past, where they rest guys, phantom IELs, all those kinds of things could have been at the Phillies disposal. And it's not right now.

I mean, we could sit here and say baseball references, 90% for the playoffs. And that's what they say. We go to fan graphs and I'm sure they have them at a very high percentage. And we could talk about the likelihood to make the playoffs, which is very high. But the reality is they're not super penciled in to where they want to be right now. And the reality is the Giants are coming in here. They called up the best left-handed pitching prospect of baseball for Tuesday's game,

and they're trying to come win the series and give themselves a chance to take the number one wild card scene and, of course, home field advantage in the first round. So what I've come to determine with the Phillies and the word I'll use, and I'll throw it to Tucker in a few minutes, give us a word. You know, when I say 2023 Phillies, what's the word that comes to your mind? The word I have is they're a mirage. You think they're something, but they're not really that like early on. If you took the blinders off, you had to say, this is not a very good baseball team. They weren't pitching particularly well.

They weren't hitting particularly well. They didn't run the bases particularly well. They didn't play defense particularly well. It was like, man, they're not a very good baseball team. That was pretty clear. If you were viewing it through less than emotional lens. Well, then guess what? You kind of smudged your glass a little bit and looked up. Actually, maybe they're not bad. They're actually good now. And that might have taken a couple of weeks to accept, but they were. However you want to slice the cake, 27 and 12, 27 and 10, that's remarkable baseball for a period of six weeks. And that's what they were. They were for a blip, but that's a pretty big blip considering October is less than that. And we know what they did last October.

They were dominant. Their pitching was on an incredible roll. They played better defense. They recalibrated their lineup to where they wanted it to be. And all of a sudden, this thing popped for about six weeks. And since then, after they kind of dug themselves out of the mud, they have been very mediocre. And for every game you feel good, there's another one you feel like, ah, I don't know about that. And there's been little cracks here and there. Nola hasn't been very good all season. The bullpen has had like two or three reliable guys and the rest of them very hit or miss, and guys you don't really trust out there, even if they give top for decent innings. The defense has gotten better, but it's still not perfect because Bryce Harper can't play first base every day,

and as we saw Friday, he's still learning to play first base. So there's a lot there. They go on these ridiculous hot and cold streaks, all these hitters, but then collectively they do it as well, where it's like, man, they have a week, although I still may be believing deep down that that week I was out and I was in Disney World, that great week that maybe didn't really happen. I think you guys just made it up and tried to trick me when I got back, but whatever. They have a great week. They all get hot. Castellanos is hot and a bunch of home runs. Trey Turner, who's been relatively hot since the ovation a couple weeks ago,

he gets hot, but then he goes cold. It's been all year. So it's kind of bizarre to watch a team that I think we all look at, and I certainly looked at before the season, and I said on paper, there's 90 wins here. There is. And I think I said 91 before the year. Reese Hoskins goes down. However you want to frame what that meant, what that is,

is that is Reese Hoskins out worth three wins? Maybe. So, okay. So you kind of recalibrate the numbers in your head. But I think we looked at this team and said, they're good. There's no question they're good. And yet every other day we start to question if they're good or not. And this is a major homestand they have right now. Nine games, Giants, Cardinals, and the slumping and kind of really mediocre Angels. None of these teams are very good. The Phillies should be better than all these teams. On paper, they're better than all these teams. Giants are the only one right now that is kind of even with them in terms of record. They're way better than the Cardinals, and they should be way better than the Los Angeles Angels who have just gone to tank

just trading for Giolito and keeping Shohei and trying to go for the playoffs. So one of the advantages the Phillies seemingly had, as we looked at the schedule and you looked at all the different machinations and why they were a very likely playoff team coming out of the All-Star break. One of them was strength of schedule was in their favor. The other one was they had way more home games than road games. Well, those advantages really were concentrated in the month of August. Once we get to September, that's really no longer the case. I do think that the very end of September, if the Phillies desperately need wins just like last year, which they might, is advantageous because they get a lot of Mets, Pirates, Mets,

and the Mets are way worse than anyone anticipated them being when the season began and obviously trade-away shares were in Berliner. But the bulk of the reason that it was very easy to believe in the Phillies in the second half and a bet on them in the second half was schedule is lighter and a lot more home games than road games. Well, after this week, that advantage really dissipates because they have nine home games this week. And I think after that, it's basically dead even. The month of September will be dead even home and road. So they'll catch up. They'll finish out the extra home games this week, which means they need a six-3. The Phillies need a 6-3 on this homestand to kind of erase the 15-15, their last 30, and to make that advantage that was talked about a lot actually meaningful.

And the other thing that will change is the strength of schedule. I think right now, based on today, last time I looked earlier this morning, the Phillies have the 11th toughest strength of schedule left in Major League Baseball. And my guess is when they are done with the Cardinals and the Angels, that will just get more towards top 10, you know, because they're going to face two losing teams in the next nine games at home. So you look to the month of September and there's tougher games in there. They're going to face the Milwaukee Brewers. They're going to face the Braves. You know,

they're going to have teams in the Marlins again. We're right behind them in the wildcard race. They're going to have more difficult teams to face in the month of September. So I think that will dissipate this idea that they have a very easy schedule. They really don't 11th easiest or let's do 11th toughest right now. And then the home and road thing is going to flip as well.

Tucker, the word I would use is, is the Phillies are a mirage. Every time you think you kind of know what you're seeing, you kind of squint again and you don't. What are you feeling after a weekend where crazy comeback Saturday, Trey Turner's two home runs in one inning, which was, I mean, that's rare to see that obviously.

And they win that game, but then they go out last night and they don't do anything. Yeah, it's so weird watching this team because it still feels like at times they have that world series hangover that we kind of attributed their their early season troubles with and you kind of watch them on a day-to-day basis and it's very you know confounding watching them i think that's the word i would probably use because i just don't know what this team is much like you. I, and I think they, they are this team over one 62.

They're missing a big part of the Manila, their lineup in Reese Hoskins. Like you kind of watch them play games like last night. And you think, man, like having him, you know, whether he would be batting,

you know, two, three, four or five on the lineup, just having him in that lineup would make a world of difference for a team that's struggling right now. But I also look at it and, you know,

the two things I thought that carried the Phillies through October last year was their power offensively and the top of their starting rotation. Like they needed what, 11 games to, to get to the world series, you know, to, to run through the national league,

Zach Wheeler, Aaron Nolan, Rangers, Suarez started like eight of those 11 games. And the way those three guys have pitched it and Suarez is on the IL right now, I don't know if I'm necessarily confident in them mowing down opponents like they did a year ago, or are they really, you know, the fact that they didn't have any other starters behind them, besides Kyle Gibson and Noah, Noah, Noah Syndergaard, they were able to ride those three guys and, you know, they kind of ran out of they were able to, to ride those three guys.

And, you know, they kind of ran out of luck at the end, but I don't feel confident riding three, those three guys right now. And you see offensive performances like you saw last night and really much of last week. And I don't really trust this offense to carry them the way they did last year either. I mean, they aren't hitting home runs like they did a year ago. They don't really have anybody in this starting lineup right now with an OPS over 800 like I think Brandon Marsh might still be the only one whose OPS is over 800 and this is a team with five guys in their starting lineup making 20 plus million dollars like that's just not acceptable so even if they do find their way into the postseason which I still

think they will and the way they kind of backed in last year, I think has a lot of people thinking, well, even if they struggle like they did in September a year ago, they'll still find a way. They'll still be able to figure things out. And I think their seven of their last 10 games are against the Mets who have really packed it in. So that certainly helps. But I think if we do get to October, the two things that we pointed to last year and said, well, those are the two keys.

That was the recipe for success. It doesn't exist anymore. Like this is a completely different team than they were last October. They are. And it's funny you mentioned the Hoskins thing. We've talked about it all year. The Phillies rank 14th in home runs as a team. And if you add 20 to their total,

which I think it'd be fair to say Hoskins had about 20 home runs at this one, maybe 22, maybe 18, but he'd be in that range, 20 home runs as a team and if you add 20 to their total which i think it'd be fair to say hoskits had about 20 home runs and this one may be 22 maybe 18 but he'd be in that range 20 home runs they'd be about seventh in home runs which is about where they were last year like a top 10 home run hitting team they they miss him i mean they really they miss reese hoskits he's the kind of guy that maybe last night hits a solo home run in the third inning and then that comeback in the ninth inning is is different because instead of being down four they're down three who knows but yeah i still think the phillies are gonna make the playoffs i have felt all year that it's not as 100 as so many do out there because you know the other teams this wild card race did have a

lot of down over the last month and they're not buried yet like the phillies aren't five or six or seven games clear of everybody else so they're gonna have to fight for this i would guess they're gonna get in because they probably have enough to get in but it has been a weird team tucker calls them confounding i call them a mirage every time you think you know what you're seeing it changes and changes drastically from bad to amazing to average and anything you paint paint for me, if you tell me right now, Joe, the next seven weeks they're going to play really good baseball. They're going to make the playoffs with seven or eight games to spare. They're in. I'd say, all right, you could be right.

And if you tell me they're going to need to go to the final series of the season to get in, I would believe that. And if you tell me in October, they get in another run, they beat the Cubs or the Giants in the first round and they go and they knock off the Braves who they played well. They always seem to play pretty tight with the Braves. It wouldn't shock me. And they're back in the NLCS playing the Dodgers. It wouldn't surprise me at all. But if you tell me they go home in two games in the first round, because the Giants come in here and pitch well, or they have to go to San Francisco and the Giants just outpitched them with openers and gave a million

guys in and out of the bullpen, and they beat them three to two and three to one, that wouldn't surprise me. This season has been so topsy-turvy, and they haven't shown for a long stretch that they're anything more than what you think they are or you don't think they are. They just changed so suddenly. It's been about a month now of very blah baseball. Does it change? Does Homestead get better? Because otherwise that scheduling advantage, it's not going to be there in September for them.

Appreciate everyone watching, subscribing, listening to the show. Leave a comment. Leave a review. Five stars are always the best kind of reviews. But leave whatever you want to say. Tucker and I will take your comment and your question and talk about the show. Appreciate everyone listening and following and subscribing and watching WIP Daily. Thanks.

We'll talk tomorrow.