High Hopes: A Phillies Podcast - The Phillies Are Living Up To The Hype | WIP Daily

Episode Date: May 2, 2024

Joe Giglio discusses how the red-hot Phillies are delivering on their promise of a better start. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Whether the action is at the link or the bank, there's never an off day on Broad Street. It's the biggest news of the day, every day, with takes from someone who's never short on them. It's WIP Daily with Joe Giglio. Welcome on in, WIP Daily, Joe Giglio with you. I appreciate everyone listening, subscribing, following the podcast. Of course, our YouTube feed, 94WIP. Check it out there. I do have a request, small request, for you guys coming up at the end of the podcast today.

So stay tuned for that. But I do want to hit today, a huge game tonight, obviously, Game 6, in the Wells Fargo Center, the Sixers and the Knicks. A ton of reaction tomorrow on the pod, on the show about the Sixers and Knicks. Eagles looking good after the NFL draft. We'll get to a lot of football stuff in the next few weeks and months before training camp. But on my mind this morning for the podcast and for this episode is the Phillies because they are quietly under the radar of the Sixers right now and the recent NFL draft.

The Phillies are living up to the hype. Another win yesterday, 2-1 out in Los Angeles. They go 7-3 on the road trip off day today before they come home to play the Giants this weekend. The Phillies are a damn good baseball team. They really are. And before the season started, I said they would 95 games. I thought they could win the division. I thought this was a team that had the bones of winning the World Series. And I thought they'd get off to the start. In fact, I predicted on the episode, the bold predictions episode of this podcast, I said 21-11 through 32 through May 1st.

That's where they are as they come home now after a really impressive road trip. I mean, that series in Cincinnati was not easy. They go 2-2 in that series, but then they finish it up by sweeping the Padres and then going to Los Angeles against the Angels and winning 2 out of 3. And I'm so impressed because of the completeness of this team.

They can win in different ways. They've won when their hitting is not there. They've won when their hitting is there. Their starting pitching has been there basically the entire season. They're deep to where they have 6 legitimate starters right now. Even if we don't love Tywon Walker and want him to be in the rotation, he could soak up some innings and be a sixth starter. Zach Wheeler, I don't even think he's been himself,

his normal self for his last three starts. You look up right now and Zach Wheeler, you know, just ho-hum. 42 innings pitched in the first month of the season. A 1.91 ERA. A 2.14 adjusted ERA, a 4.33 strikeout to walk ratio, a whip under one, hits per nine under six. The guy's remarkable, and I don't even think he's feeling like he's dominating right now the way he can. So you look up today, Phillies are 21-11, their best opening month of the year since 2011. That's the year they set the franchise record for victories.

They have right now one, two, three, four, five, six regulars hitting at an above average or above average level. Stott, close. The only one that is really in the tank is Castellanos. Rojas has moved his OPS, adjusted OPS to 83 with a 637 OPS. That's probably a line where you could keep him all year because of his defense. There's going to be enough value there. You look at the pitching department, their entire rotation is well above average. They have three starters right now pitching at a dominant level with Wheeler, Suarez, and Nola. Their bullpen, Hoffman, has been remarkable. I think Marte has been very good.

Strom has been remarkable. They've gotten Alvarado back to a level where you feel good after the first little blow-up of the season to start the year. Soto has been decent, even though his ERA is pretty bad. I think he's decent and Kirkering looks like he's really coming on here. And I could think Kirkering is going to take down some big high leverage roles pretty quickly here. They've got everything.

That's not perfect. Again, Castellanos is a mess. At times their defense is still lacking. It's got shortstop. Bryce really hasn't masked yet. Bryce Harper, it's amazing how good Bryce, though, is. He has a 130 adjusted OPS. He's had the one game with three home runs, three total home runs outside of that. He's hitting 233. I don't feel like he's really exploded yet.

And yet he's having a solid year. I mean, he gets hot for a week. All of a sudden he's going to have MVP-ish kind of numbers. And as a team, I thought this was interesting. I saw it this morning. Well, I looked this morning, I should say. So the Phillies have, on offense, their adjusted OPS is 112. As a team, they have all their at-bats.

That includes all the Castellanos at-bats. That includes the 17 at-bats for Christian Pache. It includes the 19 at-bats for Garrett Stubbs. Those guys have taken down, let's say, about 150 at-bats for Christian Pache and includes the 19 at-bats for Garrett Stubbs. Like, those guys have taken down, you know, let's say about 150 at-bats between Stubbs, Pache, Castellanos. Those guys included. Everybody included. Rojas, everyone.

But also including, of course, Boehm, who's been, you know, their best hitter in the month of May, April. Turner, who had a good start to the season. All those guys, okay? Ed Olin. The Phillies are 12% above average as a team. They come in today into play today on Thursday, May 2nd. Team totals, fourth in the league in OPS,

fourth in the league in slugging, fourth in the league in OBP, fourth in the league in batting average, fourth in the league in walks, fourth in the league in stolen bases. Okay, they're number one, the most home runs in the National League right now. They're fifth in triples. They are third in run score, excuse me, third in doubles. No, excuse me, third in hits. I read that wrong. Eighth in run scores. So they have been basically a top five-ish offense in the National League across the board.

Not perfect, but top five-ish. Okay, and that's without a lot of guys really doing big damage yet. They're 12% above average OPS. And you look at the pitching, where they've been excellent in the starting rotation. I mean, they've got a 1.91, a 1.32, a 3.20, a 1.67 ERA. And by the way, that 1.67 is being removed from the rotation. A 3.68, a 1.67 ERA. By the way, that 1.67 is being removed from the rotation. A 3.68 with Sanchez. He's been their worst starter at 3.68 in 29 innings.

And a 2.93 fielding independent pitching. Man. They are, as a staff, and this includes Pinto, who is DFA with a 10.97 ERA. Includes Sir Anthony, who has been pretty rough with a 9.58 ERA. Includes Tyjuan Walker's 8.53 ERA in his one start. It includes everything. Conor Brogdon. Remember when Conor Brogdon got lit up the first week of the season?

It includes him too. All those guys factored in. This team has a 122 adjusted ERA. They have been 22% above league average pitching-wise. So you look at their team that has been 12% above average offensively with the OPS, 22% above average in terms of their adjusted ERA. Here are the list of teams in baseball

who have been 110 or better on both sides, meaning 10% above average offensively, 10% above average pitching for the season so far. The only teams that fit those qualifications with the Phillies, the Yankees, the Braves, the Dodgers, the Guardians. Now, if we set it to the bar, the Phillies are at 112, 122. Who has reached, let's say, at least 112 in each category. Braves, Dodgers, Phillies.

That's it. That is it. And in terms of pitching, of these, this block of teams, you know, the Mariners pitching is unbelievable, and the Red Sox pitch has been really good, but these block of teams, you know, it's, we're talking basically the Braves and the Dodgers and the Phillies.

Like, that's who's performed to where they're both complete on both sides, pitching and the offense. The Phillies have lived up to it. You know, we had a lot of conversation on WIP in Philadelphia about how good this Phillies team could be. Is World Series aspirations fair? And it's interesting because it was a weird first week and a half

to where it was like, see, they did it again. They got off to a slow start again. But then the month played itself out, and they really didn't. They got off to a tremendous start at 21 and 11 they are in play to do everything we wanted them to do and the best part right now is the best players are doing their job right Bryce Harper's doing his job Trey Turner's doing his job Zach Wheeler's doing his job Aaron Knoll is doing his job but they're also getting a lot of contributions nightly from guys that if you're going to be a great team have a great year you need these kind of things like the Alec Boehm breakout is remarkable he's all he

almost has as many walks or strikeouts he's hitting 362 okay Brandon Marsh continuing his his ascension towards being a very good player Rojas the last couple weeks really providing a lot I mean Johan Rojas could have read a lot with the glove if he could be serviceable, which I think at this point, considering he doesn't strike out much, considering his speed on the base pass when he gets on the bases, he has seven steals ready. I mean, Johan Roas is on pace to steal about 35 backs. I mean, 40 backs this year.

To have 40 stolen bases and play that kind of defense, as long as he gets on base around a 300 clip, and he's at 300 right now, he's at the one home run he hit in Anaheim the other night, it's worth keeping the lineup. The only guy that is a major concern is Castellanos. And Castellanos, we know, has months like he just had to where he will just be a nothing,

but then he could heat up a little bit. And I think his track record says he probably will. Schwarber really hasn't gotten fully going yet, but it's probably going to be like last year. And he does have eight home runs. I mean, the guy's going to hit 45 home runs. And it'll probably be like last year in June where he gets really going again. Trey Turner, I think he's had a nice start.

And.336 is a good batting average. I think he's a little bit buoyed by all those infield hits he had early in the season, which is fine. I mean, he gets on base. That's his job is to get on base, especially as a two-hole hitter in this lineup. But if you told me before the season, Joe, 336 and I have a 141 adjusted OPS before the year started,

I would have done jumping jacks. A very nice start for Trey Turner. Bryce's stat really hasn't got going yet, but I think his strikeout toto-walk ratios in line. Stolen bases are there. So I think there's some room for growth for the Phillies. They are going to be a little bit more stable in the bullpen, I believe, with Kirkering moving forward now.

And as I pointed out to start the season and why I thought 21-11 was a distinct possibility, in fact, I said it exactly, they would go 21-11 their first 32 is the schedule. The schedule was not daunting. I mean, this team has been good at home, 10-6, good on the road. Obviously, overall, 21-11. But I look at the schedule now moving forward, San Francisco at home for four,

Toronto at home for two. They go and play a dreadful Miami team down in Miami a couple weekends from now. They play the Mets in a home-and-home for four. The Nationals, three here in Philadelphia, three home against Texas. Then they go to Colorado, San Francisco, St. Louis. Go to Colorado and San Francisco, St. Louis comes in. I mean, you play it out for the next month. I mean, we can make a prediction right now.

Let me look at the total of games here. So I just went over the teams. San Francisco for four at home. Toronto at home for two. At Miami for three. Home and home with the Mets for four. Three at home against Washington. Three at home against Texas.

I'll be at one of those games. At Colorado for three. At San Francisco for three. And then back home for a homestand, which will include Milwaukee in the middle of that, which is fun. But let's just take it to the end of the St. Louis series at home a month from today. So that will take them 28 more games, 28 more games.

I think let's just say they win four of these next six. They win two down in Miami, which is six wins. They split it with the Mets with the 2-2 is eight. Two out of three against Washington is 10. Two out of three, Texas is 12. They win four of the six on the road trip to Colorado and San Francisco. That is 16. And then two out of three against St. Louis is 18. You know, this could be an 18 and 10 kind of run. I'd say over the next

month, 18 and 10. And that would push them to what? 39 and 20, 39 and 21 through their first 60 games. I mean, we're cooking with gas now. I mean, 39 of 60 is what's the winning percentage? That's 65%. I mean, 65% of 162. We're talking about the pace. Yeah, I mean, if the Phillies take care of their business and win what I believe they're going to win, you know, I think this team's going to be continue to win a lot of baseball games. Yeah, like 65% of 162 is a hundred and if they win, if they go 18 and 10 in the next 28 over the next

month, they'll, they'll enter June 3rd on a 105 win pace that the Phillies are living up to it right now. And I think there's a chance they could put more together, play even better. I think Harper will get going even more. I'm very pleased with this team is right now. I think we all should be because they've got a lot going for them. They've taken turns offensively. Who's been hot for a week or two, whether it's Marsh or Boehm, it's probably going to be Harper's turn soon. Obviously Turner was part of that. It was Marsh. It was Turner. It was Boehm. It's going to be Harper's turn soon. It's going to be Schwarber's turn soon. Pitching-wise, they're very deep. I think the bullpen will get even better. I love the

focus they have day-to-day. A 7-3 road trip for the Phillies is rare, guys. I mean, it just is. I don't care who they're playing. You go 7-3 on the road against one team in the Reds, I think, could certainly make the playoffs. One team in the Padres that is certainly decent and the Angels are bad, but that's okay. You know, 7-3, go back and look how many seven and three road trips the Phillies have

had over the past five or six years. It's not many. It just isn't. It's hard to win that many games on the road on a long road trip, you know, especially going out West. I feel like we should really have a big antenna up that the Phillies are past the worry point. They are past the point where you say they're going to get off to a slow start. They're past all of that. They're kind of settling in to what should be an excellent season. They're settling in to what looks to be a legitimate division race. And if you look at the standings, and I pointed this out a couple days ago,

I'll point it out now. So the Braves came in here and won the first two games of the year, opening day, and that Saturday game. And the Phillies won on Sunday. So if you take the standings from the third day of the season on, the Phillies are 21-9 in their last 30 games. The Braves are 18-9. So the Phillies have been just as good, in fact,

better than the Atlanta Braves over the past four weeks, four and a half weeks. They have been the best team in baseball, really. They and, I would say, the Cleveland Guardians have been probably the best

day-to-day baseball teams over that time period. And you're watching a team right now that is up to a plus 27 run differential. And they have a chance to really have another good month because i don't think the teams are facing over the next month are all that great take care of business and we're gonna have a big big summer with this voice and i appreciate

everyone listening subscribing following wip daily we will talk soon and my request for you guys i am running in the e Autism Foundation and the Eagles Autism Challenge race, the 5K coming up on May 18th. I posted the link to donate at my Twitter page. I will post it on Instagram at JoeGilioSports when I get a chance. I will also repost it again on Twitter. If you can donate, I really appreciate anything. It's such a great cause. It means so

much. I've done it every year for the past few years. I love doing it. I run anyway, so it's giving my time really more than the run itself. But anything you could give, $5, $10, anything that obviously within your budget that you could give goes to a great cause. The Eagles Autism Foundation does amazing things. They deserve all our support. I'll be running on May 18th. Again, I'll shoot out that link. If you want to email me directly, joe.julio at odyssey.com,

and I'll send you my page to donate. Appreciate everyone listening, subscribing, following WIP Daily.