High Hopes: A Phillies Podcast - What Should The Phillies Do With Aaron Nola? | WIP Daily

Episode Date: August 17, 2023

After another uninspiring start, Joe Giglio breaks down what the Phillies should do with Aaron in the postseason and the offseason when contract negotiations start up. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Whether the action is at the link or the bank, there's never an off day on Broad Street. It's the biggest news of the day, every day, with takes from someone who's never short on them. It's WIP Daily with Joe Giglio. Welcome on in, WIP Daily, Joe Giglio with you. Appreciate everyone who follows, subscribes, listens to the podcast, every year podcast. Of course, our video feed, subscribes, listens to the podcast. Every year your podcast, of course our video feed 94WIP, the YouTube page. Leave a rating and review

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sports with, of course, the NFL season starting and the Major League Baseball playoffs not that far away. The Phillies, after a win last night in Toronto and the Bats came alive. A couple home runs by Bryce Harper. I see the power come back for Bryce, who has four home runs now in his last 40

plate appearances. That was a big story. The Phillies have outstanding odds to make the playoffs. Baseball reference has been 93.3% to make the postseason right now. So really it's about fine tuning. It's about making sure they are ready for the postseason when they get there. And really it's about setting up their playoff rotation. And that brings us to Aaron Nola, who was on the winning side last night, but Aaron Nola didn't pitch very well. Aaron Nola has not pitched very well all season, and we've been waiting to see is this going to change,

when it's going to change. Aaron Nola now has a 4.5 ADRA through 25 starts. He has allowed a ridiculous amount of home runs, 27 home runs. It is tied now for the most he's ever allowed in a season in his career. He allowed 27 in 2019, but that year he made 34 starts and threw 202 innings. This year, he has made 25 starts and thrown 153 in the third inning. So he is way beyond any sort of home runs he's ever given up in a season. He's allowing 1.6 home runs per nine. It is not good. It is not

good, and I don't see how it's getting better. Last five starts for Aaron Nola, you feel like, oh, maybe there'll be some improvement here. He's allowed 18 runs. He has had starts of four run runs, one, five, five, and three. Aaron Nola's been a major disappointment, and really now the question is, what do the Phillies

do with Aaron Nola, and how do they fix this? I mean, short term, they could give him a breather the way they're giving Tywon Walker a breather right now. They have six starters. They could use this opportunity with a pretty decent lead in the wild card race and, like I mentioned, the pretty significant odds to make the postseason. They could do that. They could give him a breather for a starter to the way they're doing Walker now.

Let's say Walker comes back next week week and they kind of shuffle a new guy to the quote unquote shelf or whatever you want to call it. I mean, it's really just a breathing area for a starting pitcher to just skip a turn or two. The Angels are doing this with Otani. The Phillies with Tywon Walker. If you have either a guy that's a little banged up or a little bit of a surplus of starting pitching, you could do it.

And the Phillies obviously have been afforded some off days here this week where they really could do this and get away with it. They don't have quite as many off days moving forward, but they do have a six-man rotation end every Thursday off for the next five weeks. And then they have four weeks. They have the 24th today, the 17th, 24th, 31st, 7th. So starting today, five straight Thursdays off. You sprinkle in one Monday at the end of September, and you have six more off days this season, along with the six-man rotation. You can do this. Now,

my guess is they're not. Rob Thompson was on with the morning show on WIP last week, and he was really asked specifically about Aaron Nola and the idea of a little break, a breather, put him on the shelf, whatever you want to call it. And he said, unless there is an injury, he wouldn't do that with a guy like Aaron Nola. Now they're doing it with Taiwan Walker. Does that mean there's an injury at Walker? I don't know. But with Nola, it continues to be the same stuff we've seen all year. It continues to be the same issues we've seen all year. Everything across the board is the worst of his career, or at least the worst since maybe he debuted in 2015. I mean, his fielding independent pitching at 4.25 is the worst we've seen out of

him ever in his big league career. His strikeout to walk ratio of 4.10 is the second worst, or excuse me, it's the worst he's had since 2019. Every year, including 2020, 2021 when he wasn't great, 2022 he was outstanding. They're all better than this. You know, he kind of settled into a different level of pitcher starting around 2018. he kind of settled into a different level of pitcher starting around 2018. And, you know, from 2018 to 2022, Noel had a 4.40 strikeout to walk ratio.

It's 4.10 right now. So it's down there as well. It's just, it's a crossword, but it's mostly the home runs. You know, you look at Aaron Noel's whip, you look at the guys he puts on base, his walk rate is certainly higher than it has been in the last few years. Last year was 1.3, year before was 1.9. But he puts on base, his walk rate is certainly higher than it has been in the last two years. Last year was 1.3. The year before was 1.9.

But he's had years, especially the first half of his career, where his walk rate was pretty similar to right now, which is 2.3. It was 2.9. It was 3.6. It was 2.5. It was 2.6. It was 2.4, which is not outrageously great, but it's also not bad. The last two last two years, under 2.0 per nine was outrageously great. So we know the issues. He walks more batters this year than he did last year,

and he allows more home runs. But his hits per nine are not appreciably up. It's similar to where it has been in other years. I don't think he's getting hit so much harder than he has in the past. When guys are on base, Aaron Nola has issues. Really, nothing's changed over the course of the season, except that it hasn't changed. I mean, that really has been the issue here more than anything else.

And for the Phillies, they could put him on the shelf for a little bit. That's certainly possible. I doubt they'll do it. The other option, and I think the more likely one, and probably the better one, is to just cross their fingers that Aaron Nola turns some sort of a corner before we get to October. Because I know there's a lot of machinations, a lot of discussions on the best possible pitching rotation for October for the Phillies. Because we've got to a point now where most people expect the Phillies to make the playoffs. And I think that is certainly more than understandable considering how good they have been

since the beginning of June, the great week they had last week at home when they just beat up on a bunch of bad teams. I mean, they really beat up on a bunch of bad teams last week at home. So they've put themselves in a situation, you factor in the rest of the National League, which right now, other than the Braves and the Dodgers and the one team that will win the NL Central, it's pretty bad. I mean, there's nobody there that should scare the Phillies. The Giants are having major offensive issues right now and only have two healthy starting pitchers.

The Marlins are the Marlins. The Cubs are frisky, but they are what they are. And the Padres, I'm still waiting for it, but it's getting really late for them to turn it on. So the Phillies are in a really good spot to make the playoffs. They're in a really good spot to have home field in the first round. It's about setting up this pitching rotation for the playoffs. And let's start with this. Game one is tomorrow. Zach Wheeler is my starting pitcher. Zach Wheeler gets the ball. I trust him. He has been enormously successful as a Phillies pitcher.

I mean, Zach Wheeler will go down as one of the great signings in Phillies history. He really has been that good. I love the way he's throwing the baseball right now. I love the way he's throwing them most of the year. I think his numbers are not indicative of how well he's actually pitched. His ERA is higher than his fielding independent pitching. His strikeout to walk ratio is very good. Zach Wheeler is outstanding.

And since he got to the Phillies, he's earned the right to be called the race. In a Phillies uniform now for 93 starts. So he'll probably have just about 100 career starts as a Philly when he is done with this season. He currently owns a 3.02 earn run average, a fielding independent pitching of under three, an ERA plus of 139. Wheeler's number one. And then it gets tricky for the Phillies what they do. I know there's an inclination right now, a feeling where it's like, well, you got to start Michael Lorenzen in the playoffs because he just threw a no hitter. I am not totally there yet. I've been very impressed with

Lorenzen against Miami, and last week what he did, I guess the Nationals. He gets the Nationals again on Friday night. If Lorenzen continues to pitch like this, of course I'd give him the ball when October rolls around. But let's just, let's be real about the Michael Lorenzen thing. Number one, I think he's way more of a three or four than he is a one or a two. He's had a good streak right now. He's having a good year. Number two, he's bumping up against his career innings high. I don't know what Michael Lorenz's arm is going to look like when we get to October because he's never pitched this much. And if he continues as a starter, he's going to rack up a lot more innings than he ever has. Number three, he has significant experience in the bullpen. And as I try to

construct the best possible Phillies rotation and Phillies pitching staff for October, and I think we've seen this now over the past three, four, five years, where teams have stopped thinking about the playoff pitching staff, like the regular season pitching staff, and just think of it as, staff like the regular season pitching staff and just think of it as who are my best 12 arms? Who are the best 12 arms I could put out on my staff and then give Rob Thompson, give my manager the opportunity to use those guys as he sees fit. Like last year was Zach Eflin. Last year was Ranger Suarez. Swing guys that could move around, that could do different things. That is where I think it is immensely important to have guys that are capable of doing. And, of course, Lorenzen provides that. You know, Ranger Suarez and Michael Lorenzen provide something

that I think the Phillies need in their bullpen in October. Another arm that could obviously get big outs. Because I think this bullpen, although it's been relatively good after the first week of the season and they've had some nice moments and they've had good runs. How many of these guys do you really trust to get outs in October? Alvarado, seemingly due back soon. That will help. Kimbrel, of course. I don't trust Sir Anthony right now. I know he's gonna be part of this thing. I don't really trust him right now. Jeff Hoffman, Marte's back at AAA. I mean, they've had guys in and out. I mean, Dillard Covey's got one of their best ERAs the last couple months.

You want him getting big outs in October? Obviously not. So they need another arm down there that could get big outs for them. I think it could be Ranger. I think it could be Lorenzen. Tywin Walker's got a dead arm right now. So you start kind of chopping down the whole thing here and what it looks like. I still need Nola in my pitching rotation in October.

I know right now that probably sounds ridiculous, but as I look forward, which guys on this team are the most capable, not likely, but most capable in October after going through the regular season of giving me six or seven quality innings? Zach Wheeler, obviously. You could say Lorenzen, but I'm not sure because of the innings limit. You could say Ranger, but I think he's been more okay than really good this year. And then you say Aaron Nola. I'd rather have Aaron Nola on the mound way more than Tywon Walker. I think Walker has a lot of smoke and mirrors. He has good starts, but then he has starts. He walks six guys. I don't trust him. He has a history of falling off in the second half.

The Phillies path back to the world series involves Aaron Nola atop the rotation with Zach Wheeler. That's got to be the goal for the next five weeks of Phillies baseball. Help Aaron Nola get in, in whatever best groove he could get in. Stop missing over the middle of plate. Stop allowing home runs. Like they're going out of style, and get him ready for October. Because a Phillies pitching staff without Aaron Nolan in the rotation,

and we have no evidence he'd come out of the bullpen, so you'd almost be putting him away, like saying you're not part of the playoff rotation. There's no way you could construct the Phillies' best 12 pitchers right now and say, Joe, Aaron Nolan's not part of that. I'm not taking him to October. Because I think if you do that, you are weakening your bullpen because that means both Ranger and Lorenzen have to be in the rotation. But let's just say you take Aaron Nola away.

You'd probably go Wheeler, Lorenzen, Suarez in the three-game series in the wildcard round. You wouldn't put Walker out there because he's struggling right now. Sanchez, obviously not. And then Nola, if you don't want to do that. Well, okay, then nobody from this rotation is helping in the bullpen where I think you do need help, where I think you do need someone that could go down there and get a couple outs late in the game. So I think it is really important that Aaron Nola is still part of this postseason rotation. And I would still do it. Like if you told me right now, I had to put the, I had to write the playoff rotation down right now. I would go number one, Zach Wheeler. Number two, I'd probably hand the ball to Ranger

because I just think he's got moxie. Number three, I would go Aaron Nola. And then I would put Michael Lorenzen. I know he's coming. I mean, I realize he's coming off a no-hitter and an incredible performance in Miami before that. I would put him in the bullpen because he has the experience doing it.

He is bumping up against an innings limit. And I think he could help in the bullpen a lot in October. Again, this is for October, not now, not today, not tomorrow. I'm talking about a playoff rotation for the Phillies because as we play this out, they're probably going to make the playoffs. They're in a great spot percentage-wise. They're in a great spot situationally. They don't have many teams bearing down on them that really could catch them. I mean, sure, could the Giants beat them a couple times here next week and get the number one spot over them? Yeah, that could happen. I mean, there's a couple games here and there that are separating

these teams. But think of the gap between the Phillies and the team right outside the wild cards. We're talking about three and a half, four games. It's a lot. And the team's behind them, five and a half, six and a half, the Padres, whatever they are now. It's a lot of games. So the Phillies just play decent baseball the rest of the way while kind of setting things up for October. They're going to be there. I wouldn't be shocked, although I'd be surprised because Topper said no, if they give Nola a little breather. They did this with Wheeler last year, and I thought it really helped him until he probably ran out of gas again a little bit at the end of October. They could do that. They have enough of a cushion that if they think a two-week break for

Aaron Nola will freshen his arm back up for October, I'm all for it because they have enough starting pitching to get through it. But I keep going back to this. The best possible Phillies pitching staff rotation, you know, group when we get to the month of October still has Aaron Nola behind Zach Rutherford in the starting rotation. I can't envision a Phillies run through October, deep into October, NLCS World Series again without a good Aaron Nola.

That is the key. That makes them better because that allows you to put Lorenzen in the bullpen or Ranger in the bullpen. Heck, maybe both. I mean, if Tywon Walker figures it back out and feels better, I mean, they could realistically could. I don't trust Walker, but they could go Wheeler, Nola, Walker, and have both Ranger and Lorenzen, and they make a super bullpen.

So after Wheeler shoves in game one, you know, you could really have a lot of options for Topper to back up Nola, to back up Walker in games two and three. That is certainly a possibility as well. It's going to be fascinating. The Phillies need Nola, and I haven't given up on him yet. Appreciate everyone listening, subscribing, following WIP Daily.

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