High Hopes: A Phillies Podcast - WIP Daily: Reasons for Hope (and Worry) After the Phillies Lose Four Straight

Episode Date: May 5, 2023

From 'WIP Daily' (subscribe here): Joe Giglio checks to see if the glass is half empty or half full following the Phillies implosions in Los Angeles earlier this week. 'WIP Daily' is a new podcast from WIP and Audacy Sports. Fifteen minutes, every weekday, on the biggest news from the best sports city in the world, plus clips from your favorite WIP podcasts and shows. It’s your one-stop shop for everything Philly sports. Follow wherever you get your podcasts. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Crypto trading involves risk of loss. See kraken.com slash legal slash ca dash pru dash disclaimer for info on Kraken's undertaking to register in Canada. Whether the action is at the link or the bank, there's never an off day on Broad Street. It's the biggest news of the day, every day, with takes from someone who's never short on them. It's WIP Daily with Joe Giglio. Welcome on in. WIP Daily for May 5th. I appreciate everyone listening. Of course, Joe Giglio with you.

And subscribe, follow the podcast wherever you get your podcasts. So here's what I want to do today. As Bryce Harper gets back to Philadelphia, going to stand at the plate at Citizens Bank Park for the first time, of course, this last October. I feel like today's a good reset on the Phillies. I mean, what an awful, awful series they had in Los Angeles and lost the last one out in Houston.

So you think about the team right now, and we're about 20% through the season here, and the Phillies have just not been very good. I mean, they're 15-17, obviously not buried, not as bad as last year, but they're not playing good baseball. Lost four in a row here. And I think it's an interesting time to kind of take a dive back into the Phillies, who they are, what they are, what they might not be.

And really, I've got three reasons for real hope the rest of the way. And I've got three reasons that I think there's real reason to worry with some particular things. So let's dive into them. I'll kind of alternate hope, worry, hope, worry with the 2023 Phillies as Bryce Harper gets back. All right, let's start with the number one reason for hope and belief in this team the rest of the way. And it starts, you know, really with two players, but certainly one that just got back, and that's Bryce Harper. Like, the Phillies got Bryce Harper back way earlier than any of us thought he would. I mean, the Phillies put out that timeline when the surgery went down last November,

that, you know, sometime before the All-Star break. And that was vague. But even if you were a super optimist on when Bryce Harper would get back to the Phillies lineup, like June probably was an optimistic range. Maybe if you wanted to be really optimistic early June, early May was really never on the radar until the last, you know last month, month and a half. And it started to become like, he's really going to get back sooner, isn't he? And the encouraging thing about his second game in LA just a couple days ago was he reached base five times. He looked excellent. Now we'll see how it progresses. We

know last September, he came back very quickly off of the thumb, broken thumb. And it took him a month before the postseason started or until the postseason started to get going. So I'm not saying one day against the Dodgers means he's totally back and he's going to hit like an MVP the rest of the way. But having Bryce Harper back and helping this lineup, it is so significant. Harper because I think when you kind of play out the best version of the Phillies, they have two of the top, I don't know, 15 players in baseball between Bryce and Trey Turner. Now, we know Bryce has been hurt, so he hasn't been able to do what he could do yet, but right away, five times on base. And Bryce Harper, typically, his entire career, when he's on the field, he hits. Bryce Harper really doesn't have bad seasons.

You know, Bryce Harper has maybe down years for him, like let's say his first year here, a couple years with the Nats, and obviously he has some MVPs mixed in. But overall, the trajectory and career of Bryce Harper is outrageous. Trey Turner, though, has had a poor start to his Phillies career. You know, I put out last Sunday that I haven't been impressed yet with Trey Turner. People are like, oh, that's early. I mean, guys, if you've been impressed with Trey Turner so far, your bar for impressive players is so low.

I wish I was you because he hasn't been an impressive player yet. Made a nice defensive play in L.A. the other day. I think he's played a nice shortstop, not a gold glove, but nice shortstop. But he has not been a good offensive player yet. Strikes out a lot. Doesn't walk. Has not hit for overwhelming power, has not hit for average.

I mean, it's just been underwhelming. Now, the good part about Trey Turner is track record says he will play well. I mean, he's Trey Turner. There's a reason he got a $300 million contract. And if you go back and look at some of his starts, specifically last year with the Dodgers, he could start slow. So, and maybe now with Bryce, you know, hitting behind him, it gives them some more pitches to hit. So there is a real chance over the next few weeks, months, they have two of the top 15

players in baseball and they play like it. That's a big reason for hope. Our reason for worry here is the pitching. I mean, we can argue back and forth all we want about lineup construction. the pitching. I mean, we can argue back and forth all we want about lineup construction. Their pitching staff enters play today with the worst earned run average in the National League. I'm going to repeat it. The worst earned run average in the National League. And I mean, yeah, some of that smaller sample and it'll even out. Probably. I don't think this is the worst pitching staff in the NL. They have been taxed in their bullpen because their starters don't go deep into games. I know

Ranger could be back as early as the end of next week. These are all positives. And maybe, maybe Andrew Painter will get himself back in the middle of the summer and we'll feel great about this. But Aaron Nola's velocity is still down and he's not pitching like a guy that deserves or is even in the ballpark of $200 million. I think Wheeler is trending in the right direction, so that I feel better about. But Nola, velocity still not back. Tywon Walker stinks.

I mean, he's my new Kyle Gibson. I can't handle watching Tywon Walker pitch. It's just meatballs the guy throws. I can't believe that the Phillies gave him $32 million more than Zach Eflin got. Eflin is off to an incredible start with the guy throws. I can't believe that the Phillies gave him $32 million more than Zach Eflin got. Eflin is off to an incredible start with the Rays. Obviously, they probably made him a little bit better. That's what the Rays do with pitchers. But

the minute those contracts went down, it didn't make any sense. Yes, Walker more durable, but he's not a better pitcher. He's just not. Look at their ERAs and their careers. I mean, I'm not even having them in front of me. I would guess they're in the vicinity of each other, pretty close, in the mid-fours, you know, mid to low fours for a career. And Walker is an okay pitcher.

They got paid a lot of money, and now who knows if he's banged up because he had the elbow thing a couple weeks ago. So the pitching does worry me. Depp, who started pitching, worries me. Nola's velocity worries me. Walker worries me. Falter looks like he's being exposed a little bit here. And even guys you fondly of, like Matt Strom, you worry that they're using up

all the innings he has. He hasn't really been a starter in a while. So will he be as effective going back to the bullpen? I think the bullpen will be okay. They had a good run before a bad Dodgers series, but the pitching right now is certainly a concern. All right, let's go back to a reason for hope here. The top of the NL isn't as good as advertised. So, you know, the gap between the Phillies and the top isn't what it's been in years past, or it was like a year ago. Now, the Braves are really good.

I think the Braves are the best team in the National League. Point blank period right now, the Braves are the best team in the NL. We blank period right now, the Braves are the best team in the NL. We kind of always knew the Braves were better than the Phillies. But the Dodgers, despite what they did to the Phillies this week, are not as great as they've been in years past. They'll probably be a 95-win team, 94-93-win

team, make the playoffs. It's not a 111-win juggernaut like a year ago. They're a little bit shorter. They're incorporating younger guys. They didn't spend as much. They're good, but not great. The Padres have kind of been stuck in the mud like the Phillies. People thought they could be great. Maybe they will, but not yet.

The Mets have taken a major step back from last year, and their older guys look old. So the top of the NL and the Cardinals, who were the other playoff team last year along with the Phillies, are awful. I mean, for all the worries we have with the Phillies pitching, the Cardinals pitching is batting practice. So I think they're not a good team and won along with the Phillies are awful. I mean, for all the worries we have with the Phillies pitching, the Cardinals pitching is batting practice.

So I think they're not a good team and won't make the playoffs. So the top of the NL certainly isn't as good as it was last year. And the Phillies got through that last year as good as the NL was. So that is certainly something to hold on to that. Yeah, they're stuck in the mud right now, 15 and 17. But who's really that great in the NL? Other than the Braves. And I'm not even putting the Pirates yet because

I don't buy it at this level. Are they improved? Sure. Are they viable? Maybe. Can they win an NL Central if it's an 87 win, 85 win division? Maybe. Because they're off to a wonderful start. But I'm just... They're not a real contender for me. So

eliminate that. I just don't think the top of the NL, other than the Braves, is as good as normal. Psst. Want to get in on the best savings hack ever? Only Kudo saves you up to 40% on a sweet phone plan, reliable home internet, and all the streaming you could ever need with Netflix, Disney Plus, and Amazon Prime. That's right. When you bundle with the Happy Stack, you can spend up to 40% less a month every month all

year long, as long as you're with Kudo. Dare I say saving this much money has never been this easy? Stack more, spend less, like way less. The happy stack, only at Kudo. Now with internet. All right, let's go back to a negative because certainly, certainly there's, this one is hitting me as I watch the team and kind of look at the numbers day to day. So everyone loves Kevin Long and Kevin Long's an awesome hitting coach and has had success really everywhere he's been. You go back to the Yankees days, you go to the Mets, you go to the Nationals, obviously here right now with the Phillies. Kevin Long is kind of one of those rock star hitting coaches that all the hitters love and players want to go play with

him when they've played him before. Everyone raves about him. And it's worthy. I mean, he's one of the better hitting coaches in baseball and has been for a while. But I've noticed something about this year, and I think we may have gone a little too far with Kevin Long's approach. And not that his approach is wrong. Maybe it's just not the message with this particular group of individuals, it's like it's not connecting the way I think it needs to. So, the Phillies don't walk. I mean, I don't know how else to say it besides they don't walk enough. And

I know you probably don't watch the games and watch the Phillies walk, but walks are good. We can be real about it. Walks and on-base percentage are good. And swinging at the first pitch without damage is bad. It's a double whammy. You're not getting on base. Obviously, if you don't get a hit, you're making out on the first pitch. You're not getting on base and you are not working the pitcher. You're not

tiring the pitcher out, getting into the bullpen, any of those kinds of things. And the Phillies right now, as you look at them, and Bryce Harper coming back, I think will help with this just naturally. But as of May 5th, the Phillies are 12th in the National League in walks. They have walked 85 times. They have struck out 292. So they're the bottom of the NL in strikeouts or towards the bottom, right? Bottom third of the NL in striking out. They strike out a lot, but they don't walk.

Bad combination. They need to walk more to make their home runs more viable. It just helps have big innings. They're not walking enough and not enough selectivity. Too many at-bats. And I think Trey Turner's been really one of the worst at this, where they get up there and they just swing at the first pitch. I mean, how many times do you think Trey Turner swung at the first pitch?

It has to be an enormous amount. It's crazy. They don't work. I'm going to give you some of their strikeouts to walk ratios as a team. Real Muto, three walks to 27 strikeouts. That's abysmal. Stott, six walks to 25 strikeouts. Not great. Not what you want in an elite off-hitter. Trey Turner,

eight walks to 35 strikeouts. Edmundo Sosa, two walks to 19 strikeouts. And Munoz Sosa, two walks to 19 strikeouts. Marsh, 13 to 33 is actually, you know, that's not horrendous compared to everybody else. Schwarber is kind of in the two to one. At least he has 19 walks to 38 strikeouts. And we know he's going to strike out a lot,

but at least he walks. And Bryce Harper just got back. He's almost even two walks to three strikeouts. That's obviously more ideal. They just, they walk, they strike out a lot and they don't walk. That combination is not great. It's not what you want. All right, let's go to a reason for some hope here.

And I hate to fall back on this because it just feels lazy, but it's also true, so we can't ignore it. They've done it before. I think the Phillies will get the benefit of the doubt from this fan base and this city for most of this summer, as long as they're not buried, because they literally did this last year,

where they got off to a tough start, and they turned it around. So, I think to a lot of people, nothing matters, no matter if there's, like, red flashing warning signs or good play nothing really matters until june july august you know into september because what they did last year they were horrendous last year and and obviously turned it around but i i've cautioned this from the first

two weeks of the season that is not easy to do like digging a hole and then smiling as you dig out of it like maybe you could do that once and get to the World Series. You know what is probably over time a more prudent way of doing it? You know, winning more games in the beginning of the year, being in the division title race, winning the division, getting home field. Like the Phillies are, it's not over yet, but the more they play like this, the more that becomes less likely. And they have to go the route they did last year,

which is sneak in as a wild card, go on the road the whole time. It's a harder route to a championship, and that's still the goal. I mean, I haven't changed my goal for this team, and what I expect and hope is that they go from where they were last year and finish the job, and they have a deep lineup. They have a talented bullpen. I said before this season I don't back off it. Talent-wise,

names, the status of where these guys were picked in their respective drafts, it's the most talented Phillies team ever. And payroll, obviously. The expectations should be that. So, while it's frustrating, I get it, though. They've done it before. They get the benefit of the doubt. Let's end with one more

reason for worry. And it's kind of a juxtaposition of the top of the NL is obviously not as good as it was a year ago. I really only think the Braves are the only great team this year in the National League. They have a 688 winning percentage. But I think there are more contenders than last year, more viable teams that could fight for a playoff spot than last year. I mean, last year really was, you know, the Giants fell off midsummer and it really became seven teams for six spots. And the Phillies obviously got that six spot over the Brewers. And

then the rest of the NL stunk. You know, it was a couple teams kind of in the middle like the Giants, but then the rest of the league stunk for the Cubs, Pirates, Nationals, they were bad. Marlins. So it was almost like all you have to do is beat the Brewers. That became, anytime they struggled in August, September, it was like, well, just beat the Brewers and you'll make the playoffs. Nobody else could catch you from behind. This year, I think it's a little

bit different, guys. I mean, Pittsburgh certainly looks more viable and maybe they'll stay in the race. Milwaukee again in the race. Arizona now a contender. Miami has at least been at 500, and they have better young pitching. The Mets fell back, but are obviously still in that mix. The Cubs, the Giants, there's more teams. I think it's more like 10 or 11 teams for six spots now,

and maybe they're all kind of middling, but there's more teams. It's like the Kentucky Derby. There's more horses out there. So the Phillies stumble. There's a chance, a better chance this summer than last. A horse you don't even think is any good, like, I don't know, the Diamondbacks or the Cubs, just passes you. So that's something to keep looking out for as the Phillies try to turn this thing around.

There's certainly reasons for optimism led by Harper and Turner, and there's some reason for pessimism and worry with all that pitching, all the pitching issues right now. It's going to be fun. Bryce Harper returning, the ovation, hopefully without a pitch clock violation. It should be awesome. Awesome at Citizens Bank Park on Friday night. Appreciate everyone listening. As always, the WIP Daily podcast, Monday through Friday, wherever you get your podcasts, please follow on the Odyssey app or wherever you get your podcasts. I really appreciate everyone that's responding to this podcast and listened. It's a new venture we're doing and I'm doing for WIP and I'm having a blast. Obviously, WIP Middays with Hugh Douglas

is a daily show and hope everyone listens to that, but a chance to kind of get out another 15 minutes of what's on my mind and what's going on in the biggest story in Philadelphia sports. I love doing it. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk again next week. Go Phil's over the weekend against the Red Sox.