Higher Learning with Van Lathan and Rachel Lindsay - Election Day Is Here. What’s Going to Happen?

Episode Date: November 5, 2024

Van and Rachel remember the life and iconic career of Quincy Jones (7:16) before welcoming Pastor Carlton Lynch to discuss his viral confrontation with a Donald Trump supporter (11:24), and historian Allan Lichtman to dig into his 'Keys to the White House' method for predicting presidential winners (25:03). Then, a quick break from politics to talk Lil Wayne’s ‘Super’ disappointment (44:13), Joel Embiid and Jason Kelce defending their families (56:15), and Megan Thee Stallion’s new documentary (1:03:50). Then, Bakari Sellers is back to give some insight on the last days of the Kamala Harris campaign, and predictions on what to expect (1:13:08). Hosts: Van Lathan and Rachel Lindsay Guests: Carlton Lynch, Allan Lichtman, and Bakari Sellers Producers: Donnie Beacham Jr. and Ashleigh Smith Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Yo, yo, yo, thought warriors. What is up? Her learning is on. It's Ivan Lathan Jr. And it's me, Rachel and Lindsay. Rachel asked for the podcast to be filmed early, and then she showed up late. You know what's funny?

Prior to this podcast, you were calling somebody a rat, and then five seconds in on this podcast is exactly what you do. You're the ops. Nobody needed to know that. Can't be honest with you? Nobody needed to know.

You can't rat within the family. Oh, okay. Let's make up some new rules. That's true. No. It's called tattletailing. Well, it's not right. Whatever it may be, it's what you are.

If people are wondering while we're dressed up today, this is our election alive special. As you are watching and listening to this, you should be watching. Rachel and I are wearing our best wares because it is Election Day. And so it's Hoot Nanny here. He has a very special hat on. A hoot nanny is Election Day. Rachel. Did we get the polls for our?

The hoot nanny? They love who. Whether or not he's here to stay. They love who, Danny. What was the verdict? Yeah, the consensus was pretty pro hootnanny. Let me pull up the actual numbers. But I think whoon nanny's here to stay.

But my thing is, though, you should kind of do a little self-scout on the whole hootnanny thing. Like, open yourself up, Rachel. You're out here in the streets, which, by the way, I don't know, are these niggas, are y'all hot and bothered? Don't hit me up about Rachel no more. You know what's funny? People don't DM me. You would think that my DMs were flooded

with people trying to get at me. They're not. Yeah. So that's why I'm like, what are you talking about? Nobody's nobody's... They're hitting me because I think they're intimidated by you, which is something that you probably need to address. Wait, time out, time out, time out.

Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. So I need to relax. Is that what Van just says to me? I need to soften myself. I need to... Hey, hey. I'm talking about is use a little honey to catch these bees.

You know what I'm saying? You better get with that divine feminine. I'm actually working with somebody on that. Are you serious? No, this is true. No, no, no, no. This is actually true. Real talk, just to be serious for two seconds.

You're going to shake your head when I say this, just like when I made the percentage comment. I have had to play a different role for years. And so for... It's hard for me to release that. Like, I have, I'll just say it. I have been both the man and the woman in my relationship. Oh, my God.

And it's really hard for me to let go of that sometimes because that is the role that I've been playing. When we went to therapy, that's the first thing he said to me. Oh, my God. I love that. I know. I do too. And it's not that I don't want to do that.

It's just I've been doing that for such a long time. I'm ready to release it. You know, I just need somebody to, it's actually real. I need somebody in my life that's going to give you the space and make me feel vulnerable enough to do that. That's actually, I think that's very, I think a lot of people would listen to that

and it makes you feel away because you, but that's actually a very astute and vulnerable and deep observation about things. Because I feel this. Seriously. The first thing you're supposed to learn as a human being is safety. It's the first thing that you learn. There's an ecosystem around you to keep you safe.

Yes. You cry, somebody goes, what's wrong? Like, you're hungry, somebody feeds you. You know, if you're lucky, all these things happen. And then after that, that undergirding of safety in your life, there comes this, like, gigantic wave where now those same people have to teach you how unsafe things are and where you're safe. And then for the rest of your life, it's almost a journey of decoding where you're safe

and where you're unsafe. Yeah. And if someone makes you feel unsafe, it's really, really difficult to ever feel safe again with that person or with that type of person. And you're right. And also as a means of survival, and I feel like, you know, we've talked about the black woman and all of that. it's like you do what you have to do to get through it.

So that's what I had to do. The exact quote was, you're a lion and he's a gazelle. This is the type of shit I don't take part in. Because let me tell you why this is the type of shit I don't take part in. I don't take part in shit like this because if I'm on the other side of this and then I see somebody out and they keep keying in it and they're doing it. I got to check your temperature if I'm the gazelle.

Right. If I was somewhere right now, so I abstain from that. That's your thing. And I'll tell you why, because it's just man to man respect. If I was somewhere right now and someone had been on something calling me like a gazelle, I would be like, oh, nigga, what's up with that gazelle shit? You want to see, gazelle? Not my words.

I would have checked him. Was the other person in the room when this was said? No. Okay, well, yeah, see, now, you know, you're doing your thing. But I can't You got to be some temperature check And I'll fake the ball You remember when Matt Barnes did that to Kobe

Rest in peace, Kobe Yeah That was just shout out to Matt Barnes I was just temperature check Like you know And Kobe Kobe passed a test Anyway

But look I am really working on though That's like I mean I hope people Really aren't intimidated But I am working on Oh they are But I was like why

Let me read you this hit me up this morning man fuck the numbers see if Rachel want to shoot higher learning down here man Rachel needs somebody to just come okay some of these I'm not reading but yeah so

you know I think I think they feel safer seeing what's up as far as I'm concerned to give them but like a lot of the people you know there's one guy who

he has a like a pet boy constrictor that's not I can tell him it's not going to happen it's a friend of mine pet boy constrictor constrictor oh I grew up with my uncle having one of those so you wouldn't mind so if you walked into a nigger house and he had a big

ass snake you cool with it that doesn't bother me interesting um before we get into the show and we have a big election show coming up we got a tapping with Rachel's love life all the time we have a big election show

we got Carlton Lynch coming up We got Alan Lickman, the keys to the election coming up. We got Baccari Sellers coming up. We got a big election show coming up, but we have to do something right now. Last night we lost a titan. Yeah. Patent in music and culture, not just music, but in culture. Quincy Jones, 28-time Grammy winner, music icon passed away.

Family statement, tonight with full but broken hearts, we must share the news of our father and brother Quincy Jones is passing. And although this is an incredible loss for our family, we celebrate the great life that he lived and know that there will never be another like him, which is definitely true. Rachel, what do you think? I mean, 91 years old,

lived a long, beautiful life, influential for decades, worked with so many different artists across so many different genres. I mean, it seems like there's nobody or nothing that Quincy Jones did not touch. Whether it was his own album or behind someone else, else is.

And, you know, this is just, just take it back. I didn't realize how young he was when he started until, like 14 or something like that. That's how I was able to have such a long career

doing what he was doing. Like playing, is it the trumpet that he played? I didn't know until I saw the movie Ray. And you see them cross past when they're younger. And I was like, oh, wow, I really didn't know that he was in it for that long.

So 14 to 91. Yeah. I mean, what a beautiful life. And it makes you think, what would music be without Quincy Jones? Different is the answer. Yeah. Ubiquity. He achieved a cultural ubiquity that many can't.

Some of the biggest moments, thriller. Quincey Jones, you know, Ray Charles, Frank Sinatra, Elvis. So many Grammy nominations, different generations. Tevin Campbell. I was about to say, Tevin. You know, just so much going on in Quincy's life. And then his contributions to music, the whiz, the color purple, the fresh pits of Belair, Quincy Jones, Mad TV. Oh, I didn't know that.

Yep. A friend of mine. Adam, one of the funniest writers in the entire world who worked on a living color at Mad TV and created the Jamie Kennedy experiment, used to tell me great Quincy Jones stories. he was writer on Mad TV. Tell me great Quincy Jones stories. Me and Adam have a script called Off the Chain. Have we ever told you about this movie? Off the Chain.

It's a movie. It's a movie, yeah. We wrote. It's about a Navy SEAL whose dog gets kidnapped and put into dog fighting. Okay. And then he has to kill to get the dog back off the chain. His name of the movie. Adam.

Love you, brother. Writing partner. tells me about Quincy Jones. All of this stuff. When people go, it's always sad. But when you see a life so well lived, you can do nothing but take your hat off to Mr. Quincy Jones,

who was just an unstoppable force and very influential and integral to breaking down so many barriers for black people Yeah. You know? And has left a great family, a great legacy. There was never any smoke or smut on Quincy's name. Yeah.

Just an amazing, an amazing, an amazing life. And if you guys haven't, there's a great documentary. I think it came out on Netflix, covering Quincy Jones and his life from the beginning all the way up until the big concert. I think that is how it ended. but it's really, really good. Really will give you even more insight to how great he was. Rest in peace, Quincy. Rest in peace.

You earned it, buddy. All right, we're going to take a break on the other side of this. We're going to talk about standing up for black women with Carlton Lynch. Borrow video you might have seen. Pastor. Pastor. Pastor Carlton Lynch. That's key.

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Call 1-800-526-7736 to learn more or visit Trimfairadio.com. You guys, I saw a video a couple of days ago, and the video reminded me of something. No matter what happens in this election, no matter what happens on any podcast or any platforms, there's a way that we should show up to protect and talk about black ladies in our community. And a gentleman displayed that

in a video I posted to my Instagram. I'm going to set it up very briefly. And we're going to talk to the man himself. The video starts. There is some conversation between what looks to be a Trump supporter in a car and a brother who is standing outside. That's all I could see. I didn't have any context, didn't know what was going on,

but the back and forth seems to have started after the man in the car refers to Madam Vice President Kamala Harris as a bitch. And this is the way the black man in that video responded. Donnie running for me. Are you married? What?

Are you married? Oh, yeah. So you'd be okay if I call your wife a bitch? If Kamala is a bitch, your wife is a bitch. Just keep it across the board. That's why you want Trump in because of the racism and the disrespect. We sitting here having a conversation with my politics, you call them a woman a bitch. Where's your mom? How long she's been dead?

She's still living? She's a bitch. So every woman, so every woman that you connected to is a bitch. Since she a bitch. Just like you. I ain't met your people, just like I ain't met your people, you ain't ever met Kamau here. I wouldn't want to, man. Okay, I wouldn't want to meet your mom.

Don't come around here being called no black woman, no bitch. You're talking about that could be my ain't. So fuck you. Okay? You get that? I got a call or text, I think last Friday, from the man himself, pastor Carlton Lynch, who is in that video defending Kamala Harris, and we have him on higher learning right now joining us, Pastor Lynch, my brother.

How are you doing, man? What's going on, brother? I'm doing well. How are you, sir? Thank you for having me. I'm fantastic. I think a lot of people might have been surprised to hear that you are, in fact, a pastor. Because you had some choice words for the man in there.

Can you tell us what happened and why you felt the need to respond in the way that you did? So that was last Tuesday and it's been a lot going on with Michigan votes. So outside of my condo, I live in a city called Benton Harbor, Michigan. Former president, Bill Clinton, was in town. In fact, I was registered to go to his event and I walk outside of my condo. You know what? I really don't even feel like going. I'm just going to listen from the outside.

And so I'm just walking down the sidewalk, and I see this guy in a Trump, you know, a van with all the Trump sign that's on the van. He says to me, how are you doing? I said, I'm doing good. He said, you're going to the campaign rally. And I was like, I don't think so. I think I'm going to listen from outside. And he says, well, the last time I seen Bill Clinton, he was getting his whacker, sucks.

So that's not even on the video. Wow. So I was like, well, he's done more than that, you know. And so he went on to just have a political conversation with me, which I thought it was a real good conversation. I thought it was just going to be kind of, you know, little edgy. Let's argue a little bit. just do a regular politic talk.

And so I text my assistant that was just a block walking in the area and I asked him to come and report. And I'm thinking we're just going to do some talk

and I'm just going to mingle with people outside. So finally, some of the things that he was saying to me, you know, I'm not going to say I agree, but I didn't disagree

with just having the conversation. And he just shifts the whole conversation. and says at that moment, we can't let that bitch get in the office. We're doomed. And he just kept trying to talk. And I was like, well, no, you can't call her a bitch, you know.

And he just goes on, well, you got to call it the way it is. And I was like, wow, that I just couldn't believe that he would say that to me. And so it really vanned through me off. And I got to the point where, as I said to my church yesterday, I'm 45 years old. I've been a lot of places, but I have not seen racism in my face. And so I thought out of all that we see on social media, I just think there comes a time that we're going to have to fight back. And that's when you see the exchange that's going on. and I asked him

At that time, are you married? He says, yes, and I say to him, how would you feel if I called your wife a bitch? At that moment, Van, I thought he was going to say I wouldn't like it.

And I never in my mind intended to say, well, if Kamala Harris is, then your wife is. I'm thinking at that time, he's going to shut this conversation down. But as you see in the video,

He didn't, so it just kept going. It kept going until the last words at the end. You know, it was, as a black woman, it was great to see, and I'm sure you've seen this response, and I'd love for you to speak to it, to see a black man stand up for black women in general. Yes, it was for Vice President Kamala Harris, but it represented so much more.

We see a lot, you know, like from black men, when it comes to the election, not a lot, but just enough to where it's making enough noise of public figures not being there for black women in the same way. For you, what made you say, I need to step up, I need to say something, and I'm wondering what that response has been

from your congregation, from social media, or just in person since this has gone so viral? Well, I have two black daughters. I have two amazing, in granddaughters. I have sisters. I have women in my church. And I just think that we are going too damn far with this election.

I just think it's just too much. You know, vote for who you want to vote for. And I think that until men get to the point where we would not tolerate no disrespect, I believe it will stop when celebrities and entertainment, begin to shut this down. Pastors, I'm not dealing with a lot of backlash in my church. I pastor a church that's 101 years old. People have been in my church for 70 plus years all the way down to little babies.

I talked about it yesterday with a sermon entitled. I said what I said that I preached on yesterday. And I'm at the point now, my sister, that I'm willing to lay down my life for women, for my daughters, for just women in general, who's going to protect them? When you see all this going on throughout our country, the nation is afraid, apparently, for a woman being able to rise up to the place where she has the nomination. and millions are backing her. I just don't think on the side of a sidewalk, we can just allow, just hate to just come out boldly and say and call that woman a bitch.

If you want to talk about her policy is fine. If you want to talk about she's not fit for the office, fine if you want to say that she hasn't done enough in her career to want her that position to be the president, of the United States, fine, but I believe in this hour, women are rising up. I believe they're going higher. They're owning businesses. They're becoming CEOs. They're in high political positions. And I think that as they're rising up, we must do everything we can to protect them. And I was even at that point, as you noticed, at that last part of the conversation, I was saying to myself,

man, I'm about to go to jail. Yeah. Yeah. I think. there was only one other step after that. You know? So it is what it is at this point. Right. If they said all of that stuff about her, about her qualifications and stuff like that, they would be wrong,

but they definitely have the right to say it. Let me ask you a question before I let you out of here, Pastor. Because I got to notice. What would you have done if that man would have stepped out of that car, pastor? I know you're a man of God, but what happens then?

Hey, man, listen. I was listening to, I was listening to a band, Louis Farrakhan a couple nights ago. In fact, after we talked, and he said something that really struck me, he says, this will not stop until we die and they die. Until we fight back, it won't stop.

And so if he would have got the car, it is what it is. I've been to jail. I've done a lot of time. I mean, at this point, it's just what it is, because I just think it's entirely too much that we're dealing with as a people that we have to be respected and I believe that we're in a season

and an hour that we got demand of respect. Well, I'll just say thank you. And I'm sure if I would have went, I'm sure if I would have went and they would have got me out with all of these followers. I would have got out of jail.

Oh, I got you. Oh, sorry. Me and you, me and you, I got, you ain't got worried about that. I got you. We got hooked up through a mutual friend. And yeah, you, like, I got you. I got you.

So I was, it was energizing and refreshing. It was. But I was also nervous. Like watching it, I thought you, I was thankful and proud, but I was also nervous for you in that moment. Because I thought, you were willing to stand on what you believe without any fear of what that person could possibly do. You had no idea, like, what they had in the car, if they were going to get out, what could happen. but you were just standing in what you believed in. And to me, that was really beautiful to see.

Yeah, I think that that's the problem. I think that too many people are afraid. I mean, they've already been killing us. I mean, look at just the police brutality and all the shootings and all that's going on and people roll over and play dead. I mean, you think about it. Donald Trump right now want to give immunity to the police

and all these various things that's going on. So we cannot be afraid at this moment. And I just want to say this first man, thank you for your post. Thank you for sharing and really giving my name a light. So many women from your platform has reached out. And I promise to you, I promise you, I thought nothing about social media at that time. I really just wanted to stand for a woman that was not present and say that you cannot disagree. Vote for whoever you want.

Say whatever you want politically. And I say that over and over. But you cannot disrespect our black women. Not at this hour, not under my watch. Pastor Lynch, thank you. We appreciate you joining us. One more time so people know where to come

and find you and where your church is. Tell them about your church and tell them about your social media. My name is Pastor Carlton, Lynch. I reside in Benton Harbor, I pastor, the historic Pilgrim Rest Baptist Church right here in the city of Benton Harbor. I'm on social media on every platform, Instagram, at Pastor Carlton Lynch, Facebook, and all of that. And that's where I'm at.

I pray that you all will subscribe and follow me all the good work in the things that we're doing here in the city. We definitely will. We'll have you back. We'll have you back and we'll check in on what you're doing up there. now and again, my brother. I'm pleased to have connected with you, man. And God bless you, man. Thank you for joining us.

Thank you. Thank you so much. The main question for people right now, as you were watching this, is what's going to happen? What is going to happen? How is it going to happen? And there are some people

who make their living explaining to us politics, how elections work, what keys that American voters look for when choosing their president and there's none better than the distinguished professor

of history at American University. The man called the Nostradamus of presidential elections has called the last nine out of ten elections correctly and the author of predicting the next president the keys to the White House. Nostradamus himself Alan Lickman joins us today on higher learning professor. How are you doing?

I'm doing great. Swamp, by the way, don't make my living at predictions. I have a day job. Oh, wow. Professor of History at American University where I've been teaching for 51 years. I would also say 10 out of 10,

I think I got 2,000 right as well because, as I proved to the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights, the report is still up on their website. The only reason Bush won Florida by 537 votes was because of the tossing out by Florida authorities. A vast number of ballots cast by black voters. 12,000. Ballots had been counted, which were clearly intentionally for Gore, Gore to one going away. But we're not here to litigate 2000.

We can do that forever, right? So really quickly, we know that this is your busy season right here. for our audience that might not know about your prediction system, could you briefly, and whatever time you need, tell them how you are so successful at predicting presidential elections? What metric do you use? I use my method, the keys to the White House, the 13 keys,

and they pay no attention to the pundits. I love the pundits. They're my buddies, but they have no scientific basis for prediction and no extensive track record of successful prediction. Remember, they were all wrong in 2016 when I correctly predicted Trump, which did not make me very popular in 90% plus Democratic D.C. where I teach at American University.

I don't pay attention to the polls. They're momentary snapshots. They're only abused as predictors. The 13 keys to the White House tap into the fundamentals of how American presidential elections really work as votes up or down on the strength and performance of the White House Party. And that is what the keys gauge. The big message is that it's governing, not campaigning that counts. Imagine that. And 13 keys are simple, integral parameters, phrase as true, false questions, or an answer of true favors stability.

The White House Party stays in power and an answer of false favors earthquake. The White House Party is bounced out. Here are the keys. Mandate key based on U.S. House elections, incumbency, contest the incumbent party nomination, third party, short and long-term economy, policy change, social unrest scandal,

foreign slash military failures and successes, you can see tapping into governing. And the only keys that have anything to do with the candidates ask whether the incumbent or challenging party candidate those once in a generation across the board transformational candidates who appeal beyond a narrow base. And the way it works, if six or more of the 13 keys are false, you have earthquakes, five or fewer false keys, you have stability. You have made a prediction in that you believe Vice President Kamala Harris will win this upcoming election. And for those people, like most people are saying, you know, it's a tie,

they're looking at the polls, which I know you said you don't. For those people who are kind of like, I'm not sure what's going to happen, what differences do you see from the 2016? election where you did correctly predict that Donald Trump would win versus now, where you don't see him winning in 2024? Yes. Remember, the keys are primarily gauged against the strength and performance of the White House party. And in 2016, I was able to define all the pundits and pollsters and predict Trump's win because

there are enough negative keys against the Democrats. You know, they lost the midterm elections. It was an open seat. They didn't have a sitting president running. There was a big party contest. There was serious third party candidates. Gary Johnson, for example, the Obama administration did not follow up the Affordable Care Act with a similar major policy change in the second term or the dispatch of bin Laden with a similar splashing foreign policy success. And I didn't rate Hillary Clinton as one.

of those once-in-a-generation inspirational candidates. In contrast, in this election, I only counted four negative keys against the White House party. The mandate key, because they lost seats in 2022, incumbency, because Biden is not running, the VP does account. And by the way, I was very critical of the Democrats for openly and viciously trashy. They're sitting president right out in public. And I've studied politics since the founding and never seen anything like that. I also thought they were headed for a disaster. They would push Biden out and not only lose my incumpancy key, but also have a big party brawl and lose the contest key. No White House party has ever been reelected since 1900 when they've lost both those keys. Maybe they listened to me? I don't know.

But for once, the Democrats threw a spine and a brain, united behind Harris, and avoided losing the contest key. We then get to the third party key. And I think the switch to Harris contributed to the fizzling of RFK Jr. since voters didn't have to choose between two old white guys anymore. I hate to say that being an old white guy, but I think it's true. So we're still only down two keys. Short-term economic key. It's very quantitative. There is no recession in the election year. We're not close. The last growth numbers were 2.8%. GDP, not negative, not close. And the long-term economic key is measured by real per capita growth during the previous, during the current term, as compared to real per capita growth on average during

the previous two terms. And the Biden administration is way ahead. Policy change, clearly, in every domain of policy. Biden's policies differ from that of Trump. Immigration, taxes, welfare, reproductive rights, climate change, the contrast could not be greater. Social unrest. I think, again, the Harris nomination contributed to that because the protests were directed against Biden, who's now in the background, and they've completely fizzled. We haven't had the kind of massive, sustained, social unrest to turn that key. My favorite key, the juiciest key, the scandal key. And again, I've tightly defined all these keys and answered them, developmentally since 1860, and prospectively since I predicted Ronald Reagan's re-election.

In April, 1982, when 60% of Americans said he was too old to run again, and his approval ratings are historically low. So to turn this key, it's got to implicate the president himself, not his son, not his brother, like the reprehensible bill. Carter, the brother upright, Jimmy Carter, and there has to be at least some bipartisan recognition of

wrongdoing. Well, Republicans have tried for four years to pin a scandal on Biden and come up empty. Their so-called smoking gun witness, Mr. Smyrnav, was arrested by the FBI for lying about the Bidens and spreading Russian propaganda.

So we're still only down two keys. Foreign policy failure. I count that as a third key. against the White House party. The Middle East is a humanitarian catastrophe with no end insight. Finally, my fourth negative key is incumbent charisma. Whatever you may think of, Harris, she is not one of those once in a generation across the board transformational candidates like Franklin Roosevelt on the Democratic side or Ronald Reagan on the Republican side. So I only count four keys against the White House party. Remember five or fewer, we have stability. That's why I'm predicting

we're going to have our first woman president and our first president of mixed African and Asian descent. Foreshadowing where our country's going. We're rapidly becoming a majority minority country. Hold white guys like me are on the decline. So I watch a lot of you. Like I watch a lot of you. Like I watch a lot. lot of you. I know the entire backstory with the keys and like where the methodology comes from and all of that stuff.

I would encourage everybody to watch it. What I'm seeing on Pacan, see in Cuomo, everywhere you've gone, I've watched it. Last question for you, Professor, we obsess over polling. We are addicted to polling. Every single

day, what has happened here? These polls come in. I know the names of polls that are so, I know shout out a poll. I know the poll. I know the poll rating, all of that stuff. And I've recently seen, or recently saw shit, I said a back and forth between you and Nate Silver. And it seemed as if that back and forth was more about methodology and accuracy of prediction than it was anything between you two guys as people. Yeah, I never met him. Right. Why do you feel like, first of all, I ask you two questions

to get you out of here. One, do we overvalue polling? And two, why are the keys so much more accurate and predicting presidents than the polling that we've been led to believe is supposed to be able to do that pretty accurately? We vastly overvalued polls. I'm 77. I remember Kennedy Nixon in 1960. And by the way, When I was 13, I saw Kennedy in New York City. And let me tell you, all the talk about his charisma is not overstated. He blew us away. And we had a poll back then once every couple of weeks, and nobody cared.

That was fine. Now we have a poll virtually every hour, and the media jumps on it as though it was a revelation. I'll explain why that's misleading, and I'll explain why that's pernishing. It's misleading because all that polling is noise. It's way within the margin of error. You know, you've heard them tell, right, that the margin of error is about plus and minus 3%. That's pure statistical error.

That's the error you would get if you had a huge jaw of green and red balls, and you pulled out a sample to estimate the percentage of green and red balls in a jar. But human beings are not green and red balls. They don't respond to pulsars, so they have to a huge jar, so they have to reweight their sample. They may lie. They're going to change their mind. Plus, they have to guess who the likely voters are. That at least doubles the margin of error, at least plus and minus 6%.

But that non-statistical error is not random. It's unidirectional. In 2016, the polls underestimated Republican voters. Remember, they were all predicting a Hillary Clinton win when I was predicting a Trump win. But like generals fighting the last war, they've tried to correct that. And evidence from elections from 2022 to specials in 2024 suggests they may be now underestimating Democratic voting strength. My classic example is the most prominent special of 2024 for the New York congressional seat held by the

disgraced and expelled George Santos previously held. A poll taken on the eve of the election had the Democrat ahead by one point. He won by 18. points outperforming the polls by seven points. Why are the keys for the White House so much more accurate? Because they don't depend on polls that are snapshots, that constantly change, and that have such large error margins that they are useless in anything but a blowout election, and then they would matter anyway. Remember, Nate Silver was wrong in 2016. depending on the time of day you checked in with him, he said there was somewhere between a 70 to 80% chance that Clinton wouldn't win.

Then when he was found wrong, he wouldn't admit it. He said, look, I told you there was a 20% plus chance that she would lose. Well, if you can't be wrong, you can't be right. And if you checked in with him this year, he's all over the map between predicting Harris, between predicting Trump. And now he doesn't seem to be predicting anyone, he says, the election. is too close to call. So I think you should stick with a scientific system that has been right predictively for 40 years, and that in development, when I developed it in 81, goes all the way

back to 1860 when Abraham Lincoln was elected. Remember back then we had no planes, no automobiles, no radio, no television, no polls, women couldn't vote, African Americans for the most part, enslaved. My ancestors of Eastern Europe hadn't gotten here yet. We were an agricultural society. So the keys are very robust. They've endured enormous changes in our society, our economics, our transportation, our communication, our politics, our demagogical. Does that mean I'm infallible that I couldn't ever be wrong? Of course not. I'm a human being, you know, and my predictions are based on history. I'm not psychic Gene Dixon with a crystal ball. I'm not speaker Mike Johnson who claims the Almighty talks to him.

It's always possible that the pattern of 160 years of politics could be broken. Not likely, but there could be something so unprecedented and so catastrophic to break that pattern. But the point is, you can never know in advance. You can only know after it happened. It's like a scientific revolution. You can't predict it or it wouldn't be a revolution. That kind of answered my last question for you because the New York Times had an interesting article where they spoke with you and they talked about some of the unprecedented things that happened this year

with the switching from Biden to Harris and the assassination attempts if your model could withstand what has happened this year and so many things that it's been up and down and things we haven't necessarily seen happen. And I was wondering what your thoughts were on that. I've already explained how a model is and how it has accounted for much greater changes than anything we see in any individual election. You know, my favorite comedian is the late grade Gilda Ragnar, whose character Roseanne, Rosanna Danna, used to say,

there's always something. And there's always something in an election. And critics are always telling me this year is different. Got to change your keys. 2008. when I was predicting Barack Obama, they said to me, oh no, we've never had an African-American running before. America's not ready to elect an African-American. For 2016, we had the biggest October surprise ever, Donald Trump on tape, bragging about sexually assaulting women and

lots of women coming out and saying, yeah, he did that to me. And even Republicans thought he was finished. A lot of critics said, you can't predict Trump anymore. I stuck to my predictions. if I'd listen to the critics who said this year is different, you've got to change your model, I would have been wrong. So the keys are really the North Star of prediction. They do not waver in response to the events of the campaign, no matter how unprecedented they may seem. Professor Ligman, we know that you are swamped right now.

We appreciate you making some time for us here on Higher Learning. Thank you so much. And we are using the North Star of the Keys. Let me say one more thing. Sure. Please catch my live show. Mar and I at 7 p.m. a special time at Alan Lickman YouTube, A-L-L-A-N-L-I-C-H-T-M-A-N-U-T.

We will be doing wall-to-wall coverage on the election with all of my commentary. and we're going to continue post-election every Tuesday and Thursday. Wow. I do it with my son. It's a lot of fun. We started with nothing, and we have almost 150,000 subscribers. That's amazing.

That's amazing. We'll be sure to check in for that. What time was that? 7 o'clock tomorrow. And regularly after that at 9 o'clock, Easter, at Alan Lickman, YouTube. We have a lot of fun with it. Thank you, Professor. Appreciate you, you, guys.

Take care. Donnie, keep it running real quick. Why did you, why did you ask him again what time it is? I didn't hear the first time. Yeah, but they heard. I really thought he didn't say it.

That's why I was like making sure. Well, she got him to clarify that it's Eastern time. Thank you, Don't know. It's, it's, it's. I really was like, what's how? I heard nine. You're not listening to the guests? Like, what's going on here?

I'm just joking around. All right. We're going to take a break. Thank you to Professor Lickman. We're going to take quick break. This episode is brought to you by Sweet Cream. The day doesn't ask for permission. Lunch window?

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We've sticking. We got so many interviews. coming in hot. We're giving you the two shot. Woo! Actually, the three shot. Because who's name is here? You guys are three shot right here. For those who are watching right now, we're staying side by side. Lou Wayne. Talk about some other things real quick to break up the election coverage right here on the election alive.

Shuck and Jive like coverage. Lil Wayne had maybe the most memorable Louisiana festival of all time last night. It's a festival he does down there in my home. state of Louisiana, Louisiana Festival. You were supposed to give me tickets. Oh, I didn't remember. I didn't remember. Yeah, I didn't remember about that. The Hibboys came out. That was a big deal.

The Hibboys reuniting is a huge deal. You guys don't know nothing about that. You know me. Can't get caught without my tap. Loaded. V-D. I'm itching to say, I got you. B-D. Label us a bus bag, nigga. With the crone, cut your heat. Fuck that

nigger. If I do hit you up and you get another 10, that's my ad, nigger. You can check out. the hot boys performance. Cut that nigger. I put it on my first born. You don't know, what song is that?

I don't know that song. Sorry, I don't know every hot boy song, but I like the hot boys. Can you back? Then aim, bust and release, 50 flame heads hang, bullets slain like crack cocaine. 50 niggas always ride with little wing.

Oh, so. So, Wayne talked about the fact that he didn't get the Super Bowl, which is really on Wayne's mind. Wait, were you surprised that he talks about it? Yeah, yeah. You sound bothered that he talked about it. Let's run the clip real quick.

Donnie, run the clip for him. During my lifetime, the first Super Bowl was here. I made sure I bought tickets at the beginning of the season. And, you know, I did the same when I moved to Miami. And I was wishing my team making it. And guess who made it that year? the motherfucking saints. I was able to give my mama that sweet.

She was able to bring my family and other people from New Orleans and they had a fucking ball. That moment I said to myself, I want to be on stage for the Super Bowl one day in front of my mom. And I worked my ass off

to get that fucking position and it was ripped away from me. but this motherfucker fucking moment right here they can't take that man they can't take that for me Super Bowl was ripped away from him he says yeah ripped away

uh say this Louis Wayne's a treasure he's one of the most important cultural figures in Louisiana history that's true people don't look at it like that why not I'm telling you right now if I was to put

little Wayne and Louis Armstrong in the same sentence. See what you just did? See what you just did? In terms of relevance and musical and cultural relevance in Louisiana, I put someone like Louis Wayne in the same category as someone like Louis Armstrong. Now, I'll say this. Jazz itself being as big of a deal worldwide, a worldwide phenomenon.

In fact that New Orleans and Bennett Jazz and all of that, something you can't really compare to anything. But when you think about a singular figure in music, particularly in genre that is as big a deal as Louisaine became from right there in Louisiana, to me, especially with what hip hop is, for Wayne that's been the number one hip hop star ever. And he's from right there.

I put him up there. He is that important to me. I say he's as important to Louisiana. as Louis Armstrong, I could see one day an airport or a stadium or something being Duane Carter Airport Stadium, whatever. That's how important Wayne is. I don't know if I agree with that latter part,

but I do agree that I would put them in the same category for sure. The only reason I like sighed or kind of like took a deep breath is because I was thinking I can see why somebody would disagree just because Louis Armstrong came first and different barriers that he broke down that are different from Wayne, but I would absolutely put them in the same category. And I think also we have a little bit of bias

being from the South. And I'm not saying, obviously, his name is much bigger than that. He's an international star, but I'm just saying being from the South and what he represented when he came out and the Hot Boys came out and just the entire cash money and everything that represented

cash money records, there's a little bit of bias there too. But I would not disagree with you. I would say that Loule, other than the naming of the Air. Will Wayne is almost, little Wayne is the father of post-modern rap. I agree.

Wayne and Kanye. Okay. So all of that stuff, right? But what's wrong with what he said? Having said all of that, that's bullshit. That it got ripped away from him? That's bullshit. It's bullshit.

Didn't get ripped away from him. That didn't happen. Tell us what happened then. What happened is the Super Bowl decides. Jay Z and Rock Nation in the NFL, people decide. who is going to perform at the Super Bowl, and they didn't decide that Little Wayne was going to do it. Had Little Wayne been given the Super Bowl,

and then they said, hey, you don't have it anymore, we're going to take it away and give it to Kendrick Lamar. Then it would have been ripped away from him. Correct. It wasn't ripped away from him. Nothing was ripped away from him. I am always so impressed by the amount of entitlement that rapper show.

I am. I'm always impressed by it. Rappers, we got to appreciate rappers more because the moment we stop appreciating rappers, rappers start doing, boy, when the roar of the crowd ain't around no more,

a lot of times these guys say ridiculous stuff, and he got the roar of the crowd right there. Yeah, he's in his, he's in his city. I know, so nothing was ripped away from Wayne. No one loves Wayne more to me. Nothing was ripped away from him. I thought he should have got it to to, but nothing was ripped away. Mentally, it was ripped away from him.

In his mind, the moment that he knew, because I forget how many years they announced where the Super Bowl is going to be, I am sure the moment that he found out, New Orleans was hosting the 2024 Super Bowl, he thought this will be my time. And I am pretty sure that prior to everything that has gone down with Kendrick Lamar and Drake,

I think an argument could have been made that he might have been the one. We have no idea if there were some premature talks about who was going to be performing at the Super Bowl, it is extremely logical to think. And for Wayne to believe that he was, if not the number one, a top contender to be performing.

Not if he wasn't told that. I'm just, as I said, it was mentally ripped away from him. I don't think he was actually told that. But for him to think that is a logical thought to me. Now, with everything that has gone down in hip-hop this year, Kendrick Lamar is way more relevant right now and has way more of a crossover appeal than Wayne has

and it makes all the sense in the world if you want everybody to be tuning in watching the Super Bowl especially like coming off of what Usher did if you want everybody talking about it if you want everybody coming together to sing one song that means more than just them singing it it brings up other conversations. Kendrick Lamar is the natural choice.

Now here's my question for you. What? If Kendrick asked Wayne or somebody from Cash Money Records to be a part of his show, do you think they'll do it? No. Okay. You can't let Kendrick bring you out in front of your own city. When you said it like that, it sounds so bad.

You can't let Kendrick bring you out. You can't be in New Orleans and then let Kendrae be like, hey, New Orleans, it'll probably be somebody else. It'll probably be, I mean, they'll be New Orleans people. They had John Battis, somebody like that. But you can't. No, he's like a bring John Battis. out. He's not going to bring John Battiste out.

You think that's, I'm trying to see how it would fit into the show. I think John Battis is going to be there. Love him. You think he's going to be a part of Kendrick show? I think he's going to be a part of the show. What if he brings out some other Louisiana artists? Like who? Like Busy?

I don't think Busy going out there. Where's Webby? I don't think they're going, I think Busy going out there for the Super Bowl. I don't think that's happening. Boosy was on, a Boosie was on a, a 20V1 a second ago, and he was explaining the slang term that we call Asian people

in Baton Rouge. He's right that they call them that, but I don't think Boosie's coming out at the halftime of the Super Bowl. Okay, that makes sense. Hurricane Chris. But maybe no limit. I was trying to see no New Orleans people, but you're...

So here's the thing. Master P is the I think he's like the ambassador of entertainment for the Super Bowl for the now if he has Master Pee and him to come out they might do it right and I think if P&M were to come out and they were to do make them say something like that or whatever

then that might sting a little bit if you knew the history between No Limit and cash money absolutely that might sting a little bit but look there has to be some, and I'm not from New Orleans.

I'm from Baton Rouge. Okay? Now, if we did the Super Bowl in Baton Rouge, you're probably going to get Boosie. You think the NFL, though, with all the damning things he said. Baton Rouge was sneak boozy. It's just a different place.

First of all, if they did the Super Bowl and Baton Rouge, we'd have to do it at Memorial Stadium. And, you know, it's just, it's also never going to have to have. Can you imagine the Super Bowl and Memorial Stadium? The same place that Capitol plays McKinley every year. if they still even do that. But Boosie would, we'll sneak Boosie in. Guys, Boosie can't be problematic enough

not to be loved by Baton Rouge. This is what it is. And he's incredibly problematic. And but he's from the soil. But this right here, I don't know what Wayne's going to need to get the love, because I don't know if he feels the love,

that Super Bowl's a cherry on top in terms of feeling that love and that way. He's never getting over this. Probably not. But I think that if the hot boys actually go on tour, that love, he'll feel that love. They should go on tour. I want a hot boys album.

I want Hot Boys merch. I want these brothers to get back together and go on tour. You see what I'm saying? It's me that's creeping through the back, in the back on black, less old judge. With the mask, I put back in the stuff, but see that, not that nice, not that nice. Why is that the voice?

Why's that your rap voice? Not that nice. When I'm up by the mirror I won over nigger With 18 willers Sold your Ferrella I want you what you buy for to Hit the beef

Donnie say to help please Get your good Chopin'all For the dude Niggas drive like what I sang Whatever I don't know that about that

Mother fucking hot boys You don't even know these records Real quick Joel Embed And Jason Kelsey Athletes attack Joel and Bede and Jason Kelsey Both got into altercations

Jason Kelsey's we saw it on camera Did you see this? Joel and Beads There must be video of this but I haven't seen any Yeah I couldn't find any of it Both over jabs about their family At a Penn State game Jason Kelsey's brother

Travis Kelsey was called a slur Jason Kelsey grabbed the gentleman's phone that called him the slur before repeating the slur and then threw the phone on the ground smashing the phone that's I don't care what you guys say

everyone says he stood on business did stand on business he stood on business and wrote the law that is in fact a charge that is robbery that is assault whatever it was deserved but it's facts

Joel and B shoved a columnist Marcus Hayes, who wrote this about M.B.'s professionalism in a recent column. Joel M. B. consistently points to the birth of his son, Arthur, as the major inflection point in his basketball career. He often says that he wants to be great and have a legacy for the boy named after his little brother who tragically died in an automobile accident when M.B. was in his first years of 76er. Well, in order to be great at your job, you first have to show up for work. Embed has been great at just the opposite.

God damn, Marcus. Marcus, you're you fucking crazy? It was unnecessary. And that's putting it lightly. Do you think that Jason Kelsey and Joelle and B were right to lay holy hands on these different people? Well, what did Joel? Alessly pushed him, right?

Pushed them. He said, obviously this guy was going to be on his radar after he brought up his son and his brother. Joel apparently got him. And he said, the next time you bring up my dad, brother and son, you're going to see what I'm going to do to you. This is a great. I'm going to have to live with the consequences. And Marcus was obviously trying to get some sort of reaction, maybe not necessarily from Joel, but definitely from the Republic.

I mean, from the public, there was no reason for him to mention his son and his brothers who share the same name, his brother who has passed away, son named after him. No reason for him to do that to call him out on his play or his performance or the lack thereof. There was no reason to equate the two. This was tacky. This was unprofessional. And I'm sorry, like, to talk about family, but also a family member who is no longer here, who Joelle M. Bede has been very vocal about how difficult that was and is for him.

It's so unnecessary. It's not like, I wouldn't even, I wouldn't even be shocked if, like, who does he work for Philadelphia, Inquirer took action against him. It's just so bad. Like, that's something that shouldn't be done. But against the columnist? Well, do I, like... The column already went up and they hadn't done anything.

Yes. He should be suspended. A little time out. What about the hands getting put on? For Joelle? Do you think that this was both guys? Oh, for Joelle? I mean, I'm never saying, like, violence is the answer,

but I don't know how I would not have a strong reaction when I saw the person who disrespected me and my family and the memory of my brother in such a way. He shoved up. Just a little shove. I'm not saying I condone it, but I totally understand that way more than I understand what Jason did. I understand Jason taking up for Travis, but I think if I had to say one went too far, that one. Do you know what a big part of life is?

I talked about safety. Another big part of life is about consequences. It's about whether or not you can handle the consequences. consequences for what it is that you do and what consequences are worth it like negotiating consequences very important okay when you're a kid your parents give you your consequences you decide whether or not you can live with them when you're adult society gives you the consequences and you decide whether or not you can live with them right it's very important to be able to do that here's the thing i have no problem with someone doing what they think they have

to do i actually think uh a a smack on the mouth is not the that bad of a thing. I really do. I really think that. I think that there gets to a point to where you've tongue-rousled enough and you've gone back and forth enough and there's just a point where you go, if you continue on your present path, I must hurt you. I've tried. I've tried to appeal to your better nature. I've tried this. I've tried that. But if you continue on your present path, you must feel pain to know that I have limits and boundaries. Now, when you do that, there is consequence. There is legal consequence.

There's consequence to how you're going to be perceived as a brute, as a bully, as whatever. And then there's also civil consequences. So if you're going to go to that length, then you got to be ready for it. Whatever happens to Jason Kelsey and whatever happens to Joel and Bede, they earned those consequences. However, I am wary about living in a world where you can say whatever you want to say to someone no matter how vile, no matter how mean, no matter how insensitive, no matter how off color. And they just got to fucking take it. I agree with that. Like, that's not the world that I'm from. I do not know that world. And so I personally think,

I mean, there are things that you can say to me. where if you're in my face and you say them, there's going to be an issue. It incites violence. There's going to be an issue. But once you do that, you then have to live with that. Sure.

With that. So everyone's saying that nothing should happen to Jason Kelsey, nothing should happen to Joe L&B because the people went too far. That's not realistic. They endeavored into that and whatever happens to them now is the same thing as the guy who wrote the comic.

Has anything come out where, you know, the guy who had the phone is going to press charges or even Marcus Hayes? I don't know. I don't know. what's going to happen. I don't know what's going to happen. But even the, whether or not we want to give any societal, you know, how you want to view Jason Kelsey or how you want to view Joel and B. Probably hasn't changed and probably won't change. Right. But if these guys

decide that they want to press charges or sue or whatever, hey, that's the way it goes. That's what you, that's what you signed up for. They can. Sometimes, you know. But I just hate the fucking situation where you allow to sit in somebody's face and call them out their name or do all kinds of stuff and then run back to, oh, this is civil. Neither one of these things that they did to these guys were civilized. It wasn't civilized to call that man that. It wasn't civilized to bring that man's up. So why do I have to be civilized in return? I don't agree with it. People can call me whatever I want. I don't agree with. I'm not that. That's why. No, you shouldn't be able to do anything with people. Like, there should be a consequence for you to disrespect, if you're going to disrespect somebody

in the ways that these two individuals did. But I think Joelle and B. And Jason Kelsey would do it again if the same thing happened. I think they would stand on exactly what they did. This episode is brought to you by Spectrum Business. Fast, reliable Internet means everything for your business. And even this podcast, that's why I trust Spectrum Business.

They keep companies of all sizes connected with Internet, advanced Wi-Fi, phone, TV, mobile services, plus 24-7 U.S.-based support. millions of business owners already trust Spectrum business. So visit Spectrum.com slash business to learn more. Restrictions apply. Services not available in all areas. For adults with Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis symptoms, every choice matters. Tramphaya offers self-injection or intravenous infusion from the start. Tramphia is administered as injections under the skin or infusions through a vein every four weeks,

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vaccine. Explore what's possible. Ask your doctor about Tramfaya today. Call 1-800-526-7736 to learn more or visit Trimfair Radio.com. Did you watch the Meg, the Stallion documentary? I went to the premiere, yeah. You went to the premiere? Mm-hmm. Black woman supporting a black woman from Texas in the go-out. Oh, wow. What'd you think? I kind of was wondering like what what is this I didn't even know about it until I heard about the premiere and I was wondering what all this would be and how much new what would we learn that was new I guess because so much of it played out with the trial we learned so much with testimony from witnesses from Megan herself that I didn't think it would be anything new but it was really revealing and I really loved how vulnerable she was, but then also how she was not afraid to call people out

for the lack of respect that she receives, particularly from black men. Okay, what? Because I've seen a lot of direct talk. Donnie, can you play the clip? I remember he texted my phone and was like, I'm watching you on live. He looks so sad.

And I was like, This motherfucker is crazy. I finally had to get a new number. I got him on phone. And I got a restraining order. Going to Rollin' Loud. He came on right after me. I get somebody out here a million dollars

if they get to get to where in here. Y'all make some motherfucking noise with Troy Lacks. You thought that you could pass me up in a mask. You was just trying to show me we could do whatever we want to do. And then he was chopping up horse legs in his music videos. Oh, look at the horse leg. That's a horse leg, bro. I think it's making's leg.

They said like the HGS special. What is that? The Hot Girl Special? Is it Hot Girl Summer? That's really fucking sick. He was constantly threatening me and everybody was laughing and everybody was supporting him.

Leyen is publicly speaking about how good Torrey Lane's music is. He's a solid dude. I'm fucking Troy. Free, free my boy, man. Free Tori in the fucking chat, bro. Free Tori Lane's two one time. Why did all the men in the industry

decided they needed to jump in? you most disappointed about when she ran down that list of people? LeBron. LeBron James. Within that, you don't hear, like, there's Chris Brown, there's DeBan, there's a baby, there's somebody else that I can't remember. If you see the clip, you'll see some of the people, but they're black men. And hearing her also add context to Tory Lane's in videos chopping up horse legs,

and while she was on live texting her, threatening her to the. point where she had to get a restraining order. This was all very public and out there. And this is also in addition to him shooting her in her feet. You know, like all of this is out there. And LeBron James positions himself, and I'm not saying he's not, but he positions himself as a family man. He is married.

He has a daughter. And then you're on social media jamming Torrey Lane's music, talking about how great and how cold he is after the fact of. what he did to a black woman. You don't get to be both. You don't get to, you know, represent yourself as one way and how you stand with black women and how you're for them. But at the same time, big up a man who's done nothing but disrespect black women and brags about it in such a vile way. I'm not surprised that that's the, that LeBron James did that. But I'm very disappointed. Why? Why aren't you surprised? Because black men, particularly,

a lot of people, black men with platforms, seem to excuse or put aside what black women go through emotionally. And Drake was also in that clip. Okay. So. They all excuse each other. Okay. LeBron, the baby, Drake, all of those people

where whatever they did, disgustingness, there are so many black men and so many black men with platforms who stood up for Meg who did not, I think it's unfair to say that black men and black men with platforms did not support.

I'm generalizing. We said on this podcast, but I'm not going to say these five men. But those types of, but I don't, just like I wouldn't abide by someone saying black women do this and then like putting it at the feet of all black women, I don't think that that's fair.

Okay, I'm not, obviously, like, Let me go back. I'm not speaking in absolute fear. No, I stand by exactly what I said. I'm talking in general. These are black men with a platform. We've talked about black men constantly on this podcast about how because you feel a certain way in society or that society has treated you, that you tend to gather around each other

or take up for each other. And sometimes that is at the expense of black women. We talked about Megan the Stallion and everything that happened, a lot on this podcast. And you were continuously seeing in the comment sections in social media, YouTube channels. You'll see it in that clip.

Like, people with these platforms, not just the people I name Black men, questioning Megan, putting Megan down. I'm just talking. You can be defensive. I'm not saying every single black man. I'm not being defensive. You are.

What I'm saying is, what I'm saying is, I wish I had the clip in front of me because it was so, and we talked about it. Like you got on to what we were saying. There were so many black men. And maybe that's how you want me to say.

There were so many black men who were questioning her and not giving her the benefit of the doubt. There are also so many black women that are doing just the same thing. What you just said is a defense. It's not a defense. I'm saying that. I don't think it's fair. Imagine if you said something. And then I also said, well, black men also do this.

So let me ask you a question. Give me one thing in the history of this podcast that I have attributed. to black women as a whole. Give me one thing in the history of this podcast of all my personal experiences with black women with things that I see black women do, like as a whole that I attribute to black women. I'm going to tell you why I'm not going to do this.

You can say you're not being defensive, but you totally are. Oh, no, I'm defending black men because I think it's unfair. I'm not saying every black man did it. I'm saying if you see that clip, you will see a litany of people with platforms questioning. That was the point.

of the clip. And my whole issue is, I'm not saying every black man. I'm saying there were a lot to the point where she had to address it in this to where it became a point of conversation. You can roll back tapes on our podcast where we talked about the way

you had a whole speech about the way men. And it was black men. It wasn't white man because this was a cultural thing. Black men were treating Megan in this. You, your own self, you can be defensive now about it. Because you think, because I said it

a general way, but I'm speaking to that point in the documentary. So this is what I'll say. We can move on. I want to belaborate. I think it's fair to indict the black men as black men. To say, hey, you guys are black men, this is the way you feel. But

when you say black men with platforms, black men with this, man, I saw Charlemagne stand up for men. I saw Slim Thugs stand up for men. He just did it again. I saw myself. I saw Bum B. I saw so many black men with platforms stand up for Meg, I've also seen increasingly, there's all different types of

people. There's specifically a, there's definitely specifically a certain type of person that is on Tory's side, definitely. However, I do not think it's fair to say, to generalize and say black man when we're talking about that, because it just, once again, like, as a brother, as a black man, I realize man, I'm doing my best. I'm trying. But I'm going to be honest with you, dog. I am starting to get tired of getting kicked to my nuts.

It's offensive. I'm not kicking you in your nuts because you're not a part of what I'm talking about. If it doesn't apply, let it fly. We're literally, the whole point, you didn't see the documentary. The whole point of that entire segment is to show this contrast

of how certain people were talking about her and not protecting her. I'm not saying every single person. I think you did an amazing job. of holding people accountable and really speaking to what happened and protecting Megan in that moment. That clip was not about the use.

It was about particular people and you asked me who shocked me and when you talk about a certain type of person was supporting Tori Lanes, I would not have put LeBron James as that person. Me neither. Which is the original question that you asked me. All right, speaking of a...

I got another black man who was big time supportive of Meg Dostalia has a gigantic platform. New York Times best-selling author, senior contributor, former South Carolina congressman, Bacari Sellers, is joining us right now. Bring Bacari in right now. Let's do it all in real time, Donnie.

Just bring Bacari in right now. We've got to talk about the election. B.S. B.S. Bacari Sellers. He's waiting for us right now. He is... I mean, where do y'all think I'll are? The best podcast on Spotify? You just got me over here waiting.

Wow. What the fuck I'm talking about? Wait a minute. That's what I'm talking about. Baccarre, what time did you hop in? Don't take no shit. What time did you hop in? I was here at 1.35.

Liar. You had us waiting. We had to keep it moving. I'm just telling you. Bacari Sellers working overtime right now. Brother, thank you for joining us on Higher Learning today. It's always a pleasure to have you on, my brother. Oh, man.

Thank you for having me. I love two beautiful black people, me and Rachel. And then here is just my southern brother is just kind of gravy. I'm glad to be one in the number. Baccarry think

Baccarus on top of the world right now because Lenora Sellers in South Carolina did they thing on Texas A&M. You can't tell them shit right now. We actually, we technically should be

a one-lost team. The ref, we got more, we should have beat LSU, the rest took out away, and then we had Bama down in Bama and lost that. I mean,

we honest with you. We should have won, huge LSU fan won't argue with you. They outplayed us. How about that? Yeah. You guys have a good football team down here, though. I mean, it's not what you used to, but you got a good rugged football team down in Baton.

Now, let's talk about it. Okay. As we speak right now, record on Monday. However, this is going up on Tuesday. What does the Harris campaign have to do in the waning hours of the election to close the deal in Bacarie Sellers' opinion? Or has the deal already been closed? No, the deal is not closed, but the fundamentals are on track.

Everything's on track. There are, I mean, we can go kind of where she needs to be in Georgia, for example. In Georgia, which is Richmond County, Chatham County, that's Augusta and Savannah, respectfully. Clayco has to step up a little bit. But what we've seen in Georgia is all of the rural counties and Republicans, voters are in, and there still is a lot of ground to be covered by Democrats. And so I expect that to happen. In North Carolina, we need 300,000 more black voters to show up.

That's Mecklenburg County. That's Raleigh-Durham, Winston-Salem, Greensboro, and then over there behind God's back, those little small countries, areas on the East Coast, Paso Tent County, et cetera, where you can gin up that black vote. And then you get to the major cities, Milwaukee, Detroit, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh. those cities have to do what they did. You were on a CNN roundtable panel, and everyone on that was saying it's a tie, it's too close to predict. But you were confident.

You were like, nope, Harris, can you tell everybody why you are confident that Vice President Kamala Harris will take the election? Yeah, I don't have any concerns, really. I mean, I think that this is a better situation than we were in even in 2016. I firmly believe that we're in a good space in the blue wall. And we can stop going off a polls, too, because we actually have voters who've cast ballots. And so we know where these votes are. We know who these voters are. We know how many votes we have in the back.

We know all of those things. And so right now we're just trying to make sure we meet our number, get to the number where you want to be. It's going to be a red mirage later tonight, since we're talking like it's Tuesday. And a red mirage means that there are. going to be, it's going to look as if there have been a ton of Republican voters until these absentee ballots are actually counted. And you will begin to see those things change. It happens in Pennsylvania more than anywhere else because the votes will be tallied for the Election Day voters and then the votes will be tallied for the mail-in absentee ballots. And so on Election Day,

Republicans will do well, but you'll see the stream of votes come in. And I think Milwaukee, excuse me, I think Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, go for Harris and I think Georgia and Nevada also go for Harris and maybe even North Carolina. Wow. What do you think the Harris campaign has successfully been able to do in the short time that they've had the nomination? What do you think the strengths of the campaign have been, and if there have been any weaknesses, what do you think those are?

Well, the weaknesses are the time. I mean, it's hard to run a campaign for president. since July 21st. But I've never seen anything like this, but the Harris campaign alone has spent $1.26 billion. That's since July 21st. I mean, that's unheard of.

They've outspent the Trump campaign. One of the things that we've done way better than them is have a ground game. I mean, you can't advocate your duty of having a ground game to Elon Musk and Charlie Kirk. That's just, I mean, outside of November.

that in Georgia, where the governors of those respective states have some imprint on the ground game, it's light years difference. And you're seeing that. I mean, you're talking about knocking on hundreds of thousands of doors over this past weekend in battleground states, whereas, you know, you read the articles about Elon Musk having people in vans that aren't getting paid, that don't have housing, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And so I think that's something that they've done extremely well. They've also, this race was weird at the beginning because it was about defining who was the incumbent. And so the Republicans wanted Kamala Harris to be the incumbent because of the, of the, you know, Biden Harris. How were you better off four years ago? And then there was the

Democrats trying to portray Donald Trump as the Republican, as the incumbent, excuse me. But, and I think we actually won that because people know absolutely everything there is to know about Donald Trump. So Kamala Harris is able to be the change candidate. Any surprises that you're seeing that are in Kamala Harris's direction? Like, for example, I know the talk this morning seems to be the new poll showing that Kamala Harris is competitive in Iowa. I know you said we can stop paying attention to the polls, but with information like that, is there anything else that you're like, oh, this is really going in Kamala's direction where we didn't necessarily see that before or did think that would happen. Yeah, so, I mean, this is what I have to tell people.

and this is how when Van sends me these wow text messages at Philip night, this is how you have to kind of respond. The Iowa poll wasn't about Iowa. What's the what are you looking at? It's not wow. You're like you're you're, you are my voice of reason. I love him Bakar goes down.

Baccarry is this, see, this is what I'm talking about, the shame. Baccarry is the smartest political mind that I know. He's the most astute. He's the most dialed in. I know so many. I have different people, and I call Bacari when I need to make sense of stuff, and then what happens? He throws it back in my face, man.

Let me tell you, let me tell you how I respond to how I respond to Van Lathen. Hold on one second. I want to be accurate in this because there are a lot of people who reach out to me and just want to know. And he will send me a text message that says, we haven't spoken in maybe a week. And his text message will be Pennsylvania exclamation point. that's the whole Texas.

What about it? His response is it's a state. And I'm like, it's not even a state, man. It's a commonwealth. Leave me alone. So that is the story of our relationship. I don't know. He's right.

That's fair. But the Iowa poll, no, we're not winning Iowa, right? You're not going to see Bill Clinton or Tim Walz or Kamala Harris go to Iowa. That's just not a. thing that's going to happen. But what it does show you is how white women are voting, college educated white women, independent voters. It's really a shot across the bow into Wisconsin.

And you'll be able to determine a lot from that sales or poll in what's going to happen in Wisconsin. And Wisconsin is going to be the first state that you should get a full and accurate, complete. Outside of Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin is going to be the first blue wall state that you'll be have to get a full and complete report from. I would assume sometime when I'm on TV, Wednesday morning between 2 and 9 a.m.

How chaotic, this is the last question for me, how chaotic will the post-election political climate be in America? It's weird. I mean, we're already boarding up. I was in the studio today. We're already boarding up CNN. We have these big barricades that are like 30 feet out and nobody can come in.

Donald Trump is going to declare victory early before all the votes are counted, they're going to file lawsuits to stop the counting of ballots. The red mirage is something that we got to talk about more. So you're going to see in Pennsylvania where Donald Trump is up based upon election day votes and he's going to say stop the count.

I'm winning. But then you have other votes, which just have to be counted. Same thing in Nevada. And so I just, you know, this also, I caution people on saying this is Donald Trump's last hurrah, because there are people who know who believe that you'll have a Harris versus Trump 2 in 2028. It's terrifying.

He's barely holding on now. Wait a minute, like he's exhausted already. In four more years, he's barely holding on now. He meanders and he sounds like Van Lathen when he's up there giving those speeches. You think the party will rally around behind him again. That's more of what it is. I'm shocked. I don't understand your question, Rachel.

This is the same party who rally behind him. a man who, you know, they said they wouldn't after January 6, right? But with the amount of people that are out there, the Nikki Haley's, the Brian Kemp's, like really solid Republicans from a general electoral standpoint, from a nationwide electoral standpoint, there's going to be no hard pivot if Trump were to lose to push him out or push him aside and bring in the next person. You don't see that happening. They can't, really.

because there's a whole MAGA base. I mean, and what we've learned about the MAGA base is it's only behoaded to one person. All right. That base is not, you know, you get them tickets to say non-transferable. That's like a Trump.

Right. Trump voters come with non-transferable to the tax. So, you said Trump will declare victory first immediately. When do you think the actual election will be decided?

Thursday? Thursday. Friday. Thursday. I think you get a, I think you get a Wednesday, Thursday decision, declaration. Now, the race one, I mean, you won't be president until December 11, 13th or 11th. I can't remember. That's when they certify ballots. And so the kind of weird thing that could happen that nobody wants to happen is you could get a scenario where Kamala Harris wins 270 votes. from the dot and how does she get there? One of the things that happened in this race that not many people know about is there is a state

senator from, he's a Republican state senator from Omaha, Nebraska. Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that allocate their electoral votes by congressional district. They tried to switch to winner take all in the fourth quarter. They tried to switch to winner take all recently. And we all know that winner take all means that in Nebraska, Donald Trump was going to win or all of those. But they review that. And so there's one electoral vote that we're going to win in Nebraska, it's the city of Omaha. That's the congressional seat. What that means is that

puts that puts Connolly Harris from 269 to 270. There is a great deal of consternation and concern and rightfully so that if you win just Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, you get to 270. People will eff you, my kids are around. They don't spell. though, they're in kindergarten. So they both F-U-C-K that won vote, that electoral vote.

And so we want to do everything we can. We really need Nevada or North Carolina or Georgia to give you that cushion above 270. And remember, and this is a confusing thing, people think that the next Congress will

be the ones who decide and certify the election, but it's actually this Congress. Yeah. Yeah. So, so Hakeem Jeffries could be the new speaker come January 20th. And he still has no power in terms of, yeah. Correct. Yeah.

Well, always making us feel good by giving us the real Bacchari Sellers. Baccarat, what are your plans for tomorrow and the rest of the week during the election? People can find you. What are we going to be doing? What's the plan? A lot of Bacari. Bacari season.

Yeah, this is the Super Bowl right here, baby. It's 80,000 people. So I'm probably going to, I need to work on getting this makeup off my face a little better because I went to sleep last night in the bed with some 8th Street chicken. By the way, I don't know if y'all been to D.C., but they got the best chicken, but you wake up with crumbs all over you. Okay. I got to figure out.

I got to talk to Rachel about. An I g-G-G-E-R? Yeah. Huh? I said that's a very, that's very. Yeah, I heard you. That's not a nigger. That was a nigger comment that you just made.

Yeah, I wouldn't say it loud of your sponsors. I didn't know if they heard it. So, like, chicken crumbs when you were. wake up in the bed on you. Okay? Okay. He's tired. He's tired.

Give him some space. I'm actually on, I'm actually on during Kamala's last rally this evening. And then tomorrow I'm on election day. I'm on 6 a.m. to 7 a.m. Then I'm on from 12 to 4 with Jake. And I take a train to New York. And I do the 2 a.m. to 9 a.m. shift on Tuesday night, Wednesday night, Wednesday morning. And then on Thursday, I'm on Thursday a.m. from 12 to 8 a.m.

So got a lot of action. Got long hours. Maybe see, maybe see y'all tomorrow on election day. Maybe. Maybe. Maybe we work it out. But you do know, I do love you, Van. I don't trust Rachel scheduling for anything, though, because. No, Rachel is. My scheduling.

It's not. It's a mess. I don't even know how you do it. I mean, I know that's stressful for you. Oh, yeah. Yeah. If you only know. Second.

Just for that, I will be there. I will make myself available for sure. Did you go to Al Sharpton's? Did you go to Al Sharpton's birthday party? Who's talking to? Yeah. I think you didn't get invited, Van. I was not invited.

I was not invited. I thought it was like Leonardo DiCaprio was there and stuff. We were reading about it. Oh, wow. This morning. Not us. We couldn't even get them to be on the podcast. Rachel would have been,

Chita Gone if she knew he was there. That's her style right there. Wow. Baccarry. Trust me. I'm done. The pitch is shocked to everybody. We saw all in our chat groups.

They were like that. Anyway. All right, Baccarry. We're going to keep up with you this week. Leo anyway. But that's, that's true. That's true.

Appreciate you joining us on higher learning, brother. We'll see what happens this week. We're checking with you later on this week. I appreciate both of you guys. My love goes out to you. I mean, you guys have come a long way to being one of the top podcast on the ringer and definitely the second best black podcast out there. So I appreciate that.

Appreciate you. All right, my man. Bye, bye, bye, bye. All right, guys, that is it for us today. The election of live special is done. Spirited. We dressed up. Shots were fires.

Shots were. By you. Not by me. I'm here for the people. Me, Bacari. The pastor? The pastor?

Yeah. Tough. Look, if you're hearing this right now and you're thinking about not going to vote, you got to get them vote. You have to. You have to. They're going to fight to keep you in line.

You have to fight to not be their patsy. You're an American citizen. This country is there for you. Your rights are important. Your sovereignty is important. Your wants and your needs are important.

But nothing is important if you don't make it important. Get your ass up right now and go vote. Stand in the gap for yourself and for your family and your community and vote. Harris Walsh. No ambiguity. Nope. Well said. Here's Watson.

All right, we're out of here. Take thing, caps off. Do not stop learning. I'm Van Lathan Jr. I'm Rachel and Lindsay. Bye, guys. Disrespect of who did he? Take your thinking caps off.

Oh. Who's going to?