In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen - AI का बुलबुला कब फूटेगा? – रुचिर शर्मा

Episode Date: December 12, 2025

निकोलाई टैंगेन प्रसिद्ध अर्थशास्त्री और What Went Wrong with Capitalism के लेखक रुचिर शर्मा के साथ बातचीत करते हैं। वे मिलकर उन शक्तियों पर चर्चा करते हैं जो वैश्विक बाजारों को बदल रही हैं—अमेरिका की वृद्धि में AI की भूमिका, इस साल यूरोप और चीन के बेहतर प्रदर्शन के कारण, और वैश्विक बाजारों की बदलती गतिशीलताएँ। रुचिर गुणवत्ता वाले स्टॉक्स, ब्याज दरों, टैरिफ़ और टेक बबल के संभावित फटने के समय पर साहसिक भविष्यवाणियाँ भी साझा करते हैं।When will the AI bubble burst? - Ruchir SharmaNicolai Tangen sits down with Ruchir Sharma, renowned economist and author of What Went Wrong with Capitalism, to dissect the forces reshaping global markets. They discuss AI's dominance in US growth, why Europe and China have outperformed America this year, and the shifting dynamics of global markets. Ruchir shares bold predictions on quality stocks, interest rates, tariffs, and when the tech bubble might burst.For english version, tune in on YouTube: https://youtu.be/zOOgmOKEZnw Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hi, everybody, and is welcome to this conversation with Ruchir Sharma's with. And it's a fake background, but it's real. I think it's a green screen with, they're often using. Yeah, it's very beautiful. Now, you're a very deep and karmal of wicharic. And we've, we've met withed and

your book on what went wrong with capitalism? Yes. Now,

one more a year and wow, the world was the world did you

do you what do you what do what was what was what was what happened?

I'm I'm think it is a not, because every place

it's there's there is a government is going going to gohmica

is we're there's a new government. But I think that he's

that the poor thought that the government just just

work and then that should that all place basically

has been there now. Now, the now, the

current government are Deregulation on being he, which

I think is positive but still still if any more in the difficulty, then to help for the Federal Reserve

as a problem see, the biajderen ghataned chathed. I think it is a samanata which I have in my book in aphosos with said, that when you can't

you can't puteat you can't. The other side, the chokim-samajic are. I think that that weishmata up still in system

and this thing I think I'm thinking is. But, you know, you think, that's the last months of about we

we're more what we're about what we're going to do you? Look, all people all people

were in back in but I'm think that in the last time one thing is that

Trump's big to is a AI which now global economy has been

and especially U.S. economy's now U.S. economy now A.I. but a

big down because A.I. in U.S. economy in a lot but it's a I'm going to all the thing is

all the thing is so America the AI on the thing that's a lot of the end up there's any to the end upro all

all the end upro he's going to he's the big factor being uphered. When you're you're in the market in AI's

what you're doing things on you're here there are some there's I think that I think that you AI's the

AI's a artic vicar up there's already as a lot effect It's a lot of how much the

way to know that this year this year this year about 40 percentage economic growth

in America in EI per CAPX has so this a way. The other

other is I think that is that's that's that's it's a amount of

that is wealth effect that's stock market is good are financial assets

are doing, it's so far this this day top 10 percent

people's and top 10% people are in this country are all the consumer are going to do you know, so stock market,

this year, this year, in the stock market, like, 80% bad at AI play play has and in

back, I think, it's actually it's really ameer people are going to do you, so you can't say, you can't,

you can't, say, that's, now, America in, America in maybe 60% economic growth

AI's now, now, this is, the bubble classic syncet be,

financial historian as we're studying but we're studying but but now the bubble not quite so U.S.

in the U.S. in 60% growth AI's but we're what I think it's the company's share price in it's

kind of now? Now AI of the implementation you can see what are the

end up really not. Because AI to appanan abhhhary in the still we

have in we've we've been in the American economy in productivity in a productivity in

What do you think it? It's how it's it? A.I. A. I think that it's a very so. Now, how much

it looks like we this should be. It's, if you're going to if you if you're in the

end of the time in productivity in the same time, and then after the beginning two thousand to

days, it's time it's time it's time like, We don't even know that AI at the end up here. So, I've got to upheumid very we have.

We all have some kind of in some kind of in any way I'm used to try to use but we're sure not know that productivity will be or not.

And this AI to have been the first-whoed big tech revolution tolion in a very very important if I'm

if it's the most of the tech revolution and it's what you mean, if you if you're if you're back-in-uped look at the other

big revolutions have even the bubble been made, if the mosthoor parallel to be back to be back in the 90s of

the end of the end of the end of last 90s and late 90s people this about about this

about the internet they were it's a lot much more ummeid today. Today

survey are that most people people are very people are quite negative and it's

two causes. First, all techno-optimists are you say they're that we'll you'll be a because AI's

a big fide is that labor cost can't be. And the other is the idea is what we're going,

we'll use how do you can't, we're saying, that AI is a guy and if you do you use

not a work can't and people and people I've seen what I've seen, they've

found out of that's just 35% people who are paying for a high Mhousousousous

people want to be it's to some regulate because they they're in the

AI's a lot of there's so if you if you're in the media, you know

if you see the big revolution so people people are very much positive

is what it's what's it's going to it's energy, or then Japan like in the

late 80s in late 80s there's there's there's a thing like other things but I

think that people like people like such in Wow. This is what can't be. Yeah.

Kher, it's a lot of people are worried-hue are. I'm very very much and we're

very much very much are you know, but are you can't be going to be going to be a big thing.

We're we're going to not go to but it's this is a amount of and our work and our work

quality got got got and how we can't we can't we can't do you can't but I'm

can't say you you're saying? So, is this bubble But I think, if you look, if you look, if you look, if you look at four types of O's I say that you guide are, that we have a bubble is or not. Like, me, these four oos are, a overinvestment. If you are AI in the investment to look at, so GDP's as far as the tech investment

is going to look at the level as, as we've seen in the world in, especially in 2000. Today, today, take investment is about 5% of the price of

that's the kind of the way that's a lot of we're going to we're going to we're over-investment

be doing. One bubble a lot of another signet is over-valuation. Now, if any other the U.S.

stock market and, especially, A.I. stocks overvalued he are. Some people say,

valuation abh two $2,000 just mehous than mayhhh. Yeah, some metrics

for it is right, like P-Ratio. But if you price-to-free cash flow or long-a-a-a-dhaarnings look at,

then we're at the same level of we're at a lot so it's right. The third reason is it is that people need to need to get used to

need to be all the same trade and ideas and ideas. And one of the way is it's a simple the way is,

that's all right if you're if you're if you're if you're if you're financial wealth to look

then Americans to Americans have almost $2% financial wealth equities in this

2,000 level than more and people are people are madly trade are the same, the fourth,

are often over leverage to do you where the whole system in the leverage higher than

the way. In the evidence is mixed because the companies are the companies

have been up to have been there's you know, these companies very high

free cash flow generate can't but this thing is very soon

How are it? If you look, if look, if they're the most debt issuers, META and Amazon, they're

they're going are going to because A.I. A.I. HATI. Rays and thinking, that's a

risk is that if we're if we're not going to do, then I think to checkpoints so.

So, what you see, you know, these companies are What's going to do you know what's going to be? Yeah, I'm like, what's going to be the last year Sunder Pichai's bian, where he said, that we're going to be a big risk that we're not to invest in, but it is that we're come invest

to pay. So, I think that now, now, AI, in the same invests'clock to be the same thought. And a big difference, which I've seen, and it's quite delchusp, was that, that in 1990s in the tax investment cycle dhre dhidh. It was the 90s of the shrewart from

from the beach to beatted and then it's been a bit of the investment cycle in the best big up is

two years before GEDP growth in AI and tech Kappex's there was nothbh and now

now are 40% you're doing so it's so it's a big up and very very high

very quick people some people this kind of other pehapes that we tell us, that's the first compared this this time A.I.

A.I. it's a lot of money, and how much money with the finance are being, it's all be very big is.

But what's the way is it. I mean, many people, people are both people and bad bubble can't be a good bubble

because it's a capital is reallocate it, which the sameas the society productivity are going to

do you. So, I think it's right, that's the technology bubble are a much technology bubble are, because in the

is that's it's a that's a lot of any kind of a lot of a lot of things are

things are so he's a real estate bubble is a lot of a lot of yeah and this in you know, as

you said productivity and technology in a lot of so I'm like that this type this type of

this a good bubble is I just I just just that I want to you

what you said that you're that are that are that are that's that are

bureaucracy and state and Is it true? I mean, do we're looking, and if we see it, if you're going to start, if you're from America, U.S. from U.S. in, you know, you're going to be bureaucracies been being? Well, I think that de-regulation and other things of the matter in some slow-down

is. But now, the other thing is, that the American government's companies in the same state stake-le-to-le-in-a-pore idea has. This, man, I mean, the economy in state's involvement of a more a higher-bred-whoop has. My meaning, my part is here is the economy

in state's productivity, growth is a lot of economicism undermined, and inequality has because it's from it's always

the entrenched groups and establishment to find out. And I'm not that this process is a big set up

up up a lot of some kind of somecate somecate like de-regulation and things that are

but the other other side, I think it this idea that the idea that America's America's

take diggaj and everyone want to be because they're not know that's a so I'm like it's

a lot of you're going to see how you see how you see how much I'm actually I'm India's

and you know one thing I'm always much like that was that was India and America and

America's between the part here is that in India in India in any any business

kind of any way the government about some negative not say it. Because they're he's a

because he's a democracy is, but if you're if you're saying, then the government to say you can't use,

it's not a regulatory power to have used. I've got 40 business leaders to meet. Kis'n't

any negative bad. Not any good. There's a way. And only in, and I'm, so I'm,

so I'm always a grower that you want to be, people are, people, If you look at them and you see some meetings

look at the American government where people are sitting around the table were all the end show been made sure, where everyone now is now he's a person who

they're trying to and how they're how they love and it's a lot of a badolav and it is like that I'm in India in India see.

You know, how do you how do you how much is? It's what I'm Kher, I mean, it is, the Sarkar's that if you're if you're a lot

negative say, then they're they're back in, anything can't be what you know. I think it's you know, it's a lot about

it's not? That's the here, here, this is a badlaw. Sarkarke's, do you, do you see the kind of,

do you have, is a bit of this is a kind of, that's the because the tariff policy is very subjective

is, it's the behind there there's any objectivity and science not, it's, you can't

you can't can you can't that what's a tariff to do you, the industry to pay a

and if you want to be a good work and if you need a good and you need, then you need to be

a lot of a lot of a lot of much much might have. Bhalh you have a policy

to offer, you know, but you sort of it's the way to be law that's all

it's all much it's all baded-statism and back-d-d-dackal so. So,

I'm saying it's a I think we're going to dock in the last year I don't think we've got a life in the government

in a lot of a lot of there's a other factors which you're you've got to capitalism why do you

can't work and what's factors are which you are you do you do you can't be

part just that is that's what's just a capitalism in capitalism in capitalism what was

what was my answer my job is that's the government is it's even are like

the book is where capitalism is a work for and I'm

mean, it's a way that's the same way to be a lot of that's a lot of

a capitalist society is just just a way, it's seeing

it's but if I'm if I'm Vietnam or Taiwan like I'm

so I'm so I'm so I'm so I'm in a where people are still in a

Arthic-a-jadies-deen to the right direction in the way for capitalism what is? Capitalism is what I mean people to more arthic-a-jadie-dene, more competition-bidna, baddlauco prothaid-certainer. So I think it's that I'm that I like that is,

that I'm the result of, actually, capitalism is the present-the-sarker in the back-in-womened-the-sistam-were-the-sistam-weree. It's a bad-law-lough-sistam-wee. But the companies'am-wra-rata-go-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha. For me, this capitalism's can't be a good signet not.

America's, I mean, China, you know, Europe in one second, so you're going to how fit it? Kher, as we've said, in many ways,

in Europe, capitalism's, and you're , when you're , you're , where you're , where you're , where GDP in

the same price, to make sure to any capitalist peribhation in much to make, and this is

all right. Europe's about just, This is this is a good thing, as we've seen that we've seen, we've seen the world in the whole in the world's bad-a-artic sub-sudhar

when their health is so we're in Europe in Europe in its some kind of the same year's in Germany in even in the much the fact

fiscal-carched and then even some labor market reform and other things on other things work was, so it's like it when the problems

then reform are, and this matter in classic other than dachshiny nations are as you

know you know, dachshiny Europe of the days of the years of a year, but we saw he's

we've seen, he's he's quite a good he. I think he he had he had

made, and he's and Greece, Portugal, Spain, in the government's

kind of kind of got, but I'm I'm I'm a challenge because

I mean, I mean, actually they have how many muskilled have I mean,

you know, I'm in Europe in life is a lot, but in these countries have done, yeah,

they're not? Yeah, they're not. Yeah, but I'm the whole Uttarie in Europe in

there's not there. I mean, there's a type of crisis not going to have. Life is.

We're not. We've seen. We've got a lot of because he's a lot of there's a lot of people

such in Europe up up there were there. So, so sthity and how much could be

that they're that they're that now Sacht up to after I'm there's a lot of any of course

and there's a great thing. And how big Sanket there's a lot of it's not, that's not, this is the basic

paribhashah but I think that I'm a lot of existential crisis as a mhousous I'mhous like, you know,

Dabos like where everyone Europe to about a lot was a lot of other people and everybody did you know

and this is an investor is an interest as you know as you know this year what's the year's it's a lot of

it's a actual in the America, you know, at least the relative basis on the world's the world's the

worst-of- perform-in-wale it. Very, very astir-jazzed not? Yeah, because the

year's any American exceptionalism trade on that's the that's the way that's the world to

invest in a little place. And it's in this year we've seen this year we're

this year that's all he's made America's better performed. Why? Why?

Why? I think it was one that's a starty point that's all the money in a other way in a country and a way to be in a

way that's not that you know, that America MSCI equity index in their weight the weight the year's to look back

70% to the dollar also overvalued was overvalued so it's so it's just a kind of correction is

and many countries are making some that they're that they're that they're that they're again, Europe in

even in Europe's in but even Germany is and said, we're going to say, we're we're going to have a lot,

we're going to do you, labor market or do you know, or deregulation to doggulation in other. Other,

in many countries, like China, I think there there a very badlaw was. China hasas was, that if we're

we're in America to make a , then we're having a private sector to support to side-deen have been

big bad that was that's the way he's the way he's the way that she's being used to

but I'm think it's there's a there's a back back in and this year, and this year,

the same Alibaba's this stock two-guna had. You know, what's why why

why why this was why why? Kherh, A.I. KATH, China, economy is very

much much in, if you can't the economy all the economy all the economy is all not good

is, property market doped have seen like the way that how they're

all they're very much stress and I'm think that China's a idea that's a

kind of existential that's America's to make the way their way and tech and there

here we've seen we're there this a big catch-up was I'm like we've

seen that January in January deep-seek moment this year in a very much

a much a lot And I think that China in China it's a lot so it's two things were the

economy was very difficult and two Xi Jinping was that AI is a big thing is

and tech big thing and they have a good a good tech sector is

you are you are you see that we're not not look up because that was a

type of wake up call was a US in US in AI stocks and can't

dramatically react and then recovered and we we're we've got in the United States of course.

Because if you're... It's not that they're not going to. No, but if I'm I'm actually, I'm actually, in some metrics in Chinese LLM models

like U.S. to reach up. I mean, virtual convergence has. And the realchus part is, that they're just

like, they're just like one-fanch-a- because America in America in Cap-Ex spending to

is a half a trillion dollars to have reached. In China, in AI, the cap-X is about

$1 billion is. So, it but I'm I think I think it's that America in America's

what is the AI on it's a way that it's a kind of people who

need to be there's I'm going to be the question not that is the question

when the interest rate and the and in the history

is a way that is that the interest rate after end end

after end right why? Now, rates why? If inflation

If inflation why will why are? If the economy if you're in this matter of the first thing, the first thing

here inflation from the first is a lot of the first thing, as you know, as you know, the Fed's not a lot of

five-salt-salt from their two-prat- target's-to- and the next year, and the same-Pretion than three-Pretion

less-per- -re-re-lug- Fed, in this mahal why is why I'm pretty much I'm all right,

but they're This is this is in the White House in the Fed's historical reaction function is that they they're a little

bit of a issue of being react but when things are going to never be react not can't

and it's very much if you see if you see what the Fed has started started to

do you need to be they need need to need to and the main reason is that

the bazaar there's a little uph uphhh but again as the market some hald made,

the Fed up again is signal is that yeah, the December rate cut

can't it. It's just it's just it's a fact that it's a but if

if you're going to because the end up that's a lot of so AI and

other things and FACX and Fed says, okay, we have we have need to

because we're not we're we're not we're not we're just we're not we're

we're just we're just we're aphodability problem I'm. I think that that he's

all over-investment AI bubble futeed. Come-independent Fed about you're what you're I think that come-independent

Fed, so here two things are two things, is the Fed in the Fed should be should have,

I'm think it's but I'm the other I'm not there's there's two difficulties.

One of the thing is that it's not a just that I have said, as we're here,

we're here here, we're here, you're just you want to you can't do you, so you're

you're we're going to socialize kind of this is a asymmetry which is a new thing. The other thing is

the Fed is the same should be able to if you're going to look at all the Fed up-cull to make a lot of inflation target

from a quite big antar's if you're see the line in two percent inflation versus Fed in the actual

in actual in the actual in it, so it for it's for it's for this for it's just a

reform is and other way of some people have said that mission creep to come to come to do you have

I mean, FAD everything can't, like, like the market to docket in or

monetary policy the area from out of things to do you, I think, I think it is a

fad in subhawr need, but it's thinking, that's mean, end-independent

FAD. And I'm really not what it's what it's what's what I mean, as I

said, I said, I said, I FAD policy's a big fan not I'm so- I'm in

subhs for sure, but, but But SUDHAR, you mean you're interest rate come to care. Because it's the you'll get a

cost of the cost of it. So, I think that it's a good policy is. So independence and SUDHAR in BADARM you've been

a lot of money did it. Now, you know, how you see? Kew, this year, this year, this year, this year, all the U.K.,

Japan, and even in France in all the countries, the huge cost of cost is, they've got a time, it's a

mudda been and them in all the place in some way to react to react to

it's a why? Why? Why? Why? I'm not it's the two

reasons. One is the AI in much much is a lot of there's a type of is a

way, and America in America in even a lot money is a lot of a lot of this.

Because America AI in the same so it's the America in productivity in better subhard

will. This high-productive subh, GDP's more than the cost of , we're must have done

to help. And the third thing, the most of the most very high-rearanny is, that this

year, this year, this year, this year, but it's much much having been much,

a lot of tariff, right? Tarrif, absolutely. So I think... Yeah, their tariff

were profitable are. Yeah, at the end- short-term in in, up the up, up the up,

so, up to, Ghatte, go to GDP to come to come to make. So if you

if you're going to do you need, you're going to be the market for or bad? I'm not if you

if you're going to the ghates a lot of going to be a lot of positive effect.

Yeah, but I'm not like that the tariff completely are going to have

but I'm like it that's not that this year that this year is this year this year is

that this year is the Here, here, tariff's economic growth on negative effect. It's just AI on the

other things to do you know, and other things, and the business between, ummed, of the way from a lot

to be a lot of going to be negative effect. So, the tariff's not, we're not like it's it's a lot negative

effect, because overall economic nature, the AI's going to be a positive cost of tariff's

to be a newxan kind of can't pay. The last China and between dushmane

in the I think it's a lot I feel like this has felt like especially in America in China on their umed to

come in the time. Because in the year's start of the people's the that China is a big exporter

and they need, it's a American market need to whatever so it so it's

like it's all the power power to America can't but I'm I think that we've seen

we've seen that China's have been more power to have the power if they were rare earths to make a

why the so I'm it's a bad thing that is that is a lot of there's but I'm

like that Trump like people are many people are and they're and they know that

they're co-dependence what is so I'm that's a way is that is that he has

that is it's a very much nearer it and you just just to do you can't

do you can't do you. Ruchirachachar in if you you have to you know, that you're

going to what are the so the important things are what are the I'm going to I'm going to talk about

I'm just about this about this is about this so you're you can't you know, I'm going to

take it? Because I'm all right to all right all right? The question is it is that it can't

be able to can't be able to be able to be able to be able to be able to be able to get to

this is the thing is it's a lot it's not impossible that some bubble can't be but it. But yeah,

we have a type of checklist there's always a lot of any kind of the interest rates going to go up going to be

the moment is that you should be right, now this cycle is now, you're a person who

can't be a and say I can't I'm a safe signet I'm going,

I'm there, and then I'm back back, but I'm another thing I know that I also I'm

to teach to teach I'm because if it is such it's the the same the same

the same the best of the best investment idea. And I I'm I'm

doing it's a big trend to tell to make I'm I think in

$2,000 in quality stock to buy it's a time never

not. But in the past the quality stocks have quite

quality in a factor to work such underperperferfering and and

And the ram-tore-patch growth and investment per's a lot of return with it. Absolutely. Very high-ar-e, and you're high-a-roe, and you're in

valuations and growth like some important things, but you can't see, but I have seen that the past 12 months quality stocks

for the record in the record in the worst-of-mustil may be able to a good time is a good time is a lot of our industry in

our industry in our industry in the same is what we need What we need to buy? One side, AI bubble and other things because everything's all too much

mehunger like. Two-one and oil have been a lot of we're going to be there. What do you? It's always a dark.

So, a prediction. So, do you prediction is that quality stocks will be in favor I'm like, I think that quality stocks

will be sent to be used. I'm just quality-wale need and if this is a big part if I'd like, if I'd like, I'd like, as I said,

I'm saying, I'm going to some, the AI bubble, it's kind of quite, more interest rates, because. Sigh time, I don't know. But I think it, that's a good quality-wale stock

buying, now, is the other thing. And the third thing, that I think is, that is, that international market is U.S. to perform to make, this trend, I think,

that one bar, you're going to be a few-sale trend-bend-bend-bonded. And I'm not like, that it was 2,025, just one-pulled to be it. So, I think that international companies

of U.S. to better this trend, I'm in my Hesapes in 206 in going to be going to be

going to be and we're going, and we'll see these predictions and we'll see how it. Very badia. Thank you, Nikolai.

Thank you.