Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - 104 percent [04.08.2025]

Episode Date: April 8, 2025

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That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks of being with us today.

Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It's April 8th. I believe it's Tuesday. It's 2025. and this would be serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll do the markets. We'll do the economy.

We'll do tariffs. And when we say we'll do markets, the best way I can explain it to you, don't blink. Wait to you hear what happened today. And we're going to be, as usual, serious to the point and pull no punches. We have no choice.

Hope you are listening. And if you do not get this show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed, which is now X. And if you don't follow us on X, you should. If you'd like to email us, just be nice.

So how can I put this? Okay. Let me give you today. The Dow hit 3940. 26 right near the open 39 426 right near the open 39 426 right near the open 39 426 at the open that had the market up about 1,600 points on the open on the open 39 426 it closed at 37645 about 1,800 points drop from about the open. We were up 15 to 1,600 on the open.

The good news is, and I'm not making this up, in the last five or six minutes, the Dow rallied 480 points and was down 320 for the day. it's a sight to behold ladies and gentlemen as the market trades like a penny stock meme stock whatever you want to call it we're up 1500 to 1600 within a few minutes of the close we were down 800 a 2400 or so move and in the last minutes just 480 points you know if they were to let the market stay open for 4,400 or so move and in the last minutes just 480 points you know if they were to let the market stay open for five more minutes. We may have been flat for all I know. The NASDAQ was up 700 approximately. I'm not going to give you exact. Well, we were 16-316 at the high. 16-3-1-6 at the high. I'm writing that down. 16-3-1-6 at the high, we closed at 15267. So we gave back 1,049 NASDAQ points, and in the last few minutes, it also rallied up 200.

That could have been much worse. Why did we gap up so big? Well, we said yesterday we thought a low was being put in, probably get some upside testing. there really wasn't any news. We heard the administration say, well, we've had 50 countries, and then they said 70 countries, and then they said 50 countries calling us. So you know what my thoughts to that are they can't get their message straight, and that's been going on for days. And the market gaps up, and it fell back a little, rallied, fell back, rallied, fell back, rallied, fell back.

And then something happened. First off, by the way, we gave you Florida at the beginning of the NCAA tournament. You know that. And Florida won the game. By the way, I don't think they should have won the game last night. Sometimes you're given the game and kind of Houston gave them the game. But Florida still won. So congratulations to the Gators for winning.

Big congratulations. It was announced today that. since China did not lower their tariffs on the United States, President Trump just raised the tariff on them to 104 percent. And they're saying that this is all China's fault, but China is just retaliating from the tariffs that were put on them. We were told there was going to be negotiations, but they put the tariffs on, and then you talk to us. And China ain't going to go for that.

Listen, I can never go back to China because I've put them down big time, and I am worried that if I walked in there, they put me away. There is nothing. I love the country. I love the people, but I wouldn't trust that government worth anything. Here's the problem. You can take it or leave it. There is no chance this economy won't contract in a meaningful fashion if you kept this tariff on for a month, two weeks. Business will not be able to stand with a 104% tariff with the amount of stuff our businesses buy and get from China. and no chance. And you know what I found out today?

You know, we're always learning. Something I did not know. We're always learning. I found out something today about tariffs, which is really stunning for me because it actually doesn't make sense. And I looked it up just to make sure because it felt like it didn't make sense.

Do you know when a product comes into this country from elsewhere, the tariff is paid immediately? Even if the product isn't sold to somebody else and money came in, and I'm thinking to myself, how can business do that? You get all this product in, you've got to immediately pay the treasury? I didn't know that. I didn't know that. And I looked it up.

And I'm going to look at it even closer tonight. It says under the new system, tariffs will need to be paid up front when goods enter the country. But many importers wait weeks or even months to receive payments from their customers. This mismatches particularly worrying for sectors with tight margins or long payment cycles. I'm trying to measure my words. do these people know what they're doing? Do these people know what they're affecting? Do these people have an idea

that Xi from China is given them the middle finger and is not going to just sit and take it? And we're not taking Xi's side, but we're dealing with reality here. The market has crashed. And it was up 1,600 down points today and finish down 320. And it was down 8.

But don't worry, they'll just gap it up tomorrow. They murdered the oils again, and oil prices came down. They murdered the transports after being up. They murdered the retail stocks. They murdered technology. They murdered an Apple who gets a ton of stuff from there. They murdered Tesla that is also from there. Oh, but don't worry, we're going to get manufacturing.

It doesn't work that way. Do you know how long it will take, if even possible, from manufacturing here? Do you know how lower the costs are getting things from elsewhere because of low price labor? Do you know how long it takes to build factories? This is all well and good to have manufacturing here. I'm all for it. But you cannot penalize our businesses before they get up. This is nuts. It makes no sense. So as we always say, I have no idea what happens tomorrow. I have no idea what the story is. I had no idea they would gap it up today.

I had no idea they would trash it up next. What about tomorrow? This is the one only Investors' Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888422-5-59. That's 888-4-22-55-9. That's 888-4-2-4-2-2-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb Capital Management. Guys, it's no use putting it off.

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Welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm trying to measure my words very carefully. I'm trying to, well, let me unmeasure my words. We told you so. We told you these tariffs are a problem. We told you even lower tariffs are not great. little did we know what would happen last Wednesday in the Rose Garden and just throw the kitchen sink in. We warned you.

We warned you big time. These tariffs make no fundamental economic sense the way they are doing it. Their negotiations are stupid. They make no sense whatsoever. And for the people that have said a lot of things that never came true, I want to know, does the market even believe when they say, oh, 50 countries called us? I sure hope so And yeah there's some countries saying hey we want to sit down

We want to sit down we want to sit down But you know what they've also said? We're not going to kiss your arse You think any leader of any country Who got elected at that country is just going to sit there and take it? Yeah, we're just going to do what you want Do you know they put tariffs on countries that we have a surplus with Do you know the formula they used on the tariffs is just completely wrong, made up. They're using a formula of in and out. That's not

tariffs. That means we buy a lot and the country buys less from us because of how big we are. None of it makes sense. And I got news for you. Screw me. I'm just one guy with a mouth. Do you not think the market matters? I've heard them say, yeah, you just. sometimes need to take your medicine, don't think short term. The market's crashing. It's a crash. This is not garden variety. You've got the most favorite stocks and over-owned stocks and beloved stocks,

and in every mutual fund stocks down 20, 25, 30, 35, 40%, and I have news for you. Yeah, we were in a bearish phase before the tariff. tariffs. But Trump came in and the market was rolling until the tariffs. And I am getting contacts from people I don't know that are sick to their stomach about how much money they're losing while they're being told by the administration, you got to take your medicine and you got to think long term. I got news for you. Every one of you, every one of us think of us. about the here and now. And somebody's half million dollars, that is now $400,000 is not a good thing. So they're messaging.

What the hell? And I've tried to contact them. I can really help them, but to no avail. And as of midnight tonight, a hundred and four percent tariff. if you are importing something from China and paying 50 bucks for it, you are now paying 100 plus, and that other 50 is going to our treasury, which they're saying is terrific.

Hey, look how much money our treasury is getting. But it's a tax. And for administration that says lower taxes is what's going to lead us to Shangri-La. That would be a gargantuan tax, but here's the problem. You know what's going to happen? A bunch of businesses are going to say, don't send it because I'm just going to lose my arse. I can't do this. I can't make money off of this.

I've got to stop. The big companies like Walmart are going to sit there and talk to their suppliers in China. Help us out. you think they're going to help them out to the tune of 104%. Hell no. Small business that gets their chotchkes from China. They ain't getting them chotchkes from China anymore. Why?

Who's got 104% profit margin? Maybe the cocaine dealers from Mexico. We deal in reality here. And as we have said to you forever, we couldn't give a crowd. if it's a Republican, a Democrat, an independent or a Whig Party, we're just going to talk policy. And this makes no sense. And the market had already crashed on tariffs. And now they put another one on.

So the Dow was up 1,600 and finished down 320. The good news is it was down 800 with about 10 minutes to go. The NASDAQ was up 700, finished down 335. The good news is I think the NASDAQ with like a few minutes to go. Let's see, the NASDAQ. 15053. Holy crap. Was down about 530.

Still down 335. But it's just miserable. And then there's the longer-term repercussions if this stays out there. And I have news for you. My guess. And this can be wrong. Because it's just a guess. Do you think a communist Chinese dictator is going to give a crap?

I sure hope he does. What else? The 10-year yield is spiking up. Do you know what we've been hearing from others? Tariffs are not inflationary. Then why is the 10-year yield gone from 3.9 to 4.262 since two days ago. There's another thought process is that China is selling bonds. I can go with that, but I'm not so sure. They would sell in mass like that to take yields from 39 to 4.26 in three days. Not so sure of that. That's not good news. I wish I had better news. You know where we stand.

Before all this, we were telling you about all these areas to avoid except for defensive areas. And on Friday, they mauled those areas. All those defensive food, drug, beverage, tobacco, household products, waste management, drugs and phone companies and some other stuff mauled. China stocks, yonked. Leader Alibaba. Yeah, bye-bye. Boy, was that acting well.

Advance the clients today, 1,091 up, 3287 down on the New York. 901 up 3389 down on the NASDAQ. Up next. What we heard from some people today that I want to vomit. That's up next. on investors edge. It's no use putting it off.

The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com.

code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. that the crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbub.

It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Just letting you know, my father, 93 years old, going to be 94 October 20th. My brother has taken him to the hospital. He has pneumonia. Not a big pneumonia.

Is there a small pneumonia versus a big, but the doctor says it's not a real big pneumonia, something to that effect, but he has fluid on his lungs and around his heart. So they're doing procedures. They say his vitals are good. I'm hauling my butt up to the northeast immediately. And just so you know, I bring my four screens with me. I'm very flexible and versatile with my business.

But that's the story with my dad. You know, when my mom passed on Thanksgiving night, and I talked about it on the show, that I said something to the effect of. I've never been more heartbroken, but relieved at the same time because what she was going through. And I thought maybe I was going to get a lot of hate mail, but there was none.

all love. I have to tell you I'm heartbroken in that my father's brain is functioning very no problem but the body and the his verbiage is now more slurred it's just it's so heartbreaking my father was an amazing athlete had tryouts with the Yankees almost made it and you know as you get older and they get older you go through those motions that whatever it's just who that's it's and my brother i live in florida my brother's there lives five minutes away it's you can tell how the depths of his and how he feels, because he's been around it a lot more than me. A lot more than me.

And we've all gone through it. And the emails I get is my mother lived to 91, my father's 93. Most of my friend's parents died anywhere between 70 and 80. So this is something that we are also celebrating because we, when my mom passed, the first thing I did is I looked at what's a lifespan for an average woman. She kicked its ass. And four months before

I had taken another of the Lion King, she was in good shape and then just quickly after I had an episode. So I mentioned this the other day. I'm already getting a ton of emails. I want to thank you. And listen, I hope he's going to be able to live to 105, but I got to tell you it's just when you hear the word pneumonia, you always hear pneumonia and something happens because of pneumonia.

I hate that freaking word. I do know how to spell the word pneumonia, but I hate that freaking word. So anyway, thank you for the emails I've already been getting, and fingers crossed that they take care of this. And the doctor did say, listen, he's a good vitals and all that. and I'll report back to you. That's the dad. Herb.

Great athlete. Great dad. Great husband. They were married for 68 years. Was in the Coast Guard. Veteran. Live with health issues most of his life and never complain once while I whine about my colds. You hear me on this show.

Well, I got a cold. Anyway. You know, I say it's the cold and flu edition. I'm rooting for this administration, but they have no clue what they're doing with these tariffs. And they've convinced all the people that love them so much that tariffs are the answer. They're the worst possible thing to do. It is such a penalty on this country, and the markets know it. And I'm trying to convince people, please, you've got to be listening to the,

The markets are smart. They're smart. They get it. And I watch some person on TV blasting Wall Street. Wall Street doesn't care about anybody. Oh, yeah, they do. You know what they care about? The money they manage for others.

And when they know that policy is awry, they have to take care. And that's what's going on. I couldn't believe what I was hearing from somebody. And that takes me to some other things. We've always had this line when the markets, bare market, never listen to Wall Street because they are a fully invested vehicle. You need to know that. Mutual funds have to be invested 97% of the time and all that.

I saw somebody today a strategist say, don't make any knee-jerk reactions. What? Because it's only a policy reaction in the market. What? Don't make any knee-jerk reactions. It's the stupidest thing I've ever heard. And it's only policy reactions? What? Hey, kids, please watch the market and pay no attention to what people have to say that are fully invested and have a conflict of interest. You got that? You got that? It's just the policy reaction and don't be knee-jerk. Just remember, the market doesn't care about them, doesn't care about me. doesn't care about you. It's going to do whatever it wants to do based on, based on. And in 08, when everything went down 56%, once it was down 50, they would tell you to sell.

Markets speaking loud and clear, and we listen. And today was another stunning day, but the other way. We've had bad opens and reactions to the upside. Today was a great open and just a sell-off, miserable sell-off, until the last five minutes. Again, the Dow rallied 480 points in five minutes into the close. And I wrote to my peep saying another five minutes will be flat. After the market, I only see if they're doing anything. We're down a little in the aftermarket, which means absolutely nothing to tomorrow's open.

If the president dropped, if the president dropped the tariffs, I would gather, I don't know if we'd be off to the races, but yeah, we would be up a couple of thousand and stick. But he's doubling down, tripling down, whatever words you want to use. And unfortunately, I think there's a very good chance. We will end up in a good contraction. Why? Because also the wealth effect. We mentioned that yesterday.

The wealth effect. We believe the other part of the economy besides Joe Biden's freaking government was the markets and the wealth effect. well we're losing a bunch of that what have we lost about seven eight nine trillion here in the united states that's a lot of buying power that'll buy a lot of uh cafe lattes lattes we'll keep reporting and for those that feel like emailing me and saying oh you just hate trump no i love the guy i'm his best friend you know who his enemies are right now the ones that Just say, oh, yes, sir, yes, sir, yes, sir, you're the greatest.

You're doing everything right. You're wonderful. You know what you're doing. Boom, boom, boom, boom, boom. His best friend is me. Constructive. Hey, have you thought this through? 104%.

I got emails from some importers today. They are beside themselves. I love the guy. This is a colossal blunder. colossal. We'll keep you informed, but leave no doubt today. They put a hair cut into anything coming out of China as well as other countries. Up next, we'll think of something. I'm Gary. This is the one that only investors end. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now.

Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game-changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect. Like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.

You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast. might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. What are we waiting for?

Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In The Gester's Edge. With Gary Culpa. Uh, by the way, and on this note, And we'll finish up on this tariff thing. Elon Musk called Peter Navarro, his head trade advisor, a moron.

I'm not going to argue. None of this makes any sense. I said on TV, how did everybody become our enemy all of a sudden? Our enemy. They're all out to destroy us. Which has me begging the question, how did we get to $30 trillion with everybody our enemy trying to take us down. Just food for thought, ladies and gentlemen, we move on.

By rule, the Dow remains in a steep downtrend after what arguably could be called a crash over the last few days with a day where it had a chance to be up big but finished down. A little bit off the lows, though. It remains way below the 50-200-day moving average. And by the way, the Dow was down 320 with United Health up $28 today. It was, geez, United Health at one time today was up 30, it's up 60. $28 would be, 30 times 6, about 180 Dow points.

So the Dow was down 320 with United Health. And what it is is the getting paid by the government was the increase. this year was better than expected. The S&P looks like the Dow. The NASDAQ looks like the Dow and S&P. The NASDAQ 100 looks like all of them. The transports worse. And may I state for the record,

rails, trucker. the UPS FedEx, the logistic companies, airlines, all brutal bare markets right now. And I can throw in other travel like hotels, cruise lines, brutal bare markets. The Russell 2000, wow. The Russell 2000 is in the midst of... the lows of the bare market we were in in 22 in the midst and I still remember I bought the Russell two or three times and stopped out and finally said I ain't doing this again foreign markets that were holding up pretty darn good just sandblasted in the last week

China that was holding up good sandblasted last week The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has gone from 5931 to 3562 since last July. And it's given back pretty much the big breakout of 23, not near the lows of the bear market, but underneath the highs of the high of the bull market that topped out in March of 22. Gold, good shape, just in pullback mode. Bullish phase. Home builders got awful. Finished at a new yearly low today.

Given back the whole breakout from December of 23, November, December. Got awful. Really got awful. Retail murdered. New yearly lows. Almost back to the lows of the bare market of 22 and 23. This is stunning. Stunning.

Oils. Just another one. New yearly lows. You are below the bare market, though they're oils and they're a little different than everything. That's the XOP, the OIH Services Explores. The XL. is the big oil, and that's starting to gag pretty good, and that was holding up pretty darn good. The oils, what else to tell you? There are no new yearly highs in the market. New yearly lows are plentiful. You had better action. Where was some decent action today when all was said and done? I don't have much when all said and done. I think some defense stocks are up today, but they have been in a bare market also.

And that's about the size of it. Tomorrow's another day. Who knows? Maybe they'll just gap it up, 1600 tomorrow. But that was a bad finish today. And I believe that the 104% is going to be in force in a few hours. And by the way, China said screw you to the president. Not those words, but basically, yeah.

Take a hike, Mike. That's what they said. So I don't know what's next. If I was the president, none of this would have happened. None of it. And I actually think he could have gotten a lot of the job done, not necessarily all of it, without all this. You're bringing the guy who runs Japan. Bring them over here.

Let me just show you. How can we remedy this? You meet with Xi from China. Do you see what this is going on here? This is how we can help you if you help us. and this is how you can help us if we help you. None of that occurred. And now we are sitting, let's see, when the president came in, we had new all-time highs at 45,073.

We're at 37-645. Not sure I need to say more. For those of you that may be mad because I'm taking it on a little bit, I do it from my family and yours. we've been right. You all have a great evening drive carefully when you get home, do like we do. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. Say a little prayer for my dad.

And until next time, hopefully better things to come. And mind's changed. Stay well, be well. Have a great night. Good night. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary. Go to GaryK.com.

That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less.

Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25.5.5.5.5.5. percent off your first order with code comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details.