Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - 1999 [05.05.2026]

Episode Date: May 5, 2026

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Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is Cinco de Mayo, May 5th.

It's about all the Spanish I know. But by the way, you know what I'm doing soon? I'm doing one of those I'm going to learn Spanish and since I go to Italy a lot I'm going to learn Italian and they have these things now that you can learn

pretty darn quickly. I did take six years of Spanish and I still don't remember anything. By the way, Cinco de Mayo commemorates the Mexican Army's victory over France at the Battle of Puebla in 1862. It's often confused with Mexican Independence Day

which is celebrated on September 16th. I was reading that. I had no idea. Anyway, this is a serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll do the markets. We'll do the economy. Your job, your industry.

The nut cases in D.C., they are stealing from you. I'll explain in a minute and whatever else matters. And if you do not get this radio show in your city, we will post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our X feed. If you don't follow us on X, you should. Just put our name in. If you'd like to email us, just be nice.

All you got to do is be nice. Respectful. Completely disagree with us. completely disagree, but be respectful. Should not be too hard. Ladies and gentlemen, to my right, is a chart. It is Cinco de Mayo of 2000. And the reason why I'm bringing it up,

because at the beginning of January, right around the beginning, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was at 662. And as you know, into March was the final blow-off top the semiconductors from January to 662 to 1362 in a little over two months. Now, I actually can go backwards because, if you go to where the market actually lifted off, it was the end of October when the market actually broke out of range. End of October of 1999.

So if I go back to then, the Sox was actually around 550, the $5.50, the 1362. that was the big blow-off top that led to a gargantuan, gargantuan bear market in everything, semiconductors. It topped out at 1362 and hit a low in October of 2002. This is the semis at 209. Big drop, right? Now, we're not telling you this because we think a major drop will be at hand from the move we are seeing right now in the semiconductors. We're just a big believer in history because remember, markets we have been taught are about fear and greed.

and often when you get extreme fear like 08 when I told you I went to the bank I took 25,000 bucks in cash

and put it in my safe in my house just to have some cash because I was worried about the whole freaking financial system blowing up because of the crooks on Wall Street and the politics that were enabling them, and they all got away with it, by the way.

Extremes. And then early 2009, we bottomed, and then the extreme for COVID. But that's a little bit of a different story because that was very much government-related and printing of money. I now move to today. if you recall on April 8th, the semiconductor index broke out. It was the first thing to really break out off of the bearish phase from the war. We bought it that day.

And we told you we bought it that day. But we sold it six days later because we thought, 9% in six days. Since that time, it's gone up another 20%. That's the semiconductor exchange traded fund. So from the breakout, we have gone from 300. I'm looking at the ETF. Let me go to the index itself.

I'm going to use 8,500. I'm going to use that number. 8,500 to almost 11,000. We're 10-9-80. In one from the day, we're going to take that day off. That was a gap. That was the day of April 8th. 1, 2, 3, 45, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 19, 19, trading days.

8,500 to 10, 9,000. 80. Last I looked, 8,500 to 11,000 is almost 30% in 19 trading days of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. And if there is anything I am pissed off at myself, not in the selling. I'm unhappy, but pissed. off, hope you don't mind me saying that, is that on top of the breakout in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, the reason it broke out was because a bunch of individual names, some obscure names, broke out that day. And I have been taught, but I also have taught. I used to do seminars. I haven't done one in a long time.

We used to teach when you have, very simply, when you have a whole group of stocks breaking out at the same time, it's usually material.

I take that back. Not usually. Most often. Material. And I didn't buy one other name that day. And I sold too quickly. So in my little book, I got this book. It's one of those at a glance books.

You should see how many four-letter words I have addressed to myself off of just that. And we're just talking semiconductors here. We're not talking anything else. We're not talking artificial intelligence trade or anything else. Well, that is artificial. But you know what I mean. So just letting you know, it's nowhere near what it did in 1999. But it's got that feel of it.

And we'll stay on top of it. We'll keep you informed. Today was another day of, of the artificial intelligence trade. Today was another day. And there's a lot more earnings to come out in the AI space, and we'll see how it goes. But it's not just quote unquote technology.

We will go through some other areas, quite to quite. That's up next. On this, the one and only, Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living,

specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy.

If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-5-59. That's 888-4-2-2-9. 55-59. Investment advisory services offered through Coltbaum Capital Management. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to.

Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. So, but what else? We have harped on this building slash construction area.

Companies that provide infrastructure and building services that have this tie to data centers and stuff like that. I bet you've never heard of Sterling infrastructure, symbol STRL. It's been on our screen, but there was nothing to do, because it's just been range bound, just been range bound,

a little drift higher as of recent, some wild swings also, they announced earnings. The stock gapped up, $230, finished up $276, 52% move on a company

that does building services and construction group. If you go who we are, innovation infrastructure, they say. Amazing. That group also, some completely tied to the data centers, some not. So that area, and the symbols in that area are fix. We've mentioned symbol fix. MTZ.

So you got some of that also in that trade. And I can't be mad at that one because it was not viable before earnings. And as you know, we will not touch anything within a week or so of earnings. we have no interest in playing earnings roulette because you don't know what's going to gap up and you do not know what's going to gap down ladies and gentlemen at any given point in time and then there is the other part of the trade the optical electronics for lack of a better word wow sand disk Western digital sea gate micron well that's semis amongst others Sienna coherent you've had new moves by the way I've got to mention this

Intel, my goodness gracious, is acting like a small cap. Amazing. That's all I can say. So this whole area, a lot of it vertical, it's starting to get that 99-ish feeling, not even close in scope, but some things getting there. and we'll see how it goes. Just letting you know. A strong day there,

I don't know what else to say. As we have another thousand earnings, and by the way, Shopify was down 20 bucks on earnings. PayPal, slaughtered on earnings. Not everything. On the other end, and again,

Some of the moves, I bet you've never heard of DigitalOcean. And just so you know, they reported earnings that were down 21% year over year. The stock was up 40% today, mostly on a gap to the upside, was up $43 on a $23. on a 21% drop in earnings. What can I tell you? So there were blowups, but there was more gap ups. And the gap ups were mostly in that area that I just went through. And we'll see what tomorrow brings.

AMD is reported. Interesting enough, they had it down. 15 bucks initially. It's now up a buck in the aftermarket. I'll have to see what's going on there. But AMD, straight up off the lows, since the April 8th of three days before the low. Boom. Mega caps, Amazon, Google went from the lows to the high.

and then report earnings. It's haven't seen this often. You know, we're always looking backwards. History provides a lot about fear and greed. They provide pictures, especially at extremes. As I just said to you, one of those pictures is, oh, when you get a whole group of stocks breaking out, it is material, the semiconductors. And that's one sale I would like to take back because I did not listen to my own rule on that. Sold it short. Welcome to an imperfect world.

All I can tell you, I wouldn't call it a one-note market, but it's close to it. in that today, oh, they bounced the transports, but they dropped a thousand yesterday. They bounced the housing related, but they've been crushing them. They bounce the banks today, but they've been doing nothing. They bounced a little retail, but they've been slaughtered. But they rallied the stuff that's been rallying. Up next, we'll expound more. this is the one only Investor's Edge

We're listening to America is talking Investors Edge He's got to be pleased with that The crowd is just on his feet here He's a Cinderella boy With Gary Colbomb It comes highly recommended

You're gonna feel better if you talk to him And welcome once again to Investors Edge I'm just rummaging through See here's the interesting part about my business So in this building construction business, and I'm not making this up. As I mentioned, this STRL, up 270 bucks today. And what it does, it'll bring along other stocks. So I got symbol PRIM, Primora Services, they're in the same group. It closed at 203. They just reported earnings. It's down $70 in the aftermarket

almost 35%. Two stocks, same group, one north, one south. That's what we mean by, oh, we're kind of not going to play right before earnings because you really just don't know. And guess what? You really just don't know. you an idea of what life is like for us as we do the radio show and I just scan earnings reports and watch the jello moving on the plate and then going over them and see what we can find. That's the story. But very simply, good day today. complaints, I'll tell you what's interesting. Oh, this, by the way, this is not a complaint.

Have you been watching the news? So, I usually wake up around six. And all the news was, oh, crap. The Straits of Hormuz, there's more crap going on there? What? Oh, crap, they drone the United Arab Emirates? Oh crap Oh crap

And I'm thinking Oh boy I'm going to go look at my screens And oil prices are going to be up Oil prices finish down four bucks today And because of that yields came down also So you never know You never know

The president said 14 different things today on it Which is a normal day By the way that's not a put down I'm just it's a fact And then we deal with, hey, AMD is now up 12 bucks in the after market after being down 15. Initially, we'll see what they had to say. Tomorrow is another day. That's another in semiconductor, and it's had a big move, and it's up in the aftermarket.

Welcome to our world. But a lot of things being left behind. as we've stated some of them bounced today but there's nothing going on a ton of the medical big biotech housing and housing related transports though they had a better day today and you know there was news yesterday that hit them airlines bounced today nothing going on there little bouncing cruise lines nothing going on there. Little bouncing hotels, no bull markets there. And that's what we mean by kind of sort of one note. But AMD is an important semiconductor name, and it's up in the aftermarket. Now, 18 bucks. We'll be looking at it after the clothes. A lot of jello moving on

the plate kids. And I will say this, and I'm not saying this in a bad way, froth is picking up. some of the froth. So AMD only beat by $0.8.00, but upside guidance. A little better than expected. A little better than expected. But the only thing that matters is the market likes it. And it looks like it will be another interesting morning tomorrow for the semiconductors. And by the way, Intel with aftermarket is up 15 bucks today.

I don't even know what to say about. that. My bias against the 1990 stock had me not even thinking about Intel. We'll see how that plays out. So, advanced declines good day, up-down volume, good day. My left screen was weak, meta and Netflix very weak. NVIDia had another rough day ever since it was announced that China and Huawei and competition on Nvidia, they stuck a fork in it. My left screen hit today. Nothing good going on really there.

So it is a strict list of semiconductors slash artificial intelligence. And now I'm noticing in the aftermarket, I know they report already Google up eight bucks, in the aftermarket. I don't know if they said anything. And that is a mega cap name. And that's a name I've wanted to buy. And I was waiting for a pullback.

And they decided to put it up eight bucks in the aftermarket. Hey, thanks. We think that stock's going higher. And we said that on TV today. Anyway, so AMD is doing the trick right now. And I'm seeing Broadcom will break above range. I'm even going to give you some things here. Broadcom above range.

Google is going to move above a little flag. If nothing changes overnight, the QQQ is just fine. But we have some blowups also in the aftermarket. But the market doesn't give a crap. Because the semiconductor name is gaping up. And that's what's going on. So there you have it in real time.

some of the things that are going on. By the way, the small caps. If you look at the IWM, that's moving out of here again. I suspect that's going to keep doing okay. The midcaps are okay. You just got a move at the market, brought to you by the semiconductors and artificial intelligence and without a lot of other stuff.

And makes life easy, kind of. You don't have to look at too much. If anything changes, we'll let you know. But darn, we're not happy about Google. It's up now 11 bucks in the aftermarket. I'm going to look to see if there's any earnings. And there you have it. A little bit of real-time stuff here.

Just strong. And if you don't like individuals, ETFs, doing fine. will it continue there's something in the market called momentum and right now especially in this very important area that's what you got and you now have some in the aftermarket and I'm looking at the numbers they look okay nothing spectacular but our motto it's not the news it's how the market reacts to the news. That's what matters quite most.

And there you have it in the aftermarket. And of course that can change overnight. The market's also ignoring the war. Because I guess it's not a war anymore, right? That's what they tell us, even though there was a lot of crap going on last night. So now AMD is doing the trick, which has Broadcom breaking into new highs in the aftermarket, and the semis even higher. Up next, news of the day, I'll be whining and complaining.

This is the one only investor's edge. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In The Gester's Edge with Gary Kulp. Hey, in the news, all you conservative Republicans, just letting you know that we were told by your president, my president, our president, that the ballroom is going to be paid by donors, not a dime by the taxpayer.

I believe we were told that several hundred times, weren't we? Breaking new Senate Republicans are proposing $1 billion for the Ballroom Project, stuffed in an immigration bill. They're trying to tell you for security measures. Is that what you like? You're happy about that? Are you happy about that? You conservatives out there.

The people out there that don't like to be lied to, just letting you know. As you know, we can't stand any of them. We have no love for any of them. We are just on good policy and bad policy. We will praise when needed to be praise and we will put down when needs to be put down. They lied again about your tax, or at least. trying to with your tax dollars. Just letting you know. Just letting you know. And I get emails, but Gary, you got to pick sides. No, I don't. I'm accused of Trump derangement syndrome. No,

it's truth derangement syndrome. People don't like the truth. In the news, what do these things have in common. Nike Community Factory Store operated since 1984. Walmart Target three separate stores.

Retailer REI Reason. U.S. Bank. Wells Fargo. Starbucks. five to six locations, Nordstrom Rack, CVS Pharmacy, Pioneer Place Mall. Well, let me tell you what they all have to do with. Portland.

Nike Community Factory Store, for 40 years closed permanently because 276 shoplifting reports in one year. They decided deteriorating public safety. Walmart, both public Portland locations, buy-bye, 580 employees, Target, three stores, explicitly cited organized retail crime and shoplifting. REI reason, highest break in rate in two decades, over 800,000 spent on extra security, had a leave. U.S. Bank announced it would not renew its long-term lease buildings, building sales sold in July, 2005 for $45 million, down from $372,015, 88% drop. Wells Fargo leaving Portland.

Starbucks close 5 to 6 Portland locations in September. Nordstrom Rack in downtown. CVS Pharmacy, Broadway. Pioneer Place Mall once had roughly 100 stores, it's down to 20. Lloyd Center Mall confirmed for full demolition, now 90% vacant. Pack West Center sold 2025 for $55 million down from $170 million. Montgomery Park sold August 24 for $33 million down for $255. Hey, Portland, keep voting in the same people running the joint there.

The anti-business lunatics. And they do nothing about it. The mayor of Seattle didn't care. But what did she say? Fine when asked about a lot of wealth leaving the city. Keep voting these people in. Keep voting these people in. You know, here in Florida, they're trying to get rid of real estate taxes while these other cities are raising.

Of course, only for those bad wealthy people. You think it's probably going to stop there. Oh, it's not. Just letting you know. We've been to Portland a few times. We had a radio station there. We loved it there. We get emails from Portland still.

none of it good keep voting these people in what do we tell you a leader of any place first thing protect their citizenry that's your number one job number two job

number three job number four job number five job protect the citizenry yet they keep voting in people that don't seem to give a crap I read all the time about violent criminals being arrested 30

times in certain cities. And then on the 31st, they murder somebody and everybody's asking why. And judges never lose their job. Shoplifters, bring in calculators, if you steal $949, no problem, but $9.50 you get in trouble. So they never go above $9.50. It should be easy and should be logical. right that's Portland any of you still listen in Portland let me know what's going on there but I just read it to you and we know not every place is perfect but when the criminals know crime does not pay and more importantly they will pay a stiff penalty of living in a six by nine cell they lose the incentive most criminals are cowards do remember that you have a great evening. Drive carefully when you get home. Do like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your

family, hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise they will be well. Thanks for joining. Have a great evening. Good night. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.