Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - 2 weeks [10.22.2024]

Episode Date: October 22, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the Biz Talk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It is Tuesday. It is October 22nd.

It is 2024. Hope you are having a good day. As you know, this is serious talk. down on everything that affects you. We'll do the markets, the economy, your job, your industry, taxes, debt, deficits, the election, lies, scams, shams, most of it emanating from D.C. But I got to start out by telling you, on Sunday, I put up a picture on Twitter, which is now X, of me and my father. He was wearing his number eight Daniel Jones. It's a little I think it's about a year old a picture.

Anyway, all I put up there was the dad, 93 years young today. How about a happy birthday? You ready for this? 291,000 views. Isn't that cool? And counting. It's still going. Anyway, I just want to start off with the show with that.

291,000 views. And now we segue. Hey, we have an election, and as you know, we believe it's the Ebola virus versus the bubonic plague. We don't like either candidate. Trump because of Trump, and you don't need me to go further on that, right? But there has to be a proviso in there. But, but there is no way in hell. Hell.

Is it okay to use that? I can say that, right? we can continue on the trajectory that Biden Harris has put us on. There's no way. On top of that, everything you need to know about Trump is out there because the media is ripping them to shreds 24-7. They just, if you go on the New York Times on the app every day, I mean, the headlines are, you would, he's the Antichrist and he's Hitler.

And of course, he's not. He's just a flawed man who whipped out when he lost the election. And you know what happened January 6th? And by the way, I get people telling me Nancy Pelosi calls that, whatever. And the list goes on and on. He lies a lot. The tariffs are paid by the consumer, not by China. I can go on and on and on and on.

But, and this is a big but, she's polar opposite. And when I mean that, she wants to really continue to change the country that Biden has done. just so you know the big story over the last three and a half years is everything that everybody is having fits over was done on purpose the open border was done on purpose and the shame of it is

well I respect are coming out and lying for it I got a tell you that Mark Cuban, I love the guy. I like the guy. I like the guy. I've liked the guy. Amazingly, his excuse for the open border, and I quote, I thought their hearts were too big when Joe came into office. They didn't know how many people would cross the border and got away from them. That's bull crap. It didn't get away from them. They saw it happen.

they did it on purpose. For three years, they looked you in the eye and said the border was secure. When the poll numbers on immigration were lower than Jockich, root canal, and Herpes Symplex number three, they realized they got to come out and just change. So all the things they did, most all, they went back, and all of a sudden the border got better, still not great. And then they blamed it on Republicans and blamed it on Trump because, you know, Trump caused the Chicago fire and the San Francisco earthquake, right? So they got more Cuban outlying about it, not talked about enough.

Imagine if it was the Ku Klux Klan on campus blocking black students from going to class. What do you think would happen? What do you think the administration would do? Holy crap. They'd be all in jail. They'd be all charged with terroristic attacks. But nothing about what's going on in the college. Leave it alone.

Have you ever heard them yelling and screaming about what's going on in the cities with the DAs and the letting people out? 20, 30 times to commit crimes again and again and again? Not a word. Why is that? And then the big matzabal. I don't know if you know this. And by the way, I wish I was making this up ever since the Fiscal Responsibility Act. That's what they called it. Over four trillion debt of debt added to us. In the last weeks, 500 billion, a half a trillion, and they're averaging $350 a month now. They're going to run $4 trillion deficits on purpose. And what was the second part of the con? She wants to raise long-term capital gain. She wants an unrealized capital

game. She wants to get rid of all the Trump tax cuts, which by the way is you. They want to raise the corporate taxes. Ronald Reagan, one of his famous lines, the start of it says if it moves tax it, this is them, this is her.

And the reason why she can never answer a freaking question, because if she actually answered a question and she was attached to a lie detector test, it would blow up. I've done my own little investigation on her.

I've gone backwards. I've watched videos of her. She is left of Bernie, where Biden was left of Bernie, and she's left of Biden. On everything. For a woman who says

her values haven't changed, she's called for the confiscation of guns, defunding the police. I'm not making this up. Go look it up. but she's completely changed her stance now at the same time saying her values haven't changed how is that possible

so I'm going to let the media rip Trump the shreds on a daily basis I'm just letting you know we cannot continue the trajectory of this woman and amazingly I watch celebrities back her up based on nothing based on they don't want Trump

they don't even know what they are telling you to vote for. I can't stand either. I will blatantly tell you that. Oh, by the way, and they got two sides of their mouth talking when it comes to Israel, the great democracy in the Middle East,

besides the point. I am in hopes in two weeks. If Trump wins, he grows some presidentialness keeps taxes low, regulations down, backs Israel, not telling you

if you're Jewish and you don't vote for me, you're not Jewish, defends the police, not defunds the police, and leave us the hell alone. That's what I'm in hopes. I know what I'm going to get from her. Rules, regulations, fees, fines,

mandates, taxes, and control over our lives. Up next, we'll put a bow tie on it. Then the markets. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.

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One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's Bar, and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon. She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece. I open my mouth to say, whatever a 9-year-old. wants to say. And she replies with a low, listen. So we sat there. Listening. That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full. Hershey's, it's your happy place.

It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get back. And welcome once again to Investors' Edge.

Two weeks. That's my stance. When it came to Republican Party, I was A-B-T. Anyone but Trump. There's got to be a way about you as president. I kind of say to myself, would I want my sons to act like that? But I will back him 100%. I will have a pipeline to him.

I will give him advice if they allow me. And I am in hopes he would be in recognition he has four years to write the ship. The ship being the size, scope, and reach of this blob called government. Where the year before COVID, our federal government spent $4.4 trillion. It's now 7 trillion. You can add up the percent and the numbers. We cannot continue this trajectory, which takes me to the next part of the equation

because all of a sudden, the people I respect the most in my industry are yapping about everything I have been telling you. Paul Tudor Jones, one of the greatest hedge fund managers of all time, was on a certain channel this morning, a business channel, pretty much saying exactly what we've been telling you about the debt and the deficits. I have yet to watch the whole video, but I saw the part where he talked about it. He sounded like me. Stanley Drucken Miller,

same thing. And Stanley Drucken Miller is short the bond market right now, and rightfully so. as we have told you, the central bank, J. Powell, doesn't know what the hell he's doing. He's looking in the rearview, middle, at all times, always behind. And he had better be careful because the 10-year yield right now, just so you know, when the 10-year yield was at 3-6 and he was 5 and a quarter, it was telling him to cut rates. and now it's telling them a half a point. You cut a half point with the markets at highs and you're telling us how good the economy is

and they're spending two to three trillion above. Guess what the bond market's telling Jay Powell now, but he won't listen. The bond market is now telling Jay Powell, you better stay where you are. Our 10-year yield has gone from 3-6 to 4-2 in weeks. inflation don't know debt don't know either one bad yields going higher not good now there is another part of it though i have to mention if she wins there's no chance the republicans don't win the

senate and there's every chance they keep the house though that may be tougher if the republicans get the Senate, keep the House, one or the other, it's going to be very tough for her to do any of those tax hikes. The Republicans will not allow it. So worst case scenario, you'll lose the Trump tax cuts, which is still no fun. But God only knows what this woman has in store. Marxist control freak.

It's been our whole body and our whole life. Nothing personal. It's just her beliefs. Two weeks away, you get to decide. I live in Florida. Trump wins Florida easy. And as I've stated to you, as of this second, he is ahead. Two weeks to go.

We'll see how it plays out. If anything changes, we will let you know. What else do I got for you? Gold. Silver. still going silver broke out on Friday we let you know

and it's up a few like 3% gold has been going for quite a while and has been getting stronger and is that a worry we'll see bull markets the gold miners silver miners

they're playing catch up to a certain extent we'll see overall market a little more deterioration today. Not like yesterday. The Dow was down six today. Who cares? The S&P was down to and change.

Who cares? Nasdaq was up 33. NASDAQ 100 was up 22. But advanced declined 1723 on the New York, 1822 on the NASDAQ. No big deal. That's not a big deal. I'm cool with that. But a 10-year yield up to 4.204. up another point two to today and guess what got hit again today because of that housing and housing

related worse stocks today well let's see hovnanian down 11 meridage homes down nine and change pulte homes down 10 change ooh i guess i missed that so rough going there interest rates sensitive stuff simple as that a few other areas under a little bit of pressure here but nothing untoward. I do believe Pulte, they reported earnings. I guess the market didn't like it, but I think that's more interest rate than anything else. So we're going to have to be a little more selective going forward. They hit a few things today. Lockheed Martin's been a strong defense stock down 37 bucks today on earnings. Sherwin Williams, oh, by the way, that is housing related. That was down 20 bucks today. Mohawk Industries. That's

housing related was down 8 today. GE, which has been a stalwart. And by the way, GE is actually GE Aerospace, the symbol GE. That was down 17 today. So there's some things getting hit on the other end of the spectrum. I guess it's

Philip Morris. By the way, they manufacture cigarettes and tobacco and nicotine containing products worldwide. sales are up year over year. I guess people aren't watching those commercials of people dying of cancer. It's amazing.

Up next, what else I got for you? Got markets and news. This is the one only investors' edge. Ever feel like your bedroom's running out of space? Here's the good news. You don't have to sell your favorite things to make space. With IKEA bedroom storage solutions, dressers, wardroves, full closet systems, even storage boxes. You can hold onto it all.

Your vintage banties? Keep them. Those limited edition sneakers? They stay. And yes, there's room for your childhood teddy bear too. Need to organize a walking closet? The Pax wardrobe lets you customize shelves, rails, and compartments, so every item has a home. Too many clothes and not enough drawers. The Stork Lint has six-door dresser is perfect for denim, sweaters, and every single.

everyday essentials. And if the kids are taking over your space, TroFest storage boxes make sorting toys and art supplies easy and clean up fun. From primary suites to playrooms, IKEA has storage options that adapt to your life and help you keep what matters most. Don't sell anything you love, store it instead. Shop IKEA Bedroom Storage today at IKEA.us slash bedroom storage. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey.

Learn more at APU. APU.orghs.edu. One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon. She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece. I open my mouth to say whatever a nine-year-old wants to say, and she replies with

a low, listen. So we sat there. Listening. That was the first time I learned that quiet can feel full. Hershey's, it's your happy place. He's got to be pleased with that.

The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbub. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. It looks like my little sampling. You know how we tell you we do our own little samples?

You know how we do that? And we say to you, hey, we did our little. sampling. Remember years ago we did our little sampling of Kmart when they still had a lot of stores and we said you know we've been to three Kmart's and there's something really wrong here. And of course Kmart went to dust and I am not comparing Starbucks to Kmart. But we have told you about Starbucks that personally, I realized that I realized that I I realized I was spending like 300 bucks a month on breakfast sandwiches and espressoes. And in New York, they're like $10.50.

And if you got one of the espressoes are cheap. My wife gets a coffee. It's like six bucks. It'd be like $12.13. People can't afford that. And we've been telling you that they better fix things there or something's going to give. And so they bring it a new CEO, and we said the biggest issue this company has is price. They sell what they sell. But the prices are too high. And the CEO comes in and says, we don't care.

The new guy. He says that by keeping the price is high, we are a premier outlet. And if I had a zero, I'd say, tell that to Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob. That tells you to take a flying leap. They're going to make the coffee at their house. So what have we told you? Our own little sampling. I don't have 20 analysts going out to visit 400 stores, but we have a keen eye. Starbucks reported,

they were expected to do $1.3 for the quarter. They did $0.80. Oh, excuse me, guidance. For next quarter, $1.3, they did $0.80. They suspended all guidance for the year 25. You got me? Revenues are going to be only 260 million, 270 million lower than their estimate.

A 6% decline in U.S. comparable store sales in North America, driven by a 10% decline in comparable transactions. You know what that means? What is the two words I have been telling you about Starbucks? Price conscious. So what have people done? Instead of spending, 11, they're spending eight. I'll get the coffee, but not the sandwich.

I'll get the coffee, not the Danish. I'll get the Danish, not the coffee. By the way, China comparable store sales decline 14%. Driven by an 8% decline in average ticket. Yet, the CEO, the new guy, comes in and says, oh, we're keeping prices where they are. Because we're Premier, and I say this. No, you're not. Your breakfast sandwiches are not cooked on site.

They're in plastic, and you pull them out and you put them in an oven. Let me tell you something. If this guy keeps doing what he's doing, stock's going to be much lower. If you do not recall, remember the guy who took over J.C. Penny years ago and got rid of sales? Remember that? I think that CEO was gone in two years and destroyed the company. I forgot the guy's name. Sometimes the people that go to Wharton's school have been drinking their own bathwater and think they're omnipotent and all their decisions are completely. completely correct and they absolutely have no feel for what's going on out there. I may have to write a letter to Starbucks saying, hi, I'm Gary Kaltbaum, host of Investors'

Edd Radio Show and have a decent feel for what's going on in the world. Or maybe I'll invite the CEO onto the show. See if he'll come on. That's right. I do have a radio show, don't I? That's a thought. Anyway, just letting you know, Starbucks. I wasn't even going to bring that up, but they reported and not very good. Anything else being reported in the aftermarket?

No. Not much else. So not a bad day. And the fact of the matter is I kind of like today. My biggest position is meta was up nicely today, almost seven, holding very good support area. We still have gold and you know what? I don't own enough. I hate when we're right and we don't own enough.

I got to get better than that. I got to get better at that. It's called having grapefruits. That aforementioned Stanley Druckenmiller, one of his great lines. I like putting all my eggs in one basket and then watching the basket very carefully. Another one, I've learned many things from George Soros, but perhaps the most significant is that it's not whether you're right or wrong. That's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose. when you're wrong. The few times that Soros has ever criticized me was when I was really right on

a market and didn't maximize the opportunity. I don't have enough gold. Dorn it. We'll see how that goes. Hey, we're just telling you how we feel. Do not forget, there's a ton of earnings coming out in the next three weeks. I can hardly keep up. I have to wake up early. I have to wake up earlier, go to sleep later and play catch up and I can promise you. Good stocks will turn bad, bad stocks will turn good. I'm looking at one called Manhattan Associates, M-A-N-H. Been a strong stock close at 292. It's 267 in the aftermarket, something like that.

Seagate STX. Not bad. It's down four bucks to 108 in the aftermarket. That's not going to... Twist anybody. How's Texas instruments in the aftermarket? Closed at 193, it's flat. Down from 215 recently. And of course, we'll have Tesla in the next couple of days. Next week, Apple, Amazon, Google.

Oh, it's going to be a panic, ladies and gentlemen. And remember, we'll be watching for guidance. By the way, Starbucks, not bad, it's only down four bucks in the aftermarket. And the only reason to have this big move is because new CEO and they have activists. They hired the wrong CEO, I believe. I hope I'm wrong. I hope he's right. I love successful businesses.

I love success. I love talking about success. Speaking of success, GM was up $4.80 today on 264% heavier volume. Earning's up 30%, revenues up 10. Very good numbers. these sales front, which is very important. Fourth quarter in a row, almost. 0, 8, 7, and 10.

Sales are up 10% year over a year. I have yet to do a deep dive on Y. But GM, good. I did mention Philip Morris earlier. I don't, you know. You see those commercials? How does anybody smoke a cigarette after watching one of those commercials? And there's one of those nicotine commercials where it shows you the lungs of a healthy lung versus a sick lung.

How does anybody put the smoke in there? Oh, my God. And I can't tell you how much it pisses me off. When I see the ads running now, political ads, oh, yeah, let's legalize marijuana. Like, that's good for you, too. Jerks. Anyway, Philip Morris today, dang, up on 181. percent volume was up

10 and a half percent today on a good earnings report. They are a cash cow, I must say. Nicotine, baby. Up next, this, that, and the other thing, or whatever else. This is the one only investor's edge. Ever feel like your bedroom's running out of

space? Here's the good news. You don't have to sell your favorite things to make space. With IKEA bedroom storage solutions, dressers, wardrobes, full closet systems, even storage. boxes. You can hold onto it all. Your vintage band teas? Keep them. Those limited edition sneakers? They stay. And yes, there's room for your childhood teddy bear too. Need to organize a walking closet? The Pax wardrobe lets you customize shelves, rails, and compartments,

so every item has a home. Too many clothes and not enough drawers. The Stork Lint has six-store dresser is perfect for denim, sweaters, and everyday essentials. And if the kids are taking over your space, TroFast storage boxes make sort of starting toys and art supplies easy and clean up fun. From primary suites to playrooms, IKEA has storage options that adapt to your life and help you keep what matters most. Don't sell anything you love.

Store it instead. Shop IKEA Bedroom Storage today at IKEA.us slash bedroom storage. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and cost. confidence to move forward. Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong passion, our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey.

Learn more at APU. APU.orghs.edu. One sweet, melty bite of a Hershey's bar, and suddenly I'm right back sitting on the front porch with my grandmother on a slow summer afternoon. She doesn't say much, just breaks the bar in half and hands me a piece. I open my mouth to say, whatever a nine-year-old wants to say. And she replies with a low, listen. So we sat there, listening. That was the first time I learned that quiet

can feel full. Hershey's, it's your happy place. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge. With Gary Culper.

And what once again to Investors' I was looking at, in other news, by the way. Oh, I forgot to mention China was up today, but I don't know. I don't know what to do. I don't have a specific spot, and I worry about gaps to the upside, gaps to the downside, but definitely in pullback mode here. I think it may have some more time pulling back to where I don't know. We'll try and let you know.

Not easy at all. As I do my scans, you know, I'm seeing some things breaking down. I'm seeing some areas in trouble. As I mentioned, housing-housing-related, a lot of retail stocks. But overall, you know, as long as we find some bullish phases, gold, silver, only the AI part of the semiconductors, because I got to tell you, most of the semiconductor stocks are in downtrends. Things like an IBM. Can't argue that crap. things been strong

we've been against that stock forever Bitcoin has not broken out yet but on the verge I will tell you if Bitcoin breaks out we're just talking technical analysis here it's in the I think let's see GBTC it topped out the day was March of 24 March to April May June July August, September, October.

Seven months range bound. We'll let you know if it breaks out. Why? The longer the range, the better the move. Normally. There's your Bitcoin. Yeah, it can break out again. It's just an asset.

The nuclear stocks. Just be careful. One of them was running and they announced the secondary Derry and the stock was down 14% today overnight. Not going to mention the symbol. You guys go look them up. They have no sales.

And I worry when I get 10 emails from people that I don't know asking about companies with no sales just because they were moving higher. Remember, dudes, duets, know what the hell you're getting into. Careful. Careful. every stock eventually will go to where it's worth and companies with no sales will all eventually be destroyed

how do we know we've studied history all of them you remember the SPACs right while the SPACs were going insane to the upside and that con artist who's now a billionaire Aaron gets quoted all the time, who brought him out, invested in crap, had you go and buying him,

he sold out. Guess what most all of them have done? Destroyed. We want you to remember this. Have you heard from Roaring Kitty recently? That turd ball? No. Because GameStop has stopped.

It's got to be careful. Do you realize because that doofus, roaring kitty, that stock went from 10 to 64 bucks in four days, maybe three. It was down to 17, three days later. You hear my silence, there is a lot of money to lose out there. I saw a chart of the NFTs. Remember those? I read, what's his name, Justin D.

Bieber bought some monkey NFT and paid whatever it's down like 98% I mean it's just gonna mark it down to zero paid zillions people were buying NFTs what the hell's an NFT

you know what else is crumbling recently watches prices of real nice watches skyrocketed they went vertical oh they're coming

down. Of course, the people that bought $100,000 watches can afford to see the watch drop to 50. I just want to make the point. Careful. What's our favorite line when it comes to these? Don't be the last one in. I'll tell you what hasn't come down. Have you seen the price of these like baseball cards? Holy crap. I'm in the wrong business. I saw some guys. I saw some guys. I saw some who does the auctions on TV the other day. Oh my gosh. I remember one card and I was like, wow, 15 years ago went for $200,000. How can it be? Went for $2 million. A little baseball card. Will not produce anything. We'll not create anything. Two million bucks. Then again, I saw somebody paid $250 million for a piece of art. Oh, somebody bought, paid $15,000 for an invisible

sculpture too. No really. And the person who sold it gave him a certificate of authenticity of an invisible sculpture. You think I'm making that up. So every now and then we just have to do this little thing here called keep your feet on the ground. Don't make it tougher. An invisible sculpture. Quality. Over junk. We'll keep talking about it. Tomorrow, be on 1 p.m., the big money show, they call it, on Fox Business Network. Check that out. Same time tomorrow for the radio show. You have a great evening drive carefully when you get home to like we do quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise.

And if I win Powerball tomorrow, you'll never hear from me again. Stay well, be well. Serenity now. tonight. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary CultBomb on Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. Success starts with your drive, and American Public University is here to fuel it. With affordable tuition and over 200 flexible online programs, APU helps you gain the skills and confidence to move forward.

Whether you're changing careers, starting fresh, or pursuing a lifelong, long passion. Our programs are designed for people who never stop. You bring the fire, APU will fuel the journey. Learn more at APU. APUS.edu. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with code

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