Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - 2025 Year In Review & What's Next [06.27.2025 w Adam Sarhan]

Episode Date: June 27, 2025

https://garykaltbaum.com/

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Subgette-To-Termin, subject to a camixt. Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan in for Gary Kaye, who's out today. Today is Friday, June 27th, 2025, and we have a great show for you tonight.

As always, I want to thank you very much for being here. Today is the last full week of the month, last full week of the quarter, We have one day on Monday, and then it's the beginning of July. End of quarter, end of month is a really important time to pause, reflect in the last six months of the year. The year is halfway over, which is amazing how fast time flies, and plan going forward the second half of the year. I'm going to share with you later in the show something Gary taught me on this show that he's mentioned multiple times throughout the years, and it's Gary's Yellow Brick Road of planning and helping adjust and set goals and a lot of the fun stuff that I've learned directly from Gary over the years. That being said, before we dive into today's show, just give you some overview or some housekeeping notes.

As you know, this is a show about you and your money and all the fun points in between, and sometimes not so fun points in between, but we make them fun anyway. Just as a quick reminder, if you don't get this show in your city, you can go to GaryK.com, you can rewind, fast forward, pause, listen on any device, anytime you want. for free 24-7 all available on GaryK.com. And if you want to follow Gary on X, formerly known as Twitter, you can do that by just pressing the button. You can subscribe and get Gary's morning notes sent directly to your inbox. You can also ask about his money management services, email Gary, or join his convictionleaders.com, which is his premium members-only newsletter where he shares real-time thoughts about the market

every day with members or every market day gives basically daily market webcasts where he shows charts, he shows stocks, he annotates things, he shows pivot points, gives members pivot points, and a whole lot more. You can take a free trial on conviction leaders. All right, all that being said, a few things that we can discuss. The market. What happened this week? It was a very strong week in the market.

The NASDAQ 100 earlier this week broke. broke out to a new record high, which I'll get a lot into in a few minutes here. The S&P 500 followed, hit a new high as well, and then reversed on Friday, late Friday, after Trump said that he's going to cut off the trade talks with Canada because of, well, I'll leave the because out. It's all over the news, so you can read it because he doesn't feel that Canada's got reciprocal tariffs. He wants to cut those down and so on and so forth. Either way, he wants the tariffs gone. And, sorry, he stopped the trade talks and wants those tariffs on the U.S. gone is the point that he wants to get done.

Let's see. The market was doing well. Then after Friday afternoon, I'm just reading notes from Gary. Trump had a big tariff announcement on Canada. The market sold down and then turn negative late in the day. He said other countries have been fine and says it deals with China, the UK and the U.S., well as India. are in the works and or says that he has deals with those countries. We'll see what happens.

But the breakout and the major indices are leading. The price is higher for the most part. Again, just really notes from Gary here. I told you that, let's see, it reminds Gary of 2013 a little, where the first half of the year it was a little jumpy, he had a nice bump, and then it just rallied really hard. It broke out and then had a very few good months. No matter what happens, we'll still take it day by day.

and of course we'll let you know as things change those are the notes from gary so where i'm from where i'm coming from my thought process is real simple when you zoom out you know looking at the forest not just the trees is really in a superpower in this business because a lot of people get caught up with the news intraday action you know every five minutes refreshing their phones their screens their charts looking at the news you know every tick almost and what i've noticed over the years, it's important to know what happens, you know, it's going on every day, but it's really important to be able at the same time to zoom out and look at the forest, the big picture, not just get caught up with the day-to-day noise. Why? Because the big trends in the market

is where we make the most money. Jesse Livermore, great speculator from 100 years ago, said it best. And he said, the big money is made in the city. In other words, you buy, something it's working is a big trend and you're let's say you're long in a bull market you sit don't overtrate it just sit as long as it's working you can make a lot of money doing that and it's evergreen it was true then it's true today true tomorrow and chew way back when so the key is to align ourselves with big trends as we approach the halfway mark of the year again mondays the last day of the year but this is the last full week so I'm going to give you the quarter in review and year interview up until now is really strong, you know, bearing a little pullback late Friday or

some tariff news. But the market was able to shrug off literally every single headline that was thrown at it all year long and hit new all-time highs this week. That's a NASDAQ led and then the S&P followed. Big Tech is a leading indicator for the market. The SMH, which is a semiconductor index, very strong action as well. The financials, XLF, very strong action as well. Navidia, one of the strongest stocks in the market, one of the biggest stocks in the market,

broke out hitting a new all-time high this week. Again, very, very strong. Apple, surprisingly, which is a big weighted component of the indices, has been under pressure, hasn't yet rallied. If we get a trade deal with China, we had trade truce or some progress there earlier this morning, woke up, I saw some headlines there.

But once we get some progress there, if Apple gets its, you know, kicks into gear, the market can really get a leg higher. And some, not just Apple, but other big stocks as well. Now, a few things. Next week is the beginning of the month, July, it's the beginning of a quarter. What happens? You get the jobs report. You get earnings a few weeks after that.

You know, you go into earnings season. And you get the latest read on inflation. And then we're going to reevaluate. But for now, going into this halfway mark, pausing, looking at this year in review, you know, you had tariffs. We had a big pullback in March and April, down 20%. But we came roaring right back when Trump gave that 90-day extension. That 90-day extension is pretty much almost over. So the question now becomes is, are we going to get another extension or are we going to get some 180 with the tariffs?

Like what happened with Canada? We don't know. And that can determine what happens with the market. bearing some unforeseen major event, the market is very strong, but extended. That's important to understand folks that just because the market broke out to a new high, that's great, but it's also extended. It had a big run. Look at the percent change from the moving averages, the 50, you know, how much higher

it is above the 50 or the 200 or whatever it is. They're pretty extended. We can easily pull back a little bit, but stepping back, the action is strong, but extended, right? So strong but extended. That's a big message. So a few other thoughts. So NASDAX leading, S&P followed. Dow, a little bit weaker.

The midcaps, the MDY, weaker. The small caps, IWM, weaker. Haven't yet broken out. Why? Because those areas are more sensitive to the tariffs, more sensitive to higher interest rates, which don't forget, the Fed has not cut yet. You want a list of things that have happened this year?

It's got tariffs. You got the war in the Middle East. You've got the Fed that is keeping rates relatively high, has not cut. You've got, I can go on and on and on, you know all the headlines. Everything that came at the market and markets at New All Time Highs. If you just look at the market and nothing else, no headlines, this is really, really strong action. You had a major rally in 2022, the end of it, really 23. You came out of a bare market in 22.

21, 22 was a little bare market. 23, the market exploded higher because of AI. into 24. And then fourth quarter of 24, Trump wins the election. Market goes sideways for the last six months, eight months, thereabouts, eight or nine months. And then today, in June, breaks out to new all-time highs. So when you zoom out, look at the forest, the forest is strong. The environment is strong.

We're in a bull market. And as Gary says, many times, it's the reaction to the news, not the news itself. The fact that we refuse to budge is a bullish sign. If you look on a monthly chart of QQQ or a monthly chart of SPY, the QQQ is a NASDAQ is the SPY is the S&P 500. You can see in April that low corresponded with the old chart high, the high from 2021. That's bullish.

And then buyers showed up, boom, market rallied right back up. Sat tight for a few weeks and then boom, broke out again to new highs the Q's did in the S&P 500 did this week. Strong action, but extended. So zooming out, the environment remains strong. We're in a bull market. There is a high likelihood that this rally continues. Like Gary said, 2013, 2017 come to mine. 18, 19 comes to mine also, where you had a pullback in 15 into early 16, and then boom, market just rallied strong second half of 16 into 2017. I think the deepest pullback was like 3% in the S&P, something crazy low, where it barely budged. That could be happening going forward.

I'm not saying that's going to happen, but that's a possibility, right? Anything's possible. We can have a bare market in front of us. That's possible too. The breakout could fail and boom. You can have huge tariffs or war or whatever, boom. But for now, there's a high likelihood that we can have a very strong second half of the year and beyond. Up next, we've got a lot more to cover.

Through the year-end review, some more stock. We'll talk about sectors. I'm Adam Sarahan. This is the one and only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management.

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Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. In case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show, you can go to GaryK.com, rewind, fast forward, listen any time at your convenience, 24-7 for first.

on any device, as long as you have internet. All right. This book about The Forest. We're in a bull market. There's a great book called Reminiscence of a stock operator. It was a fictitious book about Jesse Livermore's life. And in it, there's a great story. There are lots of great stories about how this guy was trading stocks 100 years ago.

And he goes, he's in the brokerate firm with these old guys and they're talking. And the old timers would say, it's a bull market, old turkey. Why is the market going up? Why is the market going up? We're in a bull market. Plain and simple. News. Second.

Reaction. Price is primary. Price is front and center. Everything else, in my opinion, according, you know, even volume, earnings, the news takes a backseat. Price is primary. And when you look at the action, the price, it looks really strong. Simple. Very, very simple.

Why? Because what shows up on your statement? What shows up on my statement? not the news, not volume, not earnings, not schmernings, not tariffs, not schmeriffs. Price. Simple. It's that simple. Everything else is secondary. Because what determines whether we make money or lose money in this business? The difference between your entry price and the current price in the market. That's it. And the market's a forward-looking mechanism. So here's a bullish case for the next six months of the year.

A, we get trade deals done. However they pan out, we don't know. The details they say are going to determine the quality of the trades, but providing we make progress on the trade deals and the tariffs go down, not up, that could be a bullish catalyst. One, two, even if we have setbacks, like what happened on Friday with Canada, that's okay. Setbacks are going to happen.

Trade deals are messy. Deals in general, not all of them are just. smooth, especially between countries. But trade deals could come and that could present the market higher. One, second bullish catalyst. The Fed can cut rates, which they've already hinted that they're ready to do in July. Oil prices shot up last week because the war. Guess what? There's a truce. The war, the 12-day war is over, or whatever number of days it was, at least it appears to be over for now, unless either side breaks the truce. But for the ceasefire, for now, the war is over. What happened? Oil prices? Collapsed. Gasoline prices. Futures. Collapsed. What happens to inflation? I was worried

that inflation is going to shoot up because oil prices were extended because of the war. Then last more than a few days, oil prices came crashing right back down. I think, in fact, last I checked, they were lower than the way they were before the war started in the mid-60s. So oil is not at $100 a barrel. If it was, you know, food and energy, that would be inflationary. Guess what? Food and energy, for the most part, are down this week. Good.

And they're not elevated, even from the monthly basis, for the most part, you don't see oil at $80 or $90 a barrel. Same with soybeans and corn and wheat and all this kind of stuff. You don't see huge bull markets. In fact, you see downtrends in many of these areas that determine inflation. So if that continue, inflation continues to go down, the Fed can cut. I get lots of questions. I had a reporter from Reuters call me today.

It was AP called. And they said, hey, listen, what's the deal? If Trump changes the Fed, you know, Powell's out and you get someone new? I said, whoever Trump brings in, the Fed has a dual mandate, meaning they have they have two jobs. One, keep unemployment low, which they're doing. They can check that box. And two, keep inflation near 2%. Last we heard, inflation's higher. And their expectation is it'll be around 3% this year. So the Fed's not really in a rush to cut rates. Because if they cut rates, what happens? Inflation might go up. And then they lose control of inflation. Then you get

stagflation. You get a situation that happened in the 70s and 80s in the U.S. where it was just inflation was rampant and, you know, interest rates had to go up so much. Interest rates now are in the low, mid-single digits or mid-single digits. They were in the teens a few decades ago, just to fight inflation. The Fed doesn't want to do that again. So it's taking its time with cutting rates, because if they cut too fast, what happens? Afflation goes higher. That's it. That's their job. The dual mandate. Unemployment low. Inflation near 2%. All right. If inflation comes down a little bit, It'll give them room to cut. That can be bullish for stocks.

So you've got a trade deal or trade deals can come out. Bullish catalyst, number one. Number two, you've got continued growth in the economy. We had negative GDP, by the way, earlier this year, and the market's still at all-time highs because the market's a forward-looking mechanism. You can have the Fed cut rates, another bullish catalyst, right? Spoke about inflation possibly coming down. gives the Fed room to cut.

The Fed already told us they want to cut twice this year, even with Powell and even with Trump and all the attacks Trump is doing against Powell, guess what? Fed still said it's ready to cut twice. If inflation comes down, hey, green light, that can be bullish for stocks. If we don't have a recession,

remember many people a few months ago, we're talking about a recession. If we don't have a recession, that can be bullish for stocks also. So there's lots of catalysts here that can be bullish for the market. Earnings grow. That can be bullish, right? Nike just came out with earnings.

This is Nike. They make sneakers. A lot of their sneakers are imported. Unless I checked, all their sneakers are imported. I don't think they make sneakers in the U.S. But I'm 99% sure about that. I'm not 100%. So double check that.

And what happens? They report earnings. Said, yeah, tariffs are concerned. stock gaps up today huge on massive volume. It's up double digits. Average volume is 15 million shares. They're about for Nike. And we're not double that. We're not triple that. You are several times more than that. Almost 100 million shares. You know, right around 100 million shares. It's a tremendous amount of buying with tariffs. That's Nike.

They're supposed to be impacted by tariffs. Stocks up, huge, or bigly, like Trump would say. So, again, you're in a situation where it's the reaction to the news. Markets are forward-looking mechanism. Sure, the Nike stock was down a lot. Went from 98 all the way down to 52, from June of last year to April of this year. Now it's back to the low 70s. All right, things change.

They change quickly. So if the tariffs don't impact earnings and earnings can grow, another bullish catalyst. So zooming out, we've seen this before in 2013. In 15, 16 was bumpy, and then 17 was smooth and just almost a straight lineup

with the deepest pullback was 3%. And then 18, 19. 19 was a beautiful year in the market. I think the deepest pullback there was like 4%. Depending on the index that you look at. Huge move up. Then 20 was COVID. He had a 20% correction.

thereabouts and then what happened boom you shot right back up you doubled 18 months later you s&p in the cues and then you got a little bare market 21 22 and then boom big rally 24 paused into 25 and now you're breaking out again up next we've got a lot more to cover i'm adam sarhan this is the one and only investors a it always happens right before the whistle there's a little voice that says what if i mess up what if i'm not ready i see a whole whole whole highlight reel of everything I don't want to happen. Missed shots, turnovers, letting my team down, and for a second, there's doubt. But then, I realize I've done enough to be where I'm at. The early mornings, the extra reps, the days I wanted to quit and didn't. So I smile. Self-doubt is

natural, but my smile is a reminder that I'm resilient. To put more smiles out into the world, Colgate has supported female athletes for over 50 years with the Colgate Women's Games. The Colgate Women's Games is the nation's longest running indoor track and field series for girls and women. Colgate, your smile is your strength. For delicious meals, you could go out to eat or spend hours in the kitchen. Or you could just make a Marie Callender's meal. Yeah, you heard me. Marie Callender's classic chicken parmesan bowl is delicious,

with scratch-made marinera sauce, creamy mozzarella cheese, and no preservatives. It's high in protein with 30 grams per serving. Marie Callender's, what having it all tastes like. By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things. Like how family is precious. Work can always wait. And 99% of people over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles.

Not everyone at risk will develop it. But I did. The painful, blistering rash disrupted my life for weeks. Don't learn about your shingles risk the hard way. Talk to your doctor or pharmacist today. Sponsored by GSK. You're listening to. America is talking.

Investors edge. He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge.

In case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show, you can go to garyk.com, listen to library archive anytime you want on any device for free on garyk.com. All right, a few other thoughts. We spoke about the trees, the forest, we spoke about zooming out, we spoke about the market, we spoke about strong rallies. We've seen this before. Like Ray Dalio talks about, it's another one of those. It talks about the importance of studying history.

he did, I did, really powerful. I wasn't alive and I'm assuming nobody listening was alive in 1919 when there was a Spanish, there's a pandemic, the Spanish flu, right? So in 2020, the first time COVID hit, oh my goodness, we look around, not knowing history, the world's never shut down before in the last several decades. You know, I'm alive 40 years, 50 years, 60 years, 80 years, 90 years, maybe some people around 100 years? That's 1925? Okay. I don't remember any pandemics happening during my life. That means it's never happened before, right? Wrong. It's another one of those. Yeah, we've had pandemics before.

You hear the plague, right? You know, Spanish flu, COVID, these things happened. But if you weren't alive, if you didn't study history, you would have no way of knowing. Same with markets. This year, we fell 20% because of tariffs. And then in April, tariffs got kicked down. It basically went away. Didn't directly go away. He just pushed the deadline back. And we're getting close to that deadline.

So we'll see what happens. It could be bumpy going forward if the deadline isn't pushed back again. Or if trade deals aren't announced, maybe he gets aggressive now that rate that the market's at all-time highs. And he just said, oh, I have room to go. And he plays hardball again. That could send the market lower. You know, I gave you a bunch of bullish reasons or catalysts going forward. There's bearish ones as well.

you know, the market can easily fall. We are extended expecting some pullbacks along the way. That same reporter that asked me about the Powell and the Fed and the new governor or new chairman, would the new chairman do something different? Possibly could do something different, sure. But the Fed still has a dual mandate. Even if you have a new person doesn't change the fact that you've got a dual mandate. The Fed's got to do its job, right?

was about markets and what can send the market lower. Lots of things. Tariffs can come back and Trump can get aggressive because now he's got more room. The market's at all-time highs. So, okay, he can squeeze a little bit. That's one. Two, you can get another war to break out. Russia and Ukraine is still happening.

Israel-Iran situation is paused. There's a ceasefire talk. the conflict's quote unquote not over, see what happens. Another conflict could arise. You can have a recession. The economy can just contract. Consumer spending is down. Sorry, consumer confidence has been falling recently.

Housing prices or sales and housing prices somewhat are slowing down a little bit in parts of the country. Consumer confidence in parts of the country. So, yeah, you can easily get a situation. situation where people get scared and you fall into a recession or you fall into a bare market and stocks just go down. You get more distribution. You know, recently I spoke about the number of distribution dates. There was seven, eight distribution they showed up. Guess what? Market rally. Great. But if we get more distribution and heavy selling, which we haven't seen since March,

that can easily send the market lower. So there's lots of reasons of market go down. There's always lots of reasons of market go down. And that's the beauty of this business. They like to say that the market climbs a wall of worry, right? Lots of people worried about this happening and that happening and this happening. And I did that for years. It's not a good trade. Focus on what's happening. Focus on price.

First, everything else second. That's it. That'll set you free because that gives you freedom. You're not subjected to someone else's opinion about what's happening. You can make your own decisions based on what the market's telling you. I like to say the market's speaking and then ask, are you listening? All right. So a few things.

He spoke about all that, bullish reasons, bearish reasons. Let's talk about the Yellow Brook Road. I started listening to Gary. I think it was 98, 99, somewhere in that time frame on the radio. You know, back when it was AM, radio before the podcast, before everything was digital and so on and so forth. And I used to, I was in school at the time getting, actually, it was like 2000, 2001, 2ish, and early 2000s. I was in grad school and I was driving around. I really parked my car, put it at the radio on, listen, take notes while you would

talk for the hour. And I would, it was a different time for the younger people listening. The Google was, had just been created. There was no Facebook back then. There was no Twitter. X, you know, LinkedIn wasn't around, so on and so forth. Different world. But I'd listen on the radio to take notes. And he would talk about the Yellow Brook Road and modeling success. Success leaves clues, right? Tony Robbins talks about this. You've got great people throughout history talk about it. Success these clues. Model success. If I'm going to want to be the best of something, I'm not going to look at the worst person playing the game. I'm going to look at the best person playing the game. What are they doing different? They're probably doing the work that most

other people don't want to do. Well, all right, they're disciplined. But the Yellow Brook Road concept is what are the goals? New Year's resolutions, everybody gets excited. Well, just about everybody gets excited about New Year's resolutions in January. But we're six months later. What are your resolutions? What are your goals? Where do you want to be? Are you where you want to be? Have you met your goals? What action? This is important. Have you taken to accomplish your goals? That's key. What action? Because action is what moves a needle. Charlie Munger taught us this. It's not, you know, people don't get what they want in life. They get what they earned. I want a six-pack. Here's a great way of explaining it so people can

understand because most people can relate to this. I want a six-pack. Hey, Adam, How many setups you do today? Zero. How many cookies you eat this week? More than zero. Get it? That's it. That's simple. Do you really want a six-pack? It's not my words that matter. It's the actions. I ask my kids, hey, who wants to go watch this new movie that came out? Eh, nah, maybe.

No enthusiasm. And it's not a yes. Yes, please. Guess what they're saying? I don't really want to do it. They're saying words like maybe. I don't know. Okay. But adulting, right, knowing how to understand human behavior,

actions are more important than words. Okay, kid, do you want to go? Nah, no. Ba'h, meh, blaze, whatever, right? Get the point. It's actions. So I want to get a six-pack. Okay, great. I don't have a six-pack. It's six months later. Okay, great. How many setups do I do in the last six months? Zero. I don't think I've done one setup. I walk every day. 10, 12, 15,000 steps, sometimes 17. I just hit 21,000 the other day. It's hours and hours of walking. But I really enjoy it. It's meditative. It relaxes me. I get out in nature. I get the walk and the weather's nice, so on and so forth. Great. Clear's my head. I don't do it in one, you know, five-hour blocks.

I do small walks, but multiple times a day. And it breaks up the monotony of sitting, and I'm not sitting there all day, and just sit and sit and sit and sit and sit. I get the move. All right. But if my goal is to get a six-pack, and I'm walking every day,

it's not the action that's going to help me get my goal. And that's the yellow brick road. Find the goal and then figure out what action do you need to take to accomplish that goal. And then reassess. This weekend, sit down with a yellow pad, paper and pencil. You want to do on the computer, feel free.

iPad or whatever you want. And I'm going to sit down. Okay, great. What do we have? What do I want to do? What are my goals? What did I want to accomplish in January? In March, end of the first quarter, I readjust every month, every quarter. Am I on the right track? What actions have I taken? I just heard a great line shared with my wife and kids from somebody speaking and said that their second grade teacher taught him if you want to do something, but you're not doing it, that means the first step is too big. Just make the first step smaller. Instead of doing 20 setups or 50 setups, just do One. Every day, just do one setup. I can do that job. Okay, great. Or do a crunch. One crunch. I can do that. Whatever the case, I'm just using sit-ups because it's easier people to relate to it.

Now, it could be taking a lot of action. Adam, I'm walking on average. Let me check my phone. Yeah, about 14,000 steps a day is my average. Over the last seven days it says, okay, great, somewhere around that range. Great. So I've been walking a lot. Whether it's beautiful. It's summertime. Great. Guess what? Doesn't matter. My goal is to be healthy and walk. Great. That counts. that matters. But the action I'm taking has to be aligned with my goal. How many sales calls did you make? How many emails that you know, so on and so forth, whatever the goal is, make sure the actions are the highest ROI actions you can take. R.I's return on your investment. So I can fold socks and be busy folding socks. It's not going to help me get a six-pack or accomplish my goals.

Unless of my goals can be the best sock folder in the world. That's a low ROI task. focus on highest ROI tests. And then make sure I do other things that are aligned with them. Eat right, move, so on and so forth. Whatever those tasks are. But that's the Elibook Road. Get the goal and then figure out a path to get there. And then periodically check in and make sure you're on the Elibrick Road and you get the Oz.

Up next, we've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only investors edge. It always happens right before the whistle. There's a little voice that says, what if I mess up? What if I'm not ready? I see a whole highlight reel of everything I don't want to happen. Missed shots, turnovers, letting my team down.

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You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action! In the Gester's Edge. with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge.

In case you're just joining us from as any part of this show, you can go to GaryK.com. Rewind, fast forward. Listen on any device you want, anytime you want, all for free on GaryK.com. All right, Lantz covered in today's show.

We spoke about the market, spoke about the look at the forest, not the trees, spoke about bullish paths forward, potential bearish ones. But we have bullish catalysts, lots of them, that could help the market go higher and possibly move us into a very strong second half of the year

and beyond like we've seen before 7 30 this 2013 2017 2019 2020 22 21 come to mind as just strong years second half of 2020 strong year so after you get that big shakeout that 20% down which we had in the first quarter of this year then all of a sudden second quarter you came roaring back and now you break out to new highs. So, you know, bearing some unforeseen major event, the environment strong. A few other things. Canada, US, of course the Trump came out right before Friday afternoon and say he's going to end the US is going to end the trade talks with Canada because of a digital service tax that upset him. In the end, I believe a deal will get done. You know, you're going to have some back and forth and you might raise tariffs again and this,

any other thing, but if you just look at things historically, you know, deals between nations tend to take time and sometimes they're bumpy or they're messy or so on and so forth. And there's lots of other deals that are coming up, you know, behind this as well. So a few other things. Let's talk about this morning woke up to some news. China confirms detail of the U.S. trade deal. So there's progress there and the trading partner, China is much big. bigger than Canada, but so far we'll probably get, if I had a guess, a deal done with Canada

at some point, how long it'll take and how bumpy, who knows. But the market, just again, focus on the market remains very strong. Extended, but strong. So a few other points, we spoke about the Yellow Brook Road, you know, doing some post analysis on the trades is the last thing I want to cover. In the last few minutes that we have remaining here, we spoke about this before. It's a really powerful tactic to use to get an insight at your own behavior. And a powerful tactic to help you find clues on how you can improve. We all can improve. We're humans.

We all make mistakes. That's okay. Providing we learn from them, we study them. Almost fall in love with our mistakes. So they don't keep repeating over and over and over and over and over again like I did for so many years, right? Because I don't want to take the time to do this post analysis. What is post analysis, you might ask?

Real simple. Print out or take screenshots of all your trades. Put them in two folders. W and L, winning folder and losing folder. All my winning trades, all my losing trades. Each trade, where I entered, where I exited. And then the reasons why. What was I thinking at the time? If I can't remember, that's great.

That happens. If I can't remember, great. Entry, exit. Did I buy late? Did I chase? Did I have FOMO? Notice the list. language, fear of missing out, fear, emotion. Emotions drive most of our decisions, not logic.

We think we're logical humans. Most people I speak to, yeah, I'm logical. But when it comes to making decisions, there's biases, there's cognitive biases. You can Google it if you want, there's lots of them. But one of them is a personal blind spot bias where you can't see yourself objectively. Meaning, you ask a hundred newly weds, get them together the night of their wedding. Raise your hand if you think you're getting divorced. Nobody's going to raise their hand. Yet statistically we know half of them are getting divorced. That's a bias, right? I speak to people, investors all over the world and I've interviewed over a trillion dollars on my podcast, Smart Money Circle. You can go on YouTube or Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. Sirius XM just picks up the show.

And I want, the whole idea is to get timeless advice, CEOs of publicly traded companies and big money managers. And we're humans. And when I speak to these investors, hey, raise your hand if you think you're going to beat the market. Everybody raises her hand and think they're going to beat the market. Yet we know most people don't beat the market. Why? Emotions. They make emotional decisions.

There's no structure. They don't want to take the time to do the post analysis to do the work, the Yellow Brick roads. What are my goals? Am I meeting my goals? How can I improve? What mistakes are I making trading? It's very easy to hide those mistakes. No one's really looking, unless if you work for a firm or something, but, you know, most people

listening, it's easy for people to hide mistakes. Embrace them, look at them, befriend them, make them your friend so they don't stop happening over and over and over and over again. So the winners and the losers, and then I look for patterns in my own behavior. And it becomes clear after looking at all the trades you did this year or the last 12 months or the last 24 months or 36 months or whatever you want to do. You'll start and then keep going throughout the rest of the year, next year, the year after. You'll start looking and you'll see patterns Oh man, I thought I'm buying right, but it turns out I'm chasing, or I'm buying too early, or I'm buying too late, or, or, or, or.

And then whatever you learn, those things become extremely powerful, extremely powerful, because you can improve. That's the beauty of what we're doing. This is a performance-based business. We all get paid based on our performance. The ones that perform very well, like Steve Cohen, he can buy the Mets, literally, because as profits from trading. Very few people are in that top echelon, the top 1% of traders and investors. Most people aren't able to break out of those loops. They're still making emotional decisions.

They think they're making logical ones, so on and so forth. And the idea is to be able to upgrade the user. Just like we upgrade our cell phones, upgrade our computers, upgrade the software. You know, we want to upgrade our thinking, upgrade the decision-making. Because all that matters is the quality of our decisions. We make better decisions. Guess what? Things tend to be better. If I make a lousy decision, another lousy decision, another lousy decision, yeah, I'm not going to really have a good outcome most of the time. Again, I'm speaking generally, right? There are exceptions. I get it, but in general. So you take the time to study your behavior, study your mistakes, learn from them so we don't repeat them. Guess what? You can improve. You can stop making those

decisions over and over and over again that you thought were logical, they might be emotional, and boom, there's a breakthrough. Or you detect other patterns, breakthrough, right? The idea is there's breakthroughs. How do you learn? You've got to look. And it's not fun. Nobody wants to do the setups.

At least I don't want to do the setups. Not nobody wants to do the setups. Most people don't. Some people do when they have a six-pack, right? Same with the trading, with the investing, with any performance. So as you put the pieces together, so that's that piece about the post analysis. You've got strong action in the market. We're extended.

Let's see what happens. Take it one day at a time. Have a great weekend, everybody. I believe that's all the time I have today. This is the one and only Investor's Edge. You want to thank you very much. This has been Investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to Gary K.com.

That's Gary Kay.com. By the time I hit my 50s, I'd learned a few things, like how family is precious. Work can always wait. And 99% of people over 50 already have the virus that causes shingles. Not everyone at risk will develop it, but I did. The painful, blistering rash disrupted my life for weeks. Don't learn about your shingles risk the hard way. Talk to your doctor or pharmacist today.

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