Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - 2026 predictions [12.22.2025]

Episode Date: December 22, 2025

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Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbaum, your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad you hear, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you're listening. It's Monday, the 22nd, December, 2025. Hope you had a good weekend. Hope you're having a good holiday time as we head into the Christmas week.

Hanukkah, I believe last night was last night. Yeah, I got that right. Right. And just hope you're hanging out with you and yours and enjoying yourself and all that fun stuff. Ladies and gentlemen, an announcement. The Couch Potato Football League. My Fantasy League. I won this weekend going away. I remain one game up on the second place team going into the last week. The problem for him is I have 61 points ahead of him going into the last week. which means unless my team croaks and he has a record week, I will be the champ. I just want to let you know. This week I got big from Puka Nakua, New Orleans Saints receiver Chris Olave.

Lamar Jackson did absolutely nothing for me again, but his receiver had a running touchdown. So that helped Zay Flowers. And looks like finally, it's been years since I won the championship. So I am ready to be crowned. And my good buddy, Randy, who won it last year, will hand the trophy over at Joe Stonecrabbs in Miami at a date to be named later. Couldn't think of a better way to get that handed over to me. So just wanted to let you know My Giants lost again

So they're still the number one pick In the draft because they suck And hopefully they get a good coach for next year And I must tell you this football season is so weird Usually I have a big pick who's going to win the Super Bowl I don't think I have one The Rams look good and then they lost I think Casey's out

Baltimore's on the verge of being out Detroit's on the verge of being out Denver lost. They had won 11 games in a row. And that's your sports edition of Investors' Edge. Hey, if you don't get this show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com also on our X feed. And if you don't follow us, and X you should. If you'd like to email me, just be nice. No, just be nice. That's all. Also, we'll post it on podcast apps and the Biz TV YouTube channel. And again, this is serious talk on everything that affects you. The markets, the economy, your job, your industry, and everything else.

under the sun. I want to start the show. Predictions, 2006. Gary, you have any predictions? Because as you know, we do not predict markets. We interpret the markets. What we like doing is saying, this is an up trend, this isn't a downtrend, this looks like it's bottoming, this looks like it's topping, this isn't a bare market, this is a bull market, this is an area to avoid. For instance, payroll companies we've been telling you to avoid for a very long time. Mostly the housing and the home depots. How about the Nike in the Dow? We can go through a litany of things.

On the other end, the banks really strong. Even the regional banks are strong. Wild swings recently wide and loose in the semiconductors and very tough to play. Go on and on. Bitcoin, bare market. And could hardly even bounce. These are the type of things we tell you, and then we use the lines. If things change, we'll let you know.

But we have some thoughts. Now, we want you to be careful of a few things. You do know Wall Street's going to be out with their predictions for 2026. But we're here to let you know, none of them know what's going to happen in 20206. You need to know that. And again, this is not a rib on them. But think about 2025. Did anybody know there would be that Deep Seek, remember Deep Seek, that crashed the AI stocks early in the year?

Do you remember that? Nobody knew. Did anybody know about deliberation day tariffs which crushed the market? Do you think anybody knew that? I don't think so. There's no way of knowing all these variables that are out. there. Whether from Washington or whether from outside influences, we really do not know. Wish we did. But what we can do here is extrapolate. What does that mean? Cause and effect? Simple cause and effect.

you remember and we don't predict but we came out and said to you man j pal's taking rates to zero the 10 year yields a half percent and he's printing to nine trillion dollars and we simply said to you that has to induce inflation just cause and effect and it really wasn't a prediction it was cause and effect Kind of like watching my giants, you know, they're going to lose every week. They try, but they lose. So we have some thoughts about this year, this coming year. Let's start with what we believe is the biggest negative that's out there that nobody's going to talk about.

In fact, you know, we tape the Sunday political shows. And we don't really watch the whole things, but they never mention the debt and the deficits. So let me just tell you that in the last two months, we've averaged 250 billion deficits. You extrapolate out for a year. That's $3 trillion deficit in the next year. Now, we're not saying it's going to be $3 trillion, but it's going to be up there. as you know for a very long time, we've been saying to you, we think this is taunting the markets. If I was to extrapolate and I don't know exactly what form, I don't know what gets hit, I don't know what the

reactions are going to be. All roads lead to inflation. Simple as that. All roads lead to inflation. because we're going to get much easier money and massive debt and deficits and a weakening dollar. All roads lead to inflation. But you don't really need me to tell you this because in case you don't know, go look up PPLT, which is platinum, vertical, major blo. market palladium vertical major bull market silver almost vertical major bull market gold almost well little less vertical major bull market hmm commodities oh that's right steel that's right copper beef I can continue on I

I think all roads lead to inflation. That's all. And again, what form? I don't know. I don't know. What's the good news of that? There will be things that deflate. As you know, we think prices for houses are going to continue to come down.

Continue to come down. Continue to come down. and continue to come down. Why do we think that? Because inventory is skyrocketing. Cause and effect. Cause and effect. Cause and effect.

Got to fantasy land because of J. Powell. Now prices come down. Now, of course, not everywhere. And some areas are going to be worse than others. but cause and effect. But I'm of the belief all roads will lead to inflation. And all one has to do is study.

What causes inflation? There's price inflation. If there's a bad orange juice crop, prices of orange juice goes up. Orange is. so there's that and the same for other grown commodities

we're talking as a whole we'll let you know as that comes out up next what else do I got for predictions and then today's market much more this is the one only

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Predictions. And this one's somewhat on the easy side, but a warning shot. Prediction. There's going to be some big initial public offerings to come. out this year. What's the warning? They came out with a lot of not so big, not so big IPOs this year. They opened them hot and you were crushed. Prediction. Some of these IPOs that have been crushed this year. A couple of them are going to be big winners in 2026. I don't know which ones. but you know how we'll know there's a shot of them, they'll shoot out of range.

Pretty sure of that. Pretty sure of that. Predictions. And this one isn't hard to figure out. The Fed funds rates, whoever is picked, will take it down as much as possible. Yes, it's a voting thing, but there's going to be a lot of pressure, which takes us back to the original. point, inflation. Now, I will tell you the biggest worry I hear from the pundits is that cheap or expensive the market is. Well, by any measurement, it's up in the trees, but I must tell you that

does not have to mean trouble lies ahead. It doesn't at all. We'll keep you informed. Our one prediction that we know will come true is we're going to work our tail off, work our tail off, and work our tail off. Simple as that. And when wrong, be wrong fast and be wrong small. When right, try to let them run. And this year, the toughest year of that, because you had some sizable drawdowns. that you did not know would come back, but they did for whatever reason. I got asked to predict the artificial intelligence, but I have to say, I don't have a clue.

I don't know. A couple of times this year, I thought they were done, and they were not. In fact, as of the last two to three weeks, thought they were done again. And poof, better. Micron comes out with Bafo numbers. Lift things up, though, not everything. I'm reading every day about this data center and that data center. I'm reading all these people getting involved with it that never used to be in it. I've been asked to give my prediction on the crypto.

Well, something is happening right now that has not happened before. The NASDAQ's down a little bit from the high. crypto has been smoked and can hardly bounce off of its lows. So they have separated, like an ET when ET separated from the young boy. Remember that at the end? By the way, what a great movie. Which gives me pause because if it's doing this and the NASDAQ is not. What if the NASDAQ goes into a bare market?

And as you know, there is so much backing of the crypto's community, the investment banks that in the bare market said it was a bunch of dog, you know what, and they didn't use the word crap. Now has engaged it. Why? Because there's money to make off it. You don't think Wall Street really cares about you, right? Yeah, let's do crypto. You do need to know if a leaf off of a tree who kept being bid on and bid on and be able to. bid on and bid on Wall Street would do something with it.

This is true. Anything that moves. So we'll be careful. And we'll stay on top of things without any agenda, any ulterior motive, any bias. We will continue to cover all the news, everything that we think is important. whether it's foreign, domestic, business, outside of business, the things you need to know. We'll talk about our personal life if we think lessons can be learned. As you know in the last year, my family lost, well, I lost my father and my mom.

and boy oh boy the mix of feelings and the reactions from you I learned a valuable lesson because I was very worried when I came on here and said to you I'm heartbroken but also relieved because of what they were going through at the end of their life and I was worried people would be pissed off instead I received a bazillion email saying went through the same thing and our forever thanks

from all of you. We gained station, we lost the Portland station shut down, KBNP, that great station. Keith Lyons, our good buddy. Ron Cohen, a good friend from KFNN, Phoenix,

the station got sold. They did a new format. But the good news is, our listeners from there are listening online. That's God bless online. And as we move into the year, we'll be doing video and throwing it on video and YouTube. We're doing that after the end of the year. Have it all pretty much set up now.

Got a few things in store. We'll see where it takes us. We have been contemplating for a year doing a separate show titled Balls and Strikes. And you know what that means. We take on the mighty and the powerful without any agenda, ulterior motive, and bias. That all depends because I'm not so sure how much time we have in the day. We'll see how that goes. So that's a little bit of predictions.

I wish I had sports predictions for you, but my teams... Well, I got to say this. The Knicks, they're in the mix. I will be in New York City I will be most likely Christmas Day at the Nick game You may see me sitting right behind the Knicks bench So just take a look

It's on national TV Hey up next today's market And the markets this is the one only investors' edge Guys it's no use putting it off The best time for an underwear refresh is now Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit That stays put all day There's zero chafed thanks to four times more stretch

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He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Okay. So let's start.

First off, just letting you know the crypto is really weak. Just letting you know it was sell the news on the marijuana. And they just came right back down to Earth. We want to let you know that housing remains in a bare market. The payroll remains in a bare market. Staples, you know, they bounced a little but nothing great. I got to tell you, restaurants have been bouncing, but nothing great. defense stocks had a very strong day to day as there has been talk about Venezuela and war.

Have you been watching that? Venezuela and war. I have no clue how that plays out, but I do want to let you know. And guess what else because of the talk of Venezuela and war? Oil prices up a buck 40 today. after being down last week. I don't know how that plays out. I don't know what the heck that means,

but there's a lot of yapping on it. I think there may have been some press conference on it today. I'm not sure. On the other end, boy, the banks, financials, they're just fine. Charles Schwab breaks out of range today. City Group a new high, Morgan Stanley almost. J.P. Morgan.

After getting smacked because they said something at a conference right back up near the highs, looks like it may want to break out. European banks. I'm going to tell you, I keep reading about Europe being in dire straits and European banks, strong. So just let you know financials in good stead. And as I have said to you throughout the years, there is no chance of a bare market in stocks if financials are in good stead. no chance never seen one ever ever which takes me to more important in the semiconductors micron up another

10 today was up 10 early then only up three finished up 10 a good semiconductor day though off the highs and guess what semiconductors for us is the number one group financials and number two used to be financials one until they committed all those freaking crimes in 07 and not one went to jail not one was even indicted. In fact, they all got promoted. I'm not going to name a name, but there was one CEO that committed massive fraud. Very famous CEO back then, massive fraud, even reported in the Wall Street Journal, massive fraud, got named CEO of a merged company. There's your Wall Street for you. And I think he's a billionaire for committing fraud. But I digress. Semiconductors to us is the leading group

and they look like twice in the last month they were goners and just poof Poof First on the NVIDIA reversal day That was a horrific horrific day Next day opened down finish up Straight back to the highs

Just recently we dumped for five days, broke the 50-day moving average badly last Wednesday. Gapped up Thursday. Gapped up Friday. Gapped up today. Not at highs. Trading more wide and loose. Wide and loose means way up, way down, way up, way down. But back above the 50 day. And probably I would suggest got a little work to do in here, but I'm letting you know. There is absolutely no chance of bare markets overall if the semis and if the bank slash financials are just okay. Of course, there's areas that are bare markets. There are countries that are bare markets. There are names that are bare markets.

We're talking overall. Zero chance. How do we know when we're going to a bare market? Well, when you finally get some follow-through to those ugly, ugly days that look like we were toast. And then poof, the next day, the pixie dust, thrown onto the market. Yippy A-A. And one would suggest that had to do with the micron. And by the way, micron's prediction of earnings were gargantuan.

The only issue is there was another one called CRETO. Gargantuan prediction of earnings. Open to 214, closed at 190 and dropped to 130-something. So you never know. And CRDO remains in a bare market. What else? Well, advanced declines are pretty good. For a while they weren't.

Small and midcaps, better relative strength. That's a little broadening out. You got other areas that are stronger. You got the bottom picked up. The worst stocks last week had the best moves. And we think that has to do with tax loss selling being over. And what that means is towards the end of the year, people add up. Where do I have losses and shall I take them against gains?

So they do some selling. It's usually in the worst stocks and it makes them even worse. And there you have it. Be careful of bad relative strength tech. I know they're bouncing Oracle. They're bouncing meta and a few others. But you want to stick with the strength of the strength, the strong of the strong. The leading stocks, not the laggards.

And that's a little bit of today. All the big indices are back above the 50-day moving average after going below on Wednesday. and by the way on Wednesday, they look like crap. And they finished at the low of the day on Wednesday, which usually leads to lower prices and they gapped it right back up on Thursday. We're also being told that had to do with easier money to talk. Don't know. Don't care. To us, it's not the news.

It's how things react to the news. And then as always, we close our. eyes, hold our nose, and pray. Always asked about Tesla, well, it remains a pretty good stead. Their car numbers remain terrible as terrible can be, but all the talk of robotics and all kinds of other stuff. The rocket stocks had another strong day. Talk about SpaceX and what the valuation looks like it's going to be, has lifted them. I noticed one name. I'm not going to name names.

Here you go. 31 billion dollar market cap. No, not making this up. $31 billion market cap, 15 million in sales. That's not a joke. That's what's happening out there with some of the speculation.

And God bless them if they make money, Just remember what we tell you at the end of the road. We don't care what anybody does if at the end of the road you still have very little sales or no sales and you're losing a ton of money your stock is going to a crash when it becomes a bear market Bear markets rip down the curtains they expose and how do we know we've studied every bear market everyone. And the same thing happens every time. Money losers and no sales. Take out the machete. Don't cut at the knees. Don't cut it the hips. Way up there they cut. And a lot of times in the 90s, we'll be ready. Oh, we'll be ready. Do not let it happen to you. At the end of market is imperative for you to know exactly what you have or else. Insider buying found the new one.

We told you about Norwegian Cruise. The stock's on a roll. DoorDash. That was a little late because it came out late. Salesforce.com CRM in the Dow. Huge insider buy. Go take a look. Up next.

I'll tell you who. And whatever else. This is the one only. investors edge. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.

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Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.

You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to.

What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready. So, a guy named Mawitt. With Gary Culpe. So, a guy named Morphit, Mason. Mason Morphit, duh, is a partner of Value Act Capital, and $25 million bucks worth of Salesforce.com. He's been a director since 23.

he just bought 25 million bucks worth of the stock. Just because he did does not make the stock go higher. We're just acknowledging it and you get to decide. He paid 260 and a half. It closed at 26460. 96,000 shares. I think the guy's probably a billionaire. But he spent 25 million.

So it goes on our little screen. And it's got to, it's been bottoming. It's been a big bear market And it looks like it's trying to Move above initial range We'll see if it does I must tell you that Norwegian cruise bothers me Because when we found out

The next day The stock went from 19 to 20.20.20 and a half And I said, all right, let's see what happens Oh, it's 24 and a quarter As Carnival came out with their numbers And has gone straight up so the cruise lines are now acting better and if you notice it has not been often

that we've been able to report to you big insider buying because insiders just haven't been buying stock but when it shows up we acknowledge and we report to you symbol CRM by the way technically a break above 260 $67.90. We'll move you above a range that hit October 21st and over the last two weeks.

And if that happens, I think we'll let you know. Schedule this week, we're on tomorrow and we're gone the rest of the week. Wednesday's a half day. Friday's a full day, but we will not be on. Sorry. What else going on in the market? The froth is picking up. up again. Just be careful. I noticed some quantum stocks with no sales. One was up 20% today. You can buy, I'm not going to mention which, but $11 billion market cap with no sales and lose money. And people didn't care that it just dropped from 56 down to 20. Let's buy it again. I won't argue the point. Just know, at the end of the day, No sales companies will all go back to where they came from. Let's see.

The company announced they are showcasing their award-winning technology at the CES-2020. Good. It was up nicely today on that announcement. Amazing. Ladies and gentlemen, just amazing. In other news Well, here comes some lawsuits You ready for this story?

You know what just Brown University Two students murdered By that stupid prick That killed himself, darn it I wish he would have suffered It is being found out For months The janitor warned

Brown warned of this guy, that the guy was hanging around and casing the joint. And Brown did nothing. In fact, there were no cameras. Where was security? Doors were open? Quote unquote from the janitor, the man was circling the hallways for weeks. Before the shooting. Unbelievable.

Man, oh man. What do we say here? You better treat the janitor as good as the CEO because you never know when you're going to need them. And you better treat the person that cleans the toilets as good as the CEO because if you don't and the toilets break, your S.O.L. Just some food for thought, ladies and gentlemen. And of course, in the news, hey, California is now cutting back on immigrant health care.

The state's widening budget deficit means immigrants living in U.S. unlawfully won't be able to sign up for state subsidized coverage. I've always said, do you know why so many come here? Well, hey, it's a great country. but when they know they're going to be treated better than our own citizens, why not? You're going to give me health care? Great. You're going to give me food? Great.

You're going to give me a place to say? Great. Thank you so much. Meanwhile, as I've told you, I have engaged with homeless people. I talk to them. A lot of them are just veterans, and they get no help. from nothing it's amazing it's amazing and i've always said if you take away the incentives to come here people wouldn't come here the way they illegally let them know you ain't getting squat

come on in you ain't getting squat and you're going to be arrested once they know that what a concept huh and in the news They say mortgage rates are falling, but owners still won't sell. Nearly 30 million households, 54% of primary mortgage holders have mortgage rates at or below 4%. I hear the 30 years about 6.3 now, so it's getting closer. This is all on Jay Powell, but it's getting fixed. The market's doing its job. We'll keep your prize.

a great evening drive carefully. And when you get home, do like we do quite simple. Make sure you hug your family and hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise stay well, be well. Thanks for joining. Have a good night. Happy holidays. Bye-bye. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.k.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day.

Their zero chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with CodeCompert. That's Tommyjohn.com. Comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card, what's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.