Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - 3 Important Questions & Other Important Lessons [06.18.2024 w Adam Sarhan]

Episode Date: June 18, 2024

https://garykaltbaum.com/...

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Starting point is 00:00:26 That's Tommyjohn.com, Code Comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary CultBomb. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan, in for Gary Kay, who's out today. Today is Tuesday, June 18th, 2024, and we've got a great show for you tonight.
Starting point is 00:00:53 First off, I want to thank you very much for being here. All right, before we dive into this show, we've got a lot to cover. just as a quick reminder, some housekeeping. As you know, this is a show about you and your money and all the fun points in between. If you don't get this show in your city, you can go to garyk.com, listen live or archive. We are live Monday through Friday, 6 to 7 p.m. Eastern. Thanks to the beauty of modern technology, you can listen any time you want on any device you want for free. By just going to garyk.com and hitting play, you can pause it, rewind it fast forward as many times as you want.
Starting point is 00:01:26 So if I speak fast or if you miss something, if you want to take notes, I know people, do lots of different things with the show. Feel free to pause it, rewind it, re-listen, so on and so forth. So a few other things on GaryK.com. You can follow Gary on X, which was formerly known as Twitter, by just pressing the button
Starting point is 00:01:43 or going to at Gary Colpom on Twitter. You can also subscribe to Gary's more notes and directly in your inbox, email him about his money management business, or join his premium service, which is convictionleaders.com. And that's where he shares thoughts several times a day about the market.
Starting point is 00:01:59 He gives updates, actionable ideas, nightly webcasts, in-depth review of what he sees happening, and a lot more just about every single day. Actually, every day the market's open pretty much and on the weekend. So all that's available at convictionleaders.com. A few highlights from Gary. I have some notes that I want to cover to make sure it got everything out there right at the beginning, so I don't miss anything. And then I have a lot to share with you.
Starting point is 00:02:27 So we'll dive right in. First off, the market, just as a quick reminder, the semiconductor stocks, ticker symbol SMH, super extended right now. Now remember, folks, the markets go up down and sideways. That's all. There's literally three things a stock can do after you buy it. And there's different levels of extension or different ways markets get extended. They don't go straight up. They don't go straight down.
Starting point is 00:02:52 They don't go sideways forever. You know, I call them market states. The state changes. It's just like sometimes you're tired, sometimes you're awake, sometimes you're hungry, sometimes the state changes. Sometimes it's raining, sometimes it's sunny, hot, cold, so on and so forth. States change. And in the markets, same thing happen.
Starting point is 00:03:10 So when these semiconductors or the NASDAQ 100, for example, you can look at something like a 50-day moving average. When you get 7, 8, 9, 10, 11% above the 50-day moving average for the QQQ, the NASDAQ 100, or the semiconductors, 12, 13, 14%, depending on what you're looking at, typically. Typically, not always, but typically those are extended overstretched levels. And what ends up happening at some point, not necessarily tomorrow, but at some point, there's a pullback into the 50, either it goes sideways to the market and the 50 catches up, or it goes down and drifts lower into the 50.
Starting point is 00:03:46 And that's what we mean by extended. So, you know, timing in life is so important. You can ask any comic or any comedian, ask anybody that invests or trades for a living or ask anybody just about any area of life. A professional athlete, they swing the bat too early, you're going to miss the ball. Same pitch, same ball. Swing at the right time, you can crack a home run. Swing a little bit late, you get a foul ball.
Starting point is 00:04:08 So on and so forth, right? So I always like to use the example of the proverbial guy who meets a girl at, you know, and then day one right away when he first meets her, hey, want to get married? Same guy, same girl, maybe six, 12, 18, 24, 36 months later. Same question. Nothing's changed except for the time. element, you might get a complete different answer. So that's with the timing element. Just understand where you are and, you know, avoid that phomo and chasing and all the fun stuff
Starting point is 00:04:35 that comes with the emotional side of investing, which is something I'm going to be discussing later in the show. So that's the semiconductors. Second point, the broad market acting a little better in the last couple of days, but nothing special. Third, the 10-year yield continues to plunge, which is good news near-term, but Gary's wondering what it means about the going forward because a lot of economically sensitive stocks are in trouble. So that's more or less the highlights from Gary that he wanted me to share with you. Now, a few other news items, which I'll cover briefly and then, or quickly, and then I'll dive into meat of what I want to share with you today.
Starting point is 00:05:14 And that's a lot of the things that a lot of people don't discuss when it comes to investing and trading and all the fun stuff that is my world, the psychological analysis, right? that's the title of my book and it was number one on Amazon for about three months after it came it was published and the idea is to remove the emotions from the decision-making process so navidia overtook amazon today sorry not amazon Microsoft so nevita overtook Microsoft today to become the largest company in the world i got called today from a few major news outlets about at Bloomberg and uh barons and a few others about hey what do you think what do you think what do you think? What do you think? Well, think about it. The market's reflecting what's happening in the economy.
Starting point is 00:06:00 NVIDIA is providing a tremendous amount of value, and they provide graphics cards or chips that's just about in every single computer in the world. Then, or for the most part. Second, their big crypto business, right? And Bitcoin was just recently at all-time highs. Then you've got the AI component, which set the stock on fire over the last, you know, several quarters and like year and change. And they are the leader in making AI chip stocks or chips, excuse me, in the stock market. So out of all the chip stocks in the market, Navidia is the leader by far. And demand is through, I mean, off the charts. They can't make enough chips to satisfy the demand.
Starting point is 00:06:47 And as a result, they've now become the most valuable company by market cap. that's how things work, right? Warren Buffett's partner, he just made rest in peace. Charlie Munger, he just passed away a few months ago, had a great line. And I love studying successful people and I love learning. And, you know, my whole thing is I know I don't know. So I've got one job and that's to learn. Somebody told me, you know, 15 years ago, that's my superpower.
Starting point is 00:07:13 And it really is. It's like, okay, I come into a situation, humble. I know I don't know. But that's okay. Let's learn. So I studied Buffett. I study Munger and lots of other people. And Munger is a great line.
Starting point is 00:07:26 You don't get what you want in life. You get what you deserve. I tell my kids that. I tell myself that. I tell my wife that. Same thing. So you get what you deserve. You earn it.
Starting point is 00:07:37 NVIDIA has earned that title. Years ago it was Apple. And then Microsoft overtook Apple. Now it's NVIDia. Now, will that stay forever? No. No stock stays the biggest ever. evolve, things change. And that's the beauty of the market. Right. AI is now one of the strongest
Starting point is 00:07:58 areas in the market. Other stocks are acting very well that are AI related. You can look at arm holdings, ticker symbol, ARM. You can look at SMCI is kind of waking up a little bit. Palantir's kind of waking up a little bit. And the list goes on and on. But those are the big ones, right? There are a few others, but for the most part, Navilla is the leader in that space. But AI is a really strong part and that's growing rapidly. And we're still in the early phases. So the reporter today asked me, said, hey, Adam, there's a lot of people talking about Cisco in March of 2000 and AI. And sorry, and Navidia now with AI. And I told them, I said, listen, that's possible because Cisco had the, if you overlay the charts from Cisco in the late 90s to March of 2000, it looks very similar
Starting point is 00:08:45 in the video. And I said, that's very possible. Navidia could follow the same course and then Cisco had a huge decline when the dot-com bubble burst. But I said back then, it was about 10 years or so into the internet, 20 years, Apple started, Microsoft started in the early 80s, right? This is the nascent stage of a new potential game-changing industry, which is AI. And so far, Navidia's the leader in the chip space that makes chips for AI. So, and we just saw Apple. Apple stock came to life a few weeks ago, when it announced, hey, we're going to focus a lot on AI. And we have a partnership with chat GPT and so on and so forth. So clearly, AI is front and center.
Starting point is 00:09:31 Does that mean the video is going to stay up forever? No. I don't know one stock that ever stays up forever. They all go through phases, right? The state changes. Sometimes they're leading. Sometimes they're lagging. Sometimes, you know, the very short term is very extended, expected to pull back, so on and so forth.
Starting point is 00:09:46 But just understand, okay, it's now the biggest stock in the market. Does it mean you have to go buy it right now? Again, I go back and say, are we extended? Are you earlier to the party? Are you late? Look at the 50-D-moving average. And ask yourself, hey, if I get in now, where am I going to exit if I'm wrong? And how much am I going to risk if I'm wrong?
Starting point is 00:10:04 Those three questions I always ask myself before I buy any stock. Where am I going to enter? Where do I exit? And how much do I risk if I'm wrong? Again, where do I get in? Where do I get out? And if I'm wrong, how much am I going to go? lose. Just worded. Same, same questions, but just worded differently. Because this way, I have a
Starting point is 00:10:29 clear plan before I enter. It's almost like Ben Franklin's line of failing to prepare, you're preparing to fail. Again, by failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail. So just buying stocks blindly with no exit plan, it's something I used to do. I don't recommend people do that. I don't do it anymore. It's important to plan. Plan ahead. In any area, most areas of life to be successful, you got to plan. You got to do the reps.
Starting point is 00:11:03 You got to do the set. Be consistent, right? So, that's in the video. Up next, we've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show, Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.
Starting point is 00:11:40 We manage investors' business. money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-22-5-59. That's 888-5-59. That's 8-8-5-59. That's 888
Starting point is 00:12:24 4-2-4-2-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Call Bomb Capital Management. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands, and their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort.
Starting point is 00:13:01 That's Tommyjohn.com, code comfort. Tommy John, comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX, Card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker.
Starting point is 00:13:38 The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Sprinker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might
Starting point is 00:14:13 someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Korn. It doesn't get better than this. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. In case you're just joining us or missed any part of the show, you can go to GaryK.com, rewind, fast forward, listen at your convenience as long as many times as you want over and over again.
Starting point is 00:15:07 So that's the beauty of modern technology. We left off discussing the video becoming the strongest stock in the market. And then the three most important questions I ask before I buy a stock. it's where am I going to get in? Where do I get out? You know, enter exit and then how much I risk if I'm wrong. The other side of this is knowing that it's okay to be wrong. And it's inevitable in this business. If you can actively trade stocks, I don't know anybody that's 100% right 100% of the time. Losses happen. It's a cost of doing business. You know, traditional businesses, you'd have six costs or cog is what they call it. cost of goods sold kind of a thing. If you open up a store, let's say we're going to sell men's
Starting point is 00:15:50 suits. Okay, great, we've got to buy the inventory. We've got to rent the store. There's a lease. There's employees and so on insurance and so on and so forth. There's fixed cost. Let's just say rent. Forget everything else. You're going to pay X amount of dollars every month, no matter whether you sell a million suits or a dollar of those suits. You're going to pay that rent. That's a fixed cost. In our business of trading and investing, we don't have a fixed costs, even commissions now are zero. Okay, or very close to zero, depending on which broker you use and all that kind of fun stuff. But basically, the fixed costs in this world that I associate with of trading is that you're going to take losses. It's inevitable. And the beauty of this, it's okay.
Starting point is 00:16:39 So part of my work over the last 25, 30 years or so has been just, again, I've got one job in that to learn. It's improving, upgrading the character. You know, there's nothing wrong with the market. There's nothing wrong with the economy. I looked around. I was like, oh, okay, there's one common denominator here. It's me.
Starting point is 00:16:57 It's Adam. How do I upgrade the user? Well, all right, I can get smarter. I can learn, read books, and I did that and continue to do that. And that became just a life I fell in love with learning. And I continue to upgrade the user in all different areas. How can I eat healthy or how can I, you know, all this stuff, longevity and all this kind of whatever my interests are. Okay, great. Let's bring it back here to invest in
Starting point is 00:17:21 in trading. So if you know you're going to have losses, let's study nature. How does the world work? And then how do we get aligned and thrive in that kind of environment? So let's look at nature. Let's say you have an apple tree. Thousand seeds come out. How many seeds are going to grow went to just a beautiful apple tree. One, two, maybe. And what happens to the rest of them? Poof, they've gone. They just die. Now here's a fancy term. It's asymmetric risk to reward. What does that mean in English? When you're wrong, you have one seed or 900 seeds or 9,000 seeds, whatever it is, die. So you lose one every time that that seed doesn't work. Okay. When you're right, let's say one or two seeds come out and grow into a new tree.
Starting point is 00:18:12 Okay, that tree is going to make thousands and thousands of new seeds, if not millions of new seeds, depending how long that tree lasts for the rest of time until that tree dies or is cut down. Okay, that's asymmetric risk to reward. When you're wrong, you lose one, that one seed dies, and when you're right, you block, you know, new trees blossom and almost infinite number of new seeds potentially, not literally infinite, but there's a gazillion about that word. A
Starting point is 00:18:45 tremendous amount of new seeds come out. And trading is very similar. One of the, in statistics, there's something called a bell curve, which most of us are familiar with. Some kids in the classroom get A, some kids
Starting point is 00:19:01 get B, some kids get B, some kids get C, some kids get D's and Eps and so on and so forth. Most get Cs. Okay, great, there's a bell curve, normal distribution. But there's also something called a power law distribution. and that's a little bit different where you take the same number, let's say cities, population, U.S. cities. Let's say New York, Chicago, Miami, L.A., Dallas, you know, the big cities have millions and millions
Starting point is 00:19:25 and millions of people. But there's, I don't know, hundreds, if not thousands of cities, let's just say hundreds and hundreds of cities that don't have millions of people. They have maybe hundreds of thousands of people. But if you take the average of the population of all cities and America, because of those tremendously populated cities, cities, excuse me, it's got silly in a second, those cities that are very populated, the average number of people in a city could, let's say, be a million, because some have 10 million, 20 million, whatever it is, right?
Starting point is 00:20:00 And some have a few hundred thousand. But if you're hired to make a water system or a police system or fire, whatever, essential services, hospitals for the average number of people in the average city in the U.S., it's not going to work because the water system you make might work really well for smaller cities that have small populations, but there's no way it's going to handle New York City, L.A., Chicago, Miami, Dallas, you know, the population, and they're low. It's just not going to work. So that's called power law distribution. And in business, it's pretty much the same thing. It's either a normal distribution of your customers or of your trades or power law distribution,
Starting point is 00:20:46 meaning a small amount of customers make up the vast majority of your business. So, for example, McDonald's has a normal bell curve distribution. I don't know anybody going into McDonald's going to spend $100,000 or a million dollars. Maybe somebody will, but I've yet to hear of that happening. Some are going to be super fans go there every day by, you know, spend a lot of money there. and some people are going to be on the shorter side. We go there once every two years or once a year or whenever. And then there's a big portion in the middle, right?
Starting point is 00:21:19 Okay, great. That's a normal bell curve. Now, the power law distribution in business will be something like Candy Crush or Roblox, one of these online games, just as an example, where you have millions of people use Roblox or Roblox or Roblox or whatever it is. We buy the Robux for the kids, but it's Roblox, the video game. And most of them play for free or Candy Crush. Most people play for free.
Starting point is 00:21:45 But there are some super fans that are diehard that make up 90% of Roblox's revenue or Candy Crush's revenue. Now, that small population of users spends a tremendous amount of money. And that's how the company makes their money from that small amount of users. and those users, there's so much revenue coming in that it more than makes up for all the cost of running the operation and the cost of servicing the other users. And that's an example of power law distribution. So with trades, same thing. Most trades don't work. Okay.
Starting point is 00:22:24 If you're wrong small, that's okay. Again, when you're wrong, lose one unit, whatever that unit is to you or less than one unit. 1% of your account, 50 basis point, 70 basis point, do whatever you want. Obviously, I'm not giving no investment advice of being given. This is all just general informational educational purposes. But for example, lose less than 1%. When you're right, make 5, make 10, make 20. And over time, if you have that discipline and you're consistent, you do the reps,
Starting point is 00:22:54 over time you can do very well. So up next, we've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only Investors Edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands.
Starting point is 00:23:42 And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com, Code Comfort. Tommy John Comfort perfected This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card
Starting point is 00:24:04 Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination Plus enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?
Starting point is 00:24:26 Terms apply. Lounge Access is suburb. to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen.
Starting point is 00:24:58 Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. You're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge.
Starting point is 00:25:28 He's got to be pleased with that. The crowd is just on its feet. here He's a Cinderella boy With Gary Colbomb Comes highly
Starting point is 00:25:36 recommended You're gonna feel better if you talk to him And welcome once again to Investors Edge I'm Adam
Starting point is 00:25:44 Sarhan And for Gary Kay who's out today So covered a lot on the show so far I spoke about
Starting point is 00:25:49 Navidia spoke about 10 years spoke about markets spoke about being extended about
Starting point is 00:25:54 different the three most important questions I asked before buying a stop or really making any
Starting point is 00:26:01 investment. It could be a house, could be a business, could be anything. It's like, okay, you want to do this? Even go into dinner at times or going to functions. The kids have a barbecue at school tonight. Okay, what time does it start? What time does it end? And then what's the worst? I can happen? I can leave anytime. Okay, great. I'll take that trade. I'll go and socialize that fun with happy face. Okay, great. That's how my brain works. Every trade is a decision in my mind's eye, right? I think in trades or I think in, really, I don't think in trades. I think in risk and reward. Because let's peel back. a little bit. Let's go a little bit deeper. What is a trade? There's an element of risk
Starting point is 00:26:38 and there's an element of reward. That asymmetric risk award you spoke about earlier, right? When you're wrong, the idea in the way that I function is to be wrong small. And when you're right, be right big. That's it. Over time, just like the apple tree, like nature, you'll do very well. Baseball players, by the way, same thing. The best players, baseball players, what? They hit three out of 10 somewhere in that range, four at a 10. And guess what? They're all stars. But that means they miss 7 out of 10 shots, versus pitches. I think Babe Ruth for a long time was the home run king, but he was also the strikeout king. Held the record for most home runs. Held the record for most strikeouts. And many other home run people are the same way.
Starting point is 00:27:25 Because, you know, I think it's Gretzzi's line or someone's got a great line. If you're going to miss 100% of the shots you don't take. But at the same, same time, if you swing at every single pitch, forget about that. I mean, just forget about it. So it's not going to work. If you take every single, if you buy every single stock you see setting up or whatever the case is, just buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, by, by, by, by, with no discipline, with no consistency, with no approach, Ben Franklin failing the plan is preparing to fail, then most likely your returns are going to suffer. And by the way, all this is outlined in my book, psychological analysis, you can get on Amazon. And I've got, I show my thoughts
Starting point is 00:28:05 about the market on find leading stocks.com. So when every day and all that fun stuff. So when you look at the market, the next point I want to bring up to you is that some of the most successful people I know treat this as a business. We spoke briefly about this earlier where, hey, if we're going to open up a men's suit business, we have to buy inventory, we have a rent, you know, so on and so forth. But trading or investing, if this is what you want to do as a side gig or hustle, whatever word you want to use, or as your primary gig, either way, it behooves you to get the best
Starting point is 00:28:42 returns possible. And part of that is treating it objectively and treating it like a business. So, for example, people that have successful businesses, by the way, do things different than people that are unsuccessful, most of the time, not always, but most of the time. And there tends to be some element of structure when you're in the business. They understand their numbers, for the most part, successful business owners understand the business, the value they're providing, they're giving value in exchange they're getting money. Very simple. And if you give more value than you ask in return for money, then you're going to have a successful business providing all other things are equal and you're honest and you're ethical and all that kind of fun stuff.
Starting point is 00:29:31 But you're really providing value. That's my MO, so to speak, or my mantra of business, what's a good word, is my guiding principle. Provide as much value as possible. And then whoever wants to engage will engage. And that's it. But if I can give you $10 in value and get $1 in return, great. Everybody wins. And that's a successful formula.
Starting point is 00:29:58 So when it comes to trading, a lot of people just wing it. I did for years. And I'm speaking from experience here. They say a wise man learns and his mistakes or wiser man learns some other people's mistakes. I want you to be the wiser person here. Man or female, it doesn't matter. Learn from my mistakes. That's why I do what I do.
Starting point is 00:30:18 I love hearing success stories. I mean, it warms my heart like there's no giving back and contributing. That's why I do what I do. Right? So we're in a situation where you have control over what trades you put on, how long you're in the trade for, when you enter, when you exit, how much you risk, if you're wrong. Of course, bearing some unforeseen major calamity. But for the most part, you're in control of those three things. Enter, entry, exit, and then risk.
Starting point is 00:30:52 Okay. If you structure it, right, doesn't mean you're going to be 100. percent right and win the market and beat the market every year and have, you know, all-star returns. No. It's not what I'm saying in any way, shape, or form. In fact, statistically, most people don't beat the market and underperform their benchmarks and so even the professional money manager, same thing.
Starting point is 00:31:15 But just like anything that's a performance-based business, there are some that rise at the top and stay there because they're doing something different, right? So when you treat as a business, you understand your numbers. we're not buying suits or fruit or produce and then selling it. Our inventory is money. Numbers. You're not dealing with cash. It's all electronic on the screen.
Starting point is 00:31:45 You've got an app probably or a website you log into to get you use your online broker in most cases. And you buy and sell based on click a mouse or tap a button on your phone and boom, boom, you're done. So it behooves all of us to really dive in deep. and understand the numbers and plan your trades in advance. And that's why everything I do, I look at a, you know, weekly charts, and then I look at daily charts, also look at monthlies. My, there's a stock here at an all-time high. Is it at a 52-week high?
Starting point is 00:32:19 Is it extended? Is it not extended? You know, I have a whole process that I do before I pull the trigger, so to speak, and actually buy a stock. Risk my money in exchange for a potential. reward. That may or may not happen. But I want to make sure that I go after high probability setups, high probability trades, high probability breakout, so on and so forth. The highest possible ones. And then the next point is master. I don't want to even say learn. Master the art and the
Starting point is 00:32:53 skill and the science of saying no. No. Warren Buffett has a great line. He goes, it's really important to know your circle of competence, meaning what are you good at? Like in the 2000s, we spoke about the dot-com, boom and bust, right? He didn't really participate in the boom. And he didn't get nailed in the bust because he knew at the time, hey, tech isn't my world. I'm an insurance guy. I know riddle roads. I know banks. I know if I understand those business. I don't understand high tech at the time. He's like, yeah, I'm not doing it for the most part. Okay. He didn't participate. What was it? 20 years later, he understands. He understands. stood Apple and then Apple became one of his biggest positions and a big massive winner as
Starting point is 00:33:34 it now it's at all-time highs we're very close to but the time go back to timing timing wasn't there so knowing the art and mastering the art of saying no hey everyone else is making money from Warren you got to buy tech stock so on and so forth he just said no no no no no him and Charlie no no oh by the way no it's a superpower think of your attention as a current currency. And people are all day, every day, they want your attention. Advertisers are bombarding us with ads. People are doing this, doing that. People want attention. And if that's your currency and you have finite amount of currency or energy throughout the day, think of energy or currency, whatever word you want to use, and you spend all your attention on something that doesn't serve
Starting point is 00:34:22 you or a low ROI activity, you're probably going to get a low ROI outcome. So learn the art of saying, no, eliminate those distractions. How does this help me? Whatever this is, right? If it doesn't help me, then I'm not going to do it. There's thousands of stocks in the market. Which one am I going to buy? Which one am I going to sell?
Starting point is 00:34:41 I don't need to buy every stock. In fact, I can't buy every stock. And I don't want to. That's okay. So what Adam's going to do is I'm looking for leaders. Here's my logic. After I buy a stock, I want it to go up. Okay.
Starting point is 00:34:56 So there's different stocks. Some go up a lot, some go up a little, some go up not so much. So I have all the stocks, I want to buy the leaders, the strongest of the strong, because those are going up the most. But not just blindly buy them, because they could easily pull back if they're extended, like the SMH or NVIDIA, the semiconductor stocks or NVIDIA right now. They're extended. But wait, and be patient.
Starting point is 00:35:15 Timing element, but buy them as they're coming out of favorable risk to reward entry points, breaking out of bases, pulling back at the moving averages, and then bouncing, inflection points, so on and so forth. And then over time, there's going to be losses and there's going to be wins. Overtime tend to do well. But the highest ROI activity. So, and again, the art of saying no. All right.
Starting point is 00:35:40 Up next, we've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sauri, and this is the one and only Investor's Edge. It's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. There's zero shape thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands and their innovative horizontal quick draw fly is a game changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you.
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Starting point is 00:37:11 bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spricker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.
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Starting point is 00:38:20 Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan in for Gary Kay, who's out today. In case you missed any part of the show, you can go to GaryK.com, rewind, fast forward, pause, take notes, do whatever you want to do on any device you want for free 24-7 all on GaryKK.com to listen to the show, rewind it fast forward, etc., etc. So that being said, if you are listening on a podcast app, give Gary five stars. Follow the subscribe, like and subscribe, you know the drill.
Starting point is 00:39:00 It does go a long way to help other people. And we want to help Gary. He's a great guy. Let's do something nice. So next, we spoke about no, art of saying no. That's what we picked up. Okay, next thing I want to share with you. When you learn the art of saying no, inevitably, there's going to be some stocks that get away from me and you miss them. I didn't buy X, Y, Z. Oh my gosh. Guess what? That's okay.
Starting point is 00:39:29 It's like the high school boy who goes into the school dance and wants to kiss every pretty girl. on the dance. It's not realistic. Instead of being upset and going home, find one that you can be happy with and do your best to sink your tit into a leading stock, to own a leader, and just focus on it. And there's going to be other pretty girls in the dance. That's okay. You just need one. You'll be very, very happy. Same thing with the stock market. You buy one or two good leading stocks, three or four liters, whatever the case may be, five or ten leaders. God bless. buy the more the merrier. You can do extremely well.
Starting point is 00:40:10 I think one or two stocks this year has more than made my year, where I'm easily beaten the market. Why? Because that's just been the way that things worked out this year. Now, last year, I might not have. I might have been way underperforming or the year before, whatever. Things change.
Starting point is 00:40:28 No one's going to consistently catch every single leader, every single time, every single cycle, and hold on them, guaranteed, every single day. That's not, it's not realistic. So when you have that FOMO or that seeing that next shiny object, oh, I should have bought Apple, or I should have bought XYZ or LMNLP or QRS or TUV, and you didn't buy it. Take a deep breath. And come to terms of it and accept it and move on. Focus on the next win. Tim Grover, well, I'm not affiliated with. He's the coach for Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant.
Starting point is 00:41:03 has a great line. And he coached these guys. And coached Dwayne Wade and some other guys. Great, great, successful basketball. Had two great books. One's called Relentless. And the other one's winning. W number one and N-I-M-G.
Starting point is 00:41:16 Instead of W-I, it's W-N-N-N-B-1. All right, great. Great books about winning, you know, that kind of stuff. And he would say the night Jordan won the championship, like, oh, champ, you know, what are you thinking? What are you going to do? People like, oh, I'm going to Disney World, whatever. He's focused on the next win.
Starting point is 00:41:33 instantly, everything else is blocked out. Celebrates, enjoys himself short, but he's focused like a hawk at the gym. Bam, let's get going. The next win. That's key, because if you can clear your mind of where your attention is limited, right? Where you focus on, your energy flows. So if you focus on all the losses or all the stocks that you missed, most likely what's going to happen? You're going to keep missing stocks.
Starting point is 00:41:57 If instead you focus on the next win and learn from your mistakes. Post analysis is one of the most important things. I do that with some coaching lines. Really, really important post analysis. It's hard to do that because you have to look at yourself and look at your mistakes. But if you don't do that, you're just going to end up most likely repeating those mistakes over and over and over again. I did that for years. And then finally I'm like, okay, enough is enough.
Starting point is 00:42:21 You know, fool me once, fill me twice, fool me ten times. Eventually I got to wake up and stop doing these same mistakes over and over again. So, you know, that's the post analysis component. But again, it comes down to honest, intellectually, be intellectually honest with yourself. It's very easy to put things under the rug. But eventually, it becomes a mountain.
Starting point is 00:42:43 You've got to address these things. Why is this keep happening? And then the attention, focus on the next win. Instead of beating yourself up, it's really easy. I can speak and test and be the first person. Beating yourself up is one of the easiest things people can do. but who do you talk to more than anybody else in the world yourself watch that language very carefully
Starting point is 00:43:06 something I can change my life my internal conversation where I shifted it from me or switched it from a negative to a positive okay you made a mistake you're human guess what it's gonna happen and I see it in my kids look at young kids when they make a mistake they really hard on themselves why you're human it's gonna happen you're gonna make mistakes that's okay focus on the next win notice the energy change.
Starting point is 00:43:29 And more importantly, you're clearing the air, finding the next win. Instead of, by the way, which is a high ROI activity, finding the next win, instead of beating yourself up, which is a low ROI activity. You can learn from the mistake, sure. But the beating yourself up part, that's a negative ROI activity, which I did, and I don't recommend people do because there's no ROI. So I hope a lot of this stuff has helped you. You can get more of my stuff at psychological analysis of the book.
Starting point is 00:43:55 and really, you know, tomorrow the markets are closed for the holiday. Garrett will be back on Thursday. And as you put everything together, you know, empowering yourself with a positive attitude and a positive outlook, it's really, really helpful. Being optimistic, understanding the biggest wins are in front of you. Marty Schwartz talks about that from a great book. It's called Pitbull. Again, I'm not affiliated in any way, shape, or form.
Starting point is 00:44:25 I'm just sharing what I learned, some books that I like, Pitbull, Relentless Winning. And he says your biggest wins are in front of you. I think he wrote the book a few decades ago. And it's so true. But if you focus on the losses and the one that already happened, guess what? You'll be taking your energy instead of finding the next win
Starting point is 00:44:48 and learning from your mistakes objectively and putting that energy into losses, losses, and beating yourself up and all that kind of stuff. So, you know, mind that conversation, be aware of that conversation. And if you have to change the narrative, because you're in control of the story you tell yourself. Not me. Not anybody else. So what story are you telling yourself?
Starting point is 00:45:11 A powerful one that empowers you or a negative one that drains you? One that energizes you, that opens you up to abundance, that helps you find new opportunities or one that's negative. And just because you told yourself a negative story for years doesn't mean you have to keep telling yourself a negative story. That's also big, really big. You have the power to change it and change it like that. Find those leaders. You miss some. That's okay. But that relentless mindset and that winning mindset is, okay, how do I get better? How do I improve? What can I learn from missing that leader so it doesn't happen the next time around? Am I looking at markets too often, infrequently?
Starting point is 00:45:53 maybe I should be doing it more, maybe I should doing it less. Whatever adjustments need to make, find those lessons. Do that work. Because the results, my goodness. My goodness. I'll say one more time, my goodness. Life-changing potential on the other side of this. So hope you find all this helpful.
Starting point is 00:46:13 Gary says, hug the kids. Enjoy yourself. Keep your losses small. Never fight the tape is what I like to say. Have a great day off tomorrow if that's off for you. Gary back on Thursday. Thank you, everybody. This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com.
Starting point is 00:46:34 That's GaryK.com. Guys, it's no use putting it off. The best time for an underwear refresh is now. Tommy John Underwear is designed for a perfect fit that stays put all day. Their zero-chafe thanks to four times more stretch than competing brands. And their innovative horizontal quick-draw fly is a game. changer. With over 30 million pairs sold, there are thousands of men out there more comfortable than you. Don't settle for less. Go to Tommyjohn.com today for 25% off your first order with Code
Starting point is 00:47:04 Comfort. That's Tommyjohn.com code comfort. Tommy John. Comfort perfected. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change.
Starting point is 00:47:38 See Capital One.com for details.

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