Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - 3.449%

Episode Date: January 12, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

At Arizona State University, we're bringing world-class education from our globally acclaimed faculty to you. Earn your degree from the nation's most innovative university online. That's a degree better. Learn more at ASUonline.asu.org. Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host. A thanks of being with us today. glad you hear ladies and gentlemen happy that you are listening it is uh january 12th it's thursday it's two thousand and twenty three i signed the check today two thousand and twenty two

it's just how it works what can i say hope you having a good day lots to cover lots to discuss everything that affects you our future your future your job the economy the markets and all else in between. We curry no favor with anyone. We can't stand any of them. We never even used to have to talk about them. And now they have to be front and center because they are nothing more than big,

gigantic control freaks that don't leave us the hell alone. So we'll do a little bit of that. But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, we'll post it at garyk.com. We'll also post it on our Twitter feed. At our Twitter feed, you can follow us, just put our name in or, and by the way, there's people now, I guess it's flattery, that are now fake Gary Colpoms on Twitter.

Wow, really? Me? Why would they do that? Little old me. You can also press the Twitter button at GaryK.com for that. You can email me and all you got to do is be nice. That's it. All you got to do is be nice.

We're nice. If we had friends. They would tell you. By the way, I do have friends. You know what I do have and you know how it works? My best friends in life are from elementary school and high school, completely skipped over college. I have some friends from college, but we're not close or anything. That happened to all you too?

My best friends in life, elementary and junior and high school. Anyway, let me just start with this. This is what we're dealing with. And it's funny and unfunny. You know how they ripped President Trump on this documents? I mean, they didn't stop. They didn't stop. They didn't stop.

accusing him of everything under the sun. Oh, one person, I'm not making this up. MSNBC, treason should be hanged. He should be executed. No, not kidding. For the classified documents. Well, a second tranche of documents have been found from Biden in his home, in a garage. And now we're also finding out they knew.

about it months ago before the election. You got me? Remember what I said about the last administration, the biggest lying sacks a crap in the history of time. I really do believe they're taking the championship belt away from them. And I follow this stuff. They held back the news on these classified documents until after the election and at specific times. They've known about it for a couple of months. These are the people running our country. These are the people that are telling you things about what's going on. And we're supposed to believe them.

Anyway, I'm just laughing about it. Remember, we can't stand any of them. As you know, I am fiscally conservative, socially, I'm logical. And when I say conservative, it shouldn't be a curse word to want very simply. balanced budgets and efficient and effective and non-corrupt government. Yeah, that's terrible to be conservative. And in case you do not know, the latest big gargantuan con and scam foisted upon you, my precious listeners, is the latest budget.

the con the scam the blob Joe Biden looking you playing three card money with you telling you that how he's cut the deficit in shreds lie blatant lie they knocked down

COVID no more spending that was an outlier this coming year it'll be a record 1.4 to 1.5 trillion dollar deficit a record but he's given himself pats on the back laps around the track

and next up and more sickening than that and I don't know if you can get more sickening the year before COVID hit was 2019 that year federal spending was $4.4 trillion dollars

Joe Biden personally is amped it up the year after COVID $6 trillion. And you know what happens from there? It never goes down. Now, mind you, I believe we have the same amount of people that we had in the year 2000. Our federal spending that year was $1.8 trillion. It's now $6 trillion.

And you want to know why I think we are screwed going forward, that eventually it's going to blow up. remember they're not efficient they're not effective every dime comes out of our hide DC does not open the lights on the doors to the Washington Monument nothing without our tax dollars and the debt that they are crushing us with and as this as DC grows our headwinds grow. Case closed. And now they're blaming well entitlements, Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.

Yeah. Guess what those are? Government programs that they screwed up. Remember what we told you. The greatest Ponzi scheme of all time is Social Security. Imagine they take money out of your check throughout your life to pay. you when you retire. How did that come to be? How did it come to be that they control that money? Do you realize if there was never any sole security? And it was just an automatic deduction from your paycheck into an account that's not under government control. And 100% of that money went into just 10-year bonds, rolled over every 10-year. it'd be all your money and it'd be a ton more than you're getting now and we wouldn't have to worry

about demographics because that's where they screwed up they forgot the more people live longer and retire longer the more social security they take and the more social security take once they've stolen all the money they need more workers to pay for the retiree the gargantuan Ponzi scheme of all time coming from them. Yet they use that as why. And they get pissed at anybody and it works. Never touch Social Security. It's a lie.

It's a scam. It's a con foisted upon you. When all you needed was your own little account. But that's what is known as government control. control freaks you know there was a move of foot quietly a few years ago for them to take over your 401Ks and your retirement accounts

I don't know if you know that it lasted two days not sure you know about it they were going to try and do that these miseries so I just want to let you know the liar in chief taking the championship belt away from the last guy

$6 trillion in federal spending this year up from $4.4 trillion the year before COVID and that's I go year to year. COVID I separate because PPP, big spending, vaccines, the whole works. We are so screwed, ladies and gentlemen, I cannot begin to tell you. And yes, I know the Republicans are speaking up, but they don't have any power except to put in bills that'll get vetoed by the control freak and charged. And that's how we start today. Up next, the better news. I'm Gary. This is the one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.

We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-9. That's 888422-5-5-9. That's 888-4-22-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through call-bomb capital management. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confuse.

used relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show. You show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well

publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this.

All right. Jeff Beck passed away. top five guitarists of all time that most people even know who the hell he is you can go look it up one of the greatest guitarists of all time all the greats getting old I think and he just died pretty I got bacterial meningitis and just died don't really not sure how long he's had it but man oh man um you know it used to be counting on my fingers the favorites Glenn Fry, Tom Petty, Bowie. It's getting bigger and bigger.

And, you know, of course, they're getting older and older, and of course, I'm getting older and older. I speak to people. You know, Jeff Beck is, isn't he a musician? Top five of all time. And people have their differing top fives. I ask my brother, who's a maniac, he thinks Steve Howe of yes, should be right in there.

But Hendricks, Van Halen, Beck, Paige, Clapton, there's a almond. There's a good, you know, 10 to 20. But top five for me, I just gave you. Don't think anybody can ever eclipse Hendricks. I put Eddie Van Halen right behind them. When I retire, I'm getting an electric guitar. I'm going to get lessons. That'd be pretty cool.

I should do it now, right? Okay, so coming into today, we had another inflation. number, I don't care what it was. And nobody really wants to listen to us, but we've said it exactly the way it should be. What we have said to you, forget the Fed. Watch yields. Watch the 10-year yield. If it goes down, the markets usually react well. And of course, it goes down reacting to things the inflation number but we just put it aside our job is the reaction to things and today yields dropped the 3.449% on the 10-year yields it was 4.33 on October 21st 4.3 in December when we went

from 3-4 to 3-9, the market was trashed. In recent days, it's come nothing but down and down hard. Guess what the market has done? That is an absolute direct correlation, and we will stick with it until it changes. Correlations don't last forever. Now, part of that correlation is the dollar. The dollar broke to another relative low. today on that.

And again, there are people parsing the inflation numbers. Have fun at it. We know there's inflation. I tell you, I go to public supermarkets. Holy crap, what I have to pay? Halloween. Bag of chocolates. That would usually go for 1099.

We're going for 1499. Eggs. My goodness. But there are other things that are better. And as we have said to you, lumber prices, though they're starting to rally a little bit. Way, way, way down. Copper. Way, way down, but they're turning up again something to watch, and I can go on and on. So guess what happened last Friday? A very strong day.

And what did we say to you last Friday? Probably another low has been put in. That's what we said to you. after a nauseating December and then three weeks of nothingness, with some teases to the downside, Friday was the lever. And all we can tell you since then, the best market days we have seen since the highs of the bull market, better than any other rallies we have had during this bear market. to the point, well, listen, if Caterpillars are in a new yearly high, that's not in the bare market anymore, right? The United Kingdom, the Futsi, 100, FTSC, is it a new high? Foreign markets better. And every day we've just been repeating to you, advance declines. And today, what was interesting, just so you know, yields were down big time early, and the market was ramping,

then yields started going back up. markets came in and then yields dropped again to where we are and I'm just going to read the advanced declines again before I even get in the numbers 3,241 up on the New York, 855 down, NASDAQ 3,160 up, 1160 down. And as we said to you, and this was our quote, more days like this and the indices are gone higher. And guess what the indices again did today? higher. Simple as that. There's not even much more I need to even add. It's just watch the yields. And what you're also getting now, Taiwan Semiconductor, lowered revenues going forward, missed sales. Stock was up 6% today. Why do I bring that up? Guess what we're going into tomorrow morning.

We start with the financials and then boom, major league earning season. So stay tuned. There's still not a lot of leadership. It's a lot of stuff coming off the lows. But I also must tell you, you've had skyrocketing move off the lows and you're ready for this? Airlines. And airlines have moved above the December top. What's with that?

Global recession? Isn't that what we've been told? Now, you know what we think down the road? But right now, airline skyrocketing, Caterpillar at New Highs, the UK at New Highs, global recession? No shot! Now, as we always do here, we'll take it day by day. We have no idea what tomorrow brings, but we'll plainly tell you, plain English.

There's only one way the market's going if they're. This continues on advanced declines every day. Only one way. And yes, the bears are still out there. The world is ending. Pay no attention. Just like the permibuls told you just keep buying all the way down. And by the way, the perma bulls are out there feeling really good right now telling you how good they are.

Even though they destroyed wealth. All we can tell you is last Friday, the lever, and since then, dang, we're impressed. Up next. where are we impressed? This is the one that only investors edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreker makes the whole process. simple. You record your show,

upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for well, more microphones. Start your show today at

spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You are listening to. America is talking Investors edge

He's got to be pleased with that The crowd is just on his feet here He's a Cinderella boy With Gary Coltbaum It comes highly recommended You're gonna feel better if you talk to him By the way Nah you know what, screw it

I'm done with the Biden thing today We'll leave that big We'll get into the crux fit The market wrap is brought to you by Investment Investment dash Models.com That's Jim Moraback One of the great market timers

No gray area with the man you're either in or out of the market was proprietary indicators go check it out investment dash models dot com Dow up 216 was up 310 s mp 13 NASDAQ 69 NASDAQ 757 lagging there socks up 34 transports 98 but you know about the advanced declines a shout out near term a shout out the good and bad. And I think, I think, I said this yesterday. We are at maximum, what I consider to be maximum, overbought in the market. And what that means is too far too fast.

Even though the indices really haven't moved that big, it's individuals. We're maximum overbought. Here's the good. In order to get maximum overbought, you have to have some moving. I don't think it's bad news, but you're getting closer to, I think, let me give you the better good news. If nothing changes, remember those three words, we use it a lot, if nothing changes, and this maximum overbought gets worked off. And how is it usually worked off? time and price.

Sometimes it's worked off where you just make a right turn in price and sit around for a bit. Sometimes you pull back. Sometimes you have sector pullbacks, but overall decent shape. If it is controlled, if we don't see serious distribution, after the over-bought condition gets relieved, we're going to go higher. That's how bullish phases work. And overbought means, man, everybody who wants to buy bought and it gets petered out. And we do it by watching.

I don't really watch too many, but I get certain things from certain people that are pretty good on it. They're called oscillators. You can go look it up. it's I think the highest I've seen in ages and usually reserved for climactic moves and I can promise you we don't have any climactic moves here so stay tuned on that does overbought mean we got a pullback nope

does overbought mean we've got we can't go up another 200 tomorrow nope we just try to put a little bit odds in our favor based on the weight of the evidence and historical things that we know just by all the studies we've done and how we do this all the time. That said, earnings in earnest start tomorrow, and I can promise you there are going to be some good stocks blow up and some bad stocks, maybe turn up. Always know when things are being reported. But I don't have really any complaints. That said, I also love the other side. what do we get to do now well under the heading it's easiest to isolate weakness when the market is strong we are going to start gauging what ain't happening what can't even budge what's not keeping up with

the joneses as they say why we'll know they're going to be cells and i can tell you flat out on this rally there's a little better tone in some of what we call the higher beta stuff, but they still suck. They still look like they're being taken up on a leash of the rest of the market. And we think you should be careful there, though some of them have turned a quarter a little bit here. Why, a better market will lift more boats. So we're giving you a little bit of this, that, and the other thing here as we head into tomorrow. and we're getting a good start to the year. Please do not believe the people that are telling you,

oh, we're now going to have a great year because the first week and we're going to be a percent. All we've needed to do here is let the market be our guide. Friday meant something to us. It's happened a few times in the bare market. We called counter-trend rallies a few times. several of them were very good rallies. A couple of them lasted a day.

This one's the best. Not in the indices, not in duration because it just started. This one's the best in what I consider to be the bettering of the internals and the technical patterns in the market. And stunning in some moves. I mentioned the airlines.

That sticks out. They pretty much gone from south to north, vertical in six, seven days. I'm not making that up. And by the way, there's really been no news except American Airlines came out today and said something good. If you go look at Delta, it's gone vertical over the last one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, off of the lows after December drop. And most importantly, like a delta, is above December and by far, while the S&P's not even close. Well, getting there.

The NASDAQ? Okay, getting there. The Dow? Not there either, but getting there. So on an individual basis, stocks acting better than the indices, which is the opposite of bad.

The areas that still stink, we've told you which ones. And we'll keep telling you. Otherwise, advanced declines. In the Dow today, Boeing up another six. Caterpillar up another four, new high. Disney bouncing up three because Nelson Peltz wants to get on the board. Goldman up five, but they report, I think, Monday. Honeywell up three. Microsoft up two. United Health up two. They report tomorrow, and United Health has been under pressure. V's up a little bit, acting better, but still hasn't moved down. Even Salesforce.com. Hey, fire 10% of your people go up in price. Gold was up today. Why? Dollar down.

If your currency player continue to be short the dollar along other currencies. Doesn't make us bad. It just they had a big run. And at least the bond market is making the bet that things are going to get better inflation-wise. For now.

Just remember markets are fleeting. Just remember things change. What we do here best is when things change, we tell you, like Friday, and we keep your prize until they change again, which we did pretty darn well throughout the whole bear market every time the counter trend rallies topped. And that's today. Again, the big news, 10-year, 3.449 down from 4.33. That is a huge move down since October. huge up next we have no clue what tomorrow brings all we can tell you is the weight of the evidence

improved again today markedly we still don't have big leadership yet but i can promise if it continues oh it will show up always has always will name of the game now that said i've said that said a bunch of times. We think at the end of the road, we can't continue to have government grow like they are, tax the hell out of us like they are. Up next, news of the day. Whatever else, I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your

next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple.

You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Sprinker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect,

like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details.

You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Investors Edge. With Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investors edge uh by the way i did i mention that they got a general counsel on this

biden classified document things uh garland announced uh general counsel he had no choice because you do it to trump you got to do it to uh you know what goes for the goose goes for the gander and again i think the bigger story is they held the news until after the election and they timed it to uh benefit them the most you know what that makes them you go chavez uh articles i wanted you to know about. Prince Harry's book hit sales records. 1.4 million copies in the US, UK and Canada on the first day. Wow. People really have an interest in the monarchy. I couldn't give a crap. I used to compliment this guy because he's royalty and he was going to war. He's just a woke wimp. I'm a victim.

Guys living in a $20 million home in Montecito, California. Got the world by the nuts. Married a beautiful girl. Can live a great life. What am I going to do with it? I'm going to whine and complain about everybody. Really? God bless them. 1.4 million.

My book, I think, has sold eight copies in 10 years. Article. Wall Street Journal, why federal spending exploded by Dan Henniger, very good writer. Unfortunately, he should have started the article, ended the article with this. The reason why federal spending exploded because of the politicians and the administrations over the last 20 years suck and disrespect the taxpayer and don't give a crap. That should have been the whole op-ed. No, really.

That's all. Next, just want to let you know, Sacramento, California has a $22 billion deficit, and Austin, which is the capital Texas, $32 billion surplus. Just want to let you know. Yet Texas has low taxes and California has massively high taxes. Interesting, huh?

Just food for thought. Next article, Wall Street Journal, what can you do to prepare for a recession? I repeat, a recession is when you lose your job. Excuse me, a recession is when your neighbor loses job. A depression is when you lose your job. They're still talking recession. I'm telling you ain't happening with Caterpillar at New Yearly Highs. I'm telling you, the market's smarter than all of us.

nobody wants to believe me Miami's Arena FTX Arena finally gone it's not going to be FTX anymore and goes into a long line of arenas and stadiums name after a bunch of crooked pieces of crap

next this one's interesting do you know there's a climac startup that removes carbon from open air and industry and it's a first Climbworks new technology go look up Climbworks

It's a leader in a race to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. And I guess you pay them as companies. Just letting you know, go look up Climbworks. Remember what we told you here. We don't need government to tell us what to do about pollution. We don't need to pay them. We don't need them to be corrupt in handing out dollars to their friends that never get paid back. Pollution's been taken, you know, there's a group of people that cleans the oceans.

billions and billions of pounds of crap in the oceans. A lot of this is already going on. The green movement is at hand. You don't need these scummy, sleazy politicians to go into your pocket. Remember Los Angeles? All the smog they used to have. Do they have smog anymore? Next.

Last year, 327 career criminals were responsible for 30% of New York City's 22,000 shoplifting arrests. That's what we meant when we were talking about it yesterday. 235 of them out of 327 are walking around the streets of New York right now. These are career criminals with massive amounts of shoplifting. Some of them also violence. How do they keep electing these adults? What does the matter with the people of New York City keep electing the same people? They keep saying they care about their safety and then you elect the same.

idiots. You know how you stop shoplifting? You arrest them, put them in jail, and make them pay bail. They may think twice. If they do it a second time, little worse. A third time? Really worse. You want to do it a tenth time? You may go five to ten. Guess what will happen? They'll stop. Life is pretty simple.

If you incentivize criminal activity, They are going to commit crimes. If you don't penalize it, they're going to commit crimes. Just letting you know. Just letting you know. And that's some of the articles I had of interest today. As you know, I read the Wall Street Journal cover to cover every day, financial times. I get the New York Times and I do that too, even though they're lefty and sane and biased is all hell.

But they have some great journalists out there with great, great articles on a lot of great stuff. and you just know who the creeps are. As well as you know, I have a lot of things pushed to me from people I want to hear from on Twitter. You know, you follow somebody on Twitter. It comes to you. People that write things and different areas. And that is the day. Tomorrow will be on with Neil Cavuto and Fox Business Network between noon and two.

Not sure which hour, but check that out. Tomorrow's same show. By the way, Monday we are off. And last I remember, it is MLK Day, Martin Luther King, and man, oh man, I wouldn't mind him being around right now. We'll talk about him more tomorrow. You have a great evening drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do.

It's quite simple. Make sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise until tomorrow, have a great evening, everybody. Always honored that you would listen to me. Peace out all.

Good night. This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryKK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details.