Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - A Beast of A Day

Episode Date: May 4, 2022

More Info At: http://garykaltbaum.comMore

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Coltbaum, your host.

A thanks of being with us today. Glad you're here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening. It is May 4th, 2020. It's Wednesday. And I just figured out what they mean by May the 4th be with you. What can I tell you? I hope you're having a good day.

For those with 401Ks fully invested, been feeling pain, we are thrilled for you today, as the market had a pretty good comeback today. Whether or not it sticks, we'll find out sooner rather than later. But very good move off of what we've been telling you. We'd be using the same language for a few days. stretched, extended, oversold with a big dose of bearishness in the market. And a very strong day to day. We'll get into that in a minute.

But first, if you do not get this radio show in your city, you go to garyk.com. Simple as that. We will post the show at garyk.com. We will also post it on our Twitter feed. You can email me, Just Be Nice. and all that. So today was Fed Day.

We knew what he was going to do. We knew he was going to raise rates a half a percentage point to three quarters. We knew he's been way behind. Yields have been hovering around now the threes. At two o'clock we got the news.

The market stumbled. and fumbled around until 235 p.m. We are not making this up when at 235 p.m. The Dow was down 70 points. It finished up 932 points in an hour and 25 minutes. it rallied a thousand points. The S&P finished up 124, the NASDAQ 401, NASDAQ 104, the semiconductor index, good at 118,

transports 464. What did he say to account for this? What could he have possibly done to account for this. Ladies and gentlemen, nothing new. We want you to remember a few things and the things we always say to you. Remember where price has come from before you get all crazy. The NASDAQ dropped 11% in eight days to the lows. The Dow dropped 2,000 points. I'm take it back. The Dow dropped 2,200 points to the lows in eight days. The S&P dropped almost 8% in eight days. That's why we rallied. Big dose of bearishness, stretched, extended oversaw.

How do you account for that many points so quickly? I can't. I don't even. I don't even and try. What I do at the end of the day, I scan with no bias, see if anything's changed, put my prowess into work, and what I can simply tell you, that's a pretty darn good loaf for now, probably get some backing and filling, and then we'll take it from there. When we came in today, there was no leadership in the market except some energy, some commons. commodities. At the close today, with a thousand-point move from 235, you want to know the new yearly high list in the market? Here you go. We'll start with the NASDAQ to give you an idea. In the NASDAQ, Apache, it's an oil, Mattel. There's something going on there with somebody taking a position. Avnet, A-V-T. That's your NASDAQ.

That's your whole NASDAQ. There's a few underneath here, but they're really non-operating companies. That's it. On the New York, before I even look, I'm sure I'm going to find oils. Exxon, New Yearly High, Williams Company, New Yearly High, Suncor, New Yearly High, Devon Energy, New Yearly High, Cenovis Energy, New Yearly High, Valero Energy, New Yearly High. the big oil energy ETF New Yearly High,

Phillips 66 Energy New Yearly High, Comstock Resources, Intero Resources, Marathon Petroleum, PbF Energy, N-Ling Minstream, all energy, CVR energy, Talos Energy,

I've never heard of some of these, consolidated energy, Helmerican Paine, energy, Sanridge Energy. That's your new yearly highs. I can throw in, Arch Resources, which is a coal company.

I can throw in Reliance Steel, which is steel. I can throw in Carlisle Company. A little economically sensitive name that's been strong. That's all your new yearly highs in the market as we go into tomorrow. So good day. I've already got emails from some of you because you really do listen. We have coined the phrase bear market rallies are sharp. quick make you feel good, suck you in, and bury you soon after?

Well, this one's sharp quick. Oh, and noisy. There's a lot of talk about 900 point A. We'll see. We're open to all outcomes at all times, and all we can tell you is a pretty darn good low here. We would suggest the day after a Fed move we'll probably pull back. Some.

As I've already started scanning, still a lot. Just remember. Just because a day off the low, even a short-year-old. strong day off the load doesn't change a lot of playing fields, but it will stop the bleeding. Backtracking is not a thing he said today that would account for this, except one thing. And it wasn't said. He's still at three quarters of percent interest rate. The easiest monetary policy in all time, except for zero percent.

But we don't care why. We only care what and what is. I can come up with reasons why we should have dropped the thousand today. We'll draw our lines. We'll look it over. Got to see volume. Want to see if there's real strength behind this. But leave no doubt we are happy as all hell.

Because we have a lot of people we know that have been emailing us that are fully invested in 401ks that are suffering. today is a great get-back, and we hope it continues. In spite of, here's what else we'll be measuring. As we have been saying to you, a huge dose of bearishness in the market after a 20-some-odd percent drop in the NASDAQ where the average stocks down 30s, which very often is the getting you close to some sort of turn. If everybody starts turning bullish quickly, that'll worry us. Remember the last rally? All of a sudden, GameStop was lighten up, AMC was lighting up the movie company.

And we said, uh-oh, if we start to see a big dose of bullishness too quick, you will hear from us. We are not done with our scans yet. We'll put up a webcast later for our members, see what we can find. But just leave no doubt a. Pretty darn good. At lows, good reversal. If you look at the S&P, I'm looking at it now, reverse back above the lows of March. And pretty vociferously today, though I haven't seen volume, I'm talking price.

Other areas, not so much. And I will tell you most of the day today, the high beta growth names, were getting crushed again. The NASDAQ was down 190 points early in the day. That reversed 590 points today. Welcome to my world. Up next, more in the markets and whatever else. I'm Gary.

This is the one only Investors Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals.

Understanding not all individuals have the same needs, we'll carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complimentary portfolio review. number to call is 888-4-22-55-9. That's 888-4-2-2-55-9. That's 888-4-5-5-9. Investment Advisory Services offered through Call-Bomb Capital Management. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. VentureX offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com

for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing.

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The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this. and welcome once again to Investors Edge. So let me educate a little bit here about us. There are many today that will be all over. Why? Why?

Why? How? What? We don't really care. As we have told you, in bull markets, bad news will be bought up. Good news will be bought up with a fervor. In bare markets, good. news will sell down and bad news will be crushed. At potential turns, it'll confound

because everybody's leaning one way. Our job is simple. Price and pattern. As I stated earlier, I can come up with a hundred reasons why we could have been down a thousand today. The market's reaction was the other way. As we look at price and as we look pattern as we have told you we had dropped 11% in eight days on the NASDAQ almost 8% on the S&P 2200 points on the Dow you're always going to get good bounces or bounces out of there just happen to be a great bounce today would we rather see something like up 300 today absolutely we want quiet when things turn too often these are just Sucking everybody in rallies.

And this one, I will promise you, is on the noisy side. But my first look so far, thinking we're seeing enough that the low we just saw is going to be a good low for now. With, of course, the proviso. Notice the big word. if distribution starts showing up, guess who's going to tell you? Guess who will deal with it? Backtracking again,

the only leadership here by the close today was some oils, commodities better, but better just Amazon was down another 80 and 90 points today, finished up 33. That was the market lifting it. And we have to be,

wary of that. What we always want to find are the things that are leading the market up, not being lifted up. We're seeing some names that off of earnings feel like they're better. Facebook being one of them, even though it's way off the highs, in an overall bear market, we can tell you good reaction to earnings, sat for a few days, made another move. Do we have an interest? Last two quarters, minus five, minus 18 in earnings, last four quarter sales, 56, 35, 20, and then seven. Not through with the deceleration, but we are letting you know it looks like accumulation is taken over the distribution. We've yet to get through the financials, but they ended up finishing well today. That said, when we do our scans, you know what I'll be looking at first?

The strongest dollar gainers. and I see Black Rocks up $34 to $665. But it was 788 just three weeks ago. It was 820 just eight weeks ago. It was 93 in December, 973 in November. It's a bear market rally. We have to recognize that. So our job now is going to be bare market rally.

and look to short into them as they head into resistance, or maybe some sort of real deal. One day, I doubt, will tell us it. The days ahead will give us a much better idea. But leave no doubt a persistently strong one hour and 25 minutes. Definitely short covering as the shorts are leaning one way. A big dose of bearishness. And again, let me repeat.

In eight days, the NASDAQ dropped 11%. The S&P dropped almost eight. You haven't gotten that back, but we'll take it. Now, back to Powell. The five years of 2.9% to 10 years at 2.9%, the 30 years at 3%. He's at 3 quarters of percent. He's left in the dust.

You got that? I was emailed people because I was watching some of things he said. I guess he said watching financial conditions. Some people takes that as the usual. If the markets really crap out, they're going to change their stance and be even more easy than three quarters a percent. That's what somebody's emailing. He said good chance of soft landing. But why would we believe a guy that's been wrong 100% of the time?

Not 90% of the time. 100%. of the time. So again, we don't care why. We'll keep that in our file manager. Good day today. It's often said after the Fed day, the opposite happens to a certain extent. I don't know what I'm eating for dinner yet. That'll be for tomorrow. We will have a better understanding of today on how things do pull back. If they pull back, I have nothing bad to say. The same thing. I have nothing bad to about today. It was just a strong, darn move in an hour and 25 minutes. Off of very stretched, extended, and oversold conditions, most everything was brought up.

Even the marijuana stocks were up. They've been down like 90%. Keep your feet on the ground. Do not get so bullish. Do not stay too bearish. And if you think this is going to to be easy. We got some Everglades land to sell you. I'll know a lot more after I double scan tonight. Not very often we see these size days. Just remember, it's two and a half to three percent move in a day, which is a big move for a day off of big moves to the downside. Remember, everything is about where things came from. Keep that in mind. Up next, and we'll figure it out. I'm Gary. This is the one only investor's edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain.

Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confuse. used relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might

someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to. America is talking. Investors Edge. He's got to be pleased with that.

The crowd is just on its feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. Welcome once again to Investors Edge. By the close today, I want to let you know oil prices are up five bucks again today. That's not good news fundamentally.

Yields were down a little bit today. We'll take that. Yields coming down is nothing but good news. Yields going up is nothing but bad news. We're watching yields. We're not even watching Powell. I want you to remember. He is under 1% weight.

behind yields are in the threes the three-month treasury bill yield is higher than him not making it up the one-year yield is above 2% finished at 2.016 though it was higher today if yields can back down that would be great news i didn't say great news for the markets it would just just be great news. Mortgage rates have spiked. We got this housing market thing where affordability is a problem and then spiking rates makes the payments higher. By most pretty good estimates and from my rusty abacus, a $1,000 monthly payment on a mortgage

has turned into $13.50 in the last few months. That's a lot of cake on a monthly basis, on a 30-year mortgage. What you will be hearing from me in the days ahead, this is showing leadership, this is just going up with the market. This is already breaking down. We will be deciphering the greats, the not-so-grates, and the pitiful in the markets. but today most everything anything that was down big on earnings today rallied except for IDX labs which finished down

24 bucks today on earnings for example good reactions well let me give you an example AMD opened up six today advanced micro devices when the market was swooning it was up one finished up eight Marriott on their numbers was up five

then it was up one, finished up eight. That's what a thousand points will do for you on the Dow. We're going to and how we have to measure all these and whether they're being lifted up

or they're leading up. I want to make note of a very important name to you and Apple held very vital support. Very vital support at long-term moving

averages and turned up pretty nicely today, though no gains in six months. And that's okay. But only 10% off the highs, while the average technology stock is down 30, 35, even more. And that's with major deceleration of earnings and sales. We do believe. We do believe, a lot of money is parked away in Apple because of its liquidity, and that'll be something the market may have to get over one day. But right now, that stock is just a gargantuan port in the storm for technology investors. As I look to my left screen, the higher beta, pretty much all finished green, but all of them are just way down. in their bare markets. So maybe it gets better, maybe it don't. My job's to measure.

Lyft was down 30% today. The high from IPO, 72, was 89 bucks. It's now $21. On an up day like today, we still want to keep your feet on the ground. There remains a ton of carnage in the markets in spite of today. We don't want you to forget this. The amount of carnage we have highlighted from the highs last February in all the froth and speculation. We never want you to forget it. Fortunes have been lost. And it's not even even in the hunks of junk. We mentioned Facebook, which is up 11 today to 223. It was 384 bucks back in December.

Excuse me, September. Netflix, which was up for today to 204, was $701 back in November. Netflix. What can go wrong? with a Netflix. Amazon, which was down today, actually about 140, finished up 33.

It's still down $900 from March 29th and $1,250 from its high in November and last July. And it's trading where it was two years ago we're not going to forget these we don't care what the market does tomorrow we want to make sure you continue to get a dose of reality on how much damage can be done if you are not paying attention they put salesforce dot com into

the Dow 312 it closed at 185 today they took Exxon Out of the Dow, it's gone from 60 to 90. Catch on the drift? Pay attention. Prices everything. You get paid by it or it gets taken away from you. Buy it. And too many people get married to name an opinion.

You should know by now, by all the destruction since last February, opinion is meaningless. Analysts are lowering their ratings on stocks after they have dropped 75%. We wish we were making that up. We are not. It is quite the flaw on Wall Street. That is always a fully investing vehicle no matter what. Come heck or high water until they finally give up in cry uncle.

but by that time you've been buried. So great day today. Terrific. We couldn't be happier. Now we'll see whether there's follow-through and if they decide to pull it back, we think at this point controlled, but you never know.

And as far as the central bank, we have not changed our stance. They are incompetent. They are impotent. And a big update does not change that. We don't get moved by markets on what these people are doing to us. We deal in reality here. Which takes us to a guy named President Joe Biden.

Unfortunately, and as usual, in full snow job mode on us. and as always, it's our job to strip this baby down and make sure you know what's going on. That'll be up next and more. This is the one only investors' edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide.

The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confuse. used relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio.

If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin's swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show. show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it.

This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action!

Investors Edge with Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Thanks for joining us today. In case you do not know, I believe in complimenting. I love complimenting people. Those that know me, no, I am full of compliments. There's not a day that goes by that I don't take the time out to compliment the hard work and success of those people that mean well, that do well, that achieve, that do great things. But as you know, we pull no punches.

on those that we we down our back and tell us it's raining. And there's many. We don't care what side of the aisle they're on. We have no bias. We can't stand any of them. The man I would want to be president is running a college. And it was smart enough to never run. President Joe Biden is taking credit for lowering the deficits of the last year in debt.

he's taking credit for hiring and how great he is. Our policies have done this, that, and the other thing. This is a man that came into Washington, D.C. in 1973, and has voted for 29.5 of our 30 trillion of debt, yet wants us to believe he cares about debt and deficits. We are letting you know everything that's happened in the last year and a half is because we came out of COVID, not policy. And we would say that it does not matter to us who was running the show.

We were not open up We are now opened up That's how we've come back New jobs are not plentiful Getting back the jobs Is plentiful Travel was shut down It's now wide open

Everything was shut down It's now wide open That's what's happened Because of that more money's into the treasury. Guess what happens? He's talking about deficits coming down from massive spending deficits. Again, we weeing down our back and telling us it's raining. We are just happy, though we're hearing COVID's picking up here and there. We are just fully pretty much open up everywhere I go. Airplanes. People don't have to wear masks. Not all, but most, airports,

don't have to wear a mask. Hospitalization, even with people that are contracting COVID, they're fine. My son Eric got COVID. He was sick for five or six days. Nothing out of the ordinary. lost the sense of smell and taste for a bit, but it's back. Now it's a moving target. We know it can come back. We'll be judicious. But it nauseates us when we have the president again. We weighing down our back and telling us it's raining.

Telling us a $5.8 trillion spending bill will lower the deficit. Telling us that he lowered child poverty in half because he said, sent out a check, which will never change the trajectory of a child in poverty. We take him to task on this day because man was he out today driving to the hoop. Back on point, excellent day today. Very strong day today. Volume on the NASDAQ, strong today. Haven't got the numbers on the S&P yet look stronger today. Notwithstanding pullbacks, which can have. happen any time, we believe today meant something. And if any pullback is controlled and rotational, after just a gross drop since March 29th from a lower high, maybe the worst is over. For now,

maybe. And lastly, pay no attention to sell in May and go away. We believe in seasonality. but we could care less about it. We just follow the bouncing ball. You have a great evening. Drive carefully. When you get home, do like we do, it is quite simple. Do make sure you hug your family. You hug your children.

They will feel better. You will feel better. I promise. 10 a.m. tomorrow I'll be on Fox Business with Stuart Varney. and until tomorrow at the same time, always an honor and a pleasure that you would listen to us. Have a great night, everybody. Bye-bye.

This has been Investors' Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com.