Investor's Edge with Gary Kaltbaum - A Better Ending Week In Review.

Episode Date: January 6, 2023

Follow Gary on GaryK.com or http://garykaltbaum.com

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Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for detail. Investor's Edge with Gary Coltbaum. Straight talk about you and your money. Now from the BizTalk Studios, here is Gary Cultbaum. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. I'm Gary Colbom, your host.

Thanks for being with us today. Glad you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening. It's Friday, January 6, 2020, and we're here to talk about everything that affects you. Lots of everything. Lots to cover. first, if you do not get this show in your city, this radio show will post it at garyk.com, we'll post it on a Twitter feed, where you can follow us. If you don't follow us, go to Twitter, put my name in, or at garyk.com, press the Twitter button and blah, blah, blah.

You can email me, just be nice. Most everybody's nice. It's amazing. Used to be a lot of people were mean. No more. I guess they realized how charming I. I am. Ladies and gentlemen, first let me state for the record. If I win the mega millions jackpot tonight, I will come on this show Monday and do one hour of goodbyes. Do you know what? You know how insane things are now? I'm going to put up megamillions.com. If one wins, Cash option is $486 million, which is a little bit less than half.

It used to be more than that, but as interest rates go up, I guess it makes it lower. After tax, and I'm in Florida, you minus almost 40%, so to be about, you'd walk away with 300 million bucks, right? I'm pretty damn sure I'd be a goner. And you know, people that know me, I am not an elitist, the prima donna, I can afford things that I, do you know, I still have my, I still wear a Disney watch, Disney watch. I don't have jewelry. That's a lot of cake. And at 4%, You make $12 million a year. So if I win, see you. What can I tell you?

And by the way, the reason why these things are going up so much is because these morons on this scam raise the bar on the odds. I once read that if you got struck by lightning, the same time, at the same place for three days in a row, you have more odds of that happen and then win the mega millions. Or the Powerball. They made it more difficult to win.

And just remember, it's all a scam. They don't pay out to the winners. The losers pay out to the winners. They're just bookies. Just remember that. Government did it to extract more money out of people. And it is unfortunate. I've told you the story how, what was it?

I was in Phoenix, visiting Phoenix. We did a show there. And we went to one of the casinos. And you could tell there was a lineup of people. These were service workers, landscapers, things like that, lined up with their paycheck, cash in their check at a casino where every game you play, they have better odds of beating you. Which means the longer you pay, play, the guarantee is you will eventually lose. that's your lottery for you.

And you know the con that they do with the marketing. Here in Florida it used to be, you never know. Yeah, we do know. Hardly anybody wins big. So I'm hoping if you do play, you really can afford it and don't be crazy. I'm going to play 10. And I don't start playing until it's after like a quarter billion. Quarter million?

Yeah, quarter billion. Excuse me. 250 million, quarter billion. And that's because the odds are like 300 million to one. Anyway, that's my lotto thing. Next, I finally got my Home Depot credit. It took years. Costs countless numbers of lives. But I finally got my Home Depot credit on my parents' refrigerator. As I said, you will not meet any nicer people than the people at Home Depot. their business system sucks on buying appliances, returning appliances, and getting credits for the returns. I emailed the CEO to let them know, you've got to fix your systems.

One of the people I spoke to said they're in the midst of doing something about it. Anyway, just letting you know, I finally got the credit on Home Depot. So next, just wanted to mention also that Demar Hamlin is doing great. That's the football player. It looks like he's out of trouble completely. He did a FaceTime with his football team. He's the whole works. And a credit.

He was going to die. He was going to die on the football field. The first responder there, I believe he was part of the team. hit with the CPR. And I gather as they at the, and then you hear, we got the audio, get the ambulance, get over here now,

bring the, what is the paddles, whatever you call those things. And they resuscitated him, but he was still in and out, but that's how great these first responders are. You just never know when you're going to need them.

Okay. Now we get to the, Crux. Yesterday on this show, I made a point to give you a picture or to make you see a picture. We told you draw a line, a horizontal line, under it, another horizontal line, and give it a little room. Not a lot, make it narrow, but give it a little room. and imagine bouncing back and forth between those lines, never going below them, and never going above them. Well, that is what is known as a trading range in price when we're dealing with markets or any asset or anything. Your SAT score, you take it five times.

Yesterday, we had told you that price was walking towards the level. low and a break below would be really negative and would invite institutional selling. I even said to you, if you push me against the wall, I would say the scales are for odds favor for it to break the lows. But until it doesn't, or until it does, it doesn't. we'll get into the why and there is a why today just letting you know the lows held held firmly held strong and that's that so this last leg down from december gross now there's a chance remember yesterday we're walking towards that support level that lower level that lower level line today. We're back up at the upper line and with a few things edging above that line. And leave no doubt a very strong day today has nothing to do with what happens Monday. And as you know, we always tell you we have no clue what happens Monday, but we look at the

weight of the evidence and try to figure out just what the heck is going on in this very big wicked whipsaw of a market that has killed people's wealth over the last since February of 21 the latest being bed bath and beyond which closed today in a buck 31 down another 23% remember they short squeeze that thing to 30 bucks just in August and I would suspect this is a guess My own opinion. They're done. They're done. For whatever reason, they cannot stick as a going concern, number one, a lot of debt,

but just business has not done very well. Sales last four quarters year over year, minus 28, minus 22, minus 25, minus 28. And we've been in there. They've got some good stuff to sell. Obviously competition. Up next, full market wrap. This is the one only investor's edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kalbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show Investors Edge.

We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee-based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs,

will carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not getting you to where you would like to be, call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is 888-4-2-5-59. That's 8-8-5-59. That's 888-4-22-55-59. Investment advisory services offered through call-bomb Capital, management. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the

premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused

relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com.

Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. It's time to switch on the integrator units and get the brain cells working. You're listening to. Hey, this promises to be fun. Investors Edge. The last bastion of quality programming. With Gary Coltbaum. It doesn't get better than this.

And welcome once again to Investors Edge. Okay, so we have taken pains here to tell you who we are, what we're about, and one of the things that we learned a long time ago is don't take on anybody else in the industry. Don't make fun of people. Number one, A, we will never, ever make fun of anybody who's losing money. We don't want anybody losing money, ever. It sickens us. It depresses us.

How much money's been lost in the bubbles by all the tout artists, all the BS, we're just very careful. We know it's a tough business. What we will call out is the scumbags. And you know what we mean by that. You can tell when somebody is ill meaning, but we also have to, every now and then, explain our thought process based on some of the things that are said out there. Now, in the case of Kathy Wood, of the ARC funds, the only reason we ever brought up her name is because we would receive a thousand emails asking about buying it as it was. crashing. And these are mutual funds, not individual stocks. As their funds are crashing, more and more

people are asking me, should we be buying it? It's down so far. So we came on the show a while back and we explained, we just thought she was one of those people that had absolutely no clue how to manage money in a bare market. And she was doing the opposite of everything you should do in a bare market, meaning she was averaging down. And as we have explained to you, we know the rules of bare markets because we have studied them, but she has not. And one of them is you cannot buy companies that lose a ton of money. I don't care what you think the future is because those are the stocks that will get crushed the most. And it's exactly what's happened. So we had to bring her up. And of course, we finally had to rip her one when she came on TV, I don't know, two, three months ago, on

Bloomberg saying that Bitcoin's going to a million bucks, and that just totally pisses us off, because she's trying to tell you something's going to go up 60-fold within seven years, and which has been trying to tell you nothing but a bubble, we've been right, they've been wrong. So we had to address that. And there are others out there, but we just, unless we feel it really necessary to bring them up. But one of the things we have to mention to you is there are really some signals of late stage bare markets. Now, when we use the term late stage, it's not pinpoint. But when everybody, when the masses are bearish, it means a lot are sold out and you're getting closer.

And there are certain things we look for, the certain things we watch. one of them is the late comers one of them is the ones that never said a word and all of a sudden yap bearishly and the more that do that it tells us we're closer because we've gone down so far we have something called also the front cover indicator that really works so damn well after a stock has gone skyrocketed and gets the front cover of Newsweek or time. Are they still in business, by the way? I know they turned into pamphlets. It usually means it's already had a gargantuan move.

I remember in 0.607, the cover of Fortune magazine, the headline, real estate riches, average Americans. and the article was about people with no money putting nothing down, making bazillions of dollars by flipping homes. And you know what happened soon after. And I can provide you with many of those front cover indicators. But then there's this. And we're not going to mention names of people. We're going to mention company.

City Group today now tells us to underwent. stocks now now after all these growth stocks are down 50 60 70 80 90% let's not now underweight them NASDAX down 34 let's underweight S&P down 20 let's underweight by the way we're not saying they're wrong who knows this can turn into an 08 56% for everything we're just letting you know after all this, now they want us to underweight stocks. And it's quite interesting that on the day they come out with that, you had a real strong day, which is really meaningless. It's just one day. But I'm just letting you know for me, who's missed this bare market for the most part, goes in the file manager. Just remember, at the October lows, Jamie Diamond, God bless him.

I'm going to compliment him to KingdomCom. I think one of the greatest financial guys of our generation. Out of nowhere said, I don't think I've ever heard him comment on the market. Said we got another 20% down. That was within a day of the lows in October. How about that one? And no, I'm never going to put this guy down. He can buy and sell me 50 billion times over.

And as I mentioned, what a brilliant man. But we're just starting to get more and more of that stuff and just letting you know it's in our file manager. Back in 2008, without mentioning names, the very famous person, the most famous financial TV personality, who called the bottom 40 times, within a month of the bare market low, out of nowhere, came out and said, stay out of the market for five years. Whoa. Bottom, bottom, bottom, bottom, bottom, bottom, bottom. Market keeps going lower, lower, lower, lower.

Oh, stay out of market for five years. A month later at bottoms. Oh, and by the way, he took credit for the bottom after that. We won't mention names. We wish well and we think that person works very hard at it. But you get my point. Just had to mention all this. Up next, today's market.

Very good day. I'm Gary. This is the one. best design. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See you. See,

The Capital One.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreaker, the platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need, explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, sorry, I can't talk right now, I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen,

Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones. Start your show today at spreeker.com. Spreaker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect.

Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. We're listening to America is talking.

Investors Edge. He's got to be, please, please. The crowd is just on his feet here. He's a Cinderella boy. With Gary Colbomb. It comes highly recommended. You're going to feel better if you talk to him. And welcome once again to Investors Edge.

I wish next week was a four-day week. So this morning, they came out with a very good employment number, and that thrills me. And I know the politicians love playing politics with it. We don't. We care about people. and there's nothing better than people having a job. It came in at 3.5%. That's a very low unemployment number.

Low means good. So we're very happy about that. Even though we're hearing Salesforce.com, 10%, Amazon 18,000, all these technology companies firing people, mortgage business, crypto business, and all that. So good.

Very good. overjoyed. That's not why the market rallied today. The market rallied today because bad news is good news. Let me read some to you. The December ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, Institute of Supply Management, non-manufacturing, that's services, came in at 49.6, that's recessionary. Expectations was 55.

Factory orders came in at minus 1.8%. Much worse than minus 0.4%. Both the last month's numbers were revised down. These are terrible economic numbers. Bad news is good news. Why would the market rally on bad economic numbers? The 10-year yield on that today dropped. from 3.720 to 3.569.

That's why. What have we told you? The market is about the direction of rates. We've told you that a thousand times. We went into a bare market because rates skyrocketed because of the inflation the morons created at the Fed, as well as government spending. Rates hit 4.33 on the 10-year, 3.3.3.3.

569 now that's what did the trick today on the worry of a recession and that the job market will eventually get in trouble that's what happened today bad news is good news bad news on the economy is good news on the markets because the market feeds off of liquidity and easier money but what about the Fed aren't they going to raise rates more yes they are What are they trying to do? Fight the inflation that these morons created. But what's the side of that that may be good that they're raising rates? Maybe the real rates come down in the recognition they're trying to stamp out inflation.

We'll see. But for today, bad news was good news. Now, let me tell you when bad news will be bad news. if we ever get to the point where yields keep going down and the market gets trash still, because of worsening economic numbers, which surely will worsen profits, which surely raises valuations, which surely drops stock prices. That's when. We've seen it on occasion.

It did not happen today. Now let's go backwards and we repeat those two horizontal lines walking into today. Price was walking towards the low. The range has been so tight just on today. 2% move, a little 2% plus move back at the highs with some things edging above those highs. Simple as that. And we'll see what comes of it next. week. Just leave no doubt the importance of interest rates on markets. Now we also want to let you know

that these three weeks are coming off of a nauseating December and a viciously poor NASDAQ, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, your risk appetite indices. The NASDAQ, has been probing bare market lows. Came off of it today. By a couple percent. We'll take it. We'll stay on watch as we move forward. But today's market wrap is brought to you by

Investment-Dashmottles.com. That's Jim Moraback, one of the great market timers. No gray areas with the man. You're either in or out of the market. With his proprietary indicators, go check it out. Investment-mottles.com. 700. No stocks in the Dow were down. Even the worst stocks were up today. And we have another case where a stock rallied because they're firing people, McDonald's, up seven today. They are restructuring

and firing people. Seems that's a little hobby of some companies now. But just good action, no complaints. I will tell you that Travelers and Caterpillar both broke into New Yearly High Ground today. Just letting you know, we're not advocating buying, selling, shorting, or covering. We're just reporting that to you. Travelers earning stink. Last two quarters down 26, down 15. Maybe it'll get better going forward. And I will tell you, insurance stocks, definitive port in the storm. Caterpillar, not bad numbers. That broke out today. 16% better volume. Not great. But that moved out of range, new yearly highs in a market with not many. Something like an Amgen, which has got squashed recently, up eight today, turning the corner trying to come back up. Did not say leadership. But overall,

good day in the down. S&P up 87. Not as strong as the down. Nasdaq finally a day, up two 64 NASDAQ 299 but if you look at the charts of the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 all they've done is come off the bear market low tease remember the S&P never got there the Dow certainly didn't get there the NASDAQ types are still laboring though they were lifted up today on up 700 Dow and as I look to my left on my high beta bombed out screen of names that used to lead. Half of them were down today. Half of them were down today. Not so sure that's good news. Half of them were down today.

Other than that, I can complain about a few things. Not much. We told you the managed care stocks topped in the recent days. They hardly budged higher today. We told you that the coal stocks topped. They rallied up decently today, but nothing special

and still have that topping in there. Remember, tops take time and you bounce back and forth and they're way underneath their highs. Same with energy. But energy bounced up today. Why? You know, stronger market. But a ton of those names,

bearish looking. Some better than others. So kind of split. Solars mention those. And phase down another 17. today, but first solar up 11 today got an upgrade today. And that is the strongest solar name. But in a group that's in trouble, not sure I'd own any.

After that, though, Chinese stocks pulled back today, but that's normal. They've been stronger than most. But after that, everything else was up. Strong advanced decline day. Volume today, I think. NASDAQ, yeah, it was up today. S&P doesn't look that great. So, good close to the week.

First week of the year. Up next, we'll keep going. This is the one only investors' edge. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase. bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination.

Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet? Terms apply, lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details. This episode is brought to you by Spreker. The platform responsible for a rapidly spreading condition known as podcast brain. Symptoms include buying microphones you don't need,

explaining RSS feeds to confused relatives, and saying things like, Sorry, I can't talk right now. I'm editing audio. If this sounds familiar, you're probably already a podcaster. The good news is Spreaker makes the whole process simple. You record your show, upload it once, and Spreaker distributes it everywhere people listen. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and about a dozen apps your cousin swears are the next big thing. Even better, Spreaker helps you monetize your show with ads, meaning your podcast might someday pay for, well, more microphones.

Start your show today at Spreker.com. Sprinker, because if you're going to talk to yourself for an hour, you might as well publish it. This message is brought to you by the Capital One Venture X card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. Plus, enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. the Capital One Venture X card. What's in your wallet?

Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital One.com for details. You're listening to. What are we waiting for? Well, what are you waiting for? One, two, ready, go. Action!

Investors Edge. With Gary Culper. And welcome once again to Investors Edge. What you should be doing is go look at the New Yearly High List and see what's there and take a look when you're doing your scans, anything above the 50-day moving average is good. Doesn't mean much. The O-Y-H and the oils, oil services moved back above the 50-day but hasn't done anything in 10 months. You know, what we're looking to find is ascension, A-S-C-E-N-S-I-O-N.

I think that's how you spell it. I used to be very good, you know, I came in second in spelling B many years ago. in elementary school Sheila Schuster beat me I saw her at my reunion she didn't remember I still hold the grudge anyway

and when you do your skins United Rentals URI that is a new yearly high you know what they do right industrial equipment rentals and things like that volume was nothing though and just remember when we get break in bear bull markets, volumes 100% better than the norm.

That's conviction. So it's still, you know, unsure. Why we're telling you this is this is the leadership. When we do get into a bull market, these things that break out a range, they just go. And they go and they go. And all we can tell you, for months, anything that broke out just failed. And we would highlight it for you. Just like we're mentioning now, hey,

There's a few new highs. Yay. I think we mentioned that lamb Weston yesterday, sweet potatoes, frozen sweet potatoes. Up on another 3% today, yay, we'll throw a party. T.J. Max. T.J.X. A little breakout today.

But on 16% less volume. And guess what? Sales last two quarters minus two minus three. In our studies of good winning stocks, you've got to have growth. And forget my studies. My studies just piggybacked O'Neils. Everything I learned came from O'Neill about what great stocks look like.

So T.J. Max. Okay. Oridium, IRDM. Now, that has some of up, up 13% today. Volume heavy. Voice and data communications. They're in a group. It's an outlier.

Issues, they hardly make any money. Valuation in the trees. Remember, when all said and done, you've got to make money. But leave no doubt. Boom. Very strong stuff. So my job this weekend is we're going to isolate. And due to the fact there's not many new yearly highs, we start there and then we go underneath.

What's close? What's less close? And then we start measuring, turning the corner, what's going on, and go from there. knowing and excuse the French, this is a pain in the ass market. You know what the easier market is for me? The one that just, the bare market keeps going down. You know what's easy for me to tell you? Amazon, Tesla, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, AMD, they're terrible.

They were up today. They didn't change any playing field. The tough part, do I play these things that have relative strength, knowing that none have worked hardly? Do I play the guinea pig? Those are the things that we have to think about. But today, very good day and not going to throw any cold water on it. Financials up, certain names I'm following closely. economically sensitive, up?

As bad as economically sensitive was yesterday, was as good as they were today. But Gary, why would they be up today on bad economic numbers? Interest rates. What if interest rates spike back up on Monday? Well, that would be a problem. Costco had December sales up $32

today. It had just dropped 90. And it's still what I would call Yeah Not great High was 612 It's 482 Which actually is a tiptoe through the two

Compared to most everything else And retail had a pretty decent day For a change Even Target Which has just been obliterated Turned the corner A little bit Man was that obliterated

So again No complaints Being asked about oils The strong names, SLB, H-E-S, H-A-L, but there's only a few strong names. You've got to see the rest. Remember, markets are about sectors. You got the market over the sectors, over the stocks. If your sector is in a bare market, I ain't buying a stock in the group even if it has relative strengths.

Until the bull market returns for that sector. That's how we look at things. Does today change any of the fundamentals I've been talking about? Heck no. The market held support today and got juice off of a big drop in rates, off of crappy economic numbers. It had nothing to do with the jobs report. Zero. Not even 1%. And that's the thought process. And again, if I win the mega millions, have a nice life. Other news. More collateral damage from FTX. They're seizing funds of the United States are seizing funds from companies tied to FTX. Remember what we told you?

We told you a long time ago. We think things like Bitcoin and Ethereum are not as bad as others because they're tied up with all these big people and they're trading back and forth and if they start selling, they kill each other. It looks like that was right. And by the way, that was just a guess. Be careful. The tout artists on the crypto is still out there, even though they've been crushed. they're praying they you bail them out if anything changes in crypto we'll let you know you'll have a great weekend drive carefully Monday I'll be on with Charles paying 2 p.m. same time back here and when you get home make sure you hug your family hug your pets hug your kids they will feel better you will feel better have a great one everybody always appreciate your time always appreciate

your listening bye bye all this has been investors Edge with Gary Cult Bomb on BizTalk. To listen to past episodes or to get in contact with Gary, go to GaryK.com. That's GaryK.com. This message is brought to you by the Capital One VentureX card. Venture X offers the premium benefits you expect, like a $300 annual Capital One travel credit for less than you expect. Elevate your earn with unlimited double miles on every purchase, bringing you one step closer to your next dream destination. enjoy access to over 1,000 airport lounges worldwide. The Capital One Venture X card.

What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Lounge access is subject to change. See Capital1.com for details.